There are few bigger days of action on the NFL calendar than Monday morning with 12 hours of must watch action.
Admittedly the first game between the Dolphins and Commanders is more notable for it’s setting in Madrid but once that’s over and done with there is plenty to look forward to.
The early window is headlined by Tampa Bay and Buffalo both in desperate need of a win as they face off while the Chargers and Vikings look to keep their playoff push alive against the Jaguars and Bears respectively.
We have a pair of huge divisional games straight after that with the Rams facing the Seahawks for NFC West supremacy while the Broncos and Chiefs do battle in the AFC West.
The day closes out with a proper blockbuster between the Eagles and Lions in a game that promises plenty of drama.
Find our full breakdown and preview for Week 11 with our best bets below.
Can you talk yourself into the Jets having a chance in this game on the back of consecutive victories?
There is not a lot of hope for the New Jersey based franchise in this game when you consider those victories came against the depleted Bengals and hapless Browns.
Not to mention they are on the road, on a short week, missing one of their best offensive players, and heading to a frigid stadium against a red hot divisional rival.
New England has won seven straight although that air of invincibility around their play has wavered over the last couple of weeks, surviving tough hitouts against the Falcons and Buccaneers.
But with MVP favourite Drake Maye at the helm, you just can’t back against New England in this spot, although the two touchdown line is fraught with danger for a back door cover.
Maye has been steady and consistent over the last few weeks, breaking 250 yards in four of his last five starts and throwing for two touchdowns in his last five and eight of New England’s ten games this season.
Look for him to take charge against a struggling Jets defence and throw the ball enough to keep New England in the lead.
The storied home of Real Madrid will host a competitive NFL game for the first time in the early hours of Monday morning and it’s fair to say this one doesn’t quite have the sizzle the league was hoping for when it was announced.
Miami has been one of the biggest disappointments of 2025 and last weekend’s win over the Bills has done nothing to inspire confidence.
Battling for the biggest letdown crown is the Washington Commanders who were in the NFC Championship Game 10 months ago and are now staring down the barrel of a sixth straight defeat to end their slim playoff hopes.
Making it worse for Washington is the injury crisis peaking with Jayden Daniels injuring his elbow and he will miss this game along with their best receiver Terry McLaurin.
Miami on the other hand has been hot and cold, over the last four weeks, producing no-shows against Cleveland and Baltimore spliced with wins over Atlanta and Buffalo.
There is no telling which version of them has made the trip to Spain and frankly, there is nothing to like about either team in this game.
Scoring has been a problem on both sides and the points total being this close to 50 seems like it is way too high.
This could be a first team to 20 wins situation.
Eight weeks on from their first meeting this season, nobody is quite sure what to make of either team, let alone decipher the Panthers 30-0 drubbing of Atlanta.
On paper this is a clear edge to the Falcons with so much talent at their disposal, but that’s now four straight defeats and they are coming back from Germany to play this game.
Carolina remains a bizarre prospect, one week beating Green Bay at Lambeau and the next putting up seven points at home in a loss to New Orleans.
Perhaps more concerning for the Panthers is the fact they have not scored more than 16 points in their last four games and Atlanta has the talent to stumble their way into the 20’s if they want to.
At some point Atlanta is going to break out of their slump and it may well be this weekend, this one isn’t being backed with a whole lot of confidence but we need to find something in this market.
Minnesota’s impressive 27-24 come from behind victory over Chicago in Week 1 was supposed to be a platform for them to mount a challenge for the NFC North.
But instead a series of injuries to quarterbacks JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz put their playoff push behind the proverbial eight-ball and at 4-5, they have to complete the sweep over the 6-3 Bears.
Having won six of their last seven though, Chicago will be tough to knock off their perch, although none of those victories have come against a defence as good as the Vikings.
The Giants did enough to hold the Bears to just 24 points and only really fell off when they lost Jaxson Dart to a concussion.
At home, with their season teetering on the brink, I’ll give the Vikings one last chance to get things back on track.
You knew at some point this season Aaron Rodgers was going to fall to pieces and in the process drag the Steelers season down with him.
It is time to mark Week 11 on the calendar as the time to start taking on the future Hall of Fame entrant because they are going nowhere fast.
Just look at Mike Tomlin’s reaction after last week’s ugly loss to the LA Chargers where they did somewhere between diddly squat and absolutely nothing with the ball.
Cincinnati’s defence is a mess and might give up some plays, but if you want a motivated team, just keep in mind that Joe Burrow is back at practice this week from his turf toe injury and suddenly this Bengals team might have a glimmer of hope.
Even if they hate their coach and probably want him fired, they have something to play for.
Jameis has been freed!
All it took for the most interesting quarterback in the NFL to get a start for the Giants was Russell Wilson falling in a heap (again) and Jaxson Dart getting a concussion.
It’s not going to help the Giants case against the Packers though, because talent wise this is shaping up as a major mismatch.
Not all is right with the Packers offence at the moment with a combined 20 points in back to back defeats at the hand of Carolina and Philadelphia, but I like their chances of bouncing back this weekend.
The Giants run defence is miserable at best, unable to contain anyone and I like Josh Jacobs to potentially have his first 100 yard game of the season.
Turns out there is still some life in Houston despite missing starting quarterback CJ Stroud with a concussion.
It looks like he is going to miss this game against the Titans as well but in all honesty, the Texans are going to win this game based on their defence.
Cam Ward is constantly under pressure and on pace to set the league record for sack yardage lost in a single season.
Houston has a nasty pass rush and they will tee off on Ward giving him another miserable day at the office.
There is no chance for the Jaguars in this game, plain and simple.
How on earth are they going to rally from their heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Texans last week, blowing a seemingly unassailable lead and seeing their playoff hopes receive a massive blow.
It won’t get any easier against a Chargers defence that just gave Aaron Rodgers fits and they will be relishing the chance to get after Trevor Lawrence.
Especially knowing that they have a chance to take over the lead of the AFC West if the Broncos lose to the Chiefs a few hours after this game goes final.
No matter which way you look at it, this game is going to be a lot of fun.
The Bills are coming off an awful performance in Miami last week where they suffered their third loss of the season and in a congested AFC playoff field that was a big blow.
On their day they remain one of the most unstoppable offences in the league but those days are few and far between.
Injuries have hit both of these teams hard although it looks like Tampa Bay might be in position to welcome back a few key contributors that missed last week’s loss to New England.
This game really will swing on the health and wellbeing of both rosters and I’m going to stay away from the result market until we get closer to kickoff.
One player who has been a steady performer for the Bills though is James Cook who is in the midst of another strong season.
He has five 100 yard games but hasn’t found the end zone in his last two outings, though the Buccaneers did give up a pair of long runs last week and I’ll jump on Cook to have a big day.
It’s the game of the week between a pair of NFC heavyweights with the division lead on the line.
Both sides are coming off massive wins last weekend and they have MVP candidates at quarterback, everything about this one screams must watch.
While this game won’t determine the NFC West division title, it will give the winner a big edge ahead of their Week 16 crunch contest.
Even though both defences are unbelievably strong, especially the respective pass rushes, I’m expecting plenty of points in this game.
LA has scored 35, 34 and 42 in their last three games while Seattle has put up 38 and 44 out of their bye week.
First team to 30 wins?
It really won’t matter who is playing quarterback for either team in this game, it’s going to be a pretty comfortable 49ers win based on the respective efforts over the last few weeks.
The only way Arizona’s offence looked good was against the hapless Cowboys and their job did not get any easier with the news Marvin Harrison Jr is out this week.
Admittedly their big loss in Seattle was their first defeat by more than four points all season but once San Francisco gets going it’s going to be over very quicky.
Only one point separated these teams in Week 3 but I’m happy to back a comfortable margin for the visitors.
This one is admittedly a bit of a roll of the dice but at this point in time, there is no reason to not go chips in on Baltimore this weekend.
Lamar Jackson is back, they could take over the AFC North this weekend and even with a banged up defence, they still are vastly superior to the Browns in talent.
By now the Browns know that Dillon Gabriel is not the guy at quarterback and short of their defence forcing half a dozen turnovers, this game doesn’t look like it will be all that competitive.
They should have this one sorted by half time.
What does winning three Super Bowls and going to five get you in a situation like this?
The benefit of the doubt, despite being three games behind the Broncos and currently out of the AFC playoff field, the Chiefs are still favourites and it’s not that bizarre of a notion.
Denver might be riding a seven game winning streak but they have done it the hard way the last two weeks, battling past Houston and Las Vegas.
Meanwhile the Chiefs are coming off a rough loss to the Bills but nothing they have shown on the balance of the season suggests they are not title contenders.
I can’t see them blowing out Denver against a strong Broncos defence but they’ll do enough to get the job done.
Prepare for some more Mahomes magic late on.
It was a rough outing for the Eagles offence in Green Bay last week, but I’m expecting a bit more production this weekend against a Lions unit that has not been watertight this year.
Detroit is coming off their best performance since September, comfortably accounting for Washington on the road and they should continue to roll.
I’ve got my eye on both star running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs who scored three touchdowns last weekend and is primed for another big day.
Meanwhile Saquon Barkley has struggled to find the end zone as often as we might have expected this season, but he should be able to have some success against the Lions.
Both teams should be able to get into the 20’s which makes the overs a decent shout as well.
If the Raiders struggling offence can’t get things going against this Dallas defence then there really is no hope.
Right now, a good day for the Cowboys is letting up under 25 points, something they have only done in three of nine games so far this year.
They did go and trade for a disruptive defensive tackle Quinnen Williams during their bye week but there is only so much he can do from that position.
Let’s just back a high scoring game and hope for some entertainment because on paper this is one of the weaker games on the Week 11 schedule.
2024
It does not get much bigger than Week 11 with the NFL scheduling a number of blockbuster clashes in the coming days.
The AFC heavyweight bout between the Buffalo Bills and the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs headlines the action with plenty of recent epics between the two.
An early alarm on Monday will be well worth it for the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Baltimore Ravens in what promises to be a bruising, physical clash.
Finally, the day rounds out with the resurgent LA Chargers hosting the desperate Cincinnati Bengals in what shapes up as a high scoring affair.
Find our full Week 11 preview and best bets for every game here.
While not quite the NFC East title decider, this game and the return game in Week 16 will have a big say in who wins the division between the 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles and the 7-3 Washington Commanders.
Philadelphia has been in great form, winning five straight and showing progress every week.
They did what was expected of them last week, beating up a depleted Dallas team but they have let bad teams hang around earlier this season rather than putting them away.
Meanwhile, this season’s surprise packets Washington lost a bruising encounter last week against Pittsburgh and the short turnaround makes this an even tougher assignment.
Teams that come off games against the Steelers this season have gone 2-6, and Washington is starting to show a bit of wear and tear.
The Eagles will happily take that as an invitation to run on a team that has struggled to contain opposing ground games so look for the Hurts and Barkley combination to feature heavily here.
SGM: Philadelphia to Win, Over 48.5 Points, Saquon Barkley 100+ Yards, Hurts & Barkley 2+ Combined TD’s @ $5.91
Another big game in Week 11 with a divisional lead going on the line sees the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens facing off.
When both teams are good (and even when they are not that great) there is always a bit of extra feeling in these clashes and both will have their best shots ready to go.
We know Baltimore can score and they should be able to move the ball enough on a stingy Steelers defence, but this one will be determined by the matchup of the Ravens porous pass defence against the reborn Russell Wilson and the rest of the Steelers offence.
Since Wilson took over for Justin Fields the Steelers are averaging over 30 points per game and the Ravens have been torched in the last month by Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston and Joe Burrow through the air.
This game should come down the last possession with plenty of points so let’s throw together a same game multi.
Derrick Henry has found the end zone in every game this season and George Pickens has been a reliable target for Wilson so pair those two up and throw in the over for some value.
SGM: Over 48.5 Points, Derrick Henry and George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorers @ $4.50
The new coach bounce was alive and well in New Orleans last week with interim boss Darren Rizzi overcoming a bizarre start to his day to help his team beat the Falcons.
It does not look they have turned the corner though, with the team still missing a whole lot of injured players.
Not to mention, that game against the Falcons was a rivalry game and operates in a bit of a vacuum compared to this cross-conference clash.
Cleveland had a rough game before their bye and perhaps the market overreacted a bit to their no-show against the Chargers, but they are the better team on paper and they should be able to handle the Saints in this one.
Cleveland to Win @ $1.90
It just goes from bad to worse for the Chicago Bears with a loss against New England last week forcing a change in offensive coordinator.
That does not look like it will be enough to solve their problems heading into this game against Green Bay though, with a number of underperforming players a far more pressing issue for the team to deal with.
Their last touchdown came three weeks ago against Washington and they just had Caleb Williams sacked nine times by the Patriots defence.
Oh and if that was not enough, Green Bay has owned Chicago in these head to head games, this one could get very ugly.
Green Bay to Cover -5.5 @ $1.90
There is not a lot to get excited about in this game with two struggling quarterbacks leading underperforming offences.
We don’t need to go too far down the Aaron Rodgers rabbit hole, that’s been done to death but it just has not worked this season.
Indianapolis is not much better and they are going back to Anthony Richardson, two weeks after benching him due to concerns over his effort, preparation and conditioning.
The Colts have not scored more than 20 points since Week 5 and the Jets have not scored more than 24 points all season.
If we are lucky one of these teams will hit 20 points and whichever one does will win the game.
Under 44 Points @ $1.90
The incredibly one-sided head to head and line markets are justified in their respective prices with the Lions favoured by two touchdowns.
Detroit is 8-1 and finding new and creative ways to win, while Jacksonville is 2-8 with the NFL world now wondering who will be their new coach in 2025 (and if they can fix Trevor Lawrence).
The 2021 first overall pick has already been ruled out of this game, which means it is another start for 2021 tenth overall pick Mac Jones, who lead the team to a grand total of seven points last week while throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble.
The last time Jones started a game and helped his team to more than 10 points was Week 9 in 2023, and the Lions should be able to have a get-right game with a big win.
SGM: Detroit to Cover -9.5 + Montgomery, Gibbs & St Brown 3+ Combined Touchdowns @ $2.59
It’s trending up in New England with the team no longer a permanent cellar dweller thanks to a dominant win in Chicago last weekend.
However one of the issues that this young roster will run into is finding ways to perform consistently, week in and week out.
Their offence still has a lot to work on and the talent just is not quite there to compete with even average teams.
Especially when they are facing a Rams team that will be highly motivated to come back from a poor game against the Dolphins.
However the short turnaround from the Monday Night Football stage combined with a cross-country flight, early kickoff and weather that is just a bit different to Los Angeles means they might not have their way with New England.
The Patriots should be able to fight and keep this one close, but the Rams’ talent will make the difference in the end.
LA Rams to Win by 1-13 @ $2.10
All is not well in Miami with that offence yet to take off following the return of Tua Tagovailoa, but their defence should have a field day against the Raiders this week.
They battered the Rams into submission last week and should destroy a Vegas team that has lost four straight.
Miami does not have to play like the preseason Super Bowl contenders everyone expected them to be to win this one comfortably.
Miami to Cover -7.5 @ $1.94
After starting the season on a tear with five touchdowns in six games, Justin Jefferson has not found the end zone in his last three starts, but that should change this week.
Tennessee’s pass defence has been one of the rare bright spots in their 2-7 campaign, but Jefferson is the best receiver that team has faced and he will be eager to bounce back from a quiet day against the Jaguars last week.
Team-wise, Minnesota should also see this as a great chance to right the ship because the only way they lose to the Titans is if they take them lightly.
Otherwise this game won’t be close and Jefferson will be a big reason why.
SGM: Minnesota to Cover -6, Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3.28
This game will come down to which team bounces back from their respective Week 10 disappointments.
Atlanta just did not answer the bell against a reeling Saints team that just fired their coach and made far too many mistakes.
Meanwhile, Denver went into Kansas City and gave the reigning champs a scare, but had a game winning field goal attempt blocked, which meant it was all for nought (unless you backed them +8.5, but that note won’t matter to the players).
On paper Atlanta has the more talented team but that Broncos defence is damn good, small blip in Baltimore notwithstanding.
At home, Denver has held its opponents to 13, 18, 23 and 14 points, while also holding four of their six opponents under 20 points on the road.
That gives the Broncos the edge and makes them the best play for this game.
Denver to Win @ $1.75
It might not have been a vintage 49ers win in Tampa last week, and it was a lot closer than it probably needed to be because of the kicker.
But it was a win and it was a win as they welcomed back Christian McCaffrey with 19 touches, and that workload should increase as he gets back into game shape.
Seattle has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a couple of bad losses at home prior to the bye, but it might not make a difference as the 49ers defence will like their chances of forcing enough turnovers to prevent this one from being too competitive.
San Francisco to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
That winning streak in Kansas City is going to come to an end soon and they continue to ride their luck while still getting the job done.
There may be no tougher task than heading to Orchid Park to take on the Buffalo Bills, who are looking pretty damn good at 8-2 despite undergoing a roster rebuild this season.
When breaking down the two teams, there is a really good case to be made for Buffalo to be the team that knocks off the reigning champions.
Josh Allen is playing a lot better than Patrick Mahomes, they have won their last five games, three of which were by double digit margins and have massively cut down on turnovers in 2024.
It is easy to see why they are favourites at home in the market.
But it’s still the Chiefs and they continue to find a way to win, it’s not very often you get the chance to back them as underdogs and I’m happy to take the visitors for those reasons.
Kansas City to Win @ $2.10
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could not have done any more than they did against Baltimore and it still was not enough to get the win.
At 4-6, the Bengals basically have to win out to have any hope of a playoff berth and they have the offence to do it.
But they will need to hit the ground running against a stingy Chargers defence this week, with LA’s “other” team winning their last three, albeit against the Saints, Browns and Titans.
Desperation is a wonderful motivator and with their season on the line, the Bengals might just have that extra edge.
Cincinnati to Win @ $2.02
On the plus side for Dallas, the won’t have to worry about the sun playing a role in this game with this one kicking off under the floodlights.
But on the down side, they’ll have to worry about pretty much everything else with their team in a horrible state.
Cooper Rush will get the start once again, but their effort against Philadelphia does not inspire much confidence.
Now we will get to see how much Houston learned from their bad loss against Detroit and the importance of closing out games when in a winning position.
That will likely be the message in practice this week and the Texans should win state bragging rights in this game.
Houston to Win by 14+ @ $2.45
2023
On the back of a heart-stopping week that featured five walk-off field goals, we now turn our attention to Week 11 in the NFL.
Playoff implications are high with all four teams in the AFC North squaring off against one another, followed by a mouth-watering Super Bowl rematch on Tuesday between the Chiefs and Eagles from Arrowhead.
The Falcons, Colts, Patriots, and Saints are all on the bye, but there’s still plenty of value to be found in the remaining 14 games.
For our best bets ahead of every match up, check out our NFL Week 11 Preview below.
Finally, a Friday game we can feel good about.
The Ravens have been a solid bet over the last five seasons coming off a loss, and they shouldn’t be short on motivation after dropping an important division game last week to Cleveland.
Cincinnati’s secondary looks incredibly shaky, and I do wonder if JaMarr Chase is anywhere close to 100 percent healthy.
Joe Burrow had a tough time in the pocket last week against a developing Texans pass rush, and this only shapes as a tougher test against a Ravens team that leads the league in sacks.
Tip: Back the Ravens 1-13 @ $2.20
A tough game to get up for between two sides heading in opposite directions.
We kinda knew all along, but the Lions stamped themselves as the real deal last week with a walk off win over the Chargers, headlined by another quality performance from Jared Goff.
The Bears have been a tough team to run the ball against, which does make this an interesting matchup given Detroit’s high-powered ground game.
On the flip side, the Lions have become one of the craftiest teams in terms of play calling, and this shapes as nothing more than a confidence-boosting win for one of the Top 10 scoring offences in the league.
Tip: Lions Over 28.5 Total Points @ $1.89
Sneaky Game of the Week contender if I’ve ever seen one.
The Texans look every bit a playoff chance coming off a massive upset over the Bengals last week, led by another stunning late-game drive by C.J. Stroud.
Kyler Murray back under centre makes Arizona a more formidable opponent, but if you caught a glimpse of Devin Singletary last week against Cincinnati, he could be in for another fill-up against a Cardinals defence that ranks second in rush yards allowed.
It’s hard to forget this same Texans team lost to the Panthers earlier in the year, but with a big game the following week against the Jags, this looks a nice match up for them to keep building momentum.
Tip: Back the Texans to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.90
Talk about a nice lull in the schedule.
After poleaxing the Giants last week, the Cowboys head to Carolina to face a Panthers side that might be lucky to win another game this season.
Bryce Young’s first year as starter has been largely forgettable, while Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are really starting to cook after a slow start to the year.
They might be on the second tier of contenders in the NFC, but the Cowboys have held their own offensively, currently ranked Top 10 in yards and third in points.
On the other side, Carolina has been giving up points for fun, while their pass rush has almost been non-existent to this point.
Part of me thinks this is the kind of game the Cowboys might lose, but based on the numbers and the fact this is such an easy time on their schedule, Dallas to win big seems the play.
Tip: Back the Cowboys 14+ @ $2.10
I like to give a tip for every game, but if you want to stay away from one, this might be it.
The Packers showed some improvement in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but as has been the case all year, the Jordan Love – Christian Watson connection is really starting to cost them.
The Chargers were again on the receiving end of a heartbreaking loss, this time to Detroit on a game-ending field goal.
Los Angeles hasn’t won a game at Lambeau since 1984, so it’s tough to take them laying -3.
At the same time, Green Bay’s slow starts and costly penalties inspire little confidence, so if you’re playing on this one, the best play is probably on either team to win by a touchdown or less.
Tip: Either Team 7 or Less @ $1.91
Important game for the Dolphins with the rest of the AFC East looking very… uninspiring.
Miami has had an extra week to reflect on its loss to Kansas City in Week 9, and judging by the trends, we should see a response considering the Dolphins have gone 3-2 following the bye since 2018.
Despite everything that’s transpired in the last couple of weeks, somehow the Raiders are 5-5, but it’s fair to say no one is actually taking their playoff chances seriously.
Josh Jacobs carved the Jets up for over 100 yards last week, but this is a different test against a Dolphins team that has been quite stout at stopping the run.
Fresh off the bye with several key players returning to health, this should be Miami’s game to lose.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Win & Under the Total
It’s a miserable time to be a football fan in New York right now.
The Tommy DeVito era has been a bit of fun, but after suffering another beatdown at the hands of the Cowboys last week, the feeling has been very down at the Meadowlands this year.
At 4-6, it hasn’t been quite as bad at Washington, but after blowing a game they should have won last week in the final minute to Seattle, Commander fans haven’t had much to cheer about either.
Despite the loss, Sam Howell did some nice things late in the game, complimented by another handy day from Brian Robinson.
I can’t have them at –9.5, but if those two combine again, Washington should at least pick up the W.
Tip: Commanders 1-13 @ $2.20
The Total is as low as 37 points ahead of this key AFC North clash, which isn’t surprising given how strong both teams are defensively.
The Browns gave up some points to the Ravens last week, but they ultimately came up with stops when it mattered most.
Likewise, the Steelers recorded two key interceptions to ice the game in the win over Green Bay, setting up what could be a low-scoring stalemate.
As it stands, both sides rank Top 10 in quarterback hits and tackles for a loss, and with neither offence inspiring much trust, the Under is probably the way to go.
Tip: Under 37 Total Points @ $1.90
This has all the makings of a ‘get right’ type of game for Jacksonville.
Trevor Lawrence has come under fire for a disappointing two-interception game in the loss to San Francisco last week, but it wasn’t entirely his fault with the rest of the offence really struggling to move the ball.
Protecting Lawrence was also an issue at the line of scrimmage, something that shouldn’t prove much of a challenge against a Tennessee team that ranks 18th in sacks.
With a huge month ahead featuring games against Houston, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore, this is simply a game the Jaguars must have.
Tip: Back the Jaguars to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90
What a difference a star wide receiver can make to a young quarterback.
Deebo Samuel helped the Brock Purdy of old return last week in the blowout win against Jacksonville, while the defence also held its own end of the bargain giving up a lone field goal.
At 4-6, the Bucs are still somewhat in the playoff race, but they’ve really struggled against some of the top offences this year giving up over 20 points to the Eagles, Lions, Bills, and Texans.
I think last week’s win over the Titans was more a case of a well-coached team having a good read on rookie quarterback Will Levis, which certainly won’t be as easy this time against a Niners team that ranks third in offensive yards.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs rally early and make a game of this on the back of some Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans magic, but ultimately, I expect San Francisco to win with a look ahead to Seattle next week.
Tip: Back the Bucs to Cover the Line (+11 Points) @ $1.90
As already mentioned, being a fan of a New York-based team isn’t fun – and that applies to the Bills, too.
Buffalo’s slow, sputtering offence cost them last Tuesday against the Broncos, as did the defence with a costly pass interference and offsides call setting up Denver for the game-winning field goal.
It’s been a tough season for coach Sean McDermott, especially in terms of play calling with the Bills showing no semblance of a running game whatsoever.
A game against the lowly Jets couldn’t have come at a better time, a team that has failed to score more than 13 points over the last three weeks.
Offensively, the Bills are still making plays and getting the ball deep down field, they’re just struggled to convert in the red zone.
Nothing will come easy against this Jets secondary, but maybe this is the game Buffalo finally flicks the switch.
Tip: Jets Under 16.5 Points @ $1.82
A key NFC West battle looms large between the 6-3 Seahawks and a Rams side that has really fallen away of late.
The Rams have held the wood over their rivals with six wins from their last 10 meetings, but it’s tough to trust an offence that so far ranks 23rd in points scored.
At the same time, the Seahawks are arguably one of the toughest teams to get a read on.
In my opinion, Pete Carroll’s side is an average team disguised as a good one, as we saw last week when they survived yet another late scare against a very mediocre Washington team only two weeks removed from a similar scenario against Cleveland.
Moving the ball down field has proven a real challenge for Geno Smith and the offence, not to mention the fact the secondary has given up a number of big plays – like the one Dyami Brown late in the fourth quarter that put Washington ahead.
Looking at the line, clearly the bookies agree, so I’m going to play it conservative and back the Rams with some insurance.
Tip: Alternate Line – Rams to Cover (+3) @ $1.65
Three weeks ago fans were circling this game as a potential primetime snoozer, but boy how things have changed.
Now at 5-5, Denver has come roaring back into the playoff picture with a thrilling third consecutive win over Buffalo last Tuesday, while the Vikings, led by Josh Dobbs, have steadied nicely to the tune of five wins of their own.
Russell Wilson has shown flashes of his old self at times over the last few weeks, complimented nicely by a defence that has held three of its last four opponents to under 20 points.
Likewise, Minnesota’s defence has been much-improved this year, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. The Vikings have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, a worrying stat for a Broncos team that has scored just one rushing touchdown on the year.
Tip: Back the Vikings to Win @ $2.10
The best has been saved for last this week with the Chiefs and Eagles set to tango for the first time since Super Bowl LVII.
Philly returns from the bye at 8-2 after knocking off Dallas a fortnight ago in a late thriller, while the Chiefs are also rested coming off their win in Germany over the Dolphins.
Trends-wise, there hasn’t been a better team to back since 2018 after the bye than Kansas City. The Chiefs have posted a perfect 9-0 record following a week off, while the Eagles have been a little slower out of the blocks at 3-3.
We’re obviously talking about the two Super Bowl favourites here, but I think we’re yet to see anything truly convincing from either team through the first 10 weeks.
The Mahomes-Kelce connection hasn’t sparked just yet, while Jalen Hurts and the Eagles seem to be cruising along in third gear.
Kansas City playing at Arrowhead has to be factored in, but I also have some queries over Philly’s defence after allowing 31 points to the Commanders and 23 to the Cowboys in back-to-back weeks.
On the other side, the Chiefs have sneakily been one of the top defensive units in the league, currently allowing the fourth-fewest yards overall while holding opposing quarterbacks to a rating of just 82 per cent.
With all those numbers in mind, I feel confident backing the Chiefs to win this one.
Tip: Back the Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.45
2022
It’s tight at the top of the NFL divisional standings across the board as we head into Week 11 of the season.
Six of the eight divisional leaders have a one-game lead however three of those teams will be forced to sit and watch their advantage potentially evaporate with Miami, Tampa Bay and Seattle on a bye.
Even with those teams as well as the Jaguars inactive there is no shortage of action to look forward to, starting with Friday’s contest between the Packers and Titans as a potentially snowy Lambeau Field.
With snow forecast to impact a handful of games this coming weekend, checking the weather reports before this week’s tips will be a must!
We’ve scoured the stat lines, looked at the matchups and come up with our best bets for Week 11 in the NFL.
While not quite the blockbuster this was expected to be at the start of the season, there is plenty on the line for this game.
The Packers are coming off their best win of the season against Dallas while Tennessee ground out a closer than it should have been win at home against Denver.
With Green Bay set to receive snow flurries throughout this game, this could be a game for the running backs and there are two of the best starting here.
Aaron Jones has put up 100 yards four times this season and while the Titans have a strong rush defence, 50 yards is very much in play.
Similarly, Derrick Henry is coming off his second lowest output of the season, breaking a run of five straight 100 yard games but the Packers defence has struggled to stop the run all year so this looks like a return to the norm for him.
SGM: Aaron Jones 50+ Rush Yards & Derrick Henry 100+ Rush Yards @ $2.75
One losing streak will come to an end in this game but it really is anyone’s guess as to who it will be.
Thankfully there is no need to pick a side at the moment which is a relief as you cannot feel good backing either team outright at the moment.
Chicago’s offence has come to life thanks to the emergence of Justin Fields but continue to be plagued by stupid mistakes while the Falcons porous defence leaves it vulnerable at just about any time.
There will be points in this game, Chicago has given up over 30 in its last three games while Atlanta is also allowing more points than it should, so the over looks like the way to go here.
Back Over 49.5 Points @ $1.90
A simple examination of the performances by both of these teams would suggest that this is not going to be a close contest.
However Baltimore, despite looking borderline unstoppable at times this season, just cannot seem to put together a dominating win on the field and have that reflected on the scoreboard.
Not to mention, despite being largely devoid of talent, especially on offence, Carolina has been competitive since the firing of Matt Rhule, staying in games that they otherwise would have no business in.
They might hit the give up point after their Week 13 bye when the focus turns to draft positioning but until then, they might just find a way to slow down the Ravens to prevent this getting ugly.
Just as long as they can keep Baker Mayfield on a tight leash and avoid a gamebreaking mistake.
Back Baltimore to Win by 1-13 @ $2.50
This is the game where weather may play the biggest role in the outcome of the contest and it could only exacerbate the issues on both sides.
In a vaccum, Buffalo should run roughshod over the Browns but with up to half a metre of snow set to hit western New York over the weekend, the conditions could act as the great equaliser.
Snow and wind are not things that are going to help Josh Allen who has thrown four red zone interceptions in the last two weeks to go with an injured elbow in his throwing arm.
It is pointing towards a big day on the ground for the Bills and Browns running backs which should see more than a few three and outs which will only help the case for backing the under.
Back Under 41.5 Points @ $1.90
Detroit might have won two in a row but the Giants just keep finding ways to win games, even if it’s not always in the most aesthetically pleasing manner.
The Lions defence will be in for a long day of trying to stop Saquon Barkley and the Giants running game, with only two teams holding them below 100 total yards this season.
New York’s style of play doesn’t lead to many big scores with their highest points tally of the season currently sitting at 27, which should give the Lions some hope.
Not enough hope to back a win however, but enough to keep it close late into the fourth quarter.
Back NY Giants to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.55
This is admittedly a bit of a speculative pick that is relying on a bit of non-weather related forecasting since this is getting played in a dome.
Having missed last week’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals, it sounds like Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will return to the field, something that should hopefully prevent the Rams offence looking as disjointed as they did in that game.
However proving that nothing can ever go perfectly for the reigning Super Bowl champions, star receiver Cooper Kupp suffered a high ankle sprain that will rule him out of action for at least a month.
In spite of those issues, the Rams still have looked a lot better than a Saints team that is seemingly incapable of getting through a game without committing at least one gut punch of a turnover.
Having put up a combined 23 points in their last two outings, the time to take on the Saints is now.
Back LA Rams to Win @ $2.50
This is arguably the game of the early window with the 6-3 Jets visiting the 5-4 Patriots with both teams currently in playoff position.
It is also the second meeting in the space of three weeks with the Patriots winning 22-17 in the Meadowlands thanks in large part to a Zac Wilson meltdown in the second half.
Neither team offers a whole lot of a challenge offensively with major question marks over both quarterbacks and two strong defences.
Realistically the only way this game hits the over is if there are multiple turnovers and a couple of defensive scores.
Back Under 38 Points @ $1.90
Perfect no more, the Eagles will be desperate to ensure that their first defeat does not turn into their first losing streak of the 2022 NFL season.
If last week is anything to go by, the Colts could conceivably offer up a real test here, especially if they continue to lean on the returning Johnathan Taylor who shredded the Raiders hapless defence last week.
However the big difference between the Eagles and the Raiders is that Philadelphia is not a hapless team and in fact, should be able to make the Colts look more like the side that limped through the start of the season and got Frank Reich fired.
More than anything else though, Philadelphia is too good to let themselves slip here and punters should be looking to back an Eagles rebound.
Back Philadelphia to Cover -7 @ $1.94
There’s something about the Washington Commanders that, despite all sorts of off field turmoil surrounding their owner, they have found a way to stay in games.
It’s not the smoothest operation but playing Taylor Heinicke has given them a spark and seen them win four of their last five.
Five of the Commanders’ last six have been one score games and their win over the Eagles turned into an 11 point margin thanks to a defensive score on the final play of the game as Philadelphia tried to pull off a miracle play.
Houston just cannot get out of its own way at the moment with a league worst 1-7-1 record and there’s only one outcome to back here, spoiler alert it doesn’t involve a Texans win.
Back Washington to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
Playoffs are beyond these two AFC West cellar dwellers, but to borrow a line from Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett, “somebody has to win this one”.
Denver’s highly dysfunctional season rolled on with their high priced quarterback putting up 10 points in Tennessee last week, the seventh time they have been held under 20 points.
Their season high total of 23 came in Las Vegas in Week 4, however that was paired with their defence’s worst game of the year giving up 32 in a loss.
Vegas’ season hit a new low last week as they were unable to stop the Colts and wasted a great game from Davante Adams.
There is also an added layer of intrigue to this game with Josh McDaniels returning to the team he made his head coaching debut with where he lasted a season and a half before being run out of town.
There has not been a lot to like from either side this year but the Raiders have shown a little bit more explosiveness and seem like the more likely team to get to 20 points.
Back Las Vegas to Win @ $2.25
Minnesota is a good team, plain and simple, but they find themselves as underdogs against Dallas despite playing this game at their home stadium.
Perhaps the biggest concern for the Vikings is the potential hangover after last week’s emotional win in Buffalo where they emptied the tank playing four quarters plus almost a full overtime period.
However the head to head prices seem like they are the wrong way around and the Vikings seem like great value.
Especially if you saw how Dallas found a way to blow a late lead against Green Bay last week.
Back Minnesota to Win @ $2.02
In Week 1 these teams played out a 23-20 overtime epic with the Steelers emerging victorious thanks to kicker Chris Boswell.
Prior to their Week 10 bye, the Bengals had their best offensive day of the season despite missing star receiver Ja’Marr Chase as they worked out the best thing to do is keep giving the ball to running back Joe Mixon.
Mixon torched the Panthers for five touchdowns but will be in for a much tougher day against a Steelers defence that welcomed back star pass rusher TJ Watt.
His return immediately shores up a unit that had been quite porous in his absence, and gives the Steelers a real shot and pulling off an upset at home.
What will be their undoing however, is the struggles of their offence, with the team scoring 20 points or less in every game bar that Week 1 victory.
Cincinnati has a lot more to play for as they chase a return to the postseason and if they can get Mixon rolling, there may be no slowing them down.
Back Cincinnati to Cover -4 @ $1.90
Despite a potential litany of absences for both teams at the wide receiver position, we should still see a close game in Los Angeles on Sunday Night Football.
The Chargers have battled injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen all season however both players are at least in with a shot of playing in this game, however their potential impact may be somewhat limited.
As for the Chiefs, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Maques Valdes-Scantling have all landed on the injury report but they still have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce which should keep that offence rolling.
History points towards a close game between the two and as tempting as it is to back the Chargers to spring an upset, injuries have really derailed their season and make it hard to have too much confidence in them,
Add in the fact the Chiefs are rolling and looking hard to stop, they should find a way to pick up another win.
Back Kansas City to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
Week 11 of the NFL season closes out in Mexico with the Cardinals taking their home game to the Estadio Azteca.
After recording a shorthanded win over the undermanned Rams, Arizona might think this could be the start of a late season run, but with Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy both on the injury report, the Cardinals have all sorts of red flags hovering over their head.
San Francisco on the other hand just keeps griding out wins, looking like a more and more complete team as the season progresses.
If they get on a roll early this could get ugly as Arizona seems unlikely to be able to dig themselves out of a hole with an injured or backup quarterback.
Back San Francisco to Cover -8 @ $1.90
2021
The phrase “any given Sunday” could not be more applicable in the National Football League at the moment with a chaotic November continuing to produce unpredictable results.
As is always the case, injuries are having their say as some early season pacesetters such as Arizona suffering as several key players struggle to get back on the field.
Divisional play headlines Monday morning’s slate of games with some big games between Minnesota and Green Bay as well as the Seahawks and Cardinals set to be must watch contests.
Meanwhile the reigning champions are in the midst of their first losing streak of the season and will look to bounce back at home on Monday night as the Buccaneers host the New York Giants.
We’re previewing all 15 NFL Week 11 games below so read on and see who we are backing!
Is there anyone still questioning the Patriots?
After a 2-4 start to the season, New England has flown through the last month and now finds themselves in the AFC playoff picture having won their last four games.
You would expect them to have no problems knocking off a struggling Falcons side but on short rest, this has the makings of a trap game against a side that is much better than their last outing, a 43-3 defeat in Dallas.
I still like New England to come away with the win here, they are 4-0 on the road this season but a touchdown handicap on short rest is a bit too much for a team that has a rookie quarterback.
Instead take them to ride their red hot defence to a victory here.
SGM: New England to Win and Under 47.5 Points @ $2.68
Detroit might have just blown their best chance of winning a game this season, forced to settle for a tie in Pittsburgh.
Now they continue their AFC North tour with a visit to a Cleveland side that they really are no match for, even with the Browns slightly depleted with injury.
After getting humbled in New England, Cleveland just has to win this game but there is no way they should be 11.5 point favourites given the number of players that are at best game time decisions.
That offence is more than capable of running up the score at full health but right now they just need to find a way to get 20 points.
Expect Myles Garrett and company to tee off on the Lions quarterback (whoever it is) as the Browns ride their defence to a confidence boosting victory.
SGM: Cleveland to Win & Under 43.5 Points @ $2.23
Whatever advantage Chicago was going to get from having their bye last week is largely negated because Baltimore is coming off 10 days rest after a loss in Miami on Thursday Night Football.
It is fair to be concerned about the Ravens performance in that game, but when put in context it was not the worst case scenario.
You can put it down to a lacklustre offensive showing four days after playing nearly 100 snaps in an overtime win against Minnesota and they should be fresh and firing in this game.
Lamar Jackson is making a real case to win his second NFL MVP award and even if the sloppy Soldier Field surface slows him down a bit, he should still be able to throw on this Bears defence and outduel Justin Fields.
Back Baltimore to Cover -4.5 @ $1.87
Green Bay to cover is one of the best bets in the entire NFL at the moment, with the Packers on a nine-game hot streak against the line.
It wasn’t the prettiest performance against Seattle last week but the defence came to play in a shutout victory as Aaron Rodgers returned from the Covid list.
In 27 career starts against the Vikings, Rodgers has won 15 and tied once, while having some of the best performances.
Until the Packers fail to cover, keep backing them.
Back Green Bay to Cover -2 @ $1.90
Tennessee is a good team, Houston is not, while nothing is ever a certainty in the National Football League, this is as straightforward a play as there is.
Even after losing Derrick Henry, the Titans just keep rolling on while Houston continues to slide towards a top five draft pick.
This is a mismatch of the highest order and Tennessee should win this one by at least three touchdowns.
Back Tennessee by 14+ @ $2.25
This is a sneaky big game in terms of the AFC playoff picture with both teams in a position where they can’t afford to drop it.
It is shaping up as a huge test for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor who has rushed for over 100 yards in all five of Indy’s victories in the last seven weeks.
While Buffalo has one of the league’s best overall defensive units, I still like Taylor to shoulder a big load and keep the Colts moving up and down the field.
It’s the other side of the ball which is why I am staying away from the Colts to cause an upset.
Their defence has been very poor of late and this could turn into a very entertaining shootout, even with the inclement weather forecast.
Back Over 50 Points @ $1.90
Out of all of the early window games on Monday morning, this AFC East cellar-dweller battle is one that you can very easily treat as a stay away.
Perhaps the Jets will get a boost with the return of Joe Flacco but the Dolphins can only look back at 2020 to know they can handle the former Super Bowl MVP.
Brian Flores teed off on him in the Week 6 meeting and it resulted in a 24-0 Miami victory.
Expect a whole lot of pressure coming Flacco’s way and based on the beating Zac Wilson and Mike White have endured so far this season, there is no reason to expect anything different with Flacco taking snaps.
Back Miami to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
There is a chance something has clicked in Philadelphia with the Eagles winning two of their last three games.
I just can’t buy in on the Eagles yet however, as New Orleans will present the best defence they have faced since San Francisco in Week 2 if not all season.
In both of those games the Eagles have run for over 200 yards while the Saints have held all bar one of their opponents under 100 rushing yards this season and if you can stop the Eagles ground game you will be in with a chance.
It is a bit of a surprise to see New Orleans as underdogs, even on the road where they have gone 3-2 so far this season.
At this price I’ll have to take them to come away with a win.
Back New Orleans to Win @ $2.05
This has the makings of a surprisingly tough spot for the 49ers coming off a Monday night game and hopping on a cross-country flight for an early kickoff.
After recording their biggest win of the season, they will deal with a scrappy Jaguars team that does not go away, even if they are still largely talent deficient across the board.
The 49ers got their offence going against the LA Rams and if Kyle Shanahan can get his team refocused they will be able to take care of business here.
With the line at -6 at the time of writing, the potential for a Jaguars back door cover is very high so for that reason I’ll back the 49ers in a close one.
Back San Francisco by 1-13 Points @ $2.30
It’s the return of Ron Rivera and by all accounts he will be facing the quarterback he drafted first overall in his debut season in Carolina.
If the reports are to be believed, Cam Newton will start for the Panthers this week and after his brief cameo against Arizona, optimism is high that he will be an improvement on PJ Walker.
That all sets up for a very fascinating storyline to follow as this game unfolds as Washington comes off its biggest win of the season, upsetting the reigning champion Buccaneers.
They are a real chance in this game and their head to head price seems very generous given they way their defence played, even after losing star pass rusher Chase Young with a torn ACL.
While the footage of Newton running for a touchdown and throwing for another was heart-warming, the memories of him one-hopping passes to receivers in New England last year still sit at the front of mind.
Rivera knows how to get after Newton and this may be a crash back to earth for the Panthers after their big win in Arizona.
Back Washington to Win @ $2.35
A pair of teams looking to end two game losing streaks will face off in the desert as they try and get back into the AFC playoff picture.
Three weeks ago, the Bengals were dreaming of the top seed and a first round bye, now they are in ninth spot, one behind this week’s opponent.
Las Vegas looks like it has hit breaking point after a number of off field dramas and this roster has looked off in its last two games.
It might be time to start treating them as a back against candidate despite their 5-4 record but they should be able to run the Bengals close.
Cincinnati gave up 75 points in their two losses before the bye but the week off should give Joe Burrow the chance to right the ship and rejuvenate their offence.
SGM: Cincinnati to Win and Over 49.5 Points @ $3.47
Someone will get their season back on track in this game, and it might just boil down to which quarterback starts for Arizona.
If you are expecting Kyler Murray to miss another game, then Seattle becomes a phenomenal value play as home underdogs.
Reading the headlines out of Arizona, it sounds like the team thought Murray could have played against the Panthers last week and are preparing for him to be available this week, but if there is any limitations for one of the most electric players then it becomes a big issue.
Let’s not pretend the Seahawks were anything spectacular in their 17-0 loss in Green Bay but Russell Wilson will be better for his first hit out after breaking his finger.
Until we can get a bit more clarity on who is playing for the Cardinals, this one will have to be a stay away.
NO BET
Kansas City looks like they are back and firing on all cylinders.
Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdowns on the Raiders last week and will be eyeing off a statement win against a Cowboys defence that can cause plenty of headaches for opposing quarterbacks.
He will have to get this offence moving to keep up with Dak Prescott who already has the Comeback Player of the Year award locked up.
This points total of 56.5 might be one of the highest numbers of the season but when both teams seem destined to score at least 30 points, the over becomes a must play.
For the real value, I’ll also take the Chiefs resurgence to continue and they out duel the Cowboys, coming away with the cover.
Back Kansas City to Cover -2.5 and Over 56.5 Points @ $3.70
Pittsburgh might have avoided a loss at home to Detroit last week but it may as well have been a defeat after settling for a sloppy tie.
Missing Ben Roethlisberger due to a positive Covid test, their offence looked lost and reminded many people why there were huge question marks over the true potential of this team.
After getting off to a fast start, the Chargers have stumbled in recent weeks, dropping three of their last four but seven of their nine games have been decided by one score.
The under has been a profitable play for both teams with seven of Pittsburgh’s games going under while six Chargers games have been low scoring.
I like the Chargers to come away with a win but not enough to add them into a Same Game Multi and I’ll just settle on the total play as this game will be won on defence.
Back Under 47 Points @ $1.90
Having suffered back to back losses, all signs are pointing towards the Buccaneers responding by blowing the doors off the New York Giants in primetime.
As injuries depleted his pass catching group, Tom Brady has struggled with the Buccaneers committing five turnovers in their two defeats.
But this is where his two decades of experience will come through for the Buccaneers and his resume gives him the benefit of the doubt.
Take Tampa to get their season back on track as Brady guides them by the Giants.
Back Tampa Bay to Cover -10.5 @ $1.90
2020
Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season rolls around on Friday with a sure-fire blockbuster between two division rivals, the Seahawks and Cardinals.
After a hectic early slate of games last week, fans can now set their sights on the late window with a very intriguing cross-conference clash between the Colts and Packers, followed by a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Raiders and Chiefs from Vegas.
As if that wasn’t enough, we’re finally being treated to a must-watch Monday Night Football game when Tom Brady and the Bucs host Jared Goff and the Rams.
With plenty of action to look forward to, be sure to read our entire 2020 NFL Week 11 Preview below!
The Cardinals already own the tiebreaker over the Seahawks as they look to make it a clean sweep over their division foes on Friday.
Arizona pulled off a miracle win last week on a last-second hail mary to DeAndre Hopkins, a result that leaves the Cardinals sitting second in the NFC West behind the Rams at 6-3.
Seattle, meanwhile, has drawn plenty of attention with back-to-back losses to the Bills and Rams.
Russell Wilson’s turnovers have been a large cause for concern, while the defence is also to blame after giving up 389 yards last week.
The Cardinals have the talent to really expose Seattle’s defence and it is quite surprising to find them at long odds heading into this game.
Arizona famously beat Seattle 37-34 in overtime only three weeks ago, and if they can shutdown D.K. Metcalf and also force a few interceptions from Wilson again, they should be winning.
That said, this does shape up as a trap game of sorts.
Seattle hasn’t lost three games in a row since 2011, but perhaps more importantly, they are 4-1 in their last five games at home.
Wilson is undoubtedly one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time, so you’d be foolish to bank on his turnover woes lasting much longer.
After the Cardinals needed all four quarters to beat the Bills last week, back the Seahawks to get back on track.
Tip: Back the Seahawks to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.83
The Patriots find themselves right back in the thick of things as they prepare for a trip to Houston this week.
Back to back wins over the Jets and Ravens leaves New England sitting ninth in the AFC Playoff standings at 4-5 behind the Browns and Titans, while another win would surely make things even more interesting with the Bills looking vulnerable atop the East.
Two years ago this would have been billed as a blockbuster, but with the Texans reeling at 2-7, this game shapes up as another winnable one for Bill Belichick.
Houston’s defence is quite easily one of the worst in the league – particularly against the run where they rank first in yards allowed.
The Patriots aren’t anything special offensively, but they did show last week that they are more than capable of moving the ball on the ground against a fierce Ravens front seven.
When you throw in the fact the Pats have won eight of their last 10 games over Houston, New England suddenly looks a great bet.
Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time Double: Patriots/Patriots @ $2.50
This shapes up to be one of the games of the week between two teams sporting plenty of question marks heading into the playoffs.
The Colts head back home with a couple days rest on their side after securing a much-needed win against division rivals Tennessee last Friday, while Green Bay, on the other hand, moved into the first seed in the NFC with a less-than convincing win over Jacksonville.
The Colts have opened -2.5 favourites, which doesn’t seem so absurd when you take a look at their defensive numbers.
Indianapolis has not only allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league, they’ve also allowed the fewest total yards in the league through 10 games so far.
We’ve seen this Packers team struggle when they can’t rely on the ground game or generate motion at the line of scrimmage, so there is a good chance this Colts front seven can stifle Matt LaFleur’s plans nice and early.
The Packers also haven’t visited Lucas Oil Stadium since 2012, so in an unfamiliar environment, it’s easy to fade Green Bay in this spot.
Tip: Back the Colts 1-13 @ $2.50
It might sound crazy, but this is basically a make-or-break game for the Eagles on Monday.
Philly lost a shocker last week to the Giants to slip to 3-5-1 on the season as they now face an almost impossible run home over the next six weeks.
After this week’s trip to Cleveland, the Eagles face the Seahawks, Packers, Saints Cardinals, Cowboys and Washington – a difficult stretch of schedule that could leave the door open for the Giants to actually win the division.
On the other side, the Browns also have plenty to play for.
Even at 6-3, Cleveland still finds itself just outside the AFC playoff picture as the undefeated Steelers continue to run away with the North.
If you had to pick between these two teams on face value, you’d be hard pressed to find anyone taking the Eagles.
Carson Wentz has been a shell of his former self this year leading the league in sacks and interceptions, while the running game was nowhere to be found in last week’s loss to the Giants.
The Browns aren’t a great team, but with home field advantage and a chance to move one step closer to a Wild Card spot, you have to side with the Dawg Pound.
Tip: Back the Browns 1-13
The Steelers remain the only undefeated team through ten games as they now set their sights on another AFC cellar dweller in Jacksonville.
To their credit, the Jake Luton and the Jaguars actually gave it a red-hot crack last week at Lambeau Field against the Packers in a game they really deserved to win.
Undrafted rookie running back James Robinson tore shreds off the Green Bay defence, while Luton also showed plenty of poise at times despite suffering two softly sacks on the final drive.
Despite signs of encouragement though, it would take all of that (plus a lot more) to defeat the Steelers this week.
Ben Roethlisberger is on a whole other level right now, which doesn’t bode particularly well for the Jags after Marques Valdez-Scantling and Davante Adams had their way last week through the air.
Considering the Steelers have won five of their last six games in Jacksonville, they should be winning this one comfortably.
Tip: Steelers Over 28.5 Total Points @ $1.83
The Ravens and the Titans are both on the bounce-back trail after suffering two devastating losses last week.
Baltimore lost in surprise fashion to the Patriots in the pouring rain at Foxboro, while the Titans have spent an extra few days reflecting on their home loss to the Colts last Friday.
The Ravens have opened as -6.5 favourites in their return home – which does come as a surprise considering the Titans put an end to Baltimore’s season in last year’s AFC Divisional Game.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh will have spent most of this week strategizing against Derrick Henry, the same man that demolished Baltimore’s defence in the playoffs for 195 yards.
Henry was held in check last week by the Colts, but he does look a good bet to bounce-back this week against a Ravens defence that just gave up 175 rushing yards to the Patriots.
Either way, this game should tell us plenty about the legitimacy of these two playoff contenders, but if you’re looking to play it safe, don’t be afraid to back a SGM on Henry.
Tip: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Over 60 Yards
Bragging rights are on the line this week between the 3-7 Panthers and the 4-5 Lions.
Detroit picked up a rare win last week against Washington on a last-minute field goal, while the Panthers put a line through their playoff hopes with a 46-23 loss to the rival Bucs.
Teddy Bridgewater picked up a knee injury during the process and remains questionable to play alongside Christian McCaffrey this week.
The Lions, on the other hand, are also sweating the health of key defensive lineman Trey Flowers and wide receiver Kenny Golladay.
This game is tough to get excited about with very little on the line, but you do have to like Detroit to at least keep this close laying +3 at the line.
Carolina’s defence has now allowed the second-most yards in the league, so if the Lions can play at full-strength, they should give this Panthers team plenty of problems.
Tip: Back the Lions to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.90
The Bengals and Washington both have an opportunity to pick up their third win of the season this week when they meet at FedEx Field.
Cincinnati suffered a harsh reality check last week against the Steelers as Ben Roethlisberger torched the defence for 300-yards and four touchdowns.
Washington cut things much closer against the Lions tying the game 27-27 with less than a minute to go, only to lose on a 59-yard walk-off field goal off the boot of Matt Prater.
Records aside, this game should be plenty of fun, and more than likely, low scoring.
You mightn’t know it, but Washington has been sneaky good on defence this year allowing the 10th fewest points and the fifth-fewest passing yards against.
Obviously, this young Bengals team is a handful from top to bottom, but don’t be surprised if Washington makes life difficult for Joe Burrow through the air.
Tip: Bengals Under 22.5 Total Points @ $1.83
The Saints have gone from a guaranteed playoff lock to a bit of a guessing game after future Hall of Famer Drew Brees suffered a rib injury last week.
Brees’ long term status is still unknown, but with several fractured ribs and a punctured lung, it’s safe to say we won’t see him in action this week against the Falcons.
Saints head coach Sean Payton hasn’t announced a starter at time of publish, but it’s more than likely he leans towards Jameis Winston after steering the team to a win last week over the 49ers last week.
For the Falcons, the loss of Brees couldn’t have come at a better time.
Atlanta remains a playoff long shot at 3-6, but with back-to-back wins over the Panthers and the Broncos prior to last week’s bye, the Falcons should rest easy knowing the guy that has made life so difficult over the last decade won’t even step foot on the field.
Obviously the Saints still have plenty of talent to win this game as Payton will likely run Alvin Kamara into the ground to avoid any potential Bridgewater turnovers.
That said, the Falcons aren’t as easy to run against as they used to be, evident in the fact they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the league so far.
It’s pretty difficult to get on board with the Falcons outright just based on the way they continue to blow games. But when you consider they’ve covered the spread in seven of their last eight games on the road, the +5 head start is actually pretty generous.
Tip: Back the Falcons to Cover the Line (+5 Points) @ $1.90
The Dolphins have been gifted another huge opportunity to not only improve on their winning record, but also move one step closer to cementing a playoff spot.
Now at 6-3, the Phins find themselves only one game behind the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills, and with a fairly cruisy strength of schedule coming up over the next few weeks, there’s certainly a chance Miami could wind up winning the division outright.
Last week’s victory over the Chargers was nothing short of spectacular as Tua Tagavailoa improved his undefeated streak as a starter to three.
Perhaps more impressively, Brian Flores’ defence did a fantastic job making life difficult for fellow rookie Justin Herbert, who spent most of the game ducking and dodging linebackers in the pocket.
All of this spells major trouble for a Broncos team that is likely to be without their starting quarterback after Drew Lock suffered another rib injury last week .
No matter who starts under centre though, Denver’s horrible offensive line is likely to struggle mightily in this game, so go ahead and back the Dolphins to keep on rolling.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.90
If the Jets are actually going to win a game this year, this will probably be the one.
New York’s remaining strength of schedule has them staring down the barrel of their first 0-16 season in franchise history, and unfortunately if you’re a fan of trends, history isn’t exactly on the Jets’ side either.
Since 2015 the Jets have gone 1-4 following the bye, so it’s difficult to get too excited about their chances this week against a hungry Chargers team looking to bounce-back from another close call last week against the Dolphins.
Despite the scoreline, Justin Herbert played the worst game of his rookie season, but the good news is this horrible Jets defence should be just what the doctor ordered.
Sam Darnold has already been ruled out of this game with a shoulder sprain, meaning we’ll be treated to Joe Flacco for the second game this season.
To his credit, the veteran actually made a few big plays in the Week 9 game against the Patriots, while on the flip side, he also made some questionable decisions late in the fourth quarter that ultimately cost New York in the end.
The Chargers should snap their three-game losing streak, but it’s hard to get them anywhere close to a -5.5 advantage.
Instead, back Herbert and the offence to bounce-back with a high-scoring show.
Tip: Chargers Over 27.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Don’t look now, but the Vikings have won three straight.
Minnesota’s season looked destined for doom and gloom a month ago, right before Dalvin Cook and the offence clicked into gear to rattle off three division wins over the Packers, Lions and Bears.
Now at 4-5, the Vikings find themselves just two wins off a Wild Card spot if things continue to go their way.
As luck would have it, a game against the hapless Cowboys awaits this week – a team that has notoriously struggled out of the gates following a bye week.
Andy Dalton is on track to play this week after suffering a concussion three weeks ago, but it probably doesn’t matter who is under centre.
The Cowboys’ defence has been one of the worst in the league in just about every area, but most noticeably against the run where they’ve allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league.
If you haven’t heard, Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns by a growing margin, so if the Vikings can keep this simple on the ground, they could be back at an even .500 in no time.
Tip: Back the Vikings to Win & Under 48.5 Total Points @ $2.45
This shapes up as another fascinating game between two bitter AFC West rivals.
The Raiders got the upper-hand over the Chiefs when these two sides met back in Week 5 with a surprising 40-32 win at Arrowhead.
Since then though, the Chiefs have been on a roll winning each of their last four games, although it is fair to say the quality of opponent hasn’t been all that great.
Of course, the same can’t be said for Patrick Mahomes, who now looks on course for his second-straight MVP award.
Kansas City’s offence has put up 30+ points in each of its last four games, which doesn’t bode particularly well for a Raiders defence that is really starting to show signs of wear and tear down the stretch.
Vegas’ win in Week 4 was more about Derek Carr and the offence than it was about the defence, while Mahomes also had a rare off day taking three sacks and throwing an interception.
The chances of history repeating itself appear pretty slim, especially considering the Raiders had their hands full only two weeks ago against rookie Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
When you throw in the fact the Chiefs have also won their last six games on the road, don’t be surprised if Andy Reid and company make a bit of a statement on the primetime stage.
Tip: Back the Chiefs 14+ @ $3.00
It might sound slightly absurd, but we could be watching a potential NFC Championship Game preview on Tuesday.
In case you missed it, the Bucs absolutely manhandled the Panthers last week in Carolina, while the Rams also put on a show against the rival Seahawks winning 23-16 at home.
Obviously this is an exciting rematch between Tom Brady and Jared Goff after the former won his sixth win against the Rams back in 2019, but on a more important note, this should also be a fascinating battle between two of the most creative coaching minds in the business.
After a bit of a lull last year, Sean McVay appears to be back to his maniacal ways, while Bucs head coach Bruce Arians continues to dial up crazy schemes with his laundry list of receivers and running backs.
Defensively, these two sides are also vastly underrated, so it should be interesting to watch McVay and Arians try and cause some matchup problems for the opposing offence.
Plenty of people will probably lean towards the Over in this scenario, but it’s really worth noting how great the Rams have been defensively in the red zone this season.
Through nine games, Los Angeles has allowed the fourth0fewest touchdowns in the league, while perhaps more importantly, they also rank third in sacks.
We saw Brady rattled twice this season by the Saints and the Bears’ pass rush, and it goes without saying this Rams front seven is miles better.
Since this is a bit of a 50/50 game, go ahead and take the Rams to keep it close.
Tip: Back the Rams to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.90
2019
All eyes might be on the race to the playoffs, but there is something much bigger brewing towards the bottom of the NFL standings.
Miami’s recent two-game winning streak has thrown the race for next year’s first overall draft pick into chaos as the Dolphins, Jets, Giants and Falcons all sit with two wins apiece.
Elsewhere, there are plenty of storylines building as a sudden rush of previous no-hopers have entered playoff calculations. The Steelers, Bears and Titans have all thrown their name back into the hat of potential contenders, making the final dash to the finish even more intriguing.
After the Niners were handed their first loss in overtime last week, it’s safe to say anything goes in 2019. Here’s a look at the our best bets ahead of Week 11.
Thursday Night Football often turns into a fizzer, but this time we could be in for a tight tussle between two division rivals.
Pittsburgh’s four-game winning streak has thrown a real spanner in the works of the playoff picture. It’s crazy to think that only three weeks ago we were locking the Steelers in for a Top 10 draft pick, but thanks to a very convincing win over the Rams at home, Pittsburgh now holds a 56% chance of making the playoffs.
The reason for the Steelers’ sudden turnaround has been the defence. Passing the ball against Pittsburgh has been almost impossible this season as Minkah Fitzpatrick continues to haunt opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers now rank second in takeaways behind the Patriots while the pass rush has also accounted for the third-most sacks.
Cleveland’s season received a nice little boost in the form of a 19-16 win over the Bills. It would take a miracle for the Browns to make the playoffs from here, although they will be looking for some late bragging rights at home.
Sometimes these Thursday Night games can be a little tough to predict, but not this one. Cleveland ranks fifth in turnovers due to their offensive line, which spells disaster against one of the best defences in the league. Pittsburgh has won eight of their last 10-games against the Browns, so take the generous odds the bookies are offering and run.
Tip: Back the Steelers to Win @ $2.30
Game of the week and maybe even, game of the year.
This could turn out to be a potential AFC Championship Game preview between two of the most exciting teams in the league.
Houston, now at 6-3, will be hoping to extend their winning streak to three as they tackle an equally impressive 7-2 Ravens team that has won five games on the trot.
Lamar Jackson has firmed into the second-favourite in MVP betting following last week’s antics.
Jackson finished with 223 passing yards and three touchdowns, as well as a dazzling 47-yard scramble for six in a blowout win over the Bengals.
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is also capable of making big plays with his feet, which makes this match up even more juicy. Unfortunately, these two teams are among the best in the league when it comes to defending the run, which could limit the big plays from either quarterback.
The Ravens have won eight of their last 10-games over the Texans and two of their last three. More importantly however, Houston has never won a game on the road in Baltimore.
Our bookies are expecting this one to be somewhat high scoring with a 49.5-point Total set. Exactly 75% of Houston’s road games have gone Over this season, making the double a worthwhile play.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Win & Over 49.5 Total Points @ $2.35
The NFC North remains anyone’s best guess as the Vikings find themselves just a game behind the Packers.
Minnesota will need to ensure they win from here on out if they wish to claim the division crown, and with a very winnable home game in hand against the Broncos this week, the Vikings certainly have every opportunity to place more pressure on their rivals in Green Bay.
Brad Zimmer’s side played one hell of a game last week in Dallas. It wasn’t a particularly convincing performance from quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the defence more than made up for it by holding the Cowboys to only 50 rushing yards and two crucial stops on fourth down in the final minute of the game.
The Vikings have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all year, which should come in handy against the always dangerous Phillip Lindsay.
Denver returns from a bye week at 3-6, but it’s difficult to find any faith in the Broncos’ 1-3 record on the road, especially with Brandon Allen under center. The Vikings are 3-1 against the spread at home this year, so take Minnesota to win comfortably.
Tip: Back the Vikings to Cover the Line (-10 Points) @ $1.92
The status of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford makes this game a risky mid-week bet.
Detroit looked completely lost last week in Chicago as Jeff Driskel completed only 27 of his 46 pass attempts. The fact the Lions decided to drop back that many times with a second-year backup under center was concerning in its own right, and it could spell disaster if Detroit employs a similar strategy against Dallas.
Of course, the Cowboys have their own problems to address as the playoffs continue to move out of reach. Dallas lost at home to the Vikings last week in a perplexing game from a playcalling standpoint, making every game from here on out a must-win as the Eagles sit equal at 5-4.
The Lions are a much different side with Stafford on the field, but with his status “day by day, week to week” according to head coach Matt Patricia, it’s hard to feel confident in putting any money on either team.
Tip: No Bet
Don’t look now, but the AFC South is pretty wild.
The Texans sit atop at 6-3, followed closely by the 5-4 Colts, the 5-5 Titans and the 4-5 Jags.
Indianapolis has to feel a little hard done by as they’ve suddenly lost two consecutive games. The Colts became the Dolphins’ latest victim last week losing 16-12 at home, largely due to Brian Hoyer’s awful day under centre.
The news look positive on the Jacoby Brissett front as head coach Frank Reich expects him to return from a knee injury. The Colts are an entirely different team with Brissett at quarterback, making them real value head-to-head if the first-year starter returns.
Over their last 10-games these two sides have won five apiece. Jacksonville last won in Indianapolis back in 2017 and have since then beaten the Colts twice.
The Jags return from the bye week well-rested, but this is a serious ‘line in the sand’ game for both teams. With the Texans pulling away atop the South, it’s worth backing the defences to do the talking in a low-scoring game.
Tip: Under 44 Total Points @ $1.92
The AFC and NFC’s Eastern bottom dwellers meet this week in a game that holds very little excitement.
Washington returns from the bye at 1-8, but will the Redskins actually play to win on Monday?
Tanking is a hot topic this time of year and the Skins are among the frontrunners for a top five pick. Likewise, you can also throw the Jets into that category, but after a win over the rival Giants last week, there’s nothing to say New York won’t be out to make up for lost time.
These two sides last got together back in 2015, a game the Jets won 34-20 at home. Surprisingly, the bookies are favouring the Redskins at home, but if New York’s defence can play like it did last week and force another pair of turnovers, there’s no reason the Jets can’t win their third game of the season.
Tip: Back the Jets to Win @ $2.00
Was the Saints’ loss to the Falcons last week anything to worry about?
From a playoff perspective, probably not. New Orleans still remains two games in front of the second-place Panthers, and while the defence was carved up by Matt Ryan, it’s easy to forget just how talented the Falcons offence is.
Things turned out a lot better for Tampa Bay last week as the Bucs beat the Cardinals in a 30-27 thriller. Jameis Winston (literally) tried his best to throw the game away but running back Ronald Jones had other ideas helping his team improve to 3-6.
The NFC South is the Saints’ to lose and we’ve typically seen them bounce-back strongly from a previous loss. Since 2015, New Orleans has covered the spread in 16 of their 26 games after a loss the week prior.
Tip: Back the Saints to Cover the Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.92
Have we got this all wrong? Are the Dolphins actually tanking?
Two wins on the trot has Miami in danger of, well… not securing the number one pick.
The Dolphins now own wins over the Jets and the Colts as they set their sights on another AFC rival this week – the luckless Bills.
Buffalo lost their third game of the season last week to the Jets, and while it mightn’t seem like too much of a big deal, it is when you factor in potential home-field advantage against the Chiefs in the second AFC Wild Card seed.
The good news is Buffalo has won two of its last three games of the Dolphins. Offensively, the Bills are struggling for points in the bottom ten of the league, but the defence is still capable of winning games against much weaker opponents.
Buffalo has allowed the third-fewest yards and points this year. The bookies have reacted accordingly setting a 41-point Total, but that looks a little low considering how confident the Dolphins’ offence has looked in recent weeks.
The Bills have been money against fellow AFC East opponents covering the spread in four of their last five games. The double looks good money here on a somewhat high-scoring Buffalo bounce-back.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) & Over 41.5 Total Points @ $3.80
Normally this is the sort of game that goes a long way to determining the NFC South, but this time around there’s nothing more than bragging rights on the line.
The Panthers currently have an 18% chance of making the playoffs following last week’s loss to Green Bay. Kyle Allen performed exceptionally well in the freezing conditions, but the same can’t be said for the defence as Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones picked apart the Panthers’ interior.
Despite their 5-4 record, Carolina is still favoured to win this game by 5.5 points. Bookmakers are clearly factoring in Atlanta’s upset over the Saints last week, but can we expect another shocker?
Atlanta’s defence has been terrible all season ranking Top 10 in passing and rushing touchdowns allowed. Last week’s result over the Saints was more a case of the Falcons’ talented offensive players enjoying a big game, which could cause some similar problems this week for Carolina.
The Falcons have won seven of their last 10-games against the Panthers and are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven. Atlanta beat the Panthers comfortably 24-10 on the road last year, and while this game will likely be much closer, it’s worth sticking with the Falcons offence to do the talking even if Christian McCaffrey piles on plenty of points.
Tip: Back the Falcons to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.92
Nothing stings more than an overtime loss to your division rivals.
The 49ers are no longer undefeated after falling to the Seahawks 27-24 last week. On one hand, the Niners now have plenty of work to do if they wish to secure the NFC West, while on the other, they no longer have the burden of being the only undefeated team in the league.
Another divisional game awaits this week as San Francisco hosts the Cardinals. There’s nothing pretty about Arizona’s 3-6-1 record, or their three-game losing streak. But if you’ve paid attention to the Cardinals over the last fortnight, you’ll know Kliff Kingsbury’s side is on the verge of a big win.
The Cardinals came very close to upsetting the Niners only two weeks ago at home. A late fourth quarter comeback fell short by three points, while Arizona also fell by a similar margin to the Bucs last week in Tampa Bay.
Playing in San Francisco is never easy, especially against a hungry defence looking to make amends. That said, the Cardinals offence has already shown they can put up points against the Niners, which makes the 11.5-point line look very tempting.
Jimmy Garoppolo had a horror game last week throwing for only 248-yards and a touchdown. Several passes in overtime were nearly picked, and with his favourite tight end George Kittle set for another weekened on the sidelines, there’s every reason to believe in Arizona’s 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Cover the Line (+11 Points) @ $1.92
Would you believe this is only the third time the Raiders have been favoured by double-digits since 2003?
Oakland stands a 40% chance of making the playoffs on the heels of last week’s win over the Chargers, but Jon Gruden’s men need to ensure they take the winless Bengals seriously on Monday.
Cincinnati’s lackluster defensive line was torn apart by the Ravens last week. The Raiders don’t possess the same kind of offensive talent as Baltimore, but this could still turn out to be a big game from Josh Jacobs against one of the worst rush defences in the league.
The Bengals have won six of their last eight games over the Raiders, although a lot has changed since these two sides last met last season.
Oakland’s calling card this season has been their defence. The Raiders have been outstanding against the run allowing the eighth-fewest yards, and it just so happens Bengals running back Joe Mixon is currently questionable with an ankle sprain.
A.J. Green’s status also remains a mystery, making it almost impossible to back the Bengals this week. That said, double-digit spreads and the Raiders don’t exactly go hand in hand, so don’t rule out the Bengals from keeping this close.
Tip: Back the Bengals to Cover the Line (+10 Points) @ $1.92
The Patriots have been installed as 3.5-point favourites this week as they hope to bounce-back from their loss to the Ravens before the bye.
New England’s defence proved no match for the ground game in Baltimore, but with a week to get things right, you just know Bill Belichick’s side will be looking to make a statement at home.
The Patriots remain unbeaten at home, but they will have their hands full with the in-form Eagles. This isn’t a must-win game for Philadelphia, but plenty rides on the result as the Eagles find themselves tied at 5-4 alongside the Cowboys in the East.
Philly’s most famous win over the Patriots came during Super Bowl LII, but believe it or not, if there’s one last thing to hang your hat on, it’s this: since 2015, the Patriots are 7-1 against the spread following the bye.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Cover the Line (-3.5 Points) @ $1.92
This is far and away the most fascinating game of Week 11 as both teams still stand a very minor chance of making the playoffs.
For Chicago, last week’s win over Detroit was important for a number of reasons. Aside from getting the wood over their division rival, the Bears also improved to 4-5 to remain firmly in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, weren’t quite so fortunate as the Rams lost a stinker to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Jared Goff’s lost season continued as the Rams’ multi-million-dollar man threw for only 243-yards and two interceptions. The Rams’ shoddy offensive line made life almost impossible against one of the best defences in the league, making life near impossible for Los Angeles at 5-4.
Nobody would blame you if chose to steer clear of this game entirely. For those game punters looking to turn a profit, however, look no further than the Under.
The Bears offence was made to look better than it actually is last week against a below average Lions defence. Throw in the Rams’ offensive line and Goff’s accuracy issues, and you have the makings for a low-scoring game.
The Total has also gone Under in four of Los Angeles’ last five games and four of Chicago’s last six on the road. It’s a low Total, but don’t be surprised if this one turns into a stalemate.
Tip: Under 41.5 Total Points @ $1.92
You should’ve had this one circled on your calendar long ago – it’s just a shame the Chargers haven’t lived up to their end of the bargain.
After manhandling the Packers a fortnight ago, Los Angeles backed up their big performance with a narrow two-point loss to the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.
It’s going to take something extra special for Los Angeles to make the playoffs from here, but they can at least inch a little bit closer against their division rivals this week at home.
The Chiefs also have plenty to play as they look to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Titans. Having Patrick Mahomes back under center was a welcome sign, but the more time that goes on, the more painfully clear it becomes that the Chiefs can’t stop the run.
Los Angeles’ offence is a complete guessing game from week to week with Philip Rivers completing most of his passes to the other team. That said, the Chargers’ ground game has shown real signs of life since Melvin Gordon returned, which should create havoc against Kansas City’s defensive line.
Gordon has averaged close to 60-yards per-game against the Chiefs throughout his career, making this one a potential Monday Night upset.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line (+4.0 Points) @ $1.88
2018
Name something more iconic than Week 11 in the NFL, we’ll wait.
This is the main course, – the piece de reistance – a.k.a, the week that should separate the contenders from the pretenders and hopefully give us a clear glimpse into the playoff picture.
The Bills, Browns, Dolphins Jets, Patriots, and 49ers all take a seat this week, but really, one question remains: who should you be backing and sacking?
We’ve not only previewed all 13 games, we’ve also taken a close look at each team in our full 2018 NFL Week 11 Preview below!
Seattle Seahawks (4-5):
The Seahawks played about as well as you can against the Rams last week, at least for about 3.5 quarters, anyway.
It took Seattle — led by a brilliant drive from Russell Wilson – six plays to find Nick Vannett for the opening touchdown. In the end the Seahawks lost by two touchdowns, but the scoreboard hardly reflects how close Seattle came to pulling off the upset.
In a nutshell, Seattle continue to improve each week. They look up and about, and for the first time all season, so does the running game.
After drafting Rashaad Penny in the first-round, only to watch him warm the pine for more than two and a half months, the rookie broke through with 108-yards and a touchdown against LA’s elite defensive line.
There was also plenty of creativity on the playcalling front, with screens and tosses to wide receiver Tyler Lockett, while our very own Aussie, Michael Dickson, is also worth a mention.
Special teams makes or breaks games, and after 70-yard punt in the second quarter, the 22-year old backed it up with a booming kick to pin the Rams at the one-yard line in the fourth.
The only letdown for Seattle was two crucial mistakes: a sloppy onside kick, and poor protection on Dante Fowler’s strip-sack. This is a dangerous Seattle side that deserves a spot in the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers (4-4-1):
The Packers got themselves back to .500 thanks to a big win over the Dolphins last week, and for the most part, there was plenty of encouraging signs.
First and foremost, it’s taken two months to get to this point, but it’s great to see Aaron Jones being used in the red zone. The second-year back saw a season high 15 carries last week, good for 145-yards and a pair of scores.
Likewise, it was nice to see the Packers’ defence hold their own when the Dolphins threatened. Green Bay have been one of the better teams statistically when it comes to points against, and after holding Miami to just four field goals, it’s not hard to understand why.
There were some calls for concern though, particularly on special teams – which doesn’t bode well ahead of Green Bay’s trip to Seattle.
The Packers gave the Dolphins two great chances to score last week: one being on the back of a fumbled kick return, and the other being a blocked punt.
Against Pete Carroll’s skilled special teams unit, those mistakes will easily cost the Packers a win this week. And for that reason alone, the Seahawks are worth your money in a close one.
Tip: Back the Seahawks To Win 1-6 @ $3.75
Baltimore Ravens (4-5):
A month ago the Ravens looked on their way to a playoff berth, now, it’s anyone’s guess.
At least the news on Joe Flacco is encouraging – the veteran quarterback will start in Week 11 if he’s healthy. Of course, you could make a case for the alternative, as backup rookie Lamar Jackson might be the spark the Ravens’ offense desperately needs.
If one thing is for sure, the Ravens enter this game against the Bengals as the favourite. Despite their struggles on offense, Baltimore have allowed the second-fewest passing yards this season, and have also been quite handy when it comes to stopping the run.
The Bengals have won two straight over the Ravens, including a 34-23 loss in Week 2, but Baltimore doesn’t need anything special to win this game. Sound, mistake-free defence will be enough to rattle the Bengals offensive line.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4):
How do the wheels fall off a team with a winning record you ask? Simple: don’t play defence.
Cincinnati fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin on Tuesday following last week’s 51-14 loss to the Saints. The Bengals’ defence ranks Top 5 in passing yards and rushing yards allowed this season, and as we suggested last week, the numbers don’t lie – Cincy were always due for major regression.
With seven weeks left to play, the Bengals might look a question mark, but really, this isn’t hard to figure out.
The firing of Austin leaves head coach Marvin Lewis as the replacement defensive coordinator, and after hiring former Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson on the same day, this already has disaster written all over it.
Cincinnati are 8-17 in their last 25 games against the Ravens on the road, so really, there’s not much else to say here. The only consolation is the Bengals play the Browns (twice) and the Raiders in the coming month.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Beat The Line
Atlanta Falcons (4-5):
False alarm, the Falcons aren’t who we thought they were.
It was tough to read too much into their Week 9 win over the Redskins, and as we saw last week, Atlanta were exposed as pretenders.
More specifically though, it was the defence that provided the letdown. The Falcons’ have had a tough time defending the pass, but it was the ground game that tormented Atlanta last week, led by Browns rookie running back Nick Chubb, who finished with 176-yards and a touchdown to his name.
Atlanta have a lot going for them offensively – in fact, they rank sixth in the league in points scored. They hold a handy 5-2 record against Dallas as well, but will that be enough to challenge Dallas’ defence, a unit sky-high on confidence right now?
If Ezekiel Elliott has anything to say about it, probably not.
Dallas Cowboys (4-5):
A week ago head coach Jason Garrett looked well on the hotseat, but after knocking off the reigning Super Bowl champs (in Philly mind you), who knows where this Cowboys team is heading.
We could talk about Ezekiel Elliott and his 151-yard game, but how about Dallas’ secondary?
It was physical, fierce, and intimidating, particularly when it mattered most. The Cowboys’ corners and safeties bullied the Eagles’ receivers all game, forcing Carson Wentz to take chances and force throws into tight windows.
The result was a 27-20 win, but it was so much more than that. The Cowboys’ o-line picked up the blitz and bought plenty of time for Dak Prescott, and would you believe it, Garrett actually came up with some ballsy playcalls!
Whether it was a fake punt or Dak’s quarterback sneak, the Cowboys kept the Eagles guessing, which is exactly what we’ve needed from Dallas all season.
It also helps when you can hand the ball off to Zeke and run it down your opponent’s throat, while at the same time holding your own with the Eagles threatening in the red zone. Now the question becomes, can Dallas do it all again?
Tip: Back the Cowboys To Win @ $2.50
New York Giants (2-7):
Odell Beckham Jr. still likes his team’s chances at a playoff berth following last week’s come-from-behind win over the 49ers, but what chance do the Giants really have against the Bucs?
If you thought Eli Manning played a great game last week in San Francisco, get in line, you couldn’t be more wrong.
The two-time Super Bowl champ was lucky head coach Pat Shurmur knew how to manage the clock, because Eli’s overthrown passes on the final drive nearly cost the Giants the game.
Fortunately though, floating balls against the Bucs secondary won’t worry New York. Tampa Bay are still one of the worst defensive teams in the league when it comes to stopping the pass, and it just so happens, they’ve also allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns.
The focus for New York will be simple: give the ball to Saquon Barkley and look for Evan Engram in the flat since OBJ will likely draw plenty of coverage.
The Giants are 5-1 at home against Tampa Bay, so taking them at the line looks the play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6):
For some strange reason the Bucs were the favourites last week against Washington.
Looking back, that might have been the storyline of the week considering Tampa Bay managed 501-yards of total offense but simply couldn’t stop turning the ball over.
Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions last week, but the scary part is, he’ll receive the start again this over Jameis Winston on Sunday.
It’s becoming painfully clear that the Bucs are quite happy to keep Winston – who is supposedly their quarterback of the future – on the sidelines to remain healthy. He’s due $20 million next year, while in the mean-time, the Bucs continue to tank.
The defence is gassed, the coach is on the way out the door, and the Bucs have a 1-7 record in their last eight road games. Do we need to say more?
Tip: Back the Giants to Beat The Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.91
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6):
It only took the Colts seven plays to score last week, and from there, the Jaguars were always on the back foot.
To be fair, Jacksonville answered on a perfect 80-yard seam route to Donte Moncrief on the next drive, but for the fifth week in a row, it’s blatantly clear that there is something wrong in the locker room with this team.
In particular, the defence looks a mess. Blown assignments were commonplace against the Colts, as Andrew Luck had time for a cup of coffee in the pocket while he peeled off large chunks of yards.
It all comes down to communication, and that’s clearly what Jacksonville are missing. You can’t blame last week’s loss on Blake Bortles – he threw for 320-yards and two scores remember – no, it’s all on the defence and a few costly mistakes.
At the start of the year this looked a game that could likely to decide the AFC playoff picture. One disgruntled defence later, you can’t even think about backing the Jags.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1):
Note to self: don’t ever write off the Steelers in the month of November.
In the matter of two weeks the AFC North has gone from anyone’s guess to complete meltdown mode, and wouldn’t you know it, Pittsburgh unscathed with what is likely to be the third seed in the playoffs.
It would take a miracle to lose the stranglehold on the division from here, and although Le’Veon Bell won’t be reporting for duty next week (or the rest of the season for that matter), Pittsburgh should feel pretty good about their chances against a Jacksonville team that can’t take a trick.
The Steelers reverted back to the tried and true method of pocket pressure last week in their win over the Panthers, and boy did it work. Pittsburgh held Cam Newton in check both in the air and on the ground, and if the pass rush executes again this week against Blake Bortles, we’re probably looking at a blowout.
Tip: Back the Steelers 13-18 @ $6.00
Washington Redskins (6-3):
They won’t win any awards for best performance, but they will win the NFC East at this rate.
Washington’s beatdown of the Bucs last week saw them earn a two-game lead in the division, a crucial advantage at this point in the year. Whether or not the Redskins stand a chance in the playoffs is a completely different conversation, but right now, the Skins are a tough team to beat.
Father time has been kind to Washington, something not a lot of teams can attest to. Adrian Peterson again rushed for 60-plus yards last week, carrying the weight of the team squarely on his back.
It’s fitting both of these unconvincing playoff bound teams meet this week, but it’s tough to back against the Redskins and their 6-2 record at home.
Houston Texans (6-3):
Houston’s six-game winning streak makes them a serious dark horse heading toward the playoffs, and with a 3-2 record on the road, no one would blame you for backing the Texans as the favourite.
It took a few weeks, but Deshaun Watson has come along nicely following last year’s season-ending ACL tear, now looking comfortable in the pocket on his way to 17 total touchdowns so far this season.
As with any team, there are concerns, though. The sacks continue to pile up, and the running game continuing to prove hit and miss, the Texans’ Super Bowl hopes once again hang entirely on their quarterback.
As far as this game goes, the Texans are 3-9 in their last 12 road games, so that’s something to keep in mind. They haven’t travelled to Washington since 2010, and as we’ve seen with teams like Green Bay and Carolina, that unfamiliarity with FedEx Field often plays a part.
Tip: Back the Redskins To Win @ $2.25
Indianapolis Colts (4-5):
It’s safe to go ahead and make a few assumptions about the Colts now.
Firstly, this might be the best running back committee in the league, led by Jordan Wilkins last week, who rushed for 53-yards in the win over the Jaguars.
Secondly, the Colts offensive line is for real. They’ve allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league behind the Saints, which in turn leant itself to another convincing game from Andrew Luck, who has now thrown for at least three touchdowns in six consecutive games.
The rebirth of tight end Eric Ebron also continues to amaze, as the 25-year old now ranks fourth in the league in touchdown receptions.
And last but not last but not least, the Colts’ are making the most of the game. They were seriously beaten in time of possession last week, but thanks to Luck’s scrambling and decision making ability, they walked away with a 24-17 win.
This week, the Colts will face one of the toughest defence’s in the league, but Indy have beaten the Titans eight times in their last 10 meetings.
Tennessee Titans (5-4):
Revenge games are everything in the NFL, and there’s nothing quite like sticking it to the Patriots.
The Titans made Bill Belichick look foolish last week as the NFL’s greatest ever coach fell victim to his former assistant, and now Tennessee head coach, Mike Vrabel.
It wasn’t a close win, it was a blowout for the Titans, as their defence once again showed that it’s one of the best in the league by swarming Tom Brady up the middle.
Brady was held without a touchdown in the loss, but it was also a big day for the Titans’ running game, as well as wide receiver Corey Davis, who put up his second 100-yard game of the season.
As we’re quickly finding out, the Colts are no easy-beat, especially when Luck gets time in the pocket. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they only fare middle of the pack when it comes to sacks, although their secondary should be able to limit the damage in the air.
This game figures as a huge teller. Are the Titans for real? Or is this all smoke and mirrors?
While we wait to find out, keep it simple and go with the Points market.
Tip: Back Under 48.5 Total Points @ $1.91
Detroit Lions (3-6):
The Lions entered tank mode as soon as they dealt Golden Tate to the Eagles a fortnight ago, but no one expected things to deescalate this quickly.
Detroit lost 34-22 last week against the Bears, although the scoreboard actually did the Lions some justice. Matt Patricia’s side was completely outclassed in all areas, but none moreso than the passing game, where Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky had a field day.
It’s well known Detroit can’t stop the run, and with cornerback Darius Slay missing last week, they couldn’t stop the pass, either. Trubisky carved the Lions for 355-yards and three touchdowns, while on the other side, Matthew Stafford threw two picks.
The Lions managed to convert only four of their 15 third-down attempts last week, and also gave up six sacks in the process. It looks extremely tough to bet on Detroit in this game, let alone for the rest of the season, after that performance.
Carolina Panthers (6-3):
Pressure can do strange things to a quarterback.
Cam Newton looked lost last week against Pittsburgh, managing just 193-yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the Panthers’ 52-21 loss.
It was a reminder to all that when you take away Cam’s legs, Carolina become quite one dimensional, as the running game as a unit tallied only 95-yards.
The problem with Carolina’s playcalling is they can sometimes try to do too much. Bootlegs, play-action, and run/pass options are great when they work, but not when your offensive line can’t pick up a simple blitz.
Fortunately, this week the Panthers will have it easy against a Lions team that has allowed the ninth most rushing-yards all year.
Carolina are 6-1 in their last seven games when playing Detroit, and should be able to rely on some fast-tempo, creative playcalling to catch out a Lions defence that is struggling with the basics.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Beat The Line (-4 Points) @ $1.95
Los Angeles Chargers (7-2):
The Chargers cruised to a 20-6 win over the Raiders last week, but the Bolts weren’t their usual well-oiled selves.
By all accounts, Philip Rivers is having an MVP-season. Two of 10 on third down, though? That just doesn’t cut the mustard, especially against one of the worst defences in football.
Without Melvin Gordon, it’s fair to say the Chargers could have lost last week in Oakland, but thankfully the fourth-year running back chipped in with yet another 90-plus yard rushing performance.
This week, the Chargers return home to face the Broncos, a team that’s had their numbers in recent years. Denver are 5-2 against the Chargers in LA, and after the bye week, the Broncos certainly have the talent to stop Gordon in the running game.
Denver Broncos (3-6):
With just three wins next to their name, most teams would be calling it quits and looking ahead to next year – not the Broncos, though.
Head coach Vance Joseph still thinks Denver can remain competitive for the next six weeks, but it’s safe to say, with the Chiefs heading the division followed by the Chargers at 7-2, that looks pretty unlikely.
The Broncos have had two-weeks to stew on their close call against the Texans in Week 9, a game they lost 17-19. Denver’s secondary was torched by DeAndre Hopkins on the day, but statistically speaking, the Broncos have every right to feel confident matching up against the Chargers.
Denver’s defence has been sneakily strong this year, allowing the fifth fewest passing completions. Stopping Gordon will be the key this week, but if Denver can plug up the lanes and stop him from getting around the edge, it will force Philip Rivers into passing on early downs.
The Broncos’ record speaks for itself against the Chargers: they’ve won seven of the last 10. Well-rested with a bright running game led by Phillip Lindsay, this is an upset worth taking.
Tip: Back the Broncos To Win @ $3.80
Arizona Cardinals (2-7):
The Cardinals might be lucky to win another game this season, but there are signs of promise as far as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen is concerned.
The first round draft pick faced his toughest test of the season last week in Kansas City, and for the most part, there was a lot to like.
Arizona chose to keep it simple early and hand the ball off to David Johnson whenever they could, a clever strategy allowing Rosen to ease into the game and the harsh environment of Arrowhead.
When he got time in the pocket. Rosen stood firm and delivered, leading two key scoring drives at the beginning of both halves.
Of course, it all just boils down to talent and what’s surrounding him, which isn’t much. The defence made some crucial stops on third down last week, but for Arizona to compete, they need to draft some serious talent at receiver next year.
There’s plenty of untapped potential here, and this is a game the Cardinals can win if they can find a way to convert on 3rd and long.
Oakland Raiders (1-8):
The Raiders would want to hope this upcoming offseason is pretty epic.
Last week’s 20-6 loss to the Raiders was another kick in the nuts for a franchise already down on confidence. Derek Carr’s frustrations must be close to boiling point after throwing for zero touchdown passes for the fourth time this season, while the defence was once again gashed on the ground.
Aside from draft picks and the future, there’s very little to talk about with the Raiders right now. Oakland are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games on the road, and since they haven’t travelled to Arizona since 2010, this looks like one of the rare occasions where the Cardinals are worth your coin.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Beat The Line (-8 Points) @ $1.87
New Orleans Saints (8-1):
Just about any team can beat up on the Bengals’ defence right now, but the Saints accomplished something pretty special in last week’s 51-14 win.
New Orleans committed just one penalty during the entire game, which is fitting considering the Saints are the second-least penalised team in the league.
That kind of discipline will come in handy for the Saints as they host the Eagles this week. New Orleans and Philly have split their last 10 meetings five games apiece, but it’s the Saints’ 11-1 record at home that makes them hard to back against.
The Saints have been desperately trying to find a fill-in wide receiver over the last fortnight, and after Dez Bryant’s signing ended prematurely with a torn achilles, New Orleans has brought in Brandon Marshall on a one-year deal.
That likely doesn’t mean much for this game, but it only strengthens New Orleans as a team, who now sit joint Super Bowl favourites with the Rams and the Chiefs.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-5):
The Eagles began last week’s game against the Cowboys with a three and out, and everything basically went downhill from there.
This conversation has to start with Philly’s horrible offensive line, which was the main reason for Carson Wentz’s interception on the very next drive. The Cowboys did a great job of bringing pressure from the edge, and after being sacked twice, it became clear pretty quickly that the Eagles couldn’t pick up the blitz.
Of course, that’s just the first on a long list of problems.
The non-existent ground game is not only forcing the Eagles to throw more, it’s also failing to provide blocks on passing downs. Wendell Smallwood is a great pass-catcher, but for the most part, it’s mind-boggling why the Eagles haven’t trusted Corey Clement with the bulk share of carries.
Last but not least, Doug Pederson’s coaching creativity seems to have dried up – the Eagles ran just one trick play all game, and that came in the fourth quarter.
The offensive line can’t protect, the Eagles’ receivers were bullied by the Cowboys, and they are 2-5 when playing New Orleans. Even though the $4.00 odds about Philly seem nice, you can’t take the Eagles this week.
Tip: Back the Saints 7-12 @ $4.75
Chicago Bears (6-3):
Chicago fans, we give you permission to get excited.
The Bears’ beatdown over the Lions last week was convincing, but it’s just about what we expected from Chicago’s offense against Detroit’s miserable secondary.
Now for the real test. The jury is still out on quarterback Mitch Trubisky, and although he threw for 300-yards and three touchdowns last week, how will he fare against a well-rested Vikings defence fresh from the bye?
Chicago are 14-3 when playing at home against Minnesota, so that’s good news. Their pass rush also looked back to full strength last week with Khalil Mack piling up a pair of sacks, although to be fair, it isn’t the defence that’s in question.
This game firmly comes down to Trubisky and whether or not he can make accurate throws under pressure. We saw him struggle at home against New England a month ago when the Patriots brought pressure up the middle, and that’s exactly what the Bears should expect to see again on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1):
In their last seven meetings with Chicago, the Vikings have won six. Their trip to Chicago last year saw Minnesota walk away with a narrow 20-17 victory, and given the Vikings are also one of the Top 3 best sides when it comes to stopping the run, we should be in for another nail-biter.
For the Bears, when you take the run game away, you place a lot of faith in Trubisky, which is concerning.
For the Vikings, even if Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray are held quiet, at least you can rest knowing Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen are probably good for triple digits through the air.
Minnesota are 2-1-1 on the road this year, and have lost just one of their last five games. The Bears’ pass rush will likely give the immobile Kirk Cousins problems in the pocket, but if he can step up and find targets down field, the Vikings are going to make this look relatively easy.
Tip: Back the Vikings To Win @ $2.25
Los Angeles Rams (9-1):
Should the Rams win and the Seahawks lose, Los Angeles can become the first team since the 72’ Dolphins and the 07’ Patriots to clinch the division by Week 11.
Now that the game has been moved away from Mexico City due to poor turf conditions and back to the LA Coliseum, the Rams stand every chance with home-field advantage, and to keep the milestones coming, this will also be LA’s first Monday Night Football game at the Coliseum since 1979.
To be truthful, there’s no doubt LA got lucky against the Seahawks last week. After Marcus Peters’ interception was called back for a hold, Dante Fowler’s unsportsmanlike penalty nearly cost the Rams the game, but like all good teams do, the Rams still found a way to squeak out a win.
This week the Rams enter as the favourite, but they’ll have to resume duties without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
How that effects the team long term is unknown, however, what we do know is the Rams can’t play defence – they’ve now allowed the sixth most rushing yards in the league.
Jet sweeps and Todd Gurley’s brilliance is one thing, but it just feels like the Rams are starting to slip away a little. Kansas City fans travel, and that will mean a lot in this statement game for both sides.
Take the Chiefs to become the outright Super Bowl favourites.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-1):
Kansas City failed to cover their 14.5 spread against Arizona last week, but they did however, improve to 9-1 to further cement their lead in the AFC West.
It took the Chiefs just four plays to find Tyreek Hill for six, but really, this game hung in the balance up until the midway point of the fourth quarter. Arizona trailed 14-20 after Josh Rosen made some big plays, only further illustrating how terrible Kansas City’s defence is.
Aside from the secondary though, the Chiefs’ offensive line was caught napping on third down on three separate occasions. The Cardinals brought strong pressure on the edge, and although the Chiefs can burn you down the field, the problem is, sometimes you have to wait for those receivers to become open.
This week, don’t expect defence from either side, which favours the Chiefs heavily. They are still forcing teams to over-commit to Hill, and when that happens, guys like Kareem Hunt normally burn you on a screen or flip pass for 30-yards.
Tip: Back the Chiefs To Win @ $2.50
2017
We are edging closer and closer to the NFL Playoffs and there are a stack of important games set to take take.
The biggest game on the weekend is on Monday afternoon when the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Dallas Cowboys in a huge NFC East clash before the Seattle Seahawks host the Atlanta Falcons in another massive game on Tuesday.
We have analysed every single game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2017 NFL Week 11 tips can be found below!
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won four games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Tennessee Titans as clear favourites.
Pittsburgh haven’t made it look easy in recent weeks against either the Detroit Lions or the Indianapolis Colts, but they have still been able to get the job done.
The Steelers have won six of their past seven games as home favourites and they are 4-3 against the line in this scenario.
Tennessee have also won four games on the trot and they are locked in a battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars for the AFC South title.
The Titans have held their composure in their past three games, but they will need to go to another level to compete with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Tennessee have won one of their past three games as away underdogs, but they have covered the line in only two of their past eight games on the road.
Pittsburgh should win this game comfortably and the line of 6.5 points will not be enough.
Back Pittsburgh To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the other team in the hunt for the AFC South Title and they will start this clash with the Cleveland Browns as dominant favourites.
Jacksonville didn’t make it look easy, but they were able to extend their winning streak with an overtime win over the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend.
The Jaguars have won three of their past eight games on the road, but their record against the line away from home is a positive 6-2 over the past 12 months.
The likelihood of the Browns finishing this season without a win increases every week and it is impossible to back them with any confidence.
They have won only one of their past 15 games and they are 3-6 against the line as home underdogs.
This is a game that the market has gotten just about right and I will be staying out from a betting perspective.
No Bet
This game was originally set to take place during the opening weekend of the season, but was postponed due to Hurricane Irma.
A great deal was expected from both these teams at the start of the 2017 NFL season, but neither has been able to deliver.
Miami have lost three games in a row, but they will still start this clash as narrow favourites.
The Dolphins have won their past three games as home favourites and they are a middling 1-1-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended a lengthy losing streak with a win over the New York Jets, but they were still far from impressive.
Tampa Bay have won two of their past six games as away underdogs for a small profit and they are 3-1-2 against the line in this situation.
It is impossible to trust either of these teams on their recent form and this is another clash that I am keen to stay out of.
No Bet
There is very little between these two sides ahead of this encounter.
The Green Bay Packers returned to winning form against the Chicago Bears last weekend and they will go into this game as only slight outsiders.
Green Bay have won their past six games as home favourites, but they are 1-2 when they play at home as underdogs and they are a tough team to back with any confidence without Aaron Rodgers.
The Baltimore Ravens went down to the Tennessee Titans last weekend and they have now lost three of their past four games.
Baltimore have lost their past two games as away favourites and they are another team that it tough to trust.
The real value in this clash lies in the Over in Total Points betting markets.
The Over has saluted in six of the past nine games played by the Packers at home and has been a highlight profitable betting play in Ravens games over the past 12 months.
Back Over 38.5 Points
This is a big game in the NFC North as the Detroit Lions must keep winning to keep their NFL Playoffs hopes alive.
Detroit made it two wins on the trot with a comfortable victory over the Cleveland Browns and they will start this clash with the Chicago Bears as clear favourites.
The Lions have won seven of their past eight games against the Bears and winning away from home has not been an issue.
Chicago have not been disgraced in any of their games this season, but they let a golden opportunity to beat the Green Bay Packers slip last weekend.
The Bears have won three of their past eight games as home underdogs, but they are a highly profitable 7-1 against the line in this scenario.
There is rarely much between these two sides – despite the dominance of the Lions head-to-head – and the Bears can cover the line with a small start.
Back Chicago To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
The Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams both take a 7-2 record into what is one of the biggest games of the weekend.
It is the Vikings that will start this clash as narrow favourites and they have now won five games on the trot.
Minnesota have won four of their past six games as home favourites for a small profit and they have an identical record against the line.
Los Angeles have won their past three games in very impressive fashion and the improvement that they have made this season has been nothing short of outstanding.
The Rams have won two of their past five games as away underdogs, but their record against the line when giving away a start is poor.
Minnesota have the ability to control this game and they should be able to do just that.
Back Minnesota To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
There is very little between the Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals in betting ahead of this clash.
Arizona have won a game with Drew Stanton under centre and they were not disgraced against the Seattle Seahawks last weekend.
The Cardinals are 3-2 as away favourites over the past 12 months and they have been a losing betting play against the line in this scenario.
The loss of DeShaun Watson has been felt by the Texans and they have not been the same team without him under centre.
They have won only one of their past three games as home underdogs and their record against the line in front of their home fans is poor.
This is a game with limited betting value and I will be staying out.
No Bet
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the shortest-priced favourites in the NFL this weekend.
Kansas City have lost three of their past four games, but this is a game that they really should win comfortably.
The Chiefs have won three of their past four games as away favourites and their record against the line in this scenario is just as strong.
The New York Giants have won only one game this season and their season hit a new low when they gave the San Francisco 49ers their first win of the season last weekend.
New York have won only three of their past 11 games as underdogs and they have covered the line in just two of their past seven games at home.
The New York defence will be no match for the Kansas City offence and this game has blowout written all over it.
Back Kansas City To Beat The Line (-10 Points)
The New Orleans Saints have been one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season and they will start this clash with the Washington Redskins as clear favourites.
New Orleans made it seven wins on the trot with a big victory over the Buffalo Bills and they have turned into genuine Super Bowl contenders.
The Saints have won five of their past six games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins.
Washington have lost three of their past four games and they have really struggled for consistency this season.
The Redskins have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs and they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this situation.
New Orleans can continue on their winning ways and they can cover the line in the process.
Back New Orleans To Beat The Line (-7.5 Points)
The Buffalo Bills may have a winning record, but they have made the controversial decision to bench quarterback Tyrod Taylor in favour of Nathan Peterman.
This move has led to markets being suspended for this clash and at this stage we are unable to make any recommendations.
More To Come
The Denver Broncos have lost five games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash as narrow favourites.
Denver have completely fallen apart on both sides of the football in recent weeks and they were extremely poor against both the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots.
The Broncos have won three of their past five games as home favourites and they are a middling 2-1-2 against the line in this scenario.
The Cincinnati Bengals lost a close game at the hands of the Tennessee Titans and this looks set to be another season of mediocrity.
Cincinnati have lost their past six games as away underdogs and they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
It is impossible to trust either of these teams and this is another game that I am more than happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
No Bet
The Oakland Raiders have taken their home game to Estadio Azteca in Mexico.
Oakland went into the bye on the back of a win over the Miami Dolphins, but the New England Patriots obviously represent a much tougher challenge.
The Raiders have won only two of their past seven games as underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
New England just keep on winning and they continue to be one of the best betting sides in the NFL.
The Patriots have won their past nine games as away favourites and they are an imposing 7-2 against the line in this scenario.
The line of 6.5 points will not be enough and New England are one of the safest betting plays of the weekend.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
This is a massive game in the NFC East and a win for the Philadelphia Eagles would all but secure the division.
Philadelphia have won seven games in a row in most impressive fashion and they will start this clash with the Dallas Cowboys as clear favourites.
The Eagles have won eight of their past nine games as favourites and they are 7-2 against the line when giving away a start.
Dallas will go into this clash without star running back Ezekiel Elliot, but an even bigger loss could be linebacker Sean Lee.
The Cowboys defence is not the same unit without Lee on the field and this is going to be a very tough assignment for the Cowboys against the high-powered Eagles offence.
Philadelphia are the benchmark in the NFC East and they will be too strong for this depleted Cowboys outfit.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (-5 Points)
This is another massive game in the NFC.
The Seattle Seahawks returned to winning form against the Arizona Cardinals and they will go into this clash with the Atlanta Falcons as narrow favourites.
Seattle have been tough to beat at home this season and they have won six of their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 4-4 against the line in this scenario.
Atlanta produced their best performance of the season to beat the Dallas Cowboys last weekend and they need to keep winning to have any chance of making the NFL Playoffs.
The Falcons have won five of their past seven games on the road, but they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
The value in this clash lies in the Over in the Total Points betting market.
The line has been set at 45 points and that mark has been covered in six of the past seven games played between these two sides.
Back Over 45 Points
2016/2017
There is now less than two months left in the NFL regular season and the battle for positions in the NFL Playoffs is now on in earnest.
The action gets underway on Friday when the Carolina Panthers tackle the New Orleans Saints in a crucial NFC South clash.
A number of teams will start this weekend as short-priced favourites and this is the sort of week when there is likely to be a number of upsets.
We have analysed every game in week 11 of the 2016 NFL season and you can find our tips for every single game below.
Both these teams are quickly losing touch with the Atlanta Falcons and this is almost a must-win clash.
Carolina went down to Kansas City last weekend, but they will still start this clash as clear favourites.
The Panthers have won seven of their past ten games as home favourites for a clear profit, while they have an identical record against the line in this scenario.
New Orleans were arguably unlucky to have their winning streak ended by the Denver Broncos and their recent form has been strong.
The Saints have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear profit, while they are 4-1-1 against the line in this situation.
There is not as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Saints are good value at their current quote of $2.55.
Back New Orleans To Win @ $2.55
The Cleveland Browns are still chasing their first win of the season and it is no surprise that the Pittsburgh Steelers will start this clash as clear favourites.
Pittsburgh went down to the Dallas Cowboys in an absolute thriller last weekend and they have now lost four games on the trot.
The Steelers have won just three of their past seven games as away favourites for a clear loss, while their record is 2-1-4 against the line.
Cleveland continue to struggle and not only have they lost their past six games as home underdogs, but they have an identical record against the line for a clear loss.
Pittsburgh should be able to return to winning form, but there is no value at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting standpoint.
No Bet
The Dallas Cowboys continued their stellar season with an incredible win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and they will start this game as clear favourites,
Dallas just keep finding ways to win and they have now won two of their past three games as home favourites, while they have the same record against the line.
Baltimore were far too good for the Cleveland Browns, but this is obviously a much tougher challenge.
The Ravens have won just one of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they do have a 3-2 record against the line in this scenario.
Dallas are deserving favourites, but there is no as much between these two teams as the market suggests and the Ravens are a good bet to beat the line with a start of seven points.
Back Baltimore To Beat The Line (+7 Points)
The Detroit Lions went into the bye with four wins from their past five games and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
Detroit have won three of their past four games as home favourites for a clear profit, while they have an identical record against the line in this scenario.
Jacksonville suffered their fourth straight loss at the hands of the Houston Texans and this truly has been a horror season.
The Jaguars have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear loss and they are 2-1-4 against the line in this situation.
Detroit should prove too strong for Jacksonville and they are a good bet to cover the line of 6.5 points.
Back Detroit To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
This is a crucial game for both sides as they attempt to keep in touch with the Houston Texans at the top of the AFC South.
Indianapolis will start this clash as clear favourites and they have won four of their past six games as home favourites, while they have the same record against the line.
Tennessee have struggled for consistency this season and their record as away underdogs is not great – they are 2-5 both in head-to-head betting and against the line.
Indianapolis are a tough team to trust, but they should prove too strong for Tennessee and the line of three points will not be enough.
Back Indianapolis To Beat The Line (-3 Points)
Both these sides go into this clash on the back of losses and it is the Cincinnati Bengals that will start this game as clear favourites.
The Bengals have won four of their past seven games as home favourites for a loss, while they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.
Buffalo have struggled defensively in the past three weeks and there is far to much pressure on Tyrod Taylor and the offence.
The Bills have won just one of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss, while they are 1-2-3 against the line in this situation.
It is tough to trust either of these teams from a betting standpoint and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.
No Bet
The Kansas City Chiefs have flown under the radar, but they have recorded five wins on the trot with tough defensive efforts.
Kansas City have won their past eight games as home favourites, but they are only 2-1-5 against the line in this situation.
Tampa Bay returned to winning form against Chicago last weekend and they have won four of their past seven games as away underdogs for a clear profit, while they have the same record against the line in this situation.
This is another game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to let it go through to the keeper.
No Bet
The New York Giants have recorded four straight wins and they are set to start this clash as clear favourites.
New York have won three of their past five games as home favourites for a narrow loss, while they are 2-3 against the line in this scenario.
It has been another season to forget for the Chicago Bears and they are a tough to trust from a betting perspective.
The Bears have won just two of their past seven games as away underdogs for a loss, while they have the same record against the line.
The one betting market that does stand out from a betting perspective is the total points betting market.
The over has saluted in five of the past eight games played by both these sides and it really would not surprise if this clash turned into a genuine shootout.
Back Over 45 Points
The Minnesota Vikings have fallen into a massive hole after their strong start to the season and this is almost a must-win clash.
The market can’t separate these two teams and they are both tricky teams to analyse as the gap between their best and worst form is massive.
Minnesota have won five of their past nine games in front of their home fans and are 6-3 against the line in this scenario, while Arizona have won four of their past seven games away from home.
The Vikings are a better team than their recent form suggests and they are more than capable of returning to winning form.
Back Minnesota To Win @ $1.91
The Miami Dolphins have got themselves into playoffs contention with four straight victories and they will start this clash with the Los Angeles Rams as favourites.
This will be the first time in over 12 months that the Dolphins have started an away game as favourites, but they have won just one of their past six games on the road for a clear loss.
The Rams returned to winning form with a dour victory over the New York Jets and they will finally give an opportunity to number one draft pick Jared Goff.
Los Angeles have won two of their past six games as home underdogs for a loss, while they are 2-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
I am still not willing to trust the Miami Dolphins from a betting perspective and the Rams are simply a bad team, so this is another clash that I am happy to stay out of.
No Bet
This is one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL this season and the New England Patriots will start as dominant favourites.
New England suffered a rare loss at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks last weekend and their record as away favourites is not particularly strong – they have won just four of their past eight games in this scenario and have the same record against the line.
The San Francisco 49ers have not won a game since the opening week of the season, but they were only narrowly denied by the Arizona Cardinals last weekend.
The 49ers have won just two of their past seven games as home underdogs and their record against the line is an average 3-4.
Total points does stand out in this clash as the line has been set at a very high 51 points.
New England are a high-scoring team, but the under has saluted in six of their past nine games away from home, while backing the under in San Francisco games has also been profitable.
Back Under 51 Points
The Seattle Seahawks have won two games on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Philadelphia Eagles as clear favourites.
Seattle have won seven of their past eight games as favourites for a clear profit and they are 4-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
Philadelphia returned to winning form against the Atlanta Falcons and they have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear profit, but they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
Seattle should be able to get the job done, but there is no value at their current price and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.
The Washington Redskins have won five of their past seven games and they will go into this clash with the Green Bay Packers as clear favourites.
Washington have won only two of their past five games as home favourites for a clear loss and they have the same record against the line.
The Green Bay Packers have lost three games on the trot thanks to some very poor defensive efforts and their season hit a new low with their loss to the Tennessee Titans.
Green Bay have won just one of their past four games as away underdogs for a loss, but they are 3-1 against the line in this situation.
The Packers are a better team than their recent form suggests and they are a good bet to cover the line in what I expect to be a very tight affair.
Back Green Bay To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)
This is set to be an outstanding Monday Night Football clash between two of the best teams in the AFC.
Oakland have won six of their past seven games and they are well on track for their best season in some time.
They will start this game as favourites and they have struggled somewhat in this situation – they have failed to beat the line in their past three games as home favourites.
Houston have won two games on the trot to take control of the AFC South and their defence has been able to overcome the loss of JJ Watt.
The Texans have won just two of their past six games as away underdogs for a clear loss, while they have an identical record against the line.
There is not as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and Houston are definite value at their current price of $3.
Back Houston To Win @ $3