Saturday night at The Creek brings eight races to unpack, with Oli Cownie sorting through the form to find his best chances and plays.
SMARTER THAN YOU (1) has been in excellent form this campaign and draws ideally in this race. He has good gate speed and should be able to drive through and lead in the early stages, which should see him very hard to run down.
DOUGS FLAME (8) was very well driven last time out to nab the leaders back trail and did well there to hang on for third behind the very smart pair of Final Deadline and Fate Awaits. She should get a good run through early in this race and should be suited by the step back to 1660.
BAINBRIDGE (2) starts first up in this race for the stable of Trent Dawson, having previously done his racing in NSW. He is a horse with very high speed and should be suited by the soft draw in this race, where he can settle close to the speed without doing too much work.
MOSSDALE TERRY (9) should secure a good run off the speed in this race and has been racing well. He ran well three starts ago, finishing second behind Isla Rochelle over the 2138 at this track.
SELECTIONS: SMARTER THAN YOU (1), DOUGS FLAME (8), BAINBRIDGE (2), MOSSDALE TERRY (9)
SUGGESTED BET: SMARTER THAN YOU (1) to win.
| 1. Smarter Than You (1) J: Brendan Barnes 11344 T: Darren Weeks | |||
| Last start 4th (Sr2) over 1660m at this track, at the bell was 4th-9.61 beaten 3.5 m by Catseye Beach (1:54.00) in 4yo+ on September 19 at $10. Before that, was well back in the run when 4th (Fr7) over 2138m at this track, at the bell was 4th-4.08 beaten 14 m by Fate Awaits (2:32.10) in 4yo+ on September 12 at $41. Should get every chance from this draw. | |||
FIFTY THREE STARS (2) should have the gate speed to work forward and find the lead in the early stages of this race from a good draw. He drew poorly last time out and was making up good ground late to not be beaten too far by Our Rocky in a strong race. He looks hard to beat.
QUIK CHANGE (1) draws ideally in this race and can lead before having options from there. In this type of grade he seems to be best when driven with a sit, which should see him get every chance in this race.
SPUNKYS GOTSECRETS (7) was forced to race without cover last time out over the 1660 and battled on well there to finish second behind smart Kiwi Mostart. He may be left to do the work again in this race from a wide draw but should run well again.
STARZZZ DESTINY (4) was able to show good gate speed last time out to lead and run well from there for third. He should be able to press forward and race in a prominent position from a reasonable draw and should be thereabouts again.
SELECTIONS: FIFTY THREE STARS (2), QUIK CHANGE (1), SPUNKYS GOTSECRETS (7), STARZZZ DESTINY (4)
SUGGESTED BET: FIFTY THREE STARS (2) to win.
| 2. Fifty Three Stars (2) J: Jack Chapple 11435 T: Ron Sallis | |||
| Last start 5th (Fr6) over 1660m at this track, at the bell was 5th-11.91 beaten 6 m by Our Rocky (1:55.70) on September 26 at $81. Before that, a solid effort when 3rd (Sr2) over 1660m at this track, at the bell was 3rd-7.89 beaten 7 m by Our Rocky (1:55.70) in 3yo+ on September 18 at $51. Has winning claims from a better draw. | |||
MOSTERT (2) didn’t have much luck on QLD debut when making a wide run into it before just being nabbed late by Beyond Doubt. He was able to then break through nicely last time out, making a wide run into it to score a good win. If he can work to the lead this time he is likely to take plenty of running down.
TARGARYEN (1) should be able to secure a good run behind the speed in this race from the ideal draw. He was left without cover, which doesn’t usually suit him, and was able to battle on nicely for third. He should be hard to hold out late.
HES ALL TORQUE (8) should get a good run through behind a horse which is likely to settle close in the run. He was able to score a hat-trick of wins recently, which included a win in the Showcase Final at Redcliffe after starting from a 40m handicap and breaking the track record.
STORMTIDE (3) has really bounced back into impressive form recently, scoring a good win earlier in the week when running over the top to beat Rock Hammer. He should settle close enough and looks a horse which could add value to exotics in this race.
SELECTIONS: MOSTERT (2), TARGARYEN (1), HES ALL TORQUE (8), STORMTIDE (3)
SUGGESTED BET: MOSTERT (2) to win.
| 2. Mostert Nz (2) J: Pete McMullen 21321 T: Chantal Turpin | |||
| In good form. Last start won by 2.5 m as favourite (Sr3) at this track (1:56.40) beating Spunkys Gotsecrets in 4yo+ on September 26 at $1.50 at the bell was leading 3.99. Nicely drawn and can go on with it. | |||
LEAP TO FAME (7) returned in terrific style last time out when being forced to race outside CAPTAIN SHUFFLES (5), who attempted to run him off his legs first up from a spell over the 1660. It looked as though, for a brief moment, Captain Shuffles may have had the upper hand before Leap To Fame kicked into another gear and just cruised on by, running through the line powerfully and winning with authority, rating a brilliant 1.49.1 mile rate. This looks an easier assignment in this race and it appears the only question is times and margins.
TIMS A TROOPER (5) was able to show enough speed to drive through and lead last time out in a race where they went a frantic tempo, setting it up for DASHING (6) to run over the top late. He is likely to be driven a touch more conservatively early this time and can look to be running on late.
DASHING (6) was able to return nicely from a spell last time out when getting back and being suited by a frantic tempo, which allowed him to run over the top late and beat Manila Playboy. He is a horse with relatively good gate speed and from a wide draw has options in the early stages of this race.
DISTRICT ATTORNEY (4) secured a good run last time out behind Captain Shuffles when battling on reasonably for fourth. If he could zip across early in this race he would have rough top-three claims and reasonable top-four claims.
SELECTIONS: LEAP TO FAME (7), TIMS A TROOPER (5), DASHING (6), DISTRICT ATTORNEY (4)
SUGGESTED BET: TIMS A TROOPER (5) to win.
| 5. Tims A Trooper (5) J: Grant Dixon 02336 T: Grant Dixon | |||
| Last start 6th (Fr1) over 2138m after showing early speed at this track, at the bell was 6th-2.13 beaten 12 m by Dashing (2:30.80) in 4yo+ on September 19 at $4.80. Before that, a good run when 3rd (Fr2) over 1660m at this track was 3rd-8.84 at the bell, beaten 7 m by Attachment (1:54.60) in 4yo+ on September 12 at $6.50. Trifecta hope. | |||
NEXT TO ME (1) should have the gate speed to drive through and lead this from the ideal draw. He secured a good run last time out in a very strong race taken out by Our Rocky and wasn’t beaten too far there. He should run well.
JOHN WAYNE (4) drew poorly last time out when running a good fourth at this track. He was very good winning recently over the 2040 at Redcliffe. He should be suited by the distance of this race and looks to have good each-way claims.
BETTOR CHEER (9) was forced to make a very wide run into it last start and was making up good ground into second. He should get a good run off the speed and can be running on late again.
ROCK HAMMER (3) led last time out and may have just gone a bit too fast out in front when being run down by Stormtide after rolling along throughout. He should settle close from a low front row draw and has claims with the right run.
SELECTIONS: NEXT TO ME (1), JOHN WAYNE (4), BETTOR CHEER (9), ROCK HAMMER (3)
SUGGESTED BET: NEXT TO ME (1) to win.
| 1. Next To Me Nz (1) J: Pete McMullen 23406 T: Anthony Gorman | |||
| Recent form below what he is capable of. Last start 6th (Fr3) over 1660m at this track was 6th-4.3 at the bell, beaten 7 m by Our Rocky (1:55.70) on September 26 at $151. The run before 11th (Fr4) over 2138m after being wide early at this track, at the bell was 11th-2.34 beaten 14 m by Loch Lomond (2:35.50) in 4yo+ on September 19 at $13. The ace draw can see him turn his form around. | |||
SALLY BIGTIME (7) drew poorly last time out and was left without cover there, battling on well for third behind Golden Fire and Tremendous Sensation. She draws poorly again this time but finds a much weaker race and should be able to settle close enough and run well from there.
LUVARESCHS (1) has moderate gate speed and should be able to drive through and hold a prominent position early. She has been unlucky to bump into Golden Fire on a number of occasions this campaign and could be suited finding a race without her this time.
ISLA ROCHELLE (2) has a great draw in this race to settle close enough without doing too much work in the early stages. She was an impressive winner, rating good time at this track three starts ago when running over the top late.
DEBBIE LINCOLN (3) returns from a spell in this race, having trialled up nicely and won a recent trial. She has high speed and should go well from a low draw where she can settle close in this race.
SELECTIONS: SALLY BIGTIME (7), LUVARESCHS (1), ISLA ROCHELLE (2), DEBBIE LINCOLN (3)
SUGGESTED BET: SALLY BIGTIME (7) to win.
| 7. Sally Bigtime (7) J: Tom Callaghan 32113 T: T M Callaghan | |||
| Last start game effort when 3rd (Fr6) over 1660m after racing wide at this track, at the bell was 3rd-3.82 beaten 1.75 m by Golden Fire (1:57.40) in 4yo+ on September 19 at $3.70. Two runs back won by a neck as favourite after showing early speed, (Fr5) at this track (2:33.00) beating Golden Fire in 4yo+ on September 12 at $2.25 at the bell was leading 4.33. Smart mare who can continue the strong form. | |||
GOLDEN SUNSET (1) should be able to drive through and lead in this race. She was excellent last time out when running over the top to score a nice win. She should run well again in this race.
KEAYANG STUKA (5) has recently changed stables and starts first up in this race. He ran fourth two starts ago in the first round of heats of the Inter Dominion after starting one of the favourites in a race taken out by Lovemeto. He looks well placed in this race.
PINNIE (2) looks likely to get a very economical run in this race just behind the speed. She sat close to the speed last time out in a race taken out by key rival GOLDEN SUNSET (1) from the stand start.
LOVE GUN (3) should get a good run just off the speed in this race. He was forced to race without cover last time out and could be better suited with a softer run.
SELECTIONS: GOLDEN SUNSET (1), KEAYANG STUKA (5), PINNIE (2), LOVE GUN (3)
SUGGESTED BET: GOLDEN SUNSET (1) to win.
| 1. Golden Sunset (1) J: Nathan Dawson 559×1 T: Shawn Grimsey | |||
| Resumed from a 70-day break with a strong win by a nose (30m) at this track (2:40.90) beating Hide And Seek in 4yo+ on September 26 at $3.70 at the bell was leading 11.43. The ace draw could see her strike again. | |||
FEAR THE PAIN (1) has good gate speed and should be able to drive through and lead in the early stages of this race. She was left without cover last time out and wasn’t suited by that run in a race taken out by Golden Shooz, which was dominated by runners on the pegs.
THE LADY DIOR (4) was able to work to the lead two starts ago and rated good time there when finishing second behind Harperville. She should settle close enough in this race from the front row draw and looks to find a suitable race.
SO MANY MOMENTS (8) should get a good run through in this race behind a gate speed horse. She ran a good second two starts ago behind Miss Bay King Cole and with a similar effort she should run well again.
PRINCESS OF SAVOY (3) was seemingly a touch disappointing on QLD debut, finishing sixth after securing a soft run on the pegs. She is likely to have derived benefit from the outing and can run a better race second up.
SELECTIONS: FEAR THE PAIN (1), THE LADY DIOR (4), SO MANY MOMENTS (8), PRINCESS OF SAVOY (3)
SUGGESTED BET: FEAR THE PAIN (1) to win.
| 1. Fear The Pain Nz (1) J: Pete McMullen 68426 T: Ron Sallis | |||
| Last start was well beaten into sixth behind Golden Shooz at this track over 2138m in a 4yo+ on September 26 at $13. Performed better the start before with a solid effort when 2nd (Sr1) over 1660m at this track, at the bell was 2nd-4.74 beaten a head by Racana (1:55.60) in 4yo+ on September 5 at $12. Gets the ace draw so can be right in the thick of things. | |||