Round 12 is here — and with it, the dreaded bye rounds running through to Round 16.
Adelaide, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide get the week off, but there’s still plenty to work with across seven match-ups headlined (loosely) by a 16th vs 18th scrap between West Coast and a Brad Scott-less Essendon.
It’s rarely straightforward at this time of year, but that’s where the value tends to hide. Let’s try and find it.
Kicking things off on Thursday night is St Kilda and Hawthorn, with the latter currently $1.42 favourite and looking to cement their spot in the top four.
The Hawks returned to the winner’s stall with a tough nine-point victory over Adelaide in Launceston, led by makeshift forward Blake Hardwick’s four-goal haul.
Will Day could return from a long-term shoulder injury after racking up 16 touches in half a game of VFL last week, while Jack Gunston and Jack Scrimshaw need to overcome fitness tests.
As for the Saints, they suffered their second loss in three weeks when going down to Fremantle by 30 points.
Cooper Sharman might provide some value for Saints fans with 2+ goals in seven of St Kilda’s last eight matches at Marvel, but it won’t be enough against a Hawks side still trying to find its best form.
New coach, who dis?
Carlton fans don’t know who to abuse this week after their team notched a second straight win under caretaker coach Josh Fraser, defeating Port Adelaide by 34 points last week.
Patrick Cripps led the charge again with 32 disposals, eight clearances and a goal alongside recent outcast George Hewett with 26 and a goal.
It won’t be a walk in the park this Friday, however, with Geelong coming off their most impressive win of the season against the Sydney Swans.
Bailey Smith did his Brownlow chances no harm with 18 of his 32 disposals coming in the third term, shortening into $4 equal favourite alongside Daicos and Bont.
Surprisingly, Carlton has won the last two between these sides but have more recently lost each of their last 10 matches against opponents that were ranked in the top eight.
It doesn’t take much to lose top spot on the ladder apparently, with Sydney’s second loss of the season resulting in them falling below Fremantle on the ladder.
As such, they’ll be keen to bounce back against an undermanned Richmond side when the two sides meet at the SCG on Saturday afternoon.
They’ll be without Tom Papley (calf) and Malcom Rosas (ankle), who both suffered injuries in the loss to the Cats.
The Tigers may be facing an unprecedented injury toll – 19 thanks to Tom Lynch (larynx) and Jonty Faull (concussion) – but they’ll still be up and about after disposing of Essendon 74-56 and lifting themselves off the bottom of the ladder.
The $13 signifies their chances of back-to-back wins, but there are no expectations until they can field a full team in both the seniors and reserves.
What is going on at Brisbane?
The reigning premiers suffered the most humiliating loss of the Fagan era against the Giants when they gave up 14 consecutive goals in the third quarter and 166 points for the game.
It was the second time in two weeks the Lions lost the game in the premiership quarter, after conceding six goals to three against the Cats in Round 10.
It’s yet-to-be-seen whether Fages will wield the axe – he never really has before – but he should have both Jarrod Berry and Noah Answerth available for selection.
The Dockers made history with their 10th straight win coming against the Saints but must now travel to the Gabba where they have lost four-straight by an average of 35.3 points.
Skipper Alex Pearce and Hayden Young could both return, meaning the $2.10 on offer is as juicy as any head-to-head bet this weekend.
There will be a response from the Lions, but hard to say it’ll be enough when the Dockers are low-flying.
It hasn’t been an easy couple of months for the Western Bulldogs, but Luke Beveridge’s men have seemingly turned a corner after notching their second win in three weeks against Melbourne by three points.
The Doggies, who sit one spot about this week’s opponent Collingwood in ninth on the ladder, have one of the ugliest injury lists in the comp, but may welcome star ruckman Tim English back from concussion.
As for the Pies, how they respond one week after the celebrations of #SP433 will be very interesting.
They’ve lost Jamie Elliot for the remainder of the season due to his ACL injury in the dying minutes of the team’s 10-point win over West Coast while Darcy Moore is back on the sidelines with a hamstring strain.
Collingwood has covered the line in each of its last four matches at Marvel Stadium when playing with a rest advantage, but it’s hard to see them backing up from the hard-fought outing against the Eagles.
One of the matches of the round takes place in Alice Springs on Sunday when Melbourne battles it out with GWS at Traeger Park.
The Demons will be looking to bounce back from their three-point loss to the Dogs but will need to overcome a run of seven-straight losses at interstate venues.
Jake Lever will miss with concussion and will likely be replaced by swingman Tom McDonald after his 29 disposals and 10 marks in the Magoos.
The Giants are up and about this week after dismantling the reigning premiers Brisbane with a record-breaking 14-goal blitz in the third term.
Brent Daniels showcased his versatility and skill when fully fit with 24, 8 clearances and 2 goals, while veteran pair Jake Stringer and Toby Greene slotted five each.
Melbourne is a different side to the one that couldn’t handle interstate trips, but the Giants might just be hitting their straps. Tough one.
Lose to Richmond in Dreamtime, lose your senior coach.
It’s been a week and a half for Essendon since embarrassing themselves against an undermanned Tigers outfit and falling to their 23rd loss from 24 games.
Scott’s departure means Dean Solomon will take the reins and look to keep the ‘new coach, first week win’ rule alive when his side travels to Optus Stadium to face the Eagles.
The Eagles were impressive in their 10point loss to Collingwood for #SP433 and could strengthen their line-up with Brandon Starcevich a possible inclusion after managed minutes in the twos.
West Coast has lost each of its last eight matches as a favourite, but that could be about to end against this disaster of a Bombers unit.
2025
The first of five bye rounds have arrived which means we’re almost halfway through the 2025 AFL season.
Collingwood and Brisbane are well on their way to another deep finals campaign, while the likes of Port Adelaide, Sydney and Carlton are watching theirs disappear each week.
The fight for finals is more real than ever, so we’ve dissected every game and provided our best bets.
The reigning premiers recaptured their very best form last weekend and will thus enter Thursday night’s clash as the short-priced favourites against Essendon.
The Lions, who sit in second spot on the ladder, proved far too strong for Hawthorn and ran out 33-point winners at the MCG.
Dayne Zorko (33) and Lachie Neale (32) led the charge for the Lions after they lowered their colours just one week earlier against the Dees at home.
On the other hand, the Dons were horrendous in their Dreamtime clash against the Tigers and would have suffered defeat if it was just about any other side.
Ben McKay (foot), Zach Reid (hamstring), Kyle Langford (quad) and Saad El-Hawli (hamstring) join a long list of injured Dons, making this week’s outing against Brisbane as close to impossible as it gets.
Tip: Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) 2+ Goals @ $2.02
Is Craig McRae the best coach in the AFL?
Former Essendon superstar James Hird believes so and it’s hard to argue with the 1996 Brownlow Medallist.
McRae, who is chasing Collingwood’s second flag in three years, had his side humming against North Melbourne despite missing Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore, Steele Sidebottom, Bobby Hill and Lachie Schultz.
And the scary part? They’re all back on Friday night.
As for Hawthorn, they were once again disappointing against a top-ranked side, going down to Brisbane by 33 points at the ‘G.
Jarman Impey and Luke Breust should both return for this clash, but until the Hollywood Hawks can put on a show against the best in the comp, we can’t trust them.
Tip: Magpies To Win @ $1.58
Arguably the match of the round, the Gold Coast Suns will look to maintain their unbeaten run at home venues in 2025 when they host Fremantle at People First Stadium.
The Suns took another step towards finals on Sunday afternoon when they overpowered the Saints by 19 points at Marvel Stadium.
Ben Long continued his resurgence as a forward with three goals for the second week in a row and he will be joined by star recruit Leo Lombard who will come in for his first game.
Many pundits will consider the Dockers value at their current price of $3, after recording their second win in a row and moving to ninth on the ladder.
The biggest question mark hangs over the availability of Sean Darcy and whether Justin Longmuir chooses to include him alongside an in-form Luke Jackson.
A solo Jackson certainly improves Freo’s chances of causing an upset.
Tip: Touk Miller (Gold Coast Suns) 25+ Disposals @ $1.67
Are the Giants back?
After suffering three consecutive losses to Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs and Sydney, the Orange Tsunami seems to have recaptured their best with two wins from their last three.
They were outstanding in their most recent outing against Carlton, celebrating Toby Greene’s 250th with a 28-point win and retaining their spot in the top eight.
The Giants are hopeful Josh Kelly (hip) will return ahead of Saturday’s clash.
As for Richmond, they will celebrate the return of captain Toby Nankervis after Samson Ryan was destroyed by an Essendon ruck department missing their two best options.
Having lost each of their last 10 away games, pray for Richmond in this one.
Tip: GWS Giants (-44.5) To Cover @ $1.90
Another intriguing match-up from a betting perspective, the Sydney Swans will enter their home clash against the Crows as $2.15 underdogs.
It’s been a rough season to date for Dean Cox and his men, culminating in a 53-point loss to Melbourne last weekend.
Callum Mills (suspension) and Sam Wicks (hamstring) are the latest in a long list of sidelined Swans, but Lewis Melican and Justin McInerney should both return from suspension.
The Crows proved far too strong for the Eagles last week (66 points) and moved into fourth spot on the ladder.
Having won three of their past four, this is the right time for Matthew Nicks’ men to snap a six-game losing streak to the Swans.
Tip: Adelaide Crows To Win 1-39 @ $2.30
Are we back talking finals for Melbourne?
Before we carried away, let’s just take a moment to recognise how far they’ve turned their season around after losing their first five games.
Sitting 11th on the ladder, the Demons have won five of their past six, including a 53-point demolition job of the Swans on the back of five goals and 24 disposals from Kozzie Pickett.
The same can’t be said about the Saints, unfortunately, who suffered their third-straight loss at the hands of the Suns – despite another standout display from Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
The Dees have won seven home matches against teams on a losing streak, and we’re backing them to make it eight.
Tip: Jack Sinclair (St Kilda) 30+ Disposals @ $2.10
The final match of the round might just be the toughest to consume, with the West Coast Eagles facing off with the in-form Cats at Optus Stadium.
Geelong, who is $1.12 with Ladbrokes, are coming off their best win of the season when they defeated the Western Bulldogs 127-113 in a shootout at the Cattery.
Jeremy Cameron was unstoppable with six goals, while Shannon Neale provided the perfect foil with five of his own.
The Eagles struggled to replicate their winning performance from one week earlier against the Saints as they went down to the Crows by 66 points in Adelaide.
Things will only get tougher with the loss of Jake Waterman, who joins the likes of Jeremy McGovern, Dom Sheed and Elliot Yeo on the sideline.
Tip: Geelong Cats (-38.5) To Cover @ $1.90
2024
Round 12 starts off with a cracker, with top-four hopes for both sides making this a proper eight-point game.
Both sides are coming off identical five-day breaks from their Saturday afternoon wins last week, and the Power will certainly feel more confident taking on the short turnaround at home.
It wasn’t until Round 4 this year that the Blues were finally able to notch up their first win at Adelaide Oval, so they’ve at least overcome some form of hoodoo ahead of this clash.
The midfield battle looms large, and it’s a stark contrast in contested v uncontested at the centre stoppages, which at the Oval typically suits the uncontested Power side.
Carlton was on top of their battle against the Suns for a majority of the game, but lacked a killer punch in the middle of the game, although it did come at the end.
If the Power are to take hold of this game, they need to do it early, with a few recent games causing them issues with slow starts.
Neither side is ultra-accountable in defensive transition, although the Blues have been more conservative with their approach in recent weeks compared to the Power.
The difference in this game may be as simple as small forward output, which is something the Blues have lacked compared to the Power throughout the year.
When the Power lower their eyes inside 50 they are hard to stop, and if the Blues insist on finding Charlie and Harry on most entries, their success rate won’t match the Power.
On home turf, and against a side that regularly struggles at the Oval, it’s a non-negotiable for the Power, but their record in big-time games is poor, so anything could happen.
Tip: Power to win by 1-24 @ $3.20
The Pies come into this battle at the Dome holding on for dear life with injuries, with the loss of Cox and De Goey announced during the week.
The Dogs had the better of the Swans for a good portion of their match last week but were inefficient on the scoreboard.
Collingwood would be disappointed they let their game slip over in the West against Fremantle, but will still come into this contest full of confidence given how decimated they’re beginning to become with injuries.
Even though it’s the Dogs home ground in a Collingwood home game, the Pies have had recent success there against the Dogs, winning four of the last five matches.
The question for the Pies will lie with their ability to shut down the Dogs key forward targets in Naughton and Ugle-Hagan, which will likely be paired with Frampton and Moore.
If the Pies can generate a lot of quick rebounds out of defensive 50, it will challenge the Dogs forwards to defend hard, which isn’t their strong suit.
In the midfield, it’s a lot of pace and composure on both sides, but the Dogs have typically been outworked around the ground, whilst holding an advantage at centre stoppages.
The Dogs need to be on their toes in defensive 50, as the Pies have no genuine forward target to kick to, making it an interesting watch to how they generate scoring opportunities.
All the pressure is on the Dogs, who need to win to keep in touch with the top eight, and for the Pies, a spot in the top four is right at their fingertips.
Big implications for both sides, but the Collingwood home ground should get them over the line against a frail Bulldogs side we’ve become accustomed to.
Tip: Collingwood to cover the line (-8.5) and Nick Daicos Anytime Goal Kicker @ $2.54
How about the Hawks in the last couple of weeks?
Bar their disappointing loss to the Power, they’re certainly competitive, and they’ve ruined an opponent’s season for the first time with last week’s win over the Lions.
They’ve got a similar opportunity this week against the Crows, who are one loss away from it being all over, although it’s debatable if there’s still a spark.
The Crows rolled the Eagles at home in a massacre, but yet again are faced with the challenge of winning interstate, at the MCG, where they haven’t won since Round 15, 2017.
Albeit, they don’t play there more than twice a year, it’s still a harrowing stat given the significance of the ground if they are to make it far in one of these next few years.
Hawthorn’s disposal efficiency has well improved over the last month of footy, and they sit only 0.3% ahead of the Crows for disposal efficiency average per game at 73.8%.
The Crows have the perfect opportunity to exploit the Hawks with pace through the corridor on such a big ground and find ways to spread their 50 to generate scoring shots.
It’s around the ground the Hawks have been effective at slowing down the play and utilising uncontested ball use to move it forward and create chaos inside 50.
The Crows will have the centre stoppage advantage, and territory will play a big role in challenging the Hawks defensive unit to stand up under fast pressure.
There’s something about the vibrance of the Hawks, they’re unpredictable and finding performances from young and old.
If the Hawks are the grim reaper knocking on the doors of teams on the brink of a season-ending, Adelaide’s next.
Tip: Hawks to win by 1-24 @ $3.60
It’s hard to decide which team is heading up or down in the direction of their season, but it feels like the Saints are falling off a never-ending cliff.
Whilst the Saints fell into a heap against the Demons last week, the Eagles were no better against the Crows, suffering a 99-point loss.
Back home in the West, it’s a whole new ball game, and with a recent win over the Demons at Optus Stadium, they’ll be heading into this one full of confidence.
The lack of defensive application was evident for the Saints yet again, and with a lack of dominance through the midfield, there’s no area standing up.
The Eagles do have the midfield dominance in this contest and on a fast Optus deck, they’ll look to pepper the Saints defence with quick inside 50 entries.
A common trend within bottom sides is the uncontested game, not backing their skills to work it up efficiently, a slower approach has seemed the way, which might be the best technique for the Saints.
They’ve got the tall, leaping marking targets up forward, but there’s been a lack of versatility with their entries and if it wasn’t for their smaller options inside 50, Max King would be left to do it all.
The Saints are second in the league for turnovers per game, and if they look to play fast through the corridor, the Eagles will cause them all sorts of issues.
Too many things going wrong for the Saints, and even when they were superior last year in this match, they were down at one point by five goals against an Eagles side who had their Sydney smashing the week prior.
Tip: West Coast to win and Harley Reid to have 15+ disposals @ $2.13
It’s a rare sight to see the Cats lose a game at their Kardinia Park fortress, but two in a row… well that’s unheard of.
It’s also four losses on the trot for the Cats, and for all the hard work they did at the start to go seven unbeaten, they now sit in the cluster of top eight spot fighters.
Richmond was valiant against the Tigers in their Dreamtime battle against the Dons but just lacked class in defensive transition to shut down the Bombers on turnover.
It’s not often the Tigers get to travel to the Cattery, and without a win since 2006, it’s hard to see the tide turning in this one.
The Cats have dug themselves into a hole in their previous two clashes and their lack of defensive accountability in transition has been poor, opening up the door for roving forwards.
Whilst that’s an issue, their forward movement is hard to shut down at GMHBA, and they’re able to execute the switch of angles well, which is where the Tigers need to be most alert in.
Richmond got a retro Dusty performance last week, but if they’re hard to come by at this stage of his career, someone else needs to stand up this week to give them a sniff.
The Tigers lack of efficiency inside 50 could change at a narrow ground, but the lack of midfield depth will narrow their chances of staying in touch throughout the game.
Tip: Geelong to win by 4-+ and Jeremy Cameron to kick 2+ goals @ $1.87
Arguably the most 50/50 contest of the round will have a lot of eyes on it as the footy heads to Alice Springs for the first time this year.
The Dockers were saved late by some crucial set shots late in the fourth quarter and salvaged a draw in a game that saw them down by four goals.
The Dees have shown us their best and worst throughout the year, and it’s probably a matter of finding the right form at the right time, but right now wins are important to solidify a top-four spot.
The weather forecast of 18 degrees doesn’t count as a factor for this game compared to the humidity it’s usually paired with, and will go down to composure in transition, which has been the difference in games at TIO Traeger Park.
Since 2020, the highest score has been 83 points to win a game, with scores of 47 and 52 also winnable scores in that time.
If that’s the case in this battle, the forward dominance probably lies with the Demons, especially their versatility at ground level where they can be equally as potent as an aerial threat.
For Freo their main focus needs to be slowing down the Demons in transition, finding an ability to bring the ball to ground and create a contest.
Spread in transition has hurt the Demons in their losses and when sides switch up angles in offense, they find difficulty in tracking back.
It’s a close call in the midfield, and we should expect a highly contested battle with a lot of stoppages around the ground.
Fremantle are still in search of another big scalp, but with the lack of conviction they’ve played with over the last few weeks, it’s hard to see them stopping the Dees at a ground they’re coming to for the first time.
Tip: Melbourne to win by 1-24 @ $3.20
The Bombers are flying up in their quest for finals football, sitting pretty in second on the ladder, but the reality is, with a cruisy draw up to this point.
However, they’ve got the perfect opportunity to prove the critics wrong and take a big scalp in terms of location and opposition when they head to North to face the Suns in the Gold Coast.
In typical Gold Coast fashion, they failed to take a big scalp on the road against the Blues, lacking energy in a big game for their top-eight aspirations.
With all that being said, they’re only one game out of the top eight, and with a win against the Bombers, their wins at home will keep them in the eight.
The Suns application around the contest was poor against the Blues, and if it wasn’t for the power of Mac Andrew defensively, the Suns would have suffered a larger loss with the amount of inside 50 entries they were conceding.
Essendon wasn’t too convincing against Richmond but was solid in their fast breaks in transition to open the ground up and find loose options inside 50.
That’s their challenge again this week and with the loss of Parish and Hobbs for the next few weeks in the midfield, they will prioritise how they move the ball in transition, without relying on stoppage dominance.
With the Gold Coast weather sitting at 20 degrees and raining on Sunday, it does give the Bombers a better chance at lasting the four quarters with the Suns, but we all know the Suns are exceptional in the wet and humid conditions.
The return of Jordan Ridley gave the Bombers a big boost last week, and they’ll need yet another big performance from him to combat the Suns balanced mix of tall and small forwards who know their home ground exceptionally well.
A big statement could be made by the Bombers, but the Suns will come back hard after a poor outing against the Blues.
Tip: Gold Coast to win by 1-24 and Ben King to kick 2+ goals @ $4.40
2022
We’re officially past the halfway point of the AFL season and there is still plenty left to be learned.
A shortened round of footy kicks off on Friday night between the Dogs and the Cats from Marvel, followed by a pair of top-eight clashes when the Dees take on the Swans on Saturday, before the Dockers face the Lions in Perth on Sunday.
The Blues, Power, Saints, Bombers, Giants, and Tigers all take a seat this week, leaving us with just the six games to choose from.
For our best bets ahead of every contest, be sure to check out our 2022 AFL Round 12 Preview below!
The Dogs and the Cats have played out some thrillers in recent years, and one look at Friday’s market suggests we might be in for another.
Geelong has won three of its last five after disposing of the Crows last week by 42 points, a game that saw Tom Stewart rack up 40 disposals and Jeremy Cameron kick four goals.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have clawed their way back into the eight thanks to a triple-digit win over West Coast, but they look to have a fight on their hands with Richmond and Collingwood breathing down their neck.
The last two games between these sides have been decided by no more than two goals, and given what’s at stake, it wouldn’t be surprising if this one goes right down to the wire.
Bailey Smith is set to return this week from the flu, and his inclusion will only help strengthen a Bulldogs attack that looked lethal last week with Cody Weightman and Aaron Naughton leading the charge.
Geelong’s forward line speaks for itself, and if you combine the two, we look to have all the makings for a high-scoring game.
Four of the last five between the Cats and the Dogs have gone Over the Total, while the roof on at Marvel should provide a nice atmosphere for some free-flowing footy.
Tip: Over 168.5 Total Points @ $1.88
A battle of the birds kicks off Saturday’s slate with both sides looking to snap long losing skids.
Adelaide has suffered five losses in a row after going down to Geelong last week, while West Coast’s season reached another level of misery on the back of 101-point belting against the Dogs.
The Eagles have actually won five straight over the Crows dating back to 2019, but given the state of their defence, it’s hard to back any kind of upset this week.
The Crows are averaging nearly three more goals a game than West Coast, while they’ve also been a much better team around the clearances and inside 50.
Looking ahead, this looks to be one of the few winnable games left for Adelaide, especially with West Coast potentially missing Jeremy McGovern.
Tip: Back the Crows to Cover the Line (-37.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Suns find themselves in the thick of things following last week’s 67-point beatdown over Hawthorn.
A spot in the top eight won’t come easy with the Tigers, Pies and Port all in contention, but another game up in Darwin against the struggling Kangaroos does bode particularly well for their chances.
Gold Coast’s underrated forward line enjoyed another big day out last week against the Hawks, especially Mabior Chol and Malcolm Rosas, who both finished with three goals each.
Youngster Joel Jeffrey has added another wrinkle on attack, while the Suns’ remaining fixture (eight games against teams currently not in the Top 8) is also very encouraging.
North, meanwhile, continues to trend towards a second straight wooden spoon.
The Roos lost by 53 last week against St Kilda as they continue to find points extremely hard to come by.
That certainly wasn’t the case when these two sides met last year, but with North struggling to find targets inside 50, this shapes as an entirely different story.
The Suns have been a great team when it comes to winning the inside 50 battle, while they should be nice and settled in Darwin on the back of last week’s big win.
Very rarely would you feel confident in backing the Suns to cover such a healthy margin, but based on what’s at stake and how poor North have looked this year, Stuart Dew’s men should win well.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (-44.5 Points) @ $1.90
How will the Demons respond? That’s the question on everyone’s mind after Simon Goodwin’s side saw its 17-game winning streak snapped at the hands of Fremantle last week.
The Dockers cashed in on key defender Steven May’s absence to runaway with the game in the third quarter, a performance that taught the rest of the league one thing: the reigning premiers can be beaten.
A loss like that can do strange things for a club though, and it’s fair to say there will be a sense of relief in the Dees’ locker room with the pressure of the winning streak finally over.
Simon Goodwin will draw plenty of positives away from last week’s loss, but it’s doubtful he’ll spend too much time dwelling on it with another tough game against the Swans ahead on Saturday.
Sydney has been a tough team to get a feel for this season, especially on the back of a controversial win over Richmond last week.
To make matters more complicated, star forward Buddy Franklin is likely out after striking Trent Cotchin last week with an elbow.
On the flip side, however, May is also likely to miss this game after suffering a concussion, leaving the Dees potentially vulnerable against a Sydney forward line that still packs plenty of punch behind Issac Heeney and Sam Reid.
It’s dangerous to read too much into last week’s loss to Fremantle, but the Swans have typically played the Dees well in recent times, covering in seven of their last eight games against Melbourne, alongside a 3-0 record as the away underdog.
Backing against an experienced premiership side at home is tough, but if the Swans can put some pressure on the Dees inside 50, they’re a much better chance than the current line suggests.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Pies took the world by storm last week with a stirring win over Carlton, and they’ll now set their sights on a familiar rival on Sunday in front of another large crowd at the ‘G.
A month ago Collingwood looked headed for a rough second half of the season with back to back losses to Richmond and the Dogs, only to produce two impressive wins on the trot over Freo and the Blues – two serious finals contenders.
The feisty Hawks present the next challenge for Craig McRae to conquer, a team that has largely held Collingwood’s number with four wins from their last five meetings.
Hawthorn comes into this game on the back of a disappointing loss to the Suns in Darwin last week, their fourth loss from their last five games.
Sam Mitchell’s men have proven themselves a tough out on more than one occasion this season, but it was painfully clear last week that Hawthorn’s depleted ruck is perhaps too big of a problem to overcome.
The Hawks have played to an outstanding 4-0 record as the home underdog against Collingwood, but if the Pies can control the midfield battle and, more importantly, win the marking battle inside 50, they should be punching their ticket to the top eight.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.10
The curtain closes on Round 12 with what should be a telling top-four clash between the Dockers and Lions on Sunday.
Fremantle, fresh from a season-defining win over reigning premiers Melbourne last week, return home as slight favourites in head-to-head betting with all the momentum on their side.
The Lions, meanwhile, will have a point to prove after coming back from a healthy first-quarter margin to defeat hapless GWS last week at the Gabba.
Brisbane’s injury concerns have made life challenging for head coach Chris Fagan, but his side certainly didn’t help its cause last week by kicking 14 behinds.
Slow starts have become a common theme for the Lions right throughout the season, a trend that won’t fly against a Fremantle team that thrives on sucking the life out of its opponents and scoring in a hurry.
Plenty have questioned the legitimacy of Freo’s win last week after Melbourne’s key defender Steven May suffered a concussion early in the game, but the fact remains the same, the Dockers have won three games over top eight opponents this season.
Brisbane has picked up some handy scalps of their won, but their recent performances against Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS have all left something to be desired.
Overall, the market looks just about right here, but with skipper Nat Fyfe a chance at making his season debut, the edge belongs with Fremantle.
Tip: Back the Dockers to Win @ $1.70
2021
The AFL enters somewhat of an unknown for the second year in a row due to a Covid-19 outbreak in Melbourne in terms of fixturing in Round 12.
On the plus side, for the second week in a row, we are are being treating to another absolute blockbuster on a Friday night.
This new rolling fixture that the AFL has implemented might just be worth keeping!
There are a number of teams with a bye but there is still plenty of footy to dissect and our full 2021 AFL Round 12 Preview can be read below.
The Melbourne Demons are the new Premiership favourites after their commanding 28 point victory over the Western Bulldogs last Friday night.
Despite the Bulldogs outscoring their opponents in the first quarter by an average of two goals leading into the top-of-the-table clash, it was the Dees who started well.
Melbourne went into the first break with a 27 point lead which they maintained right through to the final siren.
The Brisbane Lions put together their seventh win on the trot when they comfortably accounted for the GWS Giants at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon to the tune of 64 points.
Now firmly entrenched in the top 4, Brisbane has rocketed to equal-second favourite in our AFL Premiership market.
They really do profile as a genuine threat for the flag, having lost only three times this year, all of which came against other top six opponents Geelong, Western Bulldogs and Sydney.
The Dogs are the only team to score more points than the Lions in season 2021 and the Dees and Dogs are the only teams to have more shots on goal.
For the second week in a row we have an absolutely cracking game to kick start the round.
Success for both teams is heavily reliant on winning the contested ball which will make for a really interesting and exciting game of football at the stoppages and whoever wins this part of the football game will win.
Tip: Brisbane Lions 1-39
St Kilda bounced back from their 111 point loss to the Western Bulldogs in Round 10 with a 20 point win over North Melbourne at the weekend, however they were far from convincing.
Their disposal efficiency of 70.1 was below their season average of 71.7% and they lost the possession count, clearances and uncontested possessions against a rebuilding team that has been well below par in season 2021.
Also responding to a disappointing loss the week before, the Sydney Swans were challenged by Carlton early but ultimately responded to win by 22 points at the final siren on Sunday.
Isaac Heeney was superb for the red and white with 22 disposals and three goals and Callum Mills continues to thrive as a midfielder gathering 25 touches and laying seven tackles.
The Swans have been the surprise packets so far this season and currently sit in sixth position.
I’ll back them to get the job done here against a very inconsistent St Kilda team.
Tip: Sydney Swans 1-39
There were some thinking an upset was on the cards when Adelaide went into half time just two points in arrears against the defending premier Richmond on the weekend.
In the third term, the Tigers took the game by the scruff of the neck, kicking six unanswered goals to set up a 28 point win, however the Crows fought right until the final siren with the first four goals of the last quarter.
Collingwood went down by just 10 points to Geelong at the MCG but that score line was very flattering to Nathan Buckley’s side.
The Pies went goalless to half time and they managed three late goals in the final seven minutes of the game to make the margin more respectable.
Collingwood’s overly defensive game style, which puts a premium on holding onto possession is keeping them in games but makes them very tough to watch.
This betting play worked well last week and I’m sticking with it.
Tip: Highest scoring half – 2nd
For the second year in a row the Dream Time game will not be held at the MCG and instead heads west to Optus Stadium.
Many are asking whether the penny has finally dropped with Essendon after one their best wins in recent memory against West Coast in Perth on the weekend but I, like many, remain gun shy with such an inconsistent team.
Richmond has not been at their scintillating best so far this season and their hopes of finishing in the top four are diminishing week by week.
There were some positives out of their blue-collar win over Adelaide at the weekend though, unearthing a giant (literally) in Callum Coleman-Jones in the absence of injured forward Tom Lynch as the 200cm forward booted four goals.
With the AFL entering another tough period when games are being rescheduled and played at neutral grounds on a moment’s notice, the fact that Essendon are already established in Perth and will not need to travel will play a part in this game.
They can use their win against the Eagles as a real launching pad for the rest of the season and I wouldn’t be surprised if they can give this a real shake.
Tip: Essendon At The Line
Two sides in need of a win meet on Sunday on the neutral turf of the SCG.
Back-to-back losses to GWS and Essendon has left West Coast clinging desperately to a spot inside the eight, while it might be now or never for 13th place Carlton with only two wins from their last five games.
The market suggests this is a very evenly matched contest, but recent history suggests this might be West Coast’s to lose.
The Eagles have won six straight over the Blues dating back to 2014, while they’ve also got enough firepower up forward to challenge a Carlton back-line that has averaged the fifth-most goals to opponents.
The Blues will have a little less to worry about with Oscar Allen, Jeremy McGovern and Tim Kelly all on the sidelines though, while they’ll also feel good about the fact they played at the SCG last week.
On one hand, it’s tough to trust West Coast away from home, and the same can be said for Carlton and their inconsistencies.
With a case to be made for both, either side to win by a narrow margin looks the safest play.
Tip: Either Team to Win by 15.5 Points
Fremantle slipped down to 11th on the AFL ladder with a disappointing 46 point loss to Port Adelaide on Sunday evening.
However, the final margin does not reflect their effort in the contest.
They won the clearances 34-32 and only narrowly lost the contested possession count 133-135 and inside 50s 58-60.
When they did reach the forward 50, it was their efficiency once inside that let them down, using the ball effectively only 39.7% of the time while in the most dangerous part of the ground.
The Western Bulldogs were jumped in the early stages of their top-of-the-table clash with Melbourne which ultimately lost them the game of football.
A trip to the other side of the country will not be enough to stop the Doggies train from rolling on and they should get the job done against an inexperienced, but rejuvenated Fremantle side.
Tip: Western Bulldogs 1-39
2020
The top eight is really beginning to take shape as the AFL’s non-stop, wall-to-wall schedule ticks over to Round 12 on Thursday night.
A blockbuster awaits on Friday night between Geelong and Port Adelaide, followed by an equally important game on Saturday when Melbourne and Collingwood square off with a potential spot in the eight up for grabs.
Sunday’s meeting between the Saints and the Bombers also holds plenty of weight, meaning the futures market and the ladder could be turned upside down.
Betting remains a guessing game, but we’re confident we’ve found a few winners in our 2020 AFL Round 12 tips below.
The first ‘Battle of the Bridge’ game gets underway on Thursday night… from Perth, that is.
GWS are looking to make it two wins in a row after coming from behind to defeat the Bombers last Friday night, while the Swans are hoping to improve on their huge effort against Collingwood at the Gabba.
There is no denying this is another must-win game for the Giants as they cling to a spot inside the eight with the Pies and Demons breathing down their neck.
GWS has won each of its last four games against the Swans, but the injury concerns continue to mount with Phil Davis listed as questionable and Toby Greene ruled out with a recurring hamstring injury.
The Swans are battered and bruised themselves with a long list of outs, but they have proven themselves a handful on the road at times this year.
GWS have also looked a completely different side with Greene out of the lineup, so with an extra day’s rest to their advantage, the Swans appear a good bet to keep this close.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+18.5 Points) @ $1.90
The implications of Friday’s showdown cannot be overstated as Geelong and Port square off in a potential Grand Final preview.
The Cats are on the short backup after pounding St Kilda by 59-points on Monday night, while the Power are well-rested after winning one of the games of the season against Richmond last Saturday.
Geelong were an absolute treat to watch on Monday as they controlled the tempo of the game and made full use of their inside 50 entries against the Saints.
Port Adelaide does pose a real challenge for the Cats, though.
The Power have allowed the second-fewest inside 50s this year as well as the fewest goals to opponents.
Also working in Port’s favour here is an outstanding track record at Metricon.
The Power have won each of their four games at Metricon this season, while the Cats are yet to play on the Gold Coast.
With Geelong on short rest, Port look a great bet to cover.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $2.00
The Lions bounced back with a very impressive victory over the Bulldogs last week and they have another great opportunity to close the gap between themselves and Port Adelaide on Saturday.
North Melbourne gave the Dees a bit of a scare early on last Sunday but eventually ran out of steam in their 57-point loss.
The Roos picked up another handful of injuries along the way, while the Lions are sweating on the scans of Charlie Cameron’s knee.
Both sides are well-rested but it’s nearly impossible to fade the Lions in this spot.
Chris Fagan’s side won both of their meetings over the Roos last year and they should have no trouble extending that record if the Lions can dominate the clearances like they did last week against the Bulldogs.
With a big game ahead in Round 13 against St Kilda, the Lions should sense the importance of a win to cement themselves in the top four.
Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $1.82
This really feels like a ‘line in the sand’ type game with both clubs jostling for a spot in the eight.
On paper, Melbourne appears the better chance after showing some strong signs in recent weeks.
Aside from a poor performance against Port, the Dees have hung tight with the Lions and also belted Adelaide and North Melbourne over the last month.
Collingwood defeated Geelong back in Round 7, but that feels like a distant memory now.
The Pies went on to lose back-to-back games against West Coast and Fremantle and were far from impressive last week in their nine-point win over the Swans.
Collingwood also has to play on short rest after facing the Crows in Adelaide on Tuesday night.
The travel turnaround is one thing, but with several big names like Jordan de Goey and Jeremy Howe still on the sidelines, this is a big ask.
Melbourne haven’t defeated Collingwood since 2017, so they look a good bet to buck that trend with a spot in the eight also up for grabs.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $2.00
The Dockers and the Blues are both facing a make-or-break scenario in Perth.
Fremantle kept their season alive with an impressive 16-point win over the Hawks on Monday night, while the Blues are simply hoping to return to their old ways after suffering back-to-back losses to Hawthorn and West Coast.
A win would likely go a long way towards either team making a run at the finals.
The Dockers and Blues are both tied on 16 points apiece on the ladder, but with home-field advantage, this does set up nicely for Fremantle to make it three wins in a row.
Carlton have proven themselves a handful this season, but we’re still yet to see them string together four consistent quarters of footy.
After leading at half-time against the Eagles last week, the Blues went on to kick only three goals in the second half as Josh Kennedy dominated down the other end.
None of that bodes particularly well against a red-hot Fremantle outfit that is relishing having Nat Fyfe back in the side.
Tip: Back Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.20
It’s crunch time this week for the Dogs as they hope to snap their three-game losing skid.
Last week’s 24-point loss to the Lions was a disappointing result for a club that at one point appeared a genuine finals contender, but all hope is far from lost as the Dogs sit just two points shy of Collingwood in 10th.
The Crows remain winless at time of publish and it’s difficult to see them breaking that streak on only four day’s rest.
Adelaide lost by 34-points when these two sides met late last year in Ballarat and the stats certainly suggest we could be in for another blowout.
Not surprisingly, the Crows lead the league in average goals allowed to opponents and inside 50 entries.
This looks a great opportunity for the Dogs to rediscover their spark against a Crows outfit destined for the wooden spoon.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-34.5 Points) @ $2.00
Time is quickly running out for the Bombers as they find themselves among a desperate group of teams fighting for a spot in the eight.
The Dons blew a four-goal lead against the Giants last week in their narrow four-point loss, their second straight defeat after failing to turn up against the Lions a week earlier.
Speaking of bouncing back, the Saints also have some work to do following a lacklustre effort against Geelong last Monday night.
The loss leaves St Kilda back outside the top four, but there is plenty to like about the Saints from a betting perspective.
Brett Ratten’s side has played to a 4-2 record on the back of a previous loss over the last 12 months and they should feel a little more confident this week with a game at the Gabba under their belt.
It’s tough to know what to make of the Bombers right now. Their pressure was great last week in the first half, but there still seems to be a lack of execution when it comes to the game plan.
Both sides are averaging exactly 9.3 goals against to opponents this year, so there is a chance this one turns out to be rather close.
The Saints won by 11-points when these two sides met in Round 2 last year and with plenty on the line for both clubs, we’re tipping a similar result.
Tip: Back St Kilda 1-39 @ $1.80
The Eagles have a chance to make it seven in a row on Sunday when they take on a Hawthorn side reeling from last week’s disappointing result against Fremantle.
The Eagles are absolutely flying right now as they continue to dominate in front of their home fans and it is no surprise to find them as the favourites to win the Premiership.
West Coast could potentially move as high as second on the ladder if results go their way, and they shouldn’t be short on motivation after losing to the Hawks 105-67 at home back in Round 23 last year.
Hawthorn received an added boost, or should we say Breust, last week, but that still wasn’t enough to spark the Hawks to life.
Alastair Clarkson’s side was smashed in the disposal and contested possession counts against the Dockers, while their measly four goals paint a grim picture against one of the league’s top goal-kicking teams this week.
With key leader Isaac Smith picking up a shoulder injury against Freo, all signs point towards a big West Coast win.
Tip: Back West Coast to Cover the Line (-26.5) @ $2.00
One of the AFL’s most exciting games of the season took place last Wednesday night as the Suns drew level at full time with the Bombers.
It was another huge performance Stewart Dew has to be proud of, and he’ll be hoping for more of the same against a Richmond side desperate to bounce back from last Saturday’s thriller against Port in Adelaide.
For the first time in a while, the Tigers emerged from their clash against the Power unscathed, while the Suns also came through their game against the Dons all clear.
From a betting perspective, it’s no real surprise to find the Tigers as the favourites, even at the Gabba.
Richmond simply need to win this game to keep in touch with the top four, while there’s also some concern below with Collingwood and GWS in close quarters.
Fortunately, the Tigers are 2-1 head-to-head and against the spread following a previous loss, and with a much longer rest to their advantage, they should be winning this one comfortably.
Tip: Back Richmond to Cover the Line (-20.5 Points) @ $2.00
2019
Six games, two top-eight battles.
The AFL’s bye week kicks off with the Bombers, Dockers, Hawks, Power, Saints and Bulldogs all taking a seat, leaving a pair of Friday and Saturday night blockbusters on the agenda.
With the jury still out on the Tigers and Crows, we should receive a verdict this week as both sides prepare to face the top two teams in the competition.
As always, we’ve previewed everything you need to know in our complete 2019 AFL Round 12 Preview below.
Richmond’s place inside the top four was short and sweet as the Tigers find themselves sitting sixth following last week’s meltdown against North Melbourne.
Geelong has a lot less to worry about atop the ladder, but head coach Chris Scott still has plenty to ponder ahead of this week’s Friday night blockbuster.
The Cats held on for a 22-point home win against the Swans last week, but after leaving the door ajar for Sydney in the first half, it was another less than convincing performance from the premiership favourites.
If Friday night’s battle is anything like last year’s epic three-point thriller in Round 20 though, we should be in for a real treat. Richmond has won their last three meetings against the Cats, but if they wish to steal the points this time around, they’ll need to step up through the midfield.
Geelong might lead the competition in goals scored, but they’ve also been the sixth-best side when it comes to winning the clearances. Richmond, meanwhile, ranks second last in clearances, and after losing the disposal and contested possession counts by a wide margin to North, it’s worth questioning whether the Tigers have the troops in place to get the job done.
Geelong finds themselves as the away favourite this week at the ‘G, a scenario they are a perfect 2-0 in against the Tigers. Richmond are 0-1 as the line underdog at home over the last 12 months, so you’re best off sticking with the Margin.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.14
Carlton have been grabbing headlines for all the wrong reasons this season as things finally reached a boiling point on Monday afternoon.
After three seasons at the helm, head coach Brendon Bolton was relieved of his duties following last week’s horror 41-point loss to the Bombers, leaving caretaker David Teague in charge of a club in serious turmoil.
Only a week removed from Brad Scott’s resignation at North Melbourne, Bolton’s sacking marks the second coaching change of the season. And of course, as we learned following the Kangaroos’ big win over Richmond last week, sometimes a club in question is capable of a big upset the very next week.
Lions coach Chris Fagan knows better than anybody just how seriously he needs to take this down and out Blues side. Brisbane’s 19-point win over Hawthorn still wasn’t enough to vault the Lions back inside the top four, but it did capture the imagination of fans who now have one eye on the finals.
The Lions did a lot wrong last week, particularly in the first quarter, but they were helped out by a brilliant backline that held Hawthorn to just three goals during the second half.
Brisbane’s pressure has been immense all season, and although these two sides have combined for some thrillers in recent memory, the Lions have still managed to win three straight over Carlton.
A big key to this game will be goal-kicking. It sounds simple, but accuracy in front of goal continues to elude Brisbane – evident in the fact they lead the league in behinds.
Carlton’s midfield is capable of handling Brisbane’s pressure, but if the Lions tag Patrick Cripps successfully, they should have no problem improving on their 5-3 record as the line favourite.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.90
It might be nothing more than a battle for bragging rights, but this bottom eight affair holds big ladder implications for North Melbourne.
In their first game without former coach Brad Scott, the Roos pulled off a remarkable 37-point upset over Richmond last Friday night. The victory leaves North just eight points shy of a spot in the eight, and with a winnable game in hand this week, Roos fans might have something to get excited about.
The Suns now find themselves second last on the ladder after losing their seventh straight game last week. Gold Coast managed only 43-points in the blowout loss to the Giants, but the good news is the Suns tend to show up for a fight whenever they meet North Melbourne.
These two sides played twice last year splitting the series one win apiece. The Suns haven’t lost at Metricon to the Roos since 2016 but considering Gold Coast are currently allowing the third-most inside 50’s, don’t be surprised if North’s forwards enjoy a big day out.
Diving a little deeper, Ben Brown has combined for 13 goals in his last five matches against the Suns. Gold Coast also lead the league in clearances allowed to opponents, so if North can play with the same kind of fight they showed last week, the Roos could be looking at three wins on the trot.
Tip: Back North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.00
The jury might still be out on the Crows, but you can just about lock the Giants in for a finals spot.
GWS earned a commanding 83-point win over the Suns last week to jump up to second on the ladder. The Giants will also hold particularly fond memories of Adelaide Oval after defeating the Crows by 16-points during Round 11 last year.
Adelaide still holds a place in the eight, but it’s hardly been a convincing fortnight. If it wasn’t for Sam Weideman’s inaccuracy in front of goal, the Crows would have lost to the Demons last week. Considering Adelaide have won only two games at home all year, it’s also not surprising to find the Giants listed as favourites.
GWS are 5-1 in this scenario on the road over the last 12 months and an even more impressive 11-6 on the back of a win. The Crows, meanwhile, are 5-6 following a previous win, so back the Giants to win a close one.
Tip: Back GWS 1-39 @ $2.22
Five wins on the trot see the Eagles back inside the top four, but there’s plenty left to be desired from the reigning premiers.
West Coast were demolished in the disposal count last week against the Bulldogs, and although they won convincingly on the scoreboard, the Eagles need to dig deep if they wish to put an end to their 20-year hoodoo at the SCG.
The Swans own seven straight wins at the SCG over West Coast dating back to 1999. Sydney fell to 3-8 following last week’s trip to The Cattery, but there were plenty of positives to take away from the 22-point loss.
Sydney has won their last two games over the Eagles by convincing margins, making the Swans a worthwhile upset play this week.
The Swans have never opened as the underdog at home to the Eagles, while West Coast’s track record against Buddy Franklin poses a few concerns. In his last two games against the Eagles, Buddy has combined for a whopping 10 goals.
For the Swans, the key to winning this game will be getting the ball to Buddy cleanly inside 50, but also winning the third quarter. Both sides are 5-6 in the third term this year, but with a two-decade-long hoodoo on their back, take the Swans to add to West Coast’s misery in Sydney.
Tip: Back Sydney To Win @ $2.24
Collingwood have an extra couple of days to dwell on last week’s controversial loss to Fremantle at the ‘G.
The Pies fell victim to a blown umpiring decision and a clutch Michael Walters goal, but the good news is, Monday’s game against the Demons presents as the ideal bounce-back game.
If it wasn’t for wayward goal kicking (again), the Demons would probably have an extra win next to their name. Melbourne lost a heartbreaker last week to the Crows, a game that saw the Dees once stick to the script of winning the disposal and inside 50 battle, but not the scoreboard.
For Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley, this game shapes up a lot like last weeks. The Demons can match the Pies through the midfield, but given Melbourne’s lack of tall forwards, it’s hard to see them pulling off an upset.
Collingwood has won two straight over the Demons including last year’s 42-point blowout. The Pies are 8-4 as the home favourite over the last 12 months but try to keep in mind, Melbourne are also 7-5 as the line underdog during the same time span.
Perhaps more importantly though, Collingwood are 5-2 on the back of a loss. The Pies should win this, but back the Demons to keep things interesting.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (+18.5 Points) @ $1.90
2018
After a weekend of mostly one-sided contests, round 12 looks to show a lot of promise with many evenly matched teams playing against each other.
It starts on Friday night in Adelaide with Port taking on the Tigers and finishes with the traditional Queens Birthday game between Melbourne and Collingwood with both teams playing some excellent footy along with some other intriguing fixtures this weekend.
We have analysed all seven games and our complete 2018 AFL Round 12 tips can be found below.
The football watching public rejoices this weekend with the prospect of two good teams playing against each other on footy’s prime-time slot for a change.
Eighth-placed Port Adelaide host reigning premiers Richmond at Adelaide Oval in what could be the match of the round.
When these two teams met last year, the Tigers defeated Port by 13 points in Round 15 at Adelaide Oval in what was one of the best wins in their premiership-winning season.
Dustin Martin and Kane Lambert dominated for the tigers, Dan Butler kicked three majors and Port Adelaide’s Chad Wingard recorded a career high 39 disposals.
Port and Richmond have met five times since Trent Cotchin elected to kick against the wind in the Power’s thumping 57 point win in the 2014 Elimination Final with the Power winning three out of the last five between the two sides.
The football landscape has changed since that infamous Elimination Final, Richmond has a premiership and Port has making up the numbers.
Richmond has played interstate twice this season and has lost both times. After a dominating 71 point win against Essendon last weekend, the Tigers seem to be back in their form we saw back in September last year.
Shane Edwards was best on the ground for the Tigers last weekend with 30 disposals, two goals and several scoring assists, Dustin Martin was outstanding with 28 disposals and Josh Caddy made the most of every opportunity with four goals.
Port Adelaide will be hurting from their three-point loss to the Hawks in Launceston last week. The lead was swinging both teams ways in the final quarter and the Power was able to kick back to back goals to lead with 10 minutes to play. Robbie Gray kicked four for Port in a low scoring contest.
Many would also argue that Port was robbed of some critical free kicks at such a crucial stage in the match.
The Tigers will come into this game wanting to get a win on the road in the bank for season 2018 and will be too good for Port in what is sure to be a tight, close game.
Back Richmond To Cover The Line (-4.5 Points)
The surprise packet of season 2018, North Melbourne heads down the highway to GMHBA Stadium to take on the Cats.
The two sides last met in Round 2 of 2017 where Geelong snatched a thrilling one point win over the Roos at Etihad Stadium. North had led all day but the Cats took the lead only in the final minute to snatch the victory from the Kangaroos. Geelong had trailed by 25 points at three quarter time, it was the Cats desperation which got them the thrilling win.
Last quarter efforts from Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood was the key to the Cats victory in this match.
In the past five meetings between the two sides, North Melbourne has won three with the Cats two. The contests have been relatively close such as the Roos six point semifinal win in 2014, and last year’s one point thriller.
North Melbourne can also lay claim to having beaten Geelong in their most recent encounter at the Cattery when they beat the Cats by 33 points in Round 4, 2015.
Geelong was ruthless against the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium beating them by 85 points last week. Gary Ablett put on a clinic with 37 disposals and three goals to his name as the locals saw fit to boo a four-time best and fairest and former captain of the club.
Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Tim Kelly were all effective in a win that solidifies the Cats spot in the top eight,
North Melbourne also had a day out against Brisbane last week at Etihad Stadium. The Roos dominated all day with a five goal to none first quarter and went on to thump the Lions by 54 points.
Ben Cunnington again dominated in the midfield with 18 of his 28 disposals contested, Shaun Higgins ran rampant around the ground and had a career-high 38 possessions and the debutant Paul Ahern impressed with 29 disposals on debut.
Despite many writing the Kangaroos off as the wooden spooners, they sit sixth on the ladder with 7 wins-4 losses and are most likely to play finals in 2018.
Geelong has the same win/loss ratio and only beat the Roos on percentage.
This is set to be a cracking match between two quality sides this Saturday afternoon but one can not tip against the Cats at home.
Back Geelong To Cover The Line (-14.5 Points)
The battle of the AFL’s children…sorry, expansion clubs takes place this Saturday at Spotless Stadium with the Giants taking on the Suns.
When the two last met in Round 2 of last year, the Giants thumped the Gold Coast Suns by a record 102 points at Spotless Stadium. GWS dominated all over the ground with Jeremy Cameron booting six goals and Toby Greene kicking five. Josh Kelly, Dylan Sheil tore the midfield apart and Phil Davis kept Tom Lynch goalless for the entire day. It was a record-breaking day for the Giants with the club kicking its highest ever score and greatest winning margin.
In the short time both these sides have been in the competition, GWS leads the head-to-head with six wins and four losses.
The Giants are coming off a season-defining win over the Crows at Adelaide Oval. Coming off four straight losses and their 2018 campaign hanging in the balance, GWS put on their best performance in a sensational 16 point win on the road.
Jeremy Cameron booted three goals including two vital ones in the last quarter and the midfield dominance of Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly paved the way for a famous victory for the Giants.
To say last week was a disaster for the Gold Coast Suns would be an understatement. Not only did Geelong belt them by 85 points, in the second quarter Geelong had 123 disposals to the Suns 55, they allowed the Cats to kick nine unanswered goals and the turnovers could be enough to make coach Stewart Dew burst – if hasn’t done so already.
With the Giants coming off a stellar win on the road, expect the Suns to put up somewhat of a fight but GWS will be too good.
Back Gold Coast To Cover The Line (+45.5 Points)
It’s another tough task ahead for the struggling Saints as they face the Sydney Swans back home at Etihad Stadium this Saturday night.
It was the Callum Sinclair show the last time these two sides met in Round 17 of last season. Sinclair was a late call-up to the Swans side and kicked five goals as the Swans went on to beat the Saints by 42 points and it would have been more had they been able to kick straight for that night for a total of 14. 17 (101) to the Saints 9. 5 (59)
The Swans got the job done against Carlton last Friday night and the Saints lead a late charge against the top of the ladder West Coast in the last quarter only to go down by 13 points.
The Swans trailed the Blues at halftime of their encounter last weekend but it was the Swans class that was able to get them their 30 point win. Midfielders Issac Heeny, Luke Parker and George Hewitt impressed while Buddy was able to finish the night off with three goals.
St.Kilda hasn’t won since Round one, but have put up a fight against league leaders Richmond and West Coast in the past fortnight. The Saints trialled the Eagles by 48 points at three-quarter time but the Saints kept on coming, with Tim Membrey kicking three of the six unanswered goals in the last quarter, giving the top of the ladder Eagles a scare.
The Saints have shown signs they are capable of causing an upset this season, but haven’t beaten the Swans since Round 9, 2012. Expect the Swans to have too much class this Saturday night.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-28.5 Points)
Both coming off heavy losses last round, Brisbane and Essendon should be one of the most interesting games in Round 12.
Brisbane caused one of the biggest upsets of season 2017 when these two sides last met, beating the Bombers by eight points at Etihad Stadium in round 15. Essendon led at every break but allowed Brisbane to boot six of the last seven goals of the game, with Lion Ryan Hester kicking the goal that put them in front with just under two minutes left. At the end of the game, Essendon’s CEO Xavier Campbell famously took to twitter to vent his disappointment at his clubs performance.
The Lions have beaten Essendon in two of the last three meetings against the clubs and have been in the hunt in every game they’ve played at home this season.
Brisbane was blown away by North Melbourne as they went down to the Roos by 55 points last week. North kicked five goals to one in the first quarter and the Lions were never in the contest. Despite the Kangaroos dominance, the Lions were able to fight it out in the second half but it was too little, too late for them.
Dayne Beams was able to shake off the tag from North’s Ben Jacobs and defender Harris Andrews was able to ensure that Ben Brown had a quiet day with only two goals.
Dreamtime at the G turned out to be a nightmare for Essendon. David Zahararakis went down with a suspected collarbone injury in the first quarter, Orazio Fantasia had a suspected problem with his right knee but was able to play out the game.
Essendon showed some fight in the second quarter and kicked four out of the next five goals in the second quarter, getting to within 12 points of Richmond but the Tigers flexed their muscle and belted the Dons in what was a disappointing night for the club.
Despite two bad games against North and Richmond, the Lions have been competitive in every match they’ve played this season and despite having only one win this season, are every chance to get the four premiership points this Sunday. It’s a matter of which Essendon decides to show up.
Back Brisbane To Win @ $2.20
The Adelaide Crows make their debut on the new Optus Stadium and take on Freo this Sunday afternoon.
It was one to forget for Fremantle when these two last met in Round 10 of 2017. Adelaide thumped the Dockers by 100 points with indigenous boys Eddie Betts, Charlie Cameron and Wayne Milera kicking three goals each making the most of the indigenous round celebrations. Andy Otten came back from a knee-reconstruction and booted four, Josh Jenkins also had a day out kicking three and Rory Sloane kept Nat Fyfe quiet.
Many footy fans recall the memorable clash between these two sides in Round 9, 2015 in which Freo defeated the Dockers by 11 points in what many recall as the great Nat Fyfe v Patrick Dangerfield game. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see a match like that between these two teams on Sunday.
Fremantle was outclassed by Collingwood going down by 61 points at the MCG and Adelaide were shocked by the Giants in an upset loss at home.
The Dockers went with youth in last weekend’s bringing in six changes to the side from the previous week but Collingwood was too good for them. Freo was able to kick seven goals to prevent it from being a major blow out.
Adelaide was stunned by GWS at home last Sunday. In what was a tight see-sawing contest between the two sides, the Crows went down by 16 points. Crows young gun Darcy Fogarty kicked a goal three minutes into the final quarter to put them in front but GWS charged forward in one of the upsets of the season. Bryce Gibbs, Matt Crouch and Rory Laird got plenty of the football but pinned their hopes on Eddie Betts to do some magic. It didn’t work.
The Crows are coming off two bad losses in a fortnight and much like their opponent last week, a good win on the road could get them back on track for season 2018. However, Fremantle has only lost once to visiting side at Optus Stadium and have made the new ground their fortress.
Back Adelaide To Cover The Line (-19.5 Points)
In previous years, Melbourne used to consider their annual Queens Birthday clash against the Magpies as their Grand Final, but this is 2018 and the Dees are in red hot form making a charge to their first finals series since 2006.
When these two last met in Round 23, Collingwood defeated Melbourne by 16 points and made Melbourne sweat it out the next day to see if they would play finals or not. Results didn’t go the way of the Demons the next day, resulting in West Coast taking the eighth spot on the ladder and the Demons missing out on percentage.
The two sides also played out a thriller on the Queen’s Birthday match when Jack Watts kicked the sealer with two minutes to go, ensuring Melbourne won by four points.
Inspired by the Wolf of Wall Street’s Fugazi chant, the Dees kept on their winning ways with a clinical 49 point defeat of the Western Bulldogs. Despite high profile recruit Jake Lever going down with an ACL injury, Melbourne was able to get the job done with Angus Brayshaw achieving a career-high 39 disposals, Alex Neal-Bullen impressed and Jesse Hogan’s five goals were the standouts for the Dees ensuring the club had a convincing win for skipper Nathan Jones 250th game.
Collingwood was able to destroy a young and inexperienced Fremantle side in their 61 point win at the MCG last Sunday. Tom Phillips and Steele Sidebottom were amongst the influential for the Pies and mature age debutant Brody Mihocek kicked four goals and has already become a cult hero amongst the Magpie Army.
Both teams have been in some great form of recent and they are sure to put on a show for Freddie Mercury’s birthday this Monday.
Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-9.5 Points)
2017
The second bye round of the 2017 AFL season gets underway with a Thursday Night AFL Grand Final rematch between the Sydney Swans the Western Bulldogs and there are interesting matches set to take place right across the weekend.
The Brisbane Lions are the only side without a realistic chance of finishing in the top eight and every win can see teams leap several positions on the AFL ladder.
We are confident that we can keep on finding winners in the AFL this weekend and our complete 2017 AFL Round 12 tips can be found below.
This is the second Grand Final rematch between these two sides this season and it is something of a surprise that Sydney have opened as favourites.
Sydney went into the bye on the back of a disappointing loss at the hands of Hawthorn and it really is tough to see how they are as short as their current price.
The Swans have won only six of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear loss, while they are 5-8 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs went into their week of with a win over St Kilda and it really would not surprise to see them go on a run as we enter the second half of the regular season.
They have won six of their past nine games as away underdogs for a massive profit and they are a most impressive 8-1 against the line in this scenario.
There is no better bet in the AFL this weekend than the $2.05 currently on offer for a Western Bulldogs win.
Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2.05
The Adelaide Crows have lost their place on top of the AFL Ladder, but they will still go into this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.
Adelaide went down to Geelong last Friday night and they will be keen not to suffer back-to-back defeats for the second time this season.
The Crows have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda went into the bye after suffering back-to-back losses at the hands of both Sydney and the Western Bulldogs.
Winning away from home has not really been an issue for St Kilda and they have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a narrow profit, while they are 4-3 against the line in this situation.
St Kilda have shown this season that they are capable of mixing it with the best teams in the competition on their day and they are worth a gamble at their current quote of $5.
Back St Kilda To Win @ $5
This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend.
Hawthorn were nothing short of disgraceful against Port Adelaide last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the Gold Coast Suns as favourites.
The Hawks have won six of their past eight games as favourites, but they are a very poor 2-6 against the line and it is tough to back them off their last start effort against the Power.
Gold Coast survived a late scare to beat West Coast last weekend and they will take plenty of confidence from the fact that they recorded a dominant win over Hawthorn earlier this season.
Winning away from home has proven to be an issue for the Suns and they have lost their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
These are two teams that are very tough to trust from a betting standpoint and this is a clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.
No Bet
Fremantle have lost two games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash with the Brisbane Lions as clear favourites.
The Dockers have definitely regressed somewhat in the past two weeks and their chances of playing finals football will likely fly out the window if they fail to beat the Lions this weekend.
Fremantle have only played one game as away underdogs over the past 12 months, but they did get the job done and they covered the line in the process.
Brisbane’s round 1 victory over the Gold Coast Suns now seems like an eternity away and it really is tough to see them ending their losing streak this weekend.
Not only is their recent record against Fremantle nothing short of horrible. they have lost nine of their past ten games as home underdogs and they are 1-9 against the line.
Fremantle really should be able to return to winning form and cover the line of 22.5 points in the process.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-22.5 Points)
Essendon have the home-ground advantage, but it is Port Adelaide that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Port Adelaide were nothing short of dominant against Hawthorn last Thursday night and their record against weaker sides this season has been excellent.
The Power have won four of their past five games as away favourites for a clear profit and they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon were far from disgraced against Greater Western Sydney on Saturday night and they could have come away with the four points if it was not for a poor end to the first half.
The Bombers have won six of their past ten games as home underdogs for a big profit and they are a most impressive 9-1 against the line in this scenario.
The market looks to have got this clash just about right, but the betting market that does stand out here is the Under in Total Points betting.
Backing the Under in Essendon games at Etihad Stadium has been a profitable betting play in recent seasons and the Under has saluted in 20 of the past 32 games played by Port Adelaide.
Back The Under
The Greater Western Sydney Giants are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.
GWS survived another scare against Essendon to make it four wins on the trot and it really is tough to see them going down to this Carlton outfit.
The Giants have won seven of their past nine games as away favourites for a narrow profit and they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton went into their bye on the back of a fighting loss against North Melbourne, but this is the toughest challenge that they have faced this season.
The Navy Blues have won three of their past ten games as home underdogs for a narrow profit, but they are only a middling 5-5 against the line in this situation.
This is the chance for the Giants to make a statement in Melbourne and I am backing them to do just that with an emphatic victory.
Back Greater Western Sydney To Beat The Line (-32.5 Points)
Melbourne ended their Queen’s Birthday losing streak against Collingwood last year and they will go into this year’s edition as clear favourites.
The Demons went into their bye with a comeback win over the Gold Coast Suns, but consistency has been a big issue so far this season and stringing together back-to-back wins has been easier said than done.
Melbourne have won only six of their past 11 games as favourites for a clear loss and they are a disappointing 4-7 against the line as the punter’s elect.
Collingwood made it three wins on the trot with a tough victory over Fremantle and they can move into the top eight with a win over Melbourne.
The Magpies have won four of their past 11 games as underdogs for a clear profit and they are a most impressive 9-2 against the line when being given a start.
There really is not a great deal between these two teams and I am keen to back Collingwood with a start of 8.5 points.
Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+8.5 Points)
2016
There were a number of mismatches on Friday night in the AFL last season and they have done their best in 2016 to avoid this situation, but Hawthorn could give the under strength Essendon a touch up.
There is plenty of exciting football set to take place on Saturday and the highlight could be the battle of the Scott Brothers when Geelong do battle with North Melbourne, while Port Adelaide take on the Western Bulldogs and the West Coast Eagles face the Adelaide Crows.
The round concludes on Monday when the Melbourne Demons take on Collingwood in their traditional Queen Birthday’s fixture.
Essendon have lost six of the past seven games played between the two sides and there is very little chance that they can improve that record this weekend.
Essendon have won just three of their past 23 games and they have been on the receiving end of a number of big defeats in recent weeks, with their inability to score points proving to be their major issue.
Hawthorn made it two wins on the trot against Melbourne last weekend, but they were not particularly impressive and their record against the line as favourites in the past 12 months is a lacklustre 11-15.
This will be the ninth time that Hawthorn have given away such a big start in the past five seasons and they have won all four games, but their record against the line is only a middling 4-4.
There is no doubt that Hawthorn will win this fixture, but there is no betting value whatsoever.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and there is very little separating these two teams.
Port Adelaide have found a semblance of their best form in recent weeks and they go into this game on the back of two impressive victories against Melbourne and Collingwood.
The Power are currently narrow underdogs and they have not won a game as home underdogs in the past 12 months, but there has been plenty of support for Port Adelaide in the past two weeks and it would not surprise to see them start this game as favourites.
The Western Bulldogs have won seven of their past 12 games away from home, but they have not been a profitable betting play and their record against the line in this scenario is a middling 6-6.
The Bulldogs showed that they are still capable of winning close games when they beat the West Coast Eagles last weekend and they are sure to take plenty of confidence from that performance.
At this stage it is very tough to separate these two sides and I would like to wait until later in the week before deciding which way to go with this fixture.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Fremantle finally recorded their first win of the season when they proved far too strong for Essendon last weekend and they have an excellent chance to make it two wins on the trot.
While punters are not getting carried away with Fremantle after just the one win, they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
This is a position in which they have struggled in the past 12 months, but they have actually won the only two games that they have started as home favourites in this time period.
The Brisbane Lions produced a typically average performance against Carlton last weekend and they will not take any confidence from the fact that their recent record against Fremantle is absolutely horrendous.
Brisbane have won just two of their past nine games as home underdogs, but to be fair their record against the line in this situation is a credible 6-3.
It would not surprise to see Fremantle string a couple of wins together now that they finally broke their duck for the season and they are a safe bet this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
There is always plenty of interest when Geelong and North Melbourne do battle as the two sides are coached by identical twins Chris Scott and Brad Scott and this year’s clash is especially important as both these teams are genuine top four contenders.
Geelong ended their losing streak with a narrow victory over the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and they still have room to improve on that performance as their goal kicking was very poor.
They have opened as narrow favourites for this fixture and they have won nine of their past 12 games as the punter’s elect, but their record at Etihad Stadium is far from the best in the competition and they have beaten the line in just eight of their past 18 games as favourites at the venue.
North Melbourne returned to winning form with a dominant display against Richmond and they are one team that clearly does not have any problem playing at Etihad Stadium.
The Kangaroos have won three of their past four games as underdogs for a very narrow loss, but they are 5-2 against the line in that scenario and they have covered the spread in 61 percent of their games at their home venue.
The Etihad Stadium factor could prove to be the difference in this clash and North Melbourne are a good bet to record their fourth straight win against Geelong on the trot.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Win @ $1.95
The West Coast Eagles suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form at their fortress that is Domain Stadium.
West Coast are a completely different team when they play in front of their home fans and they are 12-0 as home favourites in the past 12 months, while they have failed to beat the line in just one of these games.
Adelaide have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but they made it three wins on the trot with their big victory over St Kilda last weekend and they will take plenty of confidence into this fixture.
Like the Eagles, the Crows generally save their best football for their home fans and they have won just three of their past nine games as away underdogs.
You simply can’t bet against West Coast at Domain Stadium and they should be able to comfortably cover the line of 17.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back West Coast Eagles To Beat The Line (-17.5 Points)
St Kilda have a surprisingly poor record against Carlton in recent seasons and they have lost the past four games played between the two sides.
St Kilda looked to be making some positive strides and they recorded back-to-back wins for the first time in over a year when they beat Essendon and Fremantle, but they regressed spectacularly last weekend with an incredibly poor performance against Adelaide.
They will go into this game as underdogs and this is a position in which they have really struggled in the past 12 months – they have won just three of their past 19 games and they are 8-11 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton’s much improved season under new coach Brendon Bolton continued when they produced a professional effort to beat the Brisbane Lions last weekend and this will be the fourth game that they will start as favourites.
The Blue have won their previous three games as the punter’s elect, while also covering the line, and if they continue to play this stellar brand of football they are a great bet to maintain that perfect record on Sunday afternoon.
Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)
Richmond had their winning streak snapped by North Melbourne and after that performance it is back to square one for Damien Hardwicke’s men.
While they were very poor against North Melbourne, they are still very short-priced favourites to win this clash and this is not a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months.
Richmond have won only five of their past ten games as home favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is a very poor 2-8.
Tiger’s fan bemoaning their teams form should probably spare a thought for those that support the Gold Coast Suns as they have not even looked like winning a game in recent weeks.
The Suns have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and their record against the line is a truly woeful 1-8.
Richmond should win this game, but they can’t be trusted from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
This will be the second Sydney Derby this season after Sydney scored a comfortable victory over Greater Western Sydney earlier this year.
Greater Western Sydney have come along in leaps and bounds since that defeat and they are set to challenge the Swans for favourtism, despite the fact that they have lost two games in a row to Adelaide and Geelong.
Their record at Spotless Stadium is stellar and they have won eight of their past 11 games at the venue, while two of those victories have come as underdogs.
Sydney have moved into outright premiership favourtism after recording three straight wins over Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Gold Coast and they continue to be one of the best betting teams in the competition.
The Swans are 7-2 as away favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this scenario is a profitable 5-4.
They have never lost a game at Spotless Stadium and I don’t think that will change this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Sydney Swans To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
This is the traditional Queen’s Birthday Meeting between Melbourne and Collingwood and this is the first time in a number of seasons that Melbourne are set to start as favourites.
Melbourne lost their second game on the trot against Hawthorn last weekend, but there was still plenty of merit in the performance and they were far from disgraced.
Favoritism is not a position that Melbourne have been in a great deal in recent seasons and they are still coming to terms with it – they have won just two of their past six games as the punter’s elect and their record against the line is identical.
Collingwood were very poor against Port Adelaide last weekend and they have now won just four of their past 14 games in head to head betting markets.
While they have not thrived in head to bead betting as underdogs, their record against the line in this scenario is a profitable 8-6 and they are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 9.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+9.5 Points)