2025 NRL Round 10 Preview

With another Magic Round extravaganza in the books, NRL Round 10 spreads back out across the eastern seaboard with a bevy of pivotal encounters.

The clear headliner is a 1 v 2 clash in the capital, but with the disruptive Origin period just around the corner every team will be desperate to collect the two points this weekend.

Magic Round losers Parramatta Eels and the Dolphins kick off Round 10 on Thursday at CommBank Stadium.

The struggling Eels had a Round 8 bye in the wake of their Mitch Moses-led victory over Wests Tigers, before going down to Cronulla 28-18 in Brisbane. Moses and Isaiah Iongi were again strong for the blue-and-golds, while Josh Addo-Carr scored a second straight double.

The Dolphins’ blistering three-match winning streak has given way to back-to-back losses to Canberra (40-28) and Sydney Roosters (36-26) – their two worst defensive efforts of the season as the Redcliffe-based outfit slips to a 3-6 record.

The Eels’ only change sees Matt Doorey replace Sam Tuivaiti on the bench. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are boosted by the return of Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Donoghoe from injury, but Jeremy Marshall-King has been ruled out.

The head-to-head is split after two clashes: the Dolphins romped to a 48-20 win on the Sunshine Coast in 2023, while Parramatta’s win in Darwin last year was a similarly emphatic 44-16.

The Dolphins haven’t won outside southeast Queensland since Round 15 last year. The Eels have won their last two at CommBank and should get up with Moses and Dylan Brown sizing up a leaky Dolphins defence.

Tip: Back the Eels to Win @ $1.73

SGM: EELS BY 1-12 / OVER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / JOSH ADDO-CARR ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $17.94

After breaking out of a slump in Brisbane, Newcastle Knights look to keep the momentum going against runaway wooden spoon favourites Gold Coast Titans.

The Knights’ five-game slide began with a dismal 26-6 road loss to the Titans. They scored just 30 points across their next four outings.

But Magic Round provided a circuit-breaker for the Knights, overwhelming Souths 30-4 with Fletcher Sharpe scoring a hat-trick, and the likes of Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best finding some room to move again. An improved, Jacob Saifiti-led engine-room effort was also crucial.

The Titans, meanwhile, are now on a five-game losing run of their own – conceding 30-plus points in each game. After leaking a half-century against the Cowboys in Round 8, they were overrun 38-18 by the Bulldogs in Brisbane. Beau Fermor scored a double in a rare bright spot.

The Knights are unchanged, while the Titans welcome Jojo Fifita and halfback Jayden Campbell back.

The Knights have won six straight against the Titans in Newcastle, with the last four victories (including last year’s 36-14 result) coming by margins of 20-plus points.

The Titans are in horrid form, but Campbell’s return offers a glimmer of hope. The playmaker can’t arrest the team’s defensive frailties, however, and with the shackles belatedly shaken off the Knights should run up a score here.

Tip: Back the Knights to Score Over 26.5 Points @ $1.90

SGM: KNIGHTS WIN / OVER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.28

Magic Round duds South Sydney Rabbitohs and Brisbane Broncos get an opportunity to regroup on Friday night.

Souths have followed up a spirited 4-1 start to the season with four straight losses. They barely fired a shot in a 30-4 defeat to out-of-sorts Newcastle, with Wayne Bennett blasting his side’s attitude.

The Broncos are still battling for consistency, with their Round 8 demolition of Canterbury surrounded by three disappointing losses – including a 32-8 defeat in Magic Round to struggling premiers Penrith after leading 8-0 early.

Latrell Mitchell returns at fullback for Souths and Jamie Humphreys is back in the No.7. Siliva Havili replaces injured hooker Peter Mamouzelos, Euan Aitken returns to the second-row with Isaiah Taas going to centre and Fletcher Myers coming in on the wing.

Tevita Tatola has been dropped from a reshuffled pack.

Ezra Mam will make his return to the field in NSW Cup, leaving Ben Hunt to partner Adam Reynolds. The Broncos’ only change sees Fletcher Baker replace Jaiyden Hunt.

The Broncos have won four of their last six against the Rabbitohs, but the honours were shared a home win apiece in 2024. Souths have won four of the last five clashes at Accor Stadium.

Bennett loves coaching against his former teams and went 4-1 against the Broncos during his previous stint with the Rabbitohs. Expect him to instil a siege mentality in his rejigged squad and Mitchell’s return to get the hosts much closer to a drought-breaking win than their $3.75 price suggests.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90

SGM: UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ADAM REYNOLDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $50.15

A mouth-watering top-of-the-table showdown awaits on Saturday afternoon with Canberra Raiders looking to join Canterbury Bulldogs in equal-first spot with a home victory. It’s the only fixture in Round 10 between Magic Round winners.

The Raiders have emerged as bona fide contenders courtesy of five straight wins, following up a comeback against the Dolphins from 20 points down with another revival to beat the Storm in golden point.

Trailing 14-0, the Raiders grafted their way back into the contest and levelled up with a stunning late solo try from Kaeo Weekes. A penalty goal in extra time gave them their first lead of the game – and a 22-20 victory.

The Bulldogs, whose 6-0 start was halted by a 42-18 beatdown from the Broncos in Round 8, bounced back in Magic Round with a 38-18 cruise against the battling Titans. NSW hopeful Jacob Kiraz bagged a hat-trick, while Connor Tracey and Stephen Crichton were also superb.

Suspension has hit the Bulldogs hard, with Jacob Preston now joining Josh Curran and Sitili Tupouniua on the sidelines.

On the bright side, Matt Burton returns from suspension to face the unchanged Raiders, with Bailey Hayward moving to the bench. Preston has copped a four-game ban, which will require an addition to the 17 named on Tuesday.

The Bulldogs halted a nine-game losing streak against the Raiders with a tense 22-18 victory at Belmore Oval late last season. They are searching for their first win in Canberra since 2015 but went close last year, edged out 24-20. Six of their last nine meetings were decided by four points or less.

The Raiders are 3-0 at GIO Stadium this season, including wins over high-profile sides Brisbane and Cronulla. They’ve been installed as $1.78 favourites with the Bulldogs still missing key personnel but this should go down to the wire with both teams eager to make a statement.

Tip: Under 45.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: RAIDERS WIN / 1ST HALF POINTS UNDER 22.5 / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SEBASTIAN KRIS @ $20.01

It’s been a tough couple of weeks for St George Illawarra Dragons, who are getting desperate for a win as they size up the surprise-packet, equal-second-placed Warriors in Wollongong.

The 3-5 Saints continue to prove as inscrutable as ever, rolling Melbourne and Manly but getting thrashed by the Roosters (46-18) on Anzac Day and losing to Wests Tigers (34-28) in Magic Round in their last two.

The Warriors have improved to 6-2, with their only loss from their last six games coming against the Storm on a sweltering Sunday at AAMI Park. After an authoritative win over Newcastle on Anzac Day, they held on 30-26 in a Magic Round thriller against North Queensland.

Luke Metcalf and Chanel Harris-Tavita were on fire as the Warriors powered to a 30-12 lead, before a gutsy defensive effort held off a surging Cowboys outfit. Erin Clark, Leka Halasima and Mitch Barnett were a massive part of the victory.

The Dragons have lost Emre Guler, replacing him with teenaged debutant Loko Pasifiki Tonga.

The Warriors get a big boost with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak returning on the wing for his first appearance of 2025. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is also among the reserves.

Rocco Berry is out (as is late Magic Round withdrawal Ali Leiataua, with Kurt Capewell named in the centres with Adam Pompey. Jacob Laban is back from concussion on the bench.

The Dragons have traditionally dominated this fixture and have only lost twice to the Warriors at WIN Stadium. But the Warriors have won seven of the last 11 encounters, with DWZ scoring four tries in a 48-18 win at this venue in 2023. The Saints won 30-12 at home in their only clash last season.

The Warriors’ high-discipline approach, dynamic pack and Metcalf’s growing confidence in the No.7 are a formidable combination. The Saints’ recent defensive showings make it hard to get behind them, regardless of the venue.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.95

SGM: WARRIORS -2.5 / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUKE METCALF ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.92

North Queensland Cowboys are coming off a nail-biting Magic Round defeat – and now face the prospect of hosting a rejuvenated Penrith Panthers outfit on Saturday night.

The Cowboys pulled off a 22-18 upset at CommBank Stadium in Round 5, holding the four-time premiers scoreless in the second half. It was part of a four-match winning streak that came to an end via a 30-26 Magic Round loss to the Warriors.

Caught on the back foot in the first half, the Cowboys will take heart from fighting from 18 points down to go within an ace of snatching victory. But they were worryingly exposed on the edges by the Warriors.

The Panthers are still on 3-6, but they have won two of their last three – bookending a loss to Manly with big wins over Sydney Roosters (40-12) and Brisbane (32-8).

The latter in Magic Round looked like the Penrith of 2020-24. Nathan Cleary was sublime in every facet, while Dylan Edwards was superb at the back.

The Cowboys have lost Reuben Cotter to suspension; Sam McIntyre comes in at lock and Thomas Mikaele joins the bench. The Panthers get Brian To’o, Mitch Kenny and Brad Schneider back, which sees Tom Jenkins go to the bench, and Trent Toelau, Luke Sommerton and Mavrik Geyer drop out.

This rivalry has been skewed in recent years by Origin absences and resting players from final-round dead-rubbers; nevertheless, the Cowboys can take plenty of confidence from winning four of their last six against the NRL’s preeminent force.

It’s too early to say the Panthers are back…but last week appeared to be the circuit-breaking performance the champs have been searching for. A big Team List Tuesday tips the scales further in the visitors’ favour.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.94

SGM: PANTHERS WIN / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / MURRAY TAULAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.40

After letting some big leads slip in recent weeks, premiership favourites Melbourne Storm are at an interesting juncture ahead of a home clash with a burgeoning Wests Tigers outfit on Sunday.

Either side of a 24-16 home win over Souths, the Storm blew 14-point advantages against the Dolphins – who thrashed them 42-22 – and in a golden point defeat to the Raiders, both at Suncorp Stadium.

They were well in control against Canberra, up 14-0 in the Magic Round wet, but ill-discipline proved costly in regulation and extra-time.

The Tigers have dug their way out of the hole the Lachlan Galvin controversy briefly left them in, banking back-to-back wins over the Sharks (20-18) in golden point and the Dragons (34-28) at Magic Round.

Jahream Bula was on fire at Suncorp Stadium, while Terrell May continues to press his NSW claims with consistently powerful performances up front. The Tigers led 26-10 at halftime before warding off a Saints rally.

Both sides rolls out the same 17 as last week with Harry Grant still sidelined for Melbourne.

Melbourne has won seven straight against Wests Tigers, with the last five coming by double-digit margins. The Tigers have a comparatively remarkable record at AAMI Park, however, winning two of six matches and never conceding more than 29 points.

The Storm are 4-0 at AAMI Park, however, and have not lost consecutive games since Round 3, 2023. The Tigers are unquestionably building, though, and provide very handy value with a 15.5-point start.

Tip: Back Under 51.5 Total Points @ $1.90

SGM: STORM WIN / TIGERS +15.5 / GRANT ANDERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHREAM BULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.96

The latest instalment of the Battle of the Beaches sees Manly Sea Eagles coming off the bye against a Cronulla side looking for their fourth win in five games. Both sides are part of a five-team logjam in equal-fifth.

It’s their second meeting in less than a month, after the Sharks held off the Sea Eagles 24-18 in Perth in Round 6. Dally M leader Will Kennedy was untouchable from fullback, ably supported by Braydon Trindall and Blayke Brailey. Daly Cherry-Evans was something of a lone hand in a beaten side.

Manly subsequently lost to the Dragons at home but broke out of a three-game slide with a 26-10 defeat of the Panthers at CommBank Stadium in Round 8.

Cronulla remain somewhat unconvincing but have won three of their last four, bouncing back from a frustrating golden point loss to the Tigers in Round 8 with a 28-18 victory over the Eels at Magic Round.

Nicho Hynes had his best game of the season, while Trindall and Kennedy were also strong.

Jason Saab and Jake Trbojevic are back on deck for Manly, while Cronulla’s only change sees Daniel Atkinson come onto the bench for Siosifa Talakai (concussion).

The Sharks have won their last three at 4 Pines Park, including a 40-20 thrashing in the final round of 2024.

This shapes as an ideal barometer for both sides, whose best in 2025 is top-four material and worst has been also-ran quality. The Sea Eagles have generally been much stronger at home this season but this one’s an out-and-out coin-flip.

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 10.5 Points @ $1.94

SGM: SHARKS +2.5 / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / RONALDO MULITALO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TOM TRBOJEVIC ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.45