The regular season has just 48 games remaining over the next three weeks as the temperatures drop and the pressure rises in the NFL.
Sunday morning action is also part of the schedule for the first time this season with the four teams involved in the Christmas Day games featuring in those two contests before opponent swapping four days later.
Week 16 on the schedule brings us several big clinching scenarios across both conferences starting with Kansas City who can lock up the AFC’s top seed (yet again) with a win and Buffalo losing their game with New England.
Pittsburgh can secure the AFC North division title in their game with Baltimore while a Ravens win at home would keep that race alive and lock up their spot in the playoffs.
Over in the NFC, Philadelphia and Green Bay both have win and clinch scenarios with a division title and playoff spot going on the line for both sides.
There’s so much action on the cards over the next few days so let’s get into it with our Week 16 preview and best bets below.
Denver has a fairly simple scenario heading into this game, if they win, they will be going to the playoffs, if they lose they will have to hope Miami and Cincinnati lose or wait a week.
Which makes their situation notable but maybe not urgent with a fairly wide margin for error, even if the loss might harm them in terms of seeding having already lost once to LA this season.
As for the Chargers they cannot clinch anything in this game but a win plus losses from the Dolphins and Colts will put them into the postseason.
Playing at home has been a huge advantage on Thursdays over the last month with the home side going 9-1 since Week 8 which plays into the hands of the Chargers here.
Their offence has struggled in the last couple of weeks though with Justin Herbert getting banged up and scoring just 17 points in each of their last three games.
Denver’s defence can also cause problems, forcing five Colts turnovers last week to swing the game in their favour and move their winning streak to four.
However the short rest and travel might limit their impact, as will Herbert’s ability to avoid the critical turnover.
We should see the ball moved a bit through the air so take the Chargers to win a back and forth game with some decent production from Ladd McConkey and Courtland Sutton.
SGM: Chargers to Win, Over 41 Points, Ladd McConkey & Cortland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards @ $9.66
Is Patrick Mahomes healthy?
The line for this game will move based on his status as he recovers from an ankle sprain suffered last week and there is a line of thought that they may rest him given the short turnaround to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day.
But this is the NFL’s poster boy on the best team, he doesn’t miss games for injuries anymore and as we saw two years ago, he will play through an ankle sprain.
Especially because they can lock up the top seed and let him rest up for the postseason.
Kansas City just does not lose games like this, their defence should keep Houston’s sputtering offence in check and the Chiefs ground game can take the pressure off Mahomes.
SGM: Chiefs to Win, Isiah Pacheco and Joe Mixon 50+ Rush Yards @ $4.18
By this time on the Sunday before Christmas, plenty of people will be thinking about rushing out to the shops, getting into an argument in the car park and trying frantically to finish the shopping.
However an alternative scenario exists where you can watch these teams slug it out and keep the festive violence exclusively on the screen, because there will be plenty in this game.
Pittsburgh won the first meeting in Week 11 by a score of 18-16, but they might need to score a touchdown or two in this one.
Baltimore flexed their muscle last week against the Giants winning 35-14 in a game that really wasn’t that close.
Meanwhile the Steelers had a tough loss in Philadelphia where their offence just could not get going.
With star defender TJ Watt battling an ankle injury, that might limit the Steelers pass rush just enough to let Lamar Jackson go and give the edge to the Ravens.
SGM: Baltimore to Win, Lamar Jackson 225+ Pass Yards, Derrick Henry 80+ Rush Yards @ $4.49
Out of the three 6-8 AFC teams, Cincinnati might have the best chance of winning out and at least keeping the Wild Card race alive.
Granted it is unlikely but with the way Joe Burrow is playing, it’s not entirely out of the question.
Helping that case is the fact Cleveland has pretty much given up on the season, clearly growing tired of Jameis Winston’s repeated turnovers they have benched him for Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
That is not really a notable upgrade given Robinson has one touchdown and seven interceptions in 12 career games including three already this season.
Just comes down to how much you want to take Cincinnati by in the alternate line market, two touchdowns seems like a good starting point.
Cincinnati to Cover -13.5 @ $2.80
Was last week a course correction or the bubble bursting in Carolina?
After showing some signs of life in losses to Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, they were demolished by Dallas.
At 3-11 maybe it would be better for them to lose out but if they play well, they might be able to knock off Arizona.
Last week’s Cardinals win might have kept their playoff push alive, but it really shouldn’t be read into given it was against New England and if they played well, they would have won by 50.
But they have the recipe for success in this game, given they have a lot more to play for and the way to take advantage of Carolina’s horrendous run defence.
The Panthers gave up over 150 rush yards in 10 games so far and over 200 in five of those games, including their last three.
Big win for Arizona on the back of a big day from James Conner.
SGM: Arizona to Win, James Conner 80+ Rush Yards & Anytime Touchdown @ $3.93
Will Detroit lose twice in a row, especially against this 4-10 Bears team?
Almost certainly not, this is a massive mismatch and the fact this is their second true outdoor game of the season is perhaps the only reason the line is under a touchdown.
Chicago gave them a decent scare on Thanksgiving but that new coach bounce has not hit Halas Hall, with two uninspired performances since then.
Despite losing one half of their dynamic backfield, the Lions should still be able to roll with Jahmyr Gibbs leading the charge and Jared Goff having another big day with his arm.
SGM: Detroit to Cover -6.5, Jared Goff 250+ Pass Yards & Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown @ $3.17
LA controls their playoff fate right now and having won their last three, they should be able to make it four as they match up very well with the struggling Jets.
Even with the home side coming off a win against the depleted Jaguars last week, it’s tough to see them putting it together twice in a row.
That Rams pass rush will be able to get after Aaron Rodgers and we know he does not like getting hit at his advanced age.
Meanwhile, their offence had an off night in San Francisco last time out, but that did come on short rest after a draining game against the Bills, so the long break before this one should have them back at full capacity.
LA Rams to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
It’s all-out desperation from the Atlanta Falcons as they make a quarterback switch to try and salvage their playoff push.
That change sees rookie Michael Penix set to start for the first time, replacing veteran Kirk Cousins whose play was flat out awful over the last month.
Working in their favour is that Penix just has to be average this week, because the Giants have been worse than awful pretty much all season.
They cannot score at all and once the Falcons get a touchdown it will be game over, which makes the under the value play here, just in case Penix is no good either.
Under 42 Points @ $1.90
They just keep winning, Philadelphia is on the verge of clinching the NFC’s top seed if Detroit is to stumble over the last few weeks.
Washington is probably their lone tough game remaining on the schedule and if they can get through this one, they should finish 15-2.
Outside of a blowout win over Tennessee, the Commanders have not been great in the last few weeks, getting pushed to the wire by a bad Saints team last week.
Which sets the Eagles up very well and they should rely on their big name stars to get them home.
SGM: Philadelphia to Cover -3.5, Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown, Saquon Barkley 100+ Rush Yards & Anytime Touchdown @ $6.43
Tennessee is another team that has run out of patience with their turnover prone starting quarterback, benching Will Levis, who threw three interceptions against the Bengals last week.
Mason Rudolph is not an upgrade in any way, but they could take advantage of the Colts here.
Indy’s playoff hopes were all but shattered in Denver last week and now they have to hope for a miracle.
There is not a lot to like in this market, but the Titans once strong defence has crumbled under the weight of carrying this team, so there might be some value on a Colts touchdown scorer.
Anthony Richardson Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.20
There are more than a few similarities between these teams as they prepare to face off.
Both have the same record as their division leader, but trail them on the head to head tiebreaker so they need to win out and set up an all or nothing game in Week 18.
But the one big difference is the Vikings have played a lot better than the Seahawks this season, which is why the former is 12-2 and the latter is 8-6.
Minnesota’s defence had a fun time against Chicago last week and there is a lot to like about their matchup this week.
On the other side of the ball Sam Darnold looks like he has shaken off whatever was causing his slump and Aaron Jones has to like what he saw Josh Jacobs do to this Seattle defence last week.
SGM: Minnesota to Win and Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown @ $2.70
This game does not have any implications on the playoff race but it could have a big impact on the 2025 NFL Draft.
As it stands Vegas holds the first overall pick thanks to their 2-12 record, with an eye on Shedur Sanders as the prize for being so bad in 2024.
Jacksonville holds the fourth pick at the moment and they could add an impact player to their roster, but a win could drop them a long way down the list.
We have two bad teams, neither of which can really score so let’s just take the under and focus on anything else.
Under 39.5 Points @ $1.90
Neither of these teams would fall into the category of “actively bad” but they have been incredibly underwhelming in 2024.
San Francisco has the excuse of a roster decimated with injuries and the guys that have been able to stay on the field have thoroughly underwhelmed.
Miami just has not lived up to its potential, but one surprise contributor has been tight end Jonnu Smith who has been able to take advantage of favourable matchups.
His price to score a touchdown looks well over the odds and the best value play in this market.
Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3.05
For some reason this game got flexed into a feature window which is an odd decision considering it will be over by the end of the first quarter.
Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in their last eight, all wins, while New England has not scored 30 points since Week 6 of the 2022 season, a run of 42 regular season games.
In January 2022, New England went to Buffalo for a Wild Card game and the Bills demolished Bill Belichick’s defence, scoring on every possession bar an end of game kneel down.
They are better than that night and New England is worse, this could be the biggest win of the season in the league.
Buffalo to Cover -20.5 @ $2.75
Dallas still has a path to the playoffs but there is a far more realistic chance of Deshaun Watson winning the NFL’s Walter Payton Man of the Year award.
Tampa Bay meanwhile is coming off their best win of the season, demolishing another playoff contender out in LA and they control the NFC South.
This is their last road trip and they will be eyeing off a big day against this Dallas defence.
If they can contain Micah Parsons they will win this one easily.
Tampa Bay to Cover -4 @ $1.90
Perhaps this could have been a great game when it was scheduled but now it is going to be a one sided massacre.
It’s just a case of how ruthless the Packers want to be, and given they need a win to keep pushing for the postseason, it could get out of hand.
Even if Derek Carr does come back, he doesn’t really have a lot to work with.
SGM: Green Bay to Cover -14 & Josh Jacobs 2+ Touchdowns @ $4.27
2023
The NFL has brought the gifts this festive season with a massive Week 16 spread out over the long weekend as playoff hopes go on the line.
There might be some multitasking Monday morning when the presents are getting unwrapped as Minnesota and Detroit headline the early window before a massive game between Miami and Dallas.
On Boxing Day the gifts keep with a potential Super Bowl preview as San Francisco takes on Baltimore, a decade after they faced off in a controversial game in New Orleans.
We’ve got a lot to cover this weekend so read on for our NFL best bets and previews below!
We’ve got a pair of very desperate 7-7 teams with both very much in the playoff hunt.
LA has won four of five since their bye and exemplifies the importance of having your key players healthy(ish) at this time of year.
In their closer than it should have been win over Washington on Monday morning, Kyren Williams ran for 152 yards while the receiving duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for 161 yards and a critical touchdown.
New Orleans is relying on its defence as injuries decimated the team, but I really do wonder if they are capable of slowing down this Rams team.
Despite allowing just 12 points total in their last two games, LA is a much tougher opponent to deal with compared to the Panthers and Giants.
They have been very vulnerable on the ground and it should set up a big day for the Rams big three as they move to 8-7.
SGM: LA Rams to Win, Kyren Williams 100+ Rush Yards, Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua 150+ Receiving Yards @ $7.15
In ten years we are going to look back on the 2023 seasons for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and wonder how on earth either of them were even close to playoff contention.
Pittsburgh might drop out of the race with a loss here though because they have really struggled, dropping three in a row and four of their last five.
Not to mention the apparent disinterest and frustration that has crept into the receiver room.
To try and arrest the offensive slide, they are turning to Mason Rudolph at quarterback who is really not much of an upgrade over Mitch Trubisky.
Cincinnati has ridden their luck since Joe Burrow was lost for the season, picking up overtime wins over Jacksonville and Minnesota either side of a 20 point win over Indianapolis.
Losing Ja’Marr Chase does damage the productivity of their passing game but Tee Higgins came through in a big way and he is going to be desperate to prove he is a number one receiver with free agency on the horizon.
Joe Mixon is also likely going to get his yardage against a Steelers defence that has struggled against the run this season and just gave up 170 on the ground to the Colts.
SGM: Cincinnati to Win, Joe Mixon 50+ Rushing Yards & Tee Higgins 60+ Receiving Yards @ $6.27
There really is no way to sugar coat it, the Chargers are a complete mess and firing Brandon Staley probably isn’t going to do a whole lot for their chances over the next three weeks.
If getting blown out by the bang average at best Raiders wasn’t enough, now they face a Buffalo team that has finally come to life in the last couple of weeks.
With their season very much on the line, they answered the call first winning in Kansas City and blowing out Dallas to put themselves on the precipice of the playoff picture.
They have to keep winning if they want to try and steal the division off Miami and I’m fully expecting them to keep rolling against an injury depleted side that has given up on 2023.
SGM: Buffalo by 14+, James Cook 70+ Rush Yards & Anytime TD Scorer @ $4.65
We’ve been waiting for it to happen for over a month and Detroit finally delivered a signature performance in Week 15 belting the Denver Broncos on the back of five Jared Goff touchdown passes.
Now they have a chance to lock up the NFC North with a win and book a home playoff game for the first time in 30 years.
As competitive as Minnesota has been despite all sorts of injuries this season, last week just felt like a breaking point, losing in overtime in Cincinnati.
Another blowout here seems unlikely and the Vikings will find a way to put up some points but with a division title on the line, Detroit just seems locked in to get the job done.
Detroit to Win and Over 47.5 Points @ $2.90
Speaking of teams reaching breaking points, the overachieving Texans look like they have ran their race.
At the time of writing, star rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is likely out for the second straight week after suffering a concussion in New Jersey two weeks ago which is the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Sure they were able to rally around Case Keenum and beat Tennessee last week but if they play at that level here, the Browns defence will have a field day.
Cleveland is enjoying a rare season of good fortune to still be at 9-5 and in position to make the playoffs despite being on their fourth quarterback of the year.
I’m not expecting any offensive records to be set here, especially if Stroud is out as the Browns defence stifles the makeshift Texans offence and grinds out a win.
Cleveland to Cover -2.5 @ $1.87
It was coming, the Panthers managed to stumble to a win in front of a friends and family crowd in a driving rainstorm last week.
That was not enough to ruin their first overall pick and the Bears hopes of picking up Caleb Williams but with nothing to lose, they can push for that third victory.
However I’m not going to back them to win this game or either of the next two unless something major changes.
Green Bay is having all sorts of issues and always seems to find themselves in competitive games so this might be closer than it should be on paper, but the Packers should win this one.
Green Bay to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.15
It boggles the mind that Atlanta is a home favourite against pretty much anyone after that effort last week.
Not only are the finding unique and creative ways to shoot themselves in the foot, Arthur Smith might be allergic to getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers.
Indianapolis on the other hand dominated the Steelers last week and they have a very easy run home which could lead to a very unlikely division title.
The Colts really should be favoured here and by kickoff they might be, so this is the time to jump on them at a price.
Indianapolis to Win @ $1.94
It’s season over for Tennessee with last week’s loss in Houston officially eliminating the Titans from playoff contention.
Mike Vrabel will do his utmost to finish the season strong, but on a holiday weekend, they might just realise it is a redundant mission to go all out here.
Meanwhile Seattle is coming off a massive win at home over Philadelphia to end a rough losing streak and put them back to 7-7.
This game means a whole lot more for the Seahawks and with Geno Smith back in action, I’m expecting an offensive explosion as the visitors get back over .500.
Seattle to Win and Over 41.5 Points @ $3.00
It’s over, the Jets have been eliminated from the playoff hunt and unsurprisingly that ended the talk of Aaron Rodgers trying a miraculous and/or stupid comeback.
Now we get this battle of two bad teams who are competing for draft position.
On the plus side Washington is capable of scoring and giving up plenty of points, so we might get to see a few touchdowns.
The Jets just got shutout by Miami which is not a surprise given their offensive ineptitude post bye but this might be a making something out of nothing game.
Take the over and hope it’s a better watch than it is shaping up to be.
Over 37 Points @ $1.90
If Trevor Lawrence is out, the Jaguars are going to be in a lot of trouble here.
With the Jaguars quarterback in concussion protocol (which might also explain some of his decisions against Baltimore), their chances of doing something against a feisty Bucs team take a nosedive.
That is clearly evidenced by the head to head odds being level at $1.90 apiece.
Tampa is coming off a huge win in Green Bay last week with Baker Mayfield having a field day and they have to keep winning to maintain control of the NFC South.
Keep this one nice and straightforward.
Tampa Bay to Win @ $1.90
If this game was a Christmas present, it would be the random novelty from the $2 shop you bought for the uncle that decided at 4:50pm on Christmas Eve he was coming to lunch and you just needed something under the tree with his name on it.
Chicago cannot seem to get out of their own way, finding unbelievably creative ways to lose but even that might not be enough to ruin their day against Arizona.
The Cards actually gave the 49ers more of a game than many were expecting and still found a way to lose by 16 which is actually perfect for the 3-11 team hoping for the top draft pick.
This really could go either way but both teams are capable of scoring so let’s just land on the over and move on to something more interesting.
Over 43 Points @ $1.90
Miami had a great week against the Jets, winning 30-0 despite missing Tyreek Hill and now they return home where they have gone 6-1 on the season.
Dallas has not been great on the road with a miserly 3-4 record that is punctuated by last week’s absolute no-show in Buffalo.
That ended all sorts of offensive productivity streaks but the one thing in the Cowboys’ favour here is they have not lost back to back games all season.
After losing to Arizona they belted New England 38-3, a loss in San Francisco was backed up with a close win over the Chargers, after Philadelphia beat them they blasted the Giants and now they have a tough test against the Dolphins.
This is one of those gut picks because Miami is a really good team, but we’re going to learn a lot about the resiliency of this Dallas side because if they can come out swinging they should win this game and I like the value on offer.
Dallas to Win @ $2.05
Thankfully most American viewers will be either dozing off or busy setting up for their Christmas Day festivities because this is going to be a bit of a dud.
New England is well and truly checked out on the season, while Denver is going to be incredibly motivated to rebound from their loss in Detroit.
The Pats have gone a horrible 3-11 straight up and have the same record against the spread, this is an awful team and the offseason cannot come enough in Foxborough.
Let’s just stick with the tried and true formula of 2023, backing against New England since it has been a profitable one.
Denver to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
It feels very odd to say that a team coming off a 63 point performance really didn’t prove much but the Raiders just had to not screw up last week.
I’m still treating them like a bad team but that might change if they can cause some problems for the Chiefs here.
At some point Kansas City is going to come to life, but their offensive mistakes really do make you wonder when it will happen.
That being said, they did have their second best day of the season against the Raiders in late November, putting up 31 points in a two touchdown win in Vegas.
Andy Reid always seems to be able to find a way to move the ball on this defence and even in their win, the Raiders did give up some plays to the undermanned Chargers, so let’s back the Chiefs and the over which is surprisingly low for this matchup.
Kansas City to Win and Over 41.5 Points @ $2.10
Let’s not call it a comeback, but the Eagles are set up for a get-right game against their NFC North foes.
They have not looked good during their three game losing streak but they have gone through the hard part of their schedule and can use their remaining three games to get ready for the playoffs.
In the Divisional Round last season they flew out of the blocks and blasted the Giants 38-7 and I’m expecting something similar here.
Jalen Hurts should be over his flu that definitely impacted his game against the Seahawks and I’ll take him and AJ Brown to score in a big Eagles victory.
SGM: Philadelphia by 14+, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorers @ $5.93
Some games you have to try and hype up but this one does not need to have any extra drama attached to it.
The top seeds in each conference face off and if they can hold on to those spots, would make this the most likely Super Bowl preview.
Baltimore is on a roll, winning seven of their last eight and they have scored 30 points six of those games.
On the surface that should be enough for the Ravens to warrant favouritism in this one until you see the run the 49ers are on since their bye.
There might not be a better team in the NFL right now than San Francisco, winning six straight, scoring at least 27 in every game and having an average winning margin of 18.83 in that span.
It is no coincidence that coincides with their three best offensive players getting healthy in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and tackle Trent Williams.
I’ll back the MVP contender and Samuel to score in a comfortable 49ers win, they are just too good to back against right now.
SGM: San Francisco to Cover -5.5, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorers @ $4.04
2022
It’s a Christmas Day feast for Aussie NFL fans with a massive 11 games on the cards from early morning through to the afternoon.
With three weeks remaining in the season, four AFC teams and two NFC teams face clinching scenarios in Week 16.
Buffalo and Philadelphia can both secure their respective divisions and the Eagles can also lock up home field advantage with a win, while the Bengals can book their postseason berth with a win in New England.
It is a bit more complicated for Baltimore, the LA Chargers and the New York Giants who all need to win and get help from other results to secure their postseason berth.
We’re feeling festive this week so read on and see if we can find some Christmas gifts in the form of our NFL previews and best bets.
When this was revealed as the Week 16 Thursday Night Football game, most punters would have thought it was the perfect time to get some last minute Christmas shopping done.
However thanks to the Jaguars rallying and the Jets still being in the playoff hunt, this game means a lot for both teams.
Jacksonville is a very strong chance to win out and steal the AFC South off Tennessee while New York is one game out of an AFC Wild Card spot.
But with the Jags coming off a dramatic overtime win against Dallas as well as having won four of their last six, it’s tough to back against them here.
Especially with the fact the Jets have dropped 3 straight and look like they are trending in the wrong direction.
Back Jacksonville to Win @ $2.02
Buffalo’s quest for home field advantage in the AFC is not quite complete yet but they can take one big step towards locking it up with a win over Chicago here.
It’s going to be played in trying conditions according to the local weather reports with temperatures well below freezing and winter storm warnings in effect.
That might act as a bit of an equaliser between two teams whose rosters are, to be polite, slightly mismatched.
Add in the fact Buffalo seems to be in a mood to let teams hang around at the moment and this does not have the ingredients for a blowout.
Back Buffalo to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.15
At 5-9 Atlanta should be out of playoff contention and thinking about ways to improve the team in the offseason, but they are only one game out of first place in the division and still very much alive.
Not that they are going to be good enough to do a whole lot of anything come January, however the limitations of Baltimore without Lamar Jackson gives them an outside chance here.
Not that either team warrants a lot of consideration in the head to head or line market after a number of atrocious offensive days.
Even with one of the lowest totals of the season, the under still looks like the way to go because both teams reaching 10 points would be a Christmas miracle.
Back Under 35.5 Points @ $1.90
It feels somewhat hyperbolic to say that the Patriots are a broken team but after that horror show ending in Las Vegas last week, there’s really no other conclusion to reach.
With the players chirping the coaches on the sidelines, Bill Belichick’s refusal to endorse Mac Jones as the long term starter and an offence that cannot do the basics right, this is not a team punters should feel good backing.
Especially when you realise they are taking on arguably the in form team in the AFC right now with the surging Cincinnati Bengals.
Their come from behind victory over the Buccaneers last week was their sixth straight win and Joe Burrow could be in for a field day against an overmatched Patriots team.
Perhaps Belichick will find a way scheme up his defence and avoid a 30 point blowout, but the Bengals should not only win, but win comfortably.
Back Cincinnati to Cover -3 @ $1.87
The impossible dream is suddenly very possible with the Detroit Lions dreaming of what would be one of the more miraculous playoff berths in NFL history.
Written off by most at 1-6, the Lions have been one of the in form teams since the calendar switched over to November and now sit at 7-7 with three very winnable contests to come.
Carolina is in the midst of its own playoff push but thanks to the horrendous NFC South, a loss would not be fatal for their chances here.
It also seems like they are unable to build on any sort of positive momentum they generate and that loss to Pittsburgh last week while giving up over 150 yards on the ground will not help their cause here.
The Lions will happily rely on their stable of running backs to get them home, although in true Detroit fashion nobody should be expecting them to do it the easy way.
Back Detroit to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.50
Everything about this game screams “stay away at all costs” with a very ugly affair set to unfold in Nashville.
On paper the Titans should run away with this game however with Ryan Tannehill out injured and rookie Malik Willis thrust back into the fold, Tennessee’s offence will be too one dimensional to run away from anyone.
Add in the fact they have lost four straight and this has the makings of a team that is ready to pack it in.
Most punters should also never back the Texans in any context however their last two games have seen them show a bit of fight by taking Dallas and Kansas City right to the wire.
While a win would not be beneficial for their draft status, the Texans do deserve a bit of credit for how they are finishing out the season.
Considering we are in the chaotic time of year, why not back a result that would bring about a bit more disorder with the Texans doing what they couldn’t do in the last two weeks and hold on for a win.
Back Houston to Win @ $2.40
Cleveland is going on a little bit of a run in the last few weeks, knocking off Tampa Bay, Houston and Baltimore over the last four weeks to move to 6-8 and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
Winning out is still seemingly unlikely with an offence very much in progress with the return of Deshaun Watson from suspension but all they have to do is avoid shooting themselves in the foot and they should be able to take care of New Orleans.
The Saints have maybe one quality win all season and their team just doesn’t look like it has enough good players to really threaten most teams.
We’ll dive into the alternate line markets here and buy a couple of extra points for the Browns to win this one by a touchdown or more.
Back Cleveland to Cover -6 @ $2.60
While seemingly unlikely, newly crowned NFC North champions Minnesota will be holding onto the faint hope of stealing homefield advantage from the Philadelphia Eagles with the news of Jalen Hurts’ injury.
To do that they have to win out and finish at 14-3 while hoping the Eagles lose their remaining games.
It won’t come easy this week though with a Giants team that salvaged their season with a big against Washington last week that came courtesy of a couple of very lucky breaks.
The Giants have the fight to keep themselves in a game like this but their offence is seemingly capped at 24 points most of the time and Minnesota just has too many weapons to slow down.
It won’t be all smooth sailing for the Vikings but they should get the win they need.
Back Minnesota to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.40
Kansas City is still finding ways to win but they are not making it easy on themselves in recent weeks.
In the last two weeks they have defeated the Broncos and Texans by six points each in games they should have probably won by 20 if they were executing anywhere close to their potential.
That’s why this double digit line (at publish) is a clear stay away for now, but there is the option to get a bit creative with a Same Game Multi.
Naturally you still would back the Chiefs to win, even if they make you very nervous in the fourth quarter and the alternate total of 44 should be achievable given how recent games have gone for both teams.
Then you have the player who might be the most underrated skill position guy in the league, running back Jerick McKinnon who has stepped up in recent weeks to offset some of the boneheaded mistakes Patrick Mahomes has made.
Over his last three games he has five total touchdowns and should have no trouble finding the end zone here.
SGM: Kansas City to Win, Over 44 Points, Jerick McKinnon Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $4.13
With the NFC West all locked up, the 49ers can now turn their attention towards getting their team ready for a playoff run.
Thanks to their suffocating defence their undermanned offence has plenty of time to adjust to its many, many absences.
Washington won’t be putting up too many points as the Taylor Heinicke experiment looks to be reaching a plateau.
San Francisco should be able to win by keeping Washington in the single digits and we’ll back them in a low scoring SGM here.
SGM: San Francisco to Win and Under 41 Points @ $2.19
What would have normally been a blockbuster encounter has lost pretty much all of its lustre with the news Jalen Hurts will miss this game through injury.
When these teams met back in October, Dallas had Cooper Rush at quarterback and his limitations were exposed for all to see.
Now Philadelphia will unleash its backup Gardner Minshew who can make as many plays for his team as he can for the opponents.
It is not a good trait to have taking on an opportunistic Dallas defence that will be looking to tee off on the former Jaguars signal caller.
Back Dallas to Cover -5 @ $1.90
Even the Raiders have no idea how they won that game last weekend, but they did and their season lived to fight for another week.
They will ideally not be relying on another brain snap from the opposing team as they head to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers.
Pittsburgh will get Kenny Pickett back from the concussion protocol and the rookie will be given his toughest test yet against a defence that can get plenty of pressure but can also be caught out on the back end.
The total looks way too low considering both teams should be able to get into the 20’s given the respective matchups and the over will be the play here.
Back Over 38.5 Points @ $1.90
Some might be starting to think that the Pack are back but let’s not get too excited over a 12 point win against that shell of a Rams team.
After losing a hard fought game against the Bills last week, Miami will be happy to return home and they should be able to take care of Green Bay here.
Putting up 29 points, even in defeat was a huge boost for their offence and they should be able to find ways to move the ball this week.
Green Bay on the other hand still just looks disjointed and it’s tough to see them doing too much if Miami doesn’t commit turnovers to allow the Packers to stay in the game.
Take the Dolphins to snap their three game losing streak in some style here.
Back Miami to Cover -4 @ $1.90
Spare a thought for the families in America who will have to spend the afternoon on Christmas Day watching this horrendous matchup.
When it was scheduled back in May, you could at least understand the theory behind the decision with the reigning Super Bowl champions taking on Russell Wilson and his new teammates.
However the Rams are in the midst of the worst Super Bowl title defence since the turn of the millennium and Denver is just an out and out bad team.
The main reason both teams have struggled so much is because their respective offences have struggled greatly, which makes taking the under, even on this very low number the play for the game.
11 of Denver’s 14 games have gone under while nine of the Rams have also finished below their total.
Back Under 36.5 Points @ $1.90
Take your pick on which highly dysfunctional team you want to back here, a depleted Arizona that just cannot seem to get out of their own way, or a Tampa team that was held together a year too long.
Tom Brady returns to the site of two of the more iconic matches of his career and he will be hoping this match is more along the lines of Super Bowl 49 than Super Bowl 42.
It’s tough to have too much faith in this Bucs team however, the Cardinals are an even worse side and Tampa should find a way to accidentally stumble into a victory here.
After all, they are still technically in control of their playoff fate and could desperately use a win to keep ahead in the NFC South.
Back Tampa Bay to Win by 1-13 Points @ $2.30
The weekend closes out with the Colts trying to make everyone forget their historic collapse against the Vikings last week.
Not that a win over the Chargers will erase that from anyone’s memory and that is the sort of defeat that will linger for quite a while, even in a Week 15 regular season game.
Depending on how other results go, the Chargers could end the weekend in the AFC’s fifth seed and they’ll be eager to try and win out to give themselves the best position for Wild Card weekend as possible.
With Justin Herbert and the rest of the team returning to full health, they are suddenly one of the more dangerous teams in the AFC and they should comfortable account for the Colts here.
Back the LA Chargers to Cover -4.5 @ $1.90
2021
Just 48 games remain in the 2021 NFL Regular Season and 27 teams are still mathematically alive in the race for Super Bowl LVI.
Everything kicks off with a big cross-conference game between the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers in Nashville.
Christmas weekend then brings us more Sunday action with Green Bay hosting Cleveland and Arizona taking on Indianapolis as a Boxing Day treat for NFL Fans in Australia.
It will lead into a huge Monday morning where every game bar one will have some form of playoff implications.
The divisional battles between New England and Buffalo as well as Cincinnati and Baltimore in the early window are arguably the games of the weekend.
In the late window all eyes are on Kansas City taking on Pittsburgh with both sides unable to accept a loss.
We’re previewing all 16 games below so read on and see who we are backing.
A couple of months ago, it was unfathomable to think that the 49ers were going to be a -3.5 point favourite over the red hot Tennessee Titans.
Heading into Week 16 the 49ers are the NFC’s sixth seed and well placed to be playing into mid-January having won six of their last seven.
Injuries have curtailed the Titans run with Derrick Henry and several other key offensive weapons missing time, dropping them to 9-5 after being the AFC’s top seed for a brief period.
Based on the most recent injury report, it looks like it will be another long, and probably turnover filled day from Ryan Tannehill with the left side of his offensive line set to miss the game.
While he spends his night running away from Nick Bosa, Jimmy Garoppolo should be able to construct enough scoring drives to see his team home.
Back San Francisco to Cover -3 @ $1.87
With the NFC North locked up again, Green Bay will now turn its attention to securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cleveland will not have a whole lot of time to feel sorry for itself after it fell to 7-7 against Las Vegas.
With Covid and injuries continuing to hamper this team’s ability to field a competitive roster, they could be in for a miserable Christmas Day if Aaron Rodgers in in a ruthless mindset.
The Packers have scored at least 31 points in their last four games and could very well reach the total points number themselves so I’ll back them to cover for a nice value double.
Back Green Bay -7.5 and Over 45.5 Points @ $3.50
We’ve got two good teams that are trending in opposite directions in this game and the market is having a tough time splitting them.
Arizona has gone 3-4 and is coming off an embarrassing loss to Detroit and punters should be treating them with plenty of caution after that effort.
Meanwhile the Colts are running over opponents as they try to overtake the Titans for the AFC South lead.
Jonathan Taylor is the best offensive weapon in the league and the defence is buzzing, take them as slight road underdogs.
Back Indianapolis to Win @ $1.94
Three weeks after their wild and windy clash in Buffalo on Monday Night Football, New England and Buffalo will reunite at Gillette Stadium for the rematch that could decide the AFC East.
Based on the current weather forecast for Foxborough, the conditions should be a little bit more palatable for all involved this weekend.
The Patriots took that first game on the back of a punishing ground game that took over the game and allowed them to control the clock from start to finish.
While New England is likely to throw more than three passes in this game, it would be surprising for them to abandon their run first approach considering how vulnerable the Bills have been up front.
This might be the toughest game to pick of the weekend and in a situation like this, you have to back the coaching edge, which goes to Bill Belichick.
Back New England to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90
Cincinnati has taken the lead in the race for the AFC North and could take a huge step towards clinching the division by completing a season sweep over the Ravens.
They recorded a 41-17 win in Baltimore in Week 7 this is shaping up as the biggest game of the season with a tough run home ahead.
Baltimore continues to battle but injuries to many players, including Pro Bowl quarterback Lamar Jackson have contributed to a three game losing streak.
John Harbaugh has his team ready to battle each week and they will find a way to push the Bengals into the fourth quarter, but ultimately fall short.
Back Cincinnati to Win by 1-13 @ $2.40
At 2-11-1, the Lions have had one of the most frustrating seasons in the National Football League, finding themselves in the mix for the top overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
However to the credit of Dan Campbell, his side has been in many of those games despite a severe talent deficit.
They have an opportunity to play spoiler this weekend with Atlanta still clinging to hope of a late run to reach the postseason.
To make matters worse, they are going to have to go into this game without Jared Goff after he tested positive for Covid, coming after what may be his best performance of the season in the 18 point win over Arizona last week.
In backup Tim Boyle’s lone start this season the Lions stumbled to a 13-10 defeat in Cleveland and the Falcons should take advantage of the depleted Lions roster in this game.
Back Atlanta to Cover -5.5 @ $1.90
This is the only game this weekend that does not feature at least one team still in playoff contention, however it could be a big game in terms of determining the first overall pick in the draft.
When two bad teams face off with nothing to lose, we do tend to see these games turn into unintentional shootouts.
Take the over and hope it turns into a moderately competitive affair in the fourth quarter.
Back Over 41.5 Points @ $1.90
Missed opportunities will have haunted the LA Chargers for the last week after their overtime loss to Kansas City.
They can put that defeat behind them and refocus on their chase for a wild card spot when they face a Houston team that is already looking at end of season trips.
If the Chargers don’t win this one by two touchdowns, alarm bells should be ringing.
But I have faith in Justin Herbert against this Texans secondary.
Back the LA Chargers to Win by 14+ @ $2.40
The Rams have a chance at recording another statement win when they take on a Vikings side that has failed to impress in the last month.
Having rode a wave of Covid absences, LA came away with a workmanlike 20-10 win in their rescheduled Week 15 game against Seattle and will have a quick turnaround here.
Their defensive line will be in for a long day trying to contain Dalvin Cook but should be able to hold him in check while the matchup between Jalen Ramsey and Justin Jefferson will be must watch TV.
I like the Rams as a road favourite, Matthew Stafford is due for another big game and the Vikings might be the team to allow him to have one.
Back the LA Rams to Cover -3 @ $1.94
At this point of the season, any wins will do for the Eagles, even if they don’t come in overly pretty fashion.
Their playoff hopes took a huge blow in Week 12 when they lost to the Giants in New Jersey and they cannot afford another slip up here.
Coming into this game on short rest and potentially without their head coach, there’s a lot of warning signs surrounding the Eagles here so I might treat the head to head market as a stay away.
Considering both teams could struggle to reach 20 points, the under looks to be the way to go.
Back Under 40.5 Points @ $1.90
Tom Brady will face off against the quarterback who was his successor in New England as his Buccaneers try and rebound from their worst offensive showing in several years.
We will keep this play fairly simple because it is potentially the most straightforward decision of the week.
Cam Newton and the Panthers are thoroughly overmatched, even with Tampa going into this game shorthanded after their costly loss at home to New Orleans.
It is shaping up as one of those typical Brady specials and I’ll back him to rebound by guiding the Bucs to a convincing win.
Back Tampa Bay to Win by 14+ @ $2.25
Neither side has managed to light up the scoreboard with any regularity this season with Seattle limping to the finish line of the Russell Wilson era and Chicago breaking in rookie Justin Fields.
The Seahawks have been held under 20 points in four of their last six games and the Bears defence has been sneaky tough more often than not.
Both of these teams have been rather reliable unders bets with 11 of Seattle’s games failing to reach the total points number and nine of Chicago’s have done the same.
Take the under.
Back Under 42.5 Points @ $1.90
This is the perfect game to bury at the same time as Kansas City-Pittsburgh with two teams still technically in the playoff mix, but are not expected to finish on a high note.
Denver has had 11 unders this season and Vegas has failed to reach 20 points in six of their last seven games.
While the winner of this will be very much alive in the AFC Wild Card race, the loser will have their season ended and it could lead to a lot of “risk-averse” play.
Back Under 41.5 Points @ $1.90
Kansas City is the form team in the NFL now, riding a seven game winning streak and in position to secure home field advantage in the playoffs for the third time in four years over the next few weeks.
They will have to do it the hard way this weekend with Covid potentially robbing them of two difference makers on offence ahead of a matchup with this stingy Steelers defence.
One thing that the Chiefs have done really well this season is handling games that are a bit more defensive and finding ways to win by grinding it out rather than blowing out every opponent.
It does make the -7.5 point line a bit too high for comfort, especially if Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are unable to go.
Pittsburgh knows its way to win the game is to slow down the Chiefs and keep them to a low score.
In six of their seven wins, plus their one tie, they have kept opponents to 20 points or less.
While I like their chances of doing that again here, I just can’t trust them to get enough points on offence to spring an upset.
SGM: Kansas City to Win and Under Total Points
If this sounds like a familiar matchup, it should because this will be the second time these clubs have faced off in the space of 14 days.
Washington took a depleted roster to Philadelphia and went down 27-17 and they will hopefully get a few players back for this clash with Dallas.
Even if they can bring some of their regular starters back for this game, including one of their regular quarterbacks, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with Dallas whose offence is starting to get going on the ground.
Dallas will be very pleased to be returning home after a 3-0 road trip and could potentially be in position to clinch the division depending on other results earlier in the day.
Take them to finish the job here.
Back Dallas to Cover -10.5 @ $1.90
Fresh off a shutout win in Tampa Bay, New Orleans will need a similar level of performance from their defence when they take on Miami on Monday Night Football.
Lost in the midst of their offensive struggles this year is the fact this defence has been the big reason they are even a chance of making the postseason in their first post-Drew Brees campaign.
Miami has won six straight games and cannot afford to lose any of their final three but going to New Orleans on primetime might be asking a bit much of their offence.
If the Saints can keep the Dolphins under 10 points like they did with the Jets and Buccaneers, they will win this one comfortably.
SGM: New Orleans to Win and Under 38.5 Points @ $3.05
2020
Only two weeks remain between now and the playoffs as a handful of teams make one last push for postseason glory.
Week 16 kicks off nice and early on Saturday with a NFC Wild Card rematch between the Saints and the Vikings, followed by a trio games on Sunday headlined by the Raiders and Dolphins.
Monday’s slate holds plenty of importance when the Steelers battle the Colts nice and early, followed by a Sunday Night Football blockbuster between the Packers and the Titans from Lambeau.
The stakes are high, and so is the value, so be sure to read our entire 2020 NFL Week 16 Preview below.
There is certainly no love lost between these two teams following a pair of playoff classics over the last few years.
The Vikings have the wood over the Saints after pulling off the Minneapolis Miracle in the divisional round two years ago before causing further heartache last year with their walkoff win in the Superdome.
As far as Saturday’s game goes, it’s fair to say this is an important one for both sides.
The likelihood of the Saints somehow wrestling the first seed in the NFC away from the Packers appears slim, while the Vikings, now at 6-8, also have work to do if they wish to upstage the Cardinals and the Bears for a potential Wild Card spot.
The Saints showed plenty of fight last week in their loss to the Chiefs and it was very encouraging to see the defence hold Patrick Mahomes in check throughout various stages of the game.
Unfortunately, Drew Brees still looks far from 100%, making it difficult to get too excited about New Orleans’ chances this season.
The Vikings also left a lot to be desired last week in their loss to the Bears as the defence gave up just under 400 yards.
They likely won’t find this any easier with Michael Thomas set to return to the field, so there’s a good chance we see the Saints bounce-back with a big total.
Tip: Saints Over 29.5 Total Points @ $1.87
The Buccaneers have a serious opportunity to secure their Wild Card spot when they meet a Lions team that has won only one of its last five games.
Tampa Bay boosted its chances enormously last week with a comeback win over the Falcons, but they’ll be eager to avoid the same defensive mishaps that gifted Atlanta a 21-point lead to begin with.
Detroit has nothing left to play for at this point and it is difficult to see them winning this game with Matthew Stafford still far from 100%.
Defensively the Lions have allowed the most points in the league, which doesn’t exactly stack up against a Bucs team that ranks seventh in the same category offensively.
The Bucs tore apart the Lions when they met last season 38-17 and they are also 5-1 in their last six games on the road.
Like most of Bruce Arians’ offensive systems, the Bucs live by the sword and die by the sword, which should cause a number of problems for Detroit’s depleted secondary.
Tip: Back the Bucs to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
The NFC West again takes center stage this week with a pivotal clash between the Cardinals and Niners.
Desperate for a win, Arizona came up clutch last week with a seven-point victory over the Eagles – a result that has vaulted the Cardinals back into the third Wild Card seed.
San Francisco has officially been eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Cowboys last week, but it’s safe to say Kyle Shanahan’s side will relish the chance to spoil the party of their division rivals.
Unfortunately, the 49ers’ track record against Arizona makes it tricky to back any kind of upset.
The Niners have won just two of their last 10 games against Arizona, which includes a 24-20 loss to the Cardinals back in Week 2.
To make matters worse, the likes of Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert and George Kittle (among others) remain on the sidelines, making it very difficult to see the Niners matching this high-scoring Cardinals team on the scoreboard.
Tip: Back the Cardinals 1-13 @ $2.50
This should be a fascinating battle to close out the Sunday slate between two of the AFC’s most promising up and comers.
The Raiders have enjoyed an extra few days off to reflect on their agonizing overtime loss to the Chargers last week that has left them fighting for life outside the Wild Card bubble at 7-7.
Miami, meanwhile, has done just enough to hold on to the third Wild Card seed after beating the Patriots last week in a spirited second half display from the defence.
This game could put a final line through the Raiders’ postseason hopes and it is difficult to back them with any confidence after winning just one of their last five games.
Miami’s defence is on a completely different level in comparison to Vegas, and after losing to a rookie last week in Justin Herbert, it wouldn’t be surprising to watch Tua Tagovailoa follow suit.
Trends wise, the Dolphins have won eight of their last 10 against the Raiders and are also 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games.
This is a hugely important game for Miami with the Bills up next week and they should rise to the occasion.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.90
Even though the Jets won last week, they still managed to lose in a way as they now find themselves at a serious disadvantage in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.
Fortunately, New York can strengthen their chances this week with a loss to the runaway Browns.
Cleveland continues to fly under the radar at 10-4 and there is a very good chance we see the Browns finish the season out strongly on the way to their first playoff berth since 2002.
Offensively the Browns have been a treat to watch this season as Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry continue to put up numbers, while it’s also exciting to watch a healthy Nick Chubb back in action.
Cleveland demolished the Giants last week in their Sunday Night win, and when you consider the Jets’ defence is significantly weaker, they should have no trouble adding to their impressive 5-2 record on the road.
With a big game coming up next week against the Steelers, this looks to be a serious momentum builder for one of the most promising young teams in the league.
Tip: Back the Browns to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
The implications of this game can’t be overstated as the Steelers and the Colts meet in a potential playoff preview.
The Steelers have been found out over the last month losing back-to-back games to Washington and the Bills before their Monday Night Football disaster last week against the Bengals.
Indianapolis, on the other hand, looks to be one of the most dangerous teams in the league.
Philip Rivers continues to build a strong rapport with the likes of T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal, as we saw last week in the Colts’ seven-point win over the division rival Texans.
Defensively the Colts are also top notch.
Indianapolis sacked Deshaun Watson five times last week, which could pose plenty of problems for a one-dimensional Steelers offence that has failed to put up more than 20 points in each of its last three games.
Only two points separated these sides when they met last year, so the Colts with a +2.5 head start appeals.
Tip: Back the Colts to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points) @ $1.90
Tip: Back the Browns to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
It might not seem like it, but this is still a fairly important game for both sides on Monday.
The Ravens have steadied the ship a little with three straight wins over the Cowboys, Browns and Jaguars, but that still hasn’t been enough to help them into the Wild Card picture at 9-5.
Speaking of the Wild Card, the Giants are far from out of it.
New York finds itself with work to do at 5-9, but considering Washington leads the NFC East at 6-8, there’s still plenty left for the Giants to play for with two games remaining.
Joe Judge’s defence is capable of putting some pressure on the Ravens, but whether or not the Giants can match Baltimore on the scoreboard for a full four quarters is the real query.
Quarterback Daniel Jones remains questionable to play at time of publish with a hamstring injury and judging by Colt McCoy’s struggles last week against the Browns, the backup isn’t about to find things any easier against a blitz-friendly Ravens team.
These two sides don’t meet very often, which again, is a serious disadvantage to the Giants.
Baltimore is really starting to hit its stride now as Lamar Jackson (and others) continue to recover from COVID and they just so happen to have the easiest strength of schedule remaining.
With a chance to jump back in the playoff race, they should be winning this comfortably.
Tip: Back the Ravens 14+
The Texans and the Bengals have nothing left to play for at this point as they both attempt to end the season on a high note.
Currently sitting third in the draft order, it might be in Cincinnati’s best interests to lose this game as they look ahead to the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Texans, meanwhile, don’t have a selection in the draft until the third round, so there’s a good chance they’ll be shooting for their fifth win of the season after coming up short by a touchdown last week against the Colts.
It’s worth noting that these two sides both rank second and third in total sacks allowed this year, so don’t be surprised if things get a little messy.
Funnily enough, eight of the last 10 games between these two sides have gone Under the Total, so if a turnover-fest ensues, we could be in for a low-scoring game.
Tip: Under 45 Total Points
This is an intriguing game for a couple of different reasons.
The Jaguars won’t be in a hurry to win after their chances at Trevor Lawrence were boosted with the Jets’ loss last week, while the Bears are suddenly right back in the thick of the playoff race following a win over the Vikings.
Jacksonville didn’t show a whole lot last week in their loss to the Ravens as Gardner Minshew was sacked five times in the blowout loss.
The Bears defence, on the other hand, has reverted back to its old ways in recent weeks, so there’s a good chance we see Minshew under further fire in the pocket.
Offensively Chicago has also dialed it up a notch. David Montgomery was enormous last week against the Vikings and he should have no trouble adding to his numbers against a Jags team that has allowed the third-most rushing yards in the league.
You could argue it would be in the Bears best interest to lose this game and improve on their draft position, but since they are sitting just one game out of a Wild Card spot, they should be winning this one.
Tip: Back the Bears 1-13 @ $2.40
This is a massive game for Washington as they try and keep the distance between themselves and the rest of the division.
Washington’s four-game win streak came to an end last week with Alex Smith on the sidelines as Dwayne Haskins came up short to the Seahawks at home.
Fortunately, Ron Rivera’s team has a perfect opportunity to bounce-back against his former side, but it certainly won’t come easy against a frisky Panthers side looking to pick up where they left off against the Packers.
Carolina was unlucky not to pull off an upset over Green Bay, but they have to feel pretty good about the way they shutdown Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams in the second half.
Rivera has said Smith remains Washington’s starting quarterback, but there is still no news on his ongoing calf injury.
If the Panthers can bring the same pressure they did last week against the Packers they might keep this close, but their problems in the red zone offensively can’t be overlooked.
The Panthers have struggled mightily to score points without Christian McCaffrey and they won’t find this game any easier against a Washington team that has allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league.
Tip: Panthers Under the Points Total
The Chiefs can go a long way to clinching a first-round bye this week with a win over the struggling Falcons.
Kansas City had their hands full last week against Drew Brees and the Saints, but they still managed to hold on for a three-point win thanks to a couple of clutch drives from Patrick Mahomes.
Atlanta really deserved to pick up its tenth win of the season against the Bucs, but like we’ve seen all year, the defence failed to close out the game with a 21-point lead.
Playing in two separate conferences, these two sides don’t meet very often, but it’s still hard to back against the Chiefs extending their winning streak to 10 in a row.
Even when they look to be in trouble, Mahomes somehow digs the Chiefs out of a hole with some savvy play action passes to Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce.
Considering how poor Atlanta’s defence has been all season, and the fact they now have to travel to a frozen Arrowhead, this should be another win on the board for the Chiefs.
Tip: Back the Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.30
The Chargers and the Broncos have both been eliminated from playoff contention, but this should still be a fun game, nonetheless.
Los Angeles has enjoyed a few extra days off following their overtime win against the Raiders last week and they’ll certainly be hungry for revenge against this Broncos team.
Denver defeated the Chargers in a 31-30 thriller when they met last month, a game Justin Herbert would like to forget after throwing two interceptions.
Drew Lock, on the other hand, was outstanding throwing for just under 250 yards and three touchdowns and there is a good chance we see him replicate those numbers with the rest of the offence returning to full strength.
It’s no real secret that the Chargers can’t stop the run, so if Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay both suit up for Denver, it could turn out to be another shootout.
The Broncos have also covered the line in four of their last five games against LA, so the +3 about Denver does appear enormous value.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.90
Four of the final five games on the Week 15 slate involve division rivalries and this one appears to be the most important.
The Seahawks suddenly find themselves back atop the NFC West at 10-4 following last week’s win over Washington that also helped them secure a playoff spot.
A win on Monday against the 9-5 Rams would be enough to hand Seattle its first division crown since 2016, but if you’ve been paying attention this year, you’ll know this game is far from a guarantee.
Los Angeles was embarrassed last week against the previously winless Jets as the offence spluttered its way to a 23-20 loss.
Fortunately, at least from a betting perspective, that loss could turn out to be a positive when you consider the Rams are a perfect 4-0 following a previous defeat.
The Rams have struggled in division play this year, but they can rest easy knowing they own the wood over the Seahawks.
LA has won seven of its last 10 games after defeating Seattle 23-16 when they met back in Week 10 and are also 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 road games.
While last week’s loss to the Jets was a cause for concern, the Rams do deserve a mulligan.
They intercepted Russell Wilson twice when they previously met and it’s highly unlikely the offence struggles two weeks in a row.
Tip: Back the Rams to Cover the Line (+1 Point) @ $1.98
The Cowboys suddenly find themselves right back in the thick of things following last week’s big win over the 49ers.
Dallas currently sits third in the NFC East at 5-9, but they could wind up on top of the division if the Giants and Washington both lose this week.
Standing in the Cowboys’ way is an Eagles team that remains one loss away from being eliminated.
After leading the Eagles to an upset win over the Saints in his first start under center, rookie Jalen Hurts was handed a taste of reality last week in a 33-26 loss to the Cardinals.
To be fair, Hurts put up great numbers and is no doubt a much better option at quarterback than Carson Wentz, but he’ll need to bring something special if he wishes to keep Philly’s season alive.
The Cowboys’ biggest advantage here is their run game.
Tony Pollard was enormous last week against San Francisco and the fact Ezekiel Elliott is likely to return from injury is an obvious boost.
The Eagles rank ninth in rushing yards allowed this year, so if the Cowboys can set up plenty of blocking lanes for their two backs, they might just make this ugly division a little more interesting.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win @ $2.05
This is a huge litmus test for these two sides as they both look to build some momentum heading into the postseason.
The Packers have been installed as the -3 favourites at time of publish, which might seem a little generous based on Green Bay’s lackluster second half last week against the Panthers.
On one hand, Aaron Rodgers and company are more than capable of slicing this questionable Titans defence apart, but on the other, Green Bay’s own defensive struggles might just see Derrick Henry rush for over 200 yards.
Tennessee can beat you in a number of ways, so if the Packers choose to stack the box and defend the run, they’ll likely be burned by Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown through the air.
The same also goes for the Titans, as the Packers’ offence currently ranks Top 10 in both passing and rushing yards.
To make matters even more complicated, these two sides both rank top three in points scored this year, which means this really should come down to which team can execute their offensive game plan the best.
It’s also worth noting that Packers/Titans games typically turn out to be a blowout.
Tennessee defeated Green Bay 47-25 when they last met back in 2016, while the Packers were on the opposite end of a 55-7 win at Lambeau back in 2012.
There’s a good chance this game also gets out of hand, especially if the Packers can somehow string together four quarters of consistency.
The other thing worth factoring in here is Matt LaFleur’s familiarity with the Titans after spending a season in Tennessee as the offensive coordinator back in 2018.
That kind of insider knowledge could go a long way to helping the Packers improve to 12-3, and after some questionable play calling last week in the second half, he shouldn’t be short on motivation.
Tip: Back the Packers to Cover the Line (-4 Points) @ $1.90
There might be nothing left to play for in this AFC East rivalry, but don’t for one second think it won’t be exciting.
The Patriots have officially been eliminated from playoff contention for the first time since 2008, while the Bills have secured their first AFC East title since 1995.
Buffalo took care of the Patriots 24-21 when they met back in November, but it appears the bookies fancy the Bills to win by much more this time around.
The Bills are laying -7 following their fourth straight win over the Broncos last week, and judging by the way Josh Allen and the rest of the offence moved the ball, they should have no trouble putting up another big number.
New England has been Buffalo’s kryptonite for a very long time, so it’s likely the Bills will relish the chance at sweeping the Patriots.
When you throw in the fact the Patriots have scored only 15 points in their last two games, it’s hard to see New England matching Buffalo for a full four quarters.
Tip: Back the Bills 1-13 @ $2.40
2019
Two weeks remain in the regular season and time is quickly running out for several teams to lock up a playoff spot.
We’ve officially reached the point in the year where the bad games far outweigh the good, but the NFL has done a great job setting up a Sunday triple-header that holds enormous importance.
Monday also features a key NFC East rivalry game as the Cowboys and Eagles duke it out for division supremacy. Throw in a crucial Monday Night Football game between the Packers and the Vikings, and you have the makings for a big week ahead.
We’ve previewed all 16 games and our complete 2019 NFL Week 16 Preview can be found below.
A three-point win over the rival Titans was enough to provide a cushion between the Texans and the rest of the AFC South, but Bill O’Brien’s will need to be at their best this week as they travel to face a Tampa Bay side riding a four-game winning streak.
The Bucs are one win away from improving to 8-7 after destroying the Lions on the road last week. Tampa Bay’s offence ranks third in the league in points scored, posing an enormous challenge for a Texans defence that has struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Houston occupies the fourth seed in the AFC, but the jury is still out on whether the Texans are a legitimate playoff threat or not.
Either way, Texans fans can rest a little easier knowing they’ve won three of their four meetings against the Bucs.
Houston’s season has also gone loss, win, win (in that order) all season long, meaning the Texans are due for another big win ahead of their rematch against the Titans in Week 17.
Tip: Back the Texans 1-10
It’s fairly simple math this week: if the Patriots win, they clinch the AFC East, and if the Bills win… chaos ensues.
Buffalo has already clinched a playoff spot after pulling off a huge road win over the Steelers last week. The victory marked the Bills’ first 10-win season since 1999, but you can expect Sean McDermott to be hungry for a statement win against New England.
The Patriots got off to a slow start last week in Cincinnati before piling on the points for a comfortable win. The Patriots have opened as -6 favourites with home-field advantage, which was also the same margin of victory when these two met back in Week 4.
Buffalo’s defence has been outstanding holding three of their last four opponents to under 20-points. The Bills have also lost only one game this year by more than a touchdown, making the line a very safe bet.
If you’re looking for one last thing to hang your hat on, make it this: the Bills are 4-1 as the away underdog against the spread.
Tip: Back the Bills to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $1.96
The guessing game in the NFC West continues as both the Niners and the Rams suffered a pair of losses last week.
For the third time this season San Francisco managed to lose with under 10-seconds remaining as the Falcons scored a game-winning touchdown on the goal line.
The heartbreaking loss leaves the Niners now sitting with the fifth seed in the NFC, although the Rams’ loss to the Cowboys did help them secure a playoff spot.
Neither coach will need to rewind too far in their pre-game film studies this week. The Niners handed Los Angeles a 20-7 loss when they last met back in Week 6, but with big time playoff implications on the line this time around, things could turn out a little differently.
The Rams were embarrassed by the Cowboys last week as the defence fell apart. The good news is Los Angeles has consistently backed up a loss to cover in four of their five games against the spread, leaving the +6 line on the Rams looking a little generous.
Tip: Back the Rams to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $1.92
The ledger is all square at the very bottom of the NFC East as the Giants and the Redskins both duke it out for win number four.
New York bid farewell to Eli Manning in style last week as the two-time Super Bowl champion exited Metlife Stadium a winner against the Dolphins.
The Redskins, meanwhile, weren’t quite as fortunate allowing a 14-10 halftime lead to slip against the Eagles at home.
Nothing about this game should make you excited, but if we are treated to another dose of Manning, we could be in for some fireworks.
Eli has won 19 of the 29 games he’s played in against the Redskins. He also owns a 33-27 touchdown-interception ratio against Washington, meaning points should come one way or another.
The Redskins are in line for a top five draft pick, but keep in mind, the Skins have put up a fight against the Packers and Eagles in back-to-back weeks.
New York will go without Evan Engram in this one, meaning Manning (or Daniel Jones) will be without one of their top targets.
With that in mind – and Eli’s resume against the Redskins – it’s worth taking a Same Game Multi.
Tip: Back the Redskins to Win & the Giants Over 19.5 Total Points @ $5.60
This is a vitally important game for the 8-6 Steelers if they hold any hope of securing a playoff berth.
Pittsburgh made life tough for themselves losing 17-10 to the Bills on Sunday Night Football last week, leaving themselves (and perhaps a few other teams) in control of their destiny.
The Steelers now face a mammoth job with back-to-back road games to close out the season. On one hand, the Jets shape up as a very beatable opponent, but on the other, winning in New York during time of year isn’t exactly easy.
Adam Gase’s side heads home well-rested having played two Friday’s ago against the Ravens. The Jets were no match for the Super Bowl favourites losing 42-21 in another stunning performance from Lamar Jackson.
The Jets won’t have to worry about containing one of the league’s best runners this week, but they will need to be wary of a Steelers team that has typically played some of its best football following a loss.
Pittsburgh is a near-perfect 4-1 against the spread following a previous loss and 4-2 in games played on the road. With so much to play for and a point to prove, take the Steelers to win this convincingly.
Tip: Back the Steelers to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.96
The Saints will be looking to lay a beatdown on another AFC South team after manhandling the Colts last week on Monday Night Football.
Drew Brees passed Peyton Manning for most career touchdown passes in the win, but things won’t come quite as easy against a Tennessee side playing for the eighth seed.
The Titans weren’t disgraced in their 24-21 loss to the division rival Texans last week, and really, they didn’t do a whole lot wrong. Dropped passes were the main culprit on offence, while the defence simply struggled on the ground.
New Orleans is an elite team when it comes to running the ball, so it’s hard to back against them this week.
That being said, the Titans are 2-2-1 against the spread following a previous loss this year, which makes the +3 line very intriguing.
These two sides have met only twice this decade, so a lack of familiarity with playing in Tennessee could see the Saints off to a slow start. Since this is a must-win game for the Titans, take them to at least keep it close.
Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+3 Points) @ $1.92
It’s only fitting that two sides fresh from a pair of last-second upsets meet with absolutely nothing on the line.
Jacksonville hit Raider Nation where it hurts as the Jags handed Oakland a loss in their final game at the Coliseum.
The Falcons, meanwhile, pulled off something just as memorable by beating the Niners on a Julio Jones touchdown catch with just five seconds remaining.
The winner of this game will improve to 6-9 – a small morale booster as both teams look to make significant chances during the offseason.
From a betting standpoint though, this is tough to pick. The last time the Falcons and Jaguars got together was way back in 2015, while neither team has been consistent enough to trust in the head-to-head market.
The 19-point Total on the Jags looks a little high in this one. Jacksonville has failed to put up more than 20-points in their last three games away from home, so if you absolutely have to bet on this game, take the Under.
Tip: Jaguars Under 19 Total Points @ $1.85
Two sides stuck in a serious funk meet on Monday in a game with very little importance.
For the Colts, a trip back home couldn’t have come at a better time following last week’s 34-7 beatdown in New Orleans. And as for the Panthers, well let’s just say this is probably the best chance Carolina has at earning one last win this season.
Indianapolis has opened as heavy favourites with home-field advantage, but the -7 spread looks a little ambitious for a team that has lost four straight games.
Carolina has won five of their last six games over the Colts, but you do have to rewind all the way back to 2015 to find their last meeting. Likewise, it’s also very difficult to find faith in the Panthers after losing their last six.
The way this season has turned out has been very disappointing for both teams, so this is a chance for either side to end things on a high note.
As far as a betting play goes though, it’s worth noting the Total has gone Over in four of Carolina’s last five games. The Total has also gone Over in four of the Colts’ last five games in December, so take this one to be high scoring.
Tip: Over 46 Total Points @ $1.92
NFL fans have had this game circled since the start of the season, only for the Browns to complete let everybody down.
It didn’t take long for Cleveland to revert back to its old dysfunctional ways with reports emerging during the week suggest several players want out from the Freddie Kitchens regime.
The distraction couldn’t have come at a worse time as the Browns now prepare to face not only their division rival, but also the Super Bowl favourites this week.
Cleveland has nothing left to play for, but for Baltimore, the scenario is simple: win and the first seed is yours.
The organized chaos at the Dawg Pound has the Browns as +10 underdogs this week, and it’s tough to disagree. Baltimore is 7-1 against the spread over their last eight games and also riding a 10-game winning streak.
Cleveland won 40-25 when these two sides met back in Week 4 but a lot has changed since then.
Considering the Browns have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opponents, this should be another field day for Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram in a comfortable Ravens win.
Tip: Back the Ravens to Cover the Line (-10 Points) @ $1.92
There’s very little to brag about as far as these two teams are concerned, but as the market suggests, this is a game you need to include in your multi’s.
The bookies can’t separate these two AFC cellar dwellers after both sides suffered blowout losses last week.
Cincinnati put up a fight in the first quarter against the Patriots before slumping to 1-13 on the year, while the Dolphins failed to find points in their 36-20 loss to the Giants.
The head-to-head market is choc-full of value; however you may want to play it safe and stick with the Total.
Cincinnati has won two of its last three meetings against the Dolphins, while the Total has gone Under in all three games. The Total has also gone Under in five of the Bengals’ six road games this year, so stick with the trends.
Tip: Under 46.5 Total Points
It appears even a 23-3 loss to the Chiefs wasn’t enough to sway our bookmakers away from the Broncos.
Denver has opened as -6.5 favourites ahead of Monday’s game against Detroit with the bookies clearly factoring in the Broncos’ two game unbeaten run at home.
It also goes without saying that the Lions have been awful since Matthew Stafford suffered a back injury in Week 9. Detroit lost a game they’d rather forget last week at home to Tampa Bay, extending the Lions’ losing streak to seven.
Managing only three points to the Chiefs is one thing, but the Broncos can score in a hurry when they want to. Only a fortnight ago Denver handed the Texans a 38-24 loss on the road, a result that came from some brilliant playmaking from Drew Lock.
On the flip side, the defence has typically struggled at home. The Broncos have allowed four of their five opponents to put up 16-points or more, while the Total has gone Over on the Lions in 12 of their last 13 games against AFC West opponents on the road.
Tip: Lions Over 15.5 Total Points @ $1.85
A last minute 20-16 loss to the Jaguars last week has all but put a line through the Raiders’ very faint playoff hopes.
In their final game at the Coliseum, Oakland somehow found a new way to disappoint their loyal fanbase by allowing a touchdown with just over 30-seconds remaining.
The loss seals Oakland’s fate as the Black Hole looks likely to go without January football for the third consecutive year.
The good news is the Raiders only have a short trip to Los Angeles this week, and with the Chargers also reeling at 5-9, this game holds tremendous value.
Surprisingly, Los Angeles is favoured by nearly a touchdown, which makes little sense considering the Chargers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.
Instead of risking it at the line though, you might be better off playing on the Total.
Road games have proven difficult for Oakland this year – particularly since the bye. The Raiders managed less than 10-points in their previous two games away from home, while the Chargers have put up less than 20-points in their previous two home games.
Oakland will also go without star running back Josh Jacobs for this game, so all things considered, the 45.5 points Total looks a little high.
Tip: Under 45.5 Total Points @ $1.92
The Seahawks have locked up a playoff spot with two weeks remaining, but they’ll be eager to hold on to the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win against the Cardinals.
Arizona improved to 4-9-1 last week with a blowout win over the Browns. The Cardinals have nothing left to play for at this point, but you can bet Kliff Kingsbury will have a plan instore to try and spoil Seattle’s party.
The Seahawks won comfortably when they traveled to Arizona back in Week 4 winning 27-10. A lot has changed since then though, as Kingsbury’s offence has really clicked into gear over the last month.
Arizona’s defence currently leads the league in yards allowed, so the Cardinals probably aren’t going to win this game unless Kyler Murray can pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season.
That being said, there is nothing stopping Arizona from keeping this game close. The Cardinals are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Seahawks, while they only lost by three when these two sides met at the Link last year.
Better yet, the Cardinals have been a strong betting play against the spread as the away underdog this year, covering in four of their six games. Throw in a 2-1 record after a win, and the +10 line on offer looks strong value.
Tip: Back the Cardinals to Cover the Line (+10 Points) @ $1.92
Will the Cowboys and Eagles finally decide this thing once and for all?
All square at 7-7 apiece, Dallas and Philadelphia meet with a playoff spot, and potentially the division crown, on the line.
The last time these two sides met was back in Week 7. The Cowboys walked away with a comfortable 37-10 victory that day, eerily similar to their 44-21 victory over the Rams last week.
Dallas is a force to be reckoned with when they play at their best and there is certainly no reason the Cowboys can’t put a dagger through the Eagles’ playoff hopes.
For the Cowboys to win they simply need to execute through the air. The Eagles have allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns this season, making a big game from the likes of Amari Cooper an absolute must.
From a trend’s perspective, the Cowboys have covered the spread in nine of their last 10-games against a division opponent. They’ve also won four straight over the Eagles dating back to 2017, so take Dallas to stake their claim for the division crown.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.92
A year ago, the Bears missed out on a spot in the Super Bowl thanks to an infamous doink-doink field goal. This time around, Chicago is set to miss out on the playoffs altogether.
Matt Nagy’s side was officially eliminated last week after losing 21-13 to the Packers. It’s been non-stop disappointment for the Bears all season long, and things aren’t about to get any easier with the Chiefs coming to town.
Kansas City has sewn up a playoff spot, but the Chiefs still have plenty to play for with the AFC’s No. 2 seed still up for grabs.
The Chiefs have now won four games in a row as the offence has found its rhythm again. Kansas City won comfortably 23-3 over the division rival Broncos last week and are now favoured by -6 ahead of their trip to Chicago.
Winning at Soldier Field this time of year is no easy task. The Chiefs haven’t played in Chicago since 2011, which could play into the Bears’ hands if the defence can create some pressure.
The Bears have allowed an average of only 15-points to opponents at home, while the defence also did well to hold Aaron Rodgers to just 203-yards and a touchdown last week.
When the spread is between 3.5 to 7-points, Chicago is 22-9 as the home underdog dating back to 1992. With that in mind, take the Bears to keep this interesting.
Tip: Back the Bears to Cover the Line (+6 Points) @ $1.92
The NFL has saved the best for last this week as the Vikings and the Packers meet in Minnesota with plenty on the line.
Green Bay secured a playoff spot last week with a win over Chicago and the Rams loss. At 11-3, the Packers only hold a one game lead ahead of the division rival Vikings though, meaning this game could go a long way to determining the seeding in the NFC.
The odds are well in favour of Minnesota with home-field advantage, and rightfully so. Brad Zimmer’s side hasn’t lost at home to the Packers since 2015, but you’ll want to consider a few things first before you have a bet on this game.
Green Bay’s defence is the second worst in the league when it comes to giving up big plays of 40+ yards or more. The Vikings are currently averaging 236 passing yards per-game, which means the Packers offence will need to be at its best if they wish to keep up with Minnesota on the scoreboard.
The good news is Green Bay should be able to do that when you consider how well they’ve run the ball of late. The last three games between these two sides have also been decided by no more than a touchdown, making the +5.5 line on the Packers look more than worthwhile.
Matt LaFleur’s side has covered the spread in three of their four games so far against division opponents. The Packers are also 4-2 against the spread on the road and 2-1 as the away underdog.
Tip: Back the Packers to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.92
2018
You can smell the Super Bowl from here, and with just two weeks remaining, it doesn’t get any bigger than Week 16 in the NFL.
For teams like the Colts, Eagles, Titans and Seahawks, just about everything is on the line, and with the Wild Card picture far from set, we’re in store for plenty of upsets.
We’ve previewed all 16 games and are confident we’ve backed some winners, so be sure to check out our complete 2018 NFL Week 16 Preview below.
This meeting between the 8-6 Titans and the 7-7 Redskins might not appear very exciting, but keep in mind both of these sides are still gunning for a potential Wild Card spot in the playoffs.
Tennessee are riding a three-game winning streak after defeating the Giants 17-0 last week. It was another huge 100-plus yard day for running back Derrick Henry, who has seen his yards-per-attempt increase from 2.3 to 5.0 over the course of two straight games.
The Redskins also pulled off a win last week over the hapless Jaguars. It was a big day for the Washington defence racking up two turnovers in the 16-13 victory, but with the Redskins quite literally limping their way toward the finish line, there’s not a lot to get excited about.
Since this is in an inter-conference battle, it’s not surprising to learn these two teams last met way back in 2014. The Redskins squeaked out a 19-17 win that day, but they’ll have their work cut out for them this time around in Tennessee – the Titans are 5-1 at home on the season.
Tip: Back Under 37 Total Points @ $1.95
The Chargers put the whole league on notice last week with one simple message during their 29-28 road win over the Chiefs: this team won’t die wondering.
Los Angeles scored what could have been the game-tying touchdown with four seconds on the clock. It looked like we were headed for overtime, but in a shock turn of events, head coach Anthony Lynn opted to go for two, a decision that ultimately won the Chargers not only the game, but also a playoff spot.
The Wild Card is locked in and the division crown is still a chance for LA – which is something we might be saying about Baltimore this time next week.
It took all four quarters for the 8-6 Ravens to knock off the Bucs at home last week, but there were once again some encouraging signs from the running game as Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon combined for over 250-yards on the ground.
This game shapes up as a tough one to predict between two of the league’s top defensive teams.
The Chargers are 5-2 at the StubHub Centre, so home field is vitally important to LA’s hopes this week. But can they really penetrate the Ravens’ run defence, a unit that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards all year?
All signs indicate star running back Melvin Gordon will return this week for LA, giving the Chargers offence a much needed boost. With a 4-2 record against the spread vs. Baltimore, look for the Chargers to cover against a very one dimensional Ravens attack.
Tip: Back the Chargers to Cover the Line (-5 Points) @ $1.95
Cleveland? Try Believeland.
The Browns are still in the hunt for a spot in the AFC Wild Card picture if they win out from here. Last week’s narrow one-point win over the Broncos was hardly convincing, but there’s no denying how far this team has come since firing former head coach Hue Jackson.
Fortunately for the Browns the schedule works in their favour with the Bengals coming to town. Cincinnati’s misery came to an end last week in a 30-16 win over the Raiders, but with fill-in quarterback Jeff Driskel showing zero accuracy and confidence in the pocket, things could get ugly this week.
A lot depends on Cleveland’s defence going forward, although it did stand up strongly against Denver on the final drive of last week’s game.
The Bengals know all too well about the Browns’ defence, having lost by 15-points to Cleveland back in November. On the flip side, with running back Nick Chubb meeting a Bengals defence that has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns, the Browns could be looking at three straight wins for the first time since 2014.
Tip: Back the Browns 7-12 @ $4.75
It’s hard to win games when you can’t score points.
The Cowboys laid a goose egg last week against the Colts on the road, falling by 29-points to Indianapolis in a game that highlighted the red zone struggles on offence.
Compared to the rest of the league, the Cowboys rank second last in redzone scoring percentage, which doesn’t bode well ahead of the playoffs. To make matters worse, the offensive line continues to cause headaches for Dak Prescott after allowing another three sacks last week.
The 5-9 Bucs have nothing to play for, however they are the kind of team capable of pulling off an upset on any given week.
On the other hand, Tampa Bay haven’t won on the road in Dallas since 2001, and with an awful defence incapable of stopping the pass, this should be the perfect turnaround game for the Cowboys at home.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-7 Points) @ $1.91
The 5-9 Lions sunk to new lows last week losing to the Bills 14-13 on the road.
It was yet another lacklustre performance from quarterback Matthew Stafford who threw for just 208-yards and a touchdown, while the defence was shredded for 117 rushing yards against a fairly weak Buffalo ground game.
The Vikings enjoyed quite the opposite last week defeating the Dolphins 41-17. Just when we thought we could write Minnesota out of the playoff picture, suddenly the Vikings look as dangerous as ever.
A week on from firing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, interim replacement Kevin Stefanski appeared to have the offence back to its very best. The Kirk Cousins-Stefon Diggs connection was clicking, but most importantly, running back Dalvin Cook finally enjoyed some sturdy blocking to run for 136-yards and two scores.
The Vikings made short work of the Lions back in November walking away with a 24-8 home victory. Minnesota haven’t lost in Detroit since 2016, and with Stefanski relying squarely on the running game against the Lions’ miserable interior line, this should be nothing short of a blowout.
Tip: Back the Vikings 7-12 @ $5.00
Are the wheels finally falling off in New England?
Back-to-back losses for the second time this season has the panic button well and truly pressed with a tough road ahead in the playoffs.
It’s worth nothing the Patriots haven’t even clinched the AFC East just yet, but it’s safe to say a win over the Bills will seem them wrap up the division.
There were plenty of factors in play during last week’s loss to the Steelers. The main one has to be Tom Brady, who overthrew two receivers in the back of the end zone on the final drive of the game.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski also endured a day to forget catching just two passes for 21-yards. After so many weeks of scrutiny surrounding the defence, suddenly it’s New England’s offence that has everyone puzzled.
Fortunately, the Patriots hold a convincing 22-3 record against the Bills in their last 25 meetings. The Bills last won at Gillette in 2016, but with rookie quarterback Josh Allen facing his first big test on the road, the odds of the Patriots losing this game remain almost impossible.
Tip: Back the Patriots to Cover The Line (-13 Points) @ $1.95
Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold played perhaps the best game of his young career in the Jets’ agonising 29-22 loss to the Texans last week.
Passing for 253-yards and two touchdowns, Darnold made some clutch throws to wide receiver Robby Anderson, flashing signs of what the future might hold on offence for New York.
For the Packers, things weren’t quite so encouraging against the Bears. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams hooked up for their usual triple digit total, but the 24-17 scoreline wasn’t the only loss Green Bay felt on the day – they’ve now lost running back Aaron Jones for the remainder of the season.
That leaves the Packers relying heavily on the passing game, which could spell trouble against a Jets pass rush that sacked Deshaun Watson six times last week. To make matters worse, Green Bay are now toying with the idea of resting the oft-injured Rodgers for the remainder of the season.
The Packers haven’t traveled to Metlife to face the Jets since 2010, a game Green Bay won 9-0 on a very dull day from Rodgers in the pocket.
This game figures to be just as low-scoring, and with the Jets high on confidence and the Packers low on play-makers, the Points market is your best bet.
Tip: Back Under 44.5 Total Points @ $1.91
The Eagles enter this game as the favourites at home, and who can blame the bookies? The Nick Foles fanfare is running riot for the second season in a row.
You can’t compare this year’s team to last year’s, but the Eagles are still a serious playoff chance at 7-7.
They’ll have to take care of the 10-4 Texans this week though, who are also looking to clinch the AFC South – but given Houston’s performance last Sunday, the market looks just about right.
Houston’s offensive line was atrocious in the win over the Jets, allowing six sacks on quarterback Deshaun Watson. On the opposite side the defensive line was equally poor allowing Sam Darnold plenty of time to escape from the pocket and make a play.
Much of this game does come down to Foles, however. If he can find Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz as often as possible, the Eagles will be tough to beat. But if Philly has to rely on their offence, things look less than encouraging.
The Eagles are 15-4 in their last 19 games at home while the Texans are 5-2 on the road this year. It doesn’t help that these two haven’t met since 2014, but with the Eagles basically hoping history repeats itself, roll with the Texans in a close one.
Tip: Back the Texans To Win @ $2.10
It’s now or never for the Panthers as the light continues to dim on their almost lost season.
At 6-8 Carolina need a miracle to make the playoffs, but all hope looks lost after the team announced Cam Newton will miss the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury.
We’ve already seen how hard it is for the Panthers to win at home this year though, and despite their 5-6 record, we’ve also seen how difficult it can be for Carolina to defeat Atlanta.
The Falcons walked away 31-24 winners when these two sides met earlier in September, and are fresh from a 40-14 blowout over the Cardinals last week.
Carolina are 4-2 in their last six home games against the Falcons, however their 1-5 record against Atlanta at the line makes it tough to back the favourites.
With the Falcons’ defence completely non-existent, you’ll be happy to know the Total has resulted in the Under in four of Carolina’s last five games against Atlanta.
Tip: Back Under 44 Total Points @ $1.91
It would be a crying shame if the Colts were to somehow miss the playoffs from here.
Indy’s 23-0 shutout win over the Cowboys last week saw them improve to 8-6 on the season, and with a very winnable game against the Giants in hand, Frank Reich looks certain to win the Coach of the Year award.
Speaking of shutouts, the Giants have nothing left to play for following their 17-0 loss to the Titans last week. It was a quiet game for Rookie of the Year shoo-in Saquon Barkley who rushed for just 31-yards, while the passing game struggled with Odell Beckham Jr. out injured.
New York haven’t played Indianapolis since 2014 and are 4-12 in their last 16 road games. Beckham looks likely to return this week, but with the Colts a near perfect 4-1 against the line against the Giants, this look a bit beyond Big Blue.
Tip: Back the Colts to Cover The Line (-9 Points) @ $1.91
This game might look a little unappealing on paper, but when you consider what’s on the line for the Dolphins this week, it’s certainly worth watching.
A win for Miami and a Colts or Titans loss could put them in the driver’s seat for a spot in the AFC Wild Card game, and after Jacksonville’s last minute meltdown against the Redskins last week, you have to like their chances.
The Dolphins are 4-2 at the line in their last six games and are 6-1 in their last seven home games. Jacksonville’s offence tallied only 192-yards last week, and although Miami’s run defence is one of the worst in the league, it’s hard to see the Jags winning against one of the top turnover teams in the league.
Tip: Dolphins to Cover The Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.91
Three turnovers from the Rams last week saw them lose back-to-back games for the first time this season.
Two of those came from quarterback Jared Goff who threw a pair of interceptions in the 30-23 loss to the Eagles. It’s far from panic stations, but it’s safe to say this Rams team hardly looks like the side that started the season 8-0.
A game against the 3-11 Cardinals is a perfect chance to turn things aroundthough, and that’s exactly what the Rams should do considering they defeated Arizona 34-0 back in Week 2.
Not surprisingly Los Angeles enter this game as the heavy favourites, and they should win this game comfortably – even with star running back Todd Gurley listed as day-to-day.
The Rams are 4-1 in their last five games against Arizona and are 6-2 in their last eight games when playing at State Farm Stadium.
Tip: Back the Rams to Cover The Line (-14 Points) @ $1.91
The 10-4 Bears clinched their first NFC North crown since 2010 last week thanks to a seven-point win over rivals Green Bay.
Chicago are arguably playing the best defence in the league right now after holding Aaron Rodgers scoreless, and they should have no trouble pressuring a Niners offensive line that has allowed 44 sacks this year.
San Francisco showed they are capable of the unthinkable by defeating the Seahawks in overtime last week, but the defence deserves full credit. The Niners forced a turnover and held Seattle to just three third down conversions, which adds another layer of interest to this week’s game at home.
The Bears are 3-3 on the road this season, and they haven’t travelled to San Francisco since 2014. The odds also tell a story – the Bears open as minor four-point favourites.
We’ve seen Nick Mullens on more than one occasion come through with a big game in the air, and perhaps a healthy Matt Breida can challenge the Bears’ interior line.
Most importantly, if San Francisco can contain Mitch Trubisky like they did Russell Wilson on the ground last week, the upset should be on.
Tip: Back the Niners at the Line (+4 Points) @ $1.91
The Steelers’ 17-10 victory over the Patriots last week wasn’t pretty, but it was the upset Pittsburgh needed to keep the AFC North crown within reach.
New Orleans already had the NFC South locked up prior to last week, but a 12-9 victory over the Panthers earned them some serious bragging rights against a rival.
Both results set up a massive blockbuster this week between two teams that could very well meet in the Super Bowl.
The last time we saw these two duke it out was back in 2014, a game that saw the Saints steal a narrow 35-32 win on the road. Only this time around, New Orleans will be helped out by home-field advantage, a factor that can’t be stressed enough.
The Saints have lost just one of their games in the Superdome this year, and are also 5-1 at the line in their last five home games.
Pittsburgh will be relying heavily on the status of running back James Conner, who still remains questionable with an ankle injury. Even if Conner does play though, the Steelers don’t stand a chance against a Saints defence that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league.
Tip: Back the Saints to Cover The Line (-5.5 Points) @ $1.91
It’s only fitting that these two teams, both of which come off of devastating losses, meet this week in Seattle.
Despite owning a playoff spot, the Chiefs are still trying to clinch the AFC West with two games remaining. Meanwhile, the 8-6 Seahawks are fighting for their spot in the NFC Wild Card picture following an overtime loss to the Niners last week.
Kansas City’s defence is causing real issues as the playoffs approach, and so is the lack of a ground game following Kareem Hunt’s release.
As for Seattle, you can’t chalk last week’s loss up to bad luck – the Seahawks had their opportunities, but failed to convert on third down.
There’ll be no hiding for either side this week on the primetime stage of Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks have won just six of their last 25 games against the Chiefs, but more importantly are 4-2 at home against Kansas City.
If the Seahawks can grind it out on the ground and execute some blocks, Seattle should make short work of Kansas City’s horrible run defence.
Tip: Back the Seahawks To Win @ $2.15
This time-honoured rivalry isn’t what it used to be, and it’s fair to suggest it’s not even worthy of the second-last Monday Night Football game of the year.
Even so, the Broncos put on a show last week in their narrow one-point loss to the Browns. It all but cancelled out their playoff hopes however, leaving this game with nothing but bragging rights to contend.
The Raiders fell by 14-points to the Bengals last week in a game Oakland would like to forget. Similarly, the Raiders’ one-point loss to the Broncos back in September probably isn’t a game Oakland hold fond memories of either.
Defensively the Broncos hold a huge advantage, and with the sixth most sacks and the sixth most turnovers in the league, it spells nothing but bad news for Jon Gruden’s side.
Denver are 5-2 in their last seven games at the line when playing in Oakland, which makes them a safe bet to cover in what could be the final game at the historic County Coliseum.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (-3 Points) @ $1.95
2017
Christmas morning is sorted for NFL fans in Australia.
The NFL action gets underway with two games on Christmas Eve before Christmas morning is packed full of a host of big games.
We have analysed every game set to take place in the NFL this weekend and our complete 2017 NFL Week 16 tips can be found below.
The Baltimore Ravens are the shortest-priced favourites in the NFL this weekend.
Baltimore have won four of their past five games as home favourites and they are 3-2 against the line in this scenario.
It has been a season to forget for the Indianapolis Colts and they have won only one of their 13 games as away underdogs, while they are 2-6 against the line away from home.
Back Baltimore To Beat The Line (-13.5 Points)
Aaron Rodgers is back on the injured reserve and it is the high-flying Minnesota Vikings that will start this clash as clear favourites.
Minnesota have won three of their past four games as away favourites, but they are only a middling 2-2 against the line in this scenario.
The Green Bay Packers have lost their past three games as home underdogs and they are tough to back with any confidence without Rodgers in the side.
This is a game that the market looks to have gotten just about right.
No Bet
The Los Angeles Rams recorded a massive win over the Seattle Seahawks last week and they will start this clash as clear favourites.
Los Angeles have won their past three games as away favourites and they are 2-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Tennessee Titans remain in the NFL Playoffs hunt, but desperately need to turn around their form after losing two games on the trot.
Tennessee have lost their past three games as underdogs and it is tough to back them off their recent efforts.
Back Los Angeles To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
There is plenty on the line for both the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills in this clash.
The Patriots won a thriller over the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend and they have won six of their past eight games as home favourites, while they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
Buffalo have gotten themselves back in the Playoffs race with two wins on the trot and they have won two of their past five games as away underdogs for a clear profit.
This is another game that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
No Bet
The Chicago Bears have won only one of their past seven games, but they will still start this clash as favourites against the winless Cleveland Browns.
Chicago have lost their past two games as home favourites, but they have won their past two games against Cleveland.
The Browns losing streak continued at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last weekend and they have been a losing betting proposition across every metric.
It is impossible to back either of these teams with any confidence.
No Bet
This is a massive game between these NFC South rivals.
They played out a thriller that was won by the Atlanta Falcons a fortnight ago and there is sure to be very little between these two sides once again.
The Saints have won their past six games as home favourites and they are 7-2 against the line as the punter’s elect over the past 12 months.
Atlanta have won one of their past three games as away underdogs, but they have won their past three games against the Saints.
The Saints can end their losing streak against the Falcons and cover the line of 5.5 points in the process.
Back New Orleans To Beat The Line (-5.5 Points)
This is a must-win clash for the Detroit Lions and they will start it as favourites.
Detroit have won their past three games as away favourites and they have been a profitable play against the line in this scenario.
The Cincinnati Bengals have lost three games on the trot and they are a team that look to have given up on this season, but they generally do save their best football for their home fans.
No Bet
The Carolina Panthers will clinch a place in the NFL Playoffs with a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Carolina have won three of their past five games as home favourites for a small loss and they are only a middling 2-1-2 against the line in this scenario.
Tampa Bay have lost four games on the trot in heartbreaking fashion and there is no doubt that this season has been a disappointment.
They have lost their past four games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
Back Over 46.5 Points
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the shortest-priced favourites in the NFL this weekend.
Kansas City have won six of their past nine games in front of their home fans and they have beaten the line in each of these wins.
The Miami Dolphins have won two of their past seven games as away underdogs and their record against the line is no better.
Kansas City have returned to a semblance of their best form and they can win this game comfortably.
Back Kansas City To Beat The Line (-10.5 Points)
The Denver Broncos have won two games on the trot, but it is the Washington Redskins that will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Washington have won three of their past four games as home favourites, but they are only a middling 2-2 against the line in this scenario.
Denver have won only one of their past eight on the road and their record against the line is not any better.
Back Washington To Beat The Line (-3.5 Points)
The Los Angeles Chargers must win this game to remain in NFL Playoffs contention.
Los Angeles have won their only game as away favourites this season, but their overall record on the road is poor.
MetLife Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for the New York Jets this season and they have won five of their past eight games as home underdogs for a huge profit, while they are 7-1 against the line in that scenario.
In saying that, they have not looked like the same team without Josh McCown under centre and Bryce Petty was poor in his first game as starter this season.
No Bet
The Jimmy Garoppolo era in San Francisco has gotten off to an outstanding start, but it is still the Jacksonville Jaguars that will start this clash as favourites.
Jacksonville have struggled for consistency on the road somewhat this season and they have won only two of their past four games as away favourites.
San Francisco have recorded upset wins over both the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans with Garoppolo under centre and they have won their past two games against the Jaguars.
It is hard not to be impressed by the football that the 49ers have played in recent weeks and they are capable of pulling off an upset.
Back San Francisco To Win @ $2.70
This is a must-win game for both the Dallas Cowboys and the Seattle Seahawks.
The Cowboys have won three games on the trot and they will be buoyed by the return of Ezekiel Elliot.
Dallas have won only three of their past six game as home favourites and they have been a losing betting play in general this season.
Seattle have won only one of their past five games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario is no better.
This should be a fascinating clash, but it is one that I am happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.
No Bet
It is the Arizona Cardinals that will start this clash with the New York Giants as favourites.
Arizona may have had a tough season, but they have been a profitable betting play in front of their home fans at the University Of Phoenix Stadium.
The Giants have now lost seven of their past eight games, but they have covered the line in five of their past eight games as away underdogs.
Both offences could struggle in what should be a low-scoring game.
Back Under 40.5 Points
The Pittsburgh Steelers are dominant favourites to return to winning form following their heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans.
Pittsburgh have won five of their past six games as away favourites, but they are a poor 2-4 against the line in this scenario.
Houston’s season hit a new low when they were flogged by the Jacksonville Jaguars last weekend and they are impossible to trust in just about any betting scenario.
This is a game that Pittsburgh should win comfortably, but there is no value at their current price.
No Bet
The Philadelphia Eagles will convince the number one seed in the NFC with a win over the Oakland Raiders, while the Raiders are all but out of NFL Playoff calculations.
Philadelphia have won their past seven games as home favourites and they are a most impressive 6-1 against the line in this scenario.
The Raiders have been particularly poor away from home this season and they have won only one of their past six games as away underdogs, while their record against the line is no better.
Backing the Eagles all season long has been a highly profitable play and there is no reason to jump off.
Back Philadelphia To Beat The Line (-9.5 Points)
2016/2017
It may be Christmas, but there is no rest in the NFL.
You can spend Christmas morning in Australia watching NFL action and most of the teams in the league will be in action.
There are an unlucky two teams that will actually play on Christmas Day in the United States – perfect Boxing Day viewing for those of us in Australia – and the action concludes on Tuesday when the Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions.
The Philadelphia Eagles have won just one of their past eight games and the New York Giants are 3-0 as away favourites this season.
Back New York To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
The Buffalo Bills have won four of their past five games as home favourites, while the Miami Dolphins are 2-4 as away underdogs.
Back Buffalo To Beat The Line (-4 Points)
The New Orleans Saints have won just three of their past seven games as home favourites for a clear loss, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won five of their past eight games as away underdogs.
The Buccaneers are one of the best value bets of the week.
Back Tampa Bay To Win @ $2.25
The New England Patriots are the shortest-priced favourites of the weekend and they have beaten the line in six of their past eight games as home favourites.
New York have played some awful football in recent weeks and they are 2-4 as away underdogs this season.
Back New England To Beat The Line (-16.5 Points)
Jacksonville have fired head coach Gus Bradley after yet another loss at the hands of the Houston Texans.
The Jaguars are 1-3 against the line as away underdogs and the Tennessee Titans have won their only game as home favourites this season.
Back Tennessee To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)
The Green Bay Packers have won four games on the trot, but they have still been a losing betting proposition as home favourites this season.
Minnesota are 2-2 as away underdogs and they are over the odds at their current price.
Back Minnesota To Win @ $3.40
The Cleveland Browns have lost their past eight games as home underdogs and the San Diego Chargers are 5-3 against the line away from home.
Back San Diego To Beat The Line (-6 Points)
The Washington Redskins have been inconsistent as away favourites in recent seasons and the Chicago Bears have won three of their past six games as home underdogs for a clear profit.
Back Chicago To Win @ $2.55
This will be the first game that the Carolina Panthers have started as home underdogs in the past 12 months, but they have won seven of their past 10 games in front of their home fans.
Atlanta have won their past two games as home favourites and they are 6-1 against the line away from home.
Back Atlanta To Beat The Line (-2.5 Points)
The Oakland Raiders have won seven of their past eight games, but their record against the line in this scenario is not particularly strong.
Indianapolis have won five of their past eight games as away underdogs for a big profit.
Back Indianapolis To Win @ $2.55
The Seattle Seahawks have won seven of their past eight games as home favourites and they are 4-1-3 against the line in this scenario, while the Arizona Cardinals have failed to cover the line in their past four games as away underdogs.
The Los Angeles Rams have won just one of their past five games at home, while the San Francisco 49ers have lost their past seven games as away underdogs.
These teams are both impossible to trust from a betting perspective.
No Bet
The Houston Texans have won their past six games as home favourites and the Cincinnati Bengals have won just one of their past five games as away underdogs.
Back Houston To Win @ $1.87
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won five games on the trot and they are 4-1 as home favourites in both head-to-head and line betting markets.
The Baltimore Ravens have lost their past five games as away underdogs and they are 1-4 against the line in this scenario.
Back Pittsburgh To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)
The Kansas City Chiefs have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites, but they are 2-1-6 against the line in this scenario.
Denver have won two of their past three games as away underdogs and they have the same record against the line.
Back Denver To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
The Dallas Cowboys returned to winning form last weekend and they have now won five of their past six games as home favourites, while Detroit have won three of their past six games as away underdogs.
No Bet