In the words of five-time day and five-time night Hawthorn premiership hero, Dermott Brereton, ‘gather round, gather round, we’re going to Gather Round’.
Every AFL team will make the trek to South Australia for the fourth edition of the AFL’s prime fixture, with four days of matches to be played at Adelaide Oval, Norwood Oval and Barossa Park.
A couple of blockbusters alongside plenty of one-sided affairs, let’s dive in and find some plays for the weekend.
A bit of pressure on both sides after their respective 1-3 starts to the season, but none more so than Blues coach Michael Voss after they once again gave up a strong lead in the second half in their loss to North Melbourne.
Vossy has swung the axe at the selection table with last year’s B&F George Hewitt dropped (after a team-high 22 touches and seven tackles, hmmm) alongside the injured Jacob Weitering and suspended Will Hayward.
While also 1-3 from their first four matches, the Crows have faced a much tougher fixture than Carlton, with losses to Fremantle (2), Geelong (8) and Western Bulldogs (6).
Rory Laird and Mitch Hinge rejoin Matthew Nicks’ side and should play a role in their team’s second win for the year.
Fremantle moved into $8 and onto the third line of betting for the AFL premiership following their inspired two-point win over Adelaide and will be looking to strengthen their chances again against Collingwood on Friday night.
They could go into this game with an unchanged line-up despite Mason cox putting on a show and accumulating 24 disposals and 45 hit-outs in the WAFL.
The Pies will want an improved performance following their 54-point thrashing at the hands of Brisbane.
They will get an immediate bump with the return of Nick Daicos after his late omission last week due to a corked calf – but it’s unlikely that will help them overcome a Fremantle side with nothing but a top four finish on their minds.
The back-to-back reigning premiers have returned to form in a big way over the past two weeks and it could mean nasty things for Clarko and his Kangaroos.
After a slow start to the year again, the Lions hit their straps with strong wins over St Kilda (33) and Collingwood (54) and could strengthen their line-up even further with the return of Harris Andrews (suspensions) and potentially Hugh McCluggage (injury).
North Melbourne will be attempting to announce itself as a legitimate finals contender against the champs after their inspiring late win over Carlton gave them a 3-1 start to the season.
The Lions are predictably extremely short in this one and could bring the Roos back to earth.
How exciting are the Dees under Steven King?
The first-time senior coach has made his mark early in the season with Melbourne’s fearless and fast-paced brand of footy resulting in three wins from their first four matches.
They were incredible against the Gold Coast last weekend in their 20-point win at the ‘G and should have no issues accounting for an Essendon side that is vying for the equal-worst losing run in club history at 18.
The Bombers showed a bit of fight with eight goals to four in the second half against an injury-riddled Bulldogs, but it’s certainly not enough to trust them against the Dees within the realm of five goals.
Clearly one of the matches of the round between two sides who are well and truly in the premiership conversation, the Sydney Swans and Gold Coast Suns will do battle at Norwood Oval.
The Swans are currently $1.80 favourites with Ladbrokes after their 128-point demolition job of West Coast and could strengthen their 23 if Malcolm Rosas Jnr recovers from a tight calf.
Christian Petracca is a chance to return for the Suns as they look to bounce back from their first loss of the season, but his midfield minutes will be a watch now that Matt Rowell is back in the fold.
If Dimma’s anger was anything to go by following the Suns’ loss to the Dees, we’re expecting a response as the underdogs.
Injuries have hit the Kennel this week and the market has responded by pricing the undefeated ladder leaders at $2.30 against the Hawks.
The loss of Tim English (knee) and Ed Richards (knee) will certainly hurt the Dogs, who are still missing Tom Liberatore (hamstring) and Adam Treloar (soreness).
The Hawks are on short break after their 92-91 win over the Cats on Easter Monday but could welcome back both Karl Amon and Cam Mackenzie if they pass fitness tests.
The Western Bulldogs have won each of their last three away matches by a margin of 1-9 points, so whichever way this goes, we’re expecting a thriller.
Two sides who experienced losses in very different ways last weekend, Geelong and West Coast will both look to re-enter the winer’s stall when they clash at Norwood on Sunday.
The Cats, who fell to the Hawks by one point in an Easter Monday classic, are the $1.10 favourites against an Eagles unit that kicked just four goals en route to a 128-point drubbing from the Swans.
Patrick Dangerfield could return from a calf injury for the Cats, while the Eagles look to strengthen their midfield with Deven Robertson (suspension) and possibly Elliot Yeo (adductor).
The line has been set at 45.5, which is a juicy price for those who think the Eagles can bounce back in some way, shape or form.
Another one-sided affair from the AFL fixture gods, GWS will attempt to inflict Richmond’s 10th-straight loss at the Barossa on Sunday.
The week off came at a good time for Adam Kingsley’s men, who are set to regain Jack Buckley, Toby Bedford, Aaron Cadman and Brent Daniels.
Samson Ryan’s immaturity shone with a gut punch leading to his one-week suspension, meaning Richmond’s ruck woes take another significant hit.
While the Tigers have young players who show flashes of brilliance, they need to start doing it for longer periods or teams likes the Giants will run away from them – something we’re expecting this weekend.
Rounding out Gather Round will be the in-form Port Adelaide and well-rested St Kilda on Sunday night.
The Power, who enter this home game as underdogs, destroyed Richmond in Round 4 with 12 goals to six after quarter-time on the back of 30 disposals from Zak Butters and four players kicking multiples.
Todd Marshall just needs to get through training later in the week and he’ll return to their defensive unit.
The Saints enter this one following the bye after trailing off against Brisbane and losing by 33 in Round 3.
The home crowd could prove the difference in this one and Port fans are getting a nice price about their side.
2025
Every team descends on South Australia for the latest incarnation of the AFL’s Gather Round.
Kicking off with the hometown heroes Adelaide against the Cats, there are blockbusters at every turn before the Power close it out for the South Aussies against the rampaging Hawks.
Gather Round kicks off with a Thursday night blockbuster between local hopes Adelaide and the equally in form Geelong.
The Crows, who are currently $1.57 favourite with Ladbrokes, will be looking to bounce back from a one-point defeat to the Suns last weekend and their first loss of the season.
Their Rolls Royce through the midfield, Izak Rankine, has been named to play despite a calf complaint, while Matt Crouch returns after missing the trip to the Goldy on the short turnaround.
Cats supporters will be buoyed by the return of Mark Blicavs this week, who will strengthen an already dominant backline that allowed just 46 points against the Dees.
Geelong has on seven of its last eight against the Crows, making them an enticing prospect for hoops supporters.
Tip: Geelong Cats (+10.5) To Cover The Line @ $1.90
The fixturing gods answered the call again this Gather Round with a Friday night special between the Magpies and Swans.
Collingwood has certainly turned their fortunes around since a Round 1 loss to the Giants, claiming three-straight wins against Port, the Dog and Carlton.
Craig McRae has three gigantic holes to fill, however, with the loss of Jordan De Goey (ankle), Dan Houston (suspension) and Lachie Schulz (hamstring).
As for the Swans, they’ve recaptured their winning form with two wins against the Dockers and Kangaroos.
Logan McDonald is every chance to return after slotting three goals in the VFL, giving the $2.15 underdogs a chance to make it three on the trot.
Tip: Chad Warner To Kick 2+ Goals @ $2.35
If there was one team North Melbourne would prefer to sidestep as they look to bounce back from a poor showing last week, it’s probably the Gold Coast.
The Suns are shining in a big way this season, with a 3-0 record and sitting in third spot on the ladder.
After two wins away from home, Dimma’s men showcased a poise not yet seen from a Suns outfit when they held on to beat the previously undefeated Crows by the barest of margins.
Alastair Clarkson and the Roos have been under the microscope again this week after going down to the Swans 52-117 at Marvel Stadium.
It was clearly the Roos’ most disappointing result of the season, but they’ll likely regain the services of young star George Wardlaw (21 disposals, seven clearances) after he impressed in his return to the VFL.
North Melbourne has lost each of its last 29 matches against teams on a winning streak, so we don’t love their chances in the Barossa Valley.
Tip: Gold Coast To Win 1-39 @ $2.15
Carlton will never receive a better opportunity to kick-start their 2025 campaign than a match-up with the West Coast Eagles at the Adelaide Oval.
Winless through four rounds of footy and with the third-lowest points kicked in the competition, the Blues should welcome back Harry McKay from a three-week stint on the sidelines due to personal reasons.
McKay could be in for a haul as well after the Eagles gave up 20 goals against the Giants, including a season-high nine majors to key forward, Jesse Hogan.
Andrew McQualter made a statement at the selection committee and dropped veteran midfielder Tim Kelly.
While neither side has tasted victory yet this year, it seems humorous to say it should be a one-sided affair in favour of Vossy and the Blues.
Tip: Charlie Curnow To Kick 4+ Goals @ $1.95
Can the Lions make it five wins on the bounce?
A premiership defence never looked as comfortable as the Lions have over their first month of footy, culminating in a soft 28-point win over the Tigers at the ‘G.
Superstar midfielder Lachie Neale returned to form with 42 disposals and seven clearances, as the Lions won every major statistical category on the day.
The Dogs have been impressive in the face of a long list of injuries, but they were unable to overcome the Dockers at home and eventually fell by 16 points.
While Marcus Bontempelli is still at least one week away, Dogs fans have been salivating over the leadership of young forward Sam Darcy, who is one of the best players in the League now.
Tip: Lachie Neale To Have 30+ Disposals @ $1.72
One of the most intriguing match-ups of Gather Round, supporters of both sides will likely switch off from season 2025 if their team can’t get it done this weekend.
The Dees are in a world of hurt both offensively and defensively.
They’ve lost four games on the trot and rank 17th for points kicked and 15th for points against.
They’ve averaged just 58 points over their past three games, including a season-low 46 against the Cats.
The Dons should be fresh from the week off, and ready to continue the form that resulted in a 12-point win over the Power two weeks ago .
Jye Caldwell is an important out for the next four weeks, but the Dons should have enough in the tank to punch down on the embattled Dees.
Tip: Essendon To Win @ $1.85
The Dockers continue to gain momentum after a tough start to the season and will look to capitalise against the Tigers on Sunday.
Having defeated the Dogs and Eagles over the past two weeks, the Dockers have worked their way to 2-2 and into 11th spot on the ladder.
Sean Darcy is a chance to return for the injured Luke Jackson, but the injury-prone big man will be on limited gametime against the physical specimen that is Toby Nankervis.
While they were never a chance against the Lions on Saturday afternoon, the Tigers showed serious promise and kept fighting until the final siren for a 28-point loss.
Having won just one of their last five against the Dockers, it’s hard to see the Tiges slowing down the likes of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw.
Tip: Fremantle (-35.5) To Cover The Line @ $1.90
Another interesting clash pits the in-form Saints against the GWS Giants at Norwood Oval.
It’s been a sensational few weeks for Ross the Boss and his chargers, with consecutive wins against Geelong, Richmond and Port Adelaide – the latter coming at the Adelaide Oval.
Captain Jack Steele is a chance to return from a knee injury, joining a midfield of Jack Sinclair and Jack Macrae that ran the legs of the Power engine room.
As for the Giants, they’ll enter the match as favourites following their 81-point demolition of the Eagles.
Jesse Hogan has launched into third spot on the goal-kicking leaderboard with nine last weekend, while Tom Green has returned from injury with 68 disposals over the past two weeks.
The favourite has won seven of the last eight matches between St Kilda and GWS, but if there was an upset, it’s this week.
Tip: GWS Giants To Win 1-39 @ $2.10
As little as one month ago, who would’ve thought the Power would be $2.85 outsiders in the closing match of Gather Round in Adelaide?
Yeah, not us.
It’s been a disappointing season so far for Kenny and the Power, with just one win from four games.
Granted, this is the Kenny and Ginni grudge match, but even that might not be enough to make up for their lack of form and the loss of Darcy Byrne-Jones to suspension.
The Hawks took an almighty blow during the week with the loss of Will Day for four months after another stress fracture in his foot was discovered.
Day’s importance cannot be understated in the Hawks’ midfield, but a small win comes in the form of James Worpel’s return from injury.
It will be a big test for the depth of the Hawks, but they should still silence the home crowd with a commanding performance.
Tip: Hawthorn To Win Most Quarters @ $1.88
2024
We’re officially a few rounds into season 2024 and we’re already getting any indication of which teams are contenders or pretenders early on.
The round kicks off with the Lions needing to bank the wins to keep their finals hopes strong as they face the Dees at the MCG, whilst the Bombers will look to restore pride on Friday night against the Dogs.
The Crows are still in search of their first win as they travel to Marvel Stadium to face the undefeated Blues.
The Dockers have a great chance to bounce back as they stay in Adelaide to face the Power on Saturday night.
Find out who we’re backing in our 2024 AFL Round 5 Preview.
The Lions have woken from their slumber, convincingly beating the Kangaroos out at Norwood last weekend.
They’re still under pressure with their win-loss stature, and a loss this week sends them right back to square one playing chase-up footy the rest of the year.
The Demons are hot off back-to-back wins against both South Australian sides in Adelaide, and after an Opening Round hiccup, they’re back to similar form that we’ve grown to know over the last three years.
Eric Hipwood got some confidence injected into his form, kicking three goals, although he can’t afford to go missing in this contest or the Lions will struggle to hit the scoreboard.
The Dees ability to share the footy with effectiveness in transition is getting the job done.
Only Christian Petracca had over 20 disposals, but the Dees commitment around the contest to provide pressure and force a turnover is holding them in good stead, keeping the opposition always within touching distance.
Both teams value territory through the corridor where possible, and often this matchup involves a lot of run and carry, handball chains, and short inside 50 entries that place emphasis on the tall leading forwards.
There’s been an average of 28 goals per game the last two times these teams have met at the MCG, so expect a high-scoring and all-to-play-for affair in Brisbane’s case.
The last time these two met, the Lions were 25 points up in the final quarter before the Dees staged one of the best late-game comebacks of the season.
If the Lions have any MCG scarring remaining, their season could end as early as Thursday night.
Tip: Demons by 1-39 @ $2.10
It was reality check territory for the Bombers, who were found wanting at the hands of the Power in Gather Round.
The Dogs were always in the contest against the Cats but never found themselves ahead or asserting any scoreboard dominance throughout the four quarters.
The question for the Bombers is who will lift in their midfield to give them the edge over the likes of Bontempelli, Treloar, and Liberatore who are so dominant in extracting the ball from the stoppage.
The Bombers have found consistency from their forward brigade in Stringer, Gresham, and Langford, but need some more output from the likes of Setterfield, Hobbs, and Caldwell through the middle.
The Bombers tend to play a bruise-free style of footy with the ball, a lot of uncontested chains, but ultimately their skill level hasn’t been up to scratch to execute.
The Dogs struggled to convert inside 50, going at 41% from their entries, an area that needs to be addressed if they’re to place scoreboard pressure on the Bombers, who we’ve seen can absorb pressure and punish.
When the dogs move it quickly inside 50 they’re effective, even at the drop of the ball their smalls know how to get first hands on it.
The Bombers need to impact in the middle and show some dare in their ball movement.
Arguably the pressure is on the Dogs in this one because we’ve seen how quickly their season can turn.
The Dogs best should get it done.
Tip: Bulldogs to cover the line (-14.5) @ $1.90
The Elimination Final rematch makes its way up to the capital in what could be a statement game for the Saints if they’re able to pull it off.
The Giants continued their best start to a season in club history, as they rolled on to a 4-0 start against the Suns in Gather Round.
The Saints had kicked one goal at halftime against Richmond, and Ross the boss switched up the scene tactically, which led them to a big second-half performance to win by seven points.
The Saints haven’t produced the best footy to start the year, but there have been consistent glimpses of it.
The Giants on the other hand have been relentless at times and don’t allow the opposition to get on top for too long.
The clear differential is in the midfield battle. The Saints lack depth compared to the Giants and it’s that extra bit of class that keeps the Giants on top for so long.
Both sides compare well statistically, but it’s the Giants inside 50 entries that stand them above the rest, averaging 16 marks inside 50 per game this year.
The Suns showed that midfield presence on the scoreboard is a must to keep within touch of the Giants, and the reliance on Max King can’t be everything for the Saints with the Giants reliable backline.
The Saints should have learned their lesson from Gather Round and if they are to produce a similar showing against the Giants, this game won’t last long.
Tip: Jake Riccardi Anytime Goal Kicker & Giants to win by 1-39 @ $2.66
The Crows are living a nightmare at the moment, winless after four games, with no real hope on the horizon, is it season done for the Crows already?
At the other end of the table sits the undefeated Blues, who may have got away with one last week, but they capitalised on the Dockers inability to close out the match.
The Crows travel record is non-existent in terms of wins, and it’s hard to back them purely out of their inability to win out of Adelaide.
However, this should still be a great matchup, and the Crows handed it to the Blues last year in Gather Round, winning by 56 points.
The Blues have struggled in the centre stoppages in the first four weeks, which is what the Crows can exploit through their clearance work.
The Blues are doing the little things well when they have the ball in hand, which is a contrast to previous years where they would need a lot more of the ball to generate effective transition.
The Crows continue to struggle with productivity from their forwards, and they’ll find similar struggles against the Blues smaller defensive line-up that loves to run out of defensive 50 on transition.
Can the Crows rely on Mark Keane and Jordon Butts to take down the McKay-Curnow combo, or will it simply be too much?
The Blues have the perfect opportunity to cement their top-four spot ahead of a tough run of games, whilst the Crows could do the unthinkable and completely change the trajectory of their year.
Tip: Carlton to win by 1-24 @ $3.35
This battle could shape as one of the more intriguing watching of the round, as the Hawks are desperate for a win after the efforts they show, and the Suns are looking to break their two-game losing streak.
The Hawks best and worst is severely impacting their ability to win games of football, they seemed out of the contest against the Cats and Pies but found themselves within a goal in each game.
The Suns showed a much more competitive outfit against the Giants, and it was the Giants class that got them over the line.
The Hawks can generate some drive out of their defensive 50, and their use of the corridor is what gives them some flair and edge, although it can be said that there’s less to play for coming from behind.
The Suns look most effective when their midfielders are pushing forward in transition and impacting the scoreboard, which should be an advantage in this midfield battle.
Mac Andrew would’ve taken a lot of confidence out of his career-best performance on the weekend and may get the matchup on either Chol or Hardwick.
Back in the Gold Coast, the Suns should feel comfortable and ready to add another win to the tally.
Tip: Gold Coast to win by 1-39/Under 163.5 @ $6.80
The Power sits in a familiar position in 2024, good enough to be a dominant regular-season outfit that pushes for the top four, but still lacks killer instinct against the top sides.
This will be a pretty interesting test for the Power, who come up against a Dockers outfit that will feel hard done by from last week’s loss and have only averaged 63 points against them per game.
The Dockers certainly don’t play an exciting style of football, it’s defensively sound, but it’s effective and they realistically should’ve kept the Blues to 55 points if it wasn’t for their late blip.
The Power can fire on all cylinders and it will be interesting to see how their fast and flashy midfield group combat Freo’s defensive mechanisms to slow them down and create one-on-one contests around the ground.
The Dockers still have a lot of reliance on their inside 50 efficiency to kick them a winning score, averaging only 47 entries a game, compared to the Power who average 62 per game.
The Power’s centre clearance game should overpower the Dockers, and their fast ball movement through the corridor could cause some issues for the Dockers.
The Power wouldn’t want to drop too many games at the Oval, so whilst this might be closer than expected, they should get the job done.
Tip: Port Adelaide to win by 1-24 @ $3.20
The Cats look like they’ve recaptured some 2022 magic with their start to the year, four from four to start 2024.
The Roos aren’t showing a whole heap of progression in their performances, still winless to start the year.
Defensively the Kangas aren’t there, personnel-wise or system-wise their inability to shut down inside 50 entries is poor.
It starts at the stoppage where their pressure often lets them down, letting a runner go on the outside.
If you add the fact that this game is at GMHBA, then the script is already written with how dominant Geelong is at their home.
The narrow corridor will be exploited by the Cats and it’s hard to see who matches up on any of their athletic tall forwards, let alone the dashing smalls.
The Cats haven’t been tested too much to start the year, but taking a 5-0 start into the year sets them up extremely well.
Tip: Geelong to cover the line (-55.5) @ $1.90
The Eagles finally put up a contest this year, and it looked much more watchable as they took it up to the Swans, and for the majority of the game as well.
The Tigers were on top of the Saints for the first half in their Gather Round clash but weren’t able to sustain their pressure in the second half.
The Tigers system holds up well with the personnel they have and they’re finding reliability in the likes of Liam Baker, Shai Bolton, and Noah Balta.
The Eagles got the best of Harley Reid last weekend and that alone is enough to entice you to come down to watch him live.
The Eagles had a good spread of goalkickers, getting the midfielders involved in transition, which gave them another dimension.
Shai Bolton had the game on a string for the Tigers last weekend, and it’s hard to not see him having an impact in this one.
The Tigers system should hold up in this one, and whilst the Eagles will come in confident on their home turf, they’re still behind the pack.
Tip: Richmond to win by 1-39 @ $2.10
2022
A feast of footy is on offer this Easter long weekend with four games spread across four days.
The traditional Easter Thursday showdown between the Lions and Pies kicks things off at the Gabba with both sides hoping to bounce back from respective defeats last week.
Last season’s defeated grand finalists, the Dogs can also get back on track against wooden spoon favourites North Melbourne on Friday, followed by West Coast looking to build on their first win of the season against the Swans.
The Saints and the Suns could be a sneaky contender for game of the round on Saturday, while all eyes will be on winless Port Adelaide on Sunday when they take on Carlton.
It all wraps up with the traditional Easter Monday clash between the Hawks and Cats at the ‘G, and we’ve got you covered with our best bets for all nine games below!
Last week’s results have set the stage for a massive clash between Brisbane and Collingwood at the Gabba on Thursday night.
The Lions were the better team for three-quarters last week against Geelong before things ultimately went pear-shaped in the final term.
After Dan McStay left his mark, the Cats eventually managed to shut down Brisbane’s tall timber inside 50 – holding them goalless on the way to a 10-point win that wasn’t without some controversy.
The Pies also lost a game they’d probably like to have back against the under-manned Eagles.
Collingwood suffered a similar fate after leading for most of the game as the absence of Jordan deGoey, and some basic misses in front of goal cost them dearly.
Brisbane heads into this game as the firm favourite and there is certainly a lot to like about the Lions based on their 5-2 record on the back of a loss over the last 12 months.
Head coach Chris Fagan admitted that Geelong was the better team last week, a line that should motivate his side in front of a big home crowd.
Collingwood’s forward line is also a serious worry heading in.
DeGoey should be back, but the absence of Jamie Elliott for the next few weeks will be felt immediately.
The Lions, on the other hand, are one of the healthiest teams in the competition, and there’s no question their midfield is far superior to Collingwood’s.
This is a big game for both clubs, but Brisbane should get home comfortably.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-28.5 Points) @ $2.00
The Roos and the Dogs kick off the traditional Good Friday slate with plenty on the line for both clubs.
North gave their fans something to get excited about last week in their loss to the Swans, a strong response to their previous 108-point loss to Brisbane the week prior.
Defender turned full-forward Jack Ziebell starred with a five-goal bag, while head coach David Noble has to be pleased with the way his team opened the game in the first quarter.
As for the Dogs, it’s now or never.
Luke Beveridge’s men were atrocious in front of goal last week kicking 7.19 in their blowout loss to Richmond.
Statistically speaking, the Dogs won just about every other major category, but for a side loaded with talent and experience, it begs the question, is this a mental problem?
It’s tough to know, but a game against North might be just what the doctor ordered.
The Dogs have won three in a row against North coming in, all by 25 points or more.
That said, North owns a perfect 7-0 record as the away underdog at the line over the last 12 months, and they can certainly keep this game respectable if Jy Simpkin, Jaidyn Stephenson, and Rising Star nominee Jason Horne-Francis all leave their mark.
The Dogs should get the job done, but on the back of last week’s honourable loss, North can keep this interesting.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+35.5 Points) @ $2.00
The Eagles picked up their first win of the season last week against Collingwood, but they’ve since been dealt a serious blow with star ruckman Nic Natanui ruled out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury.
It’s more bad news for a West Coast team that has endured a horror start to the season, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time with a hungry Swans outfit in town on Friday night.
Sydney just scraped by to dispose of wooden spoon favourites North Melbourne last week, a performance that has to have John Longmire wanting more from his side.
The Swans have some injury concerns themselves with superstar forward Buddy Franklin set for a stint on the sideline after fracturing his finger, but unlike their opponents this week, Sydney has tremendous depth to call upon.
The Bloods throttled West Coast 118-26 when they met last July – their fourth win from their last five games against the Eagles – and if they can dominate the ruck battle with Naitanui missing, they should go a long way to winning big again.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $2.00
The last five games between the Saints and the Suns have been decided by nine points or less, and based on what we’ve seen from these two sides so far, it wouldn’t be surprising if we’re treated to another classic.
The Saints ran out comfortable 69-point winners last week in their ambush over Hawthorn, a game that was basically played inside St Kilda’s forward half as Ben King, Tim Membrey, Brad Hill, and Jade Gresham all dominated with four goals each.
The Suns also enjoyed a comfortable day at Metricon in their surprising 30-point win over undefeated Carlton.
Stuart Dew’s side put their poor Round 3 performance against GWS behind them in a convincing display that was again highlighted by Mabior Chol, Noah Anderson, and Touk Miller.
The jury is still out on these two sides, but based on recent history, it’s hard to reason with the Saints being favoured by over three goals.
St Kilda has been outstanding in the fourth quarter so far this season, but they’ve had to rely on some mammoth performances from King to get the job done.
By the same token, you never know what you’re getting with the Suns week to week, especially on the road, or this early in the season.
The Saints have held on to win each of their last four encounters against Gold Coast, but there’s been a lot to like about the Suns’ defensive efforts over the first month.
Dew’s side ranks fourth in fewest goals allowed, while they’ve also covered in three of their four games so far.
If Chol can get on the end of a few, this might turn into the game of the round.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+19.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Tigers are back in the hunt for a top-eight spot this week after disposing of the inaccurate Bulldogs last Saturday night.
Shai Bolton led the way with a spectacular performance that included a ‘Goal of the Year’ contender, while Tom Lynch also enjoyed a four-goal fill-up in Richmond’s 38-point win.
The Crows, on the other hand, suffered an honourable loss to Essendon in the final few minutes – their third defeat of the young season.
Adelaide has now lost two games so far this year by no more than four points, an encouraging sign for Matthew Nicks’ side as they continue their rebuild.
Looking ahead, the Tigers are rightful favourites heading into this clash, but this is still a big test for them playing on the road.
The Crows have proven themselves to be a handful this year, and they’ve only grown in confidence with Tex Walker back in the side and last week’s Rising Star nominee, Josh Rachele, doing freakish things alongside.
Adelaide has covered in four of its last seven home games as the underdog at the line, although their backline is a genuine query after giving up huge goal spurts to Essendon last week.
The Tigers should win this game, but for as impressive as their win was last week against the Dogs was, it’s hard to ignore the fact they lost almost every major statistical category outside of goal-kicking.
There’s a real case to be made for the Crows to cover, but overall, Richmond probably sneaks home in a close one.
Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.25
There’s no doubt the Dees are a class above the rest of the competition right now, and as the line suggests, they’ll have another opportunity to make a bold statement on Saturday night at home against the Giants.
Simon Goodwin’s side made short work of Port Adelaide last week, holding the Power goal-less in the first half on their way to a comfortable 32-point win.
GWS, meanwhile, would probably like to have last week’s game against Fremantle back.
The Giants trailed by only two points at three-quarter time but struggled to find the sticks in a goal-less final term.
Superstar forward Toby Greene is still a week away from returning from suspension, meaning the Giants will have to be at their very best against a Melbourne outfit that has basically been cruising in fourth gear.
This is also somewhat of a revenge game for the Dees after losing to GWS last July.
Perhaps the one knock on Melbourne so far has been that they haven’t really put any of their opponents away by massive margins, but with home-field advantage and a few key players set to return from injury, this might be the game where the Dees really flex their muscle.
Tip: Back the Demons to Cover the Line (-30.5 Points) @ $1.90
We’re about to learn plenty about Port and Carlton on Sunday afternoon.
The previously undefeated Blues were far from their best last week against the Gold Coast, and the writing was on the wall early as they struggled to win the clearances whilst most of the game was played in the Suns’ forward half.
Making matters worse, superstar midfielder and previous Brownlow favourite Patrick Cripps has also suffered a hamstring injury that will see him miss the next month of footy.
The blow isn’t the end of the world for Carlton, but it remains to be seen how the Blues go about their business without their skipper on the field.
As for Port, this is basically it.
The Power are already facing an uphill battle after starting 0-4, while Ollie Wines’ recent health scare couldn’t have come at a worse time on the back of last week’s goalless first half against Melbourne.
On the plus side, the Power destroyed Carlton 140-45 when they played last August – their sixth straight win over the Blues dating back to 2017.
Also working in Port’s favour (maybe) is the fact this game is being played in Melbourne.
The Power have played to a 3-1 record as the away dog over the last 12 months, and it might help take some of the pressure off getting away from Adelaide for a week.
Tip: Back Port Adelaide to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90
Don’t look now, but the Dockers are sitting top four.
The absence of Nat Fyfe looked to doom Fremantle a fortnight ago, but the response from Justin Longmuir’s side has been nothing short of remarkable.
Freo has now played to a 3-1 record without their skipper so far, a record they’ll look to add to against the Bombers on Sunday at Marvel.
Essendon ran out four-point winners last week in a thriller against the Crows, but nobody is about to declare them finals bound after kicking 13 behinds.
Backing the Dockers in Melbourne is always risky, but this is a game they should be winning if they can build on last week’s massive fourth quarter against GWS.
Freo outscored the Giants 36-3 in the final term, while their pressure rating was also through the roof.
The Bombers have actually won their last five meetings against the Dockers, but after just scraping by against a young Crows outfit, it’s a little surprising to find them as favourites.
With a chance to really cement their spot in the eight and also gain a few more admirers on the way, the Dockers at the current quote is too good to pass up.
Tip: Back the Dockers to Win @ $2.00
The Easter Monday showdown is always a special occasion on the footy calendar.
Plenty had question marks around Geelong’s age and whether they’d lost a step heading into the season, and while there were a few controversial moments in last week’s win over the Lions, it was encouraging to see the Cats turn in a real team performance that included five goals from Tom Hawkins and 29 disposals from Issac Smith.
The Hawks, meanwhile, played their worst game of the season against the Saints – a discouraging sign for new coach Sam Mitchell on the back of the previous week’s one-point defeat to Carlton.
Hawthorn was basically beaten at its own game from the get-go, while sloppy turnovers and errant goal-kicking also played a large part.
All of that is to be expected from one of the league’s youngest teams, and Mitchell is now charged with mounting a response, and a new game plan on one of the biggest stages of the year.
The Cats have won their last two games against the Hawks, and if the stats are anything to go by, they should be adding to that record.
Nobody has been more efficient inside 50 than Geelong so far, which doesn’t really bode well for a young Hawthorn outfit that just gave up four goals to four respective players against the Saints.
Hawthorn was also stung on the rebound last week, and we could see a similar story unfold given Geelong’s talent through the midfield.
As we’ve said, these two teams tend to put on a show, but the Cats should be too strong in the end.
Tip: Back Geelong 1-39 @ $2.02
2021
Round 5 gets off to a fast start this week with not one, but two primetime blockbusters.
Fresh from back-to-back losses to Sydney and Port, the Tigers look to maintain their spot in the eight on Thursday night when they head to Marvel to take on the Saints.
A rematch of the 2018 Grand Final kicks off on Friday between West Coast and Collingwood from Perth as both sides look to bounce-back from disappointing losses last weekend.
As if that wasn’t enough, we’ve also got the first ‘Battle of the Bridge’ game on Saturday between the Swans and Giants, as well as an intriguing contest on Sunday between the Crows and Dockers.
For complete analysis on every game, check out our 2021 AFL Round 5 Preview here!
Richmond’s two-game losing streak has added plenty of intrigue to what was already a game plenty of fans had circled on their calendars.
After a sluggish effort two weeks ago against the Swans, the Tigers were on the receiving end of a two-point loss last week against Port Adelaide that leaves them sitting just inside the top eight.
St Kilda, meanwhile, snapped their own two-game losing streak last week with a rousing win over West Coast.
The Saints looked dead and buried at half-time trailing by 28 points, but momentum swung in their favour in the fourth time as the Saints kicked five unanswered goals to pinch a victory.
While there’s plenty to play for, recent history tells us that this game could get out of hand in a hurry.
Richmond has won four of its last five games over St Kilda by double digits, the most being the 2020 Semi Final at Metricon.
The Tigers’ biggest problem over the last two weeks has been effort and dealing with pressure – two areas the Saints have also had their troubles with.
St Kilda has allowed the second-most goals in the league so far this year, and outside of a spirited final term last week, their basic skills have also been horrible.
Against a back line that has been questionable at best, this looks a nice game for Tom Lynch to kick a bag and for the Tigers to get back on track.
Tip: Back Richmond 1-39 @ $2.15
West Coast returns home to Perth on Friday night for a pivotal clash against Collingwood.
Only three weeks after losing a heartbreaker to the Dogs, the Eagles managed to blow a 28-point half-time lead against the Saints after failing to kick a goal in the final term.
Things weren’t quite as close for the Pies in their losing effort against GWS.
Collingwood was on the back foot from the get-go as Toby Greene and Jeremy Finlayson kicked the Giants to a cruisy 30-point win.
West Coast can rest a little easier knowing they remain in the eight, but they won’t hold particularly fond memories of this Collingwood outfit after losing by a single point in last year’s Elimination Final.
That said, the Pies aren’t as sharp as they were when these two sides last met.
Collingwood has struggled to find goals all year, while the Eagles have shown no trouble scoring points.
Home field advantage is also a huge plus for West Coast with Collingwood leaving Melbourne for the first time this year.
Overall, this should be a comfortable Eagles win, but based on the fact four of the last five games between these two sides have been decided by 1-39 points, the margin looks a safe play.
Tip: Back West Coast 1-39 @ $2.20
The undefeated Dogs are out for a clean sweep over both Queensland sides on Saturday.
Luke Beveridge’s side led at the end of all four quarters against the Lions last week, and with the Suns nursing a growing list of injuries, it appears a similar outcome is likely to unfold.
To be fair, the Suns put up a good fight in their 11-point loss to Carlton, but it was painfully clear in the final term that the Gold Coast didn’t have the legs to go on and win.
That in itself spells plenty of trouble, not to mention the fact the Dogs rank top five in goals, inside 50s and disposals this year.
The Suns recorded a very famous win over the Dogs in Melbourne two years ago, but it’s worth noting the Bulldogs have won nine of their 12 meetings against the Suns dating back to 2011.
Throw in the fact the Dogs have allowed the fewest goals in the league so far, and it becomes increasingly difficult to fault the favourites.
Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (-35.5 Points) @ $1.90
The first ‘Battle of the Bridge’ game kicks off on Saturday afternoon and it promises to be a good one.
Not surprisingly, the undefeated Swans have been installed as the favourites, but they’ll need to improve sharply on last week’s efforts against the Bombers if they wish to knock off a Giants side riding the highs of last week’s win over Collingwood.
GWS has been tough to watch so far this year, but as they showed last week, they are a dangerous outfit still capable of kicking goals in a hurry.
Fortunately, the Swans are arguably one of the toughest teams to score against in the league – as the Tigers found out the hard way two weeks ago.
On the flip side, Toby Greene and Jeremy Finlayson combined for nine goals last week for the Giants, but they’d need to replicate that performance to stand any chance against a Sydney team that leads the league in goals scored.
With a superb 3-1 record at the line this year and a chance to potentially claim the top spot on the ladder if results go their way, back the Swans to get the job done.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (-15.5 Points) @ $1.90
It might still be early, but this feels like a ‘now or never’ type game for both clubs on Saturday night.
After winning a thriller two weeks ago over Collingwood, the Lions were a touch disappointing last week in their 19-point loss to the Bulldogs in Ballarat.
As for Essendon, the half-strength Bombers somehow managed to put a scare into the undefeated Swans despite falling three-points short in another classic.
With a rivalry that dates all the way back to the early 2000s, there is certainly no love lost between these two sides, but this does look a very winnable game for the Lions if they hold any hopes of still making the finals.
So far Brisbane has run into four very good teams in the Swans, Cats, Pies and Bulldogs, while they should also be up and about for their long-awaited return back to the Gabba.
Also working in the Lions’ favour is the fact they absolutely throttled Essendon by 53 points when they met last year.
With a handful of names key contributors like Daniel McStay and Callum Ah Chee a chance at returning to the side, the Lions look a safe bet to add to their strong 8-2 record at home over the last 12 months.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (-25.5 Points) @ $1.90
Port are looking to make it five wins on the trot against Carlton when the two sides meet at the MCG on Saturday night.
After a disappointing performance two weeks ago against West Coast, the Power responded enormously last week in a nail-biter against Richmond in Adelaide.
Carlton picked up its second win of the season in a slog-fest against the Suns on the Gold Coast – a result that has left the Blues sitting seventh on the ladder heading into Round 5.
Unfortunately, things are only about to get harder for coach David Teague with Jack Silvagni joining the likes of Mitch McGovern and Charlie Curnow on the sidelines.
The Power have big injury concerns of their own with Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters set to undergo surgery later this week. The absence of both playmakers will no doubt impact Port’s ability to create scoring chances moving forward.
While Port holds the wood over Carlton, it is worth noting that the last two games between these sides have been relatively close.
The Power defeated Carlton by 16 points back in 2019, before the pair played out a three-point thriller last July at the Gabba.
With that in mind, it shouldn’t surprise to learn the Blues hold a perfect 4-0 record as the home underdog against Port, a trend that is well worth backing with a few key injuries on both sides.
Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.90
The winner of Sunday’s game between Adelaide and Fremantle could go a long way to determining the makeup of the top eight.
A third straight win for the Crows could potentially see them move into the top four if results go their way, while the Dockers could also venture into top eight territory with an upset on the road.
These two sides have traded blows over the last few years, with the most recent instalment resulting in a 20-point win to the Dockers last July on the Gold Coast.
Obviously a lot has changed since then though, particularly as far as the Crows are concerned.
Adelaide, led by Coleman Medal favourite Tex Walker, have been a goal-scoring machine so far this season – a worrying sign for a Dockers team that currently ranks second-last in goals scored this year.
On the flip side, Fremantle’s typically sting defence could keep this game close, but after nearly blowing a healthy lead against the Hawks last week, it’s tough to feel overly confident in them playing away from home.
Freo hasn’t won against the Crows in Adelaide since 2015, and after last week’s goal-kicking woes in front of the sticks, it’s tough to see that drought ending this weekend.
Tip: Back the Crows 1-39 @ $2.20
The Dees are looking to open the season 5-0 for the first time since 1994 when they take to the ‘G to face the Hawks.
Melbourne proved their fairytale start was no fluke last week with a convincing 25-point win over Geelong, a performance Simon Goodwin’s side can certainly build on now as they look to add to Hawthorn’s misery.
To their credit, the Hawks did well to fight back from a 34-point deficit at quarter time last week against Fremantle, but the margin still proved too great to overcome as some basic skill errors and inaccuracy in front of goal cost the Hawks a chance at their second win.
There have been some really encouraging signs about Hawthorn’s young outfit at times, but recent history suggests Hawks supporters are in for another rough week.
Melbourne has won three straight over Hawthorn dating back to 2018, with the most recent encounter resulting in a 43-point blowout last July.
If the Hawks start slow like they have all season, there’s no doubt the Dees will make them pay nice and early.
Defensively, Melbourne has been one of the toughest teams to score against, while they’ve also been one of the best tackling sides in the competition.
The Hawks have played to an outstanding 3-1 record at the line this year, so there is a bit to like about Hawthorn keeping this close.
Overall though, the Dees should pull out the win.
Tip: Back the Hawks to Cover the Line (+23.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Cats have drawn the perfect opponent to bounce-back from last week’s disappointment against Melbourne.
Still winless, North’s season went from bad to worse last week with a 41-point loss to the Crows, and it’s safe to say things aren’t about to get any easier with a trip to Geelong ahead on Sunday.
The Roos pulled off an upset at The Cattery back in 2015, but Geelong has typically had their way against North at home for the better part of the last two decades.
To make matters worse, the Roos’ injury list continues to grow longer with Luke McDonald and Jared Polec set to miss an extended period of time on the sidelines.
The Cats and their slow game plan have left a lot to be desired this year, but there is some positive news on the horizon with Jeremy Cameron set to make his debut either this week or next.
Either way, this is basically a contest between one of the top attacking sides in the competition and a North outfit that leads the league in goals allowed by quite a wide margin.
The line is one of the biggest we’ve seen in quite some time, but don’t overcomplicate it.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-56.5 Points) @ $1.90
2020
Round 5 gets underway on Thursday night with an all-important battle between Carlton and St Kilda from Marvel.
Following a week of uncertainty regarding the fixture, we finally seem to have some clarity with West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne and the Swans all participating in a swap.
For punters, we’re once again offering $2.00 lines on all nine games, and if you’re looking for some tips to help you out, be sure to read our entire 2020 AFL Round 5 Preview below.
Two in-form teams meet on Thursday night in a game that was originally scheduled for Saturday at the MCG.
Carlton can make it three in a row after hanging on by their fingernails last week against the Bombers, while the Saints are still riding the highs of a blowout win over the reigning premiers that has left them sitting sixth.
A win for the Blues would vault them inside the eight for the first time since 2013 and they should have every chance if Levi Casboult and Sam Docherty put on a similar performance to last week.
St Kilda, meanwhile, could move as high as fifth on the ladder with their second straight win.
The Blues were winners over the Saints in Round 22 last year – snapping a previous three-year losing streak against St Kilda.
Carlton has also been a strong betting play as the “home” underdog against St Kilda covering in four of their five games, so considering there isn’t much between these two sides both on paper and in the market, taking the Blues to keep it close seems a worthwhile play.
Tip: Back Carlton to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $2.00
Fifth-place Collingwood and eighth-place Essendon get together on Friday night in a postponed, crowdless edition of the ANZAC Day match.
The Bombers returned well-rested last week against the Blues, but they struggled to mount any kind of offence against Carlton in a nail-biting one-point loss.
Collingwood’s Round 4 match also came down to the wire against the Giants in Sydney. The Pies put up a brave fight, but ultimately suffered a repeat of last year’s Prelim loss in the final two minutes.
If you’ve been keeping count, you’ll know the Pies have won four straight over the Bombers dating back to 2018 and they’ve also been relatively consistent playing to a 3-2 record on the back of a previous loss.
Returning home to the ‘G with a relatively full-strength side, it’s hard to back against Collingwood here.
Tip: Back Collingwood 1-39 @ $1.92
West Coast are looking to put last week’s blowout loss against Port Adelaide behind them as they face another tough test at Metricon on Saturday against the Swans.
Footy over in Queensland has been tough for both WA sides so far, but even after three straight losses, the Eagles still find themselves as the short-priced favourites against a wounded Sydney outfit.
A fortnight ago the Swans were riding the highs of a big win over North Melbourne, but last week’s loss to the Bulldogs hurt in more ways than one.
After being blown off the park at the SCG, the Swans received further bad news not long after with key ruckman Sam Naismith suffering a season-ending ACL injury.
On the injury front for West Coast, the Eagles are currently sweating the status of Jeremy McGovern, who may or may not be a late inclusion following with an ankle injury.
Despite the injury woes, the Swans should still feel confident in their chances having won their last three games against West Coast. As we saw a fortnight ago, Sydney have also been a real pal to punter’s as the away underdog over the last 12 months, covering in six of their seven games.
With the Eagles midfield in disarray and Josh Kennedy far from his usual best, there’s lots to like about the Swans at the line here.
Tip: Back the Swans to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $2.00
The second-place Suns have been the surprise story since the season restarted, but the fairytale is about to take a more serious turn this week as Stuart Dew’s men travel to Melbourne for the first time.
As we’ve seen several times in the past, Geelong survived a real scare last week against the Demons after their big names went missing in the fourth quarter.
The Cats held on for a narrow three-point win in the end, but they’ll need to ensure a more thorough performance this week against a Suns side starting to believe their own hype.
Geelong’s early injury prognosis paints an interesting picture going forward. Tom Stewart suffered a broken collarbone last week, while Tom Atkins looks in doubt following a rib injury.
As for the Suns, their clean bill of health has been just as remarkable as their overall record. Gold Coast again comes into this game with little to no changes, so there’s certainly no excuses, at least on paper, for the Suns not to perform.
Unfortunately, the Suns are yet to win in Geelong since they entered the competition, and while there’s lots to love about Matt Rowell and the overall story of this team, there’s no denying this is an enormous test.
Tip: Back Geelong to Cover the Line (-18.5 Points) @ $2.00
There are three top eight games on the card this weekend, but don’t be surprised if this blue collar battle turns out to be the game of the round.
The in-form Bulldogs are looking to make it three on the trot on Saturday after dismantling GWS and the Swans in back-to-back weeks.
Meanwhile, North are facing the exact opposite as they look to snap a two-game losing streak following narrow defeats to Sydney and Hawthorn.
A win here for either team could potentially vault them inside the eight if results go their way, and as the market suggests, it’s a bit of a coin flip.
The Dogs have rest on their side after playing the Swans last Thursday night, but that mightn’t mean much with the growing body count now including Aaron Naughton, who looks set to miss 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury.
North are also sweating on Jack Ziebell, who pulled up with a hamstring issue last week against the Hawks. They’ll also be hoping for a return to form from Ben Brown, who struggled against Ben McEvoy last Sunday.
The good news for the Roos though is the fact they’ve won two of their last three against the Dogs, and if they can somehow find the same intensity they brought in the dying stages against the Hawks, they should at least keep this close.
Tip: Back North Melbourne to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $2.00
Bit of a must-watch game this.
These two sides were fierce rivals in the early 2000s, and it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see a bit of argy-bargy between the two on Saturday considering what’s at stake.
Port remains undefeated atop the ladder as they continue to shift through the gears. Charlie Dixon’s six-goal performance last week against West Coast has left him sitting first in the Coleman Medal race, while down the other end, Charlie Cameron continues to put on a show week in and week out for the Lions.
As the market suggests, there’s absolutely nothing separating these two sides.
The Power have loved every minute of their time up in Queensland, while just like last year, the Lions look almost unbeatable at the Gabba.
Injury wise, the Lions are hoping Stefan Martin can prove his fitness. The same can’t be said for Dayne Zorko however, who looks likely to miss at least another fortnight after re-aggravating his calf strain last week.
Xavier Duursma is also a couple of weeks away for Port, while the big inclusion could be Ryan Burton, who’s missed the last two games due to a knee injury.
It’s likely the odds swing back and forth all week, but it’s worth noting these two clubs both rank top five in tackles.
So far the focus has been on names like Dixon, Cameron and Lachie Neale, but both teams have easily been two of the most consistent defensive outfits in the comp.
Tip: Under 126.5 Total Points @ $1.87
One of these two cellar dwellers will earn their first of the season on Sunday.
Despite a competitive third term against the Lions last week, Adelaide still remains winless at the bottom of the ladder with no real signs of encouragement in sight.
Likewise, the Dockers are also looking to earn their first points of the season after falling short to the Suns last week at Metricon. Freo actually led early in the second quarter, but an injury to Nat Fyfe made things tough from then on.
The Crows are playing “wait and see” with Rory Sloane following last weeks ankle injury, while Fyfe potentially miss the next two rounds with a hamstring.
Fremantle have put up a fight at times this year but the loss of their captain makes them very tricky to back.
The Crows are of equal concern given their complete lack of structure on the field, so if you really want to bet on this game, the Under looks to be the only worthwhile play.
Tip: Under 123.5 Total Points @ $1.87
The Demons appear the perfect prey for the Tigers this week as they hope to earn their first win since the restart.
After being torn apart by the Hawks and Saints in back-to-back weeks, punters are obviously still willing to forgive the reigning premiers as they remain short-priced favourites following the fixture change.
From a betting perspective, the Demons are always tough to trust, but there was plenty of merit in their fourth quarter performance last week against Geelong. Unfortunately, the Tigers have had the wood over the Dees recently winning their last four meetings, so it’s tough to back Melbourne on this occasion.
Richmond expects Josh Caddy to play despite suffering a minor injury last week, while Melbourne remain unchanged at time of publish.
With the Tigers at such a short price, you will have to get creative in the market if you wish to find some value.
It just so happens that the Total has gone Under in each of the last four games between these two clubs, so a Same Game Multi looks to be the play.
Tip: Back Richmond to Win & Under 122.5 Total Points @ $2.99
The fourth-place Hawks can make it three in a row on Sunday, but they’ll need to avoid a repeat of last weeks fourth quarter if they wish to dispose of the Giants.
Hawthorn resembled their old 2015 selves against North Melbourne by bringing plenty of tackling, intensity and pressure around the ball. For whatever reason though, the Hawks’ defence completely went to sleep in the final five minutes, setting up a nail-biting conclusion to what should have been a blowout win.
The Giants were also forced to sweat it in the final two minutes against Collingwood, a performance that should do Leon Cameron’s side wonders after a sloppy start to the season.
Injury wise, the Giants did suffer a blow with Zac Williams set to miss a month with a hamstring injury, while we still await the fate of Phil Davis, who is suffering from the same problem.
The Hawks are also in rough shape after Luke Breust fractured his jaw last week. He’ll miss the next few weeks, opening the door for Mitch Lewis or Paul Puopolo to return.
Hawthorn have won two of their last three against GWS, including last years famous blowout win in freezing conditions at GIANTS Stadium.
If you look past last weeks final five minutes, the Hawks were flawless, so it’s fair to say the market isn’t giving them enough respect.
With an equally impressive 2-0 record as the away underdog against GWS, take the +7.5 about the Hawks.
Tip: Back Hawthorn to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $2.00
2019
The AFL is choc-full of blockbusters this Easter long weekend, and with the ladder starting to take shape, now is as good a time as any to start sorting through the contenders and pretenders.
It all kicks off with two potential finals foes as the Lions host the Pies on Thursday night, while Round 5 is bookended with the annual Easter Monday Hawthorn v Geelong clash on Monday afternoon.
We’ve sorted through all nine games, and our complete 2019 AFL Round 5 Preview can be found below.
The Gabba is reportedly sold out for this Thursday night thriller, and after last weekend’s no-show against the Bombers, the Lions have plenty of expectations to live up to.
Brisbane failed to get going against Essendon at the MCG. The Dons booted seven goals to Brisbane’s two in the opening quarter, marching on to a 47-point victory after dominating in just about every statistical category.
Collingwood got back to winning ways last week with a narrow win over the Bulldogs, although it was hardly the most convincing victory of the Pies’ young season. Wayward kicking cost Nathan Buckley’s side on the scoreboard, but the coach has to be happy with how his list fought back from a five-point third quarter deficit to boot give goals in the final term.
Avid footy fans will remember last year’s Round 7 thriller from The Gabba between these two sides. Collingwood stole a late 121-114 win thanks to a sneaky goal from Jordan de Goey, but the Lions certainly weren’t disgraced as Dayne Zorko and Lewis Taylor booted four goals each.
It’ll take a similar kind of effort for the Lions to not only overpower the Pies, but also their traveling fans. Collingwood supporters travel well to The Gabba and given this marks Dayne Breams’ first match against the Lions since his shock trade request late last year, expect a finals like atmosphere.
As far as betting is concerned, Brisbane do look a little over the odds at this price. The Lions haven’t defeated Collingwood since 2014, but they are 5-3 as the home underdog at the line.
Brisbane can win this game if they get back to the basics. Control the clearances and take chances through the midfield. Considering Collingwood have looked a little underdone with a loss to the Eagles and a not so convincing win over the Bulldogs last week, the Gabbatoir should play an important role in a Brisbane upset.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+9.5 Points) @ $1.90
It’s hardly the most exciting edition of Good Friday footy, but this could be another season builder for the Bombers as they look to make it three-straight.
Essendon won convincingly last week over the Lions, largely due to the efforts of the forward line. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti came through with a career-best seven goals, reminding the entire league that the Bombers are indeed one of the deadliest sides inside fifty.
North Melbourne were less impressive in their first win of the season, hanging for a 12-point win over the Crows at home. It was a much-needed victory for a side that’s fought hard all season, but with nine goals to 17 behinds, North Melbourne need to tidy up in front of goal.
The Roos have won three of their last five over the Bombers, however Essendon have won the last two meetings convincingly. In both of those games the Total went well over the 170-points on offer, and with North ranking second in uncontested possession and the Bombers ranking fifth in clearances, we could be in for a high-scoring thriller.
Tip: Back Over 174.5 Total Points @ $1.85
Port heads West for Easter as they take on the Eagles in Perth. The long plane ride will give Ken Hinkley’s side plenty of time to reflect on last week’s blown three-goal lead to the Tigers, one that eventually resulted in a seven-point loss.
West Coast also have some thinking to do after a scrappy 13-point win over the rival Dockers. West Coast were heavily favoured to win by plenty, but somehow a Nat Fyfe-less Fremantle side managed to make things interesting with an 11 goal second half.
Again, this isn’t the most exciting match up on paper, but it’s still an important one for all parties. A win for West Coast and a GWS and Geelong loss could see the Eagles on top of the ladder, while a Port win should be enough to vault them back inside the eight.
The last time these sides met the Eagles held on for a narrow four-point win at Adelaide Oval. The Power haven’t defeated the Eagles out west since 2017, but as already know, this is a Port side that ranks Top 5 in marks inside fifty, clearances and uncontested possession.
Unfortunately for Port, the chance of an upset is slim when you consider how poorly they performed at The Gabba a fortnight ago. The Power were dreadful in front of goal, and when the pressure mounted, the backline folded.
West Coast aren’t doing anything special right now, but with a five-game winning streak on the line at Optus Stadium, the Eagles’ should be able to exploit the Power’s wobbly fourth quarter defence. Back Adam Simpson’s side in a close one.
Tip: Back West Coast 1-39 @ $2.06
It’s technically a home game for the Giants this week as Canberra plays host to the Dockers on Saturday afternoon. The Giants are heavily favoured by -37.5 points, largely due to their nail-biting win over the Cats in Geelong last week.
Leon Cameron’s side are perhaps the most multi-dimensional team in the competition. Even when the Giants fail to kick straight – just like they did last week against the Cats – GWS can beat you defensively by bringing some pressure through the midfield and dominating the contested possession.
The Dockers found that out the hard way last year losing by 31-points to the Giants at home. GWS have won the last four meetings, and although they’ll carry on without co-captain Callan Ward, you have to fancy the side that ranks third in average goals per-game.
Tip: Back the Giants 40+ @ $2.10
The Dees are on the board following their 22-point win over the Swans last week, but the victory still wasn’t enough to lift Melbourne from second last on the ladder.
St. Kilda have a lot more to celebrate after their come from behind win over Hawthorn last week. The Saints trailed by two goals at three quarter time, only to control the final term to boot two unanswered goals in the five-point win.
Both victories now set up what could be a scrappy Saturday afternoon twilight affair. Melbourne have won three of the last five meetings, but St. Kilda will take full confidence 5 knowing they held on for a narrow two-point victory against the Dees last July.
Despite last week’s win, the jury is still out on Melbourne. The Dees did a great job of winning the clearances last week in Sydney, but they were dominated through the midfield losing the disposal count by a wide margin.
St. Kilda are also a little unconvincing. They rank 13th in average goals per-game and 10th in average inside 50’s, but the most impressive part of the Saints so far has been tackling – an area they lead the league in, one spot ahead of the Demons.
With that in mind, it’s probably best to stick with the Total this week. Considering both sides struggle for consistency in front of goal, play on the Under.
Tip: Under 167.5 Total Points @ $1.85
The understrength Tigers return home with a big win under their belt after defeating Port by seven-points last week.
Richmond will likely enter Saturday’s game without their big four for the second week in a row, which is good news for the Swans as they look to rebound from a demoralizing loss to the Demons at home.
Sydney’s porous back line fell apart in the final term against Melbourne allowing two unanswered goals in the final 10 minutes. The Tigers, meanwhile, stood tall with the chips down, particularly Kamdyn McIntosh and Dylan Grimes.
For the first time in in three weeks the Tigers find themselves as the favourite. The Tigers are 9-1 in this scenario at home over the last 12 months and considering the obvious lack of confidence and belief in the Swans backline, take the Tigers to win comfortably.
Tip: Back the Tigers 1-39 @ $2.10
The Bulldogs went to war with Collingwood last Friday night in a scrappy affair only to walk away with nothing to show for their efforts.
Carlton, meanwhile, also found themselves in a tight contest against the Suns on the Gold Coast – a game the Blues somehow lost in the final minutes despite holding an 11-point lead at three-quarter time.
Finding confidence in either of these sides is difficult right now. Both the Dogs and Blues rank bottom six in average goals per-game, while neither seems to be able to dominate the contested ball.
These two sides met twice last year in blowout Bulldog victories. The Westerners have won five straight over Carlton, but even so, the line looks a little generous here. The Blues are 6-5 as the line underdog over the last 12 months and 2-1 against the Dogs. Back Carlton to make this is a contest.
Tip: Back the Blues to Cover the Line (+18.5 Points) @ $1.90
Don’t look now, but a win for the Suns on Sunday could vault them inside the Top 4. Gold Coast needed all four quarters to dispose of the Blues last week, but it was another well-rounded performance from Stuart Dew’s side as the Suns dominated inside 50.
Adelaide find themselves at the opposite end of the spectrum, and the ladder, after their second-straight defeat. This time, North Melbourne got the better of the Crows in a what was a one-sided affair on the stat sheet.
The Crows remain winless at home to start the season, and on both occasions, Adelaide failed to show up on the scoreboard. For whatever reason, the bookies appear to be giving the Suns no credit for their winning start to the season, and with a generous line on offer, it’s worth nothing Gold Coast are 7-4 against the line as the away underdog over the last 12 months.
Tip: Back the Suns to Cover the Line (+28.5 Points) @ $1.90
The AFL’s traditional Easter clash kicks off from the G’ on Monday afternoon, and if you aren’t familiar with how these games normally turn out, you’re in for a real treat.
Four of the last five meetings between the Hawks and Cats have been decided by 10-points or less, but unfortunately, Hawthorn’s growing injury list puts this game in some doubt.
Alastair Clarkson’s side not only lost to the Saints in heartbreaking fashion last week, they also lost James Frawley to a hamstring injury and captain Ben Stratton to a concussion. Both players play pivotal roles in Hawthorn’s back line, and against a side like Geelong, one that is averaging 13.8 goals a game this season, the Hawks could be in for a long afternoon.
Hawthorn have rallied with the troops down before, but there’s a clear lack of depth in this present outfit. The forward line is booming right now with Luke Breust in sparkling form and the ever-dangerous Chad Wingard, but if the Hawks lose the clearance battle like they did last week against St. Kilda, they’ll stand no chance against the Cats.
For Geelong, there’s plenty on the line. The Cats made a meal of last week’s game surrendering a six-goal half time lead to go on and lose by four points. Chris Scott’s side switched off in the second half, but if they wish to remain on top of the ladder, they’ll need a full fourth quarter effort against an understrength Hawks side.
Tip: Back the Cats to Win 1-39 @ $2.10
2018
Round 5 of the 2018 AFL season has been spread out over almost a week due to the Anzac Day and that means we will be treated to AFL action from Friday until Wednesday.
The round gets underway with a genuine blockbuster between the Sydney Swans and Adelaide and concludes with the always memorable Anzac Clash between Collingwood and Essendon.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 AFL Round 5 tips can be found below.
This is a genuine Friday Night Blockbuster between two of the best sides in the competition.
Sydney improved their record to 3-1 with a fighting victory over the Western Bulldogs last weekend and they will go into this clash with Adelaide as clear favourites.
The Swans have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites and they have covered the line in eight of these wins.
Adelaide produced a truly awful performance against Collingwood last Friday night and they will need to improve significantly to have any chance of beating the Swans.
The Crows have lost their past two games as away underdogs and they failed to cover the line in either of these defeats.
Sydney are always tough to beat at the SCG and they should prove too strong for the Crows.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-16.5 Points)
Greater Western Sydney will go into this clash with St Kilda as clear favourites.
They were wasteful at times against Fremantle, but they were still able to come away with the four points.
Winning away from home it still something of an issue for GWS and they have won only four of their past nine games as away favourites for a clear loss.
St Kilda produced their third awful performance on the trot against Geelong last weekend and they are a side that do have big issues.
The Saints were able to record an upset win over the Giants last season, but they aren’t playing at that level this season and they have won only two of their past five games as home underdogs.
This is a game that the Giants should win comfortably, but there is no value at their current price.
No Bet
The West Coast Eagles are the shortest-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.
West Coast made it three wins on the trot with a comprehensive win over the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, but winning in Melbourne is always a tougher challenge for the Eagles.
They have won only one of their past four games as away underdogs and it is always tough to back them with confidence at the MCG.
Carlton showed plenty of promise in their opening round clash against Richmond, but they have since been poor and they were nothing short of pathetic against North Melbourne last weekend.
The Blues have won only three of their past nine games as home underdogs, but they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
Carlton are not as bad a side as their recent form suggests and they are capable of giving West Coast a scare at the MCG.
Back Carlton To Cover The Line (+27.5 Points)
Port Adelaide suffered their first loss of the season against Essendon last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with Geelong as clear favourites.
The Power have won only one of their past 14 games against Port Adelaide and this will be a big test of exactly where they are at this season.
Port Adelaide have won only eight of their past 11 games as home favourites and they are a middling 5-6 against the line in this scenario.
Geelong ended their losing run with a comfortable win over St Kilda and they really do look over the odds in this clash.
Their record against Port Adelaide can’t be discounted – winning at the Adelaide Oval hasn’t been an issue – and there is nowhere near as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests.
Geelong are well and truly over the odds and one of the best value betting options of the weekend.
Back Geelong To Win @ $2.55
It has been a promising start to the season for Fremantle and they will go into this clash with the Western Bulldogs as favourites.
The Dockers were not disgraced against Greater Western Sydney last weekend and they won well against both Essendon and the Gold Coast in their two games before that.
Fremantle have won their past four games as home favourites and they are an impressive 3-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs continue their resurgence with a narrow defeat at the hands of Sydney last weekend and this will be a good test of how much they have improved since their dismal performance against the West Coast Eagles in round four.
Winning away from home has been an issue for the Bulldogs and they have lost their past five games as away underdogs, while they are 2-3 against the line in this scenario.
I have been impressed with what I have seen from Fremantle this season and they can return to winning form.
Back Fremantle To Cover The Line (-9.5 Points)
Both these teams head into this clash on the back of big wins in round four.
Hawthorn have an excellent record against North Melbourne – they have won ten of the past 12 games played between the two sides – and they will go into this clash as clear as favourites.
The Hawks have won four of their past six games as favourites, but they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
North Melbourne were nothing short of outstanding against Carlton last weekend and they have shown plenty of signs of improvement this season to date.
This will obviously be a much tougher challenge for the Kangaroos, but they have won five of their past 14 games as underdogs for a clear profit and their record at Etihad Stadium is strong.
This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting standpoint.
No Bet
This is set to be an intriguing edition of the Q-Clash and it is somewhat of a surprise that the Brisbane Lions are set to start as narrow favourites.
Brisbane showed promise without winning in their first three matches of the season, but they were very poor against Richmond last weekend and they kicked only two goals.
The Lions were able to win both their games against the Gold Coast Suns last season and they have won their past four games against their rivals as home favourites.
Gold Coast were no match for the West Coast Eagles last weekend, but that always looked likely to be the case after they spent close to a fortnight in Perth.
They will have a more traditional preparation for this clash, but their record away from home doesn’t not inspire confidence – they have won only one of their past ten games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario isn’t much better.
The Lions may never have a better chance to record their first win of the season.
Back Brisbane To Cover The Line (-4.5 Points)
The Anzac Day Eve clash between Melbourne and Richmond has become a showcase fixture on the AFL calendar and there will be a massive crowd at the MCG on Tuesday night.
Richmond were nothing short of outstanding against the Brisbane Lions last weekend and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
The Tigers have won 11 of their past 14 games as favourites and they have covered the line in nine of these victories.
There has been plenty of pressure heaped on Melbourne this week following their poor loss against Hawthorn last weekend and how they respond will be a great insight into the character of this side.
Melbourne have generally produced their best football when not a great deal is expected of them and they have won four of their past seven games as underdogs for a big profit.
The market that really does appeal in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting.
The Under has saluted in 18 of the past 25 games played by Richmond and has also been a profitable betting play in Melbourne fixtures over the past 12 months.
Back Under 175.5 Points
The Anzac Day Clash is one of the most anticipated events on the AFL calendar and we are set for an incredibly tight tussle at the MCG on Wednesday.
Collingwood produced one of their best performances of the season in 12 months to beat the Adelaide Crows last weekend and they are set to go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The Magpies have won six of their past nine games as favourites for a profit and they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.
Essendon returned to winning form with an excellent performance against Port Adelaide, but consistency continues to elude them and they need to play at that level every weekend if they are going to be a genuine contender in 2018.
The Bombers have won six of their past 13 games as underdogs and they are 8-5 against the line in this scenario.
There really does not look to be a great deal between these two teams and I am expecting a very tight contest, so the $2.63 on offer for either team to win by less than 15.5 points really does appeal.
Back Either Team To Win By Less Than 15.5 Points @ $2.63
2017
We are now a month into the 2017 AFL season and it is fair to say that nobody expected the ladder to look like it does.
Hawthorn, Sydney and North Melbourne were all top eight sides last season, but they are still chasing their first wins of the year and it really doesn’t get any easier for them this weekend.
We have analysed every game in the AFL this weekend and you can find our 2017 AFL Round 5 tips below!
Port Adelaide are one of a number of short-priced favourites in the AFL this weekend.
The Power head into this clash on the back of back-to-back defeats against both Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney, but this is obviously a much easier challenge.
Port Adelaide have struggled somewhat at the Adelaide Oval over the past 12 months and they have won only three of their past five games as home favourites for a loss.
Carlton went down to Gold Coast last weekend and they are yet to score over 90 points in a single game this season.
The Blues have actually won their past two games against Port Adelaide and they have covered the line in five of their past seven games as away underdogs.
It really would not surprise if Carlton gave Port Adelaide a scare and they are a great bet to beat the line with a start of 37.5 points.
Back Carlton To Beat The Line (+37.5 Points)
The Western Bulldogs got out of jail late against North Melbourne and they are dominate favourites to beat the Brisbane Lions this weekend.
It is fair to say that the Western Bulldogs have not played at their best so far this season, but they have still only lost the one game.
They have won seven of their past eight games as home favourites and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
A host of skill errors cost the Brisbane Lions badly against Richmond last weekend and they still have an inability to play out a strong four quarters.
Brisbane have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they have also been a losing betting play against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs really should prove far too strong for the Lions and they can cover the hefty line of 43.5 points.
Back The Western Bulldogs To Beat The Line (-43.5 Points)
The Adelaide Crows are flying high on top of the AFL Ladder and they will start this clash with the Gold Coast Suns as clear favourites.
Adelaide maintained their unbeaten start to the season with a dominant victory over Essendon and there is no reason to suggest they can’t continue their unbeaten run.
The Crows have won seven of their past eight games as away favourites for a clear profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
Gold Coast made it two wins on the trot with a fighting victory over Carlton, but this is obviously a much tougher challenge.
The Suns are still chasing their first win over Adelaide and it looks unlikely to come this weekend.
Gold Coast have won only one of their past six games as home underdogs and they are 2-4 in this scenario.
The Crows can continue their winning run and cover the line in the process.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-26.5 Points)
It is fair to say that the complexion of the Sydney Derby has changed significantly over the past 12 months.
Greater Western Sydney won both games played between these two sides last season and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The Giants have worked their way into this season and it would not surprise to see them go to another level against Swans.
Greater Western Sydney have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites, but they are only 5-5 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney produced their worst performance of the season to date against West Coast to suffer four losses from as many games.
This will be the first time in over 12 months that Sydney have started a home game as underdogs and they have not been a profitable betting team at home over the past 12 months.
The market looks to have got this game just about right and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash from a betting standpoint.
No Bet
Fremantle have bounced back from their horror start to the season to win two games on the trot and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The Dockers showed plenty of fight to take four points from their clash with Melbourne last weekend and a similar performance would be enough to dispose of North Melbourne.
Fremantle have won two of their past three games as the punter’s elect for a profit and they have an identical record against the line.
North Melbourne were far from disgraced against the Western Bulldogs last weekend, but were once again unable to come away with the four points.
The Kangaroos have now lost their past 12 games as underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is not much better.
I have been very taken with what I have seen from Fremantle over the past fortnight and they can continue their winning run this weekend.
Back Fremantle To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)
Geelong continued their unbeaten start to the season with a dominant win over Hawthorn and they are clear favourites to depose of St Kilda this weekend.
While Geelong are yet to lose this season they have still been a tough team to trust from a betting standpoint – they have won six of their past nine games as away favourites for a narrow loss and they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
St Kilda made it two wins in a row with a fairly ugly win over Collingwood and they will take confidence from the fact that they played that badly, but still came away with the four points.
The Saints have won three of their past six games as home underdogs – including a win over Geelong 12 months ago – and they are 4-2 against the line in this scenario.
I am of the belief that Geelong are not as good as their current record suggests and St Kilda will give them a genuine challenge this weekend.
Back St Kilda To Beat The Line (+15.5 Points)
Is this the end of an era?
Hawthorn have lost all four games so far this season and they looked completely outclassed by Geelong in their traditional Easter Monday clash.
The Hawks have lost their past two games as home underdogs and have failed to cover the line in both those clashes, while it is incredibly tough to back them based on their recent efforts.
West Coast returned to winning form with a comfortable win over Sydney and this really is their chance to beat Hawthorn at the MCG.
The Eagles have won five of their past seven games as away favourites for a narrow loss and they are only 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is another game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out of this clash.
No Bet
Richmond have made a stunning start to the 2017 AFL season and they are favourites to make it five wins on the trot this weekend.
The Tigers got through what looked like it could be a trap game against the Brisbane Lions comfortably, but their recent record against Melbourne does not inspire confidence.
Richmond have won seven of their past eight games as the punter’s elect, but they are only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne suffered their second straight loss at the hands of Fremantle and the fact that they were unable to close out that clash has to be an alarming sign to their finals chances.
The Demons have won four of their past 12 games as underdogs for a narrow profit and they are 7-5 against the line in this scenario.
The real value in this clash is in Total Points betting markets.
Backing the Under in Richmond games at the MCG has been highly profitable in recent years and the Under has saluted in 40 of the past 66 games played by Melbourne at the venue.
Back Under 185.5 Points
The traditional Anzac Day clash between Essendon and Collingwood is always one of the highlights of the AFL season and this is set to be a very interesting affair.
Both these sides come into this clash off disappointing defeats, but it is Collingwood that will start this clash as favourites.
Collingwood really could not have been poorer against St Kilda last week and they are a side that is very tough to trust from a betting standpoint – they have won just three of their past seven games as favourites.
Essendon made a promising start to the season, but they were disgraceful against Carlton a fortnight ago and they were no match for a rampant Adelaide.
There really is not a great deal between these two teams and the $2.05 on offer for the Bombers really does offer some value in what really should be a pickem clash.
Back Essendon To Win @ $2.05
2016
Round 5 of the 2016 AFL season is highlighted by the Anzac Day Clash between the Collingwood Magpies and Essendon Bombers.
The game is expected to be lopsided in 2016 due to the number of players the Bombers will be missing due to suspension, but it is still one of the biggest occasions in all of Australian sport.
It is definitely not the only exciting game this weekend as a number of other finals contenders will likely do battle, highlighted by the Saturday afternoon clash between the Sydney Swans and the West Coast Eagles.
It was not smooth sailing for Hawthorn, but they were still able to get the down against St Kilda, while Adelaide stamped themselves as the real deal with a very impressive performance against the Sydney Swans.
Hawthorn have won the past six games between these two sides – including a big win in a semi-final last season – and they will start this game as clear favourites.
The Hawks are 8-3 as home favourites in the past 12 months and their record against the line in this scenario is an uninspiring 4-7.
Adelaide have not been a winning betting proposition as underdogs in head to head betting, but they are 9-6 against the line as underdogs in the past 12 months and it was impossible not be impressed by what they did last weekend.
This will be another very close game for the Hawks and I am happy to back the Crows with a start of 16.5 points.
Recommended Bets: Back The Adelaide Crows To Beat The Line (+16.5 Points)
The rivalry between the Sydney Swans and the West Coast Eagles was the most exciting in the AFL in the mid-2ooos and this weekend’s meeting is set to be another thriller.
Sydney went down to Adelaide last weekend, but they lost no admirers with their brave performance and they will start this game on Saturday as clear favourites.
The Swans are 8-3 as home favourites this season for a narrow loss and they are 5-6 against the line in this scenario, but they have won their past four games as favourites against the West Coast Eagles.
West Coast demolished a disappointing Richmond last weekend and their poor effort against Hawthorn in round two is there only blemish at this stage of the season.
The Eagles have proven to be a very successful team as underdogs in the past 12 months and they are 3-0 in head to head betting as away underdogs.
There really is not a great deal between these two sides and the West Coast Eagles are the definite value in this fixture at their current quote of $2.20.
Recommended Bet: Back The West Coast Eagles To Win @ $2.20
North Melbourne have flown under the radar so far this season, but they now sit on top of the AFL Ladder following their four straight wins over Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Fremantle.
North Melbourne have been a very safe betting side in the past 12 months and they are a most impressive 14-2 as favourites over this time period as well as 7-1 as home favourites.
Their record against the line is this scenario is almost as impressive and they are 6-2 away from home when giving a start.
The Gold Coast Suns promising start to the season came crashing down following their disappointing loss to the Brisbane Lions last Saturday afternoon and it will be very interesting to see how they bounce back.
The Suns have a good record in front of their hands at Metricon Stadium, but they have won just 3 of their past 18 games as underdogs and they are 7-11 against the line when being given a start.
I don’t see any reason to jump off North Melbourne this weekend and they are a great bet to cover the line of 14.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back North Melbourne To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points)
The Brisbane Lions finally recorded their first win off the season against the Gold Coast Suns last weekend, but they will still start this fixture against the Western Bulldogs as clear underdogs.
While the Lions showed plenty of heart against the Suns, it is still tough to trust them from a betting perspective going forward and they have won just one of their past 12 games as away underdogs, while they are 3-8 against the line in this scenario.
The Western Bulldogs have been hit by an injury crisis in recent weeks, but they were still able to get the job done against Carlton and they have more than enough talent to put away the Brisbane Lions.
The Bulldogs are 5-3 against the line as home favourites in the past 12 months and they always produce their best football at Etihad Stadium.
The Lions don’t have the talent to much it with a firing Bulldogs offense and the line of 40.5 points will not be enough.
Recommended Bet: Back The Bulldogs To Beat The Line (-40.5 Points)
It has been overshadowed by the poor start made by both Richmond and Collingwood, but Port Adelaide have been just as bad to start the season.
Port Adelaide were nothing short of woeful against the Greater Western Sydney Giants last weekend and a similar performance against the Cats will see them blown off the field.
This will be just the second time that the Power have started a game at the Adelaide Oval as underdogs in the past 12 months and they won that fixture, but they have won just one of their past nine games against Geelong.
Geelong produced a rusty performance against Essendon and outside of their first round victory against Hawthorn, they have been fairly lacklustre and they have not been a profitable betting side as favourites over the past 12 months.
Port Adelaide normally produce their best performances against the best sides in the competition and they can’t possibly play as bad as they did last weekend, so I am willing to take the gamble that they can return to winning form.
Recommended Bet: Back Port Adelaide To Win @ $2.35
They had their chances but St Kilda were unable to get the job against Hawthorn last weekend and it will be interesting to see what effect that close loss has on them moving forward.
The Saints have struggled at Etihad Stadium in the past 12 months and they have won just one of their past 11 games at the venue, while they are 4-7 against the line as home underdogs.
Greater Western Sydney have made an up and down start to the AFL season, but they were absolutely ruthless against Port Adelaide last weekend and a similar performance would be more than enough to beat the Saints.
The Giants don’t have a great record away from home, but they are 8-5 against the line as favourites and if they play at anywhere near their best then the line of 9.5 points will not be anywhere near enough.
Recommended Bet: Back GWS Giants To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)
This could be one of the most important games of the round because a Fremantle victory would just about end their chances of playing finals football.
The Dockers showed some promising signs against North Melbourne, but they were still blown away in the final quarter and they have an 0-4 record.
While they will surely be able to finally get their account off the mark against Carlton, there is no way that you could possibly dive in at the short quote and they are 5-7 against the line as home favourites.
Carlton are also winless for the 2016 season and they are another team that I am not really interested in backing until I see something – they have lost their past 11 games as away underdogs and they have been a losing betting proposition against the line in this metric.
This is the least interesting game of the round from a betting perspective and one that I am more than keen to stay out of.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Richmond are another team that is under a enormous amount of pressure heading into this weekend following their ugly losses to Adelaide and West Coast.
There is a chance that Brett Deledio, Ivan Maric and Anthony Miles could all return for the Tigers this weekend and that would be a major boost, but it is tough to have any faith in Richmond following their past two efforts.
The Tigers have won just nine of their past 16 games as favourites and they are a horrid 5-11 against the line as the punter’s elect.
Melbourne returned to winning form with a comprehensive performance against Collingwood last weekend, but it has been consistency that has been the issue for the Demons in recent seasons.
They scored a big victory over GWS in round one before losing to a depleted Essendon and they have recorded back-to-back wins just once in the past 12 months.
There is plenty of reasons to doubt both these teams leading into this intriguing fixture and it is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
The Anzac Day Clash is one of the biggest of the AFL Calendar, but it is fair to say that the lead-up to this fixture has been much different then in recent years.
This contest was expected to be a cake walk for Collingwood at the start of the season, but they are a club in crisis after back-to-back losses to St Kilda and Melbourne and another loss could spell trouble for coach Nathan Buckley.
Collingwood will still start this game as clear favourites, but they have lost seven of their past 13 games as favourites and they are a horrid 4-9 against the line.
It is clear that this Essendon list badly lacks talent, but they have given it their all in recent weeks and they were not disgraced against either Port Adelaide or Geelong.
There is a question mark over whether this young list will handle the big occasion of the Anzac Day Clash, but they do have a number of older players with big game experience and I really think they will give this game a shout.
Recommended Bet: Back Essendon To Beat The Line (+26.5 Points)