The 2018 AFL season is here and we can’t wait for what will be a massive weekend of action.
It will be an emotional moment for Richmond fans when the Premiership is unfurled on Thursday and they are dominant favourites to account for Carlton in the season opener.
That is just the start of what is set to be a massive weekend of AFL action and our complete AFL Round 1 tips can be found below!
Richmond Vs Carlton
Thursday 22 March, 7:25pm, MCG
It should come as no surprise that Richmond will start this clash with Carlton as dominant favourites.
The Tigers were nothing short of outstanding during the 2017 AFL Finals and they have shown no signs of a Premiership hangover during the preseason – they recorded big wins over both Essendon and North Melbourne in the JLT Series.
Richmond have had a very stable off-season and they head into their season opener with a very similar side to the one that took on the Adelaide Crows in the 2018 AFL Grand Final.
The Tigers won 11 of their 14 games as favourites last season and they were able to cover the line in ten of these wins.
Carlton showed some promise during the 2017 AFL season, but they still lacked consistency and they will be without All-Australian defender Sam Docherty for the entire season.
Kicking goals was a big issue for Carlton 12 months ago and once again it is tough to see where their points will come from.
The Blues won six of their past 19 games as underdogs last season for a small profit and they were 13-8 against the line when being given a start.
The market looks to have this match just about right as Richmond deserve to be dominant favourites, but there is still value in the Total Points betting market.
Backing the Under was a profitable betting play in games involved either of these teams last season and it would not surprise if this was a fairly low-scoring affair.
Back Under 174.5 Points
Essendon Vs Adelaide Crows
Friday 23 March, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
This will be a very interesting clash between two teams that are expected to be in the finals mix once again in 2018.
The Adelaide Crows were the most consistent team in the AFL last season and it is a shame for the club that they saved one of their worst performances of the season for the AFL Grand Final.
Adelaide have lost Jake Lever to Melbourne, but they have finally gotten their hands on Bryce Gibbs and they now have one of the most complete midfields in the competition.
They will go into this clash as favourites and they did win 7 of their ten games as away favourites last season, while they were 6-4 against the line when giving away a start.
Essendon returned to the top 8 last season and big things are expected of the Bombers after they added the likes of Jake Stringer, Adam Saad and Devon Smith to their list during the Trade Period.
The Bombers were one of the best betting sides in the entire AFL last season and they won five of their seven games as home favourites for a huge profit.
This is another game where the value does look to lie in the Total Points betting market.
The Under saluted in seven of the 11 away games played by the Crows away from the Adelaide Oval last season, while the Under was also a profitable play in Essendon games in 2017.
Back Under 189.5 Points
St Kilda Vs Brisbane Lions
Saturday 24 March, 3:35pm, Etihad Stadium
This will be an interesting test to see where each of these teams are at the start of the season.
Consistency and a lack of depth was the big issue for St Kilda last season and they haven’t done much during the off-season to fix their depth.
St Kilda will start this clash as clear favourites and they did win five of their seven games as home favourites last season, but they were only 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
The Brisbane Lions were unable to avoid the wooden spoon in 2017, but they still took some big steps in the right direction and they should improve against in 2018.
Adding a player with the experience of Luke Hodge is massive for a club that has badly lacked leadership in recent seasons and he is the perfect on-field coach for what is a young defence.
Brisbane only won two of their 11 games as away underdogs, but they were a most impressive 9-2 against the line in this situation and were generally underestimate by the market.
I don’t think that there is as much between the two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Lions are a great bet to beat the line with a healthy start.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+24. 5 Points)
Port Adelaide Vs Fremantle
Saturday 24 March, 4:35pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide are clear favourites to start their season with a win over Fremantle.
Port Adelaide’s season may have finished in disappointing circumstances as they were knocked out in the first week of the AFL Finals, but they still only just missed the top four and they were far more consistent than they have been in recent seasons.
The Power won eight of their 11 games as home favourites and they were able to cover the line in six of these wins.
Fremantle started 2017 fairly strong and they recorded a couple of big upset wins, but that did somewhat hide the fact that they won only two of their past 12 games and were putrid in the second half of the season.
The Dockers do have a young list with potential and they are a tricky team to analyse ahead of the 2018 AFL season.
Fremantle won only three of their ten games as away underdogs last season, but they were 6-4 against the line.
This is a game that the market looks to have just about right and this is a match that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
Gold Coast Suns Vs North Melbourne
Saturday 24 March, 7:25pm, Cazaly's Stadium
There is very little in betting between these two sides that are expected to be in the wooden spoon mix.
It was another season to forget for the Gold Coast Suns in 2017 and they have lost plenty of experience in the form of Gary Ablett, Brandon Matera and Adam Saad.
The Suns have been a very tough side to trust from a betting perspective throughout their history and they won only one of their four games as home favourites last season.
North Melbourne were expected to struggle in 2017 and they did at times, but they probably weren’t as bad as the majority of experts thought they would be ahead of the season.
Their midfield still lacks talent, but they do have an excellent forward line and Ben Brown was nothing short of outstanding last season.
The Kangaroos won only two of their ten games as away underdogs last season for a clear loss, but they were 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
Both games played between these two sides last season were high-scoring affairs and that has generally been the pattern when these teams have met.
The Total Points line has been set at 159.5 points and as long as the rain stays away that does not look like anywhere near enough.
Back Over 159.5 Points
Hawthorn Vs Collingwood
Saturday 24 March, 7:25pm, MCG
This is another game where there is not a great deal between the two sides and it is Hawthorn that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
Hawthorn were extremely slow out of the blocks in 2017, but they did improve significantly in the second half of the season and they are a side that could go either way in 2018.
The Hawks won only three of their seven games as favourites last season and they were a poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.
Collingwood went another season without playing finals in 2017 and they have done very little to improve their list during the off-season.
There is no coach in the AFL under more pressure than Nathan Buckley and an opening round win would help ease the pressure on the constantly under-fire coach.
Collingwood did win four of their ten games last season for a clear profit and they were 8-2 against the line in this situation.
This is a game where I really have struggled to separate the two sides and it is Collingwood that represent just a touch of value at their current price of $2.
Back Collingwood To Win @ $2
GWS Giants Vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 25 March, 1:10pm, UNSW Canberra Oval
The GWS Giants and the Western Bulldogs have played a number of outstanding games in recent years – most notably their famous Preliminary Final in 2016 – and this should be another cracker.
2017 represented another missed opportunity for the Giants and what was expected to be an inevitable dynasty may not be inevitable at all.
The Giants were a tricky side from a betting perspective last season – they generally got the job done when they were expected to, but their record against the line was very poor.
They did not lose a game as home favourites last season, but they were 4-7 against the line in this scenario.
A premership hangover was blamed for the woes of Western Bulldogs in 2017 and they are another team that could go either way this season.
Will they follow in the path of Hawthorn – who bounced back after their premiership hangover in 2009 – or will they become the first team in the modern era to miss the finals in the two seasons after winning the flag?
Winning away from home was a serious issue for the Bulldogs last season and they lost all four of their game as away underdogs, while they were only a middling 2-2 against the line in that scenario.
This is yet another game where the value lies in the Total Points betting market.
The Under saluted in an incredible ten of the 11 games played by Hawthorn away from home last season and the Total Points line of 173.5 points does seem excessive.
Back Under 173.5 Points
Melbourne Vs Geelong
Sunday 25 March, 3:20pm, MCG
The market cannot split Melbourne and Geelong ahead of this Sunday afternoon blockbuster at the MCG.
Geelong were once again in the Premiership mix in 2017 and there is plenty of excitement around the city following the return of The Prodigal son Gary Ablett.
The Cats now under one of the greatest midfield trios in the history of the AFL, but there are injury clouds over Ablett and Joel Sellwood, while Patrick Dangerfield is all but certain to miss the opening round of the season.
Geelong do have an outstanding record against Melbourne and they did beat the Demons by a big margin last season.
It was a long offseason for Melbourne fans after their final round meltdown cost them a top eight finish and anything less than a return to the AFL Finals will be considered a huge failure in 2018.
Melbourne generally struggled against the best teams in the competition last season and they need to improve their record against the likes of Geelong if they are going to take the next step this season.
The Cats may go into this clash without Dangerfield, but their record against Melbourne can’t be ignored and they do represent genuine value at their current price.
Back Geelong To Win @ $1.92
West Coast Eagles Vs Sydney Swans
Sunday 25 March, 7:20pm, Optus Stadium
The West Coast Eagles may have the homeground advantage at the brand-new Optus Stadium, but it is the Sydney Swans that will start this clash as clear favourites.
2017 was nothing short of a bizarre season for the Swans.
They started the season 0-6 and looked to have no answers whatsoever, but they lost just two games for the remainder of the regular season and they finished comfortably inside the top eight.
The Swans did win five of their eight games as away favourites last season and they were able to cover the line in each of those wins.
West Coast not only managed to make the finals last season, they went on to beat Port Adelaide and that definitely shadowed the fact that they did struggle at times last season.
It is rare to see West Coast as such heavy underdogs in front of their home fans and they were able to win eight of their 11 games as home last season and they did beat Sydney comfortably.
It really is difficult to oppose West Coast in Perth and they can cover the line with the healthy start of 17.5 points.
Back West Coast To Beat The Line (+17.5 Points)
It is finally here!
The 2017 AFL season gets underway on Thursday night and we are set for what should be a truly fascinating opening round of action, so we have put together our 2017 AFL Round 1 tips.
There are no absolutely dominant favourites in round one and every single game is set to be a competitive affair, but we are still confident that we have found some winners.
Carlton Vs Richmond
Thursday 23 March, 7:20pm, MCG
The traditional start to the AFL season is the always intriguing clash between Carlton and Richmond.
Carlton made a promising start to the season in 2016 before they faded badly in the final third of the year and it looks set to be another rebuilding year for the Blues.
Scoring points was there biggest problem last season and they really have not done a great deal to improve on that this season.
Richmond were one of the biggest disappointments in the entire competition last year and they are at long odds to return to the finals.
The Tigers have signed Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy to add depth to their midfield, but they have lost Brett Deledio and Ty Vickery in the process.
Richmond will start this clash as favourites and this is a position in which they struggled last season.
The Tigers won only six of their ten games as favourites last season and were an extremely putrid 2-8 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton were actually a profitable betting side in the AFL last season and they won five of their 17 games as underdogs for a clear profit.
There is nowhere near as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and Carlton are excellent value to start the season with a win.
Carlton To Win @ $2.85
Collingwood Vs Western Bulldogs
Friday 24 March, 7:50pm, MCG
This will be a big moment for fans of the Western Bulldogs as their side will run out as defending premiers for the first time in 62 years.
The Western Bulldogs were nothing short of outstanding in the 2016 AFL Finals and there is every chance they will be even better in 2017.
I have no doubt that the Bulldogs will be in the premiership mix come the business end of the season, but I have my concerns about how well they will start the year.
The premiership hangover is a real thing – especially for a young side – and there is every chance that the Bulldogs will be slow out of the gates.
Collingwood were the biggest underperformers in the AFL last season and the pressure really is on Nathan Buckley to turn them around in 2017.
They are a team that lacks an on-field identity and that will need to change if they are any chance of returning to finals football.
The Magpies did win three of their six games as home underdogs last season for a clear profit and they are capable of a stellar performance on their day.
This will be closer than the current market suggests and I am keen to back the Magpies with a start of 15.5 points.
Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+15.5 Points)
St Kilda Vs Melbourne
Saturday 25 March, 4:35pm, Etihad Stadium
This is an intriguing clash between two sides that are expected to push for a place in the top eight.
St Kilda only missed out on the finals by percentage last season and they only need to improve slightly to make the jump into the top eight this season.
If they are to make that leap they will need to win games like this one and they go into this clash as narrow favourites.
St Kilda did win all three of their games as home favourites last season, while they have won their past 14 games against the Demons.
There is no doubt that Melbourne are a side on the rise and they have added some serious talent to their side in the form of Jordan Lewis, Michael Hibberd and Jake Melksham.
Inconsistency was an issue for the Demons and they will be hopeful that these mature recruits will make them a more reliable week-to-week proposition.
Melbourne were a profitable betting play as underdogs last season, but the fact that their record against St Kilda is so poor is a serious concern.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right, but it is still set to be a fascinating affair.
Sydney Swans Vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 25 March, 4:35pm, SCG
The Sydney Swans are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend and are expected to make short work of Port Adelaide.
Sydney were only narrowly denied another premiership by the Western Bulldogs last season and they are sure to be in contention once again.
The Swans are the consistent force of the AFL and they look a lock to finish in the top four once again.
Sydney won 10 of their 14 games as home favourites last season and more impressively they were 9-5 against the line in this scenario.
Port Adelaide took another step backwards in terms of their position on the ladder last season, but they weren’t actually as bad as that suggests.
Their percentage was the best of the teams that missed out on the AFL Finals and they are still capable of playing some excellent football on their day.
This is a big season for Ken Hinkley and he is sure to have his side ready to fire early.
The Power actually won two of their four games as away underdogs last season, but they were no match for Sydney and they have not beaten the Swans since 2013.
Sydney really should be able to get their season off to a winning start, but their is no value at their current price and this is another game that I am happy to stay out of.
Gold Coast Suns Vs Brisbane Lions
Saturday 25 March, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
Both the Gold Coast Suns and the Brisbane Lions had seasons to forget and they will be looking to make a positive start to the season.
Off-field problems continue to distract the Suns and there has been plenty of drama surrounding GaryAblett during the pre-season, but it should not be forgotten that the Suns have one of the most talented lists in the competition.
Anything is possible for the Suns this season – they could just as easily compete for the wooden spoon as a spot in the top eight – but they really should be able to make a winning start to the season.
The Suns did not start many games as favourites last season, but when they did they generally got the job done and they beat the line in four of their six games as home favourites.
Chris Fagan has taken over at the Brisbane Lions and is a very shrewd appointment, but it is tough to see him turning this list around in a season.
The Lions were lucky not to win the wooden spoon last year and they played uninspiring football right across the season.
Brisbane won just one of their 11 games as away underdogs and they were a very poor 3-8 against the line.
The Suns should really make a winning start to their season and the line of 19.5 points will not be enough.
Back Gold Coast To Beat The Line (-19.5 Points)
Essendon Vs Hawthorn
Saturday 25 March, 7:25pm, MCG
This is a massive moment for the Essendon Football Club as their suspended players are set to return to a heroes welcome.
There is no doubt that Essendon will be a much better football team in 2017, but expectations may have been hyped somewhat after their promising pre-season.
Taking a year out of your career is a setback for any player, but when there are 12 of these players on the same list it is sure to have even more of an impact.
In saying that, there is a fair bit to like about Essendon heading into this clash against Hawthorn.
As I said earlier their pre-season has been excellent and even with all their issues last season they still managed to be a profitable betting side.
The Bombers covered the line in ten of their 16 games in Melbourne last season and there is no doubt that they will head into this clash full of energy.
Hawthorn have gone through plenty of upheaval during the off-season and they will be one of the most interesting teams to follow in 2017.
They have added the likes of Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell to what is already a strong side, but they have lost both Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell.
Losing that much experience is tough for any side and there could be somewhat of a leadership vacuum at the club, which places plenty of pressure on the returning Jarryd Roughead.
The Hawks were one of the worst betting teams in the entire AFL last season and they covered the line in just five of their 20 games as favourites.
Essendon will give Hawthorn a scare in this clash and even if they can’t win, they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 15.5 points.
Back Essendon To Beat The Line (+15.5 Points)
North Melbourne Vs West Coast Eagles
Sunday 26 March, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne are expected to be the big sliders in the AFL this season and it is the West Coast Eagles that will start this clash as clear favourites.
No club has lost more experience during the off-season than North Melbourne and their senior list contains an astonishing 15 players that are yet to make their AFL debuts.
A number of players will be thrown into the deep end this season and it really would not surprise if North Melbourne were in wooden spoon calculations at some stage this season.
North Melbourne lost all eight of their games as underdogs last season and their record against the line when getting a start was a very poor 2-6.
West Coast fell away at the tail end of 2016, but it should not be forgotten that they were legitimate premiership contenders for the majority of the season.
There is no doubt that West Coast are a much better team in front of their home fans and their betting statistics show that fact – they won four of their six games as away favourites and they were a poor 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
The real value in this betting looks to be in the Total Points market.
Both North Melbourne and West Coast were big Unders teams in 2016 and at Etihad Stadium the Total Points line of 182.5 points looks fairly high.
Back Under 182.5 Points
Adelaide Crows Vs GWS Giants
Sunday 26 March, 3:20pm, Adelaide Oval
This should be a highly entertaining game between two sides that are expected to be genuine premiership contenders.
The Greater Western Sydney Giants only narrowly missed out on a maiden premiership in 2016 and they are clear favourite to claim the flag this season.
There is little doubt that this Greater Western Sydney side should improve with that finals experience under their belts and they now have one of the most experienced lists in the entire AFL.
It is no surprise that the Giants will go into this clash as clear favourites and they were tough to beat in this scenario last season – they won seven of their eight games as away favourites, but were only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
Adelaide played some blistering football at times in 2017 and for a large part of the season they were considered one of the leading premiership contenders.
They fell away slightly at the very end of the season, but they are still a side with plenty of talent.
Whether they are able to maintain their exciting, attacking style from last season is the question and the Crows are a side that have a high ceiling as well as a low floor.
The Crows were able to turn the Adelaide Oval into a fortress in 2016 and they won all three of their games as home underdogs for a clear profit.
The one betting market that does stand out in this clash is the Total Points betting market.
It is fair to say that the Crows and the Giants are two of the most entertaining teams in the entire competition and backing the Over in games involving either side last season was a highly profitable play.
The total point line has been set at 188.5 points and that does not look like anywhere near enough in a game that involves two sides with such attacking fire-power.
Back Over 188.5 Points
Fremantle Vs Geelong
Sunday 26 March, 6:40pm, Domain Stadium
Fremantle have the home ground advantage, but it is Geelong that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Patrick Dangerfield took his game to another level with Geelong last season and he was obviously the key-man for this side that only narrowly missed out on a Grand Final appearance.
A reliance on Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is the obvious issue for the Cats and there are some issues with their forward line, but this is still a side that will be in the mix come September.
Winning away from home was somewhat of an issue for Geelong last season and they won only six of their ten games as away favourites for a clear loss, while they were 6-4 against the line in this scenario.
Fremantle plummeted down the ladder in 2016, but it really would not surprise if they were the big improvers in 2017.
It should not be forgotten that Fremantle finished in the top four in 2015 and they will be a completely different side if Nathan Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands are able to stay fit.
Whether they are capable to return to finals football is a different question, but there is no doubt that they will win more than four games.
The Dockers only won two of their eight games as home underdogs last season, but they were a credible 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
It really would not surprise if Fremantle make a strong start to the season and I am keen to back them to cover the line with a start of 12.5 points.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)
The opening round of the AFL season is one of the most anticipated moments on the Australian sporting calendar and the 2017 season gets underway with the now traditional opener between Richmond and Carlton. The best AFL odds on the opening game of the season can be found at Ladbrokes.
We will get our first look at the second-tier Essendon side when they face the Gold Coast Suns on Saturday before the Sydney Swans host Collingwood in a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium.
The opening round of the season will be played over Easter Weekend and that means we get the always intriguing Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong in the first week of the season.
Richmond Vs Carlton
Thursday 24 March, 7:20pm, MCG
Richmond have won their past meetings with Carlton and go into the traditional AFL season opener as dominant favourites to make a winning start to the season.
Richmond fans start every season full of confidence that this can finally be the year that their side can develop into a genuine top four outfit, while Carlton were truly awful last season and if they can avoid the wooden spoon 2016 will be considered an improvement.
The Tigers have a reputation as being an unreliable football team and that theory is confirmed by their betting data in the past 12 months – they have been a losing betting proposition as favourites and they are a horrible 3-8 against the line as favourites at the MCG.
The loss of Brett Delido is a massive one and you simply can’t back the Tigers at their current price without one of their starts in the outfit.
It should come as no surprise that Carlton were a shocking betting team last season and they won just two of their 17 games as underdogs last season, while they are 8-11 against the line as underdogs.
There really isn’t a betting play that stands out in this fixture and I am happy to stay out and wait for better betting games later in the week.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Melbourne Vs GWS Giants
Saturday 26 March, 1:40pm, MCG
This will be a very interesting game between two sides that are expected to improve again this season.
Melbourne showed promising signs at the start of 2015 before they regressed badly in the second half of the season, but they showed some promising signs during the NAB Challenge.
The Greater Western Sydney Giants made a big leap last season and they could have snuck into the top eight if their side wasn’t badly hit by an injury crisis in the middle of the season.
The Giants will start this game as favourites and if they are serious about playing finals football they really need to be winning games like this one.
The AFL’s youngest franchise were a very safe bet as favourites last season at Spotless Stadium, but their record away from home was poor and they were 2-3 against the line as home favourites.
The Demons were a profitable betting play as underdogs last season in head to head betting and their NAB Challenge form suggests to me that they will make a promising start to the season.
The $2.30 on offer for the Demons to score an upset first round win for the second time in as many seasons is worth a bet.
Recommended Bet: Back The Demons To Win @ $2.30
Gold Coast Suns Vs Essendon
Saturday 26 March, 3:35pm, Metricon Stadium
What do you say about the Essendon Bombers in 2016?
The club has been gutted by the WADA suspensions of the majority of their best players and it is tough to see them winning more than a handful of games this season.
The Gold Coast Suns were expected to push for a finals berth last season, but without Gary Ablett they were extremely poor and expectations have been fairly measured in 2016.
It comes as no surprise that the Suns are favourites for this clash – a scenario that they haven’t been in for the majority of their time in the AFL.
The Suns have a very poor record against the line as favourites, while the Bombers were 10-7 against the line as underdogs this season.
In saying that, I still don’t want to back the Bombers and we need to see how their top-up players perform for a couple of weeks before we can even consider them as a betting proposition.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
North Melbourne Vs Adelaide
Saturday 26 March, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
This is one of the most interesting games of the round as both these sides are considered legitimate chances to play finals football this season.
North Melbourne were only a game away from the Grand Final again last season, but it is fair to say that they overachieved and they were not particularly impressive for the majority of the season.
Adelaide showed a tremendous amount of character to rally following the tragic murder of their coach Phil Walsh and they played a quality brand of football to qualify for the finals, but many experts believe that they will struggle to replicate that in 2016.
North Melbourne will start this game as favourites and this is a position where they thrived in last season – they lost just one game as favourites at Etihad Stadium and they were 9-4 against the line.
The Adelaide Crows were a losing betting proposition as underdogs last year and they were 2-4 against the line away from home.
I am backing the Kangaroos to get out of the blocks quickly this season and they are a good bet to cover the line of 13.5 points
Recommended Bet: Back The Kangaroos To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)
Sydney Swans Vs Collingwood
Saturday 26 March, 7:25pm, SCG
The Sydney Swans remain a consistent force in the AFL and they should play finals football again in 2016, but in recent seasons they have been fairly slow starters.
Collingwood were one of the big disappointments last season, but their list is simply packed full of quality and it is difficult to see them being that bad again in 2016.
The Swans are set to start this game as favourites, but we need to remember that Collingwood have been a bogey team for the Sydney Swans in recent years and the Magpies have won 13 of the last 16 games played between the two sides.
Sydney went a terrible 3-8 against the line as home favourites last season and they were a losing betting proposition across the majority of metrics.
On the other hand, Collingwood went 6-0 against the line as away underdogs last season and you can’t ignore their excellent record against the Swans.
I expect the Magpies to bounce back in a very big way this season and they are a great bet to beat the line with a start of 7.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back The Magpies To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)
Western Bulldogs Vs Fremantle
Sunday 27 March, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
The Western Bulldogs were the big improvers last season under new coach Luke Beveridge, but they face a tough challenge replicating that feat now that rival coaches have had an off-season to analyse their interesting approach.
Fremantle set the pace for the majority of the AFL season and they were the minor premiers, but come September they were spent forces and they never looked like genuine premiership contenders.
The market can’t split these two teams ahead of this fixture and it is very easy to see why as there are a number of questions surrounding both sides – none more so than the fitness of Nat Fye, who had surgery in the post-season to fix a fractured leg.
The Bulldogs were very good at Etihad Stadium last season, while the Dockers were 8-3 away from home but they were only 1-2 as away underdogs.
Like the bookies, I can’t split these sides, but the one market that does stand out is the Over/Under betting market.
The Dockers are the best defensive team in the competition and the Under saluted in 64 percent of their games last season, while the total went under in 59 percent of the Bulldogs games last season.
Recommended: Back The Under (175.5 Points)
Port Adelaide Vs St Kilda
Sunday 27 March, 2:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide were the only team to beat Hawthorn twice last season, but they still missed out on finals football in what was a very disappointing regression under Ken Hinkley.
St Kilda showed signs of improvement in 2015 and they were far more competitive against the better teams in the competition, but there are questions over whether they can continue that upward spiral this season.
The Power are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend and this was a scenario in which they struggled last season – they were 5-5 as home favourites and they were a very poor 7-10 against the line.
St Kilda went 4-6 as away underdogs last season and that saw them finish in the positive, but their record against the line was poor in just about every scenario.
This is a very tricky game to assess as there is no way that I could possibly get Port Adelaide as short as $1.20, but I don’t really want to play the Saints at the line.
The only play I could recommend here would be an extremely small bet on the Saints at their current price of $4.75, which really is over the odds based on how the Power performed last season.
Recommended Bet: Back The Saints To Win @ $4.75
West Coast Eagles Vs Brisbane Lions
Sunday 27 March, 4:40pm, Domain Stadium
This is the biggest mismatch of the season and based on betting the West Coast Eagles are set to start the 2016 AFL season with a very big win over the Brisbane Lions.
West Coast may have failed to fire in the AFL Grand Final, but they were still very impressive throughout the season and I expect them to finish in the top four once again.
In contrast, the Brisbane Lions produced another very forgettable season in 2015 and there aren’t many outside the club that believe they will perform any better this season.
West Coast are $1.03 favourites and the Eagles have started as $1.05 favourites or shorter in the past four seasons on ten occasions and won ten times, so it is extremely difficult to see them getting beaten.
The line is where the interest will be here and the West Coast Eagles were an outstanding 9-1 as home favourites against the line last season, while the Lions were 7-11 as underdogs.
The line of 57.5 points is massive, but the Eagles have covered a line of greater than 50 points on six occasions in the past three seasons and all the data suggests that they will do the same again this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back The Eagles To Beat The Line (-57.5 Points)
Geelong Vs Hawthorn
Monday 28 March, 3:20pm, MCG
The rivalry between Geelong and Hawthorn is one of the most intense in the AFL and this is always one of the highlights of the AFL calendar.
Hawthorn embarrassed the West Coast Eagles in the 2015 AFL Grand Final to win their third straight flag and it would take a braver man than me to suggest that they can’t make it four in a row this season.
Geelong missed the finals for the first time in nine years last season, but a very soft draw and some shrewd recruitment, highlighted by the signing of Patrick Dangerfield, means that the Cats are expected to return to the top four very quickly.
Hawthorn have now won the past four games played between the two sides and they are favourites to make it five in a row on Easter Monday.
The Hawks were a very small losing proposition as favourites in head to head betting markets last season, but they were 15-11 against the line as favourites.
Geelong were 5-6 as underdogs last season, which gave punters that backed them each time in this scenario a very small profit, but they had the same record against the line for a small loss.
The Cats might take a while to click this season and you have to stick with the winners, so Hawthorn are a good bet to get their season off to a winning start.
Recommended Bet: Back The Hawks To Win @ $1.70