Saturday’s Best Bets: Randwick, Sandown, Doomben

LET’SFACETHEMUSIC (6) began awkwardly from a wide barrier, and things did not go right in the run last start over this course and distance.

However, the Corey & Kylie Geran-trained son of I Am Invincible showed he does not have to go forward every time, producing a devastating turn of foot to storm home from near the tail and finish fourth, beaten a neck.

Gary “5G” Geran is back in the saddle and rode him two starts ago when the gelding led all the way to win by 3.3 lengths.

Moulin Miss should lead from the inside barrier, but this guy should be able to land right on her hammer and enjoy a sweet run.

PETIT ARTISTE (16) resumes here and steps out for the first time with new trainer Tony Gollan.

Formerly based in Victoria, the four-year-old mare has not won for 70 weeks. However, that victory came in the Listed Without Fear Stakes at Morphettville, where she romped in by 3.46 lengths.

Perhaps she was placed in races beyond her ability in recent preparations, but she should find this contest more suitable.

She looked good in a recent trial, cruising around in good time to finish a close third.

She has drawn well for Emily Lang.

PEMBREY (2) returns to Sydney for her spring opener after showing plenty of ability during her first preparation.

The Tony Gollan-trained filly won the Group 3 Magic Night Stakes at her second start, leading throughout, and competed well in stronger company after that.

She has trialled impressively ahead of this, cruising away to win by 2.5 lengths in her most recent hit-out.

The wide barrier is the obvious concern, but she possesses enough early speed to cross. James McDonald takes the ride, and if Pembrey can find a comfortable position, she should give this a great shake.

SHEZA ALIBI (14) returns from a break and looks ready to make her presence felt first-up in the Group 1 Winx Stakes.

The Moody & Coleman-trained mare was outstanding last preparation, remaining unbeaten and finishing with a dominant 4.29-length victory in the Group 1 Doncaster Mile.

She began that campaign with a win in the Group 2 Angus Armanasco Stakes over this distance before taking her form to another level in the Doncaster.

Two impressive jump-outs suggest she is forward enough to run well fresh, while Luke Nolen knows her well and gets the chance to use the inside barrier to advantage.

EXTRAGALACTIC (9) returns to the races following an ultra-impressive last preparation and looks well placed under the set weight conditions of the contest.

The Trent Edmonds-trained mare bolted in over this distance at Pakenham first-up before going on to narrowly miss in the Group 1 Goodwood just three starts later.

She possesses a booming finish and that was never more evident than in the Goodwood where she savaged the line from well back to finish second with the judge called to find a margin.

She’s looked good in two jump outs leading into this where she was just behind Sheza Alibi in her first piece of work before working strongly to the line in her second.

While she’ll improve as her campaign progresses, there’s an abundance of speed in this race which will give her the opportunity to charge home over the top of them.

CRUISERWEIGHT (5) went unbeaten through his first three career starts, including a couple of dominant performances first and second up this time.

He was settled off the pace and caught wide when they turned for home last time out, and while he did run on well late, he was ultimately set too great of a task.

In peak order this week, Mark Zahra can have him a little handier and with a clear crack at them late, this is a great opportunity for him to bounce back.

I’m keen to bet into this week’s Highway race at Randwick and DEE DEE EXPRESS (9) is one that I think is over the odds.

She was an eye-catching winner in Class 1 company down at Moruya two starts back before laying a great account for herself in midweek metro company at Canterbury last time out, working home to fill the minors, beaten less than half a length.

She steps out this week in peak order, and that form is certainly good enough to see her into the finish of something like this.

Queensland raider PEMBREY (2) looks well placed in a Silver Shadow Stakes, in my opinion.

We haven’t seen Pembrey at the races since she finished down the order in the Golden Slipper, but her form prior to that race was excellent, and included a dominant win up in Brisbane before adding the Magic Night Stakes to her CV here in Sydney.

A recent Deagon trial performance adds confidence this week, while James McDonald can take her forward and take luck out of it.

It shapes as a showdown between AUTUMN GLOW (8) and SHEZA ALIBI (13), and I think that the Winx Stakes represents a great opportunity for a Same Race Multi.

Autumn Glow suffered her first career defeat in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes most recently, but everything else that she has produced and achieved suggests she’s the one to beat on Saturday, while Sheza Alibi was nothing short of brilliant in the autumn, and her performance in the Doncaster particularly makes a strong case for her being the one to beat.

I can’t split them, so I am going to have both mares finishing in the Top 2, and pump up my odds with LADY SHENANDOAH (12) running into the Top 4.

A multiple Group 1 winner herself, Lady Shenandoah is unbeaten over 1400m and looks the value in Winx Stakes betting in my opinion.

Same Race Multi selections:

• No. 8 Autumn Glow (Top 2)
• No. 13 Sheza Alibi (Top 2)
• No. 12 Lady Shenandoah (Top 4)

With a view towards stronger Spring Carnival feature races, I think that EXTRAGALACTIC (9) can hit the ground running and win the Carlyon Stakes.

She went to another level during her autumn prep this year, recording consecutive victories first and second up before only just missing in both the Group 2 Tobin Bronze and the Group 1 Goodwood in Adelaide.

Having had a couple of trials ahead of Saturday’s return, she looks fit and forward enough to strike.

More than happy to be on the deserving favourite CAMPIONE D’ITALIA (8) who looks a huge chance down in grade to kick off his 3YO season with a win.

Chris Waller’s Snitzel colt takes on the older horses fresh but looks a class above most in the small field.

He’s a genuine Randwick specialist (4:2-1-0) including his narrow upset at 40/1 to break his maiden status in the Group 2 Skyline at the track and trip back in late February.

Far from disgraced at generous odds again only two lengths behind Guest House when fourth in the Slipper, the young improver then relished a return to Randwick and the step up to 1400m to deny Miss Chanel by three-quarters of a length in the Group 1 Inglis Sires’.

Ran second over the mile here in the Champagne at his latest by a narrow margin behind Fireball and looked sharp enough in his recent trial ahead of his return.

Beautifully weighted, his Skyline winning hoop Tommy Berry comes back aboard and he gets conditions to suit.

Likely to settle back but watch him flash home late.

LADY SHENANDOAH (12) is one of eight Waller-trained Winx Stakes contenders and, while I don’t think she’ll knock off her odds-on stablemate, I do see her as a huge value chance for exotics.

This consistent Snitzel mare resumes for the spring paying close to $20 at time of publish and looks overpriced for a genuine Randwick track specialist (9:3-3-2) who is undefeated over Saturday’s 1400m distance.

She’s not been first past the post since going back-to-back at Group 1 level last March taking out the Surround Stakes / Coolmore Classic double, but she has been competitive in plenty of top-level events since.

Fresh last spring she was a nostril-flare second to Headwall in the $1 million Concorde before a host of game runs including a seventh in The Everest only two lengths off Hong Kong hero Ka Ying Rising.

Her autumn was full of strong performances with four Top 4 runs on the trot, the latest a second to Idle Flyer in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf over the mile.

Her trials have been okay, but she always performs better with the race day pressure on, she’s drawn to get a gun run from gate two and Kerrin McEvoy takes the sit on her for the first time.

Flies fresh, right distance to get things underway, she’ll be midfield and closing hard.

Top 3 chance for sure.

AUTUMN GLOW (8) is odds-on to resume a winner in the opening Group 1 of the season, and despite the depth of this outstanding Winx Stakes field, it really is hard to tip against Waller’s triple elite level winning mare.

The talented daughter of The Autumn Sun won her opening 11 career starts in style including the Group 2 Apollo at this track and trip by nearly three lengths when first-up in the autumn.

Her Randwick record is near flawless (six from seven); she’s two from two over the seven furlongs and the only blip on her glowing CV came at her latest when third behind Sir Delius when stretched to 2000m for the Queen Elizabeth.

Whether Waller should have stepped her out over further than a mile will be a question that goes down in history, but she’s a flyer fresh, oozes star status, has banked over $8.5 mill and I think she’ll be back where she belongs on Saturday – in the winner’s stall with J-Mac in the saddle.

It’s a wide-open edition of the Silver Shadow with a number of class fillies resuming and, by a whisker, I’ve landed on the ultra-consistent CHERRY BOMSHELL (1) despite the Archibald-trained daughter of Lucky Vega giving the weight away.

After a distant fifth at the Gold Coast on debut in January on Magic Millions Day, she went from strength to strength winning her next three starts on the trot.

Short in the markets in Brisbane she went back-to-back over 1000m at Eagle Farm in February before heading south to Sydney at juicy odds for the Group 2 Percy Sykes during The Championships here at Randwick.

Given a lovely ride by Ben Thompson, she put nearly a length on Medicinal to claim that $1 million showdown over the track and trip she resumes over this weekend.

Love her kicking off at the six furlongs as I actually think she’ll get further, her lead-up trials have been solid, and the airborne Thompson has the sit from a favourable barrier two draw.

Weight is a query but at the price I’m happy to take her.

CAVALRY GIRL (1) is favourite in a wide-open Carlyon Stakes field and it’s not hard to see why the money’s coming for Tom Dabernig’s flying Bivouac mare who chases a hat-trick. She’s a gun short-distance specialist boasting a terrific record over the 1000m (13:6-2-0) and deserves a shot at this level. Won the Listed Lightning Stakes at Morphettville two back by 4.5 lengths with 57kg before another emphatic performance to claim a BM100 with 53kg at Caulfield Heath on August 8 beating Along The River by 3.75 lengths on Soft going. Conditions to suit again, pet distance and rails draw with the veteran master Craig Williams aboard. Does go back up to 56kg and if she opts to lead might have work to do holding some of these at bay so have her Top 2.

HEDGED (4) is the standout on class and, even carting the 59kg topweight, is one I’m wary to leave out of the Top 3 mix. Gavin Bedggood’s Capitalist gelding resumes and has a decent record fresh, but unlike the favourite, he is proven at the track. Has carried plenty of weight to good wins this year including his two-length Group 2 Australia Stakes victory over Veight back in January with 58.5kg. Third in the Rubiton after that before going down narrowly to Tropicus in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate at big odds. His Sydney run to finish off his autumn prep was better than it reads – midfield sixth in the Group 1 The Galaxy but it was a blanket finish, and he was only 0.39 lengths off the winner Marhoona. Two lead-up trials have been excellent, and Harry Coffey has a lovely association with him. He’ll be there when it counts.

EXTRAGALACTIC (8) is a real Top 4 danger first-up with just 55kg. Trent Edmonds’ Deep Field mare runs as a 4YO for the first time and should be sharp as a more mature sprinter now. She’s lightly raced having won three of her seven starts to date and looks on the up-and-up after a terrific prep in Adelaide last time in. Two Group seconds on the trot, the latest of which was a devastatingly close loss to Desert Lightning in the Group1 The Goodwood. Trialling strongly, still in this weight wise, has won first-up in the past and the 1000m to kick off looks ideal. Looks to have a touch of X-Factor about her but she’ll need to land in the right spot. If she doesn’t give them too much sight, she can absolutely finish in the money again.

• Top 2 – No. 7 Cavalry Girl
• Top 3 – No. 1 Hedged
• Top 4 – No. 9 Extragalactic

AMALFI DREAMER (3) looks ready to strike again for Richard and Chantelle Jolly.

The daughter of So You Think let down strongly to score by 3.5 lengths at just her second start a few weeks ago, settling in the box seat before showing an impressive turn of foot under Rochelle Milnes.

That performance suggested she will relish a step up in distance, and from a favourable draw, she shapes as one of the better bets on the card.

CALAMARI RING (11) resumes from a spell for Ciaron Maher and looks capable of making her presence felt fresh.

Her recent Cranbourne jump out was only fair, but it is difficult to ignore her impressive debut win on Champions Day last year, when she got the better of subsequent Blue Diamond winner and Golden Slipper runner-up Streisand right on the line.

Little went her way in the Inglis Millennium in February, but the daughter of Street Boss remains a talented filly who looks capable of enjoying a big preparation.

AGRARIAN GIRL (3) can roll forward and give her rivals plenty to chase in the Silver Shadow.

Resuming over 1200m is the main query for the Waterhouse & Bott-trained mare, although she handled this distance well during the autumn when finishing runner-up in the Group 2 Reisling Stakes.

Carrying just 55kg with Tim Clark retaining the ride, she looks forward enough to make her presence felt first-up.

SHEZA ALIBI (14) resumes for the Moody & Coleman camp off the back of two encouraging jump outs ahead of the Winx Stakes.

She faces a tough challenge against the impressive Autumn Glow, but this mare has already accounted for some quality opposition, highlighted by her dominant four-length victory in the Doncaster Mile during the autumn.

A previous winner over this distance, she also draws perfectly in barrier one. With Luke Nolen aboard, she just needs the right ride to make a winning return.

It is hard to oppose the talented and remarkably consistent CAVALRY GIRL (7) in the Carlyon Stakes.

Already a black-type winner, she was superb two starts ago at Morphettville, cruising to a dominant 4.5-length victory before producing another commanding front-running performance on the Caulfield Heath track a fortnight later.

She is expected to roll forward and lead from the inside draw once again, and with no signs of her form tapering off, this looks like another important step towards a potential Group 1 campaign.