Race day update, Tuesday 3 November: Trustyourinstinct runs in Race 7 at 3:00pm AEDT from barrier 18 with James McDonald aboard on 57kg. Flemington is rated Soft 5 after the 6am inspection, with the rail out 3 metres, and his rain-affected record is 11 starts for 3 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Asterix was scratched by stewards this morning, so 23 horses run.
Trustyourinstinct (IRE) is Joseph O’Brien’s Curragh Cup winner, and he’s number 2 in the final field for the Group 1 $10.2 million Melbourne Cup over 3200m at Flemington on Tuesday, November 3. He jumps from barrier 18 with James McDonald aboard, and Ladbrokes has him at $8 win and $3.20 place, second in the Melbourne Cup market behind Point of Law.
- Number: 2
- Ladbrokes price: $8 win, $3.20 place
- Barrier: 18
- Jockey: James McDonald
- Weight: 57kg
- Trainer: Joseph O’Brien (County Kilkenny, Ireland)
- Owner: JP McManus
- Entry: not ballot-exempt; made the final field of 24
- Age: 7YO chestnut gelding
- Bred: Ireland (IRE), by Churchill out of Gussy Goose
- Career record: 25 starts: 9-6-3, including hurdles
- Wet track record: 11 starts: 3-2-2 (Soft and Heavy, includes overseas and hurdles runs)
- Dry track record: 14 starts: 6-4-1 (Good, includes overseas and hurdles runs)
- Winning distances: 1800m to 2800m on the flat, plus 3200m over hurdles
- Career best win: Curragh Cup (G2, 2800m)
- Last start: 4th in the Irish St Leger, 13 September 2026
- Race: Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Flemington, Race 7, 3:00pm AEDT, 3200m, Group 1 handicap.
| 2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 | |||
| Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too. | |||
Punters can find every runner, jockey and weight in the full Melbourne Cup field.
Trustyourinstinct Melbourne Cup Odds & Market Moves
Punters have come for Trustyourinstinct in the Ladbrokes Melbourne Cup market, and he’s second only to Point of Law ($6.50). The Ladbrokes futures fluctuations ahead of the final field had him at $17 before he firmed through $13, $11, $10 and $9 to $8, then eased back out to $9. He was $9 win and $3 place with Ladbrokes before the final field was declared, and he’s $8 win and $3.20 place now, after easing from $6.50 in the race-day market.
He’s got 57kg in the handicap.
His price can still move before the jump:
- Barrier: he jumps from barrier 18 in a field of 24.
- Track conditions: a wet forecast for Flemington can shift his price.
- Late scratchings: there are no emergencies in the Melbourne Cup, so late scratchings are not replaced.
Punters can see prices for the rest of the field in the Melbourne Cup odds.
Trustyourinstinct Form: Last Five Starts
Trustyourinstinct has won two of his last five starts, including the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2800m in July.
13 Sep 2026, Irish St Leger (G1): ran fourth to Scandinavia at The Curragh under Declan McDonogh.
19 Jul 2026, Curragh Cup (G2): he came from last in a six-horse field and swooped down the outside to beat Happy Pharoah by 0.8 lengths under Declan McDonogh.
28 Jun 2026, International Stakes (G3): ran second, 0.8 lengths behind Purview, under Joseph Sheridan.
| Date | Track | Race | Distance | Result | Margin | Jockey | Going |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | Curragh | Irish St Leger (G1) | 2816m | 4th | 4.5L | Declan McDonogh | Good (Irish rating) |
| 19 Jul 2026 | Curragh | Curragh Cup (G2) | 2816m | 1st | 0.8L | Declan McDonogh | Good to Firm (Irish rating) |
| 28 Jun 2026 | Curragh | International Stakes (G3) | 2011m | 2nd | 0.8L | Joseph Sheridan | Good (Irish rating) |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Gowran Park | Conditions race | 1810m | 1st | 1.5L | Dylan Browne McMonagle | Yielding (Irish rating) |
| 23 May 2026 | Curragh | Orby Stakes (Listed) | 2414m | 2nd | 6.0L | Declan McDonogh | Good (Irish rating) |
Trustyourinstinct Career Record
- Career: 25 starts, 9 wins, 6 seconds, 3 thirds, $725,994 prize money, including his runs over hurdles
- 2400m and beyond on the flat: 6 starts, 3 wins (Curragh Cup 2800m, Orby Stakes 2400m in May 2025, Leopardstown Group 3 2400m in September 2024) and a second
- 3200m on the flat: no starts
- Flemington: no starts
- Soft or Heavy ground on the flat (Irish ratings): 4 starts, one placing (3rd in the Devoy Stakes at Naas on Soft to Heavy, March 2025)
He’s had two starts at 3200m for one win, both over hurdles in Ireland. He won a maiden hurdle at Tramore in May 2024 and ran fourth over hurdles at Fairyhouse in January 2024. His longest run on the flat is 2800m.
Trustyourinstinct Melbourne Cup Credentials at 3200m
He’s won the Curragh Cup, and so did O’Brien’s two Melbourne Cup winners, Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020). His last-start fourth came in a Group 1, and Irish St Leger runner-up Queenstown went on to win the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak on 25 October.
Against him, the Melbourne Cup will be his first run beyond 2800m on the flat, so the extra 400m is untested, and he carries 57kg. He hasn’t raced at Flemington, and he comes into the race seven weeks after the Irish St Leger. His only win at 2800m came at The Curragh, and O’Brien said after the Curragh Cup: “He’s at his best here.”
Punters can find earlier Cup winners, with their trainers and jockeys, in the past Melbourne Cup winners.
James McDonald Rides Joseph O’Brien’s Curragh Cup Winner
The Irish-trained stayer races for JP McManus, who also owns O’Brien’s 2025 Melbourne Cup runner-up Goodie Two Shoes. Trustyourinstinct has won over hurdles as well as on the flat.
The Curragh Cup on Sunday, July 19 was his first try at 2800m on the flat. O’Brien saddled three of the six runners, and stablemate Al Riffa, the odds-on favourite, finished third. After the race, O’Brien named the Melbourne Cup as an option for him.
James McDonald picked up the ride after Aeliana, his intended Cup mount, was withdrawn at third acceptances. O’Brien has five runners in the final field.
Trustyourinstinct in Your Melbourne Cup Sweep
Anyone who draws Trustyourinstinct in their Melbourne Cup sweep has the second horse in the Ladbrokes market. He’s won 9 of his 25 starts, on the flat and over jumps, and he’s never raced at Flemington. His name is one word in the racebook, though plenty of punters search for him as Trust Your Instinct.
The Melbourne Cup is Race 7 at Flemington on Tuesday, November 3, and it jumps at 3:00pm AEDT (2:30pm in Adelaide, 2:00pm in Brisbane, 1:30pm in Darwin and 12:00pm in Perth).
Trustyourinstinct odds are available, so bet now on the Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup 2026 Odds
| 1. Sons And Lovers (3) 57.5kg44512 | |||
| Comes here off a 52-day let-up. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 2.25 len behind Arabian Crown with 63.5kg at $15. The race before that won by a head in the G2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil at Longchamp on July 14 over 2800m defeating Parachutiste carrying 59kg at $2.60. Top weight but brings classy international form and should go very well. | |||
| 2. Trustyourinstinct (18) 57kg21214 | |||
| Comes off a 51 day let-up. Last start 4th of 7 in the G1 Irish St Leger Stakes at Curragh on September 13 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Scandinavia carrying 61.5kg at $7.50. Before that won by 0.8 len in the G2 Curragh Cup on July 19 over 2816m defeating Happy Pharoah carrying 62kg at $7.50. Brings a lovely profile and strong international form, and the man in the saddle goes okay too. | |||
| 3. Knight’s Choice (2) 56.5kgx0930 | |||
| Most recently eased back early on 14th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 10 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $31. Before that ran on from midfield; 3rd of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, head behind Pinhole with 56kg at $7. Shock winner of 2024 Cup with more weight this time, hard to see him repeating the dose. | |||
| 4. Middle Earth (1) 56.5kg87898 | |||
| At the latest run eased back early on 8th of 12 in the G1 Ws Cox Plate at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 7 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 59kg at $71. The race before that 9th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 55kg at $61. Ticking along as well as he was last year and has claims. | |||
| 5. Vauban (22) 56.5kg133×9 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after five months 9th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 6 len behind Point Of Law carrying 60.5kg at $19. Previously second-up 3rd of 8 in the G1 He Tancred Stakes at Rosehill on March 28 over 2400m, slow going 5 len behind Aeliana carrying 59kg at $7. Fourth crack at the Cup, only second up here and 3200m remains a worry. | |||
| 6. Enfjaar (8) 56kg381×3 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after three months held ground to the line 3rd of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 1.0 len behind Kingswood carrying 54.5kg at $12. Previously second-up 8th of 16 in the LR Wolferton Stakes at Ascot on June 16 over 2011m, 5 len behind Map Of Stars carrying 59.5kg at $13. Very game first up, not sure he wants 3200m though. | |||
| 7. Royal Supremacy (21) 56kg1×910 | |||
| Last start 15th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 17 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $13. The run before that won by 0.8 len in the G3 Jra Cup at Caulfield on September 27 over 2000m defeating Future History with 60kg at $4.80. Had some excuses last time but 3200m is a worry. | |||
| 8. Wine Dark Sea (23) 56kg151×0 | |||
| Second run back. First-up after two months raced on the pace before fading 11th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 6 len behind Kingswood with 54.5kg at $8. Previously second-up won by 13 len in a Rating 85 at Carlisle on June 24 over 2212m defeating Golden West carrying 64kg at $1.80. Up in trip should suit but needed to see more last time. | |||
| 10. Goodie Two Shoes (19) 55kgx8210 | |||
| Returns from a 52-day let-up. Most recently ran last of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 9 len behind Arabian Crown with 62kg at $34. The run before that ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by a nose in the G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood on August 1 over 2816m defeating Santorini Star carrying 61kg at $9. Ran very well in this last year, more weight now, place probably best again. | |||
| 11. Juja Kibo (14) 55kgx3211 | |||
| Chasing a hat-trick. At the latest run won by 0.5 len in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m defeating Kings Valley carrying 58kg at $7.50. Before that ran on from midfield and won by 1.75 len in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m in soft going defeating Aethelwulf with 56.5kg at $5.50. Flying off moderate tempos, if he can convert that to two miles he’ll run well. | |||
| 12. Hopewell Rock (15) 54.5kg3612x | |||
| Back from a spell. Finished off last preparation second of 22 at York Ebor Handicap August 22 over 2816m, a head behind Daiquiri Bay with 60.5kg at $7.50. Previously first up; third of 8 at Newmarket (Rowley) May 2 over 2414m, 1.75 len behind Daiquiri Bay carrying 61kg at $5.50. Progressive stayer with the right form lines, looks a strong winning chance. | |||
| 13. Onesmoothoperator (13) 54.5kg9×090 | |||
| At the latest run 11th of 13 in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m, 9 len behind Point Of Law carrying 57kg at $21. Before that got back early 9th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 5.5 len behind Pinhole with 58kg at $26. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 14. Soul Of Spain (5) 54.5kg68378 | |||
| At the latest run 8th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4.5 len behind Kingswood carrying 53kg at $61. The start before that 7th of 9 in a G2 The Metropolitan at Randwick on October 3 over 2400m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Juja Kibo with 58.5kg at $7.50. Had some excuses latest but this looks too tough. | |||
| 15. Zahrann (11) 54.5kgx4106 | |||
| Last start 6th of 18 in the G1 Caulfield Cup on October 17 over 2400m, 4 len behind Kingswood with 53kg at $7.50. Before that 11th of 13 in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track on October 3 over 2000m, on rain affected going; 18 len behind Cosmic Crusader carrying 56.5kg at $12. Worked home quite well last time but the 3200m is an unknown. | |||
| 16. So You Are (7) 54kg21111 | |||
| On a four run winning streak. At the latest run favourite; won by 0.8 len in the G3 Bendigo Cup on October 28 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 58.5kg at $3.60. Before that favourite; tracked the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 0.9 len in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m in soft going defeating Tempesti with 57.5kg at $3.30. Other form potentially stronger but he’s flying, not the worst. | |||
| 17. Future History (12) 53.5kgx3249 | |||
| At the latest run 9th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Juja Kibo with 57kg at $26. The start before that 4th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2 len behind Pinhole with 57kg at $7. Going along okay but this is too tough. | |||
| 18. James J Braddock (24) 53.5kg136×6 | |||
| Second run back. Comes off a 52-day let-up. First-up after three months 6th of 10 in the G3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown on September 12 over 2414m, 4 len behind Arabian Crown carrying 59kg at $13. Previously second-up won by a nose in the G3 Leopardstown Derby Trial on May 10 over 2011m defeating Pierre Bonnard with 59.5kg at $10. Epsom Derby placegetter but form since has been mixed, inclined to risk. | |||
| 19. Kizlyar (20) 53.5kg1x2x0 | |||
| Second-up today. Last run raced on the speed throughout before fading 11th of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 4 len behind Juja Kibo with 56kg at $3.80. At only start last preparation 2nd in a small field in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at Curragh on August 22 over 2816m, 4.5 len behind Queenstown with 61kg at $4.30. Went way too slow at Aus debut, could be a knockout hope up in trip. | |||
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
| 21. Strictly Business (4) 53kg2×000 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 14 len behind Juja Kibo with 55kg at $81. The race before that ran second last of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 10 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $71. Not going nearly well enough. | |||
| 22. Mr Monaco (16) 52.5kgx4013 | |||
| Most recently ran on from midfield; 3rd of 16 in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup at this track on October 24 over 2500m, 0.8 len behind Juja Kibo carrying 57.5kg at $16. The start before that raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 1.3 len in a G3 The Bart Cummings at this track on October 3 over 2520m in the wet defeating Litzdeel carrying 54kg at $8. Past two have been good, should run well for wider exotics. | |||
| 23. Zakouma (10) 52kgx6650 | |||
| Most recently ran last of 11 in the G2 Crystal Mile at this track on October 24 over 1600m, 8 len behind Surfin’ Bird with 57.5kg at $26. The run before that 5th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.5 len behind Pinhole carrying 57kg at $7. Ignore last week when sharply back in trip, he was building nicely prior. | |||
| 24. Shockletz (17) 51kg64162 | |||
| At the latest run 2nd of 15 in the G3 Tesio Stakes at this track on October 24 over 2040m, 0.5 len behind Soverato with 58kg at $7.50. Before that 6th of 13 in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 10 over 2400m, 2.75 len behind Pinhole with 55.5kg at $6. Past two have been excellent Cup trials and now up in trip with no weight, look out. | |||
| 9. Asterix (6)SCRATCHED: | |||
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