Friday June 5, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Saturday June 6, 1:45pm, SCG
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday June 6, 4:35pm, Metricon Stadium
Saturday June 6, 7:25pm, Metricon Stadium
Sunday June 7, 2:10pm, MCG
Monday June 8, 3:20pm, MCG
Six games, two top-eight battles.
The AFL’s bye week kicks off with the Bombers, Dockers, Hawks, Power, Saints and Bulldogs all taking a seat, leaving a pair of Friday and Saturday night blockbusters on the agenda.
With the jury still out on the Tigers and Crows, we should receive a verdict this week as both sides prepare to face the top two teams in the competition.
As always, we’ve previewed everything you need to know in our complete 2019 AFL Round 12 Preview below.
Friday June 7, 7:50pm, MCG
Richmond’s place inside the top four was short and sweet as the Tigers find themselves sitting sixth following last week’s meltdown against North Melbourne.
Geelong has a lot less to worry about atop the ladder, but head coach Chris Scott still has plenty to ponder ahead of this week’s Friday night blockbuster.
The Cats held on for a 22-point home win against the Swans last week, but after leaving the door ajar for Sydney in the first half, it was another less than convincing performance from the premiership favourites.
If Friday night’s battle is anything like last year’s epic three-point thriller in Round 20 though, we should be in for a real treat. Richmond has won their last three meetings against the Cats, but if they wish to steal the points this time around, they’ll need to step up through the midfield.
Geelong might lead the competition in goals scored, but they’ve also been the sixth-best side when it comes to winning the clearances. Richmond, meanwhile, ranks second last in clearances, and after losing the disposal and contested possession counts by a wide margin to North, it’s worth questioning whether the Tigers have the troops in place to get the job done.
Geelong finds themselves as the away favourite this week at the ‘G, a scenario they are a perfect 2-0 in against the Tigers. Richmond are 0-1 as the line underdog at home over the last 12 months, so you’re best off sticking with the Margin.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.14
Saturday June 8, 1:45pm, Marvel Stadium
Carlton have been grabbing headlines for all the wrong reasons this season as things finally reached a boiling point on Monday afternoon.
After three seasons at the helm, head coach Brendon Bolton was relieved of his duties following last week’s horror 41-point loss to the Bombers, leaving caretaker David Teague in charge of a club in serious turmoil.
Only a week removed from Brad Scott’s resignation at North Melbourne, Bolton’s sacking marks the second coaching change of the season. And of course, as we learned following the Kangaroos’ big win over Richmond last week, sometimes a club in question is capable of a big upset the very next week.
Lions coach Chris Fagan knows better than anybody just how seriously he needs to take this down and out Blues side. Brisbane’s 19-point win over Hawthorn still wasn’t enough to vault the Lions back inside the top four, but it did capture the imagination of fans who now have one eye on the finals.
The Lions did a lot wrong last week, particularly in the first quarter, but they were helped out by a brilliant backline that held Hawthorn to just three goals during the second half.
Brisbane’s pressure has been immense all season, and although these two sides have combined for some thrillers in recent memory, the Lions have still managed to win three straight over Carlton.
A big key to this game will be goal-kicking. It sounds simple, but accuracy in front of goal continues to elude Brisbane – evident in the fact they lead the league in behinds.
Carlton’s midfield is capable of handling Brisbane’s pressure, but if the Lions tag Patrick Cripps successfully, they should have no problem improving on their 5-3 record as the line favourite.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.90
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday June 8, 4:35pm, Metricon Stadium
It might be nothing more than a battle for bragging rights, but this bottom eight affair holds big ladder implications for North Melbourne.
In their first game without former coach Brad Scott, the Roos pulled off a remarkable 37-point upset over Richmond last Friday night. The victory leaves North just eight points shy of a spot in the eight, and with a winnable game in hand this week, Roos fans might have something to get excited about.
The Suns now find themselves second last on the ladder after losing their seventh straight game last week. Gold Coast managed only 43-points in the blowout loss to the Giants, but the good news is the Suns tend to show up for a fight whenever they meet North Melbourne.
These two sides played twice last year splitting the series one win apiece. The Suns haven’t lost at Metricon to the Roos since 2016 but considering Gold Coast are currently allowing the third-most inside 50’s, don’t be surprised if North’s forwards enjoy a big day out.
Diving a little deeper, Ben Brown has combined for 13 goals in his last five matches against the Suns. Gold Coast also lead the league in clearances allowed to opponents, so if North can play with the same kind of fight they showed last week, the Roos could be looking at three wins on the trot.
Tip: Back North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.00
Saturday June 8, 7:10pm, Saturday June 8, 7:10pm
The jury might still be out on the Crows, but you can just about lock the Giants in for a finals spot.
GWS earned a commanding 83-point win over the Suns last week to jump up to second on the ladder. The Giants will also hold particularly fond memories of Adelaide Oval after defeating the Crows by 16-points during Round 11 last year.
Adelaide still holds a place in the eight, but it’s hardly been a convincing fortnight. If it wasn’t for Sam Weideman’s inaccuracy in front of goal, the Crows would have lost to the Demons last week. Considering Adelaide have won only two games at home all year, it’s also not surprising to find the Giants listed as favourites.
GWS are 5-1 in this scenario on the road over the last 12 months and an even more impressive 11-6 on the back of a win. The Crows, meanwhile, are 5-6 following a previous win, so back the Giants to win a close one.
Tip: Back GWS 1-39 @ $2.22
West Coast Eagles
Sunday June 9, 3:20pm, SCG
Five wins on the trot see the Eagles back inside the top four, but there’s plenty left to be desired from the reigning premiers.
West Coast were demolished in the disposal count last week against the Bulldogs, and although they won convincingly on the scoreboard, the Eagles need to dig deep if they wish to put an end to their 20-year hoodoo at the SCG.
The Swans own seven straight wins at the SCG over West Coast dating back to 1999. Sydney fell to 3-8 following last week’s trip to The Cattery, but there were plenty of positives to take away from the 22-point loss.
Sydney has won their last two games over the Eagles by convincing margins, making the Swans a worthwhile upset play this week.
The Swans have never opened as the underdog at home to the Eagles, while West Coast’s track record against Buddy Franklin poses a few concerns. In his last two games against the Eagles, Buddy has combined for a whopping 10 goals.
For the Swans, the key to winning this game will be getting the ball to Buddy cleanly inside 50, but also winning the third quarter. Both sides are 5-6 in the third term this year, but with a two-decade-long hoodoo on their back, take the Swans to add to West Coast’s misery in Sydney.
Tip: Back Sydney To Win @ $2.24
Monday June 10, 3:20pm, MCG
Collingwood have an extra couple of days to dwell on last week’s controversial loss to Fremantle at the ‘G.
The Pies fell victim to a blown umpiring decision and a clutch Michael Walters goal, but the good news is, Monday’s game against the Demons presents as the ideal bounce-back game.
If it wasn’t for wayward goal kicking (again), the Demons would probably have an extra win next to their name. Melbourne lost a heartbreaker last week to the Crows, a game that saw the Dees once stick to the script of winning the disposal and inside 50 battle, but not the scoreboard.
For Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley, this game shapes up a lot like last weeks. The Demons can match the Pies through the midfield, but given Melbourne’s lack of tall forwards, it’s hard to see them pulling off an upset.
Collingwood has won two straight over the Demons including last year’s 42-point blowout. The Pies are 8-4 as the home favourite over the last 12 months but try to keep in mind, Melbourne are also 7-5 as the line underdog during the same time span.
Perhaps more importantly though, Collingwood are 5-2 on the back of a loss. The Pies should win this, but back the Demons to keep things interesting.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line (+18.5 Points) @ $1.90
After a weekend of mostly one-sided contests, round 12 looks to show a lot of promise with many evenly matched teams playing against each other.
It starts on Friday night in Adelaide with Port taking on the Tigers and finishes with the traditional Queens Birthday game between Melbourne and Collingwood with both teams playing some excellent footy along with some other intriguing fixtures this weekend.
We have analysed all seven games and our complete 2018 AFL Round 12 tips can be found below.
Friday 8 June, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Power 72-Tigers 58
The football watching public rejoices this weekend with the prospect of two good teams playing against each other on footy’s prime-time slot for a change.
Eighth-placed Port Adelaide host reigning premiers Richmond at Adelaide Oval in what could be the match of the round.
When these two teams met last year, the Tigers defeated Port by 13 points in Round 15 at Adelaide Oval in what was one of the best wins in their premiership-winning season.
Dustin Martin and Kane Lambert dominated for the tigers, Dan Butler kicked three majors and Port Adelaide’s Chad Wingard recorded a career high 39 disposals.
Port and Richmond have met five times since Trent Cotchin elected to kick against the wind in the Power’s thumping 57 point win in the 2014 Elimination Final with the Power winning three out of the last five between the two sides.
The football landscape has changed since that infamous Elimination Final, Richmond has a premiership and Port has making up the numbers.
Richmond has played interstate twice this season and has lost both times. After a dominating 71 point win against Essendon last weekend, the Tigers seem to be back in their form we saw back in September last year.
Shane Edwards was best on the ground for the Tigers last weekend with 30 disposals, two goals and several scoring assists, Dustin Martin was outstanding with 28 disposals and Josh Caddy made the most of every opportunity with four goals.
Port Adelaide will be hurting from their three-point loss to the Hawks in Launceston last week. The lead was swinging both teams ways in the final quarter and the Power was able to kick back to back goals to lead with 10 minutes to play. Robbie Gray kicked four for Port in a low scoring contest.
Many would also argue that Port was robbed of some critical free kicks at such a crucial stage in the match.
The Tigers will come into this game wanting to get a win on the road in the bank for season 2018 and will be too good for Port in what is sure to be a tight, close game.
Back Richmond To Cover The Line (-4.5 Points)
Saturday 9 June, 1:45pm, GMHBA Stadium
Cats 96-North 59
The surprise packet of season 2018, North Melbourne heads down the highway to GMHBA Stadium to take on the Cats.
The two sides last met in Round 2 of 2017 where Geelong snatched a thrilling one point win over the Roos at Etihad Stadium. North had led all day but the Cats took the lead only in the final minute to snatch the victory from the Kangaroos. Geelong had trailed by 25 points at three quarter time, it was the Cats desperation which got them the thrilling win.
Last quarter efforts from Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood was the key to the Cats victory in this match.
In the past five meetings between the two sides, North Melbourne has won three with the Cats two. The contests have been relatively close such as the Roos six point semifinal win in 2014, and last year’s one point thriller.
North Melbourne can also lay claim to having beaten Geelong in their most recent encounter at the Cattery when they beat the Cats by 33 points in Round 4, 2015.
Geelong was ruthless against the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium beating them by 85 points last week. Gary Ablett put on a clinic with 37 disposals and three goals to his name as the locals saw fit to boo a four-time best and fairest and former captain of the club.
Mitch Duncan, Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Tim Kelly were all effective in a win that solidifies the Cats spot in the top eight,
North Melbourne also had a day out against Brisbane last week at Etihad Stadium. The Roos dominated all day with a five goal to none first quarter and went on to thump the Lions by 54 points.
Ben Cunnington again dominated in the midfield with 18 of his 28 disposals contested, Shaun Higgins ran rampant around the ground and had a career-high 38 possessions and the debutant Paul Ahern impressed with 29 disposals on debut.
Despite many writing the Kangaroos off as the wooden spooners, they sit sixth on the ladder with 7 wins-4 losses and are most likely to play finals in 2018.
Geelong has the same win/loss ratio and only beat the Roos on percentage.
This is set to be a cracking match between two quality sides this Saturday afternoon but one can not tip against the Cats at home.
Back Geelong To Cover The Line (-14.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 9 June, 4:35pm, Spotless Stadium
GWS 134 - Suns 26
The battle of the AFL’s children…sorry, expansion clubs takes place this Saturday at Spotless Stadium with the Giants taking on the Suns.
When the two last met in Round 2 of last year, the Giants thumped the Gold Coast Suns by a record 102 points at Spotless Stadium. GWS dominated all over the ground with Jeremy Cameron booting six goals and Toby Greene kicking five. Josh Kelly, Dylan Sheil tore the midfield apart and Phil Davis kept Tom Lynch goalless for the entire day. It was a record-breaking day for the Giants with the club kicking its highest ever score and greatest winning margin.
In the short time both these sides have been in the competition, GWS leads the head-to-head with six wins and four losses.
The Giants are coming off a season-defining win over the Crows at Adelaide Oval. Coming off four straight losses and their 2018 campaign hanging in the balance, GWS put on their best performance in a sensational 16 point win on the road.
Jeremy Cameron booted three goals including two vital ones in the last quarter and the midfield dominance of Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly paved the way for a famous victory for the Giants.
To say last week was a disaster for the Gold Coast Suns would be an understatement. Not only did Geelong belt them by 85 points, in the second quarter Geelong had 123 disposals to the Suns 55, they allowed the Cats to kick nine unanswered goals and the turnovers could be enough to make coach Stewart Dew burst – if hasn’t done so already.
With the Giants coming off a stellar win on the road, expect the Suns to put up somewhat of a fight but GWS will be too good.
Back Gold Coast To Cover The Line (+45.5 Points)
Saturday 9 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Saints 55-Swans 126
It’s another tough task ahead for the struggling Saints as they face the Sydney Swans back home at Etihad Stadium this Saturday night.
It was the Callum Sinclair show the last time these two sides met in Round 17 of last season. Sinclair was a late call-up to the Swans side and kicked five goals as the Swans went on to beat the Saints by 42 points and it would have been more had they been able to kick straight for that night for a total of 14. 17 (101) to the Saints 9. 5 (59)
The Swans got the job done against Carlton last Friday night and the Saints lead a late charge against the top of the ladder West Coast in the last quarter only to go down by 13 points.
The Swans trailed the Blues at halftime of their encounter last weekend but it was the Swans class that was able to get them their 30 point win. Midfielders Issac Heeny, Luke Parker and George Hewitt impressed while Buddy was able to finish the night off with three goals.
St.Kilda hasn’t won since Round one, but have put up a fight against league leaders Richmond and West Coast in the past fortnight. The Saints trialled the Eagles by 48 points at three-quarter time but the Saints kept on coming, with Tim Membrey kicking three of the six unanswered goals in the last quarter, giving the top of the ladder Eagles a scare.
The Saints have shown signs they are capable of causing an upset this season, but haven’t beaten the Swans since Round 9, 2012. Expect the Swans to have too much class this Saturday night.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-28.5 Points)
Sunday 10 June, 1:10pm, Gabba
Lions 62-Dons 84
Both coming off heavy losses last round, Brisbane and Essendon should be one of the most interesting games in Round 12.
Brisbane caused one of the biggest upsets of season 2017 when these two sides last met, beating the Bombers by eight points at Etihad Stadium in round 15. Essendon led at every break but allowed Brisbane to boot six of the last seven goals of the game, with Lion Ryan Hester kicking the goal that put them in front with just under two minutes left. At the end of the game, Essendon’s CEO Xavier Campbell famously took to twitter to vent his disappointment at his clubs performance.
The Lions have beaten Essendon in two of the last three meetings against the clubs and have been in the hunt in every game they’ve played at home this season.
Brisbane was blown away by North Melbourne as they went down to the Roos by 55 points last week. North kicked five goals to one in the first quarter and the Lions were never in the contest. Despite the Kangaroos dominance, the Lions were able to fight it out in the second half but it was too little, too late for them.
Dayne Beams was able to shake off the tag from North’s Ben Jacobs and defender Harris Andrews was able to ensure that Ben Brown had a quiet day with only two goals.
Dreamtime at the G turned out to be a nightmare for Essendon. David Zahararakis went down with a suspected collarbone injury in the first quarter, Orazio Fantasia had a suspected problem with his right knee but was able to play out the game.
Essendon showed some fight in the second quarter and kicked four out of the next five goals in the second quarter, getting to within 12 points of Richmond but the Tigers flexed their muscle and belted the Dons in what was a disappointing night for the club.
Despite two bad games against North and Richmond, the Lions have been competitive in every match they’ve played this season and despite having only one win this season, are every chance to get the four premiership points this Sunday. It’s a matter of which Essendon decides to show up.
Back Brisbane To Win @ $2.20
Sunday 10 June, 4:40pm, Gabba
Freo 71-Crows 68
The Adelaide Crows make their debut on the new Optus Stadium and take on Freo this Sunday afternoon.
It was one to forget for Fremantle when these two last met in Round 10 of 2017. Adelaide thumped the Dockers by 100 points with indigenous boys Eddie Betts, Charlie Cameron and Wayne Milera kicking three goals each making the most of the indigenous round celebrations. Andy Otten came back from a knee-reconstruction and booted four, Josh Jenkins also had a day out kicking three and Rory Sloane kept Nat Fyfe quiet.
Many footy fans recall the memorable clash between these two sides in Round 9, 2015 in which Freo defeated the Dockers by 11 points in what many recall as the great Nat Fyfe v Patrick Dangerfield game. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see a match like that between these two teams on Sunday.
Fremantle was outclassed by Collingwood going down by 61 points at the MCG and Adelaide were shocked by the Giants in an upset loss at home.
The Dockers went with youth in last weekend’s bringing in six changes to the side from the previous week but Collingwood was too good for them. Freo was able to kick seven goals to prevent it from being a major blow out.
Adelaide was stunned by GWS at home last Sunday. In what was a tight see-sawing contest between the two sides, the Crows went down by 16 points. Crows young gun Darcy Fogarty kicked a goal three minutes into the final quarter to put them in front but GWS charged forward in one of the upsets of the season. Bryce Gibbs, Matt Crouch and Rory Laird got plenty of the football but pinned their hopes on Eddie Betts to do some magic. It didn’t work.
The Crows are coming off two bad losses in a fortnight and much like their opponent last week, a good win on the road could get them back on track for season 2018. However, Fremantle has only lost once to visiting side at Optus Stadium and have made the new ground their fortress.
Back Adelaide To Cover The Line (-19.5 Points)
Monday 11 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Dees 91-Pies 133
In previous years, Melbourne used to consider their annual Queens Birthday clash against the Magpies as their Grand Final, but this is 2018 and the Dees are in red hot form making a charge to their first finals series since 2006.
When these two last met in Round 23, Collingwood defeated Melbourne by 16 points and made Melbourne sweat it out the next day to see if they would play finals or not. Results didn’t go the way of the Demons the next day, resulting in West Coast taking the eighth spot on the ladder and the Demons missing out on percentage.
The two sides also played out a thriller on the Queen’s Birthday match when Jack Watts kicked the sealer with two minutes to go, ensuring Melbourne won by four points.
Inspired by the Wolf of Wall Street’s Fugazi chant, the Dees kept on their winning ways with a clinical 49 point defeat of the Western Bulldogs. Despite high profile recruit Jake Lever going down with an ACL injury, Melbourne was able to get the job done with Angus Brayshaw achieving a career-high 39 disposals, Alex Neal-Bullen impressed and Jesse Hogan’s five goals were the standouts for the Dees ensuring the club had a convincing win for skipper Nathan Jones 250th game.
Collingwood was able to destroy a young and inexperienced Fremantle side in their 61 point win at the MCG last Sunday. Tom Phillips and Steele Sidebottom were amongst the influential for the Pies and mature age debutant Brody Mihocek kicked four goals and has already become a cult hero amongst the Magpie Army.
Both teams have been in some great form of recent and they are sure to put on a show for Freddie Mercury’s birthday this Monday.
Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-9.5 Points)
The second bye round of the 2017 AFL season gets underway with a Thursday Night AFL Grand Final rematch between the Sydney Swans the Western Bulldogs and there are interesting matches set to take place right across the weekend.
The Brisbane Lions are the only side without a realistic chance of finishing in the top eight and every win can see teams leap several positions on the AFL ladder.
We are confident that we can keep on finding winners in the AFL this weekend and our complete 2017 AFL Round 12 tips can be found below.
Thursday 8 June, 7:20pm, SCG
Sydney Swans 88 - Western Bulldogs 42
This is the second Grand Final rematch between these two sides this season and it is something of a surprise that Sydney have opened as favourites.
Sydney went into the bye on the back of a disappointing loss at the hands of Hawthorn and it really is tough to see how they are as short as their current price.
The Swans have won only six of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear loss, while they are 5-8 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs went into their week of with a win over St Kilda and it really would not surprise to see them go on a run as we enter the second half of the regular season.
They have won six of their past nine games as away underdogs for a massive profit and they are a most impressive 8-1 against the line in this scenario.
There is no better bet in the AFL this weekend than the $2.05 currently on offer for a Western Bulldogs win.
Back Western Bulldogs To Win @ $2.05
Friday 9 June, 7:50pm, Adelaide Oval
Adelaide Crows 111 - St Kilda 54
The Adelaide Crows have lost their place on top of the AFL Ladder, but they will still go into this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.
Adelaide went down to Geelong last Friday night and they will be keen not to suffer back-to-back defeats for the second time this season.
The Crows have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and they are 7-3 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda went into the bye after suffering back-to-back losses at the hands of both Sydney and the Western Bulldogs.
Winning away from home has not really been an issue for St Kilda and they have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a narrow profit, while they are 4-3 against the line in this situation.
St Kilda have shown this season that they are capable of mixing it with the best teams in the competition on their day and they are worth a gamble at their current quote of $5.
Back St Kilda To Win @ $5
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 10 June, 1:45pm, MCG
Hawthorn 79 - Gold Coast Suns 95
This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend.
Hawthorn were nothing short of disgraceful against Port Adelaide last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the Gold Coast Suns as favourites.
The Hawks have won six of their past eight games as favourites, but they are a very poor 2-6 against the line and it is tough to back them off their last start effort against the Power.
Gold Coast survived a late scare to beat West Coast last weekend and they will take plenty of confidence from the fact that they recorded a dominant win over Hawthorn earlier this season.
Winning away from home has proven to be an issue for the Suns and they have lost their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
These are two teams that are very tough to trust from a betting standpoint and this is a clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.
Saturday 10 June, 4:35pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 121 - Fremantle 64
Fremantle have lost two games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash with the Brisbane Lions as clear favourites.
The Dockers have definitely regressed somewhat in the past two weeks and their chances of playing finals football will likely fly out the window if they fail to beat the Lions this weekend.
Fremantle have only played one game as away underdogs over the past 12 months, but they did get the job done and they covered the line in the process.
Brisbane’s round 1 victory over the Gold Coast Suns now seems like an eternity away and it really is tough to see them ending their losing streak this weekend.
Not only is their recent record against Fremantle nothing short of horrible. they have lost nine of their past ten games as home underdogs and they are 1-9 against the line.
Fremantle really should be able to return to winning form and cover the line of 22.5 points in the process.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-22.5 Points)
Saturday 10 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Essendon 131 - Port Adelaide 61
Essendon have the home-ground advantage, but it is Port Adelaide that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Port Adelaide were nothing short of dominant against Hawthorn last Thursday night and their record against weaker sides this season has been excellent.
The Power have won four of their past five games as away favourites for a clear profit and they are 4-1 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon were far from disgraced against Greater Western Sydney on Saturday night and they could have come away with the four points if it was not for a poor end to the first half.
The Bombers have won six of their past ten games as home underdogs for a big profit and they are a most impressive 9-1 against the line in this scenario.
The market looks to have got this clash just about right, but the betting market that does stand out here is the Under in Total Points betting.
Backing the Under in Essendon games at Etihad Stadium has been a profitable betting play in recent seasons and the Under has saluted in 20 of the past 32 games played by Port Adelaide.
Back The Under
Sunday 11 June, 4:20pm, Etihad Stadium
Carlton 71 - GWS Giants 70
The Greater Western Sydney Giants are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.
GWS survived another scare against Essendon to make it four wins on the trot and it really is tough to see them going down to this Carlton outfit.
The Giants have won seven of their past nine games as away favourites for a narrow profit and they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton went into their bye on the back of a fighting loss against North Melbourne, but this is the toughest challenge that they have faced this season.
The Navy Blues have won three of their past ten games as home underdogs for a narrow profit, but they are only a middling 5-5 against the line in this situation.
This is the chance for the Giants to make a statement in Melbourne and I am backing them to do just that with an emphatic victory.
Back Greater Western Sydney To Beat The Line (-32.5 Points)
Monday 12 June, 3:20pm, MCG Stadium
Melbourne 104 - Collingwood 100
Melbourne ended their Queen’s Birthday losing streak against Collingwood last year and they will go into this year’s edition as clear favourites.
The Demons went into their bye with a comeback win over the Gold Coast Suns, but consistency has been a big issue so far this season and stringing together back-to-back wins has been easier said than done.
Melbourne have won only six of their past 11 games as favourites for a clear loss and they are a disappointing 4-7 against the line as the punter’s elect.
Collingwood made it three wins on the trot with a tough victory over Fremantle and they can move into the top eight with a win over Melbourne.
The Magpies have won four of their past 11 games as underdogs for a clear profit and they are a most impressive 9-2 against the line when being given a start.
There really is not a great deal between these two teams and I am keen to back Collingwood with a start of 8.5 points.
Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+8.5 Points)
There were a number of mismatches on Friday night in the AFL last season and they have done their best in 2016 to avoid this situation, but Hawthorn could give the under strength Essendon a touch up.
There is plenty of exciting football set to take place on Saturday and the highlight could be the battle of the Scott Brothers when Geelong do battle with North Melbourne, while Port Adelaide take on the Western Bulldogs and the West Coast Eagles face the Adelaide Crows.
The round concludes on Monday when the Melbourne Demons take on Collingwood in their traditional Queen Birthday’s fixture.
Friday 10 June, 7:50pm, Etihad Stadium
Essendon 43 - Hawthorn 151
Essendon have lost six of the past seven games played between the two sides and there is very little chance that they can improve that record this weekend.
Essendon have won just three of their past 23 games and they have been on the receiving end of a number of big defeats in recent weeks, with their inability to score points proving to be their major issue.
Hawthorn made it two wins on the trot against Melbourne last weekend, but they were not particularly impressive and their record against the line as favourites in the past 12 months is a lacklustre 11-15.
This will be the ninth time that Hawthorn have given away such a big start in the past five seasons and they have won all four games, but their record against the line is only a middling 4-4.
There is no doubt that Hawthorn will win this fixture, but there is no betting value whatsoever.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 11 June, 1:10pm, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide 97 - Western Bulldogs 100
This is one of the most interesting games of the round and there is very little separating these two teams.
Port Adelaide have found a semblance of their best form in recent weeks and they go into this game on the back of two impressive victories against Melbourne and Collingwood.
The Power are currently narrow underdogs and they have not won a game as home underdogs in the past 12 months, but there has been plenty of support for Port Adelaide in the past two weeks and it would not surprise to see them start this game as favourites.
The Western Bulldogs have won seven of their past 12 games away from home, but they have not been a profitable betting play and their record against the line in this scenario is a middling 6-6.
The Bulldogs showed that they are still capable of winning close games when they beat the West Coast Eagles last weekend and they are sure to take plenty of confidence from that performance.
At this stage it is very tough to separate these two sides and I would like to wait until later in the week before deciding which way to go with this fixture.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Saturday 11 June, 4:35pm, The Gabba
Brisbane Lions 64 - Fremantle 147
Fremantle finally recorded their first win of the season when they proved far too strong for Essendon last weekend and they have an excellent chance to make it two wins on the trot.
While punters are not getting carried away with Fremantle after just the one win, they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
This is a position in which they have struggled in the past 12 months, but they have actually won the only two games that they have started as home favourites in this time period.
The Brisbane Lions produced a typically average performance against Carlton last weekend and they will not take any confidence from the fact that their recent record against Fremantle is absolutely horrendous.
Brisbane have won just two of their past nine games as home underdogs, but to be fair their record against the line in this situation is a credible 6-3.
It would not surprise to see Fremantle string a couple of wins together now that they finally broke their duck for the season and they are a safe bet this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
Saturday 11 June, 7:25pm, Etihad Stadium
Geelong 105 - North Melbourne 74
There is always plenty of interest when Geelong and North Melbourne do battle as the two sides are coached by identical twins Chris Scott and Brad Scott and this year’s clash is especially important as both these teams are genuine top four contenders.
Geelong ended their losing streak with a narrow victory over the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and they still have room to improve on that performance as their goal kicking was very poor.
They have opened as narrow favourites for this fixture and they have won nine of their past 12 games as the punter’s elect, but their record at Etihad Stadium is far from the best in the competition and they have beaten the line in just eight of their past 18 games as favourites at the venue.
North Melbourne returned to winning form with a dominant display against Richmond and they are one team that clearly does not have any problem playing at Etihad Stadium.
The Kangaroos have won three of their past four games as underdogs for a very narrow loss, but they are 5-2 against the line in that scenario and they have covered the spread in 61 percent of their games at their home venue.
The Etihad Stadium factor could prove to be the difference in this clash and North Melbourne are a good bet to record their fourth straight win against Geelong on the trot.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Win @ $1.95
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 11 June, 5:40pm, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles 76 - Adelaide Crows 105
The West Coast Eagles suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but they are clear favourites to return to winning form at their fortress that is Domain Stadium.
West Coast are a completely different team when they play in front of their home fans and they are 12-0 as home favourites in the past 12 months, while they have failed to beat the line in just one of these games.
Adelaide have flown under the radar in recent weeks, but they made it three wins on the trot with their big victory over St Kilda last weekend and they will take plenty of confidence into this fixture.
Like the Eagles, the Crows generally save their best football for their home fans and they have won just three of their past nine games as away underdogs.
You simply can’t bet against West Coast at Domain Stadium and they should be able to comfortably cover the line of 17.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back West Coast Eagles To Beat The Line (-17.5 Points)
Sunday 12 June, 1:10pm, Etihad Stadium
St Kilda 110 - Carlton 78
St Kilda have a surprisingly poor record against Carlton in recent seasons and they have lost the past four games played between the two sides.
St Kilda looked to be making some positive strides and they recorded back-to-back wins for the first time in over a year when they beat Essendon and Fremantle, but they regressed spectacularly last weekend with an incredibly poor performance against Adelaide.
They will go into this game as underdogs and this is a position in which they have really struggled in the past 12 months – they have won just three of their past 19 games and they are 8-11 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton’s much improved season under new coach Brendon Bolton continued when they produced a professional effort to beat the Brisbane Lions last weekend and this will be the fourth game that they will start as favourites.
The Blue have won their previous three games as the punter’s elect, while also covering the line, and if they continue to play this stellar brand of football they are a great bet to maintain that perfect record on Sunday afternoon.
Recommended Bet: Back Carlton To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)
Gold Coast Suns
Sunday 12 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Richmond 114 - Gold Coast Suns 97
Richmond had their winning streak snapped by North Melbourne and after that performance it is back to square one for Damien Hardwicke’s men.
While they were very poor against North Melbourne, they are still very short-priced favourites to win this clash and this is not a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months.
Richmond have won only five of their past ten games as home favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is a very poor 2-8.
Tiger’s fan bemoaning their teams form should probably spare a thought for those that support the Gold Coast Suns as they have not even looked like winning a game in recent weeks.
The Suns have won just one of their past nine games as away underdogs and their record against the line is a truly woeful 1-8.
Richmond should win this game, but they can’t be trusted from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Sunday 12 June, 4:40pm, Spotless Stadium
GWS Giants 105 - Sydney 63
This will be the second Sydney Derby this season after Sydney scored a comfortable victory over Greater Western Sydney earlier this year.
Greater Western Sydney have come along in leaps and bounds since that defeat and they are set to challenge the Swans for favourtism, despite the fact that they have lost two games in a row to Adelaide and Geelong.
Their record at Spotless Stadium is stellar and they have won eight of their past 11 games at the venue, while two of those victories have come as underdogs.
Sydney have moved into outright premiership favourtism after recording three straight wins over Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Gold Coast and they continue to be one of the best betting teams in the competition.
The Swans are 7-2 as away favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this scenario is a profitable 5-4.
They have never lost a game at Spotless Stadium and I don’t think that will change this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Sydney Swans To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Monday 13 June, 3:20pm, MCG
Melbourne 104 - Collingwood 58
This is the traditional Queen’s Birthday Meeting between Melbourne and Collingwood and this is the first time in a number of seasons that Melbourne are set to start as favourites.
Melbourne lost their second game on the trot against Hawthorn last weekend, but there was still plenty of merit in the performance and they were far from disgraced.
Favoritism is not a position that Melbourne have been in a great deal in recent seasons and they are still coming to terms with it – they have won just two of their past six games as the punter’s elect and their record against the line is identical.
Collingwood were very poor against Port Adelaide last weekend and they have now won just four of their past 14 games in head to head betting markets.
While they have not thrived in head to bead betting as underdogs, their record against the line in this scenario is a profitable 8-6 and they are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 9.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back Collingwood To Beat The Line (+9.5 Points)