The NBL shifts into fifth gear this week as an action-packed seven-game slate tips off on Friday night.
Only a fortnight on from a thrilling Grand Final rematch between Perth and Melbourne, the two championship favourites square off again on Sunday with plenty of value on offer.
Surprises keep coming thick and fast, so if you’re looking to find a few winners this weekend, be sure to read our entire 2019/20 NBL Round 3 Preview below.
New Zealand Breakers
Friday October 18, 7:30pm, Quodos Bank Arena
The undefeated Kings are heavy favourites at home on Friday night as they prepare to face a Breakers side playing their first game of the 2019/20 season.
Sydney made short work of the 36ers last weekend winning by 22-points in a game dominated by Brad Newley and Casper Ware. Andrew Bogut also chipped in with eight-points and four rebounds, making up what already looks to be a very dangerous starting rotation.
The Kings dominated the Breakers last season winning all five games by an average margin of 12-points. Not surprisingly, Sydney is 4-1-1 as the home favourite at the line against New Zealand, so it’s not worth overcomplicating this one.
Tip: Back the Kings to Cover the Line
Friday October 18, 9:30pm, RAC Arena
The reigning champs haven’t missed a beat so far stringing together a pair of impressive victories over Melbourne and Illawarra in back-to-back rounds.
Perth return home on Friday night as they look to remain undefeated, and with the winless Taipans in town, this one might seem like it’s headed for a blowout.
Cairns endured a tough pair of road games last week as they were torn apart by the Bullets before a close shave against the Hawks on Monday night.
To their credit, the Taipans did hold on for a narrow two-point win over the Wildcats late last season, snapping their previous four-game losing streak against Perth. The odds suggest the Wildcats will be tough to beat, but there’s still plenty to be said about the Taipans after their performance in Illawarra.
At one stage Cairns led by as many as 11-points before some sloppy defence cost them in the second half. Statiscially though, the Taipans shot 57% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc, making them a handful for even the most elite defensive teams.
With a big line set in favour of the hosts, don’t be surprised if Cairns at least keeps this one close.
Tip: Back the Taipans to Cover the Line
Saturday October 19, 5:30pm, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
The 36ers have had a week to reflect on their season-opening loss to the Kings.
Losing by 22-points, Adelaide took a beating in Sydney, but with home-court advantage in Round 3, we should be in for a tight tussle between two talented offensive teams.
Brisbane opened Round 2 with a blowout win over the Taipans before falling to the Phoenix in Melbourne. The short turnaround played a huge part in the loss as the Bullets shot just 28% from three.
With even money on offer, it’s worth looking at some of the recent trends between these two teams to find a winner. Brisbane has won three of their last five meetings against Adelaide, while this is also the first time the 36ers have opened as the home underdogs against the Bullets.
Brisbane has shown plenty of life on attack so far this season behind leading points scorer Lamar Patterson. The Bullets have also won their last two games in Adelaide, so take the value on offer head-to-head.
Tip: Back the Bullets to Win @ $1.80
South East Melbourne Phoenix
Saturday October 19, 8:00pm, Melbourne Arena
South East Melbourne’s undefeated start to the season has caught plenty of NBL pundits by surprise three weeks in.
The Phoenix wasted no time delighting their home fans to a big win over the Bullets last Sunday, piling on the points in a comfortable 20-point victory.
South East Melbourne are the odds-on favourites again as they prepare to face the Hawks in what looks to be the game of the round.
Lamelo Ball and the Hawks got their first win on the board last week in a narrow one-point victory over the Taipans. It was a Monday night thriller that came right down to the wire as Todd Blanchfield led the way with a big 20-point performance.
The Phoenix did a great job last week holding the Bullets to just seven three-pointers from 25 attempts. Considering these teams have never played eachother before, back South East Melbourne to keep the good times rolling.
Tip: Back South East Melbourne to Cover the Line
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday October 20, 3:00pm, Spark Arena
The Breakers head home on Sunday for the second game of their Round 3 doubleheader against the Kings.
It’s a short turnaround for both sides, but the bookies are still in favour of the ladder leaders as they look to keep their impressive record against the Breakers in check.
The Kings have won five straight games over New Zealand dating back to the beginning of last season, and with an impressive 4-2 record as the away favourite at the line over the last 12 months, its difficult to fade Sydney in the market.
New Zealand hasn’t won a home game against Sydney since 2017, so considering their late start to the season and minimal rest, stick with the favourites.
Tip: Back the Kings to Cover the Line
Sunday October 20, 5:00pm, Melbourne Arena
If this game turns out anything like Round 1’s Grand Final rematch, we should be in for a real treat.
The Wildcats held on for a narrow one-point win over Melbourne a fortnight ago, but that still hasn’t been enough to sway the bookies with United at home this time around.
Perth has now won their last three games over Melbourne, but there’s something to be said about a well-rested United side fresh from a week off.
The Wildcats hardly had a challenge last week at home against the Hawks, while Melbourne can take plenty of faith in the fact they shot a whopping 71% from the field when these two met in Round 1.
With that in mind, back United to get a little revenge on the reigning champs.
Tip: Back Melbourne to Win @ $1.75
Monday October 21, 7:30pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Hawks headline Monday night for the second week in a row as they hope to keep the good times rolling against the 36ers.
Both sides roll into this one on little rest, which could pave the way for a low-scoring game.
Adelaide has won three of their last five meetings against the Hawks, but considering both teams have looked very inconsistent so far, this is probably a game worth steering clear of.
Tip: No Bet
It is a huge weekend in the NBL and there are seven games spread across four days.
The Perth Wildcats are the only unbeaten team left in the NBL this season, while every side has recorded at least one victory.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018/2019 NBL Round 3 tips can be found below.
Thursday October 25, 7:50pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
The Brisbane Bullets may have the homecourt advantage, but it is the Perth Wildcats that will start this game as clear favourites.
Brisbane were no match for Perth when these two sides met last weekend and it really doesn’t get much easier for them.
The Bullets have won four of their past eight games as home underdogs for a profit, but their overall record at home is poor and they are tough to trust from a betting perspective.
Perth have never really looked like winning a game this season and winning on the road isn’t an issue for them.
They have won five of their past eight games as away favourites, but they are only a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market does look to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Friday October 26, 7:50pm, Cairns Convention Centre
This is another game where the away side are set to start as favourites.
Winning in Cairns has not been an issue for the Adelaide 36ers in recent seasons and it is no real surprise that they are set to start this game as favourites.
Adelaide have won two of their past three games as away favourites, but they covered the line in only one of those wins.
The Cairns Taipans produced a fairly flat performance against the Illawarra Hawks last weekend and they have won only one of their past four games against the 36ers.
Cairns are a middling 6-6 at home over the past 12 months and the Cairns Convention Centre is not the fortress that it should be.
Adelaide are a safe bet to return to winning form following their narrow loss at the hands of Melbourne United.
Back Adelaide To Win @ $1.77
Saturday October 27, 3:00pm, Perth Arena
This is is easily the game of the round and is set to be a highly competitive affair.
It is Perth that will go into this game as favourites, but it is Melbourne United that have won the past two games played between the two sides.
The Perth Arena is not the fortress that it once was and the Wildcats have won only seven of their past 13 games as home favourites.
Melbourne United returned to winning form with a fighting victory over Adelaide United and there is little doubt that they will be contenders once again.
They have won four of their past eight games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are great value to score another upset win.
Back Melbourne United To Win @ $2.05
Saturday October 27, 7:50pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
The Illawarra Hawks recorded their first win of the season with a comfortable victory over the Cairns Taipans last weekend and they will start this clash with the Brisbane Bullets as clear favorites.
Illawarra have won seven of their eight games against Brisbane since the Bullets returned to the NBL in 2016, but their recent record at home is not convincing.
They have won only six of their past 14 games as home favourites and winning back-to-back games is a struggle.
Brisbane have not won at WIN Entertainment Centre since they returned to the NBL, but they generally perform better on the road than the market expects.
The Bullets have covered the line in eight of their past 14 games as away underdogs and it would not surprise to see them give the Hawks a scare in this contest.
Back Brisbane To Cover The Line (+3.5 Points)
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday October 28, 12:20pm, Spark Arena
The New Zealand Breakers were flogged by the Sydney Kings last weekend and it has been a troubling start to the season for the Kiwis.
They face an Adelaide 36ers outfit that has won the past three games played between the two sides and has a strong record on the road.
The Breakers have won only seven of their past 14 games as home favourites and their record against the line is poor, while the 36ers have proven to be a profitable betting play as away underdogs.
Adelaide are more than capable of winning than game and I like them at the line with a start of 2.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Cover The Line (+2.5 Points)
Sunday October 28, 2:50pm, Qudos Bank Arena
The Sydney Kings were finally able to record their first win of the Andrew Bogut era last weekend, but they need to keep winning to take the pressure off coach Andrew Gaze.
Things did seem to finally click for the Kings in that game against the New Zealand Breakers and they face a Cairns Taipans side that is on the quick back-up.
Sydney have won five of their past six games against Cairns and the home side has won ten of the past 12 games played between the two sides.
The Kings do look like one of the safest betting plays of the weekend and they should be able to cover the line of 5.5 points comfortably.
Back Sydney To Cover The Line (-5.5 Points)
Monday October 29, 7:50pm, Melbourne Arena
Melbourne United are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend.
Melbourne have won five of their past six games against the Illawarra Hawks and they have now won 16 of their past 19 games as home favourites, while they are 11-1-7 against the line in that scenario.
In saying that, Illawarra saved their best basketball for the road last season and they have won six of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a huge profit.
This is another game that the market looks to have just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
It has been a very interesting start to the NBL season.
The first round of the season was packed full of close finishes, while round two was dominated by the likes of the Adelaide 36ers putting up some very big scores.
We had four winning bets from our four tips in the NBL last weekend and we are confident that we can continue our excellent start to the season, so don’t miss out 2017 NBL Round 3 tips that can be found below.
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday October 19, 5:30pm, Spark Arena
New Zealand Breakers 90 - Sydney Kings 73
This will be the second meeting between the New Zealand Breakers and the Sydney Kings in less than a week.
It was New Zealand that recorded a narrow win over Sydney last weekend, but it is still the Kings that will go into this clash as narrow favourites.
The Breakers have proven to be a winning betting play at home over the past 12 months and they have covered the line in nine of their past 15 games at home.
Sydney recorded their first win of the season against the Illawarra Hawks on Sunday, but in the process they lost captain Kevin Lisch for two months.
Lisch is a massive loss for the Kings and his absence will definitely test the depth of the Kings roster.
Sydney have won just two of their past seven games as away favourites and taking them on in this scenario has been a highly profitable play.
We backed the Breakers to beat the Kings last weekend and we will be sticking with that strategy once again.
Back New Zealand To Win @ $1.95
Friday October 20, 7:30pm, Brisbane Entertainment Centre
Brisbane Bullets 83 - Cairns Taipans 78
The Brisbane Bullets have returned to Australia after they were beaten by the Phoenix Suns in the United States last weekend.
Brisbane started their NBL season with a loss at the hands of the Perth Wildcats and they have now won only one of their past eight games.
The Bullets will go into this clash as favourites, but their record in this position last season was particularly poor – they won only one of their seven games as home favourites.
The Cairns Taipans came crashing back to earth when they were absolutely flogged by the Adelaide 36ers last Thursday night.
They are a much better side than that performance suggests and their record away from home is actually underrated.
Cairns have won six of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are 7-6 against the line in this scenario.
I am keen to take on the Bullets in this clash and the Taipans are a great bet to record an upset win.
Back Cairns To Win @ $2.20
Friday October 20, 9:30pm, Perth Arena
Perth Wildcats 89 - Melbourne United 84
The Perth Wildcats have made an excellent start to the NBL season and they will start this clash with Melbourne United as clear favourites.
Perth never looked like losing against either the Brisbane Bullets or the Illawarra Hawks and they are always very tough to beat at home – they have won 11 of their past 15 games as home favourites and they are 9-6 against the line in this scenario.
Melbourne United have now played and beaten the Adelaide 36ers on two occasions this season and they have shown they can win on the road.
Beating Perth in Perth is a much tougher challenge.
Perth have won the past four games played between these two sides and it is rare that I want to take on the Wildcats in front of their home fans.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Saturday October 21, 5:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
Adelaide 36ers 114 - Sydney Kings 84
It has been an up and down start to the NBL season for the Adelaide 36ers, but they will go into this clash with the Sydney Kings as clear favourites.
Adelaide have suffered a pair of defeats at the hands of Melbourne United, but in between those defeats they recorded big wins over both the Sydney Kings and the Cairns Taipans.
The 36ers have won eight of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 7-5 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney are on the quick back-up after playing the New Zealand Breakers on Thursday night and there is no doubt this is a tricky fixture for them.
The Kings have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss and their record against the line in this situation is no better.
This is a game that Adelaide really should win and the line of 3.5 points will not be enough.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)
New Zealand Breakers
Sunday October 22, 3:00pm, Hisense Arena
Melbourne United 76 - New Zealand Breakers 88
Melbourne United are the shortest-priced favourites in the NBL this weekend.
This will be the first game that Melbourne United play at home this season and they were generally tough to beat in front of their home fans last season.
Melbourne won seven of their ten games as home favourites for a narrow profit and their record against the line in this scenario was identical.
The belief that the New Zealand Breakers struggle to win on this side of the Tasman is something of a myht.
New Zealand have won five of their past 12 games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are 7-5 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Sunday October 22, 5:30pm, WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks 105 - Brisbane Bullets 96
The Illawarra Hawks are still chasing their first win of the season, but they will go into this clash with the Brisbane Bullets as clear favourites.
Illawarra have suffered defeats at the hands of the Cairns Taipans, Perth Wildcats and Sydney Kings, but to be fair this is their first home game of the season.
The Hawks have won seven of their past 12 games as home favourites for a loss and they are a poor 5-7 against the line.
Brisbane lost all four of their games against Illawarra last season and their record away from home makes it tough to back them with any real conviction.
The Bullets have won only three of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a clear loss and they are a poor 4-9 against the line in this scenario.
Neither of these teams can be trusted from a betting perspective and this is another clash I will be staying out of.
Sunday October 20, 7:00pm, Cairns Convention Centre
Cairns Taipans 90 - Perth Wildcats 69
The Cairns Taipans may have the homecourt advantage, but it is the Perth Wildcats that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Perth lost the only game they started as away favourites last season and they have won only five of their past 15 games against Cairns in Cairns.
Cairns won all three of their games as home underdogs last season for a big profit and they have won five of their past nine games against the Wildcats in this scenario.
I am always keen to back Cairns in front of their home fans and they are one of the best value bets of the weekend.
Back Cairns To Win @ $2.25
It is a big few days for the Brisbane Bullets as they attempt to find their footing in their return to the NBL.
They face a tough roadtrip to Melbourne on Thursday for their clash with Melbourne United before they host the New Zealand Breakers in front of their home fans on Saturday.
This is an action-packed round in the NBL and you can find our thoughts as well as potential betting plays for every single game below!
New Zealand Breakers
Thursday October 20, 5:30pm, North Shore Events Centre
New Zealand Breakers 78 - Sydney Kings 92
The New Zealand Breakers were only narrowly beaten by the Perth Wildcats on Sunday and they will start this clash with the Sydney Kings as clear favourites.
New Zealand have won their past four games against Sydney and it is no secret that their record as home favourites is nothing short of outstanding – they are 12-3 in head-to-head betting and are 9-6 against the line in this scenario.
Sydney were the form team in round two of the NBL season and they were able to record impressive victories over both Illawarra and Cairns.
The Kings still have a very poor recent record away from home and they have won just two of their past 15 games as away underdogs, but they are a profitable 8-7 against the line.
New Zealand should be able to get the job done in front of their home fans and they are a safe bet at their current quote of $1.65.
Back New Zealand To Win @ $1.65
Thursday October 20, 7:30pm, Hisense Arena
Melbourne United 78 - Brisbane Bullets 70
Melbourne United have bounced back from their slow start to the season to beat Adelaide and Illawarra and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
The way that they won both those games was particularly impressive and this is the type of basketball that the majority of experts expected to see from Melbourne this season.
The problem for Melbourne is that they have won just ten of their past 15 games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are a poor 6-9 against the line in this scenario.
Brisbane suffered their first loss of the seasons at the hands of the Adelaide 36ers, but there was still plenty of merit in the performance.
They showed against Sydney that they are more than capable of winning on the road and I am very keen to back them with a start of 5.5 points.
Back Brisbane To Beat The Line (+5.5 Points)
Friday October 21, 7:30pm, Titanium Security Arena
Adelaide 36ers 83 - Cairns Taipans 67
The Adelaide 36ers have been one of the most inconsistent sides during the NBL season to date and they will start this game with Cairns as clear favourites.
Adelaide showed plenty of tenacity to beat Brisbane on Sunday night and at their best they are arguably the most exciting team in the competition.
The 36ers have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 7-4 against the line in this scenario.
Cairns have made a slow start to their NBL season and it does not get any easier against Adelaide.
The Taipans have won just one of their past 13 games as away underdogs for a heavy loss and their record against the line is an extremely poor 3-10.
Adelaide will win this game comfortably and they are a safe bet to cover the line of 5.5 points.
Back Adelaide To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
Friday October 21, 9:30pm, Perth Arena
Perth Wildcats 80 - Illawarra Hawks 73
It has been a dramatic start to the season for the Perth Wildcats and they parted company with import Jaron Johnson after just three games.
The Wildcats will still go into this clash with Illawarra as clear favourites and it is no secret just how dominate they are at Perth Arena – they have won 17 of their past 19 games as home favourites and they are 11-2-6 against the line in this situation.
Illawarra looked the goods in their season opener against Adelaide, but they have since suffered defeats at the hands of Sydney and Melbourne.
They have won just two of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are a very poor 3-8 against the line in this situation.
I expect Perth to come out and make a statement this weekend, which suggests that the line of 6.5 points will not be enough.
Back Perth To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
New Zealand Breakers
Saturday October 22, 7:30pm, Brisbane Convention Centre
Brisbane Bullets 88 - New Zealand Breakers 82
Brisbane are still chasing their first win at the Brisbane Convention Centre after suffering an overtime defeat at the hands of Adelaide last weekend.
There have still been plenty of positives for the Bullets in their return to the NBL – they lead the competition in rebounds – and they really should only improve as they get further into the season.
Both these teams are on the quick back-up after playing on Thursday night, but the Breakers’ have also had international travel in between.
New Zealand have won three of their past ten games as away underdogs for a narrow loss, but they have actually been 5-1-4 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am more than happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Sunday October 23, 3:00pm, Hisense Arena
Melbourne United 69 - Perth Wildcats 72
Melbourne United look to have a clear advantage in this game as they have not done any travel this round, while the Wildcats are not only on the back-up but have had to travel from Perth.
In saying that, it has already been made clear that Melbourne United are far from the most consistent team in front of their home fans.
Melbourne United do actually have a strong record against Perth and the Wildcats have one just one of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 3-5 against the line.
This is almost a perfect scenario for Melbourne United and they should be able to get the job done.
Back Melbourne United To Win @ $1.60
Monday October 24, 7:30pm, Qudos Bank Arena
Sydney Kings 90 - Illawarra Hawks 73
This is the second meeting between the Sydney Kings and Illawarra Hawks this season after Sydney upstaged the Hawks last week.
Andrew Gaze looks to have already made some positive strides with Sydney and there is no doubt that he is keen to turn Qudos Bank Arena into a fortress.
The Kings have won four of their past five games as home favourites for a cleat profit and they have an identical record against the line.
Illawarra were able to Sydney away from home last season, but this is a much stronger Sydney outfit.
The Hawks have won just two of their past 11 games as away underdogs for a clear loss, while they are 3-8 against the line in this scenario.
Back Sydney To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)