As we head into the final week of the NFL regular season 12 of the 14 playoff spots have been locked up but there is still plenty on the line in the coming days.
It all kicks off Sunday morning (AEDT), with the AFC North division title being decided as the Baltimore Ravens just need to take care of business against the Cleveland Browns.
Should they somehow falter, that would open the door for the Pittsburgh Steelers to pinch the crown and third seed while also knocking out the Cincinnati Bengals who still have a faint hope of sneaking in as a wild card.
For that to happen they have to beat Pittsburgh before an anxious wait until Monday where they need both Miami and Denver to lose their games.
Over in the NFC, the South is in the hands of Tampa Bay who just has to win and they are in, otherwise Atlanta could clinch the final spot.
But without a doubt the biggest game is between the 14-2 Detroit Lions and the 14-2 Vikings, with the winner claiming home field advantage and the all important first round bye, while the other gets relegated to the five seed and a road game next weekend.
It’s a tough weekend to pick with all sorts of varying motivations for different teams but we have found our best bets for every game below.
Cleveland has already stunned Baltimore once this season, but this would be an even more seismic upset back in Week 8 as 8.5 point underdogs.
However since that game the Browns’ roster has been completely decimated with injury and the Ravens have gone from strength to strength.
They have won their last three games, all by 17 points or more including a 31-2 dismantling of Houston on Christmas Day.
Perhaps the only concern over this massive line is the Ravens cruising to a halftime lead, the starters getting pulled to avoid injury and the Browns mounting some sort of late comeback.
The first two parts of that scenario are very realistic, but with Bailey Zappe making his first start of the season for the Browns, the comeback seems unlikely.
Especially because the Ravens won’t be able to pull every starter once they get the game in hand.
Baltimore to Cover -17.5 @ $1.90
While a Baltimore win in the first game does remove the possibility of Pittsburgh stealing the AFC North, they will still have something to play for at kickoff.
Outwardly they will say they are happy to play wherever they have to on Wild Card Weekend, there is no doubt that Mike Tomlin would much prefer a trip to Houston as the fifth seed instead of another game against Baltimore as the sixth seed.
Plus there is the added bonus of eliminating the Bengals from playoff contention, with the visitors needing something akin to divine intervention to make it from here.
One thing that is for certain however is that Joe Burrow has been on a tear in recent weeks, even if it has come a little bit too late.
He has thrown for three or more touchdowns in his last eight games, which includes a 38-44 loss against Pittsburgh at the start of December.
Whether that’s enough is up for debate but the price on that happening again looks like the best bet in this market.
Joe Burrow 3+ Touchdown Passes @ $2.35
There really is not a lot of deep insight to have into this game, Atlanta needs to win by any means necessary and hope that Tampa loses, while Carolina can play spoiler.
Currently holding the sixth pick in the draft, the Panthers might not have a major interest in tanking this game if it can provide a confidence boost for Bryce Young heading into the offseason.
Admittedly they produced a total no-show in Tampa last week, but Atlanta does not look like a team that is capable of blowing an opponent out unless the Falcons get a lot of help.
This one might be a bit closer than expected, especially if Tampa gets out to an early lead in their game and Atlanta’s efforts become futile.
Carolina to Cover +8.5 @ $1.87
Washington is in, Dallas is done and what could have been a blockbuster bout suddenly carries a lot less weight.
The Commanders will have to play it out though, needing a victory to at least hold onto the sixth seed and avoid a trip to Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend.
Dallas will push them but at some point, the Commanders needs will spur them on to victory.
Washington to Cover -4.5 @ $1.90
Green Bay knows they will be travelling next weekend, most likely to Philadelphia and it sure sounds like their main starters will get some rest in this game against the Bears.
Running back Josh Jacobs has said he is not expecting too many carries in this one and any players who have uncertain injury designations are likely to be taken out early, if they start at all.
Which means their offensive output is likely to dop off from recent weeks where they were nailed on for 25 or more points.
Back in Week 11 they battled to a 20-19 win over Chicago whose young roster has had a rough season and they will probably be happy to get out of Lambeau Field in one piece and enter the offseason.
Under 41 Points @ $1.90
It’s the battle of the backup quarterbacks with Joe Flacco facing Mac Jones in a dead rubber, AFC South stoush.
On the plus side, we might actually see some points scored here, even if by accident.
Their first meeting this season (which saw Flacco and Trevor Lawrence at quarterback) finished 37-34 in favour of the Jags and the Colts have been scoring for fun in the last two weeks.
They put up 38 in a win over Tennessee and 33 in a loss to the Giants so they are at least going down swinging on one side of the ball.
Over 44 Points @ $1.94
If the respective coaching staffs are to be believed, this game will see Josh Allen and Drake Maye start but at some point, the backups are going to take over.
For the Bills they are locked into the AFC’s second seed and they could use a bit of a refresh ahead of next weekend’s playoff game,
Meanwhile, New England has not been winning at full strength, but they need Maye to get through this game in one piece and the only way to ensure that is to give Jacoby Brissett or Joe Milton some reps.
Not to mention a loss would also lock up the top pick in the draft, giving them complete control over the class.
Plus the Bills backups could quite possibly beat their starters anyway.
Buffalo to Cover -2.5 @ $1.94
The deeper you get into this early window, the more you realise there are some proper duds in there and this is yet another one.
For the Eagles they are going to be resting Saquon Barkley, while third string quarterback Tanner McKee appears to be getting the start in place of the injured Jalen Hurts and Kenny Pickett.
Meanwhile, the Giants could wind up anywhere from first to ninth in the draft order depending on the final score here.
That 45 point explosion against the Colts last week was phenomenally entertaining but very much an anomaly, they probably won’t be doing that two weeks in a row.
Under 37.5 Points @ $1.90
Momentum is a wonderful thing in the NFL and Tampa is the best bet of at least this group of games if not the entire week.
Last week they demolished Carolina 48-14 and they have to win here, while the remnants of the injury ravaged New Orleans roster just holds on for four quarters.
The Bucs demolished the Saints 51-27 in Week 6 and another 50-point afternoon is very much on the cards here.
Not only do Tampa need the win, but they have some notable milestones to chase, especially receiver Mike Evans who has a 1000-yard streak to keep alive and hit a $3million bonus in his contract.
Tampa is going to get accused of running up the score.
Tampa Bay to Cover -13.5 @ $1.90
Houston might see this as a get right game after some rough performances, especially on offence.
Admittedly they have lost several key contributors, most recently Tank Dell, but with a playoff game on the horizon, they have to sort themselves out.
The good news for them is the Titans won’t offer a whole lot of resistance after a meek effort against the lowly Jaguars last week.
The tank might not be openly happening but when you see the effort and execution on the field, you’ll know.
Don’t expect too many points then between the struggling offence and the team not overly invested in winning.
Under 37 Points @ $1.94
San Francisco will be very happy to get past this game and end a nightmare season that has been disrupted by injuries right up to and including Week 18.
While it is nothing that will impact contract negotiations in the offseason, Brock Purdy is the latest key 49ers player to get ruled out thanks to an elbow injury suffered late on against Detroit.
While Arizona cannot make the playoffs, they have some individuals chasing some personal contract incentives in this game including Kyler Murray.
The Cardinals have not been great this season but Murray should be able to run them to victory against this depleted 49ers outfit.
Arizona to Cover -4 @ $1.90
Now we have a game with some significant meaning, even if there are a few Chiefs stars set to take a seat ahead of kickoff.
Patrick Mahomes will get the day off and Carson Wentz will start in his place, with the former second overall pick hoping to replicate his last start, a Week 18 win for the LA Rams last season.
Chances are the likes of Travis Kelce and Chris Jones will also see no on field action which makes Denver’s job of winning a whole lot easier.
It also explains the massive disparity in the market with the Chiefs a double digit underdog, but there is reason to have a bit of confidence in the visitors here.
Andy Reid will still be coaching them and he will no doubt want to “reward” Wentz and the other backups for their efforts this season by giving them a chance to shine.
Not to mention Denver will be more than a bit tight as they try to end a nine season playoff drought and this line looks like it might just be a bit high.
Kansas City to Cover +10.5 @ $1.90
All signs are pointing towards this one being a stay away until at least Sunday afternoon when we know what the Chargers are playing for.
If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, they have nothing on the line and will be the AFC’s sixth seed.
Should the Bengals win however, they could give themselves a significantly easier Wild Card Weekend assignment by beating Las Vegas and moving up to the fifth seed, which would send them to Houston next weekend.
Working off the assumption Cincinnati will win, the Chargers then have every reason to go for it and we saw what they did to the Patriots last week.
If they have to win, they will likely do so in convincing fashion.
LA Chargers to Cover -4.5 @ $1.90
Rams head coach Sean McVay has gone on record saying he does not care if his NFC West champion team will be the third or fourth seed in the playoffs.
Based on his announcements about who is and is not playing this weekend he is certainly committed to the bit, with Matthew Stafford set to sit out and Jimmy Garoppolo starting in his place.
The guys who do go out there on Monday morning will be eager to win the game and showcase themselves in the best light possible and that should give them a chance against the Seahawks, who are now just playing out the string.
This one could be a bit closer than first thought and the Rams have a much better chance than advertised, especially if their defence is close to full strength.
LA Rams to Cover +6.5 @ $1.90
Chasing a third straight playoff appearance, the Miami Dolphins will have one eye on the happenings in New Jersey and another on the updates from Denver.
Should the Broncos fall to the Chiefs backups, Miami will have the inside track to the playoffs and based on how the Jets are going, they are almost certain to take care of their division rivals.
Aaron Rodgers will likely be greeted by a chorus of boos as he plays what is possibly, if not likely to be the final game of his decorated career, even if his Jets tenure was a massive disaster.
Meanwhile, Miami will probably have to get the job done without Tua Tagovailoa who has been battling another injury.
That just means that we will have two very limited offences on the field and that will put points at a premium, which means it probably won’t be the most entertaining watch.
Under 39 Points @ $1.90
A day full of duds is redeemed by this huge blockbuster and it’s time to go big for the last game of the regular season.
We have already outlined what is at stake for the teams, so let’s back their respective superstars to have a big day.
Jahmyr Gibbs will once again shoulder the load for the Lions and he has relished the lead back role, going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown in his last two starts.
Meanwhile for the Vikings, Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson will likely have a field day against a depleted Lions defence.
There is a reason this is the highest total of the season and both teams scoring 30 points is very much on the cards.
SGM: Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown, Justin Jefferson 90+ Receiving Yards, Jahmyr Gibbs 90+ Rushing Yards @ $11.41
2023
For 11 teams, it all comes down to Week 18 to determine their NFL Playoff fate with four division titles and three wild card spots set to be finalised this weekend.
It all kicks off with a pair of pivotal AFC clashes on Sunday as Pittsburgh plays Baltimore needing a win and some help on Monday to get in.
Then we have a de facto playoff game between Houston and Indianapolis with both needing a win to extend their season.
A busy Monday finishes off with the AFC East title game between Buffalo and Miami!
Just about every game carries some meaning for playoff positioning or draft spots, and we’ve got you covered with our NFL previews and best bets at Ladbrokes!
Despite locking up the AFC’s top seed, Baltimore still has a couple of critical factors to consider when planning their approach to this game.
If they choose to rest their starters, a common approach for teams in their position, it will be three weeks between competitive games.
Something that backfired on them in 2019 when they rested MVP-elect Lamar Jackson and other starters only to get bowled over by Tennessee in the Divisional Round.
On top of that, they can end the season of their hated rivals Pittsburgh then and there, rather than give them hope of a playoff berth.
While John Harbaugh is yet to commit to a decision at the time of publish, the market is expecting the key players to get the weekend off (at the time of publish).
I can’t imagine that Jackson and co play the entire game and a desperate Pittsburgh team will finish over the top of Baltimore’s backups to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
Pittsburgh to Cover -3.5 @ $1.90
There will be no questioning the approach of these two teams heading into this game, anything less than a win and their hopes of a home playoff game (or potentially any playoff game) will be finished.
Not that it will mean too much in this game, but the Colts got the better of the Texans in Week 2 and they would dearly love to complete the season sweep in this de facto postseason contest.
Houston is a different animal with CJ Stroud at quarterback as the Titans found out last week, getting blasted out of the water 26-3 and the improved performance of their defence should be able to keep them in this game.
Indianapolis will be very happy that this game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium however, they have won their last three at home and have scored at least 21 points in all eight home games this season.
The injuries to the Texans offence do concern me, but the ground game is still relatively intact and the Colts have given up big days to opposing rushers.
I’m expecting a shootout but I have to also side with Stroud in this instance as he wraps up his Offensive Rookie of the Year honours by securing a win and keeping their playoff hopes alive for another day.
Houston to Win and Over 47.5 Points @ $3.25
There will be a fair bit of scoreboard watching taking place with both teams needing to win this game and get a bit of help to secure an unlikely playoff berth.
Chances are for Atlanta it will be blind hope above all else as their only path relies on winning this game and Tampa performing an all time choke job against the lowly Panthers.
New Orleans also needs a win plus a Tampa loss to win the NFC South but they can still sneak into the playoffs with a win plus both Green Bay and Seattle losing their games.
While none of those scenarios seem overly likely, these teams will have to go for it and hope for the best, especially with Seattle and Green Bay featuring in the late window.
Once Tampa gets a comfortable lead on Carolina I am expecting Atlanta to put the clubs away and get run over by the Saints, they at least have a reason to play to the end no matter what.
New Orleans to Cover -3 @ $1.87
Cleveland has absolutely nothing to gain from this game having been locked into the AFC’s fifth seed already and this beaten up team could use a week off.
That will be music to the ears of Cincinnati, a good team whose season was derailed by multiple injuries to key players and they will want to end the season on a positive note.
The Browns will just be happy to get out of this game in one piece and will take this one lightly, Bengals by a touchdown.
Cincinnati to Cover -7 @ $1.90
It’s a simple scenario for Jacksonville, win this game and they will be hosting a Wild Card game next weekend.
There is a scenario where they could still sneak in with a pair of favourable results but the easy outcome for them is win and in.
While Tennessee might want to play spoiler here, their effort against Houston last week does not exactly suggest their motivation will be at an all time high.
Having had last week off to recover from an injury, Trevor Lawrence should be back for this critical game and that should be enough to get the Jags home.
Jacksonville to Cover -5.5 @ $1.90
We will get a good idea about the mental toughness of the Detroit Lions in this game as they will have an opportunity to steal the second seed in the NFC with a win and some help.
It helps that Minnesota has kind of given up and/or run out of capable quarterbacks, but they will want to put this one to bed early.
While the margin of victory won’t make a difference in terms of tiebreaker, you get the feeling Detroit would love to put last week behind them with a belting of a division rival.
Detroit to Win by 14+ @ $4.00
It is going to be a strange feeling at Gillette Stadium this weekend as we see what is most likely the last game of the Bill Belichick era in New England.
While the common sentiment is that it would be great to send Belichick out on a winning note, a loss would be much more beneficial for the long term future of the Patriots.
The problem with that is that Belichick and the Patriots own the Jets, winning the last 15 games including an ugly 15-10 game in the Meadowlands back in September.
Despite the obvious lack of talent, the team is still playing hard for Belichick and I just can’t see them losing this one to the Jets.
New England to Win @ $1.78
Some of these games are tough to get a read on, but this one requires half a second of thought.
Tampa needs to win to get into the playoffs, Carolina is going to finish with the worst record in the NFL.
It only matters for one team and Tampa should win this one easily, even if Carolina wanted to play spoiler they just aren’t good enough to do it.
Tampa Bay to Cover -4.5 @ $1.90
It’s another win and in scenario for Green Bay and the schedule could not have been more favourable, getting their bunnies in Chicago to wrap things up.
Aaron Rodgers’ ownership of the Bears was transferred to Jordan Love when the former was traded in the offseason and Love’s tenure as the Packers’ main guy began with a 38-20 win in Week 1.
Chicago won’t make this easy on them though, they have played really well since their bye, winning three of four and showing steady improvement on offence each week.
Not to mention Justin Fields has one more week to convince management that he is a better quarterback option than Caleb Williams who they could take in April’s NFL Draft.
That sets up a potential back and forth affair so the over looks to be the way to go, and with Green Bay facing a win and in scenario, I’ll back them to get the job done.
Green Bay to Win and Over 44.5 Points @ $2.95
Given the Cowboys’ history of follies since the turn of the millenium, it would be fitting for them to blow the second seed and NFC East title by losing to the Sam Howell lead Commanders.
After all, they just have to beat their 4-12 opponents and they will be hosting a game on Wild Card weekend and in the Divisional Round if they advance.
But their high flying offence has somewhat stumbled in recent weeks, failing to top 20 points in their last three games and CeeDee Lamb’s historic day spared their blushes against Detroit last week.
And in spite of all those red flags, I’m still going to back them to win and cover this game because Washington is just awful.
The Commanders have the league’s worst scoring defence, allowing at least 27 points in each of their last seven games and Dallas will tee off on Howell like they did in their 45-10 Thanksgiving win.
Dallas to Cover -13 @ $1.90
A rare Week 18 dead rubber will be played out on the site of next month’s Super Bowl and there is a decent case to be made for both teams to end the season with a win.
Vegas has shown flashes under Antonio Pierce, going 4-4 and claiming some big opponents on the way but they are still liable for a total no-show with players probably jetting off on holidays within 24 hours of the final whistle.
Denver has some guys playing for their jobs and Sean Payton will want to end the season on a positive note to have some momentum to take into the offseason program.
It’s an evenly matched affair so the value might be there on a Denver upset but I’m going to back the over and hope both offences put on a show.
Over 38 Points @ $1.90
A quick search of the headlines will explain why the 5-11 Chargers are favoured over the 10-6 Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes will sit out and other key starters will play limited snaps.
Kansas City is locked into the AFC’s third seed regardless of the outcome here and Reid is taking a calculated risk that a de facto bye week for his players will have them ready to go next week when the intensity is turned up a notch.
They might just need it having gone 3-4 since their off week back in mid-November and they have looked pretty average since then.
As much as Kansas City has struggled, LA’s issues are on a whole other level going 1-7 in their last eight and losing several key players to injury including Justin Herbert.
This might be the lowest scoring game of the entire weekend and the under is where I’ll be betting.
Under 35 Points @ $1.90
In the season of college bowl games, we may as well call this the Backup Bowl with both teams set to rest plenty of key players.
By all accounts, the quarterback battle will not be Matthew Stafford against Brock Purdy, instead it will be Carson Wentz against Sam Darnold.
On the plus side, we have two very well coached teams and their respective offensive systems do have a certain amount of in built production guaranteed.
And with the backups set to feature, they should both play with a certain amount of enthusiasm as they try to justify some playing time next week.
With all of those factors to consider, the over looks to be the way to go, it could be a blowout either way or a tight fought finish but either way we should see some points.
Over 41 Points @ $1.90
Just two weeks ago, the Giants pushed a full strength Eagles team on Christmas Day and the reigning NFC champions would have felt very fortunate to get out of that game with a win.
With Philadelphia needing to win and have Dallas lose in Washington to grab the NFC East title, Nick Sirianni’s approach will likely be dictated by the score updates from FedEx Field.
Once Dallas has that game in hand, I would not be at all surprised if the Eagles benched their stars including Jalen Hurts and decided to prioritise their health over getting win number 12.
That opens the door for the Giants to sneak in one last victory, and we know they are still playing hard after pushing the Rams all the way last week.
Taking them outright at $3.00 is tempting but I’ll take a bit of insurance at the line.
NY Giants to Cover +5 @ $1.90
Two likely offseason bound teams will close out their season in this NFC West clash.
Seattle could still sneak in with a win and a Green Bay loss but as mentioned above, I’m not expecting the Packers to blow their chances.
Seattle has been very hit and miss on both sides of the ball in the last few weeks but have really struggled to close games out, going 2-5 down the stretch.
Arizona has arguably been better than their record suggests this season, competing in a lot more games than their 4-12 record would suggest.
Not to mention the added motivation for players like Kyler Murray who are trying to keep their jobs in 2024.
This is a very different Cardinals team than the one that lost 20-10 in Seattle back in October and I really like their chances of springing an upset, especially if Green Bay gets control of their game early on and Seattle shuts up shop early.
Arizona to Win @ $2.25
The only way this game would be more appealing is if the winner took the division title and the loser was out of the playoffs entirely.
Buffalo might be facing that win or go home scenario if the Steelers and Jaguars win but Miami will be playing next week regardless.
However both teams will be desperate to win to avoid travelling on Wild Card Weekend with the winner hosting the seventh seed (currently Indianapolis).
Miami has gone 7-1 at home with their stats significantly better when playing in the familiar surrounds of Hard Rock Stadium.
But the number of injuries this team is dealing with is a massive concern, most recently losing pass rusher Bradley Chubb in garbage time of last week’s loss in Baltimore to a torn ACL.
Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with injuries but is playing, while pretty much all of his skill position players have missed time with injuries as well.
Buffalo will have the confidence of beating a much more healthy version of this Miami team back in October, and this is the time of year Josh Allen has the green light to turn into Superman.
Throughout the season we have seen him fighting his natural instincts but at this time of year the Bills’ coaching staff just has to let him go.
On his day there are few more impactful players in the NFL and none of them will be taking to the field in Miami for this one, he is going to be the difference as Buffalo defends their AFC East crown.
SGM: Buffalo Win, Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD Scorers @ $7.25
2022
While the shadow of the Damar Hamlin collapse will linger over every game this weekend, for many teams they will have to refocus and turn their attention back onto their respective tasks at hand.
That includes his teammates in Buffalo who still find themselves in control of the race for home field advantage in the AFC.
Home field advantage goes on the line in the NFC with Philadelphia looking to arrest a late season slide and hold off the fast finishing San Francisco and Dallas teams.
That’s just a taste of what is in store over the coming days and we’ve got you covered with our previews and best bets below!
Kicking off the new Sunday morning (AEDT) double header is this AFC West battle between the Chiefs and Raiders, with the latter having nothing on the line except for pride.
What has made Kansas City’s 13-3 record so impressive is the fact they have seemingly been in cruise control for most of the season and still have a chance at taking out home field advantage in the AFC.
Las Vegas will be eager to play spoiler and the performance of backup quarterback Jarett Stidham last week against one of the best defences in the league should allow them to keep pace with the Chiefs here.
When they met in Kansas City in October the Raiders had a chance to win that game and Josh McDaniels has plenty of experience in going after this Chiefs defence.
Nine of the Chiefs wins have been by 13 or fewer points and it would not be at all surprising to see the Raiders hang around into the fourth quarter before Patrick Mahomes does enough to lock up the MVP.
SGM: Kansas City by 1-13 & Over 52.5 Points @ $5.20
Two teams trending in opposite directions face off with the AFC South title on the line.
Tennessee soared to 7-3 before a six game losing streak has left them facing a win or go home scenario here.
Jacksonville on the other hand have gone from 3-7 to 8-8 and while it is technically possible for them to make the playoffs with a loss, it is a massive long shot.
Working in the Jaguars favour is the fact their defence has come to play in recent weeks and that should help them shut down Derrick Henry.
If they do that, it’s tough to see Tennessee doing anything on offence with Josh Dobbs set to make his second consecutive start in relief of Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis.
But with their own superstar running back in the making in Travis Etienne, the Jaguars are the bet to take here as the in form team.
SGM: Jacksonville to Win, Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer
It’s been too little too late for the New Orleans Saints with their three game winning streak not enough to thrust them into playoff contention.
Carolina saw their playoff hopes come to an end last week as well when they lost the de facto NFC South title game in Tampa Bay.
Losing might actually be a preferable outcome for the Panthers here with the potential to jump up a few spots in the 2023 NFL Draft order.
That isn’t as much of a motivating factor for the Saints with their first round pick now owned by Philadelphia.
With nothing on the line we might see a few trick plays coming out as these sides are happy to play out the string.
SGM: New Orleans to Win and Over 41.5 Points @ $2.97
Not only is a playoff berth still on the line for the Steelers, but they are trying to keep coach Mike Tomlin’s remarkable streak of never overseeing a losing season alive.
At 8-8 they will have to defeat a Cleveland side that is building for 2023 with Deshaun Watson returning to the lineup.
We’re going to be in for an ugly, low scoring, defensive encounter but there’s no other way Pittsburgh is going to want it played.
Rookie Kenny Pickett has come through in the clutch for the Steelers in the last two weeks and they should be able to take care of business as they have one eye on proceedings in Buffalo and Miami.
Back Pittsburgh to Cover -2.5 @ $1.90
In hindsight, the 20-20 tie these two played out in Week 1 should have been a sign of how bad the Colts would be rather than thinking the Texans would be much more competitive.
While Houston has a horrendously thin roster, they at least are playing hard and have found themselves in games in recent weeks.
It might wind up costing them the first overall pick and a shot at the best player coming out of the college ranks but you have to feel a lot better about them compared to the Colts dumpster fire.
To say Indianapolis is flying by the seat of their pants would imply a much higher level of thought and planning than is currently going on in Lucas Oil Stadium.
Back Houston to Win @ $2.20
Minnesota knows they are in the playoffs and are almost certainly locked into the NFC’s third seed.
That means they will be playing on Wild Card Weekend, probably against the New York Giants so this may wind up being a de facto preseason game for them with the starters only playing limited snaps.
However with the Bears potentially playing for the top pick in the draft and with Justin Fields already ruled out, Minnesota should still be able to handle their business in this game.
Add in the fact Justin Jefferson is an outside chance of setting the NFL record for most receiving yards in the season, he might get a fair few targets for heading for the bench.
SGM: Minnesota to Win, Justin Jefferson Over Total Receiving Yards & Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A massive question mark is hovering over this game with the health situation of Bills safety Damar Hamlin.
While a postponement has not been officially ruled out, the prevailing sentiment is that this game will go ahead as scheduled while the league waits to decide on the status of the Bills clash with the Bengals.
New England simply needs to win and they are in the postseason for the second straight season, however beating Buffalo in the last three years has been anything but easy.
Defensive mastermind Bill Belichick has had no answers for Josh Allen in recent meetings but this might be the best his defence has been playing heading into a Bills game.
New England should be able to use that defence to keep the game close but that offence cannot score 20 points on their own and Buffalo is too good to make the sort of mistakes that the Patriots have been relying on to stay in and win games.
With a line likely in the range of a touchdown, take New England to cover as Buffalo might not be interested in another blowout, rather picking up a win and getting back to some sense of normalcy.
Back New England to Cover the Line
If you are reading these previews in the order they are listed, you’ll know that the Dolphins will just need to beat the Jets and they will be in the playoffs.
However these final games have not been kind to the Dolphins in recent years and with rookie Skylar Thompson set to start at quarterback, it is not trending towards a favourable outcome.
The Jets will be kicking themselves for missing out on the playoffs (again) but they will happily take the opportunity to play spoiler for a division rival.
With their best quarterback Mike White set to start, the Jets are the better positioned team and
Back NY Jets to Cover +1 @ $1.90
Just like the other NFC South clash, this is a dead rubber for all intents and purposes with Tampa locked into the fourth seed and the Falcons jockeying for draft position.
Unlike other teams with nothing on the line however, Tampa Bay needs to go into this game acting like they have something to prove this week, with their offence desperately searching for direction before the games really matter.
Tom Brady sounds like he is itching to play and build on his 432 yard, three touchdown effort against the Panthers.
Chances are he will be withdrawn at some point in the game but not before he gets his necessary workload in and working on that basis, Tampa looks like a good value bet as underdogs.
SGM: Tampa Bay to Win and Over 40.5 Points @ $5.27
The early window closes out with Cincinnati and Baltimore facing off with the AFC North title on the line.
It has become a little bit more of a murky situation with Cincinnati a game back on Baltimore with the suspension of their Week 17 contest but the win and in situation for the Bengals is in place here.
Baltimore won a physical contest in Week 5 but Cincinnati has made significant progress since then, and were the form team in the AFC before last week’s suspension.
Assuming the Bengals are able to refocus by the time this game kicks off (which is no sure thing), they are the bet to come out and win this game over a Baltimore team that is offensively limited.
Back Cincinnati to Cover -7 @ $1.87
Moving on to the late window of games, San Francisco will kick off with an outside chance of claiming the NFC’s top seed.
First things first, they will need to take care of business against an Arizona side that has lost eight of its last nine and six in a row.
The last time the Cardinals broke 20 points was in Week 12 and there’s little to no reason to expect them to do anything other than get off the busses for this game.
San Francisco got a bit of a wake up call last week getting pushed to overtime by Las Vegas and Kyle Shanahan will want to use that as motivation to correct some errors in this game.
It’s all pointing towards a big win for San Francisco as they look to roll into the playoffs on the back of a big win.
Back San Francisco to Cover -14 @ $1.90
Washington’s season is done after last week’s loss, which means rookie Sam Howell will become the team’s third starting quarterback for the season as they want to take a look at him.
Dallas still can steal the division with a win and an Eagles loss, as well as homefield advantage with a 49ers loss on top of that, however that last part is the least likely scenario of them all.
It’s a case of how much will Dallas win this one by, and with Washington probably packed for their end of season trips already, this could get ugly early.
Back Dallas to Cover -7 @ $1.90
It seems like this market has been priced up under the assumption the Chargers will not go all out and look to protect some of their stars.
However when this game kicks off there is a chance they need to win to lock up the AFC’s fifth seed and recent reports suggest that the starters will have some sort of role to play against Denver.
Some might sit out if they are under an injury cloud but even so, Denver is a bad team and the Chargers should be able to knock them off even if they don’t play all four quarters.
Back LA Chargers to Win @ $2.10
The good news for the Rams is that their historically bad Super Bowl title defence is over and done with, the bad news is that another loss will secure a top five draft pick for Detroit.
Seattle heads into the game at a slight disadvantage knowing they can win in this window but still get knocked out with a Green Bay victory on Sunday Night Football.
What makes it tough to back the Seahawks here though, is the fact they have gone 2-5 in their last seven games.
Seattle to cover looks like the way to go but it does come with a bit of trepidation, until you remember just how bad the Rams have been lately.
Back Seattle to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
Giants coach Brian Daboll faces a big dilemma heading into this game, does he play his starters or does he rest them ahead of Wild Card Weekend.
With the team locked into the sixth seed, he can roll out his key players and see where they stack up against a desperate Eagles team just like Tom Coughlan did in 2007.
Unlike 2007, the 2022 Eagles are not chasing a perfect season and there is a big unknown over the status of their MVP candidate quarterback Jalen Hurts.
He has returned to practice which points towards him playing in this game and his return could not come at a better time with the team struggling in his absence.
If they win here, they have Wild Card Weekend off and can give themselves the easiest possible path to the Super Bowl.
While they might win, Philadelphia is going to be a bit rusty and with a depleted offensive line, it’s tough to see this game being the blowout the market is forecasting.
Back NY Giants to Cover +14 @ $1.90
The dream scenario for the NFL is for Seattle to lose their game and allow their final contest of Week 18 to be a winner takes all scenario.
As it stands, Green Bay just needs to win to get into the playoffs while Detroit needs the Seahawks to lose and then win this game.
However one thing that we can say in favour of the Lions is that even if this game is meaningless from their perspective, coach Dan Campbell will still treat this like it is their Super Bowl so we should be in for a highly entertaining game.
Green Bay has won its last four to be in playoff contention and Aaron Rodgers looks rejuvenated, but he won’t have it handed to him.
Detroit will turn this game into a shootout but in a situation like this, you cannot back against the veteran gunslinger in Rodgers.
SGM: Green Bay to Win and Over 49 Points @ $2.65
2021
For just the second time in its history, the NFL will play a Week 18 in its regular season and every team will play a 17th game for the first time.
The only other time there was a Week 18 in the regular season came in 1993 when the league trialled 16 games and two byes for every team.
Two playoff spots are up for grabs in the AFC with the Colts, Chargers, Steelers, Ravens and Raiders still in the hunt for the remaining Wild Cards with the Chargers and Raiders facing off in a win and in game.
Over in the NFC there is one spot on the line with San Francisco and New Orleans still in the mix while every other team bar Green Bay will be jockeying for seeding.
With Covid, injuries and players checking out early, Week 18 promises plenty of drama across the board and we have our previews and best bets below.
Currently in possession of the AFC’s second seed, the Kansas City Chiefs will be forced to go close to all out in this game against the Broncos.
After a last second loss in Cincinnati in Week 17, they lost out on the first round bye but can claim it back with a win here and a Titans loss in Houston (however unlikely that is).
Denver is ready for the offseason and are already in the process of preparing for the 2022 campaign and while they would surely love to play spoiler, they just don’t have the horses to match Kansas City point for point.
The Chiefs have scored 30 points in each of their last four games since defeating Denver 22-9 and there is no reason to think Denver will slow them down.
Look for the Chiefs to get out of the gate early and lock up at least the second seed while also allowing their stars a bit of rest in the third and fourth quarters.
Back Kansas City to Cover -10 and Over 44.5 Points @ $3.60
Admittedly it was a bit of a surprise to see this game given primetime billing considering the Eagles will be the sixth or seventh seed while Dallas is all but certain to wind up as the NFC’s fourth ranked team.
Philadelphia might have some question marks on its overall talent level but the results speak for themselves and a 7-2 record since Week 8 says it all.
In a game that had equal meaning for both sides Dallas would be the way to go however with star rookie Micah Parsons landing on the Covid list and the team perhaps keeping one eye on a likely Wild Card rematch with Arizona, they may opt to pull some punches here.
It will not be an ideal build up for the Eagles with a dozen key starters and role players landing on the Covid list however with the reduced time before they can return to play, you would expect most of them to be ready to take to the field.
While this pick does require a bit of speculation, I like the Eagles at their current price and will back them outright to take care of Dallas’ backups.
Back Philadelphia to Win @ $3.25
The winner of this AFC North bout will have a chance at sneaking into the playoffs if Indianapolis manages an all time choke and loses to Jacksonville (and the Chargers lose for Baltimore).
It will also be the final NFL game of Ben Roethlisberger’s career if the broadcast of last week’s game against the Browns was anything to go by.
By all accounts Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson once again as he is yet to practice for the Ravens at the time of writing.
With this game likely boiling down to a dead rubber if the Colts get out to an early lead in Jacksonville, there are plenty of reasons to consider this a stay away but I’ll back the Steelers to send Big Ben out as a winner.
Back Pittsburgh to Win @ $2.75
Both teams would probably be more than happy if the NFL decided that this game did not need to go ahead.
Cleveland has had a season from hell and will be going into this game severaly undermanned due to injuries and Covid.
Cincinnati has won the division and will be resting Joe Burrow while several key players, headlined by running back Joe Mixon, are on the Covid list and will miss the game.
Even with one of the lowest totals of the week, I still like the under given both offences look severely limited.
Back Under 38 Points @ $1.90
Green Bay has nothing to gain from this game while Detroit has everything to lose with a victory.
The Packers are the NFC’s top seed and while Matt LaFleur has emphasised his intention to go to the Motor City and come away with a win, it seems like a stretch to expect four quarters from Aaron Rodgers and company.
Detroit will continue to battle under Dan Campbell and could run over the top of the Packers backups.
However with so much up in the air, this is going to be a stay away.
NO BET
The back to back AFC South Champions will make the trip to Houston needing a win to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
For that reason and that reason alone, they will be ready to go all out against a Houston side that they are much, much better than.
The first meeting in Tennessee saw the Texans stun the Titans 22-13 on the back of five Titans turnovers and you can bank on Mike Vrabel hammering his team about that this weekend.
Back the Titans to be ready to roll come kickoff and go into the playoffs on the back of a convincing win.
Back Tennessee to Cover -10.5 & Over 43.5 Points @ $3.70
Hands down the easiest game of the weekend to pick, Jacksonville gave up weeks ago and will lock up the first overall pick with a loss here.
Indianapolis still needs to win to secure a postseason berth and they will encounter minimal resistance from the Jaguars here.
Whatever the line gets to, take the Colts.
Back Indianapolis Colts to Cover -15.5 @ $1.90
Just before Christmas these teams played out a dire 17-9 Vikings win in Chicago and now comes time for the rematch in Minnesota.
Kirk Cousins will return to the lineup after missing their loss to Green Bay and the efforts of Sean Mannion and Kellen Mond in that game made sure there was no pressure on his starting job.
There is a decent chance that this will be the final game for both head coaches and the potential for a game between two teams ready for a change is high.
Chicago had planned to turn to Justin Fields before the rookie wound up on the Covid list, meaning it will be Andy Dalton once again and if he can just avoid any major mistakes, they’ll be fine.
Points will be at a premium here but Chicago is a decent upset chance with the Vikings looking more likely to give up and roll over.
SGM: Chicago to Win and Under 44.5 Points @ $4.10
New York has become one of the biggest disasters in the NFL with a roster devoid of difference makers and a head coach unravelling more and more with every press conference.
Last week was the low point (so far) with an utterly inept performance against a Bears team that is hardly a playoff contender.
Washington does not strike fear into anyone in their current form but if anyone can make them look like a Super Bowl favourite, it’s the Giants.
Back Washington to Win by 14+ @ $3.00
There is only one option for the Cardinals and it is to take care of business at home against the Seahawks and hope that the Rams get upset by the 49ers to hand them the NFC West title.
State Farm Stadium has not been a happy hunting ground for the Cardinals for this season, they have lost their last four games there and have covered the line just twice from seven games.
With a number of injury clouds over some key players including both running backs, the Cardinals should be able to get the job done but it might not be as easy as they would like it to be.
Back Arizona to Win by 1-13 @ $2.40
There is a narrow but certainly achievable path to the playoffs for the Saints this week and it will all revolve around how successful their defence is.
First things first, the Saints need to get a win in Atlanta and then hope that the 49ers lose to the LA Rams.
Atlanta won the first meeting between these teams 27-25 on a last second field goal in what was Trevor Siemian’s first start of the year.
We’ve got two limited offences in this game and while New Orleans would be the tip in a “pick the winner” contest, the better value is on the under.
Back Under 40 Points @ $1.90
Despite being well and truly out of the playoffs, the Jets to their credit have been showing a bit of fight in the last few weeks.
They have lost by seven to the Dolphins, beat the Jaguars and pushed Tampa right to the end before losing by four.
Nobody is going to expect them to upset the Bills here, but there is every chance that they will give them a real test before going on holidays, especially if the weather is less than pleasant.
Buffalo just needs to win and should be able to generate enough points to get them home, but the Jets will want to end their season with a good performance, and I’ll back them to cover.
Back New York to Cover +16.5 and Over 41.5 Points @ $3.45
New England will still have something to play for in this game, even if the Bills are able to take care of business against the Jets and take the division out of play for the Patriots.
Should the Patriots win the game, they will hold onto the AFC’s fifth seed and that is why Belichick will play his starters at least for the majority of this game.
How much resistance they will encounter boils down to what Miami wants to do here, they would love to be able to play spoiler for New England and Brian Flores will be desperate to complete the season sweep over his former boss.
But this game just means more for New England and for that reason I’ll back them to win and cover.
Back New England to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90
It’s fair to say that the last seven days in Tampa Bay have been somewhat dramatic with the Antonio Brown situation dominating the headlines.
Even with the player now released and several other players missing with injury, Tampa is still far and away the better team.
The only way Carolina keeps this one close is if Bruce Arians decides to rest Tom Brady and start Blaine Gabbert.
As long as Brady and the rest of the healthy starters play a decent number of snaps, take Tampa to win by a lot.
Back Tampa Bay to Win by 14+ @ $2.60
In a busy slate of games kicking off at 8:25 (AEDT), this is the one you will want to pay the most attention to.
Both teams have plenty to play for and will have two other games paying attention to how this will unfold.
LA is riding a five game winning streak and has shown an ability to get wins even when they are not playing near their best.