2024 AFL Preliminary Finals Preview

The week often heralded better than AFL Grand Final week itself, the Preliminary Finals bring out the best in every player with a spot in the final day of September up for grabs. 

Sydney kicks off proceedings on Friday night against the Power to make their first Grand Final since 2022, while Port looks to defy the odds and return to the big stage for the first time since 2007.  

Brisbane much like 2022, will need to defeat the Cats at the MCG to make their second Grand Final in a row, while Geelong will hope to make it two in three years.  

With all the key matchups and battles across the ground, we’ve put together our best tips and analysis in the AFL Preliminary Finals Preview.  

Last week, Port Adelaide became the 12th team to lose a Qualifying Final by 50+ points and win the Semi the next week.  

The other part of that statistic? Not one of those 11 teams before them has gone on to win the Preliminary Final.  

What does work in the Power’s favour coming into this Preliminary Final at the SCG, is that they demolished the Swans by 112 points only six weeks ago.  

Since then, the Swans have gone unbeaten, winning their past four games by an average of 20 points.  

Fascinatingly, the Power has not lost at the SCG since 2016, winning the past three games at the venue, and more importantly, the past eight games against the Swans, which is going completely under the radar.  

Delving into the analytical side of the game, the Power ultimately need to replicate their gameplan against the Hawks onto the Swans.  

Sydney plays a very high risk, high reward style, capitalising off turnover and exposing opposition through the corridor.  

Port Adelaide reduced the Hawks score from turnover and really made them work for their opportunities forward of centre with their tackle pressure.  

The Power have proven when they switch off, they are extremely vulnerable defensively, which the Swans will prey on, and even against the Hawks, they only won by three points with nine more inside 50s.  

Port Adelaide’s midfield crop smashed Sydney in stoppages last time out, and the Power’s mix of uncontested and contested midfielders allows for a versatile mix in every stoppage around the ground.  

Sydney’s issue is a lack of pressure defensively, and they’ve been beaten in uncontested possession in the back half of the year, giving opposition easier looks.  

Like for like the Swans pack more punch, especially in the forward half with more dazzle in crucial moments.  

Having home advantage plays a massive role for the Swans, proven in their comeback against the Giants, it feels as though they’re never out of it.  

Willie Rioli and Mitch Georgiades had big days out last time, so the Swans will put a lot of effort into those two, which does eradicate quite a lot of the problem.  

Where Sydney has the upper edge is their elite endurance runners, especially Chad Warner and Jake Lloyd who amass over 600 metres gained with the footy on average, a massive task to ask for a Power side worn out after two hard weeks of finals footy.  

A lot of people are writing the Power off, but statistics don’t suggest they will even lose this game to begin with.  

While statistics do lean towards the Power, history doesn’t when it comes to going the long way, and a final in Sydney is an extremely hard place to do it.  

Tip: Swans to win by 1-24 @ $3.15  

SGM: Swans to win by 1-24, Joel Amartey to kick 2+ goals, Jason Horne-Francis to have 20+ disposals @ $10.12 

A repeat of the 2022 Preliminary Final, the Cats host the Lions at their second home ground, the MCG, in what is set to be a thrilling encounter.  

Brisbane was on the cusp of defeat against the Giants, down by 44 points in the third quarter before staging a miraculous come from behind victory to force their way into Preliminary Final week.  

Geelong have been sitting and waiting over the last fortnight and will be fresh off their 84-point thumping over the Power in the Qualifying Final.  

The weight of expectation doesn’t fall on either team, with the Cats in reality getting further than expected, and the Lions coming from nowhere to be in this game, so it’s the most pressure filled free hit either side could get.  

Player for player the Lions have a greater depth of class, but they’ve proven in the last five years of their footy, they simply win and lose games of football with their kicking in front of goal.  

It’s where Geelong has the upper hand in this contest, when you look across the Geelong forward 50, you see Jeremy Cameron, Tyson Stengle and Gryan Miers, who are all sharpshooters.  

For Brisbane, pick any forward and it’s a mystery how they’ll kick, which was clearly demonstrated by Joe Daniher last week.  

It’s become their deficiency, but the Lions do know how to work themselves back into the contest and hurt the opposition with a flurry of goals.  

The Cats are most dangerous when they spread in transition, breaking lines and taking the game on to create opportunities forward of centre in a matter of seconds.  

However, it can be their kryptonite, as they’re often left exposed defensively letting forwards get separation.  

The key for the Lions is to simply lower their eyes, as it’s almost a guaranteed success that they’ll find a target with the way the Cats defend transition.  

The midfield battle is stoppage masters in the Lions against transition masters in the Cats, which on a big MCG ground often favours midfields with swifter ball movement.  

Brisbane conceded 92 points by three quarter time and simply weren’t able to shut out Jesse Hogan’s contested marking, which raises concerns for who will stop Jeremy Cameron.  

Tackle pressure wise, the Lions lost the count by 20 against the Giants, whilst the Cats also lost their count against the Power by seven, so intensity will play a big part in this contest.  

The last team to come from outside the top four and make a Grand Final was the Western Bulldogs in 2021, and before then GWS in 2019, and both those teams had to win a Preliminary Final on the road.  

If any team can do it, it’s Brisbane, with a list that should’ve made top four, against a Cats side who have gotten further than they should have.  

Fatigue may be the Lions fall from grace in this contest, but when things get clicking, they’re hard to stop, and they’ve got another golden opportunity.  

Tip: Lions to win by 1-24 

SGM: Lions to win, Jeremy Cameron to kick 3+ goals, and Lachie Neale to have 25+ disposals @ $10.33 

2023

One special day in September awaits the winner of this weekend’s AFL Preliminary Finals.

With both games selling out in minutes, fans will be treated to a pair of blockbusters in Queensland and Victoria, starting with an unprecedented showdown between top flag facies Collingwood, and the AFL’s very own Cinderella, the GWS Giants on Friday night.

The Gabba will be rocking on Saturday with the Lions hosting the Blues, a massive showdown for two long-suffering fan bases, made even more spicy with Carlton head coach Michael Voss squaring off against his former side.

It’s arguably the most exciting weekend on the AFL calendar, and our best bets for a huge weekend of Preliminary Finals footy can be found here!

The long-time Premiership favourites meet what is arguably the most in-form team left in the hunt on Friday night.

Collingwood returns with fresh legs following a seven-point win over the Dees a fortnight ago, and there could be massive news on the injury front with superstar midfielder Nick Daicos potentially available to return.

The Giants, meanwhile, will be hoping to keep their momentum rolling after knocking off Port Adelaide away from home in the Semi’s.

After running out 23-point winners, Adam Kingsley continues to lead the charge for Coach of the Year honours at this point.

The Giants were enormous around the stoppages, while overall, their tackling and pressure continues to pay large dividends in the form of goals down the other end.

Looking back, GWS won’t hold particularly fond memories of playing Collingwood after suffering a 65-point defeat way back in Round 9.

Jesse Hogan cashed in with a three-goal haul that day, but after coughing up a handful of early goals to Jamie Elliott and Will Hoskin-Elliot, the game quickly got out of hand.

A lot has changed since then though, particularly through the GWS midfield.

Tom Green has emerged as one of the brightest young stars in the game, complimenting the likes of rookie Finn Callaghan and Stephen Coniglio – who has returned to strong form in recent weeks – rather nicely.

Of course, the Pies boast one of the best midfield’s in the game, and with 95,000+ behind them, this still shapes as a huge uphill battle for Kingsley’s young side.

To their credit, the Giants have made a habit of winning on the road, picking up both finals wins at the ‘G and Adelaide Oval over the last two weeks.

On one hand, you could argue there is more pressure on Collingwood, but given the Giants are prone to turning the ball over (ranked fourth in the category) and the Pies are one of the best tackling teams in the league, this has all the makings for an emphatic black and white win.

Tip: Back the Pies to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90

Two fan bases with enormous expectations clash at the Gabba on Saturday in their first finals meeting since 2009.

The Lions have had their fair share of question marks throughout the course of the year, but they went a long way to silencing some of their doubters with a convincing 48-point win over Port Adelaide a fortnight ago.

Carlton wrote another chapter in their fairytale run last week with another nail-biting victory over the Dees, setting up a fascinating battle for coach Michael Voss against his former team.

Blues fans have had their pulses raised over the last fortnight, but with young players like Blake Acres and Sam Walsh stepping up when it matters most, there’s no telling how far the Carlton freight train can roll.

Playing at the Gabba is a different beast though, as most teams have found out the hard way this season.

The Lions boast an impressive 13-game winning streak at home, and although the Blues will have plenty of traveling support, you can expect to hear the full voice of Brisbane’s 50,000+ members.

At the same time, Chris Fagan’s men have been on this same stage previously and failed to perform.

Last year’s bitter disappointment against Geelong will be fresh in the minds of the players, and with a healthy list outside of Rising Star favourite Will Ashcroft, there are genuinely no excuses for Brisbane not to be advancing.

If there is one chink in the Lions’ armor on the field, it has to be goal-kicking.

Brisbane has been its own worst enemy in front of the sticks this year, but it’s worth noting they’ve averaged nearly four more goals at home than they have on the road.

As for Carlton, it’s all about starting on time.

Slow starts have nearly cost the Blues twice over the last two weeks, a massive danger sign against a Brisbane team that actually leads the league in most first quarters won.

For what it’s worth, the Lions have also been an excellent third quarter team this season, making them even tougher to back against if Joe Daniher can pick up where he left off with four goals against Port Adelaide.

Harris Andrews is also a huge key to this game if he plays on Charlie Curnow, but with Brisbane fresh and the Blues only just squeaking by in recent weeks, the Lions look a nice bet to finally advance to the big dance.

Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.05

2022

A date with destiny awaits the winner of this weekend’s Preliminary Finals, and it’s only fitting that all four remaining clubs take to the field in red-hot form.

The Cats have been flag fancies for most of the year, but they’ll have their work cut out on Friday night against a feisty Lions side that just knocked off the reigning premier.

Many had Sydney marked down as a Premiership dark horse two months earlier, and it’s time for the Swans to prove themselves against an up and coming Collingwood side hoping to keep its fairytale season alive.

Who’s heading to the Grand Final? Best bets ahead of Prelim Finals weekend, below!

The Cats and the Lions have sparked a modern-day rivalry in recent times with both clubs playing out some nail-biting and highly controversial finishes over the last few years.

The two sides met in a Prelim only as recently as 2020, a game Geelong dominated at the Gabba by a comfortable 40-point margin.

The Cats have won two of the last three meetings since, including a 10-point thriller at GMHBA back in Round 4 – largely thanks to a five-goal bag from Tom Hawkins.

Much of that game swung in the balance, meaning both coaches will likely spend time this week reflecting on what went right and wrong.

The Lions can find confidence in the fact Dan McStay and Joe Daniher kicked three goals each, but it’s worth remembering the Cats were not only missing Joel Selwood, but also key defender, Tom Stewart.

Plenty has changed since April though, particularly over the last few weeks.

Brisbane’s pressure has been immense in recent wins over Richmond and the Dees, while the Lions have also rediscovered their mojo up forward with Eric Hipwood in career-best form, and Charlie Cameron continuing to dominate.

The Cats have the rest advantage this week after surviving one of the game’s of the decade two weeks ago against Collingwood.

Geelong has been all class from start to finish this year, and it just feels as though star forward Jeremy Cameron might be in for a September to remember.

You could argue the Lions almost played better without Daniher last week, as they appeared to have clearer direction and intent with the ball moving forward.

Even so, this is a new set of challenges against the Cats, a side that has allowed the fewest goals and inside 50 entries all year.

Down the other end, this is also an enormous test for Brisbane’s back line, as Lions fans know all too well. Harris Andrews has struggled with the matchup of Hawkins in recent encounters, and although the Lions’ tackling inside their back half last week was impressive, it’s fair to say Geelong’s forward line poses more problems than Melbourne’s.

The Cats have earned a reputation for their slick ball movement through the midfield, and it’s no surprise to learn they rank third in inside 50 entries on attack.

On the flip side, Geelong’s miserable history in Preliminary Finals has to be considered, and there’s nothing more dangerous than a team with momentum – particularly one that has just broken two big hoodoo’s over the last fortnight.

The Lions need a lot to go right in this game and they should give it a fair shake, but on talent and form, the Cats probably prevail by a couple of late goals.

Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.10

Sydney fans will be hoping for a repeat of the 2012 Prelim against Collingwood this week.

Memorably, the Swans ran out 26-point winners in front of a huge crowd at ANZ, returning to the MCG a week later to take down future Premiership giants Hawthorn in an epic Grand Final.

Unlike last time, the Swans find themselves favoured by nearly three goals at the SCG on Saturday night, a fitting margin for a team that has been in red-hot form dating back to the start of July.

John Longmire’s side made it eight straight wins against Melbourne in the Qualifier a fortnight ago, and they’ll take plenty of confidence into this game knowing they belted Collingwood by 27 points when they met back in Round 22.

Buddy Franklin dominated that day kicking three goals, while Callum Mills and Chad Warner were also electric through the midfield.

To their credit, the Pies were without Jordan deGoey, but it was clear early on that the Swans were well on their way to a comfortable victory after dominating the clearances and applying some elite pressure.

Like Sydney, tackling has been at the forefront of Collingwood’s success this season, as we saw last week in the Pies’ 20-point win over Fremantle.

It was touch and go at various stages, but the way the Pies were able to apply pressure – particularly in their back half – was impressive, to say the least.

Looking forward, pressure should play a huge part in this game, and it doesn’t feel like we’re in for a stack of points.

The Total has gone Under in each of the last six meetings between Sydney and Collingwood, but it is worth noting the Pies have covered in six of their last eight games as a road underdog.

In terms of overall talent, you could argue the Swans feature a slightly more talented midfield, but up forward, this feels like a fairly even matchup.

Where the Pies might have the advantage is around the ruck, an area Collingwood has dominated all year – while the Swans have ranked towards the bottom in hit-outs.

Collingwood has also relished the underdog role this season, playing with a certain sense of belief under new coach Craig McRae, and an obvious chip on their shoulder.

It’d be surprising if this game doesn’t turn out close, and with some decent insurance on offer at the line, the Pies look a great bet to cover.

Tip: Back Collingwood to Cover the Line (+16.5 Points) & Under 165.5 Total Points @ $3.50

2021

Four teams become two this weekend with a trip to the Grand Final on the line.

As fate would have it, both Preliminary Final games are a rematch from Round 23, kicking off on Friday night as the Dees return from the bye to host the Cats in Perth.

As if that wasn’t enough, the Power then host the Dogs at the Adelaide Oval after only two points separated the pair late last month.

For complete analysis on both games, be sure to read our 2021 AFL Preliminary Finals Preview below!

The Dees have opened short-priced favourites ahead of their return to the Preliminary Finals on Friday night.

A convincing 33-point win over the Lions earned the Dees a week off, but more importantly, a chance to avenge their disappointment on this stage three years ago when they lost in a blowout to eventual premiers West Coast.

With fresh legs, the Dees will be hoping to punch their ticket to their first Grand Final since 2000, but nothing is a guarantee against an experienced Geelong outfit that was the underdog on this same day last year.

The Cats famously beat the Lions at the Gabba to book their spot against Richmond, and although their form leading into the finals was questionable, last week’s thorough beatdown over GWS reminded everyone that Chris Scott’s side can never be taken lightly.

It’s fair to say nobody knows that better than the Dees, though.

Melbourne erased a seven-goal half-time deficit against Geelong three weeks ago to win on the siren, a game both sides will likely spend much of the week reflecting back on.

That game, plus the Round 4 clash between the Dees and Cats, can help paint a picture when it comes to finding a play this week.

On both occasions, the Dees had their way inside 50, while they also took much better care of the footy and won the battle for contested marks.

A battle-hardened team like Geelong is capable of learning from those mistakes though, especially after spending an extra week in Perth.

Last week we saw the Cats’ forward line operate like it’s supposed to, while you also have to be wary of not only Melbourne’s history in big games, but also how detrimental the bye week has proven in recent years.

After an embarrassing second-half collapse against this same Demons side three weeks ago, the Cats look a good bet to get some revenge and return to where they belong.

Tip: Back the Cats to Cover the Line (+11.5 Points) @ $1.90

Port will host a Prelim for the second year in a row on Saturday night against the visiting Doggies.

The Power have enjoyed an extra week off after dismantling Geelong by 43-points two weeks ago, while the Bulldogs head south riding the highs of last week’s amazing one-point win over the Lions.

Not surprisingly, home-field advantage has left Port as the short-priced favourite, but this game has to have Power fans feeling a little antsy after the Dogs’ performance in the second half at the Gabba.

After kicking clear to lead by two goals heading into the final term, the Dogs came roaring home on the back of Bailey Smith in what was easily the best game of the season.

A rousing win like that has left the Dogs with plenty of momentum – a scary proposition for any side returning from the bye.

That said, Port has plenty of familiarity with this Bulldogs outfit after winning by a narrow two points in the final round of the home-and-away season.

Travis Boak was enormous that night with two goals and 31 disposals, while Ollie Wines also carved up through the midfield.

Last week’s win over the Lions was special, but the Dogs did have trouble containing Charlie Cameron – a worrying sign with Orazio Fantasia enjoying a big game two weeks ago against Geelong.

The status of Marcus Bontempelli is also in question after the Brownlow favourite suffered a knee injury last week.

Bont was important during the second half fight back, but if he sits on Saturday, the Dogs are obviously a lot worse off.

It’s also hard to bank on another three-goal performance from Smith, especially in another hostile environment.

Realistically, you could build a case for either side in this one, but with Bont less than 100 per cent, the Power are tough to back against at home.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $1.92

2020

Two outstanding games of football await this weekend as the Preliminary Finals get underway.

Port Adelaide has been a class side all season as they prepare for another gut check on Friday night against Richmond, the same side they beat in an absolute thriller earlier in the year.

The Lions are hungry to book a home Grand Final at the Gabba as they square off against Geelong on Saturday night.

Brisbane, like Port, are the slight favourites in betting, and there is plenty of value for the flag favourites to add to their outstanding record at home.

With two mouth-watering games to look forward to, we’ve analysed all you need to know in our 2020 AFL Preliminary Finals Preview below!

The Power will host their first Preliminary Final in Adelaide since 2004 on Friday night in what is shaping up to be one of the games of the year.

Fresh from a week’s rest, Port coach Ken Hinkley will be hoping his side can pick up where they left off in their convincing 16-point win over Geelong as the Power look to book a spot in the Grand Final for the first time since 2007.

Richmond, meanwhile, returns to the Prelim for the fourth year in a row, only this time around the Tigers won’t have the added advantage of 90,000+ behind them at the MCG.

These two sides played out an absolute classic earlier in the year that has certainly added some spice to the rematch.

Port beat Richmond by 21-points at the Adelaide Oval back in Round 11, although the game felt much closer than the final score indicates.

There’s no doubt the Tigers still have a gear to go on their way to another flag after stumbling on a few occasions last week against the Saints.

The Tigers won comfortably in the end, but there were certain points where Richmond took their foot off the gas to allow St Kilda a sniff.

Port dominated the midfield and the inside 50 count when these two sides last met, but it’s worth noting Tigers captain Trent Cotchin was missing from the side.

That said, the crowd clearly played a large factor earlier in the year – a problem Geelong failed to overcome a fortnight ago as their forwards went missing for most of the game.

The Tigers struggled under pressure at times against the Lions at the Gabba in the Qualifying Final, so there’s a good chance we see the same unfold on Friday night in front of a similar number.

Port, the minor premiers, have arguably been the side to beat this season, but they continue to be overlooked by bookmakers and experts alike.

With a point to prove against the reigning premiers, don’t be surprised if they play a real chip on their shoulder and book their spot at the Gabba in a week’s time.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Lions and the Cats have put on some absolute classics in recent years and it would come as no surprise to witness another at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Brisbane has enjoyed a week’s rest to prepare for their first Preliminary Final since 2004, the same year they lost the flag to Port Adelaide.

The Cats, on the other hand, come in red-hot following a monumental 68-point win over Collingwood last week that caught just about everyone off guard.

Brisbane has opened as the slight favourite in betting, largely due to an impressive 10-0 record at the Gabba this season.

As the old saying goes, you’re only as good as your last game, so Chris Fagan’s side obviously has to feel good after beating Richmond two weeks ago to qualify for the Prelim.

All that being said, the Cats are also a perfect 4-0 at the Gabba this year, while there’s the added motivation of playing for Gary Ablett in his final season.

The key to the Cats this week will be Tom Hawkins, who after Saturday night, has now kicked 3+ goals in each of his last four games at the Gabba.

On the flip side, Brisbane simply needs to apply the same pressure they did against the Tigers a fortnight ago.

The Lions relished playing in front of a large home crowd that played a big part in altering the momentum, and if the back line can hold strong like they did against Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt, they should prove tough to beat.

This should be a cracking game and it would not surprise to find less than a goal in it.

When you factor in Brisbane’s outstanding track record and at home and their ability to score goals in a hurry though, the Lions should get home in the end.

Tip: Back Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.00

2019

The AFL Preliminary Finals often produce the best football of the entire AFL season and that looks as though it could be the case again in 2019.

Richmond are now clear premiership favourites, but they fell at this hurdle 12 months ago and will need to overcome some mental demons when they take on Geelong on Friday night.

The GWS Giants have upset both the Western Bulldogs and the Brisbane Lions during the 2019 AFL Finals to date and they can qualify for their first ever AFL Grand Final if they are able to upset Collingwood on Saturday afternoon.

We have analysed both games set to take place this weekend and our complete 2019 AFL Preliminary Finals

It will be a packed house at the MCG as Richmond take on Geelong in what should be a truly fascinating preliminary final.

Richmond have had a week off following their impressive win over the Brisbane Lions in the first week of the finals and there is no doubt that they are the team to beat for the 2019 AFL Premiership.

The Tigers haven’t lost a game since they went down to Adelaide in June and their unbeaten run includes victories over top eight rivals GWS, Collingwood, West Coast and Brisbane (twice).

Dustin Martin has returned to the sort of form that he showed when he led his side to the 2017 AFL Premiership and the defence, led by Dylan Grimes, continues to be outstanding.

Their record at the MCG is unparalleled, although Geelong did beat them at the venue earlier this season, and they have won nine of their past ten games as home favourites.

Perhaps even more impressive, is the fact that they are 8-2 against the line in this scenario.

The scary thing for Geelong is that Richmond still look as though they are capable going to another level.

The knives were out for Chris Scott and Geelong following their defeat at the hands of Collingwood in the opening week of the AFL Finals, but they bounced back to record a tough win over West Coast last weekend.

A big issue for Geelong in the second half of the season has been consistency and they have not recorded back-to-back wins since they beat Richmond in round 12.

You can’t read much from that win, as Richmond were well and truly undermanned, but Geelong are capable of matching it with the best teams in the competition on their day.

The Cats have won one of their two games as away underdogs this season and they have covered the line in both of these victories.

This should be an outstanding game of football and it wouldn’t surprise if it was tight for a long way, but the quality of Richmond should prove too much for Geelong over four quarters.

Back Richmond To Win By 1-39 @ $2

The GWS Giants are now only one win away from their maiden AFL Grand Final, but standing in their way are Collingwood and 100,000 Magpies fans at the MCG.

Collingwood earnt a week off following their comfortable win over Geeling in the opening week of the AFL Finals, but it certainly hasn’t been a stress-free week for the Magpies.

Star forward Jordan De Goey looks set to miss this clash due to a hamstring problem and there is no doubt that his absence leaves a giant hole in this Magpies outfit.

Collingwood go into this clash on the back of five straight wins, but there is still some conjecture over just how well they have played during this period.

The Magpies have won only six of their ten games as home favourites this season for a loss and they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

Many experts were quick to write off the GWS Giants heading into the finals, but they have now won two sudden death matches on the trot to qualify for their third preliminary final in four years.

They weren’t as good against the Lions as they were against the Western Bulldogs a week earlier, but they held their composure when it mattered.

The Giants flogged Collingwood when they met earlier this season and they have saved some of their best performances this season for their meetings with the best sides in the competition.

Throw in the fact that they have won three of their six games as away underdogs this season for a profit and there is a serious argument to be made for them.

The likely absence of Toby Greene will be an issue, but the Giants look to have found their best form at the right time and they are capable of upsetting Collingwood this weekend.

Back GWS Giants To Win @ $2.90

2018

The 2018 AFL Preliminary Finals are here and we are in for a genuine treat this weekend.

Melbourne will come to a standstill on Friday when Richmond take on Collingwood in one of the most anticipated Preliminary Finals in recent memory before Melbourne travel to Perth for their first Prelim since 2000.

Both these games are fascinating betting contests and there is plenty of value to be found, so don’t miss out on our complete 2018 AFL Preliminary Finals tips that can be found below.

To think, these two historic clubs haven’t played September footy against each other since the 1980 Grand Final!

It’ll be a battle of epic proportions in front of what will no doubt be a capacity crowd at the G’, but we don’t have to rewind 40+ years to receive a taste of what might be in-store on Friday night.

The Tigers have had Collingwood’s number this season, cruising to a pair of comfortable victories in Round’s 6 and 19.

No prizes for guessing how Richmond won those games.

Pressure was the key, and it remains to be seen if the Pies can finally adjust after two home/away losses.

Don’t let the scoreboard fool you too much though, both encounters were reasonably close up until the fourth quarter.

The final term has been the Tigers’ bread and butter all year, but can Collingwood repeat their fourth quarter success against GWS for the second week in a row?

The midfield battle will be electric all night, and with names like Dustin Martin and Scott Pendlebury headlining, it’s safe to say the clearance tally will be relatively close.

For Collingwood, this game is really going to come down to inside fifties.

They demolished GWS in that department last week, in large part thanks to Steele Sidebottom’s 31-disposals.

Silencing Sidebottom will be Richmond’s main priority this week, and as we saw back in July, that’s no easy task.

Sidebottom racked up 38-disposals during Collingwood’s last clash with the reigning premiers, however the absence of Jordan de Goey proved too big a hurdle for Nathan Buckley’s side to overcome.

This time around things are fairly evenly matched with de Goey back, and the same goes for the crowd.

If anyone is going to beat Richmond, they need to take the crowd out of the equation, but the question is, can Collingwood do just that?

It should be a 50/50 crowd split, but the Pies haven’t beaten the Tigers since 2016, and as their 2-4 record suggests, Collingwood aren’t exactly a safe bet as the away underdog, either.

For Richmond, the head games continue surrounding Martin’s ghost injury, but they should be just fine in this game if they can spread the ball around like they did against Hawthorn two weeks ago.

Jack Riewoldt poses his own problems for Collingwood’s average back-line, however, when you throw Josh Caddy and Kamdyn McIntosh into the fold, things get even more tricky.

This game should be closer than previous meetings, but the Tigers should return to the G’ a week later to defend their crown.

Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.08

Same Game Multi: Richmond 1-39, Steele Sidebottom 29 or More Disposals, Total Match Points: 150 or Below

The Dees’ fairytale is well on its way, but one giant stands between Melbourne and a shot at the holy grail.

A well-rested West Coast side is dangerous enough without throwing in home-field advantage.

The Eagles survived a scare against the Pies a fortnight ago, but it looked as though full-forward Josh Kennedy was only beginning to warm up during his return to the side.

It’s likely Kennedy kicks more than just two goals this week, but can that be enough to get the Eagles over the line?

The bookies have West Coast as the slight favourite, but only just.

Round 22 is fresh in the mind of everyone, a game the Demons won to secure their spot in the finals, however the Eagles were without Kennedy and fellow star forward Jack Darling in that game.

Melbourne’s defence held up strong last week against Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and the rest of Hawthorn’s playmakers.

Still, the Hawks lack the height West Coast possess down front, and more importantly, the midfield depth to continually push the ball forward.

Without Jaeger O’Meara last week, the Hawks looked lost.

This week the Demons are facing a West Coast side that are healthy, and that includes very talented midfielder Elliot Yeo.

As has been the case for the entire season, Max Gawn is the X-factor for both sides this week.

Shut him down and keep his clearances to a minimum, West Coast win.

Allow him to roam, win the clearances and also contribute in the back-line, the Demons can easily upset.

It’s a real coin flip this week, especially after both sides endured rough patches throughout the home/away season.

On form, both sides look about equal right now, but the Eagles’ 8-2 record as the home head-to-head favourite suggests they are a much safer bet.

In comparison, the Dees are 2-4 as the away underdog against the Eagles.

It’s easy to read into their Round 22 win at Optus Stadium and believe a road-win is possible, but this is still a huge test for defenders Sam Frost and Oscar McDonald, one that they probably can’t stand up to.

Tip: Handicap: West Coast 1-39 @ $2.35

Same Game Multi: West Coast 1-39, Josh Kennedy 3+ Goals, Over 169.5 Total Points

2017

Both games in the AFL Semi-Finals were blowouts, but that looks highly unlikely to be the case this weekend.

Adelaide have been the benchmark in the AFL all season long and they will start their clash with Geelong as clear favourites, while Richmond may never have a better chance to qualify for their first Grand Final since 1982.

We have analysed both games set to take place this weekend in the penultimate week of the AFL season and our complete 2017 AFL Preliminary Final tips can be found below.

The rivalry between Adelaide and Geelong has gone to another level in recent seasons and we are set for a fascinating Preliminary Final clash on Friday night.

Adelaide have been the most consistent side in the AFL in 2017 and they are clear favourites to qualify for their first Grand Final since 1998.

The Crows went into the finals on the back of losses at the hands of Sydney and West Coast, but they were far too strong in their Qualifying Final against Greater Western Sydney and they still have room to improve off that performance.

Geelong have dominated Adelaide in recent memory, but Adelaide won the most recent meeting between the two sides earlier this season and their record at the Adelaide Oval is excellent.

The Crows have won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites and impressively they have the same record against the line.

Nobody gave Geelong a chance of beating Sydney last weekend, but they bounced back from their flat effort against Richmond to record a massive upset win over the Swans.

Patrick Dangerfield was the obvious standout for Geelong, but it was the effort of some of their less well-credentialed players that was the highlight for the Cats and if that group of players performs well again they are right in this clash with Adelaide.

The Cats have not been particularly impressive away from home this season, but they have won five of their eight games as away underdogs and they are 6-2 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right, but their is still value to be found and that lies in the Total Points betting market.

It has been a fairly low-scoring AFL Finals Series to date and that looks set to continue in this clash.

The Under has been a profitable betting play in games involving either Adelaide or Geelong and the Total Points line of 167.5 points does look excessive.

Back Under 167.5 Points

This is a huge moment for both these Football clubs.

They tried to keep the lid on as long as possible at Richmond, but the lid was blown off and into smithereens with their emphatic win over Geelong and the Tigers will go into this clash with the Giants as clear favourites.

The defence pressure that Richmond showed during their win over Geelong was nothing short of incredible and it is that style of football that can trouble a Giants side that is used to winning the football comfortably.

Richmond really should have beaten Greater Western Sydney twice this season – they pulled a Richmond when they looked like they had the game won in May – and they have restricted the scoring of the Giants in both these clashes.

The Tigers have won six of their seven games as home favourites this season and they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario.

Greater Western Sydney looked like a side that was out of ideas when they lost to Adelaide in the opening round of the AFL Finals, but they bounced back to a semblance of their best form with an impressive victory over the West Coast Eagles.

There is no doubt that this will be a much tougher test and there is still a question mark over how they perform against the very best sides in the competition – they have won only won off their six games against Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond this season.

The Giants have been a losing betting play across just about every metric so far this season and they have won only five of their 12 games away from home, while they are 9-16 against the line across the board.

Richmond may never have a better opportunity to contest their first Grand Final since 1982 and they should be able to beat the Giants comfortably on Saturday night.

Back Richmond To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)

2016

We have reached the penultimate weekend of the 2016 AFL season and four teams are set to do battle in two very intriguing semi-finals.

Sydney did what was expected to set up a preliminary final clash with Geelong, while the Western Bulldogs scored a stunning upset win over Hawthorn to qualify for their first preliminary final since 2010?

Will Geelong and GWS meet in the Grand Final or will the finals upsets continue? I have analysed both preliminary finals and below you can find the best betting plays for both matches.

Geelong and Sydney have been two of the best teams in the AFL all season long and this preliminary final is set to be an absolute classic.

Geelong made it eight wins on the trot with their thrilling qualifying final victory over Hawthorn and they will go into this clash as clear favourites to make their first Grand Final since their 2010 triumph.

The Cats have been a tough team to assess throughout the 2016 AFL season, but it is fair to say that they have won plenty of big games and in the form of Patrick Dangerfield they have the best player in the competition.

Geelong really don’t have a home-field advantage at the MCG and they may have won three of their four games as home favourites at the venue, but they have not covered the line in any of these clashes.

Sydney did the job very comfortably against Adelaide last weekend and they will go into this clash with plenty of confidence.

It is far to say that Sydney have their share of injury problems in the form of Gary Rohan, Jarrad McVeigh and Kurt Tippett, but they are a list that has plenty of depth and a great deal of big-game experience.

Sydney beat Geelong when they played earlier in the season and they have proven to be a highly effective team away from home this season – winning both of their games as away underdogs.

I still have my question marks over just how good this Geelong side are and Sydney are great value to qualify for another Grand Final at the juicy price of $2.35.

Back Sydney To Win @ $2.35

At the start of the season you would have been able to score a decent price for the GWS Giants and the Western Bulldogs to do battle in a Preliminary Final.

Greater Western Sydney got themselves to within a game of the Grand Final with their emphatic demolition of Sydney in the opening weekend of the final and the question is whether they can do the same to the Western Bulldogs.

The young Giants list has kept their composure this entire season, but it is fair to say that this is the biggest game that the majority of this side have played during their AFL careers to date.

In saying that, they did not let the occasion get the better of them against Sydney in the opening weekend of the finals and they have been a strong betting play at Spotless Stadium this season.

Greater Western Sydney have won six of their eight games as home favourites and more impressively have an identical record against the line.

The Western Bulldogs continued their stellar season with their upset victory over Hawthorn last Friday night and they are now the pick of the majority of neutral fans to win their first flag since 1954.

The question surrounding the Bulldogs is whether they played their Grand Final last weekend and whether this side is good enough to take the club to their first Grand Final since 1961.

Playing away from home has not proven to be an issue for the Bulldogs and they have won four of their seven games as underdogs this season for a very healthy profit.

There is no doubt that the Giants deserve to be favourites, but there is something special happening at Footscray and you can’t bet against the Bulldogs following their excellent performances against both West Coast and Hawthorn – especially at the quote of $2.85.

Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2.85