2019 NRL Round 10 Preview

Facebooktwittermail

The dust has settled from a dazzling Magic Round and we’re still no closer to learning who might be headed to the finals.

There are only six points separating first from eighth, and just four points separating eighth from 16th on the NRL ladder.

This week, we turn our attention towards a Friday night blockbuster between the Broncos and the Roosters followed by a Saturday night thriller between the second place Rabbitohs and the fourth-place Raiders.

Picking winners continues to prove difficult in this topsy-turvy season, but we’re confident we’ve found some value in our 2019 Round 10 Preview below.

Melbourne Storm Vs Wests Tigers

Thursday May 16, 7:50pm, AAMI Park

The Storm don’t lose back-to-back games very often, and as the Eels found out the hard way last week, Melbourne is still the premier side to beat in this year’s competition.

Melbourne’s 64-10 whitewash over Parramatta put the entire league on notice, and as they now head home to face the Tigers on Thursday night, it’s safe to say Wests coach Michael Maguire has a mammoth job ahead of him.

To their credit, the Tigers were also impressive at Suncorp disposing of the Panthers 30-4. Wests were all over the Panthers in the opening ten minutes, picking apart Penrith’s sloppy backline to score five unanswered tries.

Suncorp has become a stomping ground for the Tigers of late, and surprisingly enough, they haven’t fared too poorly at AAMI Park. The Tigers took care of the Storm in a 10-8 win in Round 2 last year, and if Maguire’s side can rely on the same kind of spark from Benji Marshall and Moses Mbye that we saw last week, there’s every chance Wests can keep this close.

Of course, as we’ve seen all year, consistent performances from the Tigers are far and few between. Wests struggled with the Roosters a fortnight ago, largely due to their inability to stop Sydney’s electrifying wingers.

The Storm possesses a similar calibre of talent, and while the Tigers can be dangerous around the goal line, Melbourne only needs to stretch the defence wide to pile on the points. Considering the Storm are yet to win a game at home by more than 10-points this season, it’s still worth backing this one to be close.

Tip: Back the Storm 1-12 @ $3.00

NRL Same Game Multi

Penrith Panthers Vs New Zealand Warriors

Friday May 17, 6:00pm, Panthers Stadium

It’s hard to win games of footy when you can’t get your hands on the ball, and it’s even more difficult when you miss 41 tackles.

That was the case last week for the Panthers in their 30-4 blowout to the Tigers. Penrith now finds themselves second last on the ladder above the Bulldogs, but the good news is this week’s game presents as an opportunity for Ivan Cleary’s side to turn their luck around.

The Warriors are just as miserable having won only three of their nine games. Last week’s 26-18 win over the Dragons was a stark reminder of how dangerous this team can be though, and if recent history is anything to go by, the scoreboard could be in for a bit of a workout.

These two sides met three times last season, two of which were won by the Panthers. The pair combined for an average score of 43-points across all three meetings, and despite their no-show last week against the Tigers, Penrith tend to turn up at Panthers Stadium.

Perhaps the most impressive part of last week’s Warriors win was their ability to weather the storm. It’s something we haven’t seen much from Stephen Kearney’s side this year, but after falling behind 10-0 after allowing a pair of highlight reel tries, the Warriors fought back strongly in the second half thanks to some Peta Hiku brilliance.

The Warriors are the underdog this week, but as we’ve seen over the last 18 months, New Zealand often saves their best for games on the road. The Warriors are 5-2 as the away underdog at the line over the last 12 months, but with their long history of high-scoring games, the Over looks to be the safer bet.

Tip: Over 39.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88

NRL Same Game Multi

Brisbane Broncos Vs Sydney Roosters

Friday May 17, 7:55pm, Suncorp Stadium

Things looked grim for the Broncos last week, at least up until the second half. Suddenly Anthony Seibold’s side switched things up a gear, and with it came a much-needed 26-10 win over Manly.

The Roosters got off to their usual fast start against the Raiders, but things got a little nervy as superstar fullback Latrell Mitchell left the field with a groin problem. The good news is last year’s Origin star has been cleared of any serious injury, but his loss was certainly felt on the field as the Raiders made a late run to score three unanswered tries.

The importance of this game can’t be stressed enough. Only four points separate fifth from 13th on the ladder, while a win could easily put the Broncos right back on the fringe of the eight.

As for the Roosters, the ladder leaders could easily distance themselves from the second place Rabbitohs this week, and if they can pile on the points like they did against the Broncos back in Round 4, this one could get ugly.

Seibold will take a lot away from that early season loss, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out what the Broncos must do to win this game. A fast start is key against a potent attacking side like the Roosters, but after failing to fire in the opening 20 minutes last week, Brisbane’s inability to play a full 80-minutes should cost them yet again.

Sydney, meanwhile, needs to focus on the small things. This fixture has always caused a few headaches, but the Roosters have still managed to win three of the last five meetings.

Sydney are 6-3 as the line favourite over the last 12 months, so take advantage of the generous spread.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi

Gold Coast Titans Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Saturday May 18, 3:00pm, CBus Super Stadium

The Titans turned up for a fight last week against the Sharks only for some sloppy second-half defence to let them down.

Gold Coast piled on three tries in the first half to put Cronulla on edge, but the Sharks fought back behind Aaron Gray and Paul Gallen to walk away with a 26-18 victory.

Canterbury was the opposite last week against the Knights, capping off a scoreless first half with two consolation tries in the second to lose 22-10. The Bulldogs have now managed just 20-points over their last two games, making this cellar dweller clash even more interesting as the wooden spoon race heats up.

These two sides met only once last year in a 32-10 Titans victory in Sydney. The Dogs have won two of their four trips to CBUS Stadium, and despite their position on the ladder, there are a few stats worth noting if you wish to back a Dogs upset.

Dean Pay’s side is well short of attacking options, but did you know the Dogs lead the league in set completion? They are also top of the competition in offloads and tackles, which spells bad news for a Titans side holding a mediocre 1-1 record as the home favourite over the last 12 months.

The Bulldogs do rank bottom of the league in points scored, but the addition of Kieran Foran back into the side last week certainly helped the rest of Canterbury’s halves. With a 6-5 record as the line underdog on the road, back the Dogs to get the job done.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Paramatta Eels

Saturday May 18, 5:30pm, 1300Smiles Stadium

The Cowboys had a fighting chance last week against the Rabbitohs after scoring two crucial tries right before the half. In the end, the class of Damien Cook and Sam Burgess overwhelmed North Queensland in the 32-16 loss.

Head coach Paul Green can take plenty away from the result, and the same has to be said for the Eels following last week’s 64-10 demolition at the hands of the Storm. Parramatta looked slow and sluggish at Suncorp as they battled for possession, while a whopping 51 missed tackles cost the Eels any chance at keeping the game close.

A second-straight loss this week would be enough to send the Eels outside the eight. A win for the Cowboys, who sit just four points behind the Eels on the ladder, could see them inch closer to the top half of the table.

These two sides split their series one win apiece last year, but it was the Cowboys who came away with the last laugh securing a 44-6 win in the second last round of the season.

Neither side will read too much into last season’s affair, but it’s worth noting the Eels have managed only one win from their last four trips to North Queensland.

There’s also no doubting the Cowboys chances in this game. The forward line showed some real signs of improvement last week with a pair of gutsy tries before the break, and if North Queensland can play with a similar chip on its shoulder, the Eels might just add another loss to their 2-3 record on the road this year.

Tip: Back North Queensland To Win @ $1.70

NRL Same Game Multi

Canberra Raiders Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Saturday May 18, 7:35pm, GIO Stadium

This could be a potential finals preview between two top four sides.

The Rabbitohs survived a scare last week against the Cowboys to win 32-16. It was the Damien Cook show as the star hooker carved up North Queensland down the middle, while the defence stepped up in a big way after losing the possession battle.

Things weren’t quite so peachy for the Raiders on Sunday losing a close one to the Roosters. To their credit, Canberra battled on strongly in the second half to score three unanswered tries, but the damage had already been done in the opening term by injured fullback Latrell Mitchell.

Points should come easily in this contest considering both sides rank Top 5 in points, tries and possession. Recent history also suggests the scoreboard could be in for a workout with the last three meetings resulting in well over 30-points.

The Raiders have surprisingly won four of their last five meetings against the Rabbitohs, but even with home-field advantage, the Over is probably the safest play here.

Tip: Over 20.5 1st Half Total Points @ $1.91

NRL Same Game Multi

St George-Illawarra Dragons Vs Newcastle Knights

Sunday May 19, 2:00pm, Glen Willow Stadium, Mudgee

The Dragons were all over the Warriors last week at Suncorp scoring two tries inside the first 10-minutes to grab an early 10-0 lead.

Things went south very quickly though as the Warriors fought back to hold Paul McGregor’s side scoreless in the second half, sending the Dragons to 10th on the ladder behind the very same Knights side they’ll face this weekend.

Newcastle have quietly been checking all the boxes over the last month – particularly in the win column. The Knights have strung together three-straight on the trot, and if they can pull off a huge upset on the road this week, Newcastle can likely rejoin the Top 8 with their season back on track.

Unfortunately, the Knights have seen very little success on the road against St. George over the last decade, while they’ve also won just one of the last five meetings.

On the plus side, the Dragons do look a little over the odds at this price. St. George are 5-2 as the home favourite against the Knights, and if they put last week’s second-half disappearance behind them, it’s worth trusting the Dragons’ kicking game to get the job done with a strong home-field advantage.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Win @ $1.70

NRL Same Game Multi

Cronulla Sharks Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Sunday May 19, 4:05pm, Western Sydney Stadium

Paul Gallen is doing alright for a 37-year-old.

The Sharks’ second rower put the team on his back last week scoring a crucial 79th minute try to ice a 26-18 win over the Titans at Suncorp.

There was no such luck for Manly, however, as the injury bug once again stung Des Hasler’s side with the loss of Toafofoa Sipley to a knee injury.

The Sea Eagles have fought gallantly without the likes of Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry Evans over the last month, but the injury toll might finally be catching up. Manly struggled to contain the Broncos’ forward line last week, and despite owning two-straight wins over the Sharks, nothing will come easy against Cronulla’s defence.

Home-field advantage has played a big part in Cronulla’s season so far. The Sharks have lost just one of their four games at Shark Park, but Manly will enter this game with confidence knowing they’ve won four of the last five meetings.

Still, the Sharks have recovered from their early-season offensive woes to keep teams guessing. Cronulla leads the league in decoy runs and rank second in offloads, two problem areas that arose during Manly’s loss to Brisbane last week.

You can’t take the Sharks head-to-head at this price, but there’s some value to be found in the margin market considering they’ve won 12 games by 1-12 points over the last 12 months.

Tip: Back the Sharks 1-12 @ $3.00

NRL Same Game Multi


2018

The Suncorp Stadium double-header has become a staple of the NRL calendar and we are set for a feast of football on Saturday night.

The Gold Coast Titans stunned the Melbourne Storm in this fixture last year and they are a massive price to do the same this weekend, while the Brisbane Broncos are expected to account for the struggling Manly Sea Eagles.

There are a host of other big games this weekend and we have selections for every single one of them – our complete 2018 NRL Round 10 tips can be found below.

Wests Tigers Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Thursday 10 May, 7:50pm, Leichhardt Oval

This is one of the most interesting fixtures of the weekend.

The North Queensland Cowboys returned to winning form with an impressive display against the Penrith Panthers, but they have since been distracted by the off-field incident involving veteran prop Scott Bolton.

Another issue for the Cowboys is their disastrous record at Leichhardt Oval – they have won only one of their nine games at the venue and amazingly Johnathan Thurston has never won a game at the ground.

North Queensland will still go into this clash as favourites and they have won three of their past four games as away favourites, while they have covered the line in each of these wins.

The wheels have fallen off the Wests Tigers bus in the past three weeks and they head into this clash on the back of a heavy defeat at the hands of the New Zealand Warriors.

The Tigers have won three of their past nine games as home underdogs and they are 5-4 against the line in this scenario.

The betting play that does appeal in this clash is the Under in Total Points betting.

Backing the Under has been a profitable betting play in games involving either of these teams over the past 12 months and the Under has saluted in the past four games between these two sides.

Back Under 37.5 Points

Newcastle Knights Vs Penrith Panthers

Friday 11 May, 6:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

The Penrith Panthers have won their past four games against the Newcastle Knights and they will go into this clash as favourites.

Penrith were slow out of the gates against the North Queensland Cowboys and that cost them victory, but there was still a fair bit to like about the way they responded in the second half.

Winning away from home has been something of an issue for the Panthers and they have won only three of their past seven games as away favourites, while they are 2-5 against the line in this scenario.

Newcastle produced one of their worst performances of the season to go down to the South Sydney Rabbitohs and it was clear that they missed the composure offered by Mitchell Pearce.

The Knights have won three of their past eight games as home underdogs for a profit and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

I think that this will be a very close affair and the Knights are good value to cover the line with a start of 3.5 points.

Back Newcastle To Cover The Line (+3.5 Points)

Canterbury Bulldogs Vs Parramatta Eels

Friday 11 May, 7:55pm, ANZ Stadium

It has been a tough start to the season for both these sides.

The Parramatta Eels always managed to pull-off one of the comebacks of the season against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend and they will go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Parramatta have shown some signs of life over the past month and they have won eight of their past 11 games as favourites.

A cruel late penalty resigned the Canterbury Bulldogs to their third straight loss and they really are struggling to close out games this season.

The Bulldogs have won six of their past 22 games as underdogs for a loss and they are 10-12 when giving away a start.

Parramatta have definitely improved after their slow start to the season and they should prove too strong for the Bulldogs.

Back Parramatta To Win @ $1.80

New Zealand Warriors Vs Sydney Roosters

Saturday 12 May, 3:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium

The New Zealand Warriors stamped themselves as the real deal when they beat the Sydney Roosters earlier this season and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

New Zealand bounced back from their heavy loss at the hands of the Melbourne Storm with a big win over the Wests Tigers and they have won their past four games against the Roosters.

The Warriors have won five of their past eight games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of those wins.

The Sydney Roosters may have beaten the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend, but their performance still left plenty to be desired.

They have lost their past four games as away underdogs and they are a middling 2-2 against the line in this scenario.

The Roosters middle defence has proven to be particularly soft in recent weeks and this is an area that the Warriors will be able to exploit.

 Back New Zealand To Cover The Line (-2.5 Points)

Melbourne Storm Vs Gold Coast Titans

Saturday 12 May, 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium

This is the first leg of the Suncorp Stadium double-header.

The Gold Coast Titans scored a stunning upset win over the Melbourne Storm in this fixture 12 months ago, but it is the Storm that will still start this clash as clear favourites.

Melbourne were no match for a rampant St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and they have only suffered back-to-back losses in three seasons.

The Storm have won 19 of their past 23 games as favourites and they are 14-9 against the line in this scenario.

Gold Coast have now lost four games on the trot and it doesn’t get any easier for them against the Storm.

They have won only two of their past 12 games as away underdogs and their record against the line isn’t much better.

Melbourne are a safe bet to return to winning form and it really wouldn’t surprise to see them put up a big score.

Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-14.5 Points)

Manly Sea Eagles Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday 12 May, 7:35pm, Suncorp Stadium

There is no coach in the NRL under more pressure than Trent Barrett.

The Manly Sea Eagles stormed out of the gates against the Sydney Roosters, but they were unable to play out the full 80 minutes and slumped to their fifth loss on the trot.

This is officially a Manly home-game, but they will obviously be at a disadvantage at Suncorp Stadium and they have won only two of their past six games as away underdogs, while they are a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

The Brisbane Broncos didn’t play well against Canterbury Bulldogs, but they still managed to come away with the two points and they have been able to find a way to win in recent weeks.

Brisbane have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are a middling 4-4 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the Broncos should win, but they won’t have things their own way.

Back Brisbane To Win By 1-12 @ $2.75

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Sunday 13 May, 2:00pm, ANZ Stadium

The St George Illawarra Dragons cemented themselves as premiership favourites with their big week over the Melbourne Storm last Sunday afternoon and they played some outstanding rugby league in the process.

The Dragons recorded a narrow win over the Rabbitohs just over a month ago and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.

Winning away from OKI Jubilee or WIN Stadium has been something of an issue for the Dragons and they have won only one of their past five games as away favourites.

South Sydney returned to winning form with an emphatic victory over the Newcastle Knights last weekend and they have won five of their past seven games.

The Rabbitohs have won two of their past four games as home underdogs for a clear profit and they are 3-1 against the line in this scenario.

South Sydney gave the Dragons a genuine scare when they met a month ago and I expect this clash to also be closer than the current betting market suggests.

Back South Sydney To Cover The Line (+6.5 Points)

Canberra Raiders Vs Cronulla Sharks

Sunday 13 May, 4:10pm, GIO Stadium

The Canberra Raiders have got themselves back into finals contention following their slow start to the year and they will start this clash with the Cronulla Sharks as clear favourites.

Canberra made it four wins from their past five games with a victory over the Gold Coast Titans and they played some excellent rugby league in the process.

The Raiders have won six of their past 11 games as home favourites for a loss and they are a poor 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

Amazingly, the away side has won the past nine games played between the Raiders and the Sharks and winning in Canberra hasn’t been an issue for Cronulla.

The Sharks have won three games in a row without playing particularly well, but they simply keep finding a way to win.

They have won four of their past five games as underdogs as well as six of their past ten games away from home.

There is not as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Sharks have an excellent chance to record an upset win.

Back Cronulla To Win @ $2.40


2017

The NRL is back after an exciting – if not controversial – representative weekend.

On-field matters will hopefully dominate the headlines this weekend and we are set for a number of exciting games spread right across the round, which is highlighted by the big double-header at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday involving the Melbourne Storm, Gold Coast Titans, Manly Sea Eagles and Brisbane Broncos.

There are plenty of excellent NRL betting opportunities spread right across the weekend and you can find our complete NRL Round 10 tips below.

Canterbury Bulldogs Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Thursday 11 May, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium

Canterbury Bulldogs 14 - North Queensland 30

The North Queensland Cowboys will go into this clash without Johnathan Thurston and it should come as no surprise that the Canterbury Bulldogs will start this clash as favourites.

Canterbury went into the representative weekend on the back of a fighting victory over the Canberra Raiders and they have now won four of their past five games.

Their recent record against the Cowboys is poor – North Queensland have won the past four games played between these two sides – but the Bulldogs have won five of their past six games as home favourites for a clear profit.

Thurston suffered a shoulder injury during the Anzac Test against New Zealand and that is a huge blow for a Cowboys outfit that has struggled badly without their leader in the side.

North Queensland were awful in their most recent clash against the Parramatta Eels and they have won only one of their past five games as away underdogs.

Canterbury should really win this game, but there is no value at their current price and the real value lies in the Total Points betting market.

The Under has saluted in 18 of the past 27 games played by North Queensland and they really do struggle to score points without Thurston in the side, while the Under has been a profitable betting  play in Bulldogs games this season.

Back Under 38.5 Points

St George Dragons Vs Cronulla Sharks

Friday 12 May, 6:00pm, Jubilee Oval

St George Illawarra Dragons 14 - Cronulla Sharks 18

This is one of the most interesting editions of the Battle Of The Shire for some time as both teams currently sit inside the top four.

The Cronulla Sharks went into the representative weekend on the back of a win over the Wests Tigers and they have won five of their past six games in impressive fashion.

Cronulla’s overall record away from home has been positive this season, but they have won only four of their past seven games as home favourites and they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

The St George Illawarra Dragons have fallen off their perch at the top of the NRL ladder after suffering back-to-back defeats at the hands of the Sydney Roosters and the Melbourne Storm.

St George were able to beat Cronulla when they met earlier this season, but their record as home underdogs really does not inspire a great deal of confidence.

The Dragons have won only two of their past eight games as home underdogs and they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

This is another clash in which the best betting value lies with the Under.

Less than 35.5 points has been scored in six of the past eight games played between these two sides and the Under really does stand out.

Back Under 35.5 Points

Wests Tigers Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday 12 May, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium

Wests Tigers 8 - South Sydney Rabbitohs 28

It has not been a particularly happy start to the season for either the Wests Tigers or the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the market has struggled to split these two sides.

South Sydney went into the representative weekend on the back of a hiding at the hands of the Manly Sea Eagles, but they will still start this clash as favourites.

South Sydney have won only three of their past seven games as favourites and they really are a very tough side to trust from a betting perspective.

Wests started their season with a most impressive win over South Sydney, but they have struggled for consistency ever since.

There is no doubt that they have shown some improvement since Ivan Cleary took over as coach and they will take confidence from the fact that they have won their past four meetings with the Rabbitohs.

It is impossible to back South Sydney on the back of their last-start effort and the Wests Tigers really do offer genuine value at their current price.

Back Wests Tigers To Win @ $2

Penrith Panthers Vs New Zealand Warriors

Saturday 13 May, 3:00pm, Pepper Stadium

Penrith Panthers 36 - New Zealand Warriors 28

This is another game where the market has struggled to separate the two sides.

It has been a horror run for the Penrith Panthers and they have lost five games on the trot, but they will still go into this game with the New Zealand Warriors as narrow favourites.

The Panthers have proven to be incredibly difficult to trust from a betting standpoint so far this season and they are now 6-6 against the line as home favourites for a narrow loss.

New Zealand produced their best performance of the season to beat the Sydney Roosters, but as appears to be the case every season they still struggle for consistency.

Winning in Australia has proven to be particularly tough for the Warriors and they have won only one of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 4-4 against the line in this situation.

These are two teams that are incredibly tough to trust from a betting perspective and I am more than happy to stay out of this clash.

No Bet

Melbourne Storm Vs Gold Coast Titans

Saturday 13 May, 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium

Melbourne Storm 36 - Gold Coast Titans 38

This is the first game of the double-header at Suncorp Stadium.

The Melbourne Storm have elected to take their home game to Suncorp Stadium, but it really shouldn’t be an issue for the Storm and they will start this clash as clear favourites.

Melbourne have lost just the one game this season and they continue to be one of the most reliable betting teams in the NRL – they have won 20 of their past 24 games and they are 13-11 against the line when giving away a start.

The Gold Coast Titans have found a semblance of their best form following their slow start to the season and they go into this clash with Melbourne on the back of two wins over the Cronulla Sharks and the Newcastle Knights.

Gold Coast have won five of their past past 15 games as underdogs for a profit and they are a most impressive 9-6 against the line in this scenario.

Melbourne really should be able to come away with the victory, but there is no value at their current price and this is another clash that I am happy to stay out of from a betting standpoint.

No Bet

Manly Sea Eagles Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday 13 May, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium

Manly Sea Eagles 14 - Brisbane Broncos 24

This is technically a home game for the Manly Sea Eagles, but it is the Brisbane Broncos that will be playing in front of their rapid home fans at Suncorp Stadium.

Brisbane made it four wins on the trot with their impressive win over the Penrith Panthers and they will go into this clash as the punter’s elect.

The Broncos have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites for a narrow profit, but they are only 5-8 against the line in this scenario and have survived a couple of scares during their winning streak.

Manly went into the representative weekend on the back of an outstanding effort against the South Sydney Rabbitohs and they are definitely a side that has surpassed expectations so far this season.

They have won only three of their past nine games as away underdogs, but they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario and are clearly a side that the market continues to get wrong.

Manly are more than capable of giving Brisbane a scare this weekend and in a game that I expect to be very tight, I am keen to back them with a start of 3.5 points.

Back Manly To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)

Newcastle Knights Vs Canberra Raiders

Sunday 14 May, 2:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Knights 34 - Canberra Raiders 20

The Canberra Raiders are the shortest-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend and they really should be able to return to winning form against the Newcastle Knights.

Canberra went into the representative weekend on the back of two disappointing losses at the hands of the Manly Sea Eagles and the Canterbury Bulldogs and panic may set in if they lose again this weekend.

The Raiders have won five of their past six games as away favourites for a clear profit and more impressively they are 5-1 against the line in this scenario.

It has been two months since the Newcastle Knights won a game and they are showing signs of regressing after their positive start to the season.

The Knights have won just one of their past 13 games as away underdogs and they are an extremely poor 3-10 against the line in this scenario.

It would not surprise to see the Canberra Raiders return to winning form in emphatic fashion and they are a good bet to cover the line.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (-12.5 Points)

Sydney Roosters Vs Parramatta Eels

Sunday 14 May, 4:00pm, Allianz Stadium

Sydney Roosters 48 - Parramatta Eels 10

The Sydney Roosters have taken a step back following their positive start to the season, but they will still go into this clash with the Parramatta Eels as clear favourites.

Sydney missed out on a golden opportunity to make it three wins in a row when they went down to the New Zealand Warriors before the representative weekend and this is another potentially tricky clash.

The Roosters have won four of their past five games as home favourites, but they are only 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

Parramatta have bounced back from a very slow start to the year to record three wins in a row and they produced their best performance of the season to beat the North Queensland Cowboys in the final round before the representative weekend.

The Eels have proven to be a losing betting proposition as underdogs over the past 12 months – they have won only two of their past nine games as away underdogs – but they are 8-7 against the line when giving away a start.

Sydney really should be able to return to winning form, but there is no real value at their current price.

No Bet

 


2016

There is no NRL action this weekend due to the Anzac Test between Australia and New Zealand at Hunter Stadium on Friday night.

Round 10 of the 2016 NRL season is highlighted by a highly anticipated double header at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday.

The Melbourne Storm will take on the North Queensland Cowboys in the first game in a rematch of last year’s preliminary final before the Manly Sea Eagles do battle with the Brisbane Broncos.

Penrith have also elected to take a home game away from their regular venue and will host the New Zealand Warriors at AMI Stadium in Christchurch.

St George Dragons Vs Canberra Raiders

Thursday 12 May, 7:50pm, Jubilee Oval

St George Illawarra Dragons 16 - Canberra Raiders 12

The rivalry between St George and the Canberra Raiders has been one of the strangest in the NRL in recent seasons.

Before the start of the 2014 NRL season, the Raiders had won 15 of the past 16 games played between the two sides but the Dragons finally stopped the rot in 2014 and won their two meetings last season.

The Raiders went into the break for representative football on the back of a narrow loss to the Penrith Panthers and have won just one of their past four matches, but they will still start this game as clear favourites.

Canberra have struggled as favourites in the past 12 months and they are 6-1-7 in head to head betting as well as 5-9 against the line.

The Dragons had their winning streak snapped by the New Zealand Warriors, but they have shown some promising signs in the past month and they generally play well at Jubilee Oval.

This is shown by the fact that they have won three out of their past five games as away underdogs – compared to their overall record of 4-11 – and this doe make them an attractive bet at their current quote of $2.15

Recommended Bet: Back St George Illawarra Dragons To Win @ $2.15

Parramatta Eels Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday 13 May, 7:50pm, Pirtek Stadium

Parramatta Eels 20 - South Sydney Rabbitohs 22

This game has taken on a new dimension as it is the first time that the Eels will be in action since they were officially stripped of all of their competition points due to the salary cap scandal.

Despite this drama and the fact that the Eels will be without Kieran Foran, they will still start this game as dominant favourites and based on their performance against the Canterbury Bulldogs they will be tough to beat.

In saying that, the Eels have won just one of their past four games as home favourites and their recent record at Pirtek Stadium is a concern.

The Rabbitohs season hit a new low when they were beaten by Wests before the break for the representative weekend and they have now lost six of their past seven games.

There are clearly issues at South Sydney and the fact that they have won just one of their past eight games as underdogs does not give punters any confidence that they will be able to bounce back this weekend.

I am not keen to back either of these teams, but the under in the total points market really does stand out.

The under has saluted in nine of the past 12 games played at Pirtek Stadium, while the under is 9-1-4 in South Sydney games over the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet: Back The Under

Penrith Panthers Vs New Zealand Warriors

Saturday 14 May, 3:00pm, AMI Stadium

Penrith Panthers 30 - New Zealand Warriors 18

This is one of the most interesting games of the weekend as the Penrith Panthers and New Zealand Warriors have both been very inconsistent sides this weekend.

The Panthers scored a narrow last start win over the Raiders, but they are a very poor 1-7 on the back of a win in the past 12 months and their record as favourites over the same time period is a very poor 3-4.

The New Zealand Warriors arguably saved the job of coach Andrew McFadden with their gutsy victory over the Dragons and that could prove to be a turning point for the Warriors.

However, their record as away underdogs does not inspire confidence and they are a very poor 2-6 against the line in this scenario.

These are two teams that it is tough to back with any confidence at this stage of the season and I am happy to stay out of it from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Melbourne Storm Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Saturday 14 May, 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium

Melbourne Storm 15 - North Queensland Cowboys 14

This is the first game in a double header that will be played at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night.

The North Queensland Cowboys beat the Melbourne Storm in the preliminary final last year to secure a place in the Grand Final, but there has been very little between the two teams in recent seasons.

The Cowboys have been in simply outstanding form in recent weeks and they will start this game as clear favourites – a position in which they have proven extremely reliable in the past 12 months.

Melbourne have finally looked to click against both the New Zealand Warriors and the Gold Coast Titans, but they face a much tougher challenge against a Cowboys side that will not give up such easy points.

The Storm have won just three of their past ten games as underdogs and are 4-6 against the line in this scenario, while the Cowboys are 13-7 against the line as the punter’s elect.

North Queensland look to be a class above just about every other team in the NRL at this stage of the season and they should be able to cover the line of six points fairly comfortably.

Recommended Bet: Back The North Queensland Cowboys To Beat The Line (- 6 Points)

Manly Sea Eagles Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday 14 May, 7:30pm, Suncorp Stadium

Manly Sea Eagles 6 - Brisbane Broncos 30

This is the second leg of the highly anticipated double header.

The Broncos went into the representative weekend of the back of a loss to the Cronulla Sharks, but they are still dominant favourites to return to winning form against the Sea Eagles on Saturday.

Brisbane have won 11 out of their past 14 games as favourites at Suncorp Stadium and they are a most impressive 10-4 against the line in this scenario.

Manly were completely outclassed by the North Queensland Cowboys in their last game, but they still have a profitable 5-6 record as underdogs and are 6-1-4 against the line when being given a points start.

There is evidence to suggest that both of these teams are a good bet this weekend, but the market looks to have got this game just about right and the line of 12 is exactly how I would have it, so this is another game that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Newcastle Knights Vs Cronulla Sharks

Sunday 15 May, 2:00pm, Hunter Stadium

Newcastle Knights 0 - Cronulla Sharks 62

The Cronulla Sharks have now won six games on the trot and they go into this fixture as very short-priced favourites.

The Sharks are now into the third line of betting in our 2016 NRL Premiership betting market and if they are a serious premiership contenders they should prove far too strong for the Knights.

Cronulla are not only undefeated as away favourites this season, but they have beaten the line in all three of these fixtures and overall they are 18-8 against the line in the past 12 months.

The Knights went into the representative weekend on the back of a very heavy defeat at the hands of the Sydney Roosters and they have really struggled this season.

They have won just one of their past six games as home underdogs and they are only a middling 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

Newcastle have covered the line in just two of their past ten games when giving away a start of over 14 points and they should suffer another big defeat at the hands of Cronulla this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Beat The Line (-14.5 Points)

Wests Tigers Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Sunday 15 May, 4:00pm, ANZ Stadium

Wests Tigers 4 - Canterbury Bulldogs 36

The Wests Tigers have generally struggled against the Canterbury Bulldogs since they came into existence as a joint venture and they have won just two of the past nine games played between the two sides.

The Tigers scored their biggest win of the season to date to beat South Sydney and end a six game losing streak, but they will still start this game as heavy underdogs.

Wests have actually proven to be a profitable betting team as underdogs in the past 12 months and have won 6 of their past 18 games in this scenario, but they are 8-10 against the line when being given a start.

Canterbury have been a very inconsistent side during 2016 to date and punters that have backed them in each of their games as favourites in the past 12 months have not made a profit, while they are a very poor 6-11 against the line when giving away the start.

The Tigers are a very tough team to trust from a betting perspective, but they are capable of a strong performance on their day and I am happy to back them with a start of 10.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (+10.5 Points)

Gold Coast Titans Vs Sydney Roosters

Monday 16 May, 7:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium

A number of their returning stars made a big impact when the Sydney Roosters recorded a big victory over the Newcastle Knights and they will start this game against the Gold Coast Titans as clear favourites.

The Roosters looked like a completely different team than the one that made a truly awful start to the season and it is easy to see why there has been early support for the Bondi-based club.

Sydney have won four out of their past seven games as away favourites, but their record against the line as favourites is a profitable 10-7 when giving away a start.

The Titans have lost five games on the trot since their promising start to the season and their is some data to suggest that they can return to winning form as they have won three of their eight games as home underdogs for a narrow profit.

In saying that, the Titans are a side that simply lacks the upside of the Sydney Roosters and if the Roosters perform at anywhere near their best than the line of six points will not be anywhere near enough.

Recommended Bet: Back The Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (-6 Points)