There’s no rest for the wicked as the NBL quickly transitions to Round 3 on Tuesday night with the Bullets searching for their first win of the season against the Kings.
The highlight of the round comes on Sunday when undefeated Melbourne United battle the Phoenix in the first Throwdown of the season, followed by what could be another close battle between the Wildcats and Breakers in Perth.
Just about every game on the slate holds almost even money on offer, and you can find our best bets for the entire week in our 2021 NBL Round 3 Preview below!
This shapes up to be a very close affair between two bitter rivals on Tuesday night.
The Bullets remain winless to start the season following back-to-back losses to The Hawks, while the Kings are hoping to build on momentum after pulling off an upset in Cairns last week against the Taipans.
Brisbane’s lack of defensive depth looked to be their biggest issue entering the season, but so far, their troubles have reached far beyond.
The Bullets shot just 18% from three against the Hawks, a worrying sign against a Kings team that looked dangerous from outside the perimeter last week.
Errors have also been a big part of Brisbane’s troubles, another concern after the Kings forced 11 turnovers against Cairns.
This game should turn out relatively close, but it’s hard to get past the value on offer for the Kings head-to-head.
Tip: Back the Kings to Win @ $1.80
Plenty of experts had Adelaide marked down as a serious contender this year, and so far, it’s not hard to see why.
The 36ers scrapped their way to a three-point win over the Breakers last Friday thanks to a massive 29-point game from the bench.
The Breakers will be hungry for revenge after opening their season with a loss, but they’ll need to tidy things up pretty quick after turning the ball over 17 times last week.
Adelaide has enjoyed the luxury of home-court advantage this year and it’s almost surprising to find even money on offer here.
Like the 36ers, plenty is expected from the Kiwis in 2021, but this Adelaide side does look tough to back against if they can repeat last week’s performance.
Tip: Back the 36ers to Win & Over 179.5 Total Points @ $3.60
The Hawks have been the early surprise packets of the 2021 season as they look to maintain their unbeaten record with another upset win over the Taipans on Thursday night.
Brian Goorjian’s side made short work of Cairns with a 16-point win back in Round 1, but judging by the odds on offer, that still hasn’t been enough to sway the bookies in favour of the visitors.
Cairns, meanwhile, has suffered back-to-back losses to the Kings and Melbourne since losing to the Hawks a fortnight ago.
The Taipans’ biggest problem this season has been securing rebounds, which in turn has left them ranking seventh in points-per-game.
Both of those areas have been strengths for the Hawks so far and it’s tough to back against them with so much value on offer.
Tip: Back The Hawks to Win @ $2.20
The defending champs opened their season with a comfortable win last week against the Phoenix, which almost makes the current -5.5 line look a little generous.
Perth absolutely dominated down low scoring 48 of their points in the paint, but it’s fair to say the Wildcats still have some improvement to come after struggling to find their usual consistency from beyond the arc.
There’s no question the Phoenix should be a contender this year after pulling off a nice win against Adelaide last week.
That said, Perth is always tough to bet against with home-court advantage, especially considering they’ve now covered in all three of their home against the Phoenix.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Bullets will be hoping to carry some of the momentum from their mid-week win over the Kings into Saturday’s home clash against the Taipans.
Brisbane has typically enjoyed the better part of this matchup in recent years winning each of their last three home games against Cairns, but that being said, the Taipans also have a big point to prove after opening the season 1-3 prior to Thursday’s meeting with the Hawks.
Playing on short rest largely explains why there’s almost even money on offer in the market, but they do represent good value if they can exploit Brisbane’s weak areas like the Hawks did last week.
The Bullets have been awful from three this year and they really don’t have a deep bench to rely on if their starters fail to fire.
As mentioned earlier, the Taipans have struggled to secure offensive rebounds so far, but they have managed to find some consistency from beyond the arc.
After some tough opening games against the Hawks and Melbourne, this looks a much more winnable game for Cairns than the market suggests.
Tip: Back the Taipans to Win @ $1.80
The Kings have edged their way into favouritism on Saturday night after picking up their first win of the season last week against the Taipans.
Sydney wasn’t quite as sharp on Tuesday night when losing by three to the Bullets, but if you’ve paid attention to the Kings in recent years, you’ll know they almost always bounce back.
The Kings have won four of their last five games on the back of a loss, while perhaps more importantly, they’ve also won four of their last five over the 36ers dating back to 2018.
On the flip side, the 36ers have recorded two wins this year on short rest to go along with a perfect 2-0 record as the home underdog against Sydney.
It’s tough to read too much into the Kings’ win over the Taipans last week and their loss to the Bullets on Tuesday showed just how vulnerable they can be defensively.
Adelaide, meanwhile, has high expectations for this season, and they do look a good bet with some insurance on offer.
Tip: Back the 36ers to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points) @ $1.90
The first Throwdown game of the season tips off on Sunday with United pegged as -5.5 favourites in betting.
While they’ve only played two games, United has resembled a well-oiled machine in two road wins against the 36ers and Taipans as they now return home to take on their rivals.
The Phoenix have obviously drawn the short end of the stick here having to travel back from Perth on just one day’s rest.
That alone is enough of a reason to back United to cover, alongside the fact Melbourne has covered in four of its last five games as a favourite.
The Phoenix won the first-ever Throwdown last season before United won each of the next three.
Two of those wins came by 10-points or more and it wouldn’t be surprising if this one turned out the same.
Tip: Back Melbourne United to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.90
The Breakers have spent the better part of a week reflecting on their opening round loss to Adelaide as they now travel across the country to face the Wildcats in Perth.
New Zealand’s delayed start to the season should work in their favour at some point, but it’s tough to see them pulling out an upset here against a Perth side that has drawn all the favours to start the season.
The Breakers haven’t won at the RAC Arena since 2017, while they won’t hold particularly fond memories of their agonising one-point loss at this venue this time last year.
One of the Kiwis’ biggest problems last week against the 36ers was turnovers, an issue that really won’t fly against this lethal Wildcats outfit.
Tip: Back the Wildcats to Win @ $1.70
2020
The NBL shifts into fifth gear this week as an action-packed seven-game slate tips off on Friday night.
Only a fortnight on from a thrilling Grand Final rematch between Perth and Melbourne, the two championship favourites square off again on Sunday with plenty of value on offer.
Surprises keep coming thick and fast, so if you’re looking to find a few winners this weekend, be sure to read our entire 2019/20 NBL Round 3 Preview below.
The undefeated Kings are heavy favourites at home on Friday night as they prepare to face a Breakers side playing their first game of the 2019/20 season.
Sydney made short work of the 36ers last weekend winning by 22-points in a game dominated by Brad Newley and Casper Ware. Andrew Bogut also chipped in with eight-points and four rebounds, making up what already looks to be a very dangerous starting rotation.
The Kings dominated the Breakers last season winning all five games by an average margin of 12-points. Not surprisingly, Sydney is 4-1-1 as the home favourite at the line against New Zealand, so it’s not worth overcomplicating this one.
Tip: Back the Kings to Cover the Line
The reigning champs haven’t missed a beat so far stringing together a pair of impressive victories over Melbourne and Illawarra in back-to-back rounds.
Perth return home on Friday night as they look to remain undefeated, and with the winless Taipans in town, this one might seem like it’s headed for a blowout.
Cairns endured a tough pair of road games last week as they were torn apart by the Bullets before a close shave against the Hawks on Monday night.
To their credit, the Taipans did hold on for a narrow two-point win over the Wildcats late last season, snapping their previous four-game losing streak against Perth. The odds suggest the Wildcats will be tough to beat, but there’s still plenty to be said about the Taipans after their performance in Illawarra.
At one stage Cairns led by as many as 11-points before some sloppy defence cost them in the second half. Statiscially though, the Taipans shot 57% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc, making them a handful for even the most elite defensive teams.
With a big line set in favour of the hosts, don’t be surprised if Cairns at least keeps this one close.
Tip: Back the Taipans to Cover the Line
The 36ers have had a week to reflect on their season-opening loss to the Kings.
Losing by 22-points, Adelaide took a beating in Sydney, but with home-court advantage in Round 3, we should be in for a tight tussle between two talented offensive teams.
Brisbane opened Round 2 with a blowout win over the Taipans before falling to the Phoenix in Melbourne. The short turnaround played a huge part in the loss as the Bullets shot just 28% from three.
With even money on offer, it’s worth looking at some of the recent trends between these two teams to find a winner. Brisbane has won three of their last five meetings against Adelaide, while this is also the first time the 36ers have opened as the home underdogs against the Bullets.
Brisbane has shown plenty of life on attack so far this season behind leading points scorer Lamar Patterson. The Bullets have also won their last two games in Adelaide, so take the value on offer head-to-head.
Tip: Back the Bullets to Win @ $1.80
South East Melbourne’s undefeated start to the season has caught plenty of NBL pundits by surprise three weeks in.
The Phoenix wasted no time delighting their home fans to a big win over the Bullets last Sunday, piling on the points in a comfortable 20-point victory.
South East Melbourne are the odds-on favourites again as they prepare to face the Hawks in what looks to be the game of the round.
Lamelo Ball and the Hawks got their first win on the board last week in a narrow one-point victory over the Taipans. It was a Monday night thriller that came right down to the wire as Todd Blanchfield led the way with a big 20-point performance.
The Phoenix did a great job last week holding the Bullets to just seven three-pointers from 25 attempts. Considering these teams have never played eachother before, back South East Melbourne to keep the good times rolling.
Tip: Back South East Melbourne to Cover the Line
The Breakers head home on Sunday for the second game of their Round 3 doubleheader against the Kings.
It’s a short turnaround for both sides, but the bookies are still in favour of the ladder leaders as they look to keep their impressive record against the Breakers in check.
The Kings have won five straight games over New Zealand dating back to the beginning of last season, and with an impressive 4-2 record as the away favourite at the line over the last 12 months, its difficult to fade Sydney in the market.
New Zealand hasn’t won a home game against Sydney since 2017, so considering their late start to the season and minimal rest, stick with the favourites.
Tip: Back the Kings to Cover the Line
If this game turns out anything like Round 1’s Grand Final rematch, we should be in for a real treat.
The Wildcats held on for a narrow one-point win over Melbourne a fortnight ago, but that still hasn’t been enough to sway the bookies with United at home this time around.
Perth has now won their last three games over Melbourne, but there’s something to be said about a well-rested United side fresh from a week off.
The Wildcats hardly had a challenge last week at home against the Hawks, while Melbourne can take plenty of faith in the fact they shot a whopping 71% from the field when these two met in Round 1.
With that in mind, back United to get a little revenge on the reigning champs.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Win @ $1.75
The Hawks headline Monday night for the second week in a row as they hope to keep the good times rolling against the 36ers.
Both sides roll into this one on little rest, which could pave the way for a low-scoring game.
Adelaide has won three of their last five meetings against the Hawks, but considering both teams have looked very inconsistent so far, this is probably a game worth steering clear of.
Tip: No Bet
2018
It is a huge weekend in the NBL and there are seven games spread across four days.
The Perth Wildcats are the only unbeaten team left in the NBL this season, while every side has recorded at least one victory.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018/2019 NBL Round 3 tips can be found below.
The Brisbane Bullets may have the homecourt advantage, but it is the Perth Wildcats that will start this game as clear favourites.
Brisbane were no match for Perth when these two sides met last weekend and it really doesn’t get much easier for them.
The Bullets have won four of their past eight games as home underdogs for a profit, but their overall record at home is poor and they are tough to trust from a betting perspective.
Perth have never really looked like winning a game this season and winning on the road isn’t an issue for them.
They have won five of their past eight games as away favourites, but they are only a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
This is another game where the away side are set to start as favourites.
Winning in Cairns has not been an issue for the Adelaide 36ers in recent seasons and it is no real surprise that they are set to start this game as favourites.
Adelaide have won two of their past three games as away favourites, but they covered the line in only one of those wins.
The Cairns Taipans produced a fairly flat performance against the Illawarra Hawks last weekend and they have won only one of their past four games against the 36ers.
Cairns are a middling 6-6 at home over the past 12 months and the Cairns Convention Centre is not the fortress that it should be.
Adelaide are a safe bet to return to winning form following their narrow loss at the hands of Melbourne United.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.77
This is is easily the game of the round and is set to be a highly competitive affair.
It is Perth that will go into this game as favourites, but it is Melbourne United that have won the past two games played between the two sides.
The Perth Arena is not the fortress that it once was and the Wildcats have won only seven of their past 13 games as home favourites.
Melbourne United returned to winning form with a fighting victory over Adelaide United and there is little doubt that they will be contenders once again.
They have won four of their past eight games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are great value to score another upset win.
Back Melbourne United To Win @ $2.05
The Illawarra Hawks recorded their first win of the season with a comfortable victory over the Cairns Taipans last weekend and they will start this clash with the Brisbane Bullets as clear favorites.
Illawarra have won seven of their eight games against Brisbane since the Bullets returned to the NBL in 2016, but their recent record at home is not convincing.
They have won only six of their past 14 games as home favourites and winning back-to-back games is a struggle.
Brisbane have not won at WIN Entertainment Centre since they returned to the NBL, but they generally perform better on the road than the market expects.
The Bullets have covered the line in eight of their past 14 games as away underdogs and it would not surprise to see them give the Hawks a scare in this contest.
Back Brisbane To Cover The Line (+3.5 Points)
The New Zealand Breakers were flogged by the Sydney Kings last weekend and it has been a troubling start to the season for the Kiwis.
They face an Adelaide 36ers outfit that has won the past three games played between the two sides and has a strong record on the road.
The Breakers have won only seven of their past 14 games as home favourites and their record against the line is poor, while the 36ers have proven to be a profitable betting play as away underdogs.
Adelaide are more than capable of winning than game and I like them at the line with a start of 2.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Cover The Line (+2.5 Points)
The Sydney Kings were finally able to record their first win of the Andrew Bogut era last weekend, but they need to keep winning to take the pressure off coach Andrew Gaze.
Things did seem to finally click for the Kings in that game against the New Zealand Breakers and they face a Cairns Taipans side that is on the quick back-up.
Sydney have won five of their past six games against Cairns and the home side has won ten of the past 12 games played between the two sides.
The Kings do look like one of the safest betting plays of the weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 5.5 points comfortably.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-5.5 Points)
Melbourne United are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend.
Melbourne have won five of their past six games against the Illawarra Hawks and they have now won 16 of their past 19 games as home favourites, while they are 11-1-7 against the line in that scenario.
In saying that, Illawarra saved their best basketball for the road last season and they have won six of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a huge profit.
This is another game that the market looks to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
2017/2018
It has been a very interesting start to the NBL season.
The first round of the season was packed full of close finishes, while round two was dominated by the likes of the Adelaide 36ers putting up some very big scores.
We had four winning bets from our four tips in the NBL last weekend and we are confident that we can continue our excellent start to the season, so don’t miss out 2017 NBL Round 3 tips that can be found below.
This will be the second meeting between the New Zealand Breakers and the Sydney Kings in less than a week.
It was New Zealand that recorded a narrow win over Sydney last weekend, but it is still the Kings that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The Breakers have proven to be a winning betting play at home over the past 12 months and they have covered the line in nine of their past 15 games at home.
Sydney recorded their first win of the season against the Illawarra Hawks on Sunday, but in the process they lost captain Kevin Lisch for two months.
Lisch is a massive loss for the Kings and his absence will definitely test the depth of the Kings roster.
Sydney have won just two of their past seven games as away favourites and taking them on in this scenario has been a highly profitable play.
We backed the Breakers to beat the Kings last weekend and we will be sticking with that strategy once again.
Back New Zealand To Win @ $1.95
The Brisbane Bullets have returned to Australia after they were beaten by the Phoenix Suns in the United States last weekend.
Brisbane started their NBL season with a loss at the hands of the Perth Wildcats and they have now won only one of their past eight games.
The Bullets will go into this clash as favourites, but their record in this position last season was particularly poor – they won only one of their seven games as home favourites.
The Cairns Taipans came crashing back to earth when they were absolutely flogged by the Adelaide 36ers last Thursday night.
They are a much better side than that performance suggests and their record away from home is actually underrated.
Cairns have won six of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are 7-6 against the line in this scenario.
I am keen to take on the Bullets in this clash and the Taipans are a great bet to record an upset win.
Back Cairns To Win @ $2.20
The Perth Wildcats have made an excellent start to the NBL season and they will start this clash with Melbourne United as clear favourites.
Perth never looked like losing against either the Brisbane Bullets or the Illawarra Hawks and they are always very tough to beat at home – they have won 11 of their past 15 games as home favourites and they are 9-6 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne United have now played and beaten the Adelaide 36ers on two occasions this season and they have shown they can win on the road.
Beating Perth in Perth is a much tougher challenge.
Perth have won the past four games played between these two sides and it is rare that I want to take on the Wildcats in front of their home fans.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
It has been an up and down start to the NBL season for the Adelaide 36ers, but they will go into this clash with the Sydney Kings as clear favourites.
Adelaide have suffered a pair of defeats at the hands of Melbourne United, but in between those defeats they recorded big wins over both the Sydney Kings and the Cairns Taipans.
The 36ers have won eight of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 7-5 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney are on the quick back-up after playing the New Zealand Breakers on Thursday night and there is no doubt this is a tricky fixture for them.
The Kings have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line in this situation is no better.
This is a game that Adelaide really should win and the line of 3.5 points will not be enough.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)
Melbourne United are the shortest-priced favourites in the NBL this weekend.
This will be the first game that Melbourne United play at home this season and they were generally tough to beat in front of their home fans last season.
Melbourne won seven of their ten games as home favourites for a narrow profit and their record against the line in this scenario was identical.
The belief that the New Zealand Breakers struggle to win on this side of the Tasman is something of a myht.
New Zealand have won five of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are 7-5 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
The Illawarra Hawks are still chasing their first win of the season, but they will go into this clash with the Brisbane Bullets as clear favourites.
Illawarra have suffered defeats at the hands of the Cairns Taipans, Perth Wildcats and Sydney Kings, but to be fair this is their first home game of the season.
The Hawks have won seven of their past 12 games as home favourites for a loss and they are a poor 5-7 against the line.
Brisbane lost all four of their games against Illawarra last season and their record away from home makes it tough to back them with any real conviction.
The Bullets have won only three of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and they are a poor 4-9 against the line in this scenario.
Neither of these teams can be trusted from a betting perspective and this is another clash I will be staying out of.
No Bet
The Cairns Taipans may have the homecourt advantage, but it is the Perth Wildcats that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Perth lost the only game they started as away favourites last season and they have won only five of their past 15 games against Cairns in Cairns.
Cairns won all three of their games as home underdogs last season for a big profit and they have won five of their past nine games against the Wildcats in this scenario.
I am always keen to back Cairns in front of their home fans and they are one of the best value bets of the weekend.
Back Cairns To Win @ $2.25
2016/2017
It is a big few days for the Brisbane Bullets as they attempt to find their footing in their return to the NBL.
They face a tough roadtrip to Melbourne on Thursday for their clash with Melbourne United before they host the New Zealand Breakers in front of their home fans on Saturday.
This is an action-packed round in the NBL and you can find our thoughts as well as potential betting plays for every single game below!
The New Zealand Breakers were only narrowly beaten by the Perth Wildcats on Sunday and they will start this clash with the Sydney Kings as clear favourites.
New Zealand have won their past four games against Sydney and it is no secret that their record as home favourites is nothing short of outstanding – they are 12-3 in head-to-head betting and are 9-6 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney were the form team in round two of the NBL season and they were able to record impressive victories over both Illawarra and Cairns.
The Kings still have a very poor recent record away from home and they have won just two of their past 15 games as away underdogs, but they are a profitable 8-7 against the line.
New Zealand should be able to get the job done in front of their home fans and they are a safe bet at their current quote of $1.65.
Back New Zealand To Win @ $1.65
Melbourne United have bounced back from their slow start to the season to beat Adelaide and Illawarra and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The way that they won both those games was particularly impressive and this is the type of basketball that the majority of experts expected to see from Melbourne this season.
The problem for Melbourne is that they have won just ten of their past 15 games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are a poor 6-9 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane suffered their first loss of the seasons at the hands of the Adelaide 36ers, but there was still plenty of merit in the performance.
They showed against Sydney that they are more than capable of winning on the road and I am very keen to back them with a start of 5.5 points.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)
The Adelaide 36ers have been one of the most inconsistent sides during the NBL season to date and they will start this game with Cairns as clear favourites.
Adelaide showed plenty of tenacity to beat Brisbane on Sunday night and at their best they are arguably the most exciting team in the competition.
The 36ers have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 7-4 against the line in this scenario.
Cairns have made a slow start to their NBL season and it does not get any easier against Adelaide.
The Taipans have won just one of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a heavy loss and their record against the line is an extremely poor 3-10.
Adelaide will win this game comfortably and they are a safe bet to cover the line of 5.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
It has been a dramatic start to the season for the Perth Wildcats and they parted company with import Jaron Johnson after just three games.
The Wildcats will still go into this clash with Illawarra as clear favourites and it is no secret just how dominate they are at Perth Arena – they have won 17 of their past 19 games as home favourites and they are 11-2-6 against the line in this situation.
Illawarra looked the goods in their season opener against Adelaide, but they have since suffered defeats at the hands of Sydney and Melbourne.
They have won just two of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are a very poor 3-8 against the line in this situation.
I expect Perth to come out and make a statement this weekend, which suggests that the line of 6.5 points will not be enough.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Brisbane are still chasing their first win at the Brisbane Convention Centre after suffering an overtime defeat at the hands of Adelaide last weekend.
There have still been plenty of positives for the Bullets in their return to the NBL – they lead the competition in rebounds – and they really should only improve as they get further into the season.
Both these teams are on the quick back-up after playing on Thursday night, but the Breakers’ have also had international travel in between.
New Zealand have won three of their past ten games as away underdogs for a narrow loss, but they have actually been 5-1-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
Melbourne United look to have a clear advantage in this game as they have not done any travel this round, while the Wildcats are not only on the back-up but have had to travel from Perth.
In saying that, it has already been made clear that Melbourne United are far from the most consistent team in front of their home fans.
Melbourne United do actually have a strong record against Perth and the Wildcats have one just one of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 3-5 against the line.
This is almost a perfect scenario for Melbourne United and they should be able to get the job done.
Back Melbourne United To Win @ $1.60
This is the second meeting between the Sydney Kings and Illawarra Hawks this season after Sydney upstaged the Hawks last week.
Andrew Gaze looks to have already made some positive strides with Sydney and there is no doubt that he is keen to turn Qudos Bank Arena into a fortress.
The Kings have won four of their past five games as home favourites for a cleat profit and they have an identical record against the line.
Illawarra were able to Sydney away from home last season, but this is a much stronger Sydney outfit.
The Hawks have won just two of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a clear loss, while they are 3-8 against the line in this scenario.
Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)