AFL fans may have been starved of action in Opening Round with just two games to sink our teeth into, but there will no such issue this week.

From the Grand Final re-match to the Nick Daicos saga, there are no shortage of storylines heading into the weekend.

See below for our complete 2025 AFL Round 1 preview, Aussie Rules tips for the week, and weekly AFL best bets around the grounds!

Do we thank the AFL Lord this isn’t the first game of the season?

While that may sound blasphemous to Aussie Rules traditionalists, never has there been a greater disparity between the expectations of Richmond and Carlton going into their first game of the season.

The Blues are still picking themselves up after falling off the face of the earth with five losses from their last six games in 2024, including an elimination loss to Brisbane.

At $1.04 with Ladbrokes, the Blues are expected to bounce back and account for the Tigers with ease.

Charlie Curnow (knee), Nic Newman (knee), and Jagga Smith (knee) are significant outs, but will matter little as they welcome Nick Haynes (GWS) and favourite son Lucas Camporeale into the mix.

Whatever losses the Blues are dealing with pale in comparison to the Tigers, who followed up their disastrous two-win 2024 campaign by losing Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker, Shai Bolton, and Jack Graham.

The fact is Adem Yze may coach a winless team this season while blooding a host of young guns such as Sam Lalor, and the pain will start on Thursday night.

Patrick Cripps To Have 30+ Disposals at $1.90

Don’t you dare worry about the end of Hokball, it’s here to stay and the Hawks’ traditional rivals are next in line to feel its wrath.

While many questioned the long-term viability of Sam Mitchell’s game plan and the bravado of the Hokball fraternity, Hawthorn kick-started their season with an impressive 20-point victory over the Swans at the SCG.

Will Day returned from his sixth pre-season with three goals in the first half and 26 disposals for the game, while Lloyd Meek stamped his authority all over Brodie Grundy in the ruck.

Despite the Essendon Mafia spruiking ‘stability and unity’ with the perplexing extension of Brad Scott’s coaching deal, there’s arguably no club with more pressure to make (and win) finals.

After losing their final three matches and finishing 11^th last season, the Bombers parted ways with Jake Stringer and will replace him with exciting forward prospect, Isaac Kako.

With no Darcy Parish (back) or two metre Peter Wright (ankle) for the first few weeks, it could prove a tough initiation for Scott’s men against a red-hot Hawks.

Hawthorn to win by 1-39 at $2.10

Another team whose Opening Round fixture was dismantled by the wild winds of Cyclone Alfred, Geelong will now host Fremantle at GMHBA Stadium in their first game of the season.

The Cats, who are currently $1.52 favourites after having won their previous seven season openers at GMHBA, will unleash the silky skills and washboard abs of former Bulldog Bailey Smith.

Smith’s inclusion tops up a Geelong side that was just 10 points away from another grand final berth in 2024.

The Dockers will be hellbent on playing finals footy in 2025 following their disappointing 10^th-place finish.

Justin Longmuir’s men were third on the ladder after Round 20, before losing their final four games.

The addition of Richmond premiership forward Shai Bolton gives the Dockers much-needed firepower up forward, but they’ll start the year without Hayden Young (hamstring), Sean Darcy (ankle) and potentially Alex Pearce (ankle).

Geelong To Win at $1.52

It’s taken one relatively unsuccessful Opening Round, but the Grand Final re-match is upon us as the Lions look to open their account against the Swans at the SCG.

It was a massacre of epic proportions when these two sides last met as the Lions overpowered the Swans by 10 goals in the most one-sided decider since Geelong and Port Adelaide in 2007.

Chris Fagan has since added Levi Ashcroft, the brother of Norm Smith Medallist Will, in his quest for back-to-back flags, but they will need to find a replacement for Joe Daniher (retired) and Lincoln McCarthy, who re-injured the same knee that sidelined him last year.

The Swans will be looking to bounce back following last week’s loss to the Hawks and a second-straight loss at the SCG would spell serious danger early in the season.

Matt Roberts was a standout across half-back with 26 disposals, but Taylor Adams (hamstring) was the latest in a string of injuries for Dean Cox to contend with alongside Errol Gulden (ankle), Callum Mills (foot), Logan McDonald (ankle) and Harry Cunningham (foot).

It will be important for the Swans to keep step with a Lions side that has won 15 of it s last 16 opening quarters. Given their lengthy injury list, it’s hard to see that happening.

Total Points Under 177.5 at $1.88

It couldn’t be further from a grand final re-match, but the Western Bulldogs will hope to garner some positive news in their first-up clash with the Roos.

It’s been an off-season of hell for Luke Beveridge and his chargers with lengthy injuries to Marcus Bontempelli (calf), Liam Jones (hamstring), Adam Treloar (calf) and Cody Weightman (knee) compounded by the off-field hysteria surrounding Jamarra Ugle-Hagan’s behaviour.

On the other hand, and in direct opposition to previous years of headlines caused by Alastair Clarkson, it’s been relatively smooth sailing for the Roos as they attempt to win more than three games for the first time since 2021.

Finn O’Sullivan will debut alongside Caleb Daniel (WB), Jack Darling (WCE) and Luke Parker (Syd), but the Roos will need to snap a seven-game losing streak against the Dogs if they are to taste the proverbial winner’s ale.

Harry Sheezel To Have 35+ Disposals at $2.70

Move over prison bars jumper debate, there’s a new headline grabber for this week’s match-up between Collingwood and Port Adelaide.

His name is Nick Daicos.

The Brownlow Medal favourite was the talk of the town after his side’s loss to GWS in Opening Round, as he inhaled pickle juice for his uncontrollable cramping in the third quarter of the game.

While he’ll undoubtedly bounce back with a lengthier stint up forward, Craig McRae will be less concerned about his star midfielder and more worried about the fact they got dismantled by a Giants side missing Jesse Hogan and Tom Green.

Ken Hinkley kicks off his final year at the helm of the Power as the $2.35 underdog and without Zak Butters (knee) for at least the next month.

Conor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis will need to step up through the midfield during this period, something they did successfully in their 44-point pre-season win over the Saints.

The Pies looked underdone against the Giants and both Josh Daicos and Jeremy Howe pulled up sore, so the +8.5 line for Port looks more than generous.

Port Adelaide (+8.5) at $1.90

Is this the year for Crows fans?

After multiple seasons of ‘we’ve got the cattle to make a splash in finals’ ringing through their ears, Adelaide’s recruiting team moved swiftly after last year’s 15^th-place failure.

They’ve added Alex Neale-Bullen (Melb), Isaac Cumming (GWS) and James Peatling (GWS) to a side boasting Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine and up-and-coming Jake Soligo.

The Saints, who finished three spots above the Crows, similarly have something to prove under the second iteration of the Ross Lyon era.

Rowan Marshall and Jack Sinclair have both been deemed fit to play after interrupted pre-seasons, but their forward 50 will take a pounding with Max King, Dan Butler and Liam Henry. Having defeated the Saints 13 times from their last 15 encounters, it should be cut and dry for the Crows.

Adelaide Crows to win by 1-39 at $2.05

One of the more interesting Round 1 clashes on the AFL fixture pits Melbourne against the all-conquering Giants at the MCG.

The Giants will enter the game as $1.82 favourites after dismantling the Pies to the tune of 52 points last week.

It was clinical from a side missing reigning Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan and star midfielder Tom Green, with Finn Callaghan stepping up and collecting 33 disposals and seven clearances in a very Petracca-esque display.

It’s been a far quieter off-season for the Dees than 12 months ago, with Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca set to lead their midfield despite very strong trade rumours at the end of last season.

Oliver (28 disposals) was back to his best in their pre-season game against the Dockers, as he, Petracca, Gawn and Viney look to reassert themselves as the preeminent midfield in the competition.

Brent Daniel To Kick 2+ Goals at $4.00

OK Dimma, now is your chance to show us something.

After first taking the reins at the Gold Coast last season, three-time premiership coach Damien Hardwick will be looking to start the Suns’ quest for a maiden finals berth when they travel west this weekend.

Daniel Rioli will add a much-needed layer of experience after following his former coach to the bright lights of Cavill Avenue, while the Cyclone Afred-enforced week off means Charlie Ballard (ankle) and Lachie Weller (hamstring) can play their season opener.

It won’t be as easy as just showing up for the Suns after their loss to the Eagles at Optus Stadium last season, but it has been made significantly easier with the unavailability of Elliot Yeo (knee) and Dom Sheed (knee).

However, the Eagles claimed their own Tigers premiership stars over the off-season in the form of Liam Baker and Jack Graham, but it’s unlikely they will prove the difference against a hungry Suns outfit.

Gold Coast To Win at $1.53

2024

Opening Round opened the door to a brand-new season of footy and certainly gave us a few surprises to process ahead of the first full set of games.

The attention moves to Round 1, where the remaining 10 teams get their first hitout in our first full week of fixtures in 2024.

Carlton and Richmond kick off Round 1, with both searching for some positive early season momentum.

The Pies will unfurl their 2023 premiership flag in front of a heaving 80,000+ at the MCG before they take on the Swans.

The Cattery will (finally) play their first match at GMHBA with the new Joel Selwood Stand and in front of a crowd of 40,000 to see their opening match against the Saints.

Opening Round gave us a taste, but Round 1 will get the gears clicking for a full weekend of footy, so find out who we’re backing in our 2022 AFL Round 1 Preview below!

Neither team pictured their Opening Round going so good, and so bad, but an early picture was painted on how these two teams will attack 2024.

The Blues did the impossible, defeating the Lions at the Gabba, not to mention the 46-point comeback accompanied by that win.

Richmond was never expected to set the world alight this year, but their performance in the Gold Coast probably exposed their weaknesses quicker than they would’ve liked.

To their credit, they still have that Tiger fight within them, kicking seven goals in a row to claw the margin back to 25 points was commendable in a game that was close to turning severely ugly.

Sadly for the Blues, they lose club hero Sam Docherty to his third ACL injury in his career, a devastating blow for the Blues and footy fans in general.

The Tigers should see the return of Dustin Martin, Toby Nankervis, and possibly Tom Lynch, which helps bolster the midfield stocks, as well as a dominant key forward, something Richmond lacked last week.

Can the Tigers find a way to shut down McKay and Curnow, or will their dominance overpower Richmond’s lack of depth?

The Blues will go in comfortable favourites, something that hasn’t happened in over a decade.

Tip: Back the Blues to cover the line (-19.5) @ $1.90

Arguably the most exciting matchup of this round, the Pies going 0-2 in their flag unfurling is a prospect that they will not have in mind, but to defy that, they need to take down a fiery Swans outfit.

Sydney got the job done in a scrappy Round 1 affair, but they certainly proved their speed around the contest and efficiency inside 50 can impact when it matters.

Collingwood was exposed for their lack of contest inside defensive 50, where the Giants found easier avenues to goal.

It’s always been a trend in Collingwood’s game, but their offensive flare and dare have always given them the capacity to play looser around the contest.

The Swans play this similar style of game, which has previously resulted in quite low-scoring games head-to-head.

The generic saying that “this game is won in the midfield” may apply to this game more than others, as both sides lack a genuine key forward.

Mihocek provided some terrific forward pressure and presence aerially for the Pies, but no Collingwood forward was able to take more than three marks.

Sydney has had similar issues but last week able to get some better output from their forward line.

The Swans win in Opening Round may have overlooked their sloppy ball use at times, something the Pies still did well in their loss.

The Swans statistically should be favourites, but hard to look past the Pies with over 80,000 at the G’, a flag unfurling and the heaving black and white army behind them.

Tip: Collingwood to win by 1-39 @ $2.10

The first look at two teams not involved in Opening Round, the classic rivalry between the Hawks and Dons will be under MCG sunlight for the first time in 2024.

The Bombers will look to put a lot of doubters to sleep early on, albeit against a developing side in the Hawks, but a win is a win to get the ball rolling.

The Hawks have all eyes on the future and we got a great glimpse into what they can provide last year, with wins over finalists Collingwood, Brisbane, and St Kilda.

Essendon tends to play out a similar narrative each year, start strong, knock off a few finals contenders, and eventually wither away quite embarrassingly it must be said.

The Bombers get clicking when they bring energy around the contest, creating turnovers and letting their exciting midfield crop, who unfortunately may go into the game without Darcy Parish.

The Bombers have shown faith in Kyle Langford, re-signing until the end of 2027, along with Jordan Ridley, bolstering their defensive unit.

Whilst the Hawks showed promising signs in 2023, they also struggled with consistency, either beating tough opposition or getting thoroughly outplayed.

When Hawthorn is on, they’re on, and against a team like Essendon who can fall away quickly when low on confidence, it’s their best chance to grind out a win.

The Bombers should be too strong in this one, similar to Round 1 last year, but it is Hawthorn, an upset is on the cards.

Tip: Essendon to win by 40+ @ $4.60

The Giants made a statement against the Pies in Opening Round, putting their foot down to settle any questions on whether the Giants were scarred from their Preliminary Final.

Their task of North Melbourne this weekend is on the climb, hoping to begin seeing results in their transformation.

The Roos should probably expect another long year, waiting for their young core group to get some senior experience and for the chemistry to gel even further.

But there are exciting prospects for this young Kangaroos team, with McKercher and Duursma looking primed to transfer their talent seamlessly into the AFL.

The Giants will be without their fearless captain, Callan Ward, for the foreseeable future, but should see the return of Finn Callaghan, unless he steps on another nail.

GWS simply has too many forward threats to shut down, but the Roos do possess threat themselves and will certainly give the Giants some trouble, it all boils down to North’s midfield domination.

Great first test for the Roos, but the Giants will do this comfortably.

Tip: Giants to cover the line (-44.5) @ $1.90

The Cattery has been waiting and waiting for this new grandstand to have its big opening, and here we are in 2024, the Joel Selwood Stand finally gets its introduction.

Geelong had their premiership hangover in 2023, and you can’t totally write off that their slump will continue.

The Saints defied expectations in 2023 with Ross Lyon back at the helm, guiding the team into the top eight before falling short in their Elimination Final.

Many pundits believe that the Saints overachieved in 2023, but they won what needed to be won, however the big question for them heading into the new season is, can they back it up?

Geelong has had an explorative off-season in the draft, picking up some strong young talent in O’Sullivan and Stevens, whilst also rolling the dice with mature-age recruit Shaun Mannagh from Werribee, who looked the part in preseason.

The Saints parted ways with Gresham, Billings, and Coffield, but seem to have hit the nail on the head with Liam Henry, along with some elite draft talent in Darcy Wilson, who won the 2km trial in his first week.

All eyes seem to be on the Cats, but Geelong is beatable in Geelong, proven twice last year.

The Saints might shock a few here.

Tip: Saints to win @ $2.55

The Suns look fresh and revitalised under Damien Hardwick, who led his side to a dominant Opening Round victory.

They come up against a talked-up Crows outfit, who were one goal-line technology decision away from the 2023 Finals Series.

But the Crows had themselves to blame, only able to win away from Adelaide on one occasion, they made every game mean something, never in a comfortable position.

What better test than to travel to the Gold Coast, against a team that plays the conditions to a tee.

The Crows have X-Factor in their game, electric and demanding, they kill you off the turnover, flicked into a forward line with the components of speed, power, contested capability, and agility.

Gold Coast may have had things quite easy to start, but where they did fall over was their vulnerability in defensive transition, often saved by Richmond’s lack of efficiency by foot.

The Suns have a stronger midfield group by foot and will look to capitalise on their inside 50 deliveries, playing into their leading patterns that were effective in Opening Round.

Adelaide should win their forward battle, but if they can’t expect to dominate turnover like they usually do against a Gold Coast side well-refined in transition.

The Crows need to overcome their hurdle of winning away, and with the Suns winning the last three encounters in the hot and humid Northern States, the Suns should get it done in a close one.

Tip: Suns to win by 1-39 @ $2.30

The Dees certainly didn’t get 2024 off to the start they wanted, losing due to their lack of efficiency and conviction in the final third.

The Bulldogs themselves are yet again in an unassuming position heading into 2024, neither a contender nor pretender, they’ll be competitive but could be out of finals talks in a matter of weeks.

It’s quite early, but it is in essence a danger game for the Dees who might start 0-2, coming into the game with a hard-fought demanding scrap against a team coming in fresh since their last hitout over two weeks ago.

The Bulldogs are likely to sprout exciting young Tasmania talent, Ryley Sanders, who was deemed by his Under-18 coach as a ready-made footballer.

If the Demons struggle to execute early but keep the Dogs in their reach as the game goes on, the more likely the Dogs are to crumble.

The Bulldogs had a 30.8% record in 2023 of losing after leading at halftime, something that must change in their game if they’re to maintain consistency.

Melbourne’s depth should play a factor here, they might have the same inefficiency issues as last year, but they can put it together easier than the Dogs.

Tip: Melbourne to win by 1-39 @ $2.20

The Power haven’t given their supporters a lot to rave about in the off-season, coming off another disappointing finals exit under Ken Hinkley, who won’t be exiting anytime soon.

But if optimism seems dull for the Power, it’s certainly no better at the Eagles, who hit new lows in 2023.

Harley Reid has dominated the Western Australia media, but even with his class and raw power, he’s unlikely to be dominating for the Eagles for the foreseeable future with a pretty underdeveloped list.

The Power acquired a couple of talls to their stock, Ivan Soldo and Esava Ratugolea the two that will add to their depth, whilst Brandon Zerk-Thatcher adds to Port Adelaide’s defensive presence.

The Eagles growth in 2024 will be around developing a system that can sustain competitiveness, whether that be for a half or three quarters, the talent on their list may limit that, but once talent develops, they need something to have confidence in.

The Power have no reason to drop off, but unfortunately are known for their blunders and inability to climb the mountain come finals time, not during the regular season, so any point they’re trying to prove can’t be proven until September if they are to make it that far.

The Power should dominate at the contest and in front of a home crowd, this should be done and dusted by halftime.

Tip: Power to cover the line (-45.5) @ $1.87

Brisbane played their best and worst footy in the space of one game but didn’t show us signs of regression in their Opening Round hitout.

The Dockers on the other hand did show signs of regression in 2023, and returned to a familiar position, unable to meet their faithful’s expectations.

The Dockers have proven they can make the top eight, finishing fifth in 2022, winning a final, and exiting in the semis.

Their success and failure undeniably boil down to their willingness to commit to their system, which seemed to fall away last year under Justin Longmuir, who may get shown the door if things turn pear-shaped quickly.

The Lions sadly saw victim to another ACL injury, with exciting linebreaker Keidean Coleman set to be sidelined for the next 12 months.

The Dockers were able to see the blueprint of how to take down the Lions, with the Blues changing the game with the pressure application in transition and around the contest.

The Lions will be looking to recapture their first-half form for four quarters over in the west, but the Dockers are every chance to raise some eyebrows early on.

Tip: Lions to win by 1-39 @ $2.10

2022

With the slate wiped clean, hope springs eternal ahead of the 2022 AFL season.

Reigning premiers Melbourne will look to kick off their title defence with a win in Wednesday’s curtain-raiser against the Bulldogs, followed by the traditional Round 1 opener between Carlton and Richmond on Thursday.

Saturday’s slate kicks off with the Cats facing the Bombers, followed by the Giants and the Swans from Sydney, and finally, the Lions and Power from the Gabba.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, we should learn plenty about the new-look Hawks when they take on last year’s wooden spooners North Melbourne, followed by an intriguing game in Adelaide between the Crows and Dockers.

If one thing’s for sure, upsets are guaranteed, so find out who we’re backing in our 2022 AFL Round 1 Preview below!

The MCG will be a sight to behold on Wednesday night as the Demons return to their spiritual home for the first time since winning the flag.

Senses have finally prevailed with the AFL scheduling a Grand Final rematch to open the season, and this blockbuster affair should pack plenty of punch given the growing rivalry between these two clubs.

Melbourne prevailed by 74 points in last year’s Grand Final, snapping a 57-year Premiership drought whilst also giving Luke Beveridge’s men plenty to think about.

Not that the Bulldogs need any motivation, but the sight of the Dees singing ‘Freed From Desire’, the Dogs’ adopted finals song after last year’s decider, is likely something that has stuck with the players throughout the offseason.

On paper, not much has changed on either list.

Melbourne’s brilliant injury luck played a big part in their Premiership win, while their talented midfield made up of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver remains the best in the competition.

The Dogs’ midfield is equally as talented, and another big season from last year’s Brownlow runner-up Marcus Bontempelli is also expected.

Defensively, the Dees might just have a slight advantage, though.

Melbourne was the toughest team to score against last year, something the Dogs found out the hard way in the Grand Final as Christian Salem and Angus Brayshaw had their way.

The Bulldogs would probably like to have Josh Bruce on the field after suffering an ACL injury late last year, but with their key forward still absent for the start of the season, the Dogs might feel the squeeze against Melbourne’s elite back line.

Tip: Back the Demons 1-39 @ $2.25

Plenty of optimism surrounds the Blues and the Tigers after both clubs failed to qualify for the finals last season.

Carlton has undergone a transformation in the form of Michael Voss, who steps up to the head coaching ranks after spending seven seasons as an assistant to Ken Hinkley at Port Adelaide.

Despite having failed to make finals in each of the last eight years, the Blues have been a popular pick with a few old faces departing and most of their young names preparing to enter their prime.

Eddie Betts, Marc Murphy, and Levi Casboult have been lost to retirement, but there’s still plenty of talent at Princes Park in the form of last year’s Coleman Medal winner Harry McKay, and a strong midfield group featuring Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, and former Fremantle Docker, Adam Cerra.

The Tigers, meanwhile, will be hoping to avoid a similar injury bug to the one that cost them last season.

Ivan Soldo’s absence in the ruck was felt immensely after injuring his knee in 2020, while Dustin Martin’s kidney injury in Round 18 basically put a line through Richmond’s finals chances.

Already this preseason we’ve seen glimpses of the Tigers of old though, particularly with Noah Balta playing in the forward line to help relieve some of the pressure on Jack Riewoldt.

Questions surround both clubs, and we should learn plenty on Thursday night.

Can the Blues cope without Sam Walsh during this first month? And can Shai Bolton be relied upon to play more of a goal-kicking role?

As far as betting goes, there really isn’t as much separating these two clubs as the market suggests.

The Blues have typically given the Tigers a run for their money in season’s gone, with the last six games between the two clubs being decided by 1-39.

Richmond hasn’t lost to Carlton since 2013 of course, so there’s a good chance the Blues keep this tight through the first three quarters before the Tigers pull away late.

Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.15

The Saints and the Pies are two of the toughest teams to get a read on to begin the season.

On their day, St Kilda can beat anyone, but when the Saints are bad, they’re downright awful.

Collingwood, meanwhile, is in the midst of a transition phase with former Hawthorn forwards coach Craig McRae appointed as Nathan Buckley’s permanent replacement.

There’s still enough talent on the Pies’ list to build an argument for them making the eight but given their aging midfield and lack of options up forward, the chances of Collingwood finishing 10^th – 14^th appear much stronger.

The Saints, however, will see anything short of a finals berth as a disappointment.

Jack Billings, Jack Steele, and Max King are all towards the top of the competition at their respective positions, but there are major question marks around the midfield and whether the talent can be relied upon in big games.

Collingwood has won three of its last five games against St Kilda, but they were a bad bet as the underdogs last year winning just four from nine.

The Saints, on the other hand, don’t inspire much confidence given some of their blowout losses last season to Carlton, Essendon, and Richmond.

This all sets up for a very back and forth contest, so it’s probably worth sitting on the fence and playing it safe.

Tip: Either Team to Win By Less Than 15.5 Points @ $2.65

The Cats and the Bombers both follow similar scripts heading into Round 1.

Geelong was belted by a healthy margin in last year’s Prelim Final against Melbourne, while the Dons will be hoping to atone for their own blowout loss to the Dogs that has helped extend their finals drought to beyond 6,000 days.

Like always, big things are expected at the Cattery, but it’s the Bombers who have captured headlines throughout the offseason as experts continue to tip them to make the eight, and even win the flag.

The days of the “Baby Bombers” are seemingly over as most of Ben Rutten’s list prepares to enter its prime.

Big ruckman Sam Draper has turned into somewhat of a cult figure and is no doubt the leader of the future, while Jordan Ridley is quickly becoming one of the best interceptors of the ball in the back half.

The Dons would like to get Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti back on the field ASAP, but there’s still enough talent on the field to challenge a top Premiership contender like Geelong.

Andrew McGrath and Zach Merrett make up one of the best midfields in the game, while Jake Stringer is coming off a handy bounce back year that saw him kick 41 goals.

Geelong’s experienced list speaks for itself, but you do have to question the age of Chris Scott’s list with so many young clubs pushing for a top four spot.

Betting against a well-rested and healthy Geelong side to start the season is a risky play, but there’s a good chance the Bombers give this a red-hot shake.

Tip: Back the Bombers to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90

If this game turns out anything like last year’s Elimination Final, we should be in for a real treat.

The Giants fought off the Swans to win by a point in Tassie last year to advance to the Semi’s, their second win from three games against Sydney throughout the course of the season.

GWS will be without star forward Toby Greene to begin as he serves the first of his six-game suspension for touching an umpire.

Greene’s absence cost the Giants a couple of wins against the Gold Coast and Sydney towards the back end last season, but things have balanced out with Swans star forward Tom Papley set to miss Saturday’s clash with a hamstring strain.

The Swans have been another trendy pick to qualify for the eight after exceeding expectations last year, and there is no denying the talent available on John Longmire’s list.

Buddy Franklin stands atop in what might be his final year, while the midfield boasts plenty of experience with Luke Parker, Callum Mills, Ollie Florent and Josh Kennedy operating the engine room.

Papley’s brilliance will be missed, but the Swans shouldn’t find points hard to come by with proven goal kickers like Issac Heeney, Errol Gulden, Ben Ronke, and Buddy roaming inside 50.

The Giants gave up the second-most points among top eight teams last year and are also 2-5 against the Swans as home underdogs during their time in the competition.

With the Bloods out for revenge, the Swans represent enormous value at their current quote.

Tip: Back the Swans to Win @ $1.82

The Lions and Port both have serious flag aspirations after again coming up short in the finals last year.

Port thumped Geelong in the Qualifier to advance to the Prelim, only to meet their match against the Dogs in a forgettable 71 point hiding.

Brisbane, meanwhile, went out in straight sets against the Bulldogs in the Semi’s – a game that was arguably one of the greatest ever played.

Both clubs have had an eternity to reflect on what went wrong, but like the market suggests, this does shape as a nice bounce back spot for Brisbane playing at home.

The Gabbatoir was again a fortress for the Lions last year, and there is plenty of excitement surrounding Chris Fagan’s club with Lachie Neale back for another year, and Cam Rayner returning from injury.

Port features another very talented list, but as we’ve seen over the last few seasons, the Power midfield isn’t quite up to the level of the rest of the competition – excluding Brownlow winner Ollie Wines, of course.

Port’s forward line also went missing against the Dogs, and we saw a similar story unfold when the Power met the Lions last year at the Gabba in early May.

Brisbane has played to an outstanding 4-0 record as the home favourite against Port, and if they can play that hard-nosed, fast-paced brand of footy we saw throughout last season, they should be very tough to beat here.

Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90

This should be a telling game on Sunday afternoon between two genuine wooden spoon contenders.

The Sam Mitchell era at Hawthorn officially gets underway and it will be fascinating to watch the brown and gold play a new brand of footy for the first time in 16 years.

North Melbourne is also embarking on a second year under David Noble after finishing with the wooden spoon last season.

The Roos still have a decent chunk of talent on their roster in the form of Jack Ziebell, Jy Simpkin, and Ben Cunningham, as well as new additions Hugh Greenwood and Tom Lynch.

The same can also be said for Hawthorn as Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, and Luke Breust blend their experience with promising youngsters Will Day, Changkuoth Jiath, and Jack Scrimshaw.

It wasn’t so long ago that these two clubs were bitter rivals, and it’s worth noting neither team has won back-to-back games against the other since 2016.

To make matters more complicated, neither club looked particularly impressive in their respective preseason hit-outs a fortnight ago with both losing by huge double-digit margins.

Hawthorn’s lack of options up forward is a genuine concern, while North’s overall talent is up for debate.

Really, either side could win this game, but if returning superstars like Chad Wingard and James Sicily fire for the Hawks, they probably sneak home with a win.

Tip: Back the Hawks 1-39 @ $2.30

The Dockers should be playing with a chip on their shoulder when they visit the Crows on Sunday.

Freo was considered a top eight chance this time last year, right before major injuries and some general inconsistencies against inferior opponents got in the way.

On paper, Justin Longmuir’s side isn’t short on talent though, particularly through the midfield where names like Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, and emerging star Caleb Serong roam.

The Fremantle back line also proved formidable at times last season, while the forward line isn’t to be underestimated with Matthew Taberner and Michael Walters capable of kicking goals in a hurry.

None of this is to say the Crows can’t make a contest of this game, though.

Matthew Nicks’ was far from disgraced in its preseason trial against Port, while no one can forget Adelaide’s famous Round 1 victory over Geelong last year.

That said, the Dockers have won three of their last four against the Crows, and they’ve also played to a steady 2-1 mark as the away favourite.

There’s a good chance the Crows hang around in the first half here, but with their stars back healthy, this feels like an early statement game for Freo.

Tip: Back the Dockers 1-39 @ $2.35

The Suns face a tough trip to Perth to kick off their 2022 campaign on Sunday.

The Gold Coast are current favourites to finish the season with the least wins according to Ladbrokes bookmakers, largely due to a disastrous offseason that saw them lose Hugh Greenwood for absolutely nothing.

Make no mistake, the Suns won’t be easy beats with names like Izak Rankine, Matt Rowell, and Jack Lukosius on the roster, but they’ll need to be at their very best against an Eagles team they’ve never beaten in Perth.

Not to be outdone, the Eagles also had an interesting offseason that has revolved around Jack Darling’s vaccination status.

The star West Coast forward returned to the club last week in time to play Round 1, but Adam Simpson will likely be forced to draw upon several debutants with a handful of his top names injured.

It’s tough to feel confident in the Eagles given their disastrous preseason, but -11.5 points isn’t much to cover, with or without the likes of Luke Shuey.

Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90

2021

Nothing tops the excitement of Round 1 as all 18 clubs officially set their sights on that one special day in September.

This year’s opening game should have a familiar feel to it as fans are finally welcomed back to the MCG for the traditional clash between Richmond and Carlton, followed by what is arguably the game of the round on Friday between Collingwood and the Dogs.

As if tipping wasn’t already heard enough, punters are also faced with an evenly matched battle on Sunday when the Giants host the Saints in a potential finals preview.

For complete analysis on each and every game, be sure to read our 2021 AFL Round 1 Preview below.

Footy returns to the MCG for the first time in 256 days when Richmond hosts Carlton in the traditional season opener.

After claiming back-to-back flags last year with a Grand Final win over Geelong, the Tigers head into 2021 the firm Premiership favourites with Damien Hardwick retaining much of the same roster that has seen Richmond dominate over the last four seasons.

Carlton, on the other hand, will be looking to make their first finals appearance since 2013 after showing steady signs of improvement under David Teague.

While a top eight spot is a realistic goal this year for the Blues, it’s hard to ignore the fact the Tigers have won 10 straight over Carlton dating back to 2013.

The Blues gave Richmond a scare in the first half of last year’s season-opener before falling away in the fourth term to lose by 24.

With an injury cloud hanging over Eddie Betts, Levi Casboult and Jacob Weitering, we should see the Tigers roar in their usual dominant fashion.

Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-20.5 Points) @ $2.00

No surprise to find almost even money on offer between the Pies and Dogs on Friday night.

Anything short of a top eight spot would be a letdown for Collingwood this season, but missing out altogether wouldn’t shock following a forgetful offseason that culminated with former president Eddie Maguire resigning.

Speaking of the top eight, plenty of fans and pundits alike fancy the Dogs to not only play finals, but potentially venture inside top four territory.

Luke Beveridge’s side battled its way through the truncated COVID season to finish seventh on the ladder before ultimately losing a thrilling elimination final to the Saints.

With a young list full of talent, the Dogs can only improve on those efforts with Adam Treloar and Stefan Martin now in the fold.

Collingwood has won four straight over the Dogs dating back to 2018, but with Steele Sidebottom, Chris Mayne and Taylor Adams all 50/50 to play, the Dogs do standout as a huge value play head-to-head.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win @ $1.85

This shapes as one of the most difficult games to get a feel for on Saturday between two fringe top eight sides.

Melbourne hasn’t won in Round 1 since 2017, so it is a little surprising to find the Dees as the firm favourites in what is no doubt a make-or-break year for head coach Simon Goodwin.

Fremantle, meanwhile, has been a popular pick to play finals this season behind what is arguably one of the best defensive structures in the league.

The Dockers have a long list of young talent set to enter their prime and they also found themselves in more close games than not last year.

As far as the Dees go, your guess is as good as ours.

The addition of Ben Brown speaks for itself, but since he’s set to miss the first month of the season with a knee injury, it’s difficult to know where Melbourne will find points from against an elite defensive team like the Dockers.

Fremantle had its fair share of troubles away from home in the weird and whacky 2020 season, but they still managed to play to a 4-1 record as the away underdog.

Right now, the Dockers look a much clearer picture than Melbourne, so it’s hard to go past Freo with some insurance on offer.

Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the Line (+13.5 Points) @ $2.00

The Cats have spent the offseason re-stocking in the hope of returning to the big dance.

After coming up short to Richmond in last year’s Grand Final at the Gabba, Geelong wasted no time getting busy on the trade market by striking a huge deal with GWS in exchange for star forward Jeremy Cameron.

Also joining the Cattery this year is former North Melbourne midfielder Shaun Higgins and three-time Premiership winner Issac Smith – both of whom will contribute massively to what is shaping up to be one of the most experienced lists in the league.

Meanwhile, in Adelaide, things are quite the opposite.

The Crows are in the midst of a lengthy rebuild that has recently seen them lose Brad Crouch and Rory Atkins to free agency.

As far as Saturday’s game goes, you only need to consider all of the above to get a feel for what to expect.

While it can sometimes take a few games for a new roster to gel, the Cats are impossible to tip against based on their talent advantage.

With the chance to get the sour taste of last year’s Grand Final out of their mouth against an inferior opponent, Geelong should be winning this by plenty.

Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-25.5 Points) @ $2.00

Two bitter rivals square off on Saturday night as footy finally returns to Marvel Stadium.

The Hawks are the slight favourites in betting following a big preseason with over North Melbourne, but really, there isn’t a whole lot separating these two sides.

The Bombers clawed their way back from a six-goal deficit against the Hawks last year at the Adelaide Oval thanks to a huge return game from Joe Daniher.

Unfortunately, the big man has since departed The Hangar in favour of greener pastures up in Brisbane, leaving the bulk share of the work in the hands of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Jake Stringer.

In terms of expectations, it’s hard to know where to place these two teams.

So long as Alastair Clarkson is at the helm, the Hawks will likely always be a finals threat, but there’s no denying this young lineup looks very vulnerable with key defender James Sicily still nursing an ACL injury and veteran names like Paul Puopolo and Ben Stratton retired.

Likewise, the Bombers are much worse off than they are a year ago with Daniher, Adam Saad and Orazio Fantasia all departing via free agency.

The last three games between these two sides have gone over the total, and with a serious lack of defensive talent on the field overall, it wouldn’t be surprising if a similar outcome unfolds.

Tip: Over 170.5 Total Points @ $1.88

The Lions return to their Gabba fortress on Saturday night hoping to make a statement against the Swans.

With just about everything working in their favour last year, Brisbane’s season ended abruptly one stop short of the Grand Final with a demoralizing loss to Geelong.

Much like the Cats though, the Lions addressed their shortcomings during the offseason by signing key forward Joe Daniher in an attempt to rid themselves of the goal-kicking woes that cost them down the stretch.

Unfortunately, Brisbane’s forward line suffered a slight setback last week with fellow forward Cam Rayner tearing his ACL, but the good news is the Lions have a tremendous amount of depth to fall back on all over the field.

The Swans, on the other hand, continue to rebuild.

Sydney drafted two very talented players in the draft, but a win against this star-studded Lions team does look a tough ask after losing key defender Aliir Aliir during the trade period.

Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $1.91

The projections for these two clubs couldn’t be further apart.

After dominating to win the minor premiership last year, the Power are heavily favoured to finish inside the top four after adding names like Aliir Aliir and Orazio Fantasia during the trade period.

North, on the other hand, have been well-backed to secure the wooden spoon after a mass exodus that has seen Ben Brown, Shaun Higgins and Mason Wood depart the club.

Plenty was made of Port’s dominance in the forward line last year, but the Power were also a great defensive side allowing the second-fewest goals to opponents.

When you factor in North ranked second-last in goals scored in 2020, this one could get ugly in a hurry.

Tip: Back Port to Cover the Line (-30.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Giants will take to their home turf for the first time in over eight months on Sunday in what looks to be one of the most intriguing contests of Round 1.

GWS struggled mightily to adjust to hub life last year up in Queensland, a far cry from their Grand Final runner-up performance a year earlier in the loss to Richmond.

The Saints enjoyed a much more pleasant COVID season that culminated in their first finals appearance since 2011.

St Kilda has been a popular pick to play finals again this year, although this does look to be a difficult start to the season away from home.

The Saints are 0-2 at GIANTS Stadium since GWS entered the competition, while they’ll also have to go about their business without James Frawley and Dan Hanneberry.

Leon Cameron also has some injury concerns to address in what is shaping up to be a ‘finals or bust’ kind of year.

Jesse Hogan and Lachie Whitfield look unlikely to play, but that hasn’t swayed the bookies from installing the Giants as favourites in betting.

Overall, GWS are one of the few team’s worthy of a mulligan heading into 2021.

The Giants opened 6-4 before hub-life kicked in last year and there is still enough talent and quality on their list to suggest they can get back to finals.

With home-field advantage and a renewed sense of hope, the market might just be right on this occasion.

Tip: Back the Giants 1-39 @ $2.20

West Coast will be eager to begin the season on the right foot on Sunday when they take on the Suns in front 45,000 fans at Optus Stadium.

The Eagles’ Perth fortress proved to be a difference maker last year as West Coast turned its early season woes around with five straight home wins through the month of August.

After finishing the season fifth on the ladder, West Coast’s season culminated with a shock one-point loss at home to Collingwood in the elimination final – a performance Adam Simpson’s side has no doubt been stewing on all offseason.

As for the Suns, let’s just say the glass is finally half full.

Gold Coast’s season took a turn for the worst last year after Rising Star favourite Matt Rowell suffered a season-ending shoulder injury, but the good news is the league’s most exciting young player is set to suit up in Round 1 alongside a strong supporting cast featuring Izak Rankine, Ben King and Jack Lukosius.

Betting against West Coast at home is tough, but the Suns have typically been a gritty team early on in the season.

Given, the Suns have never won against the Eagles in Perth, but the current line is still pretty generous for a team that was competitive on several occasions last year.

Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+27.5 Points) @ $1.90

2020

The AFL announced on Wednesday that the 2020 season will go ahead just in time for Thursday’s season-opener between Richmond and Carlton.

As is the case with the NRL, footy will be played behind closed doors indefinitely, making betting and tipping even harder than it was to begin with.

No crowd could take some of the pressure off the players, resulting in lower scoring games. Or, it could favour the away side with no home crowd to compete with.

There are plenty of factors to consider this week, but we’ve chosen to keep it simple and tip how we normally would in our complete 2020 AFL Round 1 Preview below.

This time last year the Blues gave the Tigers a real run for their money in the first three quarters, but the question is, can they do it again?

Carlton will fancy themselves if they don’t have to face the Richmond army at the ‘G on Thursday night.

David Teague’s side came within 28 points of eventual champs when they met for a second time in Round 21, and they certainly have enough talent up forward to give the Tigers back line plenty of problems.

With their last meeting in mind, the bookies are favouring the defending premiers by -22.5 here, which looks a little long for the first game of the season.

Richmond has won nine straight over the Blues dating back to 2013, so backing against the Tigers outright isn’t advised. Carlton did, however, cover the line in seven of their 11 games as the line underdog on the road last year, so if you include the strange circumstances, there’s every chance the Blues keep this close.

Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90

It’s a shame this game will be played behind closed doors because we should be in for a belter between two sides with serious top four credentials.

Collingwood are always one of the toughest teams to get a read on at the start of the season – especially on the back of last year’s miserable finals defeat to the Giants.

The Bulldogs also tasted defeat against GWS in the finals, but Luke Beveridge’s side has only gotten stronger after adding Josh Bruce during the offseason.

There isn’t much separating these two clubs and it would be shocking if more than 10-points decided it.

Collingwood has won three straight over the Dogs dating back to 2017, but the one trend worth hanging your hat on is the Doggies’ perfect 4-0 record last year as the line underdog at home.

This is also an extremely tough start to the season for the Pies with games against Richmond, Hawthorn and Brisbane to follow. With everything else going on right now, don’t be surprised if they underestimate this gritty Bulldogs outfit.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Bombers have had an entire offseason to stew on their 55-point loss to West Coast in the finals last year, so what version of the sash will we see on Saturday?

Anything short of repeat top eight performance will be seen as a bust with John Worsfold facing a make or break year, and he certainly won’t hold fond memories of last years 72-point Round 1 loss to GWS.

Speaking of bad memories, the Dockers don’t have to look back very far to find their last meeting against the Bombers.

Fremantle lost by 32-points at home to the Dons in Round 22 last year, but with Justin Longmuir entering his first full season as head coach, there is a little optimism about the Dockers as a potential sleeper.

There are a handful of games that could produce an upset this week and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if the Bombers were on the receiving end. Despite where they finished last year, there isn’t as much between these clubs as the current market suggests, so take the Dockers to keep the pressure on the Dons in the first half.

Tip: Back Fremantle to Cover the 1^st Half Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

This is another game that could swing in the balance and turn out to be a rather close affair.

The Crows and the Swans are both tipped to miss the eight in our season preview, making this one of the toughest games to try and tip from a betting perspective.

Adelaide lost their home-opener to Hawthorn by 32-points last year, but this is a much easier test against a rebuilding Swans team minus Buddy Franklin.

To their credit, Sydney has won three straight over the Crows, but they haven’t played Adelaide at home since 2017.

Last year Adelaide finished 3-2 at home against teams that finished in the bottom eight, so back that trend to continue.

Tip: Back the Crows to Win @ $1.70

One team looking to make amends and the other looking to avoid a hangover – what more could you want?

The Giants will understand how important a win is here as they look to put their horror Grand Final loss behind them.

Likewise, Geelong has plenty of lost time to make up for after losing to the Tigers in the Prelim, setting up what should be a cracking game between two flag contenders.

The Giants got the better of the Cats when they met in Round 4 last year with a four-point victory, but the whole “behind closed doors” thing makes this one of the trickiest games to predict.

Ordinarily, you’d feel pretty confident in backing GWS at home, but there isn’t much of a home-field advantage here.

Instead, this game should be a real arm wrestle between the Geelong backline and the GWS forward line, as well as a fairly even battle through the midfield.

With that in mind, and the fact the last four games between these two have all gone Under, take this one to be low scoring.

Tip: Under the Points Total

A new season brings fresh hope to all 18 teams, and that couldn’t be truer for last year’s wooden spooners, the Gold Coast Suns.

Opening the season at home to Port Adelaide is a favourable spot for Stuart Dew’s side after losing by only a point to St Kilda in Round 1 last year.

The Suns showed plenty of fight in the first month of the season to pick up wins over the Dockers, Bulldogs and Blues, but unfortunately, the fun stopped there as they failed to win another game from Round 4 onward.

Port Adelaide are obviously the more talented team and the odds more than reflect that. But after an offseason that featured very little player movement, there’s just something about the Suns here that stands out.

Gold Coast are the ugly ducklings and sometimes it pays to back them. This is a young team with a point to prove against a Power side that has plenty of critics to answer.

Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+16.5 Points) @ $1.90

Two coaches stepping into their first full season square off on Sunday in a game that should tell us plenty.

Brett Ratten knows how to bring out the best in a young team, which has led to many pundits tipping the Saints to finish inside top eight this season.

It’s also a new era at Arden Street as Rhyce Shaw looks to prove the doubters wrong. We got a good taste of North Melbourne’s new front man for half a season last year, and there is still enough talent for the Kangaroos to challenge for a finals spot.

As far as this game goes though, you’d be mad not to take a play in the head-to-head market. The Roos have won three straight over St Kilda dating back to 2017, but really, this game is nothing more than a coin flip.

I’m happy to side with St Kilda here though purely based on North’s horrible back line. The addition of Paddy Ryder to the ruck should go a long way, and the Saints typically beat up on weaker teams like the Gold Coast, Demons, Blues and Dockers last year. The $1.80 presents enormous value.

Tip: Back St Kilda to Win @ $1.80

Brisbane fans have been licking their lips at the mere thought of this game ever since the schedule was released last year.

The Lions have held Hawthorn’s number dating back to 2017, which includes a pair of blowout victories both home and away over the Hawks last season.

Brisbane’s expectations have skyrocketed ever since finishing second on the ladder, which could work one of two ways. The Lions are still one of the most talented sides in the competition, but whether the pressure becomes too much for the younger guys remains to be seen.

Things are similar at Hawthorn with the club looking to return to the finals after finishing ninth last year. Alastair Clarkson has another bright squad on his hands, but several players are still a year or two away from really hitting their stride.

Brisbane fed off their surprisingly strong support on the road last year, particularly in Melbourne, so the lack of a crowd makes this interesting.

The Hawks, meanwhile, haven’t lost in Round 1 since 2017, so there’s every chance they keep this close. Hawthorn’s forward line will need to be at its best if they wish to keep up with the quick-scoring ways of Brisbane, but if they can contain Charlie Cameron, they look seriously good value at the line.

Tip: Back Hawthorn to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90

Are we in for a repeat of the 2018 Prelim here?

The last thing the Demons need right now is a trip to Perth to face the Eagles. West Coast has a point to prove after losing to Geelong in the Semi’s last year, while Melbourne is simply trying to figure out what went wrong over the last 12 months.

Building a case for the Demons to win on the road seems almost impossible when you factor in how poorly they played in front of goal last year. Inside 50s weren’t a problem, but accuracy in front of goal was as Melbourne continues to let chances slip through their fingertips.

Since there is no crowd, there should be a little less pressure on the Demons though without the usual chorus of boos heard at Optus Stadium. Therefore, take the Eagles to win, but maybe not by much.

Tip: Back West Coast 1-39 @ $2.30

2019

The road to that glorious September sunshine starts this week as the 2019 AFL season gets underway on Thursday night.

Typically, Round 1 can be a bit of a crapshoot, so it’s always worth mixing in a few favourites with a few bold upsets to start the season on a winning note. Fortunately, we’ve previewed every game and every team, and our complete 2019 AFL Round 1 Preview can be seen below.

To say it’s been a dramatic offseason would be an understatement. Richmond got busy signing Tom Lynch to a lucrative seven-year deal, while the Blues lucked out as co-captain Sam Docherty suffered a season-ending ACL tear.

Since it is Round 1, try not to let the wide price for Carlton sway you. The Blues were up for a fight this time last year booting five unanswered goals in the opening term to lead the premiers at halftime. Of course, Richmond’s prowess proved too much for the eventual wooden spooners, but there’s no reason Carlton can’t keep Thursday’s game close for the second-straight year.

For Richmond, it’s the start of something new after an embarrassing loss to Collingwood in last year’s Prelim. Lynch’s inclusion should speak for itself on the goal-sheet, but it’s also a huge year for Dustin Martin as he looks to bounce-back from what was a quiet season (at least by his usual standards).

As for Carlton, you hate to put too much stock into Round 1, but this game could set the tone for their season. The Blues should be up and about following a win over the Bombers and a close loss to Collingwood in the JLT Series. Whether or not they can handle Richmond’s relentless forward pressure will be the test.

It’s worth keeping in mind the Tigers have won seven-straight over the Blues, while they also finished 6-3 against the line last season. In their last five meetings however, Carlton have lost by a combined average of 26.8 points, leaving Thursday’s line looking a little generous.

Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+36.5 Points)

Blockbuster, headline act, whatever you want to call it – can this game live up to the hype?

The Cats met the Pies only once last year in what was a low-scoring, 111-point affair. Geelong walked away the 21-point victor, a result that went on to kick-start Collingwood’s seven-game undefeated  streak.

Like so many of the big clubs, it’s been a busy offseason for the Cats. By pairing Luke Dahlhaus with Patrick Dangerfield, Geelong have not only bolstered their midfield, they’ve also locked up the 26-year-old sensation long term.

Collingwood’s offseason was a little quieter, although the Pies did get to work re-signing some of their top contributors. Tyson Goldsack, Jamie Elliott, Darcy Moore and Levi Greenwood inked new deals, while the club also lost long-time forward Jarryd Blair.

As far as Friday’s game goes, there’s a couple things to consider. Firstly, the Cats have won three-straight games in Round 1 dating back to 2016, while the Pies haven’t won the opening round since 2015. And second, Collingwood finished 8-1 as the home favourite last year, however they are just 2-2 in the same scenario against Geelong.

After a monumental collapse in last year’s Grand Final, don’t be surprised if we see a bit of a hangover effect on Friday night.

Tip: Back Geelong To Win @ $2.28

Out with the old and in with the new – that’s been the philosophy for both clubs this past offseason.

Melbourne waved goodbye to Jesse Hogan in a trade with Freo and welcomed in Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij from the Suns. Port also got to work after missing the finals last year – trading forward Chad Wingard to Hawthorn in exchange for Ryan Burton.

It’s safe to say Port will fancy themselves for the eight this year, but there’s plenty of lost time to make up for. The Power sat atop the ladder by Round 3 last year, only to lose their final four games to miss the finals completely.

Melbourne, well the Demons certainly exceeded expectations overall, but they fell well short against West Coat in last year’s Prelim Final. Simon Goodwin’s side failed to prepare, going on to lose by 66-points in what was a huge learning curve for a young side.

As the market suggests, the Dees are heavily favoured to open with a win on Saturday. Melbourne finished 7-4 as the home favourite last year, while they also finished 14-5 in all games as the spread favourite.

Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (-26.5 Points)

It’s only fitting that two of the biggest question marks entering the 2019 season clash on Saturday.

The Crows, who somehow missed the eight by only four-points, should feel confident entering the season despite losing Mitch McGovern to Carlton. Meanwhile, Hawthorn’s outlook is probably less optimistic following the season-ending injury to Tom Mitchell.

We’ve been burned by Alistair Clarkson’s coaching genius before though, and there is something to be said about this Hawks outfit that rallied for a Top 4 spot despite the retirement of Cyril Rioli, as well as injuries to the likes of James Sicily and Shaun Burgoyne last season.

Hawthorn have won their last three trips to Adelaide Oval to face the Crows, but after an 0-2 JLT season that saw the Hawks fall away in the second half of both games, play it safe and take Clarkson’s side at the line.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+20.5 Points)

This is more than just a rematch of the 2016 Grand Final – it’s the chance for the Dogs to pick up where they left off last season.

The Bulldogs finished 13^th on the ladder in 2018, but the last time we saw them in action they were taking the Tigers to the sword at the MCG. Speaking of close games, the Dogs lost by only seven-points during their lone match against the Swans last year, and after what has been a successful offseason in exhibition matches, don’t look past a Round 1 upset on Saturday.

The Dogs lost reliable players like Jordan Roughead to free agency, but in return they gained Taylor Duryea from Hawthorn, a gutsy midfielder that could fill Luke Dahlhaus’ shoes.

Sydney also said goodbye to long-term faithful Dan Hannebery and Gary Rohan, but on the plus side, the Swans gained 27-year-old Daniel Menzel in free agency.

With all that in mind, it goes without saying this game is tricky. Including the Grand Final, the Dogs have won three of their last five against the Swans, however their 2-5 record as the home underdog over the last 12-months is less than encouraging.

Instead, it’s worth noting that in those last five games, only once has the Total gone over 170-points. Value wise it’s not much, but as we try to get a feel for both sides, play it safe with the Unders.

Tip: Back Under 178.5 Total Points

The reigning premiers return to The Gabba on Saturday night, a venue that’s turned into a bit of a stomping ground for the Eagles over the last decade.

West Coast have won seven-straight over the Lions dating back to 2010 by an average margin of 33.2 points, leaving the line looking a little short in this one despite what could be a big season from Chris Fagan’s young Lions squad.

For Brisbane, it’s been quite an up and down offseason. Lachie Neale and Lincoln McCarthy were the top grabs, but the shock trade of Dayne Beams to Collingwood now leaves the Lions short one of their biggest leaders.

Still, Brisbane are coached by perhaps one of the most innovative and positive minds in the game. Fagan has helped this team grow enormously, so a Round 1 upset at home over West Coast isn’t entirely off the cards… is it?

West Coast’s premiership side remains relatively intact, but they’ll still be without Nic Naitanui at least until Round 9 or 10. Nic Nat has tormented the Lions in recent years, but the same can be said for Daniel Rich, who has racked up 98 disposals in his last five games against the Eagles.

That’s what it will take for the Lions this week: a big effort from Rich, Dayne Zorko and most importantly, the back line against Josh Kennedy. After losing to the Eagles in the final round last season, the Lions are more than up for a bit of revenge.

Tip: Back the Lions to Win @ $2.32

If you’ll recall, the Saints and the Suns put on a show when they met last year on the Gold Coast. St. Kilda held on for a narrow two-point win in what was arguably the sloppiest game of the season, so what does this Round 1 rematch hold instore?

The Saints made some moves during the offseason adding Dan Hannebery and Sam Rowe. Gold Coast weren’t so lucky as Tom Lynch departed for Richmond, while the Suns also lost Steven May and Kade Kolodjashnij to the Demons.

It’s not exactly ‘Top 8 or bust’ for St. Kilda this year, but if the Saints finished towards the bottom of the ladder again, mark it as a huge disappointment.

St. Kilda won only two games on the road last year, two more than the Suns won at home. Given the unknown nature of both clubs, picking a winner is tough. The Saints started as the favourite at home only twice last season, finishing 1-1 at the line. Gold Coast, meanwhile, were 6-5 as the away underdog, and with a generous line on offer, the Suns look good money to keep this close.

Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+25.5 Points) @ $1.90

Could we be looking at a potential Top 4 clash here?

GWS finished seventh on the ladder last season, bowing out in the Semi-Finals to Collingwood in a 10-point loss at the G’. As for the Dons, an injury plagued season cost Essendon a spot in the eight, but Bomber fans will take stock in the fact 2018 ended on a high note defeating the Power by plenty at Adelaide Oval.

When these two sides met last season, it was a surprisingly one-sided affair as Essendon walked away with a 95-60 win at Spotless Stadium. Mark Baguley unleashed three goals on the day alongside Jake Stringer, as the Giants struggled to cope with the Bombers’ relentless forward pressure.

This time around, the Bombers will go without former captain Brendon Goddard, while the new inclusion of former Giant Dylan Shiel adds a nice little subplot to Sunday’s twilight affair.

As the away underdog the Bombers finished 5-6 last year, however they were a much more impressive 4-2 on the road. With a little uncertainty and a few key departures (Shiel and Tom Scully), the Bombers look great odds for another upset.

Tip: Back the Bombers To Win @ $2.07

The AFL has hardly saved the best till’ last, but for what it’s worth, this Round 1 twilight affair could provide a sneak peek into the wooden spoon race.

North Melbourne lost a couple of big guns during the offseason, namely Jarrad Waite (retirement) and Billy Hartung. In return, the Shinboners added Jared Polec and a handful of other players on one-year deals.

Fremantle’s season hinges on the health of Nat Fyfe, but the Dockers did land Jesse Hogan in a trade with the Demons, as well as 26-year-old forward Rory Lobb from the Giants. Both moves have helped bolster Freo’s lackluster forward pack after scoring the third-fewest goals in 2018.

On paper, the Dockers clearly win on talent, but keep in mind, this is roughly the same side that lost to North Melbourne by 28-points at home last year. As the odds suggest, throw a dart and hope for the best, but considering Freo do hold a 6-5 record as the home favourite over the last 12-months, the Dockers are probably worth a small play.

Tip: Back the Dockers to Win @ $2.00

2018

The 2018 AFL season is here and we can’t wait for what will be a massive weekend of action.

It will be an emotional moment for Richmond fans when the Premiership is unfurled on Thursday and they are dominant favourites to account for Carlton in the season opener.

That is just the start of what is set to be a massive weekend of AFL action and our complete AFL Round 1 tips can be found below!

It should come as no surprise that Richmond will start this clash with Carlton as dominant favourites.

The Tigers were nothing short of outstanding during the 2017 AFL Finals and they have shown no signs of a Premiership hangover during the preseason – they recorded big wins over both Essendon and North Melbourne in the JLT Series.

Richmond have had a very stable off-season and they head into their season opener with a very similar side to the one that took on the Adelaide Crows in the 2018 AFL Grand Final.

The Tigers won 11 of their 14 games as favourites last season and they were able to cover the line in ten of these wins.

Carlton showed some promise during the 2017 AFL season, but they still lacked consistency and they will be without All-Australian defender Sam Docherty for the entire season.

Kicking goals was a big issue for Carlton 12 months ago and once again it is tough to see where their points will come from.

The Blues won six of their past 19 games as underdogs last season for a small profit and they were 13-8 against the line when being given a start.

The market looks to have this match just about right as Richmond deserve to be dominant favourites, but there is still value in the Total Points betting market.

Backing the Under was a profitable betting play in games involved either of these teams last season and it would not surprise if this was a fairly low-scoring affair.

Back Under 174.5 Points

This will be a very interesting clash between two teams that are expected to be in the finals mix once again in 2018.

The Adelaide Crows were the most consistent team in the AFL last season and it is a shame for the club that they saved one of their worst performances of the season for the AFL Grand Final.

Adelaide have lost Jake Lever to Melbourne, but they have finally gotten their hands on Bryce Gibbs and they now have one of the most complete midfields in the competition.

They will go into this clash as favourites and they did win 7 of their ten games as away favourites last season, while they were 6-4 against the line when giving away a start.

Essendon returned to the top 8 last season and big things are expected of the Bombers after they added the likes of Jake Stringer, Adam Saad and Devon Smith to their list during the Trade Period.

The Bombers were one of the best betting sides in the entire AFL last season and they won five of their seven games as home favourites for a huge profit.

This is another game where the value does look to lie in the Total Points betting market.

The Under saluted in seven of the 11 away games played by the Crows away from the Adelaide Oval last season, while the Under was also a profitable play in Essendon games in 2017.

Back Under 189.5 Points

This will be an interesting test to see where each of these teams are at the start of the season.

Consistency and a lack of depth was the big issue for St Kilda last season and they haven’t done much during the off-season to fix their depth.

St Kilda will start this clash as clear favourites and they did win five of their seven games as home favourites last season, but they were only 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

The Brisbane Lions were unable to avoid the wooden spoon in 2017, but they still took some big steps in the right direction and they should improve against in 2018.

Adding a player with the experience of Luke Hodge is massive for a club that has badly lacked leadership in recent seasons and he is the perfect on-field coach for what is a young defence.

Brisbane only won two of their 11 games as away underdogs, but they were a most impressive 9-2 against the line in this situation and were generally underestimate by the market.

I don’t think that there is as much between the two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Lions are a great bet to beat the line with a healthy start.

Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+24. 5 Points)

Port Adelaide are clear favourites to start their season with a win over Fremantle.

Port Adelaide’s season may have finished in disappointing circumstances as they were knocked out in the first week of the AFL Finals, but they still only just missed the top four and they were far more consistent than they have been in recent seasons.

The Power won eight of their 11 games as home favourites and they were able to cover the line in six of these wins.

Fremantle started 2017 fairly strong and they recorded a couple of big upset wins, but that did somewhat hide the fact that they won only two of their past 12 games and were putrid in the second half of the season.

The Dockers do have a young list with potential and they are a tricky team to analyse ahead of the 2018 AFL season.

Fremantle won only three of their ten games as away underdogs last season, but they were 6-4 against the line.

This is a game that the market looks to have just about right and this is a match that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.

No Bet

There is very little in betting between these two sides that are expected to be in the wooden spoon mix.

It was another season to forget for the Gold Coast Suns in 2017 and they have lost plenty of experience in the form of Gary Ablett, Brandon Matera and Adam Saad.

The Suns have been a very tough side to trust from a betting perspective throughout their history and they won only one of their four games as home favourites last season.

North Melbourne were expected to struggle in 2017 and they did at times, but they probably weren’t as bad as the majority of experts thought they would be ahead of the season.

Their midfield still lacks talent, but they do have an excellent forward line and Ben Brown was nothing short of outstanding last season.

The Kangaroos won only two of their ten games as away underdogs last season for a clear loss, but they were 6-4 against the line in this scenario.

Both games played between these two sides last season were high-scoring affairs and that has generally been the pattern when these teams have met.

The Total Points line has been set at 159.5 points and as long as the rain stays away that does not look like anywhere near enough.

Back Over 159.5 Points

This is another game where there is not a great deal between the two sides and it is Hawthorn that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Hawthorn were extremely slow out of the blocks in 2017, but they did improve significantly in the second half of the season and they are a side that could go either way in 2018.

The Hawks won only three of their seven games as favourites last season and they were a poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

Collingwood went another season without playing finals in 2017 and they have done very little to improve their list during the off-season.

There is no coach in the AFL under more pressure than Nathan Buckley and an opening round win would help ease the pressure on the constantly under-fire coach.

Collingwood did win four of their ten games last season for a clear profit and they were 8-2 against the line in this situation.

This is a game where I really have struggled to separate the two sides and it is Collingwood that represent just a touch of value at their current price of $2.

Back Collingwood To Win @ $2

The GWS Giants and the Western Bulldogs have played a number of outstanding games in recent years – most notably their famous Preliminary Final in 2016 – and this should be another cracker.

2017 represented another missed opportunity for the Giants and what was expected to be an inevitable dynasty may not be inevitable at all.

The Giants were a tricky side from a betting perspective last season – they generally got the job done when they were expected to, but their record against the line was very poor.

They did not lose a game as home favourites last season, but they were 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

A premership hangover was blamed for the woes of Western Bulldogs in 2017 and they are another team that could go either way this season.

Will they follow in the path of Hawthorn – who bounced back after their premiership hangover in 2009 – or will they become the first team in the modern era to miss the finals in the two seasons after winning the flag?

Winning away from home was a serious issue for the Bulldogs last season and they lost all four of their game as away underdogs, while they were only a middling 2-2 against the line in that scenario.

This is yet another game where the value lies in the Total Points betting market.

The Under saluted in an incredible ten of the 11 games played by Hawthorn away from home last season and the Total Points line of 173.5 points does seem excessive.

Back Under 173.5 Points

The market cannot split Melbourne and Geelong ahead of this Sunday afternoon blockbuster at the MCG.

Geelong were once again in the Premiership mix in 2017 and there is plenty of excitement around the city following the return of The Prodigal son Gary Ablett.

The Cats now under one of the greatest midfield trios in the history of the AFL, but there are injury clouds over Ablett and Joel Sellwood, while Patrick Dangerfield is all but certain to miss the opening round of the season.

Geelong do have an outstanding record against Melbourne and they did beat the Demons by a big margin last season.

It was a long offseason for Melbourne fans after their final round meltdown cost them a top eight finish and anything less than a return to the AFL Finals will be considered a huge failure in 2018.

Melbourne generally struggled against the best teams in the competition last season and they need to improve their record against the likes of Geelong if they are going to take the next step this season.

The Cats may go into this clash without Dangerfield, but their record against Melbourne can’t be ignored and they do represent genuine value at their current price.

Back Geelong To Win @ $1.92

The West Coast Eagles may have the homeground advantage at the brand-new Optus Stadium, but it is the Sydney Swans that will start this clash as clear favourites.

2017 was nothing short of a bizarre season for the Swans.

They started the season 0-6 and looked to have no answers whatsoever, but they lost just two games for the remainder of the regular season and they finished comfortably inside the top eight.

The Swans did win five of their eight games as away favourites last season and they were able to cover the line in each of those wins.

West Coast not only managed to make the finals last season, they went on to beat Port Adelaide and that definitely shadowed the fact that they did struggle at times last season.

It is rare to see West Coast as such heavy underdogs in front of their home fans and they were able to win eight of their 11 games as home last season and they did beat Sydney comfortably.

It really is difficult to oppose West Coast in Perth and they can cover the line with the healthy start of 17.5 points.

Back West Coast To Beat The Line (+17.5 Points)

2017

It is finally here!

The 2017 AFL season gets underway on Thursday night and we are set for what should be a truly fascinating opening round of action, so we have put together our 2017 AFL Round 1 tips.

There are no absolutely dominant favourites in round one and every single game is set to be a competitive affair, but we are still confident that we have found some winners.

The traditional start to the AFL season is the always intriguing clash between Carlton and Richmond.

Carlton made a promising start to the season in 2016 before they faded badly in the final third of the year and it looks set to be another rebuilding year for the Blues.

Scoring points was there biggest problem last season and they really have not done a great deal to improve on that this season.

Richmond were one of the biggest disappointments in the entire competition last year and they are at long odds to return to the finals.

The Tigers have signed Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy to add depth to their midfield, but they have lost Brett Deledio and Ty Vickery in the process.

Richmond will start this clash as favourites and this is a position in which they struggled last season.

The Tigers won only six of their ten games as favourites last season and were an extremely putrid 2-8 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton were actually a profitable betting side in the AFL last season and they won five of their 17 games as underdogs for a clear profit.

There is nowhere near as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and Carlton are excellent value to start the season with a win.

Carlton To Win @ $2.85

This will be a big moment for fans of the Western Bulldogs as their side will run out as defending premiers for the first time in 62 years.

The Western Bulldogs were nothing short of outstanding in the 2016 AFL Finals and there is every chance they will be even better in 2017.

I have no doubt that the Bulldogs will be in the premiership mix come the business end of the season, but I have my concerns about how well they will start the year.

The premiership hangover is a real thing – especially for a young side – and there is every chance that the Bulldogs will be slow out of the gates.

Collingwood were the biggest underperformers in the AFL last season and the pressure really is on Nathan Buckley to turn them around in 2017.

They are a team that lacks an on-field identity and that will need to change if they are any chance of returning to finals football.

The Magpies did win three of their six games as home underdogs last season for a clear profit and they are capable of a stellar performance on their day.

This will be closer than the current market suggests and I am keen to back the Magpies with a start of 15.5 points.

Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+15.5 Points)

This is an intriguing clash between two sides that are expected to push for a place in the top eight.

St Kilda only missed out on the finals by percentage last season and they only need to improve slightly to make the jump into the top eight this season.

If they are to make that leap they will need to win games like this one and they go into this clash as narrow favourites.

St Kilda did win all three of their games as home favourites last season, while they have won their past 14 games against the Demons.

There is no doubt that Melbourne are a side on the rise and they have added some serious talent to their side in the form of Jordan Lewis, Michael Hibberd and Jake Melksham.

Inconsistency was an issue for the Demons and they will be hopeful that these mature recruits will make them a more reliable week-to-week proposition.

Melbourne were a profitable betting play as underdogs last season, but the fact that their record against St Kilda is so poor is a serious concern.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right, but it is still set to be a fascinating affair.

No Bet

The Sydney Swans are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend and are expected to make short work of Port Adelaide.

Sydney were only narrowly denied another premiership by the Western Bulldogs last season and they are sure to be in contention once again.

The Swans are the consistent force of the AFL and they look a lock to finish in the top four once again.

Sydney won 10 of their 14 games as home favourites last season and more impressively they were 9-5 against the line in this scenario.

Port Adelaide took another step backwards in terms of their position on the ladder last season, but they weren’t actually as bad as that suggests.

Their percentage was the best of the teams that missed out on the AFL Finals and they are still capable of playing some excellent football on their day.

This is a big season for Ken Hinkley and he is sure to have his side ready to fire early.

The Power actually won two of their four games as away underdogs last season, but they were no match for Sydney and they have not beaten the Swans since 2013.

Sydney really should be able to get their season off to a winning start, but their is no value at their current price and this is another game that I am happy to stay out of.

No Bet

Both the Gold Coast Suns and the Brisbane Lions had seasons to forget and they will be looking to make a positive start to the season.

Off-field problems continue to distract the Suns and there has been plenty of drama surrounding GaryAblett during the pre-season, but it should not be forgotten that the Suns have one of the most talented lists in the competition.

Anything is possible for the Suns this season – they could just as easily compete for the wooden spoon as a spot in the top eight – but they really should be able to make a winning start to the season.

The Suns did not start many games as favourites last season, but when they did they generally got the job done and they beat the line in four of their six games as home favourites.

Chris Fagan has taken over at the Brisbane Lions and is a very shrewd appointment, but it is tough to see him turning this list around in a season.

The Lions were lucky not to win the wooden spoon last year and they played uninspiring football right across the season.

Brisbane won just one of their 11 games as away underdogs and they were a very poor 3-8 against the line.

The Suns should really make a winning start to their season and the line of 19.5 points will not be enough.

Back Gold Coast To Beat The Line (-19.5 Points)

This is a massive moment for the Essendon Football Club as their suspended players are set to return to a heroes welcome.

There is no doubt that Essendon will be a much better football team in 2017, but expectations may have been hyped somewhat after their promising pre-season.

Taking a year out of your career is a setback for any player, but when there are 12 of these players on the same list it is sure to have even more of an impact.

In saying that, there is a fair bit to like about Essendon heading into this clash against Hawthorn.

As I said earlier their pre-season has been excellent and even with all their issues last season they still managed to be a profitable betting side.

The Bombers covered the line in ten of their 16 games in Melbourne last season and there is no doubt that they will head into this clash full of energy.

Hawthorn have gone through plenty of upheaval during the off-season and they will be one of the most interesting teams to follow in 2017.

They have added the likes of Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell to what is already a strong side, but they have lost both Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell.

Losing that much experience is tough for any side and there could be somewhat of a leadership vacuum at the club, which places plenty of pressure on the returning Jarryd Roughead.

The Hawks were one of the worst betting teams in the entire AFL last season and they covered the line in just five of their 20 games as favourites.

Essendon will give Hawthorn a scare in this clash and even if they can’t win, they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 15.5 points.

Back Essendon To Beat The Line (+15.5 Points)

North Melbourne are expected to be the big sliders in the AFL this season and it is the West Coast Eagles that will start this clash as clear favourites.

No club has lost more experience during the off-season than North Melbourne and their senior list contains an astonishing 15 players that are yet to make their AFL debuts.

A number of players will be thrown into the deep end this season and it really would not surprise if North Melbourne were in wooden spoon calculations at some stage this season.

North Melbourne lost all eight of their games as underdogs last season and their record against the line when getting a start was a very poor 2-6.

West Coast fell away at the tail end of 2016, but it should not be forgotten that they were legitimate premiership contenders for the majority of the season.

There is no doubt that West Coast are a much better team in front of their home fans and their betting statistics show that fact – they won four of their six games as away favourites and they were a poor 2-4 against the line in this scenario.

The real value in this betting looks to be in the Total Points market.

Both North Melbourne and West Coast were big Unders teams in 2016 and at Etihad Stadium the Total Points line of 182.5 points looks fairly high.

Back Under 182.5 Points

This should be a highly entertaining game between two sides that are expected to be genuine premiership contenders.

The Greater Western Sydney Giants only narrowly missed out on a maiden premiership in 2016 and they are clear favourite to claim the flag this season.

There is little doubt that this Greater Western Sydney side should improve with that finals experience under their belts and they now have one of the most experienced lists in the entire AFL.

It is no surprise that the Giants will go into this clash as clear favourites and they were tough to beat in this scenario last season – they won seven of their eight games as away favourites, but were only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.

Adelaide played some blistering football at times in 2017 and for a large part of the season they were considered one of the leading premiership contenders.

They fell away slightly at the very end of the season, but they are still a side with plenty of talent.

Whether they are able to maintain their exciting, attacking style from last season is the question and the Crows are a side that have a high ceiling as well as a low floor.

The Crows were able to turn the Adelaide Oval into a fortress in 2016 and they won all three of their games as home underdogs for a clear profit.

The one betting market that does stand out in this clash is the Total Points betting market.

It is fair to say that the Crows and the Giants are two of the most entertaining teams in the entire competition and backing the Over in games involving either side last season was a highly profitable play.

The total point line has been set at 188.5 points and that does not look like anywhere near enough in a game that involves two sides with such attacking fire-power.

Back Over 188.5 Points

Fremantle have the home ground advantage, but it is Geelong that will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Patrick Dangerfield took his game to another level with Geelong last season and he was obviously the key-man for this side that only narrowly missed out on a Grand Final appearance.

A reliance on Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is the obvious issue for the Cats and there are some issues with their forward line, but this is still a side that will be in the mix come September.

Winning away from home was somewhat of an issue for Geelong last season and they won only six of their ten games as away favourites for a clear loss, while they were 6-4 against the line in this scenario.

Fremantle plummeted down the ladder in 2016, but it really would not surprise if they were the big improvers in 2017.

It should not be forgotten that Fremantle finished in the top four in 2015 and  they will be a completely different side if Nathan Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands are able to stay fit.

Whether they are capable to return to finals football is a different question, but there is no doubt that they will win more than four games.

The Dockers only won two of their eight games as home underdogs last season, but they were a credible 4-4 against the line in this scenario.

It really would not surprise if Fremantle make a strong start to the season and I am keen to back them to cover the line with a start of 12.5 points.

Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (+12.5 Points)

2016

The opening round of the AFL season is one of the most anticipated moments on the Australian sporting calendar and the 2017 season gets underway with the now traditional opener between Richmond and Carlton. The best AFL odds on the opening game of the season can be found at Ladbrokes.

We will get our first look at the second-tier Essendon side when they face the Gold Coast Suns on Saturday before the Sydney Swans host Collingwood in a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium.

The opening round of the season will be played over Easter Weekend and that means we get the always intriguing Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong in the first week of the season.

Richmond have won their past meetings with Carlton and go into the traditional AFL season opener as dominant favourites to make a winning start to the season.

Richmond fans start every season full of confidence that this can finally be the year that their side can develop into a genuine top four outfit, while Carlton were truly awful last season and if they can avoid the wooden spoon 2016 will be considered an improvement.

The Tigers have a reputation as being an unreliable football team and that theory is confirmed by their betting data in the past 12 months – they have been a losing betting proposition as favourites and they are a horrible 3-8 against the line as favourites at the MCG.

The loss of Brett Delido is a massive one and you simply can’t back the Tigers at their current price without one of their starts in the outfit.

It should come as no surprise that Carlton were a shocking betting team last season and they won just two of their 17 games as underdogs last season, while they are 8-11 against the line as underdogs.

There really isn’t a betting play that stands out in this fixture and I am happy to stay out and wait for better betting games later in the week.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

This will be a very interesting game between two sides that are expected to improve again this season.

Melbourne showed promising signs at the start of 2015 before they regressed badly in the second half of the season, but they showed some promising signs during the NAB Challenge.

The Greater Western Sydney Giants made a big leap last season and they could have snuck into the top eight if their side wasn’t badly hit by an injury crisis in the middle of the season.

The Giants will start this game as favourites and if they are serious about playing finals football they really need to be winning games like this one.

The AFL’s youngest franchise were a very safe bet as favourites last season at Spotless Stadium, but their record away from home was poor and they were 2-3 against the line as home favourites.

The Demons were a profitable betting play as underdogs last season in head to head betting and their NAB Challenge form suggests to me that they will make a promising start to the season.

The $2.30 on offer for the Demons to score an upset first round win for the second time in as many seasons is worth a bet.

Recommended Bet: Back The Demons To Win @ $2.30

What do you say about the Essendon Bombers in 2016?

The club has been gutted by the WADA suspensions of the majority of their best players and it is tough to see them winning more than a handful of games this season.

The Gold Coast Suns were expected to push for a finals berth last season, but without Gary Ablett they were extremely poor and expectations have been fairly measured in 2016.

It comes as no surprise that the Suns are favourites for this clash – a scenario that they haven’t been in for the majority of their time in the AFL.

The Suns have a very poor record against the line as favourites, while the Bombers were 10-7 against the line as underdogs this season.

In saying that, I still don’t want to back the Bombers and we need to see how their top-up players perform for a couple of weeks before we can even consider them as a betting proposition.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

This is one of the most interesting games of the round as both these sides are considered legitimate chances to play finals football this season.

North  Melbourne were only a game away from the Grand Final again last season, but it is fair to say that they overachieved and they were not particularly impressive for the majority of the season.

Adelaide showed a tremendous amount of character to rally following the tragic murder of their coach Phil Walsh and they played a quality brand of football to qualify for the finals, but many experts believe that they will struggle to replicate that in 2016.

North Melbourne will start this game as favourites and this is a position where they thrived in last season – they lost just one game as favourites at Etihad Stadium and they were 9-4 against the line.

The Adelaide Crows were a losing betting proposition as underdogs last year and they were 2-4 against the line away from home.

I am backing the Kangaroos to get out of the blocks quickly this season and they are a good bet to cover the line of 13.5 points

Recommended Bet: Back The Kangaroos To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)

The Sydney Swans remain a consistent force in the AFL and they should play finals football again in 2016, but in recent seasons they have been fairly slow starters.

Collingwood were one of the big disappointments last season, but their list is simply packed full of quality and it is difficult to see them being that bad again in 2016.

The Swans are set to start this game as favourites, but we need to remember that Collingwood have been a bogey team for the Sydney Swans in recent years and the Magpies have won 13 of the last 16 games played between the two sides.

Sydney went a terrible 3-8 against the line as home favourites last season and they were a losing betting proposition across the majority of metrics.

On the other hand, Collingwood went 6-0 against the line as away underdogs last season and you can’t ignore their excellent record against the Swans.

I expect the Magpies to bounce back in a very big way this season and they are a great bet to beat the line with a start of 7.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Magpies To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

The Western Bulldogs were the big improvers last season under new coach Luke Beveridge, but they face a tough challenge replicating that feat now that rival coaches have had an off-season to analyse their interesting approach.

Fremantle set the pace for the majority of the AFL season and they were the minor premiers, but come September they were spent forces and they never looked like genuine premiership contenders.

The market can’t split these two teams ahead of this fixture and it is very easy to see why as there are a number of questions surrounding both sides – none more so than the fitness of Nat Fye, who had surgery in the post-season to fix a fractured leg.

The Bulldogs were very good at Etihad Stadium last season, while the Dockers were 8-3 away from home but they were only 1-2 as away underdogs.

Like the bookies, I can’t split these sides, but the one market that does stand out is the Over/Under betting market.

The Dockers are the best defensive team in the competition and the Under saluted in 64 percent of their games last season, while the total went under in 59 percent of the Bulldogs games last season.

Recommended: Back The Under (175.5 Points)

Port Adelaide were the only team to beat Hawthorn twice last season, but they still missed out on finals football in what was a very disappointing regression under Ken Hinkley.

St Kilda showed signs of improvement in 2015 and they were far more competitive against the better teams in the competition, but there are questions over whether they can continue that upward spiral this season.

The Power are one of the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend and this was a scenario in which they struggled last season – they were 5-5 as home favourites and they were a very poor 7-10 against the line.

St Kilda went 4-6 as away underdogs last season and that saw them finish in the positive, but their record against the line was poor in just about every scenario.

This is a very tricky game to assess as there is no way that I could possibly get Port Adelaide as short as $1.20, but I don’t really want to play the Saints at the line.

The only play I could recommend here would be an extremely small bet on the Saints at their current price of $4.75, which really is over the odds based on how the Power performed last season.

Recommended Bet: Back The Saints To Win @ $4.75

This is the biggest mismatch of the season and based on betting the West Coast Eagles are set to start the 2016 AFL season with a very big win over the Brisbane Lions.

West Coast may have failed to fire in the AFL Grand Final, but they were still very impressive throughout the season and I expect them to finish in the top four once again.

In contrast, the Brisbane Lions produced another very forgettable season in 2015 and there aren’t many outside the club that believe they will perform any better this season.

West Coast are $1.03 favourites and the Eagles have started as $1.05 favourites or shorter in the past four seasons on ten occasions and won ten times, so it is extremely difficult to see them getting beaten.

The line is where the interest will be here and the West Coast Eagles were an outstanding 9-1 as home favourites against the line last season, while the Lions were 7-11 as underdogs.

The line of 57.5 points is massive, but the Eagles have covered a line of greater than 50 points on six occasions in the past three seasons and all the data suggests that they will do the same again this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Eagles To Beat The Line (-57.5 Points)

The rivalry between Geelong and Hawthorn is one of the most intense in the AFL and this is always one of the highlights of the AFL calendar.

Hawthorn embarrassed the West Coast Eagles in the 2015 AFL Grand Final to win their third straight flag and it would take a braver man than me to suggest that they can’t make it four in a row this season.

Geelong missed the finals for the first time in nine years last season, but a very soft draw and some shrewd recruitment, highlighted by the signing of Patrick Dangerfield, means that the Cats are expected to return to the top four very quickly.

Hawthorn have now won the past four games played between the two sides and they are favourites to make it five in a row on Easter Monday.

The Hawks were a very small losing proposition as favourites in head to head betting markets last season, but they were 15-11 against the line as favourites.

Geelong were 5-6 as underdogs last season, which gave punters that backed them each time in this scenario a very small profit, but they had the same record against the line for a small loss.

The Cats might take a while to click this season and you have to stick with the winners, so Hawthorn are a good bet to get their season off to a winning start.

Recommended Bet: Back The Hawks To Win @ $1.70