Form becomes the ultimate factor in the race to September action, and the matchups become more and more decisive every week.  

With the top four and top eight unpredictable, we’ve put together our top tips and analysis to give punters the best hope in cashing in on a big weekend of footy.  

So read ahead to make good use of the AFL Round 20 Preview.  

It’s a clash that pits two out of form teams struggling to impose themselves against each other, offering up a real toss of the coin on Friday night.  

The Power couldn’t assert a lot of dominance over a severely weakened Richmond side at home until the fourth quarter, whilst the Blues continued to play with a lot of uncertainty against the Roos, scraping home.  

We already got a taste of this fixture a few months back where the Blues went to Adelaide and rolled the Power in the fourth quarter.  

Port has quite a big advantage playing the Blues off a five-day break, and they typically play Marvel well, with only one game this year where they just beat the Saints.  

The Blues have been conceding quite heavily and sit in the bottom four in the competition for points against, which is going to become an issue against assertive sides in the back end of the year.  

The Power get outworked from contest to contest quite easily, and don’t enjoy a lot of contested footy, which is where the Blues beat them last time.  

It’s clear when Charlie Dixon gets going, the Power becomes instantly more competitive, and they need him to fire to take the reliance off Mitch Georgiades.  

If the Blues can stop the midfield scoring, they should be able to lockdown enough defensively to always stay within touch.  

A home crowd at Marvel certainly helps, and taking a punt on the Blues off a short break is risky, so backing in the close margin helps to meet in the middle. 

Tip: Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.80 

The Cats were shown up again defensively against the Dogs, outplayed at home, and find themselves back in the hunting pack inside the top eight.  

North Melbourne was stiff against the Blues, hurt by some questionable umpiring decisions late, but stayed in the game and were the better team for the most part.  

Geelong is on a 12-game winning streak against the Roos, dating all the way back to Round 15, 2015 when the Roos last won.  

You can sense the freedom the Roos are playing with in the backend of this season, unafraid to attack the corridor at any given opportunity, knowing winning or losing has no effect on them.  

This aspect spun the Blues, and it certainly could spin the Cats who have found it difficult to defend rapid inside 50 entries.  

What the Bulldogs proved is that Geelong can’t defend the tall forward, so a b big performance from Nick Larkey will go a long way to keeping the Roos in the contest.  

Conversely, the Roos also struggle to maintain the main key forward, and last time out, Jeremy Cameron had six goals, which is every chance to reoccur.  

Cleaning up turnovers is vital for North, and the Cats will definitely punish them in transition if they do.  

If you’re going off form, it’s quite hard to pick a definite winner, but the Cats have flexed their muscles against poorer sides even in poor form, so it’s going to take another big effort from the Roos to cause a major upset.  

But hey, they’ve got to beat them again at some point, right?  

Tip: Geelong to cover the line (-25.5) and Jeremy Cameron to Kick 2+ Goals @ $2.24 

The Q-Clash heads up to the Gold Coast for its second edition of 2024, and it has massive implications for both sides.  

Brisbane is in ripping form, shredding through the competition in the last two months, seven on the trot.  

Gold Coast unsurprisingly got nowhere near the Giants away from home, although did have some inaccuracy to blame.  

On paper, the Lions should comfortably win it, but it’s extremely tough to call when it’s the most in form team against the best home side in the competition.  

It’s the work the Lions get done forward of centre that makes them so dangerous at any given moment, and the Suns have been able to restrict forward 50 scores at home better than anyone else.  

Gold Coast need to hurt the Lions with pressure, as the Lions disposal efficiency can be quite poor around the contest, which is made up for with their inside 50 efficiency.  

The Suns dominated the Giants in inside 50s but couldn’t convert, which isn’t an option against the Lions who will punish quickly.  

The centre clearance battle is a flip of the coin, and the Suns tend to dominate at home which gives them that extra edge.  

When the Suns play attacking and wide open footy, they become a lot more of a threat forward of centre, and they’ll trouble the Lions most if they can generate scores from a plethora of individuals.  

The conditions don’t advantage the Suns in this clash, and the Lions will bring down a healthy following, so it’s hard to see their winning streak being toppled by the Suns.  

A loss for the Suns completely kills their chance of playing finals, if it wasn’t already killed.  

Tip: Brisbane to win by 1-39 @ $2.15 

All eyes are on Essendon as yet another season seems on the brink of disaster, and if you back what Ross the boss says, the Saints will make this game hell for the Bombers.  

They were nearly home and hosed against the Crows, but collapsed late, and now every game means that extra bit more than it should.  

The Saints dismantled the Eagles, who decided to finish up at halftime, which will suit the Saints coming out of it without bruises and bashes.  

A nine-goal second quarter the Bombers conceded against the Crows is the crux of their issues at the moment, a defensive muddle when the going gets tough.  

St Kilda have certainly improved in the backend of the year, but the polish in their game is still what holds them back at times.  

Both sides lack the finishing edge needed to defeat top sides, and goal efficiency has proved costly this year but will separate the sides on the day.  

Earlier this season, it was a four-point thriller on Easter Saturday, where the Saints were the better side for a large part but couldn’t finish the job on the scoreboard, so they’re certainly capable of winning.  

Essendon’s fast-paced movement can impact the scorecard quickly like we saw in the third quarter against the Crows, but if they can’t lock down defensively, they won’t stand a chance again.  

A loss for the Bombers and it’s season over with their run home, but this is one of the final few they shouldn’t drop.  

Tip: Essendon to win by 1-24 @ $3.25 

It’s absolutely tinkering on season over for the Demons, who were yet again destroyed by the Dockers last week.  

The Giants were clinical, and that was it, as they were smashed around the contest and killed in inside 50s, but still found a way to win.  

Melbourne was punished for having no secondary ruckman, and the loss of Christian Petracca is equally as hurtful to their ability to dominate at the stoppages.  

It’s hard to tell what type of Melbourne side will turn up, as it’s not completely season over, but the confidence that they can mingle with the top certainly isn’t there.  

The Giants have been able to sustain their pressure around the contest even when losing them, sitting third for tackles laid this season, compared to the Dees who have fallen into the bottom eight.  

The inability to defend the key forward targets has been a major issue for the Dees for a few weeks running and the Giants are more of a threat than Fremantle in that department.  

There has been a lack of scoring threat on the Demons end, and the midfield stock doesn’t tend to score big either.  

The Giants always click at this time of year, and there’s no showing they’ll back down anytime soon.  

Tip: Giants to win and Jesse Hogan to Kick 2+ Goals @ $2.28 

Earlier in the year, the Eagles went against the odds and steamrolled their crosstown rivals, but now the tides have turned, and it seems unfathomable the Dockers could let it happen again.  

The Eagles looked dejected against the Saints, some players barring any desirable level of effort and smashed around every contest.  

The Dockers made light work of the Demons and have been dominant around the contests in recent weeks, bar their game against the Hawks.  

The level of class is leaps and bounds above the Eagles, and with no conviction in their disposal, the Eagles don’t make themselves competitive with their style.  

Fremantle’s disposal efficiency leads the competition, and their shot efficiency also lands in the top five of the competition.  

The Dockers lost the last contest with a lack of contested poise, and if they’re able to switch that around, there are no areas the Eagles will have an advantage in.  

Turnovers need to improve for the Eagles to stand a chance, but with the Dockers on the hunt for some payback, and a top four spot looming, it’s non-negotiable.  

Tip: Hayden Young to have 25+ disposals and Jye Amiss to Kick 2+ Goals @ $2.35 

It’s been a season to forget for the Pies, who crumbled to their worst last week against the Hawks, utterly embarrassed.  

But weirdly, sitting in 18th is a team that wouldn’t be too disheartened with their season, and have put up a fight almost every week.  

There is no reason the Tigers can’t cause a major upset, although in the Pies form, an upset maybe be disrespectful to the Tigers, who went to Adelaide and battled hard for three quarters against a top eight side.  

There is no defensive element to the Pies structure, which makes them so vulnerable in every centre clearance lost, and fast break against them, which makes any team a chance against them.  

Richmond’s forward pressure has been a highlight of their game throughout the year, and if they’re able to work hard contest to contest they should get opportunities falling their way.  

Both sides rank in the bottom four for inside 50s, but the Tigers are last in the competition for average marks inside 50, which will be the difference if they can’t convert their opportunities.  

The class difference is also an issue the Tigers face weekly, and whilst they’re likely to make it a close contest, the Pies will likely outclass them at some point.  

The Pies season has turned embarrassing, but you never know, it only takes one game to change everything.  

Tip: Collingwood to win by 1-39 @ $2.10 

A couple weeks ago this is a clash that had little value with respective form lines, but the Dogs have hit their straps recently, and the Swans have shown vulnerability lately.  

Sydney went down to the Lions narrowly by two points last week but weren’t embarrassed by any stretch, leading for most of the second half.  

The Dogs have knocked off 2nd and 3rd in the last two weeks of footy and are finding their rhythm at the right time.  

It’s their stoppage craft that has them exploiting teams directly from the stoppages, and their flurry of entries are becoming hard to stop, although they do need to fix up their accuracy.  

The Swans were clinical inside 50 and battled hard to reduce the Lions scoreboard impact they’re used to exceeding at the Gabba.  

2020 was the last time the Dogs won at the SCG, and it’s been few and far between, with the previous win before that back in 2016, so the pattern is eye-catching… 

Sydney is on par with most midfields in the competition statistically, but they’re so good because of how clinical and efficient they are in the forward half.  

This has the potential to be a real shootout, similar to the Fremantle game a few weeks back, and if Rory Lobb can get a hold of Amartey along with the loss of Papley, the Swans will need to find scores through their midfielders.  

The Dogs will struggle to match the Swans for speed in transition and that’s where this game may be won or lost, as opportunities shouldn’t be limited for either side.  

A win for the Dogs will set up a push for the top four let alone finals, but the Swans need to keep on proving there are levels to this.  

Tip: Swans to win by 1-39 and Marcus Bontempelli to have 25+ disposals @ $3.29 

Beware of the Hawks, it’s scary and it’s a team that seems hard to overcome in every contest they commit to.  

But if the Hawks are to continue their journey to September, the task gets no harder than a trip to Adelaide to play the Crows on their fortress.  

Adelaide produced a stunning fourth-quarter comeback against the Bombers, turning things on its head late to steal the win by two points, along with a nine-goal second quarter.  

Hawthorn’s pace forward of centre has collapsed a lot of opposition defensive structures and that mantra shouldn’t give them a worry against the Crows who conceded 113 points against one of the weaker forward lines in the competition.  

What makes the Hawks unique is they’re non-reliant on marks inside-50 and arguably more dangerous at ground level in open play.  

The Crows won’t be easy-beats with all that being said, and they themselves piled a healthy 115-points against the Bombers and are unbeaten in their last two games at the Adelaide Oval.  

Adelaide is proficient out of the centre stoppages and have been able to lift their intensity from contest to contest, ranking higher up for their tackle pressure.  

The more the contest becomes a scrap, the more it favours the Crows, but it’s hard to see the Hawks taking enough pace off the ball for that to happen.  

Form is where the value lies here, but in Adelaide, it’s a difficult call. With all this momentum and so much on offer, there is no time to lose for the Hawks.  

Tip: Hawks to win by 1-39 @ $2.45 

2023

The AFL ladder remains razor tight as we look ahead to another crucial round of footy.

Rivalries are all the rage this week, starting on Friday night with a highly anticipated clash between the ladder-leading Pies and a rejuvenated Carlton outfit pushing for a top eight spot.

The Dogs and Giants are familiar foes, and Saturday’s game in Ballarat has all the makings for an instant classic, while the second instalment of the Q-Clash shapes as an important one for Brisbane’s finals aspirations.

Throw in the second Showdown between Port Adelaide and the Crows, as well as a huge Sunday blockbuster between the Tigers and Dees, and you have all the makings for a cracking weekend!

Riding a five-game winning streak and now eight points clear atop the ladder, it feels like the Premiership might be Collingwood’s to lose at this point.

Craig McRae’s side continues to look the part, not only rallying each week when their backs are against the wall, but also playing a collective, emotional brand of footy, the likes we haven’t seen in maybe forever.

Carlton, on the other hand, find themselves riding their own five-game winning streak, only with everything left to prove. 

A cruisy game against West Coast last week resulted in a percentage-boosting 71-point victory, setting the stage for an epic rivalry clash on Friday night that has lived up to the hype in recent times. 

Two of the last three clashes between the Pies and Blues have been decided by less than a goal, Collingwood prevailing 85-57 when they last met back in Round 10. 

Brody Mihocek was star of the show booting four goals, and it’s fair to say Collingwood’s forward line has gone up a gear since then. 

Jamie Elliott is in career-best form, while Beau McCreery remains an underrated cog in McRae’s machine that continues to deliver on a weekly basis. 

The Blues have also found some form in the forward half of the ground, Charlie Curnow enjoying a 10-goal fill-up last week that puts him in the driver’s seat for the Coleman Medal. 

Unfortuantely though, Carlton might have to go about this week’s game without a few of their key stars. Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps, and Sam Docherty are just a few on the injury report at time of publish, posing a potential nightmare against a deep Collingwood attack. 

Speaking of form, aside from Carlton’s win over Port a fortnight ago, it’s hard to get overly excited about the Blues’ recent winning streak. 

Michael Voss’ men has no doubt been much-improved when it comes to ball movement and discipline since the bye, but compared to a battkle-tested Collingwood side, wins over West Coast, Freo, and Hawthorn don’t quite stack up. 

With the crowd also likely to play a major factor, backing against Collingwood right now seems almost impossible. 

Tip: Back the Pies to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90

It may not be a textbook rivalry, but make no mistake, there is no love lost between the Dogs and the Giants. 

GWS’ recent six-game surge has seen them enter the finals fray, Adam Kingsley’s side knocking off the Suns in dominant fashion last week thanks to another masterclass from Toby Greene. 

Scoring against the Giants has been a tough ask during this recent purple patch, GWS giving up less than 80 points in all six games – a worrying sign for a Bulldogs team that has struggled in front of goal all year.

Finally, the Dogs came good last week with a stirring 41-point win over Essendon, Luke Beveridge’s side showing some real poise with their forward half entries, as well as so much-needed pressure through the middle of the ground. 

If they can build on that effort, there’s no telling how far the Dogs could go, and given the fact they’ve covered in six of their last seven games in Ballarat, it’s no surprise to find the Doggies as favourites. 

Side by side, both teams boast a similar profile, but the Bulldogs do have a clear advantage when it comes to clearances and fewer turnovers. 

The Giants look every bit a finals team, but with Bailey Smith back in form, and the Bont and the rest of the forward line starting to find some confidence, the Dogs to win a low-scoring game looks the play. 

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Win & Under 154.5 Total Points @ $3.00 

Chris Scott brings up game No. 305 as coach of Geelong on Saturday, surpassing club legend Reg Hickey as the all-time leader. 

The Cats find themselves still inside the eight ahead of a favourable clash against the Dockers, but there’s no time to waste with a backlog of teams breathing down their necks. 

Geelong was arguably the most disappointing team of Round 19, victims of a sluggish start against the Lions that has cast further doubt over a Premiership repeat.

To their credit, the Cats had some late chances and lost by only 11 points, but the real story was told on the stat sheet as the Lions dominated the inside 50s, clearances, and contested possession numbers comfortably. 

Fortunately, the footy gods have blessed Geelong with an opportune home game against out of sorts Fremantle. 

With a bottom four finish beckoning, the Dockers have some serious issues to address looking ahead to next year, starting with the fact they simply can’t seem to find points.

Whether Justin Longmuir has lost the playing group remains to be seen, but after winning a final last year, Freo might be leading the charge for most disappointing club in season 2023. 

The Cats have made a habit of bouncing back from poor defeats for what feels like two decades now, and given the narrative around Scott, plus the fact their season is basically on the line from here on out, it’s hard to see Geelong not winning this by a decent margin. 

Tip: Geelong Over 15.5 Goals @ $2.05

The second Q-Clash of the year shapes as an important one for the Brisbane Lions on Saturday afternoon. 

Chris Fagan’s side won’t be short on confidence after winning their last nine games against their state rivals, but with a chance to move one step closer to sewing up a home final, this is still a big game in terms of the makeup of Brisbane’s future. 

The season is close to over for the Suns, but there is a mathematical chance the Gold Coast somehow makes the eight. 

Steven King’s side would need to win out and results to go their way, but based on last week’s capitulation against the Giants, the chances seem slim.

At the forefront of the Suns’ problems is the out of form Ben King, but further down, Gold Coast’s struggles in front of goal have led them to rank 13th in points scored.

Toby Greene had a field day last week, another danger sign with Brisbane’s potent forward line speaking for itself. 

With Fagan’s changes down back proving a masterstroke against the Cats, it might be lights out on the Suns’ finals chances. 

Tip: Back the Lions 40+ @ $2.95

The finals chances of the Bombers and Swans hang on a knife edge heading into this pivotal clash at Marvel on Saturday night. 

Essendon’s hopes have suffered a serious blow on the back of blowout losses to Geelong and the Bulldogs, two puzzling results for a club that has defeated Melbourne and pushed Collingwood to the sword this year. 

Almost in reverse, the Swans have come roaring back into the finals picture, rattling off a pair of wins over the Dogs and Freo in succession. 

Both clubs have their own individual problems, but what they do have in common is low-scoring, sluggish games. 

The Bombers clearly lacked any direction last week against the Dogs, trapped inside their own back half on multiple occasions, too afraid to attack up the middle.

The Swans, meanwhile, have hardly resembled the sharp, lethal team that made the Grand Final last year, finally kicking more than 100 points for just the second time since Round 7 last week against Freo. 

The inconsistent nature of both clubs makes this a tricky game to tip, but it is worth noting three of their last five meetings have been decided by no more than nine points. 

If Buddy Franklin has an impact like he did last week against Freo, the Swans look a good bet – particularly if they can take the game on and apply pressure, just like the Dogs did last week. 

Despite their struggles, Sydney has been the second-best tackling team in the competition, meaning if the Dons aren’t up for the challenge in front of their home fans, this could be another soul-crushing loss. 

Tip: Back the Swans to Win 1-39 @ $2.30

The second Showdown of the year looms large with so much at stake for both clubs. 

On recent efforts, it feels as though the Crows deserve to play finals this year, but after another honourable loss to Melbourne at the ‘G last week, Matthew Nicks’ men find themselves six points adrift sitting 13th. 

Port has also suffered a mini slide of late, losing back-to-back games to Carlton and Collingwood. 

The Power lost no admirers, falling by two points to the heavy Premiership favourites in what was arguably the game of the year. But with a home final still on the line, winning over these next five weeks is paramount. 

Crows fans can head to the Adelaide Oval with a smile knowing they won the first Showdown quite comfortably back in April, but it’s fair to say Port have been a different beast since then. 

Connor Rozee and Zak Butters are playing some scintillating footy, complimented by a forward line that ranks third in points-per-game – largely thanks to the Power ranking first in inside 50 entries. 

Of course, the Crows are more than capable of rivalling Port on the score sheet, if they can kick straight, that is.

Wayward shots on goal have been the biggest problem for Adelaide this year, as we saw last week when they booted a costly 13.15 in the loss to Melbourne. 

At this point, it’s fair to wonder if this young Crows outfit has simply run out of steam this late in the year, but the trends do suggest another close one could be on the cards. 

Adelaide has covered the line in nine of its last 10 games against opponents ranked higher on the ladder, so if they start on time and find some confidence in front of the sticks, the two-goal head start could prove very handy. 

Tip: Back the Crows to Cover the Line (+16.5 Points) @ $1.90

A win is a win, but after just scraping home against lowly North Melbourne last week, the sixth-placed Saints suddenly look the most vulnerable of the eight teams still contesting a finals spot.

St Kilda ran out less-than-convincing eight-point winners, storming home late thanks to some more Jack Sinclair brilliance, and a well-timed goal from Jack Higgins.

Four points is all a coach can ask for, but Ross Lyon will be the first to admit his low-scoring side needs to find some form in a hurry.

Up next, another game against one of the competition’s cellar dwellers, but if you’ve paid attention to the Hawks at all this year, you’ll know this is far from a ‘gimme’.

Sam Mitchell’s young squad was the better team for almost four quarters last week against Richmond, folding late in the final term to lose by a single point.

A win like that would have done wonders for a rebuilding team, but there were still enormous positives to draw with James Sicily putting on a clinic against Jack Riewoldt, and Mitch Lewis enjoying another four-goal haul.

In terms of confidence, neither side inspires much belief from a betting standpoint, and as far as stats are concerned, there really isn’t much separating the pair.

The Hawks and Saints are both averaging 20 scoring shots a game and close to 11 goals, while the two are almost even in clearances and inside 50s.

The one area that could really decide this game though, is turnover.

Hawthorn plays an aggressive brand of footy that has seen them undone against elite defensive teams, but when they get some run through the middle and force the opposition to turn the ball over, they can be lethal on the rebound.

Ross Lyon’s defensive brain could make this matchup very interesting, but with the Hawks prevailing by 10 points when these two sides met earlier in May, you have to fancy the brown and gold a chance on the back of last week’s efforts.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90

Winners of three straight, the Tigers and Dees both step out at the ‘G on Sunday with different goals in mind.

Richmond’s recent form hasn’t been enough to see them inside the eight, the yellow and black still sitting 10th on the ladder – even after rising from the ashes last week to defeat Hawthorn by a single point.

Ultimately, Melbourne would have to do a lot wrong to slide out of the top four, but with just as many points separating the Dees from third on the ladder, a home final is still very much up for grabs.

The Demons prevailed by 18 points when they faced the Tigers back in Round 6, a game that saw Richmond held to just one goal in the final term, whilst Jacob van Rooyen set the MCG alight with three.

Plenty has changed since then, particularly up forward at Melbourne with Christian Petracca providing a real spark on the score sheet over the last few rounds.

In terms of goals, neither side has found scoring easy this year, as we saw last week with Jack Riewoldt completely shut down by James Sicily.

Down the other end, the Dees do look the more complete side down back, but after giving up 100+ points to the Lions, and 93 to the Crows last week, there are danger signs for Steven May and company.

The Tigers had some low-scoring, ugly games during the midway point in the year, but Shai Bolton, Dustin Martin, and Tim Taranto have all been in great nick over the last month – not to mention some handy efforts from Jack Graham and other role players.

Melbourne looks as though they might be coming good just at the right time, but on the back of two questionable defensive performances, the Tigers might put up a decent number on the scoreboard.

Tip: Richmond Over 77.5 Total Points @ $1.87

Basement dwellers West Coast and North Melbourne cap off the round on Sunday in what is arguably one of the most intriguing games of the year.

With four points between them, the battle down the bottom is almost as fascinating as the one up the top, made even more unpredictable following North Melbourne’s close shave last week against St Kilda.

As for West Coast, not much has changed.

A 71-point defeat to Carlton was the latest in a long list of beltings last week, but given North Melbourne’s ability to play even the worst forward lines back into form, who knows how this one might play out.

Playing on the road has also been a huge problem for the Roos and interim coach Brett Ratten. At Marvel, the Kangas have been a tough out, but away from home, they’ve given up an average of 16 goals to opponents.

Having only kicked as many as 14 in the win over the Giants back in Round 2, Eagles fans can only dream of coming close to that number – but if Adam Simpson chooses to play attacking footy for a change, maybe we’ll see some fight from the wooden spoon favourites.

On the other side, Nick Larkey remains one of the most dangerous forwards in the competition, and after Charlie Curnow’s 10-goal bag last week, there’s a good chance we see the big man kick a bag.

With all that in mind, the Over seems the best play in a game that might be entertaining – even if it is for the wrong reasons.

Tip: Over 170.5 Total Points @ $1.88

2022

Only four weeks remain on the home/away schedule, setting up another crucial round of footy with just eight points separating 1^st from 7^th.

Round 20 kicks off with a potential finals preview between Fremantle and Melbourne from Perth, followed by another important game for the Bulldogs on Saturday when they travel to Geelong to face the red-hot Cats.

The Tigers and the Lions both have plenty at stake on Sunday when they meet at the ‘G, while the Bombers will be hoping to build on last week’s agonizing loss with a win over North Melbourne at Marvel.

Who will keep their finals hopes alive?

Best bets ahead of another wild weekend of footy, below.

The Dockers find themselves in a familiar position heading into their rematch with Melbourne.

Fremantle famously knocked off the Dees back in Round 11 after losing convincingly to Collingwood a week earlier, and they’ll now follow a similar script following last week’s draw against Richmond.

Two points are better than none, but whether last week’s slip-up costs the Dockers a top four spot remains to be seen.

As for the reigning premiers, the Dees are also a slight chance at finishing outside the top four following a narrow loss to the Bulldogs last week on a last-second goal from Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.  

Melbourne’s run home is treacherous with Collingwood, Carlton and the Lions to round things out, while Simon Goodwin also needs to address his side’s issues around the stoppages last week against the Dogs.

The third quarter saw the Dees undone in their previous meeting, but looking back at the stat sheet, it’s worth noting the Dockers won the clearance battle and the uncontested possession numbers by quite a clear margin.

The absence of skipper Nat Fyfe for the next week or two is a huge blow to Freo’s top-four chances, but on the plus side, they did beat the Dees without him at the ‘G earlier in the year.

Home-field advantage is also a huge plus this week, while there’s also some obvious issues down back at Melbourne after Steven May was involved in another on-field argument last week.

Tip: Back the Dockers 1-39 @ $2.35

There’s no one hotter than the team wearing black and white right now.

Jamie Elliott’s walk-off winner against Essendon last week will go down in Collingwood folklore, and although one could argue that their growing list of narrow wins is slightly concerning, at the same time, first-year coach Craig McRae has to be wrapped with the leadership his side has shown.

A win over Port on Saturday could go a long way to sewing a top-four spot, but there’s every chance this one turns into another thriller at the ‘G.

Port’s season is virtually on the line following last week’s honorable loss to the Cats, but Ken Hinkley’s men have every right to feel confident knowing they’ve won their last three games against Collingwood dating back to 2020.

All three of those contests have been decided by a margin of 1-39 points, and we’ve seen a similar trend unfold with each of Collingwood’s last nine wins resulting in the same.

The Pies were smashed in the stoppages last week, an area Port Adelaide fared quite well against Geelong.

Backing the Power to win in Melbourne is always a risky proposition, and there isn’t enough insurance on offer to justify a bet at the line.

Therefore, the Pies 1-39 seems a safe enough bet given Collingwood’s recent history, and the fact Port is sweating on a few key injuries to Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades, and Zak Butters.

Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.15

The Swans have an enviable run home over the final month, starting this week with a game against the rival Giants.

The last two Battle of the Bridge games have been classics, but this one has all the makings of a blowout with the Swans eying a potential top-four finish.

Sydney prevailed by 20 points when these two met to open the season, and it’s fair to say the Swans have really hit their stride now with three convincing wins over the Dogs, Freo, and the Crows in succession.

John Longmire’s midfield is firing on all cylinders, while a healthy Buddy Franklin has gone a long way to making up for some sloppy losses to Essendon and Port earlier in the year.

To their credit, the Giants did play a strong first half last week against Carlton, but it’s been obvious since the sacking of Leon Cameron that this side can’t be relied upon to score more than 60 points.

It also doesn’t help that players like Harry Himmelberg and Tim Taranto seem to go missing week to week, not to mention the fact the Giants have been the sixth easiest team to score against.

With the Swans playing for a potential home final, we should see the very best of the Bloods this week.

Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-30.5 Points) @ $1.90

There’s plenty at stake this week for the Saints as they face another do-or-die clash against Hawthorn.

St Kilda kept its season alive last week with a 28-point win over West Coast in Perth, one that featured a five-goal bag from Dan Butler and a monster 40-disposal game from Jack Steele.

The Saints can take confidence into Saturday’s game knowing they’ve won four straight over the Hawks, but like the market suggests, a win against Hawthorn is far from a guarantee.

Sam Mitchell’s young side has now won three straight after belting North Melbourne last week in Tassie, largely thanks to a big game from key forward Jack Gunston.

Scoring goals against the Saints has come easy for most teams this season, and although St Kilda ran out comfortable 69-point winners over Hawthorn back in Round 4, this still has a sense of danger to it.

The biggest problem for Brett Ratten has been finding a reliable goal-scorer each week.

Max King was firmly in the Coleman Medal race at one point, but as we saw last week, he’s still prone to a cold game here and there.

On the flip side, the Hawks have a number of ways they can hurt you, but at the same time, it’s hard to read too much into three wins over the likes of Adelaide, West Coast, and North.

From a betting perspective, this isn’t a game that inspires much confidence, but based on the fact neither side seems capable of playing a full four quarters, it wouldn’t be surprising if the scoreboard gets a good workout.

It just so happens that the last three encounters between the Saints and Hawks have all gone Over the Total, so that looks the safest play.

Tip: Over 166.5 Total Points @ $1.88  

The Dogs take a trip down the highway this week for a long-awaited rematch against the new flag favourites.

Luke Beveridge’s side lost by 13 points against the Cats back in Round 12, a game they’d probably like to have back after allowing Geelong to kick seven goals in the opening term.

The Dogs have largely been all bark and no bite since then, but they still managed to keep their finals hopes alive with a stirring win over Melbourne last week at Marvel.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan’s last-second goal could go down as the defining moment of the Bulldogs’ 2022 campaign, but there was just as much to like about some of the personnel decisions Beveridge made defensively.

Ruckman Tim English also gave Max Gawn a serious run for his money, and his recent uptick in form couldn’t have come at a better time with the Dogs facing a very tricky run home.

For all their recent positives though, beating the Cats in Geelong still looks an enormous ask.

The Cats have won 15 in a row at GMHBA, while the Doggies’ last win at the Cattery came way back in 2003.

Melbourne’s defensive issues down back and a late wave of momentum helped the Dogs over the line last week, and while you can’t take anything away from them, it’s hard to see the Cats succumbing to the same kind of errors.

Geelong’s brand of footy is in a league of its own right now, and with three of their final four games to be played at home, this is an enormous opportunity for them to make a statement and move a step closer to locking up the minor premiership.

Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $1.96

The Blues are trending towards their first finals berth since 2013, but this is still a must-win game for Michael Voss’ side with the Lions, Dees, and Pies ahead over the coming weeks.

Adelaide, meanwhile, has nothing left to play for at this point other than of course, revenge.

The Crows have lost four in a row following last week’s defeat to the Swans, and although they showed some real heart against Collingwood two weeks ago, it’s hard to ignore the fact they lost by 48 points to Carlton back in Round 8.

A return home to the Adelaide Oval should make this one a little more interesting, but when you look back at the stats from that game, it’s hard to back against the Blues.

Adelaide was held to just two points in the second and third quarter, while down the other end, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow had everything their own way combining for nine goals.

The Crows are a plucky team that would like nothing more than to spoil Carlton’s finals party, but given they’ve given up the third-most goals to opponents this year, this shapes as another big day for two of the Coleman Medal leaders.

Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Suns saw a line ruled through their finals chances last week with a loss to the Lions, but there were plenty of positives to take away and build upon heading into next year.

Stuart Dew’s side led by seven points at three-quarter time, only to fall apart defensively by allowing the Lions to kick five goals in a forgettable final term.

Star forward Levi Casboult and Brownlow vote-getter Touk Miller were enormous, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the pair put up similar numbers this week against a West Coast team that just gave up five goals to St Kilda’s Dan Butler.

To their credit, the Eagles have been showing some fight over the last month, at least on the scoreboard.

West Coast pushed Richmond to the brink a month ago and showed plenty of life in the final term a fortnight ago against Hawthorn.

Still, a road trip to the Gold Coast doesn’t bode well for a team that is basically counting down the days.

On paper, the Suns are averaging nearly seven more scoring shots a game, not to mention 15 more inside 50s compared to the Eagles.

Overall, neither side seems capable of playing a full four quarters, but since the last four games between these two sides have been decided by 1-39 points, the Suns should return to the winner’s circle.

Tip: Back the Suns 1-39 @ $2.25

The Tigers and the Lions have been involved in some important games over the last few years, and Sunday’s meeting at the ‘G will be no exception.

Brisbane took a big step towards locking up a top-four spot last week with a win over the Suns, but the job is far from over with one of the toughest remaining schedules in the entire competition.

The Lions famously beat the Tigers in a Prelim at the Gabba a couple of years ago, but the sides split their meetings one win apiece last season with respective blowout victories.

As for the Tigers, it’s must-win from here.

Last week’s draw against Fremantle could do more harm than good with the Saints and Dogs all competing for the final spot in the eight, and there’s still no word on whether Tom Lynch or Dustin Martin will make their returns to the side.

Form wise, the Lions do look the much safer bet here, but the fact they haven’t won a game at the MCG is a massive concern for a team that nearly came off second-best to the Suns only a week ago.

Elsewhere, the Lions also have some injury woes with star defender Daniel Rich ruled out with a concussion, while Brisbane’s lack of production up forward is another worry with Eric Hipwood struggling to find form.

Statistically, these two clubs are very similar on paper, but the Lions do own a distinct advantage around the clearances – an area that has been a problem for Chris Fagan at various points this season.

Like the market suggests, this is a very tough game to pick, but if Lynch fails to make it through training, another week of relying on Jack Riewoldt and Shai Bolton doesn’t bode particularly well for the Tigers.

Both teams have plenty to play for, but a win on the big stage – something they failed to achieve against Melbourne five weeks ago – has to be of the utmost importance to Brisbane.

Tip: Back the Lions to Win @ $2.02

The Bombers played one hell of a football game last week against Collingwood, right up until the final minute.

Essendon hearts were broken as their defensive structure completely fell apart in transition, setting up Jamie Elliott’s memorable goal to win it on the final siren.

A loss like that is a tough pill to swallow no matter where you stand on the ladder, but for a club looking to end the year on a high note, there were still plenty of positives to take away.

North Melbourne, meanwhile, reverted to their old ways with a solid 46-point belting at the hands of the Hawks.

The Roos gave up eight goals in the opening term whilst managing only three measly points, another low-point for a club that is almost destined for the wooden spoon.

Looking ahead, the Dons should pick up a comfortable victory if recent form is anything to go by.

Essendon has won seven in a row over North dating back to 2017, and they’ve also averaged nearly eight more scoring shots a game.

Tip: Back the Bombers 40+ @ $1.70  

2021

Only four rounds of footy remain on the calendar as we look ahead towards two huge blockbusters this weekend.

The Dons are looking to move a step closer to playing finals when they take on the Swans at the Gabba on Saturday night, followed by a critical game between 10^th and 11^th when the Dockers and Tigers meet in Perth.

All eyes are fixed firmly on the top eight, so be sure to build a bank ahead of the finals with our AFL Round 20 tips below!

North Melbourne put a huge dagger in the Blues finals hopes last week with an impressive 39-point win at Marvel, a loss that has now heaped enormous pressure on head coach David Teague to try and salvage something before the end of the season.

The sight of the Saints, who are also desperate for a win, won’t come easy for Teague with his side struggling through injury.

A six-goal bag from Max King wasn’t enough to see St Kilda over the line against West Coast last week, but the Saints should rest a little easier knowing Eddie Betts, Zac Williams and potentially Harry McKay will all be missing for the Blues.

Despite losing to the Eagles, Saints coach Brett Ratten has to be happy with the way his side is trending.

The Saints managed to erase a four-goal deficit at three-quarter time to lose by eight points, and if King gets another healthy share of the footy, he should have no trouble punishing a Carlton team that ranks fourth in goals allowed to opponents.

St Kilda has won each of its last five games against Carlton at Marvel, while they’ve also played to a healthy 6-4 record as the home favourite.

After falling off big time in the second half last week, everything points towards a Saints win.

Tip: Back St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.10

The Dogs have a huge opportunity to increase their percentage atop the ladder when they host the Crows in Ballarat.

Luke Beveridge’s side got a little revenge over flag fancies Melbourne last week with a convincing 20-point win, a game that saw the Dogs kick away in the final term with a couple of clutch goals from Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Mitch Hannan.

The Crows managed to snap their four-game skid with a double-digit win over Hawthorn, but it’s fair to say this is a big step up in class against the current co-favourites for the premiership.

Adelaide has suffered back-to-back blowout losses to the Dogs over the last two seasons, and there’s a good chance we see a similar result given the current form of Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Bruce and Aaron Naughton.

Defensively, the Crows rank second in goals against this year, which spells potential disaster against a Bulldogs outfit that leads the league in goals for.

With Josh Dunkley a chance at returning from quarantine, we should see the Dogs putting up a big number on the scoreboard.

Tip: Bulldogs Over 93.5 Total Points @ $1.87

Three wins from their last five games has given North fans something to cheer about as they look make a late push to avoid the wooden spoon.

The Shinboners put on a show last week in their demolition job over Carlton, but it’s hard to expect a similar result on Saturday against a well-oiled Cats outfit that has firmed into flag favouritism.

Geelong made it four wins on the trot last week in their revenge game against Richmond as Tom Hawkins and Esava Ratugolea both snagged four goals each.

The Cats will be eager to keep the momentum rolling heading towards the finals, but this does shape as an interesting game away from home in Hobart.

The Roos have played some good footy down in Tassie of late, emerging with a draw against GWS, a fair effort against the Lions and a win over the Suns earlier in the year.

Geelong doesn’t have a whole lot of experience playing in Tassie and it’s also worth noting they’ve only left Melbourne five times this season.

With some rain also forecast earlier in the week, North and their outstanding 12-6 record at the line looks tempting.

Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+26.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Dees have been a very profitable betting play on the back of a loss this season as they try and put last week’s defeat against the Bulldogs behind them.

Melbourne has played to a 5-2 record at the line in this scenario, a worrying trend for the Suns after blowing a healthy lead last week against the Lions at the Gabba.

Gold Coast has proven a frisky customer at times this season and they certainly have enough firepower up forward to make a contest of this.

That said, their tendency to fall away late in games has proven costly on more than one occasion – a problem that won’t fly against a Dees side looking to reclaim the top spot on the ladder.

Melbourne has lost only three times to the Suns in their 14 meetings, while they might have the added advantage of playing at Marvel unless things suddenly change.

Statistically, the Dees were impressive last week dominating possession before some wayward goalkicking saw them undone.

With a chance to right their wrongs against a team they’ve dominated for many years, the Dees should be winning big.

Tip: Back Melbourne to Cover the Line

The top four is still a realistic possibility for West Coast following a pair of impressive victories over Adelaide and St Kilda in recent weeks.

Dom Sheed was the start in the thrilling eight-point win over the Saints last week, a performance Adam Simpson will be hoping his side can replicate back on the road in Melbourne.

Collingwood, on the other hand, has come crashing back down to earth following their memorable win over Richmond three weeks ago.

To their credit, the Pies put up a good fight against Port Adelaide last week at Marvel, but the back line failed to come up with an answer to Charlie Dixon as the Power dominated the inside 50 count.

The Eagles will be looking to follow Port’s lead, but they may have to contend with Jeremy Howe, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Chris Mayne in their return from injury.

On the flip side, the Pies are also set to spend the rest of the season minus captain Scott Pendlebury – a significant clubhouse leader whose absence will be felt.

Like always, West Coast’s form on the road has left a lot to be desired, so there’s a case to be made for Collingwood at the line if they get a few big names back.

The Pies have played to a strong 8-6 record at the line as the underdog over the last calendar year, while West Coast has gone 6-11 at the line on the back of a win.

If Collingwood can start well like they have in recent weeks and avoid the goal-kicking accuracy that plagued them against Port, they should be very much in this.

Tip: Back the Pies to Cover the Line (+11.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Dons and the Swans will have a firm eye on the ladder ahead of another crucial game at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Essendon squandered an opportunity to secure a spot in the eight with a 13-point loss to GWS last week, a result that has left the Bombers on the outside looking in with four games to play.

The Swans are set to play finals from here, but they’ll be eager to lock in a top four spot with only four points separating them from Port.

Sydney heads into this game as the firm favourite after pounding Fremantle by 40 points last week and they’ll be eager to pick up the season sweep over the Bombers after winning by three points when they met in Round 4.

Buddy Franklin put on a show that night with a three-goal bag and his form since then does raise alarm bells for a Bombers outfit that struggled to contain Jesse Hogan at times last week.

The big man managed to escape suspension at the Tribunal earlier in the week and it wouldn’t be suprising if he wreaks havoc on the Bombers alongside for a second time. 

The Bombers are set to welcome a few key contributors back into the fold, but this still looks a tough ask against a Swans side looking to make a statement before the finals.

Sydney has played to a league best 12-6 record at the line this year, and I’m happy to take them to cover.

Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-16.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Hawks and the Lions have been relocated to Tassie after Sunday’s game was originally scheduled to be played in Melbourne.

Not surprisingly, Brisbane is laying a healthy -30.5 at the line ahead of their clash at UTAS as they look to build on last week’s impressive come-from-behind victory in the Q-Clash against the Suns.

After a chaotic week in the headlines, Hawthorn is simply looking to avoid its first wooden spoon since 1965.

The ongoing situation between Jeff Kennett and Alastair Clarkson is no doubt causing a distraction off the field, while last week’s big loss to the Crows has seen Hawthorn firm into $2.25 favourites in Least Wins market.

As far as Sunday’s game goes, the Lions should prove tough to beat if they can dominate inside 50 like they did last week against Gold Coast.

The Hawks will likely punish Brisbane for another slow start, but considering Hawthorn has been one of the easiest sides to score against all season – a problem that has only gotten worse in recent weeks due to injury – the Lions should have no trouble moving one step closer to the top four.

Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.02

The injury ravaged Dockers and Tigers get together on Sunday afternoon for a crucial game between 10^th and 11^th.

Recent injuries to two of the game’s top stars, Nat Fyfe and Dustin Martin, has taken plenty of the shine off this contest and also left punters with a difficult decision to make when it comes to betting.

Neither side managed to crack 60 points last week in respective losses to Sydney and Geelong, so there’s a good chance we get a low-scoring battle like the one we witnessed when the Dockers and Tigers met at Metricon last year.

It’s hard to feel overly confident in either side making much noise come September, but there’s still a good chance the winner of this game winds up in the top eight if results go their way.

Tip: Under 148.5 Total Points @ $1.88

2020

2019

It’s a fight to the finish with only four rounds remaining as a handful of teams look to make a push for a finals spot.

The Crows are hanging on for dear life as they face a crucial match against the Saints on Saturday night, while the Bulldogs are hoping to take Adelaide’s place as they travel to Brisbane to face the red-hot Lions.

Nothing is a guarantee as we reach the pointy end of the season, but if you’re looking for some winners, be sure to read our entire 2019 AFL Round 20 Preview below.

It’s always a big occasion whenever North and Hawthorn get together, and although the stakes aren’t quite as high as years past, there’s still plenty on the line.

The Hawks hit a bit of a snag last week in their last-ditch attempt to play finals. The windy conditions in Launceston cost Hawthorn on the scoreboard, as Alastair Clarkson’s side kicked seven goals and 18 behinds in their 27-point loss to the Lions.

At one stage North Melbourne also held hopes of playing finals. A three-game losing skid has put a dampener on that dream, but there’s still plenty of positives to look forward to in future years with Rhyce Shaw at the helm.

There’s certainly no love lost between these two sides in a fixture that holds plenty of bad blood.

Hawthorn walked away 16-point winners when these two sides met back in Round 3, while North should hold fond memories of their 28-point win over the Hawks last season.

Despite last week’s shortcomings on the scoresheet, the Hawks did a lot right. Hawthorn dominated the disposals, clearances and inside ’50s by a wide margin, it was just their wayward goal kicking that let them down.

North, on the other hand, return from Perth on the heels of a 49-point belting at the hands of the reigning premiers.

Clarkson won’t be taking North lightly on Friday night – especially with the slim chance of playing finals still alive.

Even so, the Roos have allowed the fourth-most goals to opponents this season, which should leave the Hawks with plenty of opportunities to come good on last week’s troubles in front of the sticks.

Tip: Back the Hawks to Win @ $1.95

With only four rounds remaining, this feels like a make or break kind of game for Port Adelaide on Saturday.

The Power suffered their third straight loss last week at home to the Giants – a one-point defeat that left many Port fans wondering if Ken Hinkley is indeed the man for the job.

Essendon should play finals from here, but they too have questions to answer. It took the Bombers the better part of four quarters to dispose of the Suns on the Gold Coast last week, a trend that doesn’t instil much confidence ahead of the finals.

These two sides met twice last year with the Bombers winning in blowout fashion on both occasions.

Essendon has now won six straight home games dating back to Round 9, and with a standout 5-2 record as the home favourite against the Power, it’s difficult to fade the Bombers in the market.

Aside from their Showdown win against the Crows last month, you have to rewind all the way back to Round 11 to find Port’s last win on the road. The Power has lost three straight games to the Bombers and are also 5-4 on the back of a previous loss.

With all that in mind, it’s tough to tip against the Bombers here. You’ll need to get creative if you’re looking for some value though, and as it just so happens, both sides are among the league’s worst when it comes to winning the first quarter.

The Power rank fifth in second quarters won this year, while the Bombers are the fourth-best third quarter side in the competition. Those two stats alone make the Half-Time/Full-Time market worthwhile.

Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Port Adelaide/Essendon @ $6.50

The second Battle of the Bridge game holds nothing more than bragging rights for the Swans, while the Giants, on the other hand, are looking to make one last push for a top-four spot.

Closing the gap on the fourth-place Tigers will be tough, especially if the Giants take their foot off the gas like they did last week against Port Adelaide.

GWS led by over two goals at three-quarter time, only to allow the Power to storm home in the final term to lose by a point.

Last week’s narrow result might be the scare the Giants need to kick into gear, and they should take confidence in the fact they’ve won the last two Battle of the Bridge games, including a 41-point defeat over the Swans back in Round 6.

John Longmire is on the hot seat, but on their day, there’s still a lot to like about the Swans. Sydney actually sat dead even at halftime against Geelong last week, right before a sloppy fourth quarter cost the Swans a chance.

The biggest problem plaguing the Swans this season has been stopping the inside 50’s. Sydney ranks second behind the Suns in entries allowed, which of course spells trouble against Jeremy Cameron – who booted three goals against the Swans earlier in the year.

The line is large ahead of this game, but it makes sense considering the Giants have won their last two games against the Swans by an average of 45-points. Don’t be afraid to back GWS to Cover.

Tip: Back the Giants to Cover the Line (-23.5 Points) @ $1.90

Top of the table Geelong travels to face the Dockers in Perth for the first time since 2017.

Geelong has won its last four games over Fremantle, two of which came on the road.

After a cinderella midseason run, the Dockers have slipped all the way down to 12^th on the ladder after losing four of their last five games.

Freo was embarrassed by the Bulldogs last week at Marvel Stadium in their 47-point loss, and although home-field advantage counts for a lot in Perth, the Dockers won’t hold particularly fond memories of their unconvincing one-point win over the Swans a fortnight ago.

Despite a couple of recent hiccups, the Cats still look the side to beat this season. As all good sides should, Geelong steamrolled over the Swans in the fourth quarter on the road last week in what was a strong bounce-back victory following their lacklustre effort against Hawthorn the week prior.

Tom Hawkins, who is due a big game, has also enjoyed plenty of success against the Dockers booting 11 goals in his last five outings against Freo.

It’s tough to tip against the Cats and their 6-3 record as the away favourite this season. This should be fascinating midfield tussle between Nat Fyfe and Patrick Dangerfield though, which could provide somewhat of a low-scoring contest.

The average Total in all nine of Fremantle’s home games this season is 136-points, putting the Unders in play on Saturday.

Tip: Under 148.5 Total Points @ $1.83

Five straight wins on the trot has the Tigers primed for a big finals campaign as they look to maul the Demons for the second time on Saturday.

The Tigers were outstanding last Friday night in slippery conditions against the Pies, making up for their Round 2 loss with a convincing 32-point win.

Melbourne sunk to new lows last week losing by 19-points to the Saints. It was a particularly poor day for Simon Goodwin’s side all around, and after losing by 43-points to the Tigers back in Round 6, it’s tough to find any confidence in the Dees this week.

The most impressive part of Richmond’s game in the last six weeks has been their creativity. Even when there’s nothing on, the Tigers have a knack for getting the ball inside 50, largely thanks to some clever work from Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia.

Melbourne has lost three straight games to the Tigers dating back to 2017, and it’s tough to see that streak coming to an end at the ‘G. Richmond has now won two straight at the home of footy, and with the fifth-best goal-kicking side meeting a Demons team that ranks second in goals allowed, this one has the makings of a blowout written all over it.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (-27.5 Points) @ $1.90

Somehow the Crows still find themselves in the eight despite losing four of their last five games.

Adelaide, like a handful of others, fell victim to Carlton away from home last week losing by 27-points.

The Crows now find themselves tied on points with the ninth-place Bulldogs, and as if one upset wasn’t enough, Don Pyke’s side might be in for another as they square off against the lively Saints this weekend.

St. Kilda is the latest team to benefit from a coaching change as the Saints have now won two on the trot.

Caretaker Brett Ratten has instilled some confidence back into the side after four straight losses prior to Alan Richardson’s sacking, and if you take a look at the schedule, St. Kilda’s easy run home makes them a serious chance for the eight.

The Crows belted the Saints by 29-points when they met back in Round 6 as Taylor Walker enjoyed a huge four-goal bag.

Fortunately for St. Kilda, Tex continues to be hot and cold in front of the sticks, which matches the Crows ball movement and general play of late.

The Saints present tremendous value on the road, and although they haven’t beaten the Crows in Adelaide since 2009, it’s worth riding these post-coach-firing hot streaks as long as you can.

Tip: Back the Saints to Win @ $3.05

All eyes are on Collingwood this week as Nathan Buckley hopes to right the ship following last Friday night’s implosion against the Tigers.

The Pies have now lost two straight games by a wide margin, both of which came against opponents they may or may not meet in the finals.

You can blame the injury list, Mason Cox or even the quality of opponent, but something seems a little off about Collingwood’s ball movement.

The good news is the Pies will meet the competitions easy-beats this weekend. With home-field advantage, this is a potential percentage booster for Collingwood, but Buckley’s side needs to ensure they take the Suns seriously on Sunday afternoon.

This is a huge test of Collingwood’s maturity, one Essendon nearly failed last week. The Suns led the Bombers for the better part of three quarters, coming home strongly, in the end, to lose by only 10-points.

The bookies have set an enticing line for this game, and it’s worth backing the Suns to Cover it.

Gold Coast has never beaten Collingwood in Melbourne, but in their seven road losses this year, the Suns have lost by an average margin of 40-points.

If Stuart Dew’s side can string together another strong three quarters like they did last week, they could pose a few problems for this understrength Collingwood outfit.

Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+34.5 Points) @ $1.90

A three-game winning streak has David Teague in the drivers’ as the favourite for Carlton’s head coaching gig next season.

Carlton’s effort was massive last week against the Crows, but the Blues might be in for a dose of reality on Sunday against the reigning premiers.

West Coast still finds themselves four points shy of the ladder leading Cats, but the Eagles can help their percentage this week by handing the Blues a big loss.

West Coast has won four of its last five meetings against the Blues, and while there’s a case to be made for Carlton’s pressure after laying down 85 tackles against the Crows last week, the Eagles’ class should shine through.

With that in mind, there’s nothing to say this game won’t be close. The last three meetings between West Coast and Carlton have been decided by 1-39 points, making the Margin a worthwhile play on Sunday.

The Eagles are 5-1 as the away favourite, but considering their last five trips to Melbourne have been decided by 1-39 points as well, take the value on offer.

Tip: Back West Coast 1-39 @ $2.06

The Lions head back to the Gabba to close out Round 20 with their six-game winning streak on the line.

Brisbane were far from their best last week down in Tassie, but they made the wayward Hawks pay by booting five goals in the third quarter to walk away with a 27-point victory.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, were at their very best last week against the Dockers. The Dogs won by 47-points at home, a game dominated by Bailey Dale and Jack Macrae as Luke Beveridge’s side makes one last push for a top-eight spot.

This is a must-win game for both sides with only four rounds remaining. For the Lions, a top-two finish is still on the cards, while the Dogs could rejoin the top eight with a win and a Crows loss.

The last three games between these two sides at The Gabba have been relatively close, although you do need to rewind all the way back to 2015 to find the last time the Lions defeated the Bulldogs.

There’s no doubt this game should be close considering the Dogs can match Brisbane’s pressure through the midfield.

The Bulldogs have built a reputation for storming home late in the fourth quarter, a worrying sign for the Lions as they tend to take their foot off the gas at times.

With only 16-points separating these two during the Dogs’ win back in Round 8, back the Lions to seek revenge in a close one.

Tip: Back the Lions 1-39 @ $2.10

2018

We could certainly get used to this.

The AFL has offered up a couple of gems to start Round 20, and if they are anything like last weekends prime-time blockbusters, footy fans are in for a treat.

As far as the ladder goes, who knows anymore.

It remains tooth and nail in the bottom half of the Top 8, and with upsets happening each and every week, it’s hard to keep track of who’s coming and who’s going.

Fortunately, our 2018 AFL Round 20 Preview is here to help you out, and you can check out all of our tips below!

Last week was fun for both of these teams, or at least the first half was.

Richmond and Collingwood lived up to expectations for the first two-and-a-bit quarters, while the Cats and the Lions also provided plenty of drama in the opening terms.

With both sides now having won two straight, we’re set for a blockbuster on Friday night, and you don’t have to look back very far to see how these two fared last time they met up.

The date was Round 13, and it was a game the Cats very easily could have won.

With the Tigers leading by just two-points at half time, the Cats were every chance to upset the reigning premiers at the G’, but sloppy play and a few kicking errors cost Geelong dearly.

In the end, the Tigers ran away with an 18-point win, but when we dive deeper, there’s plenty of reasons to believe Geelong can learn from their mistakes.

The Cats controlled the clearances and won the inside fifties battle, and if the Cats can feed Tom Hawkins the ball – the same Hawkins that kicked seven goals last week – who knows what might happen.

One of the most impressive parts about the Cats last weekend was their ability to put their foot down.

It’s been missing all season, but with the Lions up and about just two minutes before the major break, Geelong booted two goals to reclaim momentum and the scoreboard.

What happened next was vintage Chris Scott coacing.

Geelong kicked away, controlled possession and locked the ball inside their own half to win comfortably.

It will take that kind of game plan execution from Geelong they are to make up for not only Round 13’s shortcomings, but last years preliminary final disappointment.

Richmond were classy last week against the Pies, but at times, they really looked rattled when momentum swung Collingwood’s way.

You have to wonder what a healthy Magpie side could have accomplished last week, but those kind of mid-quarter lapses will certainly cost the Tigers this week against a near full-strength Geelong side.

Tip: Geelong To Win @ $3.45

Same Game Multi: Geelong To Win, Over 145.5 Match Points, Tom Hawkins 2+ Goals

Who’s playing finals? Hawthorn? Essendon? Or both?

The stakes are huge, and in front of what should be a rather large crowd, this old time rivalry could kick up a gear on Saturday.

Essendon were fantastic last week against the Swans.

When the game swung in the balance at half time, the Bombers of old would have folded, but full credit to John Worsfold’s team, Essendon looked fantastic.

The biggest takeaway from that game was not only the Bombers’ disposal efficiency, but also their work down back.

Limiting Buddy Franklin to just two goals was huge, and if Essendon can shutdown what has otherwise been an up and down Hawthorn forward line, they just might find themselves in finals contention.

Hawthorn, well haven’t they turned things around.

You can’t get too carried away with back-to-back wins over Carlton and Fremantle, but take nothing way from the Hawks, they looked downright dangerous last week in Perth.

The inclusion of Shaun Burgoyne was huge for the Hawks, and as if there was ever any doubt, the Brownlow Medal favourite, Tom Mitchell, was once again outstanding with 40+ disposals.

So what now? Who wins this showdown?

Round 7’s match was a no contest as the Hawks ran away with a 23-point win, but this is no doubt a much different looking Bombers’ outfit.

The X-factor for Essendon will no doubt be Orazio Fantasia, but he isn’t the only concern for the Hawks.

As other teams have discovered, when you pay extra close attention to Fantasia, the likes of Jake Stringer and Devon Smith can hurt you, especially if the Bombers apply their newfound midfield pressure.

Speaking of pressure, though, that’s been the Hawks’ bread and butter over the last fortnight.

Hawthorn recorded 66 tackles to Fremantle’s 47 last week, and it helps that Paul Puopolo has found some form.

The majority of this game will be won in the centre square, an area the Hawks have also been fairly dominant in.

The loss of Ben McEvoy looked to hurt this team, but Hawthorn’s ruck has stood strong, and if they can continue to win the ball, get it out to the wing and bomb it forward in the Luke Breust direction, it will be a long day for the Bombers’ back half.

It just feels like the likelihood of this being a blowout are slim, but Alastair Clarkson has been bang on with his selections in recent weeks, including the decision to play Ryan Schoenmakers up forward against the Dockers.

Hawthorn in a close one.

Back Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.55

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn To Win, Tom Mitchell 36 Or More Disposals @ $4.00

Who woulda thunk it?

The baby Lions aren’t so baby anymore, and North Melbourne could find themselves back in the Top 4.

North were killer last week against the Eagles, fending off the very few challenges West Coast threw their way in the second half to roll home to a comfy 81-41 victory down in Hobart.

The standout of the day was Mason Wood, who booted two crucial goals and tracked up 15 disposals.

Overall, though, the Roos were back to their exciting best, running with real purpose through the midfield to win the inside fifty count by a wide margin.

Brisbane, well the they have plenty to think about after last week’s trip to Geelong.

By halftime, it looked as though the Lions might get up, but it almost seemed like Chris Fagan changed the entire game plan in the second half, which of course suited Geelong nicely.

These two met back in Round 11 at Etihad Stadium, a game the Lions would like to forget.

It was all over by the end of the first quarter, as Wood, Jack Ziebell and Ben Brown combined for five goals.

At home, though, the Lions are a little different.

The crowd, albeit somewhat small, plays a factor, but unfortunately for Brisbane, The Gabba has been a stomping ground for the Roos in recent years.

Brisbane haven’t defeated North at home since 2014, but that aside, the Lions can easily take the points here if they a) mark up down back, and b) dispose of the ball efficiently by hand.

In the first half last week, the Lions looked so calm and composed with the ball.

Their handballing skills were phenomenal, as was Eric Hipwood in finding space down forward.

It will take a full four-quarter effort from Brisbane this week, something we’ve seen only a handful of times this season, but we can say the same for North.

The Roos have had many off days this season, and all it will take is for the likes of Harris Andrews to shut Brown down for the Lions to have a chance.

Tip: Brisbane Lions To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: Brisbane Lions To Win, Dayne Zorko 2+ Goals @ $3.50

It feels like every week is “do or die” for the Crows, but here we are once again speculating on whether or not Adelaide can actually make the eight.

The rest of the ladder has been kind to the pride of South Australia, but the Crows loss to Melbourne last week once again highlighted the glaring inconsistencies in this team.

The Adelaide Oval is supposed to be a fortress, but with a 20-point lead midway through the second quarter, somehow the Crows managed to let it all slip.

If it wasn’t for Taylor Walker, who kicked a must-have goal in the dying stages of the fourth quarter to draw the Crows back within nine-points, who knows where Adelaide would be right now.

One thing is for sure, though, the South Australian Showdown is the last thing the Crows need.

Port Adelaide’s resurgent 44-point win over the Dogs last week saw the Power hang tough in the Top 4, a big win in icy conditions down in Ballarat.

You shouldn’t need a reminder, but Round 8’s Showdown was nothing short of incredible.

Steven Motlop’s last minute goal lifted the Power over the Crows 95-90, but unfortunately for Adelaide as well as the fans, a lot has changed since then.

This game, just like the last, should come down to the midfield battle, and although the Crows have the firepower, Port have the form.

Chad Wingard, Ollie Wines and Jared Polec all combined 83 disposals last week against the Dogs, and if they assert that kind of dominance on the Crows, there’s nothing stopping Charlie Dixon from booting another five goal bag.

Adelaide’s inconsistencies have been obvious all season.

Their win over the Lions two weeks ago was nice, but it was hardly a convincing four quarter performance, while last week’s rollercoaster ride has to suck some of the confidence out of Don Pyke’s side.

Tip: Back Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.26

Same Game Multi: Port Adelaide 1-39, Chad Wingard 2+ Goals, Ollie Wines Over 26.5 Disposals

It was a miserable week for both of these clubs in front of the sticks, as surprise, surprise, both St. Kilda and the Bulldogs failed to convert on the scoreboard.

The Saints had their chances against GWS, but they just didn’t take them.

St. Kilda finished with 19 shots on goal, but managed to kick 13 behinds in their 25-point loss.

As for the Dogs, well they hardly gave themselves a chance.

The cold and windy Ballarat conditions gave Luke Beveridge’s side a chance against Port, but the Dogs managed just five goals on the day, securing their fourth loss in their last five games.

With both of these sides ranking inside the bottom five in average goals scored and contested possessions, it’s safe to say this game won’t be pretty to watch.

The Saints enter as the favourite ahead of Saturday’s game, which actually holds some value for punters.

St. Kilda are 4-0 as the home favourite over the last 12 months, but more importantly, 5-1 as the favourite against the Dogs.

We’ve seen brief glimpses of what this understrength Bulldogs side is capable of, but it appears the injury toll has really caught up to this struggling side.

St. Kilda’s season has hardly been any better, but stars like Jack Billings and Tim Membrey have still put up some impressive numbers in recent weeks despite the losses.

With games against Essendon, Hawthorn and North remaining, this is a chance for St. Kilda to salvage something from this lost season.

Tip: Back St. Kilda To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: St. Kilda 1-39, Tim Membrey 2+ Goals

A week of a footy can feel like a lifetime, especially if you’re the Sydney Swans.

Following their second straight loss, this time to the Bombers, the Swans find themselves out of the Top 8.

We always feared for Sydney post Dan Hannebery/Jarrad McVeigh injury, and with a big clash against an equally battered and bruised Collingwood side, it’s tough to predict what the future holds for the bloods.

If one thing is for sure, the SCG will be a welcome sight for the Swans.

After last weeks heartache, the home crowd really needs to get behind their team, but as we saw two weeks ago against the Suns, home turf is basically meaningless if Sydney fail to show up.

To make matters worse, Collingwood’s last trip to the SCG resulted in a one-point win last season.

Give the Pies all the credit in the world, they pushed took the reigning premiers to the sword in the first half last week, but Jordan de Goey missing, Collingwood’s lack of firepower up forward cost them in the end.

With de Goey set to miss four to six weeks, just like the Swans, who knows what lies ahead for Collingwood.

The back line is ravished, Adam Treloar won’t be back until finals, and it’s tough to rely on Mason Cox, Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury each and every week.

All in all, that’s great news for the Swans, who also enter this game as the favourite.

If you’re planning a punt on the Swans, look away now, because Sydney’s 3-4 record as the home favourite against the Magpies isn’t pretty.

Still, this is a must-win for the Swans, and if they were to snatch the four points, they could find themselves tied on points with Collingwood back inside the Top 8.

This is a huge opportunity for Sydney, and one their more experience stars need to lap up.

Tip: Back Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $2.32

Same Game Multi: Sydney Swans 1-39, Ben Ronke 3+ Goals, Under 161.5 Points

The Blues got their second win on the board last week against the Suns, and for the first time in a long time, Carlton’s future looked on display.

It was fitting the Blues recorded a victory following Patrick Cripps’ midweek signing, but the happy times could come to a grinding halt this week against the Giants.

After losing Jeremy Cameron to suspension a month ago, GWS are 4-1, and with what should be a very winnable game ahead this weekend, the Giants could potentially move back inside the Top 4.

Although it’s against Carlton, the stakes are still pretty high for GWS.

The remaining three weeks sees games against Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne, so if the Giants wish to cement their spot in the finals, not only would a win against the Blues be nice, but a percentage boosting thumping would be ideal.

GWS got the job done last week against St. Kilda, but that’s about all you can say.

The Giants started out slow from the gate, and actually trailed early in the second quarter.

Fortunately for the Giants, they are 3-1-1 as the away favourites over the last 12 months, and if they can turn up the intensity like they did in the second half last week, they should be no match for the Blues in just about every area of the park.

Tip: Back GWS To Beat The Line (-49.5 Points) @ $1.92

Same Game Multi: GWS 1-39, Over 172.5 Points

With just four weeks left, the wooden spoon race isn’t wrapped up just yet.

Gold Coast’s loss to the Blues saw Carlton close the gap a little, and with the Suns facing the Dees at the G’ this week, things could continue to get interesting towards the bottom of the ladder.

The Suns started out with a bang last week, kicking six goals in the opening half.

Unfortunately, Gold Coast managed just two more goals after the major break, but 14 behinds certainly didn’t help their cause, either.

Melbourne, well let’s just call them the comeback kings.

The Demons looked in trouble down in Adelaide midway through the second quarter, but leaders like Nathan Jones and Jordan Lewis really kicked it up a gear when it counted.

Now heading back to the G’ after a long two week absence, the Demons 4-0 record as the home favourite against the Suns makes them very hard to back against.

With a chance to potentially edge back inside the Top 4 (should results go their way) the Demons won’t let this one slip.

Tip: Back Melbourne 1-39 @ $4.25

Same Game Multi: Melbourne 1-39, Oliver Wines 23.5+ Disposals, Under 174.5 Points

Round 20 winds down with the second of the two interstate derbies, and after Round 6’s eight-point thriller, this one shapes up as a must-watch.

It was the Eagles game to win last week, but West Coast failed to outmuscle North Melbourne down in Hobart. Mason Wood and Majak Daw posed problem for the Eagles all day, and with West Coast failing to push the ball forward inside fifty, the game simply slipped away from them.

In less than convincing fashion, Fremantle’s loss to Hawthorn didn’t look any better.

The Dockers hardly looked prepared, and from the opening bounce, it was clear the Hawks’ midfield pressure was going to cause Freo some problems.

So are we set for another instant classic this week?

With Nat Fyfe missing, it’s hard to see the Dockers putting up much of a fight.

On the same token, though, West Coast look like a much different team without Josh Kennedy, who is set to miss the Derby with a shin injury.

Both of these sides have had up and down seasons, but there’s so much on the line for the Eagles.

Securing their spot inside the top-two is priority number one, but a home final berth would also be nice.

It’s hard to get a read on this game, and although the Eagles have much more talent to play with, Fremantle at home, in front of what should be a large crowd, are still a chance.

Play it safe and ride with the over/unders market.

Tip: Under 164.5 Total Points @ $1.87

Same Game Multi:

2017

We are now in the final month of what has been a simply incredible AFL regular season and the action continues this weekend.

The round begins with a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster between Geelong and Sydney before Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne meet in a crucial clash for both sides on Saturday afternoon.

The big games continue right through until Showdown 43 on Sunday afternoon and our complete 2017 AFL Round 20 tips can be found below!

Sydney’s winning run came to an end at the hands of Hawthorn, but at the time of writing they are still narrow favourites.

The Swans loss at the hands of the Hawks just about ended their chances of finishing in the top four, but this is still a crucial game.

Sydney have won six of their past eight games as away favourites for a clear profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

Geelong returned to winning form with a big victory over Carlton and they are always a tricky side to beat at Simonds Stadium.

They have won their past two games as home underdogs, but the big problem for the Cats is the absence of Patrick Dangerfield.

The absence of one of the competition’s best players will be tough for Geelong to overcome against a team that is as good as Sydney and it is this factor that swings this clash in favour of Sydney.

Back Sydney To Win @ $1.90

Greater Western Sydney ended their winless streak last weekend and they will start this clash with Melbourne as favourites.

The Giants were far from impressive against Fremantle and they will face a tougher test from a fired-up Melbourne outfit.

GWS have now won eight of their past 11 games as home favourites for a loss and they are an extremely poor 3-8 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne’s chances of finishing in the top eight took a hit when they suffered a shock loss at the hands of North Melbourne last weekend and this is a chance to atone for that defeat.

The Demons have won five of their past eight games as away underdogs for a massive profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

Taking on the Giants has proven to be a profitable betting play all season long and Melbourne are a good bet to cover the line with a start.

Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+13.5 Points)

Essendon need to keep winning games to be any chance of playing finals football and they are favourites to do just that this weekend.

The Bombers had their winning run ended at the hands of the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but Carlton obviously represent a drop in quality – despite the fact that they were beaten by the Blues earlier this season.

Essendon have won only two of their past five games as favourites for a clear loss and they are an extremely poor 1-4 against the line in this scenario.

Carlton have now lost six games on the trot and they are showing signs of running on tired legs at this stage of the season.

The Blues have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

There is not as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and Carlton are capable of covering the line in what should be a low-scoring clash.

Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+23.5 Points)

The Western Bulldogs were dominant against Essendon and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

The Bulldogs now have an excellent chance of playing finals football, but they simply can’t afford to drop games like this one.

They have won four of their past seven games as away underdogs for a loss and they are a very poor 1-6 against the line in this scenario.

The Brisbane Lions were simply no match for the West Coast Eagles last weekend and it really doesn’t get any easier for them.

Brisbane have won three of their past ten games as home underdogs for a loss and their record against the line is no better.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

It is Collingwood that will go into this clash with North Melbourne as favourites.

Collingwood played out of their skins against the Adelaide Crows last weekend, but they ran out of legs late and were forced to settle for a draw.

The Magpies have proven to be a very tough team to trust as favourites this season – they have won only five of their past 11 games as the punter’s elect and they are 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

North Melbourne put those tanking rumours to rest with a tough win over Melbourne, but winning back-to-back games has been a tough ask for the Kangaroos this season.

They have won two of their past eight games as home underdogs for a small profit, but they are only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.

These are two teams that are very tough to trust from a betting perspective and this is another game that I am happy to stay out of.

No Bet

This will be only the fifth time that Fremantle have started a game as favourites over the past 12 months.

Fremantle were gallant in defeat against Greater Western Sydney last weekend and a repeat of that sort of effort would make them tough to beat, but consistency has proven to be an issue.

The Dockers have won their three games as home favourites this season and they are 2-1 against the line in this scenario.

Gold Coast produced another uninspiring performance against Richmond last weekend and they have now lost four games on the trot.

The Suns have lost their past seven games as away underdogs and they are an extremely poor 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

There is plenty to like about Fremantle in this clash and they really should be able to record a comfortable win.

Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-16.5 Points)

This is a huge game for the finals chances of both St Kilda and the West Coast Eagles.

It is St Kilda that are narrow favourites for this clash, but there really is nothing between these two sides in betting.

The Saints have lost their past three games and their record against West Coast in recent years has been extremely poor.

St Kilda have won only four of their past six games as home favourites and they are a very poor 1-5 against the line in this scenario.

West Coast returned to winning form with a big victory over the Brisbane Lions and their record away from home has actually been better than has been reported so far this season.

The Eagles have won four of their past five games as away underdogs for a giant profit and backing them away from home in general has been a profitable play.

St Kilda look to have run out of legs and West Coast are a great bet to solidify their place in the top eight.

Back West Coast To Win @ $2

This is another game where there is very little between the two sides in betting.

Richmond have recorded three wins on the trot, but this is easily their biggest challenge in some time and could prove pivotal in their quest for a top four finish.

Winning as favourites has not been a problem for Richmond this season – which is surprising in itself – and they have won seven of their past nine games as favourites, while they are 6-3 against the line as the punter’s elect.

Hawthorn kept alive their slim finals hopes with their upset win over Sydney and they are definitely a team that nobody wants to play in the final stages of the season.

The Hawks have won six of their past 15 games as underdogs for a big profit and they are 9-6 against the line in this scenario.

This is another tricky game from a betting perspective and one that I am willing to let slide through to the keeper.

No Bet

Showdown is always one of the highlights of the AFL season and this game has particular relevance as both are genuine premiership contenders.

It is Adelaide that will go into this clash as favourites following their come-from-behind draw against Collingwood.

The Crows have won 15 of their past 21 games as favourites for a narrow loss, but they are 13-8 against the line as the punter’s elect and they have won the past four editions of Showdown.

Port Adelaide produced some scintillating football in the final stages of their clash against St Kilda to record a much-needed win, but they will need to play much better than that to have any chances of beating the Crows.

The Power have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs, but they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.

It is tough to see Adelaide playing as badly as they did last week and they can return to winning form with a comfortable win over their rivals.

Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-11.5 Points)

2016

Round 20 of the 2016 AFL season begins with what would generally be a Friday Night Blockbuster between the Richmond Tigers and Collingwood Magpies, but in 2016 lacks its usual punch.

The highlight of the weekend actually comes on Saturday night when finals contenders the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne face off at Etihad Stadium.

The round concludes on Sunday afternoon when Fremantle and the West Coast Eagles do battle in an always spiteful Western Derby.

This is one of the oldest rivalries in the history of the AFL, but both sides have had a season to forget in 2016.

Richmond produced one of the most disgraceful performances in the history of their club when they went down to the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and it is no surprise that they are set to go into this clash as clear underdogs.

The lack of effort on display from Richmond last weekend was truly staggering and if they don’t produce an improved performance this weekend than Damian Hardwicke will likely be out of a j0b by Monday.

The Tigers have been particularly poor as underdogs this season and they have won just one of their eight games as outsiders, while they are 2-6 against the line when receiving a start.

Collingwood returned to winning form with a polished performance against the West Coast Eagles, but recording back-to-back victories has proven to be an issue for the Magpies and they are just 3-6 on the back of a win.

The Mapgies have proven to be a tough team to trust as favourites this season and they are just 4-4 as the punter’s elect, while they are 3-5 against the line in this situation.

These are two sides that have not proven profitable across just about every betting metric this season and I am more than happy to stay out of this contest from a betting standpoint.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Sydney Swans returned to their best form with a dominant victory over Fremantle last weekend and they are very short-priced favourites to account for Port Adelaide this weekend.

Sydney have not been flawless at the Sydney Cricket Ground this season and they are 9-3 as home favourites in the past 12 months, but they have been a profitable play against the line in this scenario.

Port Adelaide recorded a very big victory over the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night, but they obviously face a much tougher challenge against the Swans this weekend and stringing together back-to-back wins has proven to be an issue.

The Power continue to be a profitable betting play as away underdogs and they have won three of their past five games in this scenario, while they have an identical record against the line.

There is no doubt that the Swans deserve to start this clash as favourites, but they are definitely under the odds at their current quote and I am keen to back Port Adelaide with a start of 26.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Beat The Line (+26.5 Points)

Melbourne have struggled badly against Hawthorn in recent seasons and they have lost the past 13 games played between the two sides.

Melbourne got the job done against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend to end a two match losing streak, but there still wasn’t a great deal to like about their performance and scoring points has been an issue for the Demons in recent weeks.

The Demons have actually proven to be a profitable betting side as underdogs this season and they are an impressive 9-6 against the line when being given a start.

Hawthorn continued their winning streak with a typically professional effort against Carlton, but they did not do anything to improve their record as a betting proposition this season.

The Hawks have won 20 out of their past 25 games as favourites for a narrow profit, but they are 10-15 against the line in this scenario and they are 7-14 against the line on the back of a win.

Hawthorn should be able to get the job done, but the line of 34.5 points does seem excessive and the Demons are definitely capable of keeping it tight.

Recommended Bet: Back Melbourne To Beat The Line (+34.5 Points)

The Greater Western Sydney Giants are now head and shoulders above the Gold Coast Suns and they are dominant favourites to get the job done against their rivals this weekend.

The Giants were at their brilliant best against Richmond last weekend and they have now won six of their past seven games.

GWS have still struggled away from home somewhat this season and they have won just five of their past eight games as away favourites, while they are 3-5  against the line in this scenario.

The Gold Coast Suns simply don’t win games of football when they are the underdogs and they are now 0-4 against the line as home underdogs this season.

They did not play badly against Melbourne, but they could get completely blown off the park by what is a star-studded Giants midfield and the line of 40.5 points does look within reach.

In saying that, I still find the Giants a tough team to trust from a betting perspective away from Spotless Stadium and this is another game that I am happy to stay out of.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The injury crisis is finally starting to catch up with the Western Bulldogs and they will go into this clash with North Melbourne on the back of a pair of defeats.

The Bulldogs were able to match it at times with Geelong last weekend, but a lack of depth told at the end of every single quarter and they face another tough assignment against North Melbourne this weekend.

The Bulldogs generally win when they are expected to, but they don’t have a great record as underdogs – they have won just three of their past nine games in this situation and they are 4-5 against the line.

North Melbourne made it two victories in a row with a professional performance against St Kilda and they will go into this clash as favourites to make it three wins on the trot.

The Kangaroos are another side that generally get the job done as the punter’s elect and they have won 15 out of their past 17 games as favourites, while they are 11-6 against the line in this scenario.

North Melbourne simply have more depth at this stage of the season and I am confident that they will get the job done again this weekend.

Recommended Bet: North Melbourne To Win @ $1.77

The Adelaide Crows returned to winning form with a big win over Essendon last weekend and they are incredibly short-priced favourites to account for the Brisbane Lions this weekend.

Adelaide continue to thrive in front of their home fans at the Adelaide Oval and they have won six out of their past seven games as home favourites, while they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.

Big lines have not proven to be an issue for the Adelaide Crows, but a line of 76.5 points does seem excessive.

The Brisbane Lions produced another pitiful performance against Port Adelaide last weekend and it is really no surprise that the line for this clash is so large.

Scarily for the Lions, they have generally saved their worst effort for games played away from The Gabba and they have won just one of their past 11 games as away underdogs, while they are 3-8 against the line in this situation.

This is the biggest line that has been set for an AFL game this season and the biggest line since Hawthorn beat the GWS Giants in 2004, so I can’t recommend a bet in this clash although it would not surprise me if the Crows are able to get the job done.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Carlton made a promising start to the 2016 AFL season, but they have gone backwards in the past couple of months and they have not won a game since they beat the Brisbane Lions on June 4.

The Blues have gone close in their past three games against West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn, but they have failed to get the job done when it matters and they are playing like an outfit that has forgotten how to win.

Carlton will go into this game as underdogs, but their record in this position is actually fairly strong – they are 12-8 against the line when being given a start and they have won three of their past eight games at the MCG as underdogs.

St Kilda had their three match winning streak ended by North Melbourne last weekend and they will still go into this clash as clear favourites.

The Saints have actually proven to be a reliable team as favourites this season and they have won all three of their games as the punter’s elect this season, while they are 2-1 against the line.

I think that both teams have found their right price ahead of this clash, but I have found some value in the total points betting market.

Both Carlton and St Kilda have generally been unders teams in the AFL this season and Carlton have had particular trouble scoring at the MCG, which makes under 168.5 points an outstanding bet.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 168.5 Points

Geelong have won ten of their past 11 games against Essendon and it is extremely tough to see that changing this weekend.

The Cats will start this game as extremely short-priced favourites following their three straight victories over Fremantle, Adelaide and Western Bulldogs and anything better than $1.01 would be value.

Geelong have not been the most reliable betting team this season and they have actually been unprofitable as the punter’s elect in the past 12 months, while they are 7-10 against the line when giving away a start.

Essendon were never competitive against Adelaide last weekend and they will go into this clash with rock bottom levels of confidence.

They have now won just two of their past 22 games as underdogs and their record is also a very lackluster 9-13 against the line in this situation.

There is no doubt that Geelong will get the job done, but the line of 68.5 points does seem about right and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Western Derby is always one of the most anticipated games on the AFL calendar and it is a crucial game for two struggling outfits.

West Coast have fallen in a hole somewhat in the second half of the season and they were extremely poor against Collingwood last weekend, but they will still start this game as clear favourites.

This is technically a Fremantle home game, but it is no secret just how strong West Coast are in front of their home fans at Domain Stadium and they have won 11 of their past 12 games at the venue as favourites, while they are 10-3 against the line in this scenario.

Fremantle were soundly beaten by West Coast earlier this season and they have now lost five games on the trot.

The Dockers have proven to be an extremely poor betting proposition as home underdogs – they have won just one of their past six games in this scenario and their record against the line is extremely lacklustre.

West Coast will be very keen to return to their best form in the Western Derby and I am confident that they can account for their rivals in comfortable fashion.

Recommended Bet: West Coast Eagles To Beat The Line (-27.5 Points)