All eyes might be on the race to the playoffs, but there is something much bigger brewing towards the bottom of the NFL standings.
Miami’s recent two-game winning streak has thrown the race for next year’s first overall draft pick into chaos as the Dolphins, Jets, Giants and Falcons all sit with two wins apiece.
Elsewhere, there are plenty of storylines building as a sudden rush of previous no-hopers have entered playoff calculations. The Steelers, Bears and Titans have all thrown their name back into the hat of potential contenders, making the final dash to the finish even more intriguing.
After the Niners were handed their first loss in overtime last week, it’s safe to say anything goes in 2019. Here’s a look at the our best bets ahead of Week 11.
Friday 15 November, 12:20pm, FirstEnergy Stadium
Browns 21 - Steelers 7
Thursday Night Football often turns into a fizzer, but this time we could be in for a tight tussle between two division rivals.
Pittsburgh’s four-game winning streak has thrown a real spanner in the works of the playoff picture. It’s crazy to think that only three weeks ago we were locking the Steelers in for a Top 10 draft pick, but thanks to a very convincing win over the Rams at home, Pittsburgh now holds a 56% chance of making the playoffs.
The reason for the Steelers’ sudden turnaround has been the defence. Passing the ball against Pittsburgh has been almost impossible this season as Minkah Fitzpatrick continues to haunt opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers now rank second in takeaways behind the Patriots while the pass rush has also accounted for the third-most sacks.
Cleveland’s season received a nice little boost in the form of a 19-16 win over the Bills. It would take a miracle for the Browns to make the playoffs from here, although they will be looking for some late bragging rights at home.
Sometimes these Thursday Night games can be a little tough to predict, but not this one. Cleveland ranks fifth in turnovers due to their offensive line, which spells disaster against one of the best defences in the league. Pittsburgh has won eight of their last 10-games against the Browns, so take the generous odds the bookies are offering and run.
Tip: Back the Steelers to Win @ $2.30
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, M&T Bank Stadium
Ravens 41 - Texans 7
Game of the week and maybe even, game of the year.
This could turn out to be a potential AFC Championship Game preview between two of the most exciting teams in the league.
Houston, now at 6-3, will be hoping to extend their winning streak to three as they tackle an equally impressive 7-2 Ravens team that has won five games on the trot.
Lamar Jackson has firmed into the second-favourite in MVP betting following last week’s antics.
Jackson finished with 223 passing yards and three touchdowns, as well as a dazzling 47-yard scramble for six in a blowout win over the Bengals.
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is also capable of making big plays with his feet, which makes this match up even more juicy. Unfortunately, these two teams are among the best in the league when it comes to defending the run, which could limit the big plays from either quarterback.
The Ravens have won eight of their last 10-games over the Texans and two of their last three. More importantly however, Houston has never won a game on the road in Baltimore.
Our bookies are expecting this one to be somewhat high scoring with a 49.5-point Total set. Exactly 75% of Houston’s road games have gone Over this season, making the double a worthwhile play.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Win & Over 49.5 Total Points @ $2.35
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, US Bank Stadium
Vikings 27 - Broncos 23
The NFC North remains anyone’s best guess as the Vikings find themselves just a game behind the Packers.
Minnesota will need to ensure they win from here on out if they wish to claim the division crown, and with a very winnable home game in hand against the Broncos this week, the Vikings certainly have every opportunity to place more pressure on their rivals in Green Bay.
Brad Zimmer’s side played one hell of a game last week in Dallas. It wasn’t a particularly convincing performance from quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the defence more than made up for it by holding the Cowboys to only 50 rushing yards and two crucial stops on fourth down in the final minute of the game.
The Vikings have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all year, which should come in handy against the always dangerous Phillip Lindsay.
Denver returns from a bye week at 3-6, but it’s difficult to find any faith in the Broncos’ 1-3 record on the road, especially with Brandon Allen under center. The Vikings are 3-1 against the spread at home this year, so take Minnesota to win comfortably.
Tip: Back the Vikings to Cover the Line (-10 Points) @ $1.92
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, Ford Field
Lions 27 - Cowboys 35
The status of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford makes this game a risky mid-week bet.
Detroit looked completely lost last week in Chicago as Jeff Driskel completed only 27 of his 46 pass attempts. The fact the Lions decided to drop back that many times with a second-year backup under center was concerning in its own right, and it could spell disaster if Detroit employs a similar strategy against Dallas.
Of course, the Cowboys have their own problems to address as the playoffs continue to move out of reach. Dallas lost at home to the Vikings last week in a perplexing game from a playcalling standpoint, making every game from here on out a must-win as the Eagles sit equal at 5-4.
The Lions are a much different side with Stafford on the field, but with his status “day by day, week to week” according to head coach Matt Patricia, it’s hard to feel confident in putting any money on either team.
Tip: No Bet
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Colts 33 - Jaguars 13
Don’t look now, but the AFC South is pretty wild.
The Texans sit atop at 6-3, followed closely by the 5-4 Colts, the 5-5 Titans and the 4-5 Jags.
Indianapolis has to feel a little hard done by as they’ve suddenly lost two consecutive games. The Colts became the Dolphins’ latest victim last week losing 16-12 at home, largely due to Brian Hoyer’s awful day under centre.
The news look positive on the Jacoby Brissett front as head coach Frank Reich expects him to return from a knee injury. The Colts are an entirely different team with Brissett at quarterback, making them real value head-to-head if the first-year starter returns.
Over their last 10-games these two sides have won five apiece. Jacksonville last won in Indianapolis back in 2017 and have since then beaten the Colts twice.
The Jags return from the bye week well-rested, but this is a serious ‘line in the sand’ game for both teams. With the Texans pulling away atop the South, it’s worth backing the defences to do the talking in a low-scoring game.
Tip: Under 44 Total Points @ $1.92
New York Jets
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, FedEx Field
Redskins 17 - Jets 34
The AFC and NFC’s Eastern bottom dwellers meet this week in a game that holds very little excitement.
Washington returns from the bye at 1-8, but will the Redskins actually play to win on Monday?
Tanking is a hot topic this time of year and the Skins are among the frontrunners for a top five pick. Likewise, you can also throw the Jets into that category, but after a win over the rival Giants last week, there’s nothing to say New York won’t be out to make up for lost time.
These two sides last got together back in 2015, a game the Jets won 34-20 at home. Surprisingly, the bookies are favouring the Redskins at home, but if New York’s defence can play like it did last week and force another pair of turnovers, there’s no reason the Jets can’t win their third game of the season.
Tip: Back the Jets to Win @ $2.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, Raymond James Stadium
Bucs 17 - Saints 34
Was the Saints’ loss to the Falcons last week anything to worry about?
From a playoff perspective, probably not. New Orleans still remains two games in front of the second-place Panthers, and while the defence was carved up by Matt Ryan, it’s easy to forget just how talented the Falcons offence is.
Things turned out a lot better for Tampa Bay last week as the Bucs beat the Cardinals in a 30-27 thriller. Jameis Winston (literally) tried his best to throw the game away but running back Ronald Jones had other ideas helping his team improve to 3-6.
The NFC South is the Saints’ to lose and we’ve typically seen them bounce-back strongly from a previous loss. Since 2015, New Orleans has covered the spread in 16 of their 26 games after a loss the week prior.
Tip: Back the Saints to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.92
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins 20 - Bills 37
Have we got this all wrong? Are the Dolphins actually tanking?
Two wins on the trot has Miami in danger of, well… not securing the number one pick.
The Dolphins now own wins over the Jets and the Colts as they set their sights on another AFC rival this week – the luckless Bills.
Buffalo lost their third game of the season last week to the Jets, and while it mightn’t seem like too much of a big deal, it is when you factor in potential home-field advantage against the Chiefs in the second AFC Wild Card seed.
The good news is Buffalo has won two of its last three games of the Dolphins. Offensively, the Bills are struggling for points in the bottom ten of the league, but the defence is still capable of winning games against much weaker opponents.
Buffalo has allowed the third-fewest yards and points this year. The bookies have reacted accordingly setting a 41-point Total, but that looks a little low considering how confident the Dolphins’ offence has looked in recent weeks.
The Bills have been money against fellow AFC East opponents covering the spread in four of their last five games. The double looks good money here on a somewhat high-scoring Buffalo bounce-back.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) & Over 41.5 Total Points @ $3.80
Monday 18 November, 5:00am, Bank of America Stadium
Panthers 3 - Falcons 29
Normally this is the sort of game that goes a long way to determining the NFC South, but this time around there’s nothing more than bragging rights on the line.
The Panthers currently have an 18% chance of making the playoffs following last week’s loss to Green Bay. Kyle Allen performed exceptionally well in the freezing conditions, but the same can’t be said for the defence as Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones picked apart the Panthers’ interior.
Despite their 5-4 record, Carolina is still favoured to win this game by 5.5 points. Bookmakers are clearly factoring in Atlanta’s upset over the Saints last week, but can we expect another shocker?
Atlanta’s defence has been terrible all season ranking Top 10 in passing and rushing touchdowns allowed. Last week’s result over the Saints was more a case of the Falcons’ talented offensive players enjoying a big game, which could cause some similar problems this week for Carolina.
The Falcons have won seven of their last 10-games against the Panthers and are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven. Atlanta beat the Panthers comfortably 24-10 on the road last year, and while this game will likely be much closer, it’s worth sticking with the Falcons offence to do the talking even if Christian McCaffrey piles on plenty of points.
Tip: Back the Falcons to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.92
San Francisco 49ers
Monday 18 November, 8:05am, Levi’s Stadium
49ers 36 - Cardinals 26
Nothing stings more than an overtime loss to your division rivals.
The 49ers are no longer undefeated after falling to the Seahawks 27-24 last week. On one hand, the Niners now have plenty of work to do if they wish to secure the NFC West, while on the other, they no longer have the burden of being the only undefeated team in the league.
Another divisional game awaits this week as San Francisco hosts the Cardinals. There’s nothing pretty about Arizona’s 3-6-1 record, or their three-game losing streak. But if you’ve paid attention to the Cardinals over the last fortnight, you’ll know Kliff Kingsbury’s side is on the verge of a big win.
The Cardinals came very close to upsetting the Niners only two weeks ago at home. A late fourth quarter comeback fell short by three points, while Arizona also fell by a similar margin to the Bucs last week in Tampa Bay.
Playing in San Francisco is never easy, especially against a hungry defence looking to make amends. That said, the Cardinals offence has already shown they can put up points against the Niners, which makes the 11.5-point line look very tempting.
Jimmy Garoppolo had a horror game last week throwing for only 248-yards and a touchdown. Several passes in overtime were nearly picked, and with his favourite tight end George Kittle set for another weekened on the sidelines, there’s every reason to believe in Arizona’s 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Cover the Line (+11 Points) @ $1.92
Monday 18 November, 8:25am, Oakland Coliseum
Raiders 17 - Bengals 10
Would you believe this is only the third time the Raiders have been favoured by double-digits since 2003?
Oakland stands a 40% chance of making the playoffs on the heels of last week’s win over the Chargers, but Jon Gruden’s men need to ensure they take the winless Bengals seriously on Monday.
Cincinnati’s lackluster defensive line was torn apart by the Ravens last week. The Raiders don’t possess the same kind of offensive talent as Baltimore, but this could still turn out to be a big game from Josh Jacobs against one of the worst rush defences in the league.
The Bengals have won six of their last eight games over the Raiders, although a lot has changed since these two sides last met last season.
Oakland’s calling card this season has been their defence. The Raiders have been outstanding against the run allowing the eighth-fewest yards, and it just so happens Bengals running back Joe Mixon is currently questionable with an ankle sprain.
A.J. Green’s status also remains a mystery, making it almost impossible to back the Bengals this week. That said, double-digit spreads and the Raiders don’t exactly go hand in hand, so don’t rule out the Bengals from keeping this close.
Tip: Back the Bengals to Cover the Line (+10 Points) @ $1.92
New England Patriots
Monday 18 November, 8:25am, Lincoln Financial Field
Eagles 10 - Patriots 17
The Patriots have been installed as 3.5-point favourites this week as they hope to bounce-back from their loss to the Ravens before the bye.
New England’s defence proved no match for the ground game in Baltimore, but with a week to get things right, you just know Bill Belichick’s side will be looking to make a statement at home.
The Patriots remain unbeaten at home, but they will have their hands full with the in-form Eagles. This isn’t a must-win game for Philadelphia, but plenty rides on the result as the Eagles find themselves tied at 5-4 alongside the Cowboys in the East.
Philly’s most famous win over the Patriots came during Super Bowl LII, but believe it or not, if there’s one last thing to hang your hat on, it’s this: since 2015, the Patriots are 7-1 against the spread following the bye.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.92
Los Angeles Rams
Monday 18 November, 12:20pm, LA Coliseum
Rams 17 - Bears 7
This is far and away the most fascinating game of Week 11 as both teams still stand a very minor chance of making the playoffs.
For Chicago, last week’s win over Detroit was important for a number of reasons. Aside from getting the wood over their division rival, the Bears also improved to 4-5 to remain firmly in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, weren’t quite so fortunate as the Rams lost a stinker to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Jared Goff’s lost season continued as the Rams’ multi-million-dollar man threw for only 243-yards and two interceptions. The Rams’ shoddy offensive line made life almost impossible against one of the best defences in the league, making life near impossible for Los Angeles at 5-4.
Nobody would blame you if chose to steer clear of this game entirely. For those game punters looking to turn a profit, however, look no further than the Under.
The Bears offence was made to look better than it actually is last week against a below average Lions defence. Throw in the Rams’ offensive line and Goff’s accuracy issues, and you have the makings for a low-scoring game.
The Total has also gone Under in four of Los Angeles’ last five games and four of Chicago’s last six on the road. It’s a low Total, but don’t be surprised if this one turns into a stalemate.
Tip: Under 41.5 Total Points @ $1.92
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday 19 November, 12:15pm, Estadio Azteca
You should’ve had this one circled on your calendar long ago – it’s just a shame the Chargers haven’t lived up to their end of the bargain.
After manhandling the Packers a fortnight ago, Los Angeles backed up their big performance with a narrow two-point loss to the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.
It’s going to take something extra special for Los Angeles to make the playoffs from here, but they can at least inch a little bit closer against their division rivals this week at home.
The Chiefs also have plenty to play as they look to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Titans. Having Patrick Mahomes back under center was a welcome sign, but the more time that goes on, the more painfully clear it becomes that the Chiefs can’t stop the run.
Los Angeles’ offence is a complete guessing game from week to week with Philip Rivers completing most of his passes to the other team. That said, the Chargers’ ground game has shown real signs of life since Melvin Gordon returned, which should create havoc against Kansas City’s defensive line.
Gordon has averaged close to 60-yards per-game against the Chiefs throughout his career, making this one a potential Monday Night upset.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line (+4.0 Points) @ $1.88
Name something more iconic than Week 11 in the NFL, we’ll wait.
This is the main course, – the piece de reistance – a.k.a, the week that should separate the contenders from the pretenders and hopefully give us a clear glimpse into the playoff picture.
The Bills, Browns, Dolphins Jets, Patriots, and 49ers all take a seat this week, but really, one question remains: who should you be backing and sacking?
We’ve not only previewed all 13 games, we’ve also taken a close look at each team in our full 2018 NFL Week 11 Preview below!
Green Bay Packers
Friday 18 November, 12:20pm, CenturyLink Field
Seattle 27 – Green Bay 24
Seattle Seahawks (4-5):
The Seahawks played about as well as you can against the Rams last week, at least for about 3.5 quarters, anyway.
It took Seattle — led by a brilliant drive from Russell Wilson – six plays to find Nick Vannett for the opening touchdown. In the end the Seahawks lost by two touchdowns, but the scoreboard hardly reflects how close Seattle came to pulling off the upset.
In a nutshell, Seattle continue to improve each week. They look up and about, and for the first time all season, so does the running game.
After drafting Rashaad Penny in the first-round, only to watch him warm the pine for more than two and a half months, the rookie broke through with 108-yards and a touchdown against LA’s elite defensive line.
There was also plenty of creativity on the playcalling front, with screens and tosses to wide receiver Tyler Lockett, while our very own Aussie, Michael Dickson, is also worth a mention.
Special teams makes or breaks games, and after 70-yard punt in the second quarter, the 22-year old backed it up with a booming kick to pin the Rams at the one-yard line in the fourth.
The only letdown for Seattle was two crucial mistakes: a sloppy onside kick, and poor protection on Dante Fowler’s strip-sack. This is a dangerous Seattle side that deserves a spot in the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers (4-4-1):
The Packers got themselves back to .500 thanks to a big win over the Dolphins last week, and for the most part, there was plenty of encouraging signs.
First and foremost, it’s taken two months to get to this point, but it’s great to see Aaron Jones being used in the red zone. The second-year back saw a season high 15 carries last week, good for 145-yards and a pair of scores.
Likewise, it was nice to see the Packers’ defence hold their own when the Dolphins threatened. Green Bay have been one of the better teams statistically when it comes to points against, and after holding Miami to just four field goals, it’s not hard to understand why.
There were some calls for concern though, particularly on special teams – which doesn’t bode well ahead of Green Bay’s trip to Seattle.
The Packers gave the Dolphins two great chances to score last week: one being on the back of a fumbled kick return, and the other being a blocked punt.
Against Pete Carroll’s skilled special teams unit, those mistakes will easily cost the Packers a win this week. And for that reason alone, the Seahawks are worth your money in a close one.
Tip: Back the Seahawks To Win 1-6 @ $3.75
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore 24 – Cincinnati 21
Baltimore Ravens (4-5):
A month ago the Ravens looked on their way to a playoff berth, now, it’s anyone’s guess.
At least the news on Joe Flacco is encouraging – the veteran quarterback will start in Week 11 if he’s healthy. Of course, you could make a case for the alternative, as backup rookie Lamar Jackson might be the spark the Ravens’ offense desperately needs.
If one thing is for sure, the Ravens enter this game against the Bengals as the favourite. Despite their struggles on offense, Baltimore have allowed the second-fewest passing yards this season, and have also been quite handy when it comes to stopping the run.
The Bengals have won two straight over the Ravens, including a 34-23 loss in Week 2, but Baltimore doesn’t need anything special to win this game. Sound, mistake-free defence will be enough to rattle the Bengals offensive line.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4):
How do the wheels fall off a team with a winning record you ask? Simple: don’t play defence.
Cincinnati fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin on Tuesday following last week’s 51-14 loss to the Saints. The Bengals’ defence ranks Top 5 in passing yards and rushing yards allowed this season, and as we suggested last week, the numbers don’t lie – Cincy were always due for major regression.
With seven weeks left to play, the Bengals might look a question mark, but really, this isn’t hard to figure out.
The firing of Austin leaves head coach Marvin Lewis as the replacement defensive coordinator, and after hiring former Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson on the same day, this already has disaster written all over it.
Cincinnati are 8-17 in their last 25 games against the Ravens on the road, so really, there’s not much else to say here. The only consolation is the Bengals play the Browns (twice) and the Raiders in the coming month.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Beat The Line
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, Mercedes Benz Stadium
Atlanta 19 – Dallas 22
Atlanta Falcons (4-5):
False alarm, the Falcons aren’t who we thought they were.
It was tough to read too much into their Week 9 win over the Redskins, and as we saw last week, Atlanta were exposed as pretenders.
More specifically though, it was the defence that provided the letdown. The Falcons’ have had a tough time defending the pass, but it was the ground game that tormented Atlanta last week, led by Browns rookie running back Nick Chubb, who finished with 176-yards and a touchdown to his name.
Atlanta have a lot going for them offensively – in fact, they rank sixth in the league in points scored. They hold a handy 5-2 record against Dallas as well, but will that be enough to challenge Dallas’ defence, a unit sky-high on confidence right now?
If Ezekiel Elliott has anything to say about it, probably not.
Dallas Cowboys (4-5):
A week ago head coach Jason Garrett looked well on the hotseat, but after knocking off the reigning Super Bowl champs (in Philly mind you), who knows where this Cowboys team is heading.
We could talk about Ezekiel Elliott and his 151-yard game, but how about Dallas’ secondary?
It was physical, fierce, and intimidating, particularly when it mattered most. The Cowboys’ corners and safeties bullied the Eagles’ receivers all game, forcing Carson Wentz to take chances and force throws into tight windows.
The result was a 27-20 win, but it was so much more than that. The Cowboys’ o-line picked up the blitz and bought plenty of time for Dak Prescott, and would you believe it, Garrett actually came up with some ballsy playcalls!
Whether it was a fake punt or Dak’s quarterback sneak, the Cowboys kept the Eagles guessing, which is exactly what we’ve needed from Dallas all season.
It also helps when you can hand the ball off to Zeke and run it down your opponent’s throat, while at the same time holding your own with the Eagles threatening in the red zone. Now the question becomes, can Dallas do it all again?
Tip: Back the Cowboys To Win @ $2.50
New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
NY Giants 38 – Tampa 35
New York Giants (2-7):
Odell Beckham Jr. still likes his team’s chances at a playoff berth following last week’s come-from-behind win over the 49ers, but what chance do the Giants really have against the Bucs?
If you thought Eli Manning played a great game last week in San Francisco, get in line, you couldn’t be more wrong.
The two-time Super Bowl champ was lucky head coach Pat Shurmur knew how to manage the clock, because Eli’s overthrown passes on the final drive nearly cost the Giants the game.
Fortunately though, floating balls against the Bucs secondary won’t worry New York. Tampa Bay are still one of the worst defensive teams in the league when it comes to stopping the pass, and it just so happens, they’ve also allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns.
The focus for New York will be simple: give the ball to Saquon Barkley and look for Evan Engram in the flat since OBJ will likely draw plenty of coverage.
The Giants are 5-1 at home against Tampa Bay, so taking them at the line looks the play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6):
For some strange reason the Bucs were the favourites last week against Washington.
Looking back, that might have been the storyline of the week considering Tampa Bay managed 501-yards of total offense but simply couldn’t stop turning the ball over.
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions last week, but the scary part is, he’ll receive the start again this over Jameis Winston on Sunday.
It’s becoming painfully clear that the Bucs are quite happy to keep Winston – who is supposedly their quarterback of the future – on the sidelines to remain healthy. He’s due $20 million next year, while in the mean-time, the Bucs continue to tank.
The defence is gassed, the coach is on the way out the door, and the Bucs have a 1-7 record in their last eight road games. Do we need to say more?
Tip: Back the Giants to Beat The Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.91
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, TIAA Bank Field
Jacksonville 16 – Pittsburgh 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6):
It only took the Colts seven plays to score last week, and from there, the Jaguars were always on the back foot.
To be fair, Jacksonville answered on a perfect 80-yard seam route to Donte Moncrief on the next drive, but for the fifth week in a row, it’s blatantly clear that there is something wrong in the locker room with this team.
In particular, the defence looks a mess. Blown assignments were commonplace against the Colts, as Andrew Luck had time for a cup of coffee in the pocket while he peeled off large chunks of yards.
It all comes down to communication, and that’s clearly what Jacksonville are missing. You can’t blame last week’s loss on Blake Bortles – he threw for 320-yards and two scores remember – no, it’s all on the defence and a few costly mistakes.
At the start of the year this looked a game that could likely to decide the AFC playoff picture. One disgruntled defence later, you can’t even think about backing the Jags.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1):
Note to self: don’t ever write off the Steelers in the month of November.
In the matter of two weeks the AFC North has gone from anyone’s guess to complete meltdown mode, and wouldn’t you know it, Pittsburgh unscathed with what is likely to be the third seed in the playoffs.
It would take a miracle to lose the stranglehold on the division from here, and although Le’Veon Bell won’t be reporting for duty next week (or the rest of the season for that matter), Pittsburgh should feel pretty good about their chances against a Jacksonville team that can’t take a trick.
The Steelers reverted back to the tried and true method of pocket pressure last week in their win over the Panthers, and boy did it work. Pittsburgh held Cam Newton in check both in the air and on the ground, and if the pass rush executes again this week against Blake Bortles, we’re probably looking at a blowout.
Tip: Back the Steelers 13-18 @ $6.00
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, FedEx Field
Washington 21 – Houston 23
Washington Redskins (6-3):
They won’t win any awards for best performance, but they will win the NFC East at this rate.
Washington’s beatdown of the Bucs last week saw them earn a two-game lead in the division, a crucial advantage at this point in the year. Whether or not the Redskins stand a chance in the playoffs is a completely different conversation, but right now, the Skins are a tough team to beat.
Father time has been kind to Washington, something not a lot of teams can attest to. Adrian Peterson again rushed for 60-plus yards last week, carrying the weight of the team squarely on his back.
It’s fitting both of these unconvincing playoff bound teams meet this week, but it’s tough to back against the Redskins and their 6-2 record at home.
Houston Texans (6-3):
Houston’s six-game winning streak makes them a serious dark horse heading toward the playoffs, and with a 3-2 record on the road, no one would blame you for backing the Texans as the favourite.
It took a few weeks, but Deshaun Watson has come along nicely following last year’s season-ending ACL tear, now looking comfortable in the pocket on his way to 17 total touchdowns so far this season.
As with any team, there are concerns, though. The sacks continue to pile up, and the running game continuing to prove hit and miss, the Texans’ Super Bowl hopes once again hang entirely on their quarterback.
As far as this game goes, the Texans are 3-9 in their last 12 road games, so that’s something to keep in mind. They haven’t travelled to Washington since 2010, and as we’ve seen with teams like Green Bay and Carolina, that unfamiliarity with FedEx Field often plays a part.
Tip: Back the Redskins To Win @ $2.25
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis 38 – Tennessee 10
Indianapolis Colts (4-5):
It’s safe to go ahead and make a few assumptions about the Colts now.
Firstly, this might be the best running back committee in the league, led by Jordan Wilkins last week, who rushed for 53-yards in the win over the Jaguars.
Secondly, the Colts offensive line is for real. They’ve allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league behind the Saints, which in turn leant itself to another convincing game from Andrew Luck, who has now thrown for at least three touchdowns in six consecutive games.
The rebirth of tight end Eric Ebron also continues to amaze, as the 25-year old now ranks fourth in the league in touchdown receptions.
And last but not last but not least, the Colts’ are making the most of the game. They were seriously beaten in time of possession last week, but thanks to Luck’s scrambling and decision making ability, they walked away with a 24-17 win.
This week, the Colts will face one of the toughest defence’s in the league, but Indy have beaten the Titans eight times in their last 10 meetings.
Tennessee Titans (5-4):
Revenge games are everything in the NFL, and there’s nothing quite like sticking it to the Patriots.
The Titans made Bill Belichick look foolish last week as the NFL’s greatest ever coach fell victim to his former assistant, and now Tennessee head coach, Mike Vrabel.
It wasn’t a close win, it was a blowout for the Titans, as their defence once again showed that it’s one of the best in the league by swarming Tom Brady up the middle.
Brady was held without a touchdown in the loss, but it was also a big day for the Titans’ running game, as well as wide receiver Corey Davis, who put up his second 100-yard game of the season.
As we’re quickly finding out, the Colts are no easy-beat, especially when Luck gets time in the pocket. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they only fare middle of the pack when it comes to sacks, although their secondary should be able to limit the damage in the air.
This game figures as a huge teller. Are the Titans for real? Or is this all smoke and mirrors?
While we wait to find out, keep it simple and go with the Points market.
Tip: Back Under 48.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Monday 19 November, 5:00am, Ford Field
Detroit 30 – Carolina 19
Detroit Lions (3-6):
The Lions entered tank mode as soon as they dealt Golden Tate to the Eagles a fortnight ago, but no one expected things to deescalate this quickly.
Detroit lost 34-22 last week against the Bears, although the scoreboard actually did the Lions some justice. Matt Patricia’s side was completely outclassed in all areas, but none moreso than the passing game, where Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky had a field day.
It’s well known Detroit can’t stop the run, and with cornerback Darius Slay missing last week, they couldn’t stop the pass, either. Trubisky carved the Lions for 355-yards and three touchdowns, while on the other side, Matthew Stafford threw two picks.
The Lions managed to convert only four of their 15 third-down attempts last week, and also gave up six sacks in the process. It looks extremely tough to bet on Detroit in this game, let alone for the rest of the season, after that performance.
Carolina Panthers (6-3):
Pressure can do strange things to a quarterback.
Cam Newton looked lost last week against Pittsburgh, managing just 193-yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the Panthers’ 52-21 loss.
It was a reminder to all that when you take away Cam’s legs, Carolina become quite one dimensional, as the running game as a unit tallied only 95-yards.
The problem with Carolina’s playcalling is they can sometimes try to do too much. Bootlegs, play-action, and run/pass options are great when they work, but not when your offensive line can’t pick up a simple blitz.
Fortunately, this week the Panthers will have it easy against a Lions team that has allowed the ninth most rushing-yards all year.
Carolina are 6-1 in their last seven games when playing Detroit, and should be able to rely on some fast-tempo, creative playcalling to catch out a Lions defence that is struggling with the basics.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Beat The Line (-4 Points) @ $1.95
Los Angeles Chargers
Monday 19 November, 8:05am, StubHub Center
LA Chargers 22 – Denver 23
Los Angeles Chargers (7-2):
The Chargers cruised to a 20-6 win over the Raiders last week, but the Bolts weren’t their usual well-oiled selves.
By all accounts, Philip Rivers is having an MVP-season. Two of 10 on third down, though? That just doesn’t cut the mustard, especially against one of the worst defences in football.
Without Melvin Gordon, it’s fair to say the Chargers could have lost last week in Oakland, but thankfully the fourth-year running back chipped in with yet another 90-plus yard rushing performance.
This week, the Chargers return home to face the Broncos, a team that’s had their numbers in recent years. Denver are 5-2 against the Chargers in LA, and after the bye week, the Broncos certainly have the talent to stop Gordon in the running game.
Denver Broncos (3-6):
With just three wins next to their name, most teams would be calling it quits and looking ahead to next year – not the Broncos, though.
Head coach Vance Joseph still thinks Denver can remain competitive for the next six weeks, but it’s safe to say, with the Chiefs heading the division followed by the Chargers at 7-2, that looks pretty unlikely.
The Broncos have had two-weeks to stew on their close call against the Texans in Week 9, a game they lost 17-19. Denver’s secondary was torched by DeAndre Hopkins on the day, but statistically speaking, the Broncos have every right to feel confident matching up against the Chargers.
Denver’s defence has been sneakily strong this year, allowing the fifth fewest passing completions. Stopping Gordon will be the key this week, but if Denver can plug up the lanes and stop him from getting around the edge, it will force Philip Rivers into passing on early downs.
The Broncos’ record speaks for itself against the Chargers: they’ve won seven of the last 10. Well-rested with a bright running game led by Phillip Lindsay, this is an upset worth taking.
Tip: Back the Broncos To Win @ $3.80
Monday 19 November, 8:05am, State Farm Stadium
Arizona 21 – Oakland 23
Arizona Cardinals (2-7):
The Cardinals might be lucky to win another game this season, but there are signs of promise as far as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen is concerned.
The first round draft pick faced his toughest test of the season last week in Kansas City, and for the most part, there was a lot to like.
Arizona chose to keep it simple early and hand the ball off to David Johnson whenever they could, a clever strategy allowing Rosen to ease into the game and the harsh environment of Arrowhead.
When he got time in the pocket. Rosen stood firm and delivered, leading two key scoring drives at the beginning of both halves.
Of course, it all just boils down to talent and what’s surrounding him, which isn’t much. The defence made some crucial stops on third down last week, but for Arizona to compete, they need to draft some serious talent at receiver next year.
There’s plenty of untapped potential here, and this is a game the Cardinals can win if they can find a way to convert on 3rd and long.
Oakland Raiders (1-8):
The Raiders would want to hope this upcoming offseason is pretty epic.
Last week’s 20-6 loss to the Raiders was another kick in the nuts for a franchise already down on confidence. Derek Carr’s frustrations must be close to boiling point after throwing for zero touchdown passes for the fourth time this season, while the defence was once again gashed on the ground.
Aside from draft picks and the future, there’s very little to talk about with the Raiders right now. Oakland are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games on the road, and since they haven’t travelled to Arizona since 2010, this looks like one of the rare occasions where the Cardinals are worth your coin.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Beat The Line (-8 Points) @ $1.87
New Orleans Saints
Monday 19 November, 8:25am, Mercedes Benz Superdome
New Orleans 48 – Philadelphia 7
New Orleans Saints (8-1):
Just about any team can beat up on the Bengals’ defence right now, but the Saints accomplished something pretty special in last week’s 51-14 win.
New Orleans committed just one penalty during the entire game, which is fitting considering the Saints are the second-least penalised team in the league.
That kind of discipline will come in handy for the Saints as they host the Eagles this week. New Orleans and Philly have split their last 10 meetings five games apiece, but it’s the Saints’ 11-1 record at home that makes them hard to back against.
The Saints have been desperately trying to find a fill-in wide receiver over the last fortnight, and after Dez Bryant’s signing ended prematurely with a torn achilles, New Orleans has brought in Brandon Marshall on a one-year deal.
That likely doesn’t mean much for this game, but it only strengthens New Orleans as a team, who now sit joint Super Bowl favourites with the Rams and the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-5):
The Eagles began last week’s game against the Cowboys with a three and out, and everything basically went downhill from there.
This conversation has to start with Philly’s horrible offensive line, which was the main reason for Carson Wentz’s interception on the very next drive. The Cowboys did a great job of bringing pressure from the edge, and after being sacked twice, it became clear pretty quickly that the Eagles couldn’t pick up the blitz.
Of course, that’s just the first on a long list of problems.
The non-existent ground game is not only forcing the Eagles to throw more, it’s also failing to provide blocks on passing downs. Wendell Smallwood is a great pass-catcher, but for the most part, it’s mind-boggling why the Eagles haven’t trusted Corey Clement with the bulk share of carries.
Last but not least, Doug Pederson’s coaching creativity seems to have dried up – the Eagles ran just one trick play all game, and that came in the fourth quarter.
The offensive line can’t protect, the Eagles’ receivers were bullied by the Cowboys, and they are 2-5 when playing New Orleans. Even though the $4.00 odds about Philly seem nice, you can’t take the Eagles this week.
Tip: Back the Saints 7-12 @ $4.75
Monday 19 November, 12:20pm, Soldier Field
Chicago 25 – Minnesota 20
Chicago Bears (6-3):
Chicago fans, we give you permission to get excited.
The Bears’ beatdown over the Lions last week was convincing, but it’s just about what we expected from Chicago’s offense against Detroit’s miserable secondary.
Now for the real test. The jury is still out on quarterback Mitch Trubisky, and although he threw for 300-yards and three touchdowns last week, how will he fare against a well-rested Vikings defence fresh from the bye?
Chicago are 14-3 when playing at home against Minnesota, so that’s good news. Their pass rush also looked back to full strength last week with Khalil Mack piling up a pair of sacks, although to be fair, it isn’t the defence that’s in question.
This game firmly comes down to Trubisky and whether or not he can make accurate throws under pressure. We saw him struggle at home against New England a month ago when the Patriots brought pressure up the middle, and that’s exactly what the Bears should expect to see again on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1):
In their last seven meetings with Chicago, the Vikings have won six. Their trip to Chicago last year saw Minnesota walk away with a narrow 20-17 victory, and given the Vikings are also one of the Top 3 best sides when it comes to stopping the run, we should be in for another nail-biter.
For the Bears, when you take the run game away, you place a lot of faith in Trubisky, which is concerning.
For the Vikings, even if Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray are held quiet, at least you can rest knowing Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen are probably good for triple digits through the air.
Minnesota are 2-1-1 on the road this year, and have lost just one of their last five games. The Bears’ pass rush will likely give the immobile Kirk Cousins problems in the pocket, but if he can step up and find targets down field, the Vikings are going to make this look relatively easy.
Tip: Back the Vikings To Win @ $2.25
Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday 20 November, TBD, LA Memorial Coliseum
LA Rams 54 – Kansas City 51
Los Angeles Rams (9-1):
Should the Rams win and the Seahawks lose, Los Angeles can become the first team since the 72’ Dolphins and the 07’ Patriots to clinch the division by Week 11.
Now that the game has been moved away from Mexico City due to poor turf conditions and back to the LA Coliseum, the Rams stand every chance with home-field advantage, and to keep the milestones coming, this will also be LA’s first Monday Night Football game at the Coliseum since 1979.
To be truthful, there’s no doubt LA got lucky against the Seahawks last week. After Marcus Peters’ interception was called back for a hold, Dante Fowler’s unsportsmanlike penalty nearly cost the Rams the game, but like all good teams do, the Rams still found a way to squeak out a win.
This week the Rams enter as the favourite, but they’ll have to resume duties without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
How that effects the team long term is unknown, however, what we do know is the Rams can’t play defence – they’ve now allowed the sixth most rushing yards in the league.
Jet sweeps and Todd Gurley’s brilliance is one thing, but it just feels like the Rams are starting to slip away a little. Kansas City fans travel, and that will mean a lot in this statement game for both sides.
Take the Chiefs to become the outright Super Bowl favourites.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-1):
Kansas City failed to cover their 14.5 spread against Arizona last week, but they did however, improve to 9-1 to further cement their lead in the AFC West.
It took the Chiefs just four plays to find Tyreek Hill for six, but really, this game hung in the balance up until the midway point of the fourth quarter. Arizona trailed 14-20 after Josh Rosen made some big plays, only further illustrating how terrible Kansas City’s defence is.
Aside from the secondary though, the Chiefs’ offensive line was caught napping on third down on three separate occasions. The Cardinals brought strong pressure on the edge, and although the Chiefs can burn you down the field, the problem is, sometimes you have to wait for those receivers to become open.
This week, don’t expect defence from either side, which favours the Chiefs heavily. They are still forcing teams to over-commit to Hill, and when that happens, guys like Kareem Hunt normally burn you on a screen or flip pass for 30-yards.
Tip: Back the Chiefs To Win @ $2.50
We are edging closer and closer to the NFL Playoffs and there are a stack of important games set to take take.
The biggest game on the weekend is on Monday afternoon when the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Dallas Cowboys in a huge NFC East clash before the Seattle Seahawks host the Atlanta Falcons in another massive game on Tuesday.
We have analysed every single game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2017 NFL Week 11 tips can be found below!
Friday November 17, 12:25am, Heinz Field
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won four games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Tennessee Titans as clear favourites.
Pittsburgh haven’t made it look easy in recent weeks against either the Detroit Lions or the Indianapolis Colts, but they have still been able to get the job done.
The Steelers have won six of their past seven games as home favourites and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
Tennessee have also won four games on the trot and they are locked in a battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South title.
The Titans have held their composure in their past three games, but they will need to go to another level to compete with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Tennessee have won one of their past three games as away underdogs, but they have covered the line in only two of their past eight games on the road.
Pittsburgh should win this game comfortably and the line of 6.5 points will not be enough.
Back Pittsburgh To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Monday November 20, 5:00am, First Energy Stadium
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the other team in the hunt for the AFC South Title and they will start this clash with the Cleveland Browns as dominant favourites.
Jacksonville didn’t make it look easy, but they were able to extend their winning streak with an overtime win over the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend.
The Jaguars have won three of their past eight games on the road, but their record against the line away from home is a positive 6-2 over the past 12 months.
The likelihood of the Browns finishing this season without a win increases every week and it is impossible to back them with any confidence.
They have won only one of their past 15 games and they are 3-6 against the line as home underdogs.
This is a game that the market has gotten just about right and I will be staying out from a betting perspective.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday November 20, 5:00am, Hard Rock Stadium
This game was originally set to take place during the opening weekend of the season, but was postponed due to Hurricane Irma.
A great deal was expected from both these teams at the start of the 2017 NFL season, but neither has been able to deliver.
Miami have lost three games in a row, but they will still start this clash as narrow favourites.
The Dolphins have won their past three games as home favourites and they are a middling 1-1-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended a lengthy losing streak with a win over the New York Jets, but they were still far from impressive.
Tampa Bay have won two of their past six games as away underdogs for a small profit and they are 3-1-2 against the line in this situation.
It is impossible to trust either of these teams on their recent form and this is another clash that I am keen to stay out of.
Green Bay Packers
Monday November 20, 5:00am, Lambeau Field
There is very little between these two sides ahead of this encounter.
The Green Bay Packers returned to winning form against the Chicago Bears last weekend and they will go into this game as only slight outsiders.
Green Bay have won their past six games as home favourites, but they are 1-2 when they play at home as underdogs and they are a tough team to back with any confidence without Aaron Rodgers.
The Baltimore Ravens went down to the Tennessee Titans last weekend and they have now lost three of their past four games.
Baltimore have lost their past two games as away favourites and they are another team that it tough to trust.
The real value in this clash lies in the Over in Total Points betting markets.
The Over has saluted in six of the past nine games played by the Packers at home and has been a highlight profitable betting play in Ravens games over the past 12 months.
Back Over 38.5 Points
Monday November 20, 5:00am, Soldier Field
This is a big game in the NFC North as the Detroit Lions must keep winning to keep their NFL Playoffs hopes alive.
Detroit made it two wins on the trot with a comfortable victory over the Cleveland Browns and they will start this clash with the Chicago Bears as clear favourites.
The Lions have won seven of their past eight games against the Bears and winning away from home has not been an issue.
Chicago have not been disgraced in any of their games this season, but they let a golden opportunity to beat the Green Bay Packers slip last weekend.
The Bears have won three of their past eight games as home underdogs, but they are a highly profitable 7-1 against the line in this scenario.
There is rarely much between these two sides – despite the dominance of the Lions head-to-head – and the Bears can cover the line with a small start.
Back Chicago To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
Los Angeles Rams
Monday November 20, 5:00am, U.S. Bank Stadium
The Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams both take a 7-2 record into what is one of the biggest games of the weekend.
It is the Vikings that will start this clash as narrow favourites and they have now won five games on the trot.
Minnesota have won four of their past six games as home favourites for a small profit and they have an identical record against the line.
Los Angeles have won their past three games in very impressive fashion and the improvement that they have made this season has been nothing short of outstanding.
The Rams have won two of their past five games as away underdogs, but their record against the line when giving away a start is poor.
Minnesota have the ability to control this game and they should be able to do just that.
Back Minnesota To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
Monday November 20, 5:00am, NRG Stadium
There is very little between the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals in betting ahead of this clash.
Arizona have won a game with Drew Stanton under centre and they were not disgraced against the Seattle Seahawks last weekend.
The Cardinals are 3-2 as away favourites over the past 12 months and they have been a losing betting play against the line in this scenario.
The loss of DeShaun Watson has been felt by the Texans and they have not been the same team without him under centre.
They have won only one of their past three games as home underdogs and their record against the line in front of their home fans is poor.
This is a game with limited betting value and I will be staying out.
New York Giants
Kansas City Chiefs
Monday November 20, 5:00am, MetLife Stadium
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the shortest-priced favourites in the NFL this weekend.
Kansas City have lost three of their past four games, but this is a game that they really should win comfortably.
The Chiefs have won three of their past four games as away favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is just as strong.
The New York Giants have won only one game this season and their season hit a new low when they gave the San Francisco 49ers their first win of the season last weekend.
New York have won only three of their past 11 games as underdogs and they have covered the line in just two of their past seven games at home.
The New York defence will be no match for the Kansas City offence and this game has blowout written all over it.
Back Kansas City To Beat The Line (-10 Points)
New Orleans Saints
Monday November 20, 5:00am, Mercedes-Benz Superdome
The New Orleans Saints have been one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season and they will start this clash with the Washington Redskins as clear favourites.
New Orleans made it seven wins on the trot with a big victory over the Buffalo Bills and they have turned into genuine Super Bowl contenders.
The Saints have won five of their past six games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins.
Washington have lost three of their past four games and they have really struggled for consistency this season.
The Redskins have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs and they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this situation.
New Orleans can continue on their winning ways and they can cover the line in the process.
Back New Orleans To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
Los Angeles Chargers
Monday November 20, 8:05am, StubHub Centre
The Buffalo Bills may have a winning record, but they have made the controversial decision to bench quarterback Tyrod Taylor in favour of Nathan Peterman.
This move has led to markets being suspended for this clash and at this stage we are unable to make any recommendations.
More To Come
Monday November 20, 8:25am, Mile High
The Denver Broncos have lost five games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash as narrow favourites.
Denver have completely fallen apart on both sides of the football in recent weeks and they were extremely poor against both the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots.
The Broncos have won three of their past five games as home favourites and they are a middling 2-1-2 against the line in this scenario.
The Cincinnati Bengals lost a close game at the hands of the Tennessee Titans and this looks set to be another season of mediocrity.
Cincinnati have lost their past six games as away underdogs and they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
It is impossible to trust either of these teams and this is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
New England Patriots
Monday November 20, 8:25am, Estadio Azteca
The Oakland Raiders have taken their home game to Estadio Azteca in Mexico.
Oakland went into the bye on the back of a win over the Miami Dolphins, but the New England Patriots obviously represent a much tougher challenge.
The Raiders have won only two of their past seven games as underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
New England just keep on winning and they continue to be one of the best betting sides in the NFL.
The Patriots have won their past nine games as away favourites and they are an imposing 7-2 against the line in this scenario.
The line of 6.5 points will not be enough and New England are one of the safest betting plays of the weekend.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Monday November 20, 12:30am, AT&T Stadium
This is a massive game in the NFC East and a win for the Philadelphia Eagles would all but secure the division.
Philadelphia have won seven games in a row in most impressive fashion and they will start this clash with the Dallas Cowboys as clear favourites.
The Eagles have won eight of their past nine games as favourites and they are 7-2 against the line when giving away a start.
Dallas will go into this clash without star running back Ezekiel Elliot, but an even bigger loss could be linebacker Sean Lee.
The Cowboys defence is not the same unit without Lee on the field and this is going to be a very tough assignment for the Cowboys against the high-powered Eagles offence.
Philadelphia are the benchmark in the NFC East and they will be too strong for this depleted Cowboys outfit.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (-5 Points)
Tuesday November 21, 12:30am, CenturyLink Field
This is another massive game in the NFC.
The Seattle Seahawks returned to winning form against the Arizona Cardinals and they will go into this clash with the Atlanta Falcons as narrow favourites.
Seattle have been tough to beat at home this season and they have won six of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
Atlanta produced their best performance of the season to beat the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and they need to keep winning to have any chance of making the NFL Playoffs.
The Falcons have won five of their past seven games on the road, but they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
The value in this clash lies in the Over in the Total Points betting market.
The line has been set at 45 points and that mark has been covered in six of the past seven games played between these two sides.
Back Over 45 Points
There is now less than two months left in the NFL regular season and the battle for positions in the NFL Playoffs is now on in earnest.
The action gets underway on Friday when the Carolina Panthers tackle the New Orleans Saints in a crucial NFC South clash.
A number of teams will start this weekend as short-priced favourites and this is the sort of week when there is likely to be a number of upsets.
We have analysed every game in week 11 of the 2016 NFL season and you can find our tips for every single game below.
New Orleans Saints
Friday November 18, 11:25am, Bank Of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers 23 - New Orleans Saints 20
Both these teams are quickly losing touch with the Atlanta Falcons and this is almost a must-win clash.
Carolina went down to Kansas City last weekend, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
The Panthers have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a clear profit, while they have an identical record against the line in this scenario.
New Orleans were arguably unlucky to have their winning streak ended by the Denver Broncos and their recent form has been strong.
The Saints have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear profit, while they are 4-1-1 against the line in this situation.
There is not as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Saints are good value at their current quote of $2.55.
Back New Orleans To Win @ $2.55
Monday November 21, 4:00am, FirstEnergy Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 - Cleveland Browns 9
The Cleveland Browns are still chasing their first win of the season and it is no surprise that the Pittsburgh Steelers will start this clash as clear favourites.
Pittsburgh went down to the Dallas Cowboys in an absolute thriller last weekend and they have now lost four games on the trot.
The Steelers have won just three of their past seven games as away favourites for a clear loss, while their record is 2-1-4 against the line.
Cleveland continue to struggle and not only have they lost their past six games as home underdogs, but they have an identical record against the line for a clear loss.
Pittsburgh should be able to return to winning form, but there is no value at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting standpoint.
Monday November 21, 4:00am, AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys 27 - Baltimore Ravens 17
The Dallas Cowboys continued their stellar season with an incredible win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and they will start this game as clear favourites,
Dallas just keep finding ways to win and they have now won two of their past three games as home favourites, while they have the same record against the line.
Baltimore were far too good for the Cleveland Browns, but this is obviously a much tougher challenge.
The Ravens have won just one of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they do have a 3-2 record against the line in this scenario.
Dallas are deserving favourites, but there is no as much between these two teams as the market suggests and the Ravens are a good bet to beat the line with a start of seven points.
Back Baltimore To Beat The Line (+7 Points)
Monday November 21, 4:00am, Ford Field
Detroit Lions 26 - Jacksonville Jaguars 19
The Detroit Lions went into the bye with four wins from their past five games and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
Detroit have won three of their past four games as home favourites for a clear profit, while they have an identical record against the line in this scenario.
Jacksonville suffered their fourth straight loss at the hands of the Houston Texans and this truly has been a horror season.
The Jaguars have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss and they are 2-1-4 against the line in this situation.
Detroit should prove too strong for Jacksonville and they are a good bet to cover the line of 6.5 points.
Back Detroit To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Monday November 21, 4:00am, Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts 24 - Tennessee Titans 17
This is a crucial game for both sides as they attempt to keep in touch with the Houston Texans at the top of the AFC South.
Indianapolis will start this clash as clear favourites and they have won four of their past six games as home favourites, while they have the same record against the line.
Tennessee have struggled for consistency this season and their record as away underdogs is not great – they are 2-5 both in head-to-head betting and against the line.
Indianapolis are a tough team to trust, but they should prove too strong for Tennessee and the line of three points will not be enough.
Back Indianapolis To Beat The Line (-3 Points)
Monday November 21, 4:00am, Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals 12 - Buffalo Bills 16
Both these sides go into this clash on the back of losses and it is the Cincinnati Bengals that will start this game as clear favourites.
The Bengals have won four of their past seven games as home favourites for a loss, while they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Buffalo have struggled defensively in the past three weeks and there is far to much pressure on Tyrod Taylor and the offence.
The Bills have won just one of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss, while they are 1-2-3 against the line in this situation.
It is tough to trust either of these teams from a betting standpoint and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.
Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday November 21, 4:00am, Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs 17 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
The Kansas City Chiefs have flown under the radar, but they have recorded five wins on the trot with tough defensive efforts.
Kansas City have won their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 2-1-5 against the line in this situation.
Tampa Bay returned to winning form against Chicago last weekend and they have won four of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear profit, while they have the same record against the line in this situation.
This is another game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to let it go through to the keeper.
New York Giants
Monday November 21, 4:00am, MetLife Stadium
New York Giants 22 - Chicago Bears 16
The New York Giants have recorded four straight wins and they are set to start this clash as clear favourites.
New York have won three of their past five games as home favourites for a narrow loss, while they are 2-3 against the line in this scenario.
It has been another season to forget for the Chicago Bears and they are a tough to trust from a betting perspective.
The Bears have won just two of their past seven games as away underdogs for a loss, while they have the same record against the line.
The one betting market that does stand out from a betting perspective is the total points betting market.
The over has saluted in five of the past eight games played by both these sides and it really would not surprise if this clash turned into a genuine shootout.
Back Over 45 Points
Monday November 21, 4:00am, US Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings 30 - Arizona Cardinals 24
The Minnesota Vikings have fallen into a massive hole after their strong start to the season and this is almost a must-win clash.
The market can’t separate these two teams and they are both tricky teams to analyse as the gap between their best and worst form is massive.
Minnesota have won five of their past nine games in front of their home fans and are 6-3 against the line in this scenario, while Arizona have won four of their past seven games away from home.
The Vikings are a better team than their recent form suggests and they are more than capable of returning to winning form.
Back Minnesota To Win @ $1.91
Los Angeles Rams
Monday November 21, 7:05am, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles Rams 10 - Miami Dolphins 14
The Miami Dolphins have got themselves into playoffs contention with four straight victories and they will start this clash with the Los Angeles Rams as favourites.
This will be the first time in over 12 months that the Dolphins have started an away game as favourites, but they have won just one of their past six games on the road for a clear loss.
The Rams returned to winning form with a dour victory over the New York Jets and they will finally give an opportunity to number one draft pick Jared Goff.
Los Angeles have won two of their past six games as home underdogs for a loss, while they are 2-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
I am still not willing to trust the Miami Dolphins from a betting perspective and the Rams are simply a bad team, so this is another clash that I am happy to stay out of.
San Francisco 49ers
New England Patriots
Monday November 21, 7:25am, Levi’s Stadium
San Francisco 49ers 17 - New England Patriots 30
This is one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL this season and the New England Patriots will start as dominant favourites.
New England suffered a rare loss at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks last weekend and their record as away favourites is not particularly strong – they have won just four of their past eight games in this scenario and have the same record against the line.
The San Francisco 49ers have not won a game since the opening week of the season, but they were only narrowly denied by the Arizona Cardinals last weekend.
The 49ers have won just two of their past seven games as home underdogs and their record against the line is an average 3-4.
Total points does stand out in this clash as the line has been set at a very high 51 points.
New England are a high-scoring team, but the under has saluted in six of their past nine games away from home, while backing the under in San Francisco games has also been profitable.
Back Under 51 Points
Monday November 21, 7:25am, CenturyLink Field
Seattle Seahawks 26 - Philadelphia Eagles 15
The Seattle Seahawks have won two games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Philadelphia Eagles as clear favourites.
Seattle have won seven of their past eight games as favourites for a clear profit and they are 4-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
Philadelphia returned to winning form against the Atlanta Falcons and they have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear profit, but they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
Seattle should be able to get the job done, but there is no value at their current price and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.
Green Bay Packers
Monday November 21, 11:30am, FedEx Field
Washington Redskins 42 - Green Bay Packers 24
The Washington Redskins have won five of their past seven games and they will go into this clash with the Green Bay Packers as clear favourites.
Washington have won only two of their past five games as home favourites for a clear loss and they have the same record against the line.
The Green Bay Packers have lost three games on the trot thanks to some very poor defensive efforts and their season hit a new low with their loss to the Tennessee Titans.
Green Bay have won just one of their past four games as away underdogs for a loss, but they are 3-1 against the line in this situation.
The Packers are a better team than their recent form suggests and they are a good bet to cover the line in what I expect to be a very tight affair.
Back Green Bay To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
Tuesday November 22, 11:30am, Estadio Azteca
Oakland Raiders 27 - Houston Texans 20
This is set to be an outstanding Monday Night Football clash between two of the best teams in the AFC.
Oakland have won six of their past seven games and they are well on track for their best season in some time.
They will start this game as favourites and they have struggled somewhat in this situation – they have failed to beat the line in their past three games as home favourites.
Houston have won two games on the trot to take control of the AFC South and their defence has been able to overcome the loss of JJ Watt.
The Texans have won just two of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss, while they have an identical record against the line.
There is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and Houston are definite value at their current price of $3.
Back Houston To Win @ $3