The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, and Flemington takes centre stage for one of the biggest days on Australia’s racing calendar.
The Group 1 feature headlines a 10-race program, with the Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate and Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes adding to the occasion.
Showers are forecast, so the track conditions will be worth watching. There are stories to follow and plenty of betting intrigue across the card.
Our race analysis covers the key runners, main winning chances and betting opportunities in all 10 races.
Let’s work through the Flemington program and find the best plays.
ROYAL PRESS (1) has the advantage of race experience, and that counts for a lot in races involving two-year-olds.
The Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained colt won both his jump-outs prior to taking his place in the Listed Debutant Stakes at Caulfield.
He showed good speed to lead but was pestered the whole way before being nailed on the line to finish a nose second.
He’ll be better for the experience and is drawn to get a great run.
| 1. Royal Press (9) 58kg2 | |||
| Was well-supported at debut, 2nd in a small field in the LR Debutante Stakes at Caulfield on October 14 over 1000m, nose behind Soldi with 58kg at $3. All important race experience and that will count for plenty. | |||
JOHNICH (7) has been racing in excellent form this preparation and looks set to peak.
The Jason Warren-trained gelding opened this campaign with a win at Geelong before working home well from the second half of the field to finish 1.5 lengths third at Mornington.
He was given a peach of a ride by Harry Coffey last start over this distance at Caulfield, where he improved to sit three-wide outside the lead prior to the turn before letting down to win by a neck and defeat several of the rivals he faces here.
The son of Dundeel loves this distance and, while the barrier is a touch sticky, Coffey should be able to roll forward and settle in a prominent position.
| 7. Johnich (14) 60kg5×131 | |||
| Recent form sound. Most recently won by a neck in a Bm78 at Caulfield on October 14 over 2000m defeating Politely Dun carrying 56kg at $14. Before that 3rd of 13 in a Bm84 at Mornington on September 26 over 2000m, on a slow track; 1.5 len behind Ziryab with 54kg at $21. Racing very well and can win again. | |||
STAR OF MACEDON (2) produced a terrific effort last start in the Listed Gothic Stakes, despite the way the track played that day being against him.
The Symons & Laxon-trained colt settled a long way back before charging home down the outside to finish 2.05 lengths fifth.
He was super strong two starts back when breaking his maiden at Kilmore after racing three-wide the trip.
The bigger Flemington circuit and the rise in distance look ideal.
| 2. Star Of Macedon (5) 57kg32×16 | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up previously. Resuming won by 0.5 len in a Mdn-Sw at Kilmore on September 28 over 1200m defeating She’s Loaded with 57kg at $1.65. Second-up 6th of 14 in the LR Gothic Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 1400m, 2 len behind Milsons Point with 56kg at $5. Can improve again to this trip. | |||
SEMANTICS (11) was sent out a $1.30 favourite on debut at Bendigo and duly got the job done for her backers.
The Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained filly shared the lead before drawing clear at the end of the 1000m to win by 1.25 lengths, with third a further two lengths away.
She’s since been back to the jump-outs, where she produced a pleasing piece of work and worked stylishly and strongly to the line.
Ethan Brown sticks and she should race on speed.
| 11. Semantics (1) 55kg3×1 | |||
| Third race start. Promising on debut sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 13 in a 2yo F Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on May 23 over 1000m, on a slow track; 0.7 len behind Divine Dot with 55.5kg at $2.90. Returned from break favourite; won by 1.3 len in a Mdn-Sw at Bendigo on October 4 over 1000m on a rain affected track defeating Keen Observer with 55kg at $1.30. Profiles as an improver, should go well. | |||
TEMPESTI (4) returned from a two-month break for new trainer Gavin Bedggood in the Group 3 St Leger Stakes at Randwick with a cracking effort last start.
The eight-year-old gelding dug deep to chase home So You Are and finish just under a length second.
That’s tremendous form, given So You Are has now won four races in a row, including the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday, and is a leading player in the Melbourne Cup later in the card.
He’ll have come on nicely since that run and will appreciate the rise in distance, given he went within a neck of winning the Deane Lester Flemington Cup over this course and distance just four starts ago.
| 4. Tempesti (6) 59.5kg03632 | |||
| Racing well recently. Last start 2nd of 10 in the G3 Atc St Leger Stakes at Randwick on October 17 over 2600m, on a slow track; 0.9 len behind So You Are carrying 57.5kg at $31. The run before that 3rd of 10 in a Hcp at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 2400m, on heavy track; 3.5 len behind Nearco Frod with 54kg at $12. Brings the class form and will be hard to beat. | |||
ST LAWRENCE (5) is racing in great form and is chasing his third consecutive win.
The Gavin Bedggood-trained gelding returns from South Australia, where he saved ground on the turn and hung on narrowly to win the Murray Bridge Cup.
Two starts ago, he impressed over 1700m here, where he quickly countered a wide barrier to land in a handy position before driving clear in the straight to easily salute by two lengths.
In a telling move, James McDonald has been booked to ride.
| 5. St Lawrence (8) 56kg56211 | |||
| Racing well recently. Comes off a 31 day let-up. Most recently favourite; ran on from midfield and won by a nose in the LR Murray Bridge Gold Cup on October 3 over 1600m in soft going defeating Sir Kingsford carrying 57.5kg at $3.80. Before that favourite; won by 2 len in a Hcp at this track on September 12 over 1700m defeating Ziryab with 54kg at $21. Flying, should go close again with McDonald booked. | |||
POINT OF LAW (20) is giving me 2002 Media Puzzle and 2010 Americain vibes following his Ladbrokes Geelong Cup win, and he can go on to win the Group 1 Melbourne Cup just as they did.
He’s a lightly raced stayer who has shown an abundance of talent in the United Kingdom and could not have been more impressive in his first start for Ciaron Maher.
The son of Frankel crossed from the outside barrier to sit on a hot speed in the Geelong Cup. The leader, The Euphrates, capitulated, but this machine powered on to win by half a length.
Formerly owned by King Charles III, he won his maiden at Newbury four starts ago before charging home from the back of the field to finish 1.6 lengths fourth in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.
In his last start before coming to Australia, his quality was clearly on show when he proved too strong at the end of 2615m to win the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes at Newmarket.
Maher used those races to select current Group 1-winning stable stars Birdman and Royal Supremacy. Birdman finished third in the Queen’s Vase, and Royal Supremacy was second in the Bahrain Trophy.
While he received a 2kg penalty for winning at Geelong, he will still carry just 53kg, with Ethan Brown in the saddle.
While we’re putting a lot of faith in a horse that’s having just his sixth start, he does give the impression he is special.
| 20. Point Of Law (9) 53kg141×1 | |||
| Second-up. First-up after three months won by 0.5 len in the G3 Geelong Cup on October 21 over 2400m defeating Small Fry carrying 55kg at $6. Previously second-up won by 1.3 len in a 3yo Mdn Sw at Newbury on May 15 over 2011m defeating Hatteen with 60.5kg at $1.60. Impossible to knock and looks the one again. Huge win at local debut in fast time, lightly raced and if he brings that form he’ll go close again. | |||
RANARSSON (5) has started his career in perfect fashion with back-to-back wins.
The Team Hayes-trained colt opened his account over 1200m at Cranbourne, where he led before dashing clear to effortlessly put his rivals away by 4.75 lengths.
He stepped up to this distance last start and it was rinse and repeat, with him leading all the way for a 3.25-length victory.
This is his stiffest test to date, but he looks like the real deal and will carry just 54.5kg.
| 5. Ranarsson (8) 54kg11 | |||
| Looking to keep his unbeaten record intact. On debut, favourite; scored a big 5 len win in a 3yo Mdn-Sw at Cranbourne on September 25 over 1200m defeating Kotahitanga with 58kg at $11. Last start favourite; won by 3.5 len in a Bm62 at Cranbourne on October 16 over 1400m defeating The Volta carrying 58.5kg at $1.50. Been dominant in both starts in fast time, suspect he might be very good. | |||
SHADHAVAR (2) has won seven from 18 career starts and gets in extremely well under the set-weight conditions of the race.
The Tom Dabernig-trained mare arrives here in great form, having left her rivals in her wake in a 2.7-length victory over 1400m at Caulfield.
She’s rock-hard fit and won her only previous fifth-up race, which was over this distance at Caulfield just over a year ago.
There is a question mark over how she’ll handle Flemington, given she’s never raced here, but she’ll make her own luck from the good draw, and she handles all conditions.
Craig Williams has an excellent relationship with her and will give us a tremendous sight.
| 2. Shadhavar (2) 58kgx1421 | |||
| Form hard to fault. Most recently won by 2.75 len in the G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield on October 17 over 1400m defeating Terilee carrying 56kg at $3.60. Before that 2nd of 13 in a Hcp at Murray Bridge on October 3 over 1200m, on a slow track; 0.7 len behind The Stalker with 59.5kg at $4. Dominant latest and will be very hard to catch again. | |||
BUCCLEUCH (1) is a winning machine with the enviable record of six wins from 11 starts.
The Patrick Payne-trained gelding won his first two runs back this preparation before a forgivable effort when racing wide third-up.
He was back to his best last start over 1400m at Caulfield, where he stormed home over the top to claim victory with something in hand.
Billy Egan can stalk what looks a solid speed.
| 1. Buccleuch (4) 60.5kgx1171 | |||
| Last start ran on from midfield and won by 0.8 len in a Bm84 at Caulfield on October 14 over 1440m defeating Fiorenot with 61kg at $3.90. The race before that 7th of 9 in the LR Testa Rossa Stakes at Caulfield on September 27 over 1440m, 2.5 len behind Regal Zeus carrying 57kg at $2.30. Flying and finds another ideal race. | |||