The last tennis major of 2026 is almost upon us – and both tournaments appear wide open as the best of the ATP and WTA descend on Flushing Meadows for the 146th edition of the US Open.
One megastar is out and another returns to the grand slam stage from injury in the men’s draw, while the defending women’s champ is a step or two behind her main rivals form-wise.
Check out the contenders, dark horses and Aussie hopes ahead of a high-octane fortnight in New York.
Sinner out, Alcaraz in
After claiming a dominant second straight Wimbledon triumph, a knee injury has wrecked world No.1 Jannik Sinner’s bid to win back the US Open title he surrendered to Carlos Alcaraz in last year’s final.
Alcaraz, a two-time US Open champion, is consequently the $3.60 favourite – but he has not played a competitive match since the Barcelona Open in April due to a wrist injury.
Essentially coming in cold, second seed Alcaraz takes on the wily Roman Safiullin in the first round. If he gets over that hurdle and regains rhythm, it should be smooth sailing until the Round of 16, where Alexander Bublik ($81) and Tommy Paul ($51) are possible opponents.
Alexander Zverev ($4.33) heads in as the top seed, having ended his agonising grand slam wait at the French Open then reaching the Wimbledon final. It’s been a slow start to the hard-court swing, though, losing to Tallon Griekspoor at the Canadian Masters and Paul at the Cincinnati Masters.
The 2020 runner-up, Zverev takes on Lorenzo Sonego in the first round and should be untroubled until a likely Round of 16 meeting with 13th seed and 2025 quarterfinalist Lorenzo Musetti.
Novak Djokovic ($8) is on the third line of US Open betting – and the four-time champ (most recently in 2023) has proved his is still a force to be reckoned with on the biggest stages, reaching the Australian Open final and the Wimbledon semis this year.
But Djokovic’s only match since the latter was a loss to Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Cincinnati Masters quarters. The 39-year-old faces another Argentine, Mariano Navone, in the first round and could meet old rival Stan Wawrinka (who has drawn Matteo Berrettini) in a nostalgic Round of 64 showdown.
Top-30 players Joao Fonesca, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ugo Humbert also withdrew due to injury.
Shelton emerges as homegrown hope
Ben Shelton produced a breakout run at the 2023 US Open as an unseeded 20-year-old, reaching the semis on a giant-killing charge.
Taking the next step at grand slam level has proved elusive and he exited the subsequent two US Opens in the third round, but a second straight Canadian Masters title holds him in good stead in a somewhat weakened US Open field.
The eighth seed is fourth favourite for the trophy at $11 after his success in Montreal, though a first-up loss to qualifier Jaime Faria in Cincinnati slowed his roll slightly.
Shelton has drawn Tallon Griekspoor in the first round and could face Hubert Hurkacz in the second, while Alcaraz – who he is yet to beat in three previous meetings – looms as a quarterfinal adversary.
Other contenders to end the 23-year drought of an American men’s winner at the US Open include 2024 finalist Taylor Fritz ($13) and two-time semifinalist Frances Tiafoe ($34).
Underdone Sabalenka chases Flushing Meadows hat-trick
Aryna Sabalenka is coming up on two years straight as the WTA No.1, but it’s been an increasingly frustrating season on the grand slam stage for the four-time major winner.
Sabalenka lost the Australian Open final to Madison Keys, crashed out in the French Open quarters to Diana Shnaider and was rolled in Wimbledon’s Round of 16 by Naomi Osaka.
Nevertheless, she is the two-time defending US Open champion – defeating Jessica Pegula in the 2024 final and Amanda Ansimova in last year’s decider, both in straight sets – and has featured in the last seven straight hard-court grand slam finals.
The Belarusian powerhouse’s build-up to her title defence has been less than spectacular, however. The $4.50 US Open favourite suffered Round of 16 losses in Toronto and Cincinnati, to Ekaterina Alexandrova and rising 20-year-old Sara Bejlek, respectively.
Sabalenka faces Camila Osorio in the first round, while two-time slam winner Barbora Krejcikova is a potential Round of 32 banana skin and Shnaider is a likely fourth-round opponent.
Big guns hit North American swing running
The other two most recent women’s US Open winners, Iga Swiatek (2022) and Coco Gauff (2023), are on the second line of betting at $6.
After a disappointing third-round exit in her Wimbledon title defence, Swiatek has tuned up for the US Open in style, winning the Canadian Masters with a win over world No.2 Elena Rybakina ($15) and reaching the Cincinnati Masters semis.
Gauff made the semis in Toronto and took out the title in Cincinnati by beating third-ranked Pegula ($13).
Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka’s ($12) career-best runs at the French Open and Wimbledon recently have put her in the frame to reprise her 2018 and 2020 heroics, when she took out the US Open. She reached the semis in New York last year in her deepest slam run in more than four years.
Osaka looked good in reaching the Canadian Masters quarters, going down in a tight three-setter to Rybakina.
Recent first-time slam winners, French Open champion Mirra Andreeva ($15) and Wimbledon victor Linda Noskova ($29) sit in the next tier of contenders. Marta Kostyuk ($23) – a semifinalist in the past two majors – and 2025 US Open runner-up Anisimova ($19) are other top-value options.
World No.12 Victoria Mboko and top-50 players Hailey Baptiste, 2021 champion Emma Raducanu and Jacqueline Cristian are among a hefty contingent of withdrawals from the women’s draw.
De Minaur, Joint fly Aussie flag
World No.7 Alex de Minaur has enjoyed some of his finest hours at the US Open, reaching the quarterfinals in New York in 2020, 2024 and 2025 – losing a marathon four-setter to Felix Auger-Aliassime last year.
Bowing out in Wimbledon’s Round of 16 to Flavio Cobolli, it’s been a modest start to the hard-court swing for Australia’s top player, however.
‘Demon’, rated a $51 US Open chance, lost to Nakashima in the Citi Open quarters, Cameron Norrie the third round of the Canadian Masters and Arthur Fils in the Round of 16 in Cincinnati.
Set to face a qualifier in the first round, de Minaur has a straightforward run to the fourth round, where former finalist Casper Ruud and 12th seed Rafael Jodar ($13) (who takes on dogged but injury-prone Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis first up) loom as potential opponents.
Elsewhere, Alexei Popyrin and Aleksandar Vukic also have the luxury of a first-round clash with a qualifier.
Popyrin could meet Zverev in the third round, while Adam Walton and James Duckworth – who have Yibing Wu and Matteo Arnaldi, respectively, in the first round – could clash in the Round of 64 for the right to face Alcaraz.
With Ajla Tomljanovic out injured, Maya Joint ($301) is arguably the strongest Australian hope in the women’s draw but has a tough first-up assignment against Liudmila Samsonova – who eliminated her in Toronto recently – while Elina Svitolina looms in the second round.
Daria Kasatkina takes on fellow former top-10 player Paula Badosa in the first round, with the winner likely to meet Gauff. Kim Birrell, Taylah Preston and Talia Gibson are all searching for their maiden US Open wins.