After one of the most closely-fought opening NRL finals weekends on record – with all four matches decided by 10 points or less – the playoffs move onto a massive sudden-death semi-final weekend.
Sydney Roosters and Cronulla Sharks resume a busy finals rivalry on Saturday night, while the Warriors and Newcastle Knights are preparing for a historic showdown at Eden Park on Sunday.
Read on for our full 2026 NRL Semi Finals preview, tips and best bets!
Two teams with a penchant for finals underachievement, the Roosters and Sharks square off in the post-season for the third time in four years.
FORM: The Roosters are on a four-match losing streak, but their performance in a 19-12 loss to minor premier Penrith ranks among their best of the season – only falling behind in the last 10 minutes.
The Sharks limped into the finals with four losses from their last five games, but they did enough to subdue the eighth-placed Cowboys 26-16 in a home elimination final.
INS AND OUTS: A late withdrawal from the qualifying final, Angus Chrichton has been named to return again on the Roosters’ interchange. Salesi Foketi has been cleared of concussion and starts in the second-row in the place of Egan Butcher, who is ruled out with a head knock.
The Sharks’ only change sees interchange hooker Jayden Berrell come onto the bench to replace Niwhai Peru.
KEY MATCH-UP: Daly Cherry-Evans ultimately came up short in his first game in the No.7 since Sam Walker went down. His individual showdown with Nicho Hynes, who scored a crucial try last week but has a tendency to go missing in big games, will be vital here.
HISTORY: The Roosters have won 11 of their last 15 against the Sharks, including wins in Perth (34-22) and at Allianz Stadium (27-8) this season.
But the Sharks won the clubs’ elimination final last year 20-10. The Roosters won a 13-12 elimination final thriller in 2023.
KEY STAT: Ronaldo Mulitalo has scored nine tries in 10 games against the Roosters. Opposing winger Mark Nawaqanitawase has crossed four times in five games against the Sharks.
VERDICT: It would be dubious to declare Cronulla is back in form after last week’s elimination win over North Queensland, always looking relatively in control but struggling to put one of the less imposing eighth-placed teams of recent years to the sword despite enjoying 54 percent possession.
Importantly, Braydon Trindall made a successful return – though more will be required of him and Hynes across 80 minutes to topple the Roosters. Addin Fonua-Blake provided positive signs ahead of an ominous middle-forward battle with a stacked Tricolours pack.
After a recent decline, the Roosters showed immense backbone to recover from an early onslaught and hold at least a share of the lead for an hour of Sunday’s qualifying final against the Penrith machine.
DCE and James Tedesco arguably fell short of expectations, but the overall character of the performance and the strike provided by the likes of Nawaqanitawase and Robert Toia will have the Sharks on high alert.
The Sharks are certainly not without hope, and they used momentum to eliminate minor premier Canberra at this stage last season.
But their best football of 2026 seems a long way behind them still, while the Roosters hinted at another level last week that should carry them through to a prelim against the Dolphins.
Tip: Back the Roosters to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.80
SGM: ROOSTERS -7.5 / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / MARK NAWAQANITAWASE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $40.01
After a jarring qualifying final loss at home, the Warriors regroup to take on a plucky Knights side in front of nearly 50,000 fans at rugby union stronghold Eden Park.
FORM: The Warriors’ form tapered off towards the end of the regular season, despite finishing on a six-match winning streak. They built a 16-8 lead against the Dolphins last week but crumbled in the last 20 minutes to go down 26-16.
The Knights lost their last two regular-season games but out-enthused Souths 20-10 in last Friday’s elimination final, despite heading into the match without front-rowers Jacob Saifiti (suspension) and Trey Mooney (injury).
INS AND OUTS: The only change to the Warriors’ 17 sees Eddie Ieremia-Toeava come back in for Jackson Ford, whose return from a pec injury layoff lasted just 25 minutes due to an ankle injury.
The Warriors are sweating on the availability of three-quarter line duo Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Leka Halasima, who have both been named in the reserves.
The Knights have named an unchanged 19-man squad, with Tyson Frizell and Cody Hopwood again to line up in the front-row. Dylan Lucas – who broke his ankle eight weeks ago – is a shock inclusion in the reserves list.
KEY MATCH-UP: Kalyn Ponga has to be the fulcrum for the Knights, getting as many touches as possible and being the link on the edge to their potent outside backs. Opposing No.1 Taine Tuaupiki has been electric in the past fortnight, making five line-breaks and scoring four tries.
HISTORY: The Warriors have won their last four against Newcastle, including an emphatic 38-12 away win in Round 3 and a somewhat underwhelming 46-32 win three weeks ago – after a late surge – with the Knights playing all but 12 minutes with 12 men.
They have met once in the finals, with the Warriors romping to a 40-10 win at Mount Smart Stadium in a 2023 semi.
KEY STAT: The Knights have won only two of 19 games in New Zealand in the past 20 years, notching drought-breaking victories in 2012 and 2019.
VERDICT: The Warriors ultimately struggled to handle the pressure when a home preliminary final berth was there for the taking, doing the hard work to painstakingly build an eight-point lead only to unravel defensively in the last 20 minutes – a period they have routinely dominated in 2026.
The NRL’s leading attacking team were stagnant with the ball near their opponents’ line, were outpointed by the Dolphins’ elite three-quarter line and uncharacteristically matched by a fired-up Dolphins pack.
Along with their own enthusiastic, spirited dismantling of warm favourites Souths, the Knights will be highly encouraged by the Warriors’ loss. The Knights boast an electric, powerful back-five in the same class as the Dolphins’, while an unheralded and depleted engine-room is playing with confidence.
In the teams’ clash a few weeks ago, the 12-man Knights repeatedly stripped the Warriors down both edges.
The Warriors may benefit from the controversial move to Eden Park – they have only occasionally played anywhere near their best at Go Media Stadium.
The bad match-ups out wide are hard to ignore, but a late inclusion or two could prove crucial and the Warriors should be too strong through the middle, though a better showing from Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita is imperative.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.83
SGM: WARRIORS WIN / OVER 44.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB LABAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $13.96
