2026 NRL Preliminary Finals Predictions

Playing in just the second finals match in club history, the Dolphins are hosting a preliminary final – against a Sydney Roosters team with plentiful big-match experience and newfound momentum.  

FORM: The Dolphins are on their second eight-match winning streak of the season, surging to a third-placed finish then producing a gutsy 26-16 win over the Warriors in Auckland on finals debut.  

Down 16-8 with 20 minutes left, the Dolphins dominated the last quarter of the match with Herbie Farnworth almost unstoppable as they ran in three tries to stun the heavily-favoured hosts.  

The Roosters limped into the finals with three straight losses – and lost halfback Sam Walker to injury – but regained confidence in a gallant 19-12 qualifying final defeat to Penrith where they could easily have prevailed if a couple of things went their way.  

They steamrolled an injury-hit Cronulla 46-10 in last week’s semi, scoring five unanswered tries in the second half with Daly Cherry-Evans, Robert Toia and Mark Nawaqanitawase especially prominent.  

INS AND OUTS: The Dolphins’ 17 is unchanged, with Felise Kaufusi and Brad Schneider the players rounding out their six-man bench. Tom Flegler has passed concussion protocols after an early exit against the Warriors.  

Sam Walker makes a stunning return from the ankle injury he suffered against the Dolphins only four weeks ago, which sees Cherry-Evans go back to five-eighth and Hugo Savala move to the bench.   

KEY MATCH-UP: While Isaiya Katoa’s one-on-one battle with Walker will be arguably the most important overall, it’s hard to go past the mouth-watering duel between the NRL’s two form centres, Farnworth and Toia.  

HISTORY:  The Roosters have a 4-3 edge in the rivalry, but the Dolphins won both clashes this season – a 48-10 rout at Suncorp Stadium with a host of Origin players missing from both teams, and a 26-12 statement win in Sydney in Round 26.  

KEY STAT: Mark Nawaqanitawase has scored five tries in three games against the Dolphins.  

VERDICT: The Dolphins are looking to join Canberra, St George Illawarra and Wests Tigers as the only clubs in the past 50 years to make a grand final in their maiden finals series.  

There’s a sense that the fortnight’s break in this instance could do more harm than good, but Kristian Woolf’s side can take heart from the fact teams with the week off have won 13 of the last 16 preliminary finals. 

The Dolphins were outstanding against the Warriors, weathering an hour-long storm to stay within striking distance, then flicking the attacking switch when the opportunities arose in the last 20 minutes. It was a performance that defied their collective lack of playoffs experience.  

The Roosters will have taken so much out of their two finals, however, gaining plenty of belief from the high-quality loss to the Panthers then wiping the floor with the Sharks.  

Stacked with big-game players, this is the sort of form we’ve only seen in brief patches this year – and it’s come at precisely the right time for the Tricolours, who are into only their second prelim since winning back-to-back premierships in 2018-19.  

The Dolphins have won their last eight at Suncorp Stadium, but the Roosters have a fair record at the ground and are a compelling underdog in what shapes as a down-to-the-wire classic. Expect the 2026 finals trend of low-scorers to continue.  

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: ROOSTERS WIN / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MARK NAWAQANITAWASE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $54.01 

The minor premiers and overwhelming title favourites take the unlikely giant-killers in Sunday’s second prelim.  

FORM: The Panthers hit the finals on a three-game winning streak and got off to a flyer in the qualifying final against the Roosters, but they had to dig deep to snatch a 19-12 win. The minor premiers and 8.5-point favourites only went ahead with 10 minutes to go and sealed it with a try in the dying seconds. 

Beset by injuries, the Knights lost their last two regular-season games – conceding 90 points in doing so – but have found a new lease of life in the finals.  

After outenthusing Souths 20-10 in week one, the seventh-placed outfit produced a courageous 12-10 victory over the Warriors in front of more than 48,000 supporters in Auckland. A titanic defensive effort and flashes of brilliance from Ponga, Best and co. got the underdogs over the line.  

INS AND OUTS: Nathan Cleary will line up despite suffering a foot injury against the Roosters. The Panthers have retained Jack Cole at five-eighth, with the returning Jack Cogger in the No.14. Blaize Talagi stays at centre with Luke Garner back on a six-man bench.  

The Knights have named an unchanged 19-man squad. Dylan Lucas made an incredible return from a fractured ankle suffered only a couple of months ago, successfully getting through 14 minutes off the pine against the Warriors.  

KEY MATCH-UP: Dylan Edwards was the best player on the field in the Panthers’ qualifying final win and has had an enormous season. It’s no secret opposing fullback Kalyn Ponga is the Knights’ most important player and chief playmaker.  

HISTORY: The Panthers have won nine of their last 10 against the Knights, whose sole victory was against an Origin-depleted opponent midway through 2025. Edwards scored a hat-trick and Brian To’o a double in the Panthers’ 44-12 win at Newcastle in Round 8 this season.  

KEY STAT: Brian To’o boasts nine tries in nine appearances against the Knights. Dom Young and Greg Marzhew have just one try between them in 11 combined games for the Knights against the Panthers.   

The Panthers have won their last three preliminary finals at Accor Stadium by a combined 96 points to 22.  

VERDICT: It’s a mismatch on the surface, with the 2025 wooden spooners overachieving just by reaching the finals – then exceeding all expectations with a pair of gutsy finals upsets.  

This is just the Knights’ second prelim since winning the 2001 premiership, having also got there from seventh under Wayne Bennett in 2013. Few give them a chance of joining the 2014 Bulldogs and 2017 Cowboys as the only teams to reach a grand final from outside the top four under this finals format.  

But Justin Holbrook’s side has tapped into something special this September, adding defensive steel and belief to their trademark attacking flair. Their three-quarter line is on fire and Ponga remains as dangerous as ever. 

The Panthers are finals specialists, winning 15 of their last 16 games, though that loss was in last year’s prelim, unravelling late against the Broncos.  

They weren’t exactly convincing against the Roosters – despite displaying several of their championship qualities – and arguably haven’t delivered their ruthless best since May. Then there’s a cloud over Nathan Cleary due to a foot injury.  

Nevertheless, it’s hard seeing the Panthers getting tipped up – the Knights aren’t without hope, but it would be one of the all-time prelim boilovers. Turn up with the same resolve and fearlessness they have in the past fortnight, however, and it could be close enough to make the title favourites nervous.  

Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $127.63