The run home to the NRL finals begins in earnest in Round 21 with Origin out of the way
There’s a string of massive swing games, including Roosters-Sea Eagles and Broncos-Bulldogs blockbusters, virtual must-wins in the Dolphins-Titans derby and the Raiders’ clash with the Rabbitohs, a pivotal battle between the Cowboys and Sharks, and a big assignment for the Dragons
New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers
Friday July 26, 6:00pm, Go Media Stadium
The Warriors are in absolute must-win territory after a couple of agonising defeats – but they won’t receive a better opportunity to recalibrate than hosting the last-placed, under-strength Wests Tigers.
The Warriors followed up a brave golden point loss to the Bulldogs before the Round 19 bye with a 20-18 defeat in Canberra, hamstrung by a poor start that saw them trail 14-0 and errant goalkicking.
Injuries continue to eat into the Warriors’ playing stocks. Taine Tuaupiki and Adam Pompey have been added to the casualty ward, which sees Roger Tuivasa-Sheck start at fullback, Ed Kosi come in on the wing and Moala Graham-Taufa slot in at centre for his second NRL game.
The Tigers have conceded 180 points in losing their last four games, most recently a 42-28 defeat to Souths last Saturday in Gosford after trailing by just four points at halftime.
The Tigers get Api Koroisau and Isaiah Papali’i back but have lost Adam Doueihi, Aidan Sezer, David Klemmer and John Bateman.
The Warriors are on a six-match winning streak against the Tigers, though only one of those matches was decided by more than eight points. The high-flying Warriors were given a late-season fright in a 30-22 win in Hamilton last year.
The Tigers have travelled extremely poorly this year, however, and look desperately thin in several departments this week – most notably with teenagers Lachie Galvin and Latu Fainu steering a leaky ship in the halves.
The Warriors are a disappointing 3-1-3 at Mt Smart in 2024, but given what is at stake and the strength of their forward pack and bench, it would surprise if this was close.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-13.5) @ $1.90
SGM: WARRIORS BY 21-30 / OVER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / MOALA GRAHAM-TAUFA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $37.89
Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm
Friday July 26, 8:00pm, Commbank Stadium
Melbourne Storm look odds-on to consolidate their healthy competition lead on this Friday’s road trip, taking on an embattled Parramatta Eels side that has lost its linchpin for the season and has nothing to play for except avoiding the wooden spoon.
The 14-3 made one of their strongest statements of 2024 to date by subduing in-form fellow heavyweights Sydney Roosters 24-8.
On top of a supreme defensive display, unheralded fill-ins Grant Anderson and Jack Howarth kept the scoreboard ticking over.
The Eels are marking time until September, winning just one of their last 11 games. They haven’t conceded less than 20 points since Round 4 and went down 24-16 on the Gold Coast before last weekend’s bye.
Blues hero Mitchell Moses’ injury was merely another setback in a campaign brimming with them for the blue-and-golds.
Daejarn Asi remains in the No.7, while Bryce Cartwright and Shaun Lane will start with Joey Lussick and Makahesi Makatoa joining the Parramatta bench.
For Melbourne, Christian Welch and Nelson Asofa-Solomona return from injury for Alec MacDonald and the suspended Joe Chan.
The Storm snapped a remarkable four-match losing streak against the Eels by winning the teams’ last three matches – including a 46-12 drubbing in Round 22 last season and a 48-12 romp in Magic Round this year.
The Eels have only won two of their last six at their CommBank fortress, a run that’s included 16-point losses to the Broncos and Rabbitohs. The Storm are ranked only fifth defensively but have scored the second-most points in the NRL – which does not bode well for the threadbare home side.
Tip: Back the Storm to Score Over 34.5 Points @ $1.95
SGM: STORM BY 11-20 / OVER 53.5 TOTAL POINTS / NICK MEANEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $31.33
Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday July 27, 3:00pm, Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane Broncos are an unflattering 11th on the ladder and have won just one of their last seven games, but last weekend’s drought-breaking victory has reinvigorated their teetering title hopes ahead of a massive showdown against Canterbury.
The Broncos’ 30-14 defeat of Newcastle was more comprehensive than it looked on the scoreboard. Adam Reynolds’ return provided an instantly calming influence, with Reece Walsh producing his best game in months and the likes of Deine Mariner cashing in out wide.
Selwyn Cobbo (groin is back) at the expense of Corey Oates, while Blake Mozer comes onto the bench with Brendan Piakura out injured and Kobe Hetherington starting.
The sixth-placed Bulldogs are at a somewhat uncomfortable juncture despite winning five of their last seven. They were lucky to get past Cronulla and the injury-ravaged Warriors in golden point, before being edged out 20-18 in North Queensland last Sunday.
Canterbury’s defence remains the second-best in the league but they have scored more points than just four other teams and haven’t tallied more than 18 in their last four games.
The Bulldogs’ only change sees Lipoi Hopoi come onto the bench for Chris Patolo.
The Broncos are on a five-match winning run against the Bulldogs by an average margin of almost 19 points, including a 44-24 spree in their only clash last year – at Accor Stadium – despite the absence of Reece Walsh.
The Bulldogs’ last win over the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium was back in 2015.
A $3.25 underdog price understates the Bulldogs’ vast improvement defensively and they have only lost one game by more than six points since Round 2. But the Broncos look primed to snap a four-match home losing streak with their big-name gang back together in the key positions.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.95
SGM: BRONCOS WIN / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BLAKE WILSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.79
North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks
Saturday July 27, 5:30pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Another crunch game on Saturday with North Queensland eager to cement a place in the Top 8 and Cronulla still looking to dig its way out of a slide.
The Cowboys have won six of their last eight, bouncing back from a golden point loss to Manly before the Round 19 bye with a gritty 20-18 victory over the Bulldogs last Sunday. Heilum Luki bagged a double and Jaxon Purdue scored the decisive second half try for the Origin-weary outfit.
Young gun Purdue moves to the centres this week with Valentine Holmes going to the wing in the Cowboys’ only change.
The third-placed Sharks are coming off the bye, having demolished Wests Tigers 58-6 in their most recent outing after losing five of their previous six. The absence of Nicho Hynes didn’t worry the Sharks in the 10-try stroll, with wingers Ronaldo Mulitalo and Sione Katoa scoring five between them.
The Sharks have named debutant Liam Ison at fullback for the suspended Will Kennedy, while Siosifa Talakai is back from a ban on the interchange.
The Sharks have won 11 of their last 12 against the Cowboys – the only exception was the 2022 golden point qualifying final.
It’s been one-way traffic since then: Cronulla won 44-6 and 32-12 last season, and 42-6 in the Round 7 clash this season, with Mulitalo scoring five tries across those three games.
The Sharks are 4-0 interstate this season, while the Cowboys’ 4-4 home record includes a 30-point loss to the Warriors only last week. But there has been a genuine defensive improvement since that night, while the Sharks are up against it with spine stars Kennedy and Hynes on the sidelines.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win @ $1.75
SGM: COWBOYS BY 1-12 / UNDER 49.5 TOTAL POINTS / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / RONALDO MULITALO & VALENTINE HOLMES TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $46.41
Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles
Saturday July 27, 7:35pm, Allianz Stadium
A trio of Saturday blockbusters concludes with fifth-placed Manly Sea Eagles aiming to leapfrog fourth-placed Sydney Roosters.
The Sea Eagles have won three on the trot and are coming off dominant 44-6 and 38-8 home wins over the Knights and Titans, respectively, with Tom Trojbevic in vintage form.
Riding an impressive four-match winning streak into the Round 19 bye, the Roosters were forced to take stock after a tough 24-8 loss in Melbourne last weekend.
The Roosters are unchanged, while Manly have lost brilliant rookie Lehi Hopoate, which sees Tommy Talau go to the wing and Ben Trbojevic move to centre with Corey Waddell starting in the pack.
The Roosters’ record of 19 losses from their past 20 games against Penrith and Melbourne garnered plenty of attention in the Round 20 wash-up – a serious dent in their credentials. Manly beat both heavyweights this year, as well as carving out a 21-15 upset of the Tricolours at Brookvale in Round 2.
The Roosters have won their last four at the SCG/SFS against the Sea Eagles. But the Sea Eagles boast a 6-3 record between the clubs when Tom Trbojevic plays.
Both teams will be seeking a statement performance and Manly is being given too much latitude as a $2.80 outsider.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 51.5 TOTAL POINTS / TOMMY TALAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ANGUS CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.00
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers
Sunday July 28, 2:00pm, WIN Stadium
St George Illawarra is hanging in the Top 8 fight, but a very tough run home begins with a Wollongong showdown against Penrith.
The Dragons snapped a six-match losing run against the Panthers with a 22-10 win at Penrith in Round 13 with both teams significantly hampered by Origin absentees.
The Saints’ Origin trumps, Zac Lomax and Ben Hunt, both return, along with Raymond Faitala-Mariner. The Panthers welcome back four triumphant NSW players, but Dylan Edwards remains sidelined.
In a share of sixth spot but ninth on for-and-against, St George Illawarra scored a vital 30-26 win over fast-finishing Brisbane in Round 19 with Origin players out before getting its last bye last week.
Consistency remains the Dragons’ issue – a pair of two-match winning streaks are their best in runs in 2024 and they were trounced 42-12 by the Roosters in Round 18.
The Panthers are comfortably in second spot despite a highly disruptive rep program and the lengthy absence of Nathan Cleary. The champion halfback’s return after a 10-week layoff triggered a 28-26 golden point win over the Dolphins via his 43-metre field goal, after leading them from 26-12 down.
The Panthers’ last win in Wollongong was back in 2014, but a rested Origin contingent and Cleary instantly back in dominant form are set to provide a stinging reality check to the much-improved Saints.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-11.5) @ $1.90
SGM: PANTHERS BY 11-20 POINTS / OVER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / NATHAN CLEARY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ZAC LOMAX ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $29.91
Dolphins vs Gold Coast Titans
Sunday July 28, 4:05pm, Suncorp Stadium
The Dolphins and Titans have both had their full allotment of byes and will both view a win here as essential to their 2024 survival, despite being separated by six points and eight ladder positions.
The Dolphins have tumbled to seventh courtesy of five losses from their last seven games in a similar trend to their debut campaign. In another familiar tale, they have leaked 24-plus points in each of those seven games.
Last Sunday’s golden point loss to the under-strength Panthers was an excruciating missed chance, giving up a 14-point second-half lead.
The Titans’ stirring three-match winning streak came to an end with a 38-8 loss away to Manly, crumbling after a hot start. Even victories in all of their remaining seven games may not be enough to get them into the Top 8.
The Titans are one of only two clubs the Dolphins have a 100 percent record against, winning thrillers 28-26 (after trailing 26-0) and 23-21 (in golden point) last season, and 30-14 in Round 4 on the Gold Coast this year.
Both teams take unchanged line-ups into Sunday’s encounter. Most aspects point to a Dolphins win, but they are hard to back with confidence at present as a $1.48 favourite in a match that reeks of high-scoring shootout.
Tip: Back Over 53.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: DOLPHINS OVER 28.5 TOTAL POINTS / TITANS OVER 22.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DAVID FIFITA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $83.24
Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sunday July 28, 6:15pm, GIO Stadium
Yet another crunch encounter with the 10th-placed Canberra Raiders only one win behind sixth spot and the 12th-placed South Sydney Rabbitohs only two points further back.
After losing four straight games in dismal fashion in between their Round 14 and 19 byes, the Raiders survived a GIO Stadium rollercoaster last Friday to edge the Warriors 20-18.
The strike of Hudson Young helped Canberra to a 14-0 lead, while Jamal Fogarty’s return gave the Raiders a much steadier look in what was ultimately a cliff-hanger.
Souths have won six of their last seven to stay in the hunt, but they don’t quite look the same threat without Latrell Mitchell on deck – going down 36-28 to the Dolphins and belatedly seeing off the Tigers 42-28 in their two games since the superstar fullback broke down with injury.
The Raiders are unchanged, while the Rabbitohs’ only change sees Michael Chee-Kam replace Richie Kennar in the centres with Jacob Host joining the second-row.
Canberra has won eight of its last 11 and four of its last five against South Sydney. The Raiders took out the teams’ sole 2023 encounter 33-26 at Accor Stadium on the back of an Albert Hopoate hat-trick.
The Raiders’ shaky win last week arrested a four-game slide at home. The Rabbitohs are 1-5 outside NSW this year.
But Canberra has proved a wholly unreliable favourite and desperate Souths are worth getting behind as Jack Wighton makes his first trip back to the capital in a myrtle and cardinal jersey.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / UNDER 50.5 TOTAL POINTS / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KAEO WEEKES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $34.17
2023
The NRL Top 8 tension cranks up a notch in Round 21 courtesy of a host of pivotal encounters.
The weekend gets underway with a wooden spoon battle, but there’s two Friday night games between top-four hopefuls, while North Queensland’s clash with Parramatta shapes as the biggest match of the season for both teams.
Gold Coast and Sydney Roosters face off in a do-or-die showdown and Cronulla is desperate to bounce back against a Manly side that needs a win to stay in the NRL playoffs frame.
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers
Thursday July 20, 7:50pm, WIN Stadium
A tough one to get excited about as the NRL’s two most hapless battlers lock horns, but the result will have a major bearing on who gets lumped with the 2023 wooden spoon.
Wests Tigers’ brief mid-season resurgence included an 18-16 eclipse of the St George Illawarra in Magic Round – their fifth win from the last seven between the joint ventures.
They have met in Wollongong six times with the Tigers 4-2 ahead in the count, but the Dragons prevailed 12-6 there last season.
But the 3-14 Tigers are staring down the barrel of their second seven-match losing streak of the season.
After the horrors of their 74-0 loss to the Cowboys, they improved somewhat in defeats to the Sharks (36-12) and Knights (34-18) in the past fortnight.
Jahream Bula’s two-try display was a rare highlight in Newcastle, where the final scoreline arguably flattered the Tigers.
The 4-13 Dragons have conceded 136 points in losing their last three games, crashing heavily to the Warriors and Sharks.
Their Round 19 encounter with the Raiders was headed the same way at 18-0 down, but a Mikaele Ravalawa hat-trick spearheaded a revival in what was eventually a 36-26 loss.
The Dragons are boosted by the return of Ben Hunt, Tyrell Sloan and Jacob Liddle, while Jack Bird is also back from a rest. Dan Russell starts in the back-row with Ben Murdoch-Masila out.
David Nofoaluma (shoulder) returns on the Tigers’ wing, while Daine Laurie regains the No.6 jersey at Will Smith’s expense, Tallyn de Silva gets a bench spot with Jake Simpkin dropping out.
Both teams are riddled with issues, but the impetus provided by Hunt and the Wollongong crowd are reason enough to get behind the Saints, who are only $1.62 favourites.
Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $1.85
SGM: DRAGONS WIN / OVER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / MIKAELE RAVALAWA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / STARFORD TO’A ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.28
New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders
Friday July 21, 6:00pm, Go Media Stadium
The red-hot Warriors host Canberra just six weeks after they gate-crashed Jarrod Croker’s 300th game celebrations with a sizzling 36-14 victory in the capital.
If they repeat the dose, Andrew Webster’s charges will leapfrog the Raiders into fourth on the NRL ladder.
A titanic defensive display in the first half underpinned the Warriors’ Round 15 win, before piling on five tries in a sensational second-half blitz with Shaun Johnson at the forefront.
The Warriors have now won five of their last six games by margins of 22-plus, with a 28-6 loss to Souths in wet Auckland conditions the only blip.
Since then they’ve pumped an under-strength Parramatta away (46-10) and Cronulla at home (44-12).
It’s been difficult keeping a lid on expectations after their Johnson- and Addin Fonua-Blake-led thrashing of the Sharks.
Meanwhile, centre tyro Rocco Berry’s breakout game potentially adds another dimension to the Warriors’ burgeoning dark horse claims.
Marata Niukore (suspension) and Bunty Afoa (concussion) come back into the Warriors’ starting pack, with Bayley Sironen and – somewhat surprisingly – Josh Curran drop out of the 17.
Canberra’s run of 10 wins from their last 12 matches is impressive by any measure, but the jury remains out on the Raiders’ credentials given the manner of their wins and losses during that period.
All 10 wins were by 10 points or less; both losses were by 20-plus.
Bookended by byes, their three games since getting thumped by the Warriors consisted of nervy wins over the Roosters (20-18) and Titans (26-22), and a patchy defeat of the dismal Dragons (36-26).
They failed to go on with the job after building 18-0 leads in the former and latter.
The Raiders’ pack is bolstered by the return of Josh Papalii (hamstring), Corey Horsburgh (Origin) and Pasami Saulo (concussion).
Jack Wighton also reverts to five-eighth, with Matt Frawley, Peter Hola and Trey Mooney the players to drop out.
The Raiders have won three of their last four in New Zealand – most recently a 46-12 demolition of the Warriors at Mt Smart in 2019, the eight matches since have been shared four apiece.
Wet Mt Smart conditions have oddly proved an Achilles heel for the Warriors in 2023 – and there is some rain forecast for Friday.
The Warriors should have heeded the lessons of those losses to the Roosters and Rabbitohs, however, while their top-tier defence and ability to pile on quick points should be too much for a flighty Raiders outfit to handle, as it was on their home track last month.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Win and Under 43.5 Total Points @ $2.60
SGM: WARRIORS BY 1-12 / RAIDERS UNDER 16.5 POINTS / LUKE METCALF ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $54.62
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos
Friday July 21, 8:00pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
One of the biggest blockbusters of the season so far is magnified by the return of half an Origin team’s worth of talent from suspension and the casualty ward.
Souths have a glut of huge ins: Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham, Jai Arrow, Hame Sele and Jacob Host join Origin quartet Damien Cook, Cody Walker, Cameron Murray and Keaon Koloamatangi back in the side.
Second-placed Brisbane is similarly bolstered with marquee trio Reece Walsh, Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan returning.
Both coaches will be pleased to see the back of State of Origin. The Broncos navigated the rep period admirably, winning five of their last six matches.
After a shock loss to the Titans in Round 17 which cost Walsh a ban, they saw off the Dolphins 24-16 at The Gabba and the Bulldogs 44-24 on the road.
It’s been a rockier road for Souths, winning only two of their last seven games.
An authoritative 28-6 wet-weather win over the Warriors was a slump-buster inspired by Cody Walker, while a heavily depleted side lost 36-32 to the Bulldogs a week later ahead of their Round 20 bye.
Mitchell’s injury absence has arguably been more disruptive than anything Origin has thrown at the heavyweights, who have slipped to eighth on the ladder.
During a six-match winning streak, the Rabbitohs overwhelmed the Broncos 32-6 in Brisbane in Round 9 with Graham bagging a hat-trick and Mitchell a double.
It was Souths’ sixth win in nine games between the club, though the Broncos took out both clashes last season – including a 32-12 result at Accor Stadium with Selwyn Cobbo collecting a double.
The Rabbitohs have taken four games to the Sunshine Coast previously, averaging 39 points in winning all four against the Warriors and Dragons.
But the underdog Broncos can expect majority crowd support, while it may take the de facto hosts some time to regain their best with so many players returning from layoffs.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90
SGM: BRONCOS WIN / UNDER 45.5 POINTS / CODY WALKER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / EZRA MAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $42.01
Gold Coast Titans vs Sydney Roosters
Saturday July 22, 3:00pm, CBUS Super Stadium
With both teams in a share of 12th spot and four points outside the Top 8, Gold Coast’s home clash with the embattled Sydney Roosters looms as a non-negotiable must-win for both teams’ finals hopes.
The 7-10 Titans could so easily be nestled in the top half of the NRL ladder right now.
But since a stunning boilover win against the Broncos in caretaker Jim Lenihan’s first game in charge, they have gone down in agonising fashion in all three outings.
A late fight-back fell short in a 26-22 loss in Canberra, they let a 14-6 halftime lead slip in a 23-21 golden point loss to the Dolphins with four Origin players out, and they were edged 25-24 by Parramatta last Sunday after leading for most of the second half.
The Titans have been hit by a suspension to Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, which sees Isaac Liu move to prop and Erin Clark to lock. Origin fullback AJ Brimson is back, with Jayden Campbell reverting to his bench role. Joe Stimson (concussion) rejoins the 17.
The 7-10 Roosters have won just two of their last nine games – tight ones over the Bulldogs and Knights.
They have also dropped their last three: two-point nail-biters against Canberra and Manly, before a convincing 30-16 defeat at home to Melbourne last Saturday.
The Roosters’ attack is ranked second-last in the NRL with Luke Keary and Sandon Smith’s halves partnership still in its infancy and a host of big names performing well below their peak level.
James Tedesco’s return from a post-Origin rest forces a backline reshuffle at the Roosters, with Junior Pauga the player to drop out, Terrell May replaces the injured Naufahu Whyte on the bench.
The Roosters are on a nine-match winning streak against the Titans, including a 44-16 blowout in Mackay in their sole clash last season.
Fa’asuamaleaui’s absence is a big one and gives the stacked Roosters pack a leg up, but the effervescent Titans’ attacking strike is a test for any team and they average seven more points per game than the flailing visitors.
The Titans are a tempting underdog option, but the under is more enticing play with four of the Roosters’ last five games producing less than 40 points and the Titans’ last five going under the total line.
Tip: Back Under 47.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 12.5 POINTS / ROOSTERS UNDER 23.5 TOTAL POINTS / ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / NAT BUTCHER ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.03
Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday July 22, 5:30pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Newcastle Knights are clinging to a finals dream after putting a couple of battlers to the sword in the past fortnight, but they are $3.25 outsiders to keep the roll going at home against a heavyweight Melbourne Storm side that has dominated this rivalry in recent years.
The Knights have an 11-match losing streak against the Storm to overcome, with the last nine decided by double-digit margins.
Melbourne won 48-4 on the Gold Coast in 2021 and 50-2 in Newcastle in 2022 with Xavier Coates grabbing a hat-trick in the latter.
After winning just two of their previous nine games, the Knights have rallied to 10th spot – three points outside the Top 8 – with a 66-0 obliteration of the Bulldogs and a comfortable 34-18 defeat of the Tigers, their first back-to-back victories of 2023.
Kalyn Ponga has been in electrifying touch at fullback, while blockbusting centre Bradman Best has come of age and should only get better on the back of his memorable NSW Origin debut.
The third-placed Storm continue to cruise along under the radar.
Though a 34-16 loss to the Panthers at home in Round 18 prior to their last bye was jarring, they have won four of their last five and are accounting for all the teams they should.
Coates crossed for a brilliant hat-trick in Saturday’s 30-16 defeat of the Roosters at the SCG, a result that was more convincing than the scoreline suggests.
Newcastle’s only change sees Dane Gagai return for Enari Tuala – a switch that was originally slated for last week before the veteran withdrew. The Storm’s 17 is unchanged.
Interestingly, four of the Storm’s six losses this season were to teams outside the current Top 8.
The Knights have lost their last six to the teams currently above them, but only three of their nine losses in 2023 were by more than eight points.
The visitors should find a way to the two competition points, but the Knights have picked up some elusive momentum and are 4-3 at home with two losses by two points or less – evidence enough to consider backing them with a juicy start.
Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (+8.5) @ $1.90
SGM: STORM BY 1-12 / UNDER 45.5 TOTAL POINTS / DOMINIC YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / NICK MEANEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $26.82
North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels
Saturday July 22, 7:35pm, Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Arguably the biggest crunch game in a round brimming with them, with North Queensland and Parramatta among three teams tied for seventh spot on the table.
The Cowboys were widely written off following a horrific 66-18 loss to the Tigers.
But since a spirited response in a 24-16 loss at Parramatta a week later, they have gone 5-0 with upsets of the Storm, Panthers and Rabbitohs, a 74-0 revenge rout of the Tigers and a 19-8 defeat of the Sea Eagles.
Last week’s win at Manly underlined their recovered defensive resolve, while the individual brilliance of Valentine Holmes and Scott Drinkwater proved the difference.
Todd Payten has stuck solid with the same 17, with Reuben Cotter returning to the starting line-up and Jake Granville going back to the bench.
The Eels have won six of their last seven, responding to their 46-10 Origin-depleted loss to the Warriors with a nerve-shredding 25-24 eclipse of the Titans last Sunday.
A pair of sin-binnings – with both resulting in four-game bans – put them on the back foot before the class of Clint Gutherson and Mitch Moses got the blue-and-golds home in a late surge.
Ofahiki Ogden will start in the Parramatta front-row for the suspended Reagan Campbell Gillard, while Waqa Blake and Haze Dunster are the contenders to come onto the wing for the suspended Maika Sivo.
The eight-point defeat (with a four-strong Queesland contingent absent) in Round 13 was the Cowboys’ fourth loss from the last five matches between the clubs – a run that includes the Eels’ come-from-behind 24-20 win in last year’s Townsville-hosted preliminary final.
The Cowboys certainly have the edge in terms of recent form and line-up disruption, with the Eels reeling from the punishment dished out to RCG and Sivo.
But expect the tight nature of the club’s recent encounters to continue in a finals-like atmosphere at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.95
SGM: EELS +7.5 / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.27
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Sunday July 23, 2:00pm, Panthers Stadium
The cavalry come back to spearhead Penrith’s seemingly inevitable charge to a second straight minor premiership after navigating the rep period spectacularly well, while Canterbury has been hit by more personnel setbacks ahead of a daunting trip to the foot of the mountains.
Nathan Cleary has been named to make his return from a six-week layoff, with Jack Cogger dropping to 18th man.
NSW quartet Brian To’o, Isaah Yeo, Stephen Crichton and Liam Martin also come back after last week’s rest.
The Panthers have won eight of their last nine, carving out a statement 34-16 win in Melbourne prior to their Round 19 bye and running down the Dolphins 24-14 in Redcliffe on Sunday after rolling the dice on resting their Blues contingent.
The Bulldogs bounced back from a 66-0 loss to the Knights with a stirring 36-32 win over (albeit heavily depleted) Souths, with Toby Sexton producing a brilliant club debut. But their familiar defensive frailties came to the fore in a 44-24 loss to the Broncos at Belmore last weekend.
Cameron Ciraldo’s side has leaked 32-plus points in five straight games and their points conceded per game is the worst in the NRL by a considerable margin.
Sexton’s head knock against the Broncos is a blow, giving Kyle Flanagan another opportunity at halfback.
Paul Alamoti also returns for Braidon Burns (abdomen) and Harrison Edwards comes onto the bench. Viliame Kikau and Josh Addo-Carr are among the reserves.
The Panthers have won their last five against the Bulldogs by an average margin of 25.6 points. Last season an Origin-depleted side prevailed 30-18 at Penrith.
Giving away 28.5 points at the line, the $1.01 Panthers are the biggest favourites this season.
It’s a fair representation the gulf between the two teams, the standard of the cattle the Panthers are getting back and the form of the players that have guided them through the past two months.
The premiers are conceding less than 13 points per game and rarely underperform at home.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-28.5) @ $1.90
SGM: PANTHERS BY 31-40 / BULLDOGS UNDER 8.5 TOTAL POINTS / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SCOTT SORENSEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $32.26
Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday July 23, 4:05pm, Shark Park
Round 21 closes with another hugely pivotal encounter, with the reeling Cronulla Sharks striving to get back on track against a Manly Sea Eagles outfit that needs a win to stay in the playoffs frame.
The Sharks went to Auckland last Sunday on the back of three straight wins over the bottom three clubs by 24-plus margins – but also with a poor record against their fellow Top 8 teams hanging over them.
After opening the scoring, the Sharks folded badly in a 44-12 defeat to the Warriors.
Their vaunted pack was completely dominated through the middle and their defence – particularly on their left edge – was ruthlessly picked apart, the latter factor has prompted Craig Fitzgibbon to make some changes.
The Sharks have slipped to sixth and are in real danger of slipping out of the Top 8 altogether before too long given the Eels, Rabbitohs and Cowboys lurk just two points behind them.
Teig Wilton picked up an injury against the Warriors, which sees Jesse Colqhoun come into the Sharks’ second-row.
Dale Finucane returns from suspension at lock, while Connor Tracey gets a run at centre and Braydon Trindall at five-eighth with Siosifa Talakai benched and Matt Moylan axed.
The 7-1-9 Sea Eagles are only three points outside the Top 8 but have won only three of their last 10 games. They held off the struggling Roosters 18-16 in Round 18 but came out of the bye with a 19-8 home loss to the Cowboys.
Daly Cherry-Evans is carrying a side that has not won back-to-back games since Round 8 and has scored more than 18 points just twice in their last 10 outings.
Matt Lodge will come off the bench for his first appearance in Manly jumper, while Sean Keppie also rejoins the interchange. Toafofoa Sipley and Ethan Bullemor drop out.
The Sharks have four of their last five against the Sea Eagles – after winning just two of the previous 19 between the keen rivals – including a 20-14 result at Brookvale in Round 11.
Cronulla has also won four of its last five at home, while Manly has lost four of its last five on the road by double-digit margins.
The Sea Eagles should put up more resistance the Sharks’ recent victims, however, and both teams’ desperation should turn this into a real dogfight.
Tip: Back the Sea Eagles to Cover the Line (+8.5) @ $1.90
SGM: CRONULLA BY 1-12 / UNDER 47.5 TOTAL POINTS / CONNOR TRACEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $57.34
2022
Suspensions, injuries and big selection calls have clouded the make-up of NRL Round 21, which kicks off with a Top 8 blockbuster between the Roosters and Broncos.
Elsewhere, there’s plenty riding on the Manly-Parramatta and Cronulla-St George Illawarra grudge matches for all four clubs, Canberra will be aiming to take advantage of Penrith’s halves woes, and Canterbury has the opportunity to try out its revived offence on high-flying North Queensland
Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday August 4, 7:50pm, SCG
Sydney Roosters are searching for four straight wins for the first time in 2022 and can consolidate their place in the Top 8 with a home win over wounded Brisbane. The Roosters demolished the Dragons and Knights back-to-back, before holding off the Sea Eagles 20-10 in last Thursday’s emotion-charged clash.
The massive metres and tryscoring threat provided by Joey Manu and Daniel Tupou again proved decisive at Brookvale, while Luke Keary is easing his way back into the line-up nicely and James Tedesco put his stamp on the contest as per usual.
The Broncos’ flat 32-18 home lost to struggling Wests Tigers – their worst performance by far since early-April – was hard to explain. They were out-enthused by ragtag team, while the defeat came at a huge cost with burgeoning middle forward Patrick Carrigan rubbed out for four weeks for a hip drop tackle.
Rhys Kennedy is Carrigan’s replacement in the Broncos’ 17, while Jake Turpin replaces Cory Paix on the bench. In a major positive, Selwyn Cobbo makes his return on the wing.
The Roosters also have some enforced changes to their pack with Lindsay Collins (concussion) and Egan Butcher (suspension) out. Matt Lodge will start with Terrell May and Ben Thomas joining the bench.
The Roosters have won four of their last five against the Broncos, but the then-lowly Broncos produced a stunning 34-16 upset at the SCG last season. The two encounters since – both in Brisbane – finished in the Roosters’ favour by margins of four points or less. The Roosters held on 24-20 at Suncorp in Round 5 this year.
Though he’s a big loss and has developed into a leader, Broncos have more than enough quality depth to counter Carrigan’s absence. With Adam Reynolds pulling the strings and Ezra Mam and Tesi Niu providing game-breaking options, the Broncos’ attack is among the NRL’s most dangerous when it clicks – and Cobbo is a huge in.
The fifth-placed Broncos are also on a three-match winning streak in NSW while the Roosters have dropped their last three at the SCG. The Broncos also boast an NRL-best 13-6 record against the line, while their over record is 13-5 – second-highest in the league.
But the key for the visitors is aiming up physically and stemming the bruising Tricolours pack’s roll – a big if. Second-gamer Deine Mariner will also have his hands full up against Manu.
Tip: Back the Roosters by 1-12 @ $2.85
SGM: ROOSTERS WIN / OVER 43.5 POINTS / COREY OATES ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $10.12
Melbourne Storm vs Gold Coast Titans
Friday August 5, 6:00pm, AAMI Park
Injury-ravaged Melbourne snapped a four-match losing streak in Round 20 by grinding out an unattractive – but super-important – 24-12 win over the Warriors in the unwelcoming surrounds of Auckland’s Mt Smart Stadium. The Storm dominated the middle third battle but were regularly exposed down their right edge.
Craig Bellamy’s backline scenario just keeps getting worse. Justin Olam and Nick Meaney are both out injured. Tigers loaner David Nofoaluma comes straight in on a wing, with Grant Anderson moving to centre and Mr. Fix-it Tyran Wishart slotting in at fullback.
But Xavier Coates’ naming in the reserves is highly encouraging and Brandon Smith (suspension) is a big in.
Last-placed Gold Coast is meandering towards the end of the season, losing their last nine straight – though there were some positive signs in a 36-24 loss to Canberra last weekend after a dreadful start. But the inexperienced Titans have now conceded 30-plus points in seven of their last 11 games.
Jayden Campbell – who grabbed two tries off the interchange last week – returns to the starting fullback role, which sees AJ Brimson partner Tanah Boyd in the halves with Toby Sexton out. Greg Marzhew comes onto the bench.
The Storm boast an 18-6 record against the Titans since the latter’s 2007 arrival in the NRL, winning the last seven straight between the teams. Last season an under-strength Storm won a Round 13 clash 20-14 on the Sunshine Coast, before easing to a 34-20 victory in Round 23 on the Gold Coast.
This is a gift-wrapped opportunity for the Storm to go back-to-back for the first time since mid-June. Munster, Hughes, Grant and Smith will comfortably steer the home side to the two points, despite the patched-up backline outside them.
There’s still a fair bit of flair and firepower about the Titans, though, particularly with Campbell firing. The over shapes as a better play than taking on the big points starts the Storm are giving away, despite the Storm’s last four games have produced 36 points or less. The Titans’ over record is 11-8 with four of their last four six matches seeing 46-plus points scored.
Tip: Back Over 44.5 Points Total @ $1.90
SGM: STORM OVER 29.5 POINTS / TITANS OVER 12.5 POINTS / JAHROME HUGHES ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JOJO FIFITA ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $15.23
Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels
Friday August 5, 7:55pm, 4 Pines Park
After one of the most tumultuous week’s in the club’s history, all eyes are on Manly Sea Eagles to see how they regroup with the finals chances on the brink.
The 10th-placed Sea Eagles were brave in a 20-10 loss with seven top-liners missing, but there’s sure to still be a bit of tension in the ranks – and it will arguably take even more character this week to put up a strong showing.
Five of the players who stood down last week – Jason Saab, Christian Tuipulotu, Tolutau Koula, Haumole Olakau’atu and Toafofoa Sipley – return but Josh Schuster has been left out and Josh Aloiai is injured. Ben Trbojevic is back from a head knock.
Parramatta remain the NRL’s biggest puzzle, moving back up to sixth with a 34-10 win over a 12-man Penrith side a week after getting caned by Brisbane – keeping their record of not losing back-to-back in 2022 intact. Maika Sivo and Reed Mahoney picked up doubles but the Eels will be disappointed to go 43 minutes without scoring against a shorthanded opponent.
Meanwhile, linchpin Mitchell Moses is out for a month with a finger injury in what shapes as a big test of the flighty Eels’ cohesion. Moses has been replaced by maligned youngster Jake Arthur in the Eels’ only change.
Parramatta’s nerve-shredding 22-20 win at CommBank Stadium in Round 11 – with Moses burying a sideline conversion in the dying stages – ended a three-match losing streak against Manly. The Eels have not won at Brookvale since 2017.
This one’s a bit of a lottery, as indicated by the near-even head-to-head market. Under normal circumstances, you’d back Manly against a Moses-less Parramatta – but it has not been a normal couple of weeks on the northern beaches. Conversely, the Eels are an unknown quantity going in without their No.7 for the first time this year.
Parramatta matches have gone an NRL-high 15-4 to the over, while Manly’s over record is 11-8 after a couple of low-scorers in the past fortnight. Expect another down-to-the-wire thriller that should sneak over the total points line.
Tip: Back Over 41.5 Points @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 6.5 POINTS / SEA EAGLES OVER 20.5 POINTS / EELS OVER 18.5 POINTS / MAIKA SIVO ANYTIME TRY SCORER / HAUMOLE OLAKAU’ATU ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $23.60
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors
Saturday August 6, 3:00pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
The Saturday line-up gets underway on the Sunshine Coast with South Sydney aiming to get back on track from a golden point heart-breaker with a win over the also-ran Warriors. The Rabbitohs had their chances against Cronulla in extra-time but sunk to a 21-20 defeat following Tom Burgess’ send-off.
The defeat ended Souths’ four-match winning streak and leaves them vulnerable in seventh, just a win ahead of the Roosters and Raiders. Taane Milne comes in for the injured Jed Cartwright at centre this week, while Mark Nicholls replaces the suspended Burgess and Blake Taafe is on the bench with Kodi Nikorima out.
The Warriors’ 24-12 loss to the Storm in Auckland last Friday was their 10th in 11 games and – despite a hat-trick from winger Ed Kosi and some nice touches from makeshift five-eighth Wayde Egan – underlined their attacking deficiencies. They have shown genuine defensive fight against good teams in recent weeks, however.
Chanel Harris-Tavita and Jazz Tevaga were casualties from the Storm loss. Despite myriad more conventional options, Egan will play five-eighth after filling in admirably last week with Freddy Lussick to start at hooker and Taniela Otukolo joining the interchange. Euan Aitken reverts to centre for Adam Pompey and Aaron Pene and Jack Murchie come into the pack.
Souths’ 32-30 win over the Warriors in Magic Round – clocking off after racing to a 26-point lead – was their sixth straight in the rivalry and 12th from the teams’ last 13 encounters. The Rabbitohs have scored 28-plus points in 11 of their last 12 against the Warriors.
Souths are 3-0 at Sunshine Coast Stadium while the Warriors are 0-3. The Rabbitohs have clocked up 88 points to 44 in these clubs’ two previous clashes at the venue, including a 60-20 shellacking last season.
This is simply too important for the Rabbitohs to lose and there is a big gulf between the teams in terms of firepower and recent form. On a dry, warm Saturday afternoon this could be blowout.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-17.5 Points) @ $1.90
SGM: RABBITOHS BY 21-30 / OVER 45.5 POINTS / ALEX JOHNSTON TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $17.63
Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers
Saturday August 6, 5:30pm, GIO Stadium
Penrith is six points clear of the field with just two losses against its name. But last Friday’s 34-10 defeat to Parramatta came at a significant cost, Nathan Cleary banned for five weeks after being sent off to join injured halves partner Jarome Luai on the sidelines until the finals.
Jaeman Salmon and Sean O’Sullivan are set to be the Panthers’ halves pairing for the run home. The premiers have been boosted by the return of Stephen Crichton and Mitch Kenny.
Canberra is gamely staying the finals race, holding a share of eighth spot after winning its last three against Melbourne (20-16), the Warriors (26-14) and Gold Coast (36-24). Despite the disruption of injuries and suspensions, the Raiders’ young backline is humming and Nick Cotric and Sebastian Kris finished with doubles against the Titans.
Meanwhile, Jack Wighton is on an absolute tear and finished with three line-break assists on top of 124 running metres last week following his game-turning display against the Warriors in Round 19.
Winger Jordan Rapana comes back from suspension at Albert Hopoate’s expense in the Raiders’ only change this week.
Penrith has won seven of its last nine against Penrith, with the current three-match winning streak all consisting of victories by 16-plus margins. The Panthers pumped the Raiders 36-6 at home in Round 7, though the visitors were gutsier than the scoreline suggested. This is the teams’ first encounter at GIO Stadium since 2018.
Despite the Panthers’ absent linchpins, they are $1.72 favourites on the road – they have lost back-to-back just once since 2019 and certainly won’t roll over. But I’m willing to back the in-form Raiders in here. Wighton and Fogarty are building a strong combination and give the hosts enough of an advantage to get on board with here.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win @ $2.15
SGM: RAIDERS +2.5 / RAIDERS OVER 17.5 POINTS / TAYLAN MAY ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JORDAN RAPANA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $10.53
Cronulla Sharks vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Saturday August 6, 7:35pm, Shark Park
The latest instalment of the fiery southern Sydney derby shapes as make or break for St George Illawarra, while Cronulla can further entrench itself in the Top 4.
The Sharks outlasted the in-form Rabbitohs 21-20 in a golden point classic last Saturday, Nicho Hynes the hero as he capped a stellar performance with the winning field goal. It was their seventh win from eight games in the Shire this season.
In a tough setback for the Sharks, fullback Will Kennedy is expected to miss the rest of the regular season with Kade Dykes named to debut in his place. Braydon Trindall joins the bench with Royce Hunt out.
The Dragons sit two points outside the Top 8 after three losses from their last four games. Following an impressive, Ben Hunt-led 20-6 win over Manly in Round 19, they fell away badly in a 34-8 home defeat to North Queensland last Sunday.
The Saints are unchanged this week but are far too reliant on Hunt – they’d be in the bottom four if the halfback wasn’t having a career-best season.
The Sharks have won the six of the last seven southern Sydney derbies, including a 36-12 beatdown in Wollongong in Round 3 this season. The Dragons’ last win in the Shire was back in early-2018.
This match will say plenty about St George Illawarra’s resolve and the spirit in Anthony Griffin’s camp, which is fraying if the whispers are to be believed. Cronulla will be determined to maintain the momentum its built recently and should comfortably notch a seventh win in eight games.
Tip: Back the Sharks to Win by 13+ @ $2.30
SGM: SHARKS -9.5 / DRAGONS UNDER 15.5 POINTS / JESSE RAMIEN ANYTIME TRY SCORER / CONNOR TRACEY ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $10.19
Canterbury Bulldogs vs North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday August 7, 2:00pm, Salter Oval
Canterbury’s late-season joyride has garnered four wins in its last six matches. The Bulldogs probably didn’t go on with the job as expected in a 24-10 defeat of the lowly Knights last Sunday, but it was nevertheless the seventh time in nine games under Mick Potter they’ve topped 20 points after failing to do so in 10 games under Trent Barret.
Matt Burton and Josh Addo-Carr are on fire, with young three-quarters Jacob Kiraz and Aaron Schoupp following their lead. Kyle Flanagan has quietly put together a fine renaissance in a confident team.
Second-placed North Queensland responded to a controversial escape against Wests Tigers with an authoritative 34-8 thrashing of St George Illawarra in Sydney in Round 20.
After four straight games conceding exactly 26 points (winning three of those), it was a return to the defensive commitment that has underpinned their rise. Back-rower Jeremiah Nanai starred yet again with two tries and a bust to set up another, while Jason Taumalolo and Scott Drinkwater were also outstanding.
The Bulldogs are unchanged, while the Cowboys have the luxury of bringing Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow onto the wing for Kyle Feldt (hamstring) with Jake Granville promoted to the bench.
The Cowboys have won eight of their last 11 against the Bulldogs, but the blue-and-whites grabbed a 6-4 win in a dour Round 1 encounter in Townsville five months ago. Both teams seem a long way removed from that match – very much for the better.
The Bulldogs have pulled the inconsistent Eels’ pants down since turning their season around, but they haven’t quite had the class to foot it with the NRL’s other big guns. Todd Payten will have done his homework on how to limit Burton’s and Addo-Carr’s impact, while the forward pack mismatch here will proved decisive.
Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90
SGM: COWBOYS OVER 26.5 POINTS / JEREMIAH ANYTIME TRY SCORER / JOSH ADDO-CARR FIRST BULLDOGS TRY SCORER @ $17.01
Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights
Sunday August 7, 4:05pm, Campbelltown Sports Stadium
A bit of a fizzer to close out Round 21, with second-last Wests Tigers hosting 14th-placed Newcastle Knights. But it is a huge opportunity for both clubs to all but extricate themselves from wooden spoon danger.
The Tigers are on an upswing, following up the disappointment of their shockingly unfortunate after-the-siren loss in Townsville with a magnificent 32-18 victory in Brisbane. The performance of new halves pairing Adam Doueihi and Jock Madden has negated the injury impact of losing Luke Brooks and Jackson Hastings.
Fonua Pole will wear the No.13 jersey vacated by Hastings with Tom Freebairn becoming the Tigers’ sixth NRL debutant of 2022 from the bench.
The Knights are a shambles and have conceded 148 points in losing their last four games to regain the worst defensive record in the NRL. Kalyn Ponga is likely done for the season and there’s little to get excited about in the Newcastle line-up. The pressure certainly appears to be getting to coach Adam O’Brien.
David Klemmer has been dumped for disciplinary reasons, which makes Jacob Saifiti’s return very timely. Bradman Best is also back for the Knights, which sees Enari Tuala shift to the wing and Simi Sasagi to the bench.
The Knights carved out a 26-4 win over the Tigers in Round 2 – but their season unravelled from that point. Newcastle has won three of the teams’ last five clashes, including the most recent meeting in Sydney in 2020, but the Tigers have won last the two at Campbelltown.
Follow the formlines here: Doueihi is a special player and the Tigers have their tails up. The only resistance the Knights have shown in recent months has been against teams battling a crisis of confidence – but right now, no team in the comp is grappling with a lack of conviction more than the Novocastrians.
Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (-4.5 Points) @ $1.90
SGM: TIGERS BY 11-20 / OVER 41.5 POINTS / KEN MAUMALO ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $11.50
2021
The NRL remains stationed in Queensland for another week, only this time around all eight games will be played behind closed doors.
There’s no denying the absence of fans will be felt, but that doesn’t take away from a huge round of footy that features three top six blockbusters.
The Eels and the Rabbitohs headline a massive Friday night of football when they meet on the Gold Coast, followed by a scintillating double-header on Saturday with the Roosters and Panthers battling at Suncorp before Manly and Melbourne butt heads not long after.
This is also a crucial weekend for the likes of the Knights, Raiders, Dragons and Titans as they look to keep their finals hopes alive.
For our thoughts on all eight games, check out our 2021 NRL Round 21 Preview here!
Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday August 5, 7:50pm, Sunshine Coast Stadium
The Knights would have hoped to have been higher on the ladder by this point in the season, but Adam O’Brien’s side still has to feel pretty good about the fact they remain a chance to play finals with give games remaining.
Last week’s 34-24 win over the Raiders could turn out to be a season-defining win for Newcastle as they now set their sights on the bottom-feeding Broncos.
Enari Tuala led the way last week with a hat-trick, but O’Brien has to be impressed with the way his side came together to limit Canberra’s opportunities.
Brisbane, meanwhile, will fancy themselves a chance at picking up two straight wins following their blowout victory over the Cowboys last week.
The Broncos did extremely well to inflict most of the damage in the first half, but they now find themselves at a serious disadvantage with Katoni Staggs ruled out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
For Newcastle, there’s finally some positive news on the injury front with Mitchell Pearce set to rejoin Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best for a very favourable run home.
The Knights face the Sharks, Bulldogs and Titans before another clash against the Broncos in Round 25 – a welcome sign for Newcastle fans after enduring so much heartache this season.
With their stars fit and the top eight in reach, a Knights victory looks likely.
Tip: Back the Knights to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $2.00
Canberra Raiders vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Friday August 6, 6:00pm, CBUS Super Stadium
As far as the finals are concerned, this could be a make-or-break game on Friday night between ninth and tenth.
The Raiders appeared well on their way towards another finals berth a week ago before they ran into the full force of the Knights last Sunday at Suncorp.
Missed tackles and penalties cost Canberra big time in the 10-point loss, but they do have a prime opportunity to atone against a Dragons outfit that has spiraled out of the eight.
St George suffered its third consecutive loss last week in a 50-14 defeat at the hands of South Sydney, while things only look to get worse with Ben Hunt suffering a fractured arm.
The Dragons have failed to score more than 20 points in their last four contests, and while the Raiders gave up plenty to the Knights last week, they do deserve a mulligan after holding Parramatta to only 10 the week before.
With some tough games coming up against the Storm, Manly and the Roosters, Ricky Stuart’s side should sense the importance of a win here and take full advantage of the wounded Saints.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win & Under 50.5 Total Points @ $2.40
Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Friday August 6, 8:05pm, CBUS Super Stadium
The battle for fourth is one of the most intriguing storylines to watch as we head into the final month of the season.
Parramatta made things even more interesting with a shutout loss to the Roosters last week, a result that has left the Bunnies now sitting six points clear in third.
The Eels will be keen to bounce-back and distance themselves from the red-hot Chooks, but this does look a difficult assignment for them with an injury cloud hanging overhead.
While Mitchell Moses is set to return from a back injury, Waqa Blake and Reagan Campbell-Gillard both remain in some doubt.
The Rabbitohs, meanwhile, remain one of the healthiest sides in the competition and they are only about to get stronger with Campbell Graham a chance at playing.
Souths had no trouble scoring points against the Eels in their 18-point victory back in May and given the workout they’ve given the scoreboard in recent weeks; a similar result looks likely.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) @ $2.00
New Zealand Warriors vs Cronulla Sharks
Saturday August 7, 3:00pm, Suncorp Stadium
Sharks coach Josh Hannay will be stressing the importance of a win this week with his side desperately clinging to a spot inside the eight.
Cronulla has managed only two wins from its last five games as they look to forget all about last week’s ugly loss to Manly at Suncorp.
The Warriors are still a mathematical chance at playing finals thanks to a narrow win over the Tigers, while they’ll also be out for some revenge after losing by eight points to Cronulla when they met earlier in the year.
Winning back-to-back games has proven a problem for New Zealand, but this is a very winnable game with some reinforcements returning.
Addin Fonua-Blake, Chad Townsend and Chanel Tavita-Harris are all a chance at playing this week, and the trio will no doubt have plenty of opportunities against a Sharks outfit that has conceded more points than it’s scored.
Sporting a 5-3 record as the line underdog at home this year, the Warriors look a much better chance than the double-digit spread suggests.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+10.5 Points) @ $1.90
Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers
Saturday August 7, 5:30pm, Suncorp Stadium
The top of the table is again in focus on Saturday night with the Roosters and Panthers squaring off at Suncorp.
The tri-colours edged their way into the top four last week with a gutsy shutout victory over the Eels, while the Panthers suffered a humbling loss at the hands of the Storm that has left last year’s runner-ups with plenty to think about heading towards the finals.
The Roosters have spent most of the season overcoming injury and they’ll need to do that again with Josh Morris likely to miss the next month.
The Panthers also look likely to spend another week without Nathan Cleary, although there is some positive news on the Isaah Yeo front.
Aside from the scoreboard, Penrith was no match for the Storm defensively last week missing 39 tackles in the loss.
There’s no question Ivan Cleary will be asking more from his side, but it’s also tough to read too much into one game against the current premiership favourites.
If Morris was playing, the current double-digit line would probably be slimmer, but with the Roosters missing one of their key on-field leaders, this does look Penrith’s game to lose.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-10 Points) @ $1.90
Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday August 7, 7:35pm, Suncorp Stadium
The Storm will be looking to add to their amazing 16-game winning streak on Saturday with the scalp of another genuine premiership contender.
If they weren’t already, Melbourne earned their spot as the rightful premiership favourite last week with a blowout win over Penrith, extending their record at Suncorp to 24 wins from 28 games.
Manly won’t be an easy out this week after stringing together three consecutive wins over the Dragons, Tigers, and Sharks, but it’s fair to say this a big step up in class for a side that is still vying for a top four spot.
Head to head, Melbourne has won their last three games over Manly and outscored them 84-30 during that time frame.
The current form of Tom Trbojevic is enough to keep this game close, while the fact Justin Olam has scored two hat-tricks against Manly makes for an interesting battle down he middle.
The current double-digit line is a little nerve-racking when you consider how well the Sea Eagles have been playing, but given the Storm have gone 16-3 at the line this year, I think we could see a sneaky backdoor cover late in the game.
Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-12.5 Points) @ $1.90
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers
Sunday August 8, 2:00pm, Moreton Daily Stadium
Bragging rights are on the line on Sunday between the Bulldogs and Tigers.
Canterbury has now lost six straight games following last week’s 34-6 defeat against the Titans, a disappointing performance from Trent Barrett’s men after two honourable losses to the Sharks and Rabbitohs.
The Tigers, meanwhile, will be eager to make up for last week’s loss to the Warriors that saw them squander a 10-point lead.
As far as the wooden spoon race is concerned, the Bulldogs should also sense the importance of this game after the Broncos drew six points clear with a win over the Cowboys last week.
On the injury front, Moses Mbye is shifting to fullback in place of the injured Daine Laurie, while Bailey Biondi-Odo will make his debut for the Bulldogs after Kyle Flanagan was dropped.
In terms of trends, the Tigers have won their last two meetings against the Bulldogs, while they’ve also managed to score 29 points or more in both contests.
It’s difficult to feel overly confident in either side head-to-head, but with the Bulldogs leading the lead in points against, the Over on the Tigers looks profitable.
Tip: Tigers Over 28.5 Total Points @ $1.88
Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday August 8, 4:05pm, CBUS Super Stadium
The Titans find themselves back in the eight following a 28-point win over the Bulldogs last week, but the job is far from over with the Raiders, Dragons and Knights all breathing down their neck.
Gold Coast faces a tough run home with games against the Rabbitohs, Storm and Knights ahead, making a win over the Cowboys vitally important this week for Justin Holbrook’s side with time running out.
Todd Payten, meanwhile, will be hoping to spoil the Titans’ party, but it’s fair to say the Cowboys won’t hold particularly fond memories of the Gold Coast after they were walloped 44-8 when they met back in March.
Following a similar script, the Cowboys have lost four of their last five games by double digits, although there might be some reprieve on the horizon with Valentine Holmes set to play his first game in over a month.
Even with Holmes in the lineup, the Titans should win this game if they can keep their defensive errors to a minimum and also stick the majority of their tackles – two things they did well last week against the Dogs.
There’s no denying the fact these two sides rank second and sixth respectively in points against though, so the Winner/Total Points double is a very appealing play.
Tip: Back the Titans to Win & Over 55.5 Total Points @ $2.60
2019
There’s a serious dose of Sunday footy to look forward to this week as the top four sides square off in a big afternoon double-header.
Six of the eight favourites got up last week, but time is starting to run out for a handful of teams still fighting for a finals spot.
With the ladder far from set, expect plenty of upsets, all of which can be found in our 2019 NRL Round 21 Preview below.
https://youtu.be/1-3lNsm4e14
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday August 8, 7:50pm, 1300Smiles Stadium
https://youtu.be/clIrpoYPsGE
Anthony Seibold’s side will be hoping to put last week’s horror show behind them with a chance at playing finals still on the cards.
The Broncos mustered only four points in a blowout loss to the Storm, but after winning two of their last three games on the road, Brisbane has to feel confident ahead of Thursday night’s trip up north.
The Cowboys also fell in similar fashion to the Tigers last week. North Queensland has little to play for with the season winding down, although the Cowboys will be hungry to make up for their Round 2 loss to the Broncos at Suncorp earlier in the year.
The market for this game offers tremendous value on either side. Brisbane owns a poor 4-6 record away from home this year, but their 4-1 record as the favourite on the road against the Cowboys makes them hard to bet against.
Mentally, this is a huge challenge for the Broncos, but it might just be the perfect bounce-back game to help Brisbane turn its season around.
The Cowboys have won only three of the nine games at home this year, and also rank seventh in missed tackles.
Four of the last five games between these two sides have been decided by 1-12 points, so if the Broncos can start fast and get the monkey of last week’s blowout off their back, they should win this one.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Win @ $1.80
New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles
Friday August 9, 6:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium
https://youtu.be/V_BW1HmBSH4
The Warriors were sent packing last week at home to the Raiders, both on the scoreboard and on the ladder.
New Zealand was one win away from rejoining the top eight, but they’ve since slumped all the way down to 12th on the ladder with the season quickly running out.
Manly, on the other hand, are in the drivers’ seat for a spot inside the top four. The Sea Eagles have now won three straight games following last week’s demolition over the Knights, and after pinching an overtime victory over the Warriors last time they travelled to Auckland back in 2017, Manly should feel confident as the favourites this week.
These two sides have met once already this year, although you could hardly call it a game. Manly won comfortably 46-12 at Brookvale as both Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans enjoyed a pair of tries each.
Neither coach will read too much into their Round 3 meeting, but the Sea Eagles will be aware of New Zealand’s horror run at home of late. The Warriors have lost six straight games at Mt. Smart Stadium and are 1-2 as the home underdog against Manly.
There’s no doubt the Sea Eagles are a genuine premiership contender now, and while they should win this game, there’s nothing to say the Warriors can’t keep it close, though.
New Zealand is 2-1 as the line underdog at home to Manly, and after last week’s lacklustre effort, you can expect the Warriors to show some fight in the early goings. Considering the Kiwis lead the league in post-contact meters and also rank second in tackles, back the Warriors to keep this close.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $2.00
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks
Friday August 9, 7:55pm, Panthers Stadium
https://youtu.be/d7eqLXDobyw
You can expect plenty of fight in this Friday night thriller.
Cronulla’s win over the Rabbitohs last week was enough to earn the Sharks a spot back inside the eight, but it also knocked Penrith out in the process as the Panthers are now left scrambling for answers.
Ivan Cleary’s side looked flat in their 16-8 loss to the Bulldogs, and it’s now up to Penrith to respond with their season on the line.
The Panthers weren’t exactly dominated by the Sharks when they met back in Round 6, but it was evident Penrith’s forward line struggled to cope with Cronulla’s strong defensive pressure.
Home-field advantage should play a big part in this game if Panthers fans turn out in full force. The Sharks have been terrible on the road this year, winning only three of their 10-games away from home.
With that in mind though, Cronulla has won seven straight games against the Panthers dating back to 2015. The Sharks tend to save their best footy for this time of year, and with Penrith sporting a 3-6 record on the back of a loss this season, it’s worth backing Cronulla straight-up.
Tip: Back the Sharks to Win @ $1.65
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans
Saturday August 10, 3:00pm, Jubilee Stadium
https://youtu.be/4u0AnA-1xtk
The understrength Dragons fought gallantly last week against the Eels, only to walk away with their fifth straight loss.
The same can’t be said for the Titans, who found themselves trailing 28-0 at halftime against the Roosters in Sydney.
This now shapes up as a bit of a nothing game between two sides fighting for little more than bragging rights. A win for the Titans could make the wooden spoon picture very interesting, but after losing 54-8 against St. George last year, it’s tough to find any confidence in Gold Coast right now.
Despite the recent trend of high-scoring games between these two, the Unders looks to be the safest play on Saturday.
Not surprisingly, both sides rank bottom five in points scored this year, and while the Dragons’ defence held firm against the Eels last week, St. George has suddenly hit a bit of a scoring drought.
Tip: Under 41.5 Total Match Points @ $1.88
Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday August 10, 5:30pm, Western Sydney Stadium
https://youtu.be/wz04bjo4oR0
Maika Sivo and Dylan Brown proved the difference makers for the Eels last week in their not-so thrilling 12-4 win over the Dragons.
Despite the low score, it was a much-needed win for Parramatta as Brad Arthur’s side finds themselves four points clear of the ninth-place Panthers.
Things aren’t quite so clear cut for the Knights right now. Newcastle was torn apart by Manly at Brookvale last week – their fifth straight loss since a brilliant run of midseason form.
Even with all the off-field distractions, the Knights still find themselves in a position to play finals. With only two points separating Newcastle from the seventh-place Sharks, a win this weekend could move the Knights one step closer to a top-eight berth.
Fortunately for the Knights, form is on their side. Newcastle has won four straight games over the Eels dating back to 2017, while the Knights also hold a 3-1 record as the away underdog against Parramatta.
This is a huge test for Newcastle’s two biggest leaders Kalyn Ponga and Mitchell Pearce. There’s plenty going on off the field, but if the Knights can limit Mitch Moses and challenge the Eels’ questionable defence, they loom as a huge upset chance.
Tip: Back the Knights to Win @ $2.24
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers
Saturday August 10, 7:35pm, ANZ Stadium
https://youtu.be/7o6qvVPpJpk
This should be a huge test of the Tigers’ maturity on the heels of last week’s 28-4 thumping over the Cowboys.
Michael Maguire’s side is in the eight for now, but with the Sharks and Panthers also tied on points, Wests needs to win out from here to ensure they make the finals.
The Bulldogs stand in the way, a side fresh from a huge upset over the Panthers last week. On their day, Canterbury is capable of beating any of the top sides, especially with Reimis Smith and Will Hopoate leading the charge.
Canterbury made short work of the Tigers back in Round 3 winning 22-8 in Campbelltown. The Bulldogs are 2-1 as the home underdog against Wests, and although last week’s win was a huge boost, Canterbury’s lack of possession was of major concern.
This game is one you’re best off staying away from, especially considering the Tigers haven’t won three games in a row since last season.
Tip: No Bet
Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters
Sunday August 11, 2:00pm, GIO Stadium
https://youtu.be/2DTgHxR891Y
If this game turns out anything like their Round 9 clash we should be in for a real treat.
While you can’t read too much into their 58-6 win over the Titans last week, the Roosters look back to their best having now won three straight games.
The Raiders have been equally impressive over the last month, particularly on the road last week in Auckland. Canberra wasted no time scoring two tries inside the opening 20-minutes, eventually winning 46-10 to draw even on points with the second-place Roosters.
One of these sides will move into outright second on the ladder, and as the odds suggest, it’s a very tough call.
The Roosters won 30-24 when these sides met during Magic Round at Suncorp, but keep in mind, they haven’t won in Canberra since 2010.
You can expect Canberrans to turn out in full force for this game and make life tough for the visitors. The Roosters haven’t travelled outside of Sydney in over a month, and after losing 14-12 in Adelaide against the Storm back in June, the Chooks recent road form is questionable.
The Raiders are 6-2 as the home favourite over the last 12 months, and if Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad can win the battle against James Tedesco, Canberra should go a long way towards winning this.
The Green Machine also ranks top five in points, tries, possession and set completion, leaving the Roosters with plenty of work to do on the road.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win @ $2.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Sunday August 11, 4:05pm, Central Coast Stadium
https://youtu.be/9nCkBQ6gjZw
As expected, the Storm bounced back from their Round 19 loss to Manly to win comfortably against the Broncos at Suncorp last week.
Melbourne’s road trip continues on Sunday as they head to Gosford to face the Rabbitohs, but on a ground that should favour the Bunnies, it’s safe to say the Storm look a little under the odds at this price.
It’s been nearly 12 months since these two met during Week 1 of the finals last season – a game the Rabbitohs lost in heartbreaking fashion 29-28 at AAMI Park.
That’s a long time to stew on revenge, and while three of the last four games between these two sides have been decided by 1-12 points, Souths might be in for another dose of disappointment on Sunday.
There’s nothing stopping the Bunnies from keeping this close, but they might shoot themselves in the foot again with sloppy errors, much like they did last week against the Sharks.
South Sydney are 2-3 on the back of a loss this season, which doesn’t bode well against a Storm side that leads the league in just about every offensive statistical category.
Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: South Sydney Rabbitohs/Melbourne Storm @ $7.00
2018
There were a handful of upsets last week, but would you believe it, life inside the Top 8 of the NRL ladder has remained relatively unchanged.
The Cowboys, Bulldogs and Titans all surprised last week, but while the bottom dwellers earned some much needed points, all eyes are on the Tigers, Warriors and Sharks ahead of Round 21.
Picking winners has never been tougher, but with just five rounds left until finals, make sure you check out all of our 2018 NRL Round 21 tips in our preview below!
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday 2 August, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium
For the second week in a row the Broncos open the round, and on the back of a resounding home win over the Sharks last week, it looks as though Brisbane are primed to stay in the Top 8.
The Broncos opened last week’s blockbuster with intent, and were too strong for Cronulla in the end. The Sharks dominated in the possession count, but Brisbane capitalised on Cronulla’s errors and wayward penalties.
After playing three straight at Suncorp, the Broncos now head down to Sydney, and unlike the Tigers last week, Brisbane needs to be wary of this young Bulldogs team.
Canterbury stunned everyone with a big 16-4 win over Wests last Friday night. The Dogs, just like the Broncos, saw two tries from one of their star players in Kerrod Holland, while Cantebury’s defence resembled an effort we haven’t seen all year.
Not surprisingly, the Broncos have won three of their last five over the Bulldogs, and are also 4-2 as the away favourite over the last 12 months. What was a surprise though was Round 9’s narrow two-point win over the Dogs, a game that came down to a Moses Mbye missed penalty shot.
Sometimes the past is meaningless, but in this instance, it’s a good reminder of what the Broncos need to do on Thursday night. Brisbane dominated possession the last time these two met, but their never-break defence around the try line last week against the Sharks was something we haven’t seen from the Broncos all season.
Brisbane have yet to put up convincing stretches of footy, but this is their chance to really rise up the ladder and build on last weeks performance. The Broncos’ 5-4 record on the road isn’t great, but it’s hard to see them not taking full advantage of his opportunity.
Tip: Back Brisbane Broncos 13+ @ $2.60
Same Game Multi: Broncos 13+, Anthony Milford Anytime Try Scorer ($2.60)
Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
Friday 3 August, 6:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Both of these sides were left reeling after double disappointment last Friday night, so it’s only fitting the Knights and the Tigers kick us off on prime-time once again.
Newcastle were in the game last week, at least up until half time. The Knights jumped out to a 12-0 lead in the opening 10-minutes against the Cowboys, but failed to hold down Jonathan Thurston and Gavin Cooper in the second half.
The result, a narrow two-point loss, the Knights’ 11th of the year. Newcastle are still an outside shot at finals from here, but it will take a big win over the Tigers, a team also in the finals hunt.
Speaking of Wests, last weeks loss to the Dogs was nothing short of a disaster. With a much more talented side on the park – and not to mention two straight wins over the Dragons and Rabbitohs – everyone expected the Tigers to get the job done. But alas, Wests struggled from the opening kickoff, notching just one try in the game.
Despite their shortcomings, the Tigers still come in at the shorter odds. That’s hardly good news for punters though – Wests have an ugly 0-3 record as the away favourite this season.
Of course, you can’t say much more for the Knights. Newcastle are 2-7 as the home underdog over the last 12 months, setting us up for what could be quite the scrappy and ugly affair.
The Knights showed a lot more fight last week, but their 4-6 record at home has to make you nervous.
With the Warriors also slipping down the ladder, the Tigers now need to realise the importance of a win here on Friday. Let’s just hope last week was a minor hiccup.
Tip: Back Wests Tigers To Beat The Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.92
Same Game Multi: Tigers To Win, Moses Mbye First Try Scorer ($13)
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Friday 3 August, 7:55pm, ANZ Stadium
We speak so much of Grand Final previews, and often they fail to live up to the hype.
This one, though? Well this should be fun.
The Rabbitohs looked far and away the premiership favourites two weeks ago, but wouldn’t you know it, the Storm had something to say. Sitting atop the ladder for the third week in a row, the Storm enter as the favourite, but with both sides tied on points, this is a huge opportunity for either team to claim the outright lead.
To rewind, the Rabbits got the job done last week, but it wasn’t as convincing as you might have hoped. The Eels have hardly been easy-beats over the last month and a half, but the fact they scored three tries on what has otherwise been a pretty relentless Rabbitohs defence has to come as a concern to coach Anthony Seibold.
Meanwhile, back in Melbourne, the Storm are just going along at their own pace. After a couple of narrow wins, Craig Bellamy’s side handed it to the Raiders last Saturday, piling on the points in a 44-10 victory.
So what does that leave us with?
The stats say the Storm are 3-1 as the away favourite against the Rabbitohs, and let’s just say, Melbourne’s 7-3 record on the road this season is equally as convincing.
To make matters worse, the Storm have also won five straight against Souths, which doesn’t spell good news for the Bunnies top of the ladder hopes.
If Souths are to win this game, they’ll have to accomplish what just about every other team has failed at – shutdown the Storms’ playmakers. Josh Addo-Carr had a quiet one by his standards last week, but the thing about this Melbourne side is there are so many other names that can sting you.
Felise Kaufusi scored a try in the win agaisnt Canberra, but also racked up 36 tackles. Melbourne are firing on all cylinders right now, and since the Rabbitohs have struggled to contain the Tigers and Eels in recent weeks, this game looks a bit beyond them.
Tip: Back Melbourne Storm 13+ @ $3.75
Same Game Multi: Under 36.5 Points, Suliasi Vunivalu Anytime Try Scorer ($2.08)
St. George Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 4 August, 3:00pm, WIN Stadium
What gives?
The Dragons and Warriors looked primed for big things in the finals, but after big losses in Round 20, now it’s hard to tell.
Let’s start with New Zealand. Last Sunday’s efforts against the Titans was hardly what we’ve come to expect from this side on the road, and after such great success two weeks prior in Brisbane, a blowout loss to the Titans sees the Warriors in danger of slipping out of the eight.
The Dragons, well they are anyone’s guess. St. George were seriously outclassed by a much stronger Roosters team last week, a game that shaped up as a finals preview. Ben Hunt was great on the day scoring two tries, but it appeared even the Dragons’ best wasn’t enough to stop the likes of Latrell Mitchell and James Tedesco.
For the record, the Dragons have won three of the last five games they’ve played against the Warriors, but St. George are far from a guarantee. Paul McGregor’s side has now lost three of their last four, and despite winning the possession battle last week, it appears the Dragons’ defence just isn’t up to scratch.
It’s safe to say the Warriors have the talent to get the job done this week, but it’s hard to put much faith in New Zealand’s 5-4 record as the away underdog. The Warriors inability to stay composed during the big “momentum moments” of the game last week cost them, and if they fail to stay calm on defence this week, they too will struggle.
Points won’t be coming at a premium this week, but after losing back-to-back games for the first time this season, the Warriors are a great chance to bounce-back at some handy upset odds.
Tip: Back New Zealand Warriors To Win @ $2.80
Same Game Multi: Warriors To Win By 3+ Points, Solomone Kata First Try Scorer
Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 4 August, 5:30pm, ANZ Stadium
The Eels nearly pinched the chocolates last week, while the Titans went all the way.
This might look like nothing more than a game between two cellar dwellers, but rest assured, this match up should hold plenty of fireworks.
The Titans’ 36-12 victory over the Warriors last week was Gold Coast’s biggest ever victory over New Zealand, while the Eels will take plenty away from last weeks close call against the Rabbitohs.
Head-to-head, the Titans have won three of the last five encounters between these two, but Gold Coast surprisingly come in as the away underdog this week.
Fortunately for punters, that’s good news, because the Eels own an ugly 3-5 record as the home favourite, which is just one game worse than the Eels’ overall home record of 4-5 on the season.
The Titans have been a frustrating watch for fans, and a frustrating side for punters, but Gold Coast have strung together back-to-back wins on two separate occasions this season.
Gold Coast were unlucky two weeks ago against the Knights, but it was nice to see Garth Brennan’s side back their efforts up with a win last week.
This one figures to be close, but if the Titans can keep the ball in Phillip Sami’s hands, it should be theirs for the taking.
Tip: Back Gold Coast Titans To Win @$2.10
Same Game Multi: Titans To Win, Anthony Don First Try Scorer ($5.25)
Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 4 August, 7:35pm, Allianz Stadium
Forget sleepers, the Roosters are right back in the NRL Premiership mix.
All the talk is around the Rabbitohs and the Storm, but how about Sydney stringing together three straight?
The Roosters were dominant last week against the Dragons, and it’s been nice to see Latrell Mitchell continue his strong Origin form in the second half of the season.
For the Cowboys, there’s probably no worse sign than the chooks right now.
North Queensland pinched a win at home last week against the Knights in what was a nice early swansong for Jonathan Thurston, but it’s going to take something extraordinary for the Cowboys to win here on Saturday.
The odds don’t lie, the Cowboys are hardly a chance.
The bookies had North Queensland at $4.50 when the market opened up, and with a 5-12 record as the underdog over the last 12 months, it’s tough to predict any kind of upset this week.
The Roosters look to be in cruise control right now, but you can’t discredit the individual performances.
James Tedesco ran for 220 metres last week, completely outclassing Matt Dufty, while Mitchell and Cooper Cronk just continue to click.
Sydney are 7-3 at home this season, and with the chance to jump up to second on the ladder with both the Storm and Rabbitohs squaring off, this should be a big Roosters win.
Tip: Back Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (-11.5 Points @ $1.91)
Same Game Multi: Roosters To Win, Cooper Cronk Anytime Try Scorer ($3.00)
Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 5 August, 2:00pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium
The Sharks came so close against the Broncos last week in Brisbane, but crucial errors and a lack of attack outside of Valentine Holmes ultimately cost Cronulla in the end.
In similar fashion, the Sea Eagles also came close against the Panthers, only to come undone in the 73rd minute as Nathan Cleary crossed the line.
It’s been a tough season for Manly, who now sit 14th on the ladder.
The Sea Eagles won their most recent outing against the Sharks last season, but in case you’ve missed it, this is a completely different Cronulla side.
If it wasn’t for sloppy penalties last week, the Sharks probably have the points right now.
Their offense has been electric all year, and despite the lack of scoring last week, Cronulla’s offloading ability and prowess in the air still makes them a serious premiership threat.
History shows the Sharks are 1-2 as the home favourite against Manly, but the Sea Eagles’ shocking 2-7 record on the road this year tells the full story.
Winning the possession battle but falling apart with the ball in hand has been the story for Manly this year.
The Sea Eagles had every chance last week against Penrith, but 13 errors and 19 ineffective tackles cost them.
Against a Sharks lineup with so much firepower, that kind of play won’t cut it.
Tip: Back Cronulla Sharks 1-12 @ $2.88
Same Game Multi: Sharks 1-12, Over 42.5 Total Match Points
Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders
Sunday 5 August, 4:10pm, Panthers Stadium
It might not seem it, but this could actually be the game of the round.
A loss to close out Round 21 could see the Panthers fall down to eighth on the ladder, while a win for the Raiders would (once again) put them back in the talk for finals.
Penrith’s fall from grace has been extraordinary, but last weeks win over Manly had to have felt good.
Nathan Cleary was outstanding all game, scoring the game-winning try in the 73rd minute and slotting four of his five conversion attempts.
Canberra, well the same can’t be said.
The Raiders have flirted with the Top 8 for the last six weeks, but their less than convincing 34-point loss against the Storm just doesn’t cut it.
Fast forward to Sunday, and we could be in for quite the shootout.
The Panthers have won four of their last five encounters against Canberra, but the last three games have been decided by four points or less.
The Raiders don’t come into this one as favourites, and as their 1-7 record as the away underdog suggests, they are a tough back for punters.
On the other hand, Penrith’s glaring inconsistencies from week-to-week hardly make them a trustworthy bet either, and since their last home game saw the Panthers fall to the Sharks, it’s probably safer to avoid this one entirely.
Tip: No Bet
2017
There are plenty of big games in the NRL this weekend and a number of Premiership contenders will do battle in finals previews.
The Parramatta Eels have the chance to keep themselves in the top four conversation when they host the Brisbane Broncos on Friday night, while the North Queensland Cowboys will face their biggest challenge in over a month when they face the Sydney Roosters.
There is betting interest in each and every game this weekend and our complete 2017 NRL Round 21 tips can be found below.
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Thursday 27 July, 7.50pm, Pepper Stadium
Penrith Panthers 16 - Canterbury Bulldogs 8
The Penrith Panthers have recorded three wins on the trot and they will go into this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as clear favourites.
Penrith were solid enough against the Gold Coast Titans and they simply need to keep on winning to have any chance of jumping into the top eight.
The Panthers have now won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and even more impressively they are 9-2 against the line in this scenario.
Canterbury produced another putrid performance against the Brisbane Broncos and there has been more speculation about the coaching future of Des Hasler.
The Bulldogs have lost their past nine games as away underdogs and they are a poor 3-5 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that Penrith really should win comfortably and they are an excellent bet to cover the line with a start of 8.5 points.
Back Penrith To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)
New Zealand Warriors vs Cronulla Sharks
Friday 28 July, 6.00pm, Mt Smart Stadium
New Zealand Warriors 12 - Cronulla Sharks 26
The New Zealand Warriors were not disgraced without Shaun Johnson last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the Cronulla Sharks as underdogs.
New Zealand have failed to turn Mt Smart Stadium into a fortress in 2017 and they have won only seven of their past 13 games as home favourites for a loss, while they are an extremely poor 4-9 against the line in this scenario.
Cronulla returned to winning form against the South Sydney Rabbitohs last Friday night and they are chasing their first back-to-back wins since May.
The Sharks have won only two of their past six games as away favourites for a clear loss and they are a disappointing 1-5 against the line in this scenario.
The one betting play that does standout in this clash is the Under in the Total Points betting market.
Backing the Under in Sharks games has been a profitable play all season long and the Under has saluted in five of the past six games played between these two sides.
This game should be a grind and the Under really does look like the right bet.
Back Under 39.5 Points
Parramatta Eels vs Brisbane Broncos
Friday 28 July, 7.50pm, ANZ Stadium
Parramatta Eels 28 - Brisbane Broncos 14
The Parramatta Eels have won four games on the trot, but the Brisbane Broncos are the toughest test that they have faced in some time.
A late Corey Norman field goal got the Eels home against the Wests Tigers, but they will clearly need to improve on that performance to have any chance against the Broncos.
The Eels have won only two of their past five games as home underdogs for a narrow loss and they have the same record against the line in this scenario.
A very strong second-half saw the Brisbane Broncos record a big win over the Canterbury Bulldogs and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Broncos have found their best form at the right time of the season.
Brisbane have won five of their past six games as away favourites for a profit and they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.
This is a game that the Broncos should win, but there is no real value at their current price and this is a clash that I am happy to stay out of from a betting perspective.
No Bet
Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Saturday 29 July, 3.00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium
Newcastle Knights 21 - St George Illawarra Dragons 14
The St George Illawarra Dragons returned to winning form in emphatic fashion and they are dominant favourites to account for the Newcastle Knights in this clash.
St George could hardly have been more impressive against Manly and the fact that they were able to score 52 points is a testament to how their attack has improved in 2017.
The problem for the The Dragons is that they don’t have a great record as away favourites – they have won only one of their past three games in this scenario.
Newcastle were no match for the Sydney Roosters last weekend and they have shown a truly remarkable inability to string together a pair of positive performances.
The Knights have won only two of their past 11 games as home underdogs for a loss and they are a very poor 3-8 against the line in this scenario.
This is another game where the only value is in the Total Points betting market and once again lies with the Under.
The Under has saluted in seven of the past 11 away games played by the Dragons and has also been a profitable betting play in Knights’ games this season.
Back Under 42.5 Points
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders
Saturday 29 July, 5.30pm, ANZ Stadium
South Sydney Rabbitohs 18 - Canberra Raiders 32
Both these teams are all but certainly out of finals calculations and it will be interesting to see how they finish the season.
It is the Canberra Raiders that will go into this clash as favourites and it really is tough to trust a team that has lost five out of their past six games.
Canberra have won five of their past eight games as away favourites for a loss, but they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.
South Sydney sunk to their third loss on the trot when they went down to the Cronulla Sharks last weekend and it has been another season of disappointment for the Rabbitohs.
The Rabbitohs have won only two of their past eight games as home underdogs and they are a lacklustre 4-4 against the line in this situation.
This is a game that Canberra really should win and they can cover the line against South Sydney in the process.
Back Canberra To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)
Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 29 July, 7.30pm, Allianz Stadium
Sydney Roosters 22 - North Queensland Cowboys 16
This is one of the biggest games of the weekend and will be a true test of where both these teams stand at this stage of the season.
The Sydney Roosters have won five of their past six games and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
The Roosters have won seven of their past nine games as home favourites for a profit, but they are only 3-6 against the line in this scenario for a big loss.
North Queensland made it four wins on the trot with a professional performance against the New Zealand Warriors and they have handled the loss of Johnathan Thurston extremely well.
This is the toughest test that the Cowboys have faced since Thurston was ruled out for the rest of the season and their record away from home has been strong.
The Cowboys have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs for a profit and they are a most impressive 6-1 against the line in this scenario.
There really is not a great deal between these two teams and the Cowboys are a good bet to cover the line with a start 3.5 points.
Back North Queensland Cowboys To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles
Sunday 30 July, 2.00pm, AAMI Park
Melbourne Storm 40 - Manly Sea Eagles 6
The rivalry between the Melbourne Storm and the Manly Sea Eagles is not as intense as it once was, but this is still one of the most interesting games of the weekend.
There are queries over the fitness of both Billy Slater and Cameron Smith, but the Storm are still set to go into this clash as favourites.
Melbourne have not been as impressive at home as they have been on the road this season and they have won nine of their past 13 games as home favourites, while they are 4-9 against the line in this scenario.
Manly produced arguably their worst performance of the season to go down to the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from that heavy defeat.
The Sea Eagles have won five of their past nine games as away underdogs for a big profit and they are 6-3 against the line in this scenario.
There is never much between these two sides and Manly are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 3.5 points.
Back Manly To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers
Sunday 30 July, 4.00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
Gold Coast Titans 4 - Wests Tigers 26
The Gold Coast Titans had their winning streak ended by the Penrith Panthers last weekend and they will need to win just about every game left this season to have any chance of playing finals football.
The Titans will start this clash as favourites, but this is a scenario that they have struggled with badly this season and their record at Cbus Super Stadium is particularly poor.
Gold Coast have won only one of their past five games as home favourites for a huge loss and this is the sort of game that they have struggled with this season.
The Tigers produced an improved effort against the Parramatta Eels last weekend, but they were still unable to come away with the two points.
Wests have won four of their past 11 games as away underdogs and they are a profitable 7-1-3 against the line in this scenario.
There is nowhere near as much between these two teams as the current betting market suggests and the Tigers are an excellent bet to cover the line with a big start.
Back Wests To Beat The Line (+9.5 Points)
2016
The NRL has now determined the calendar for the rest of the NRL season and the schedule has not been optimized so that the most exciting fixtures will take place during prime time.
Round 21 of the 2016 NRL season is clearly highlighted by two preliminary final rematches, with the North Queensland Cowboys set to host the Melbourne Storm at 1300 Smiles Stadium and the Sydney Roosters poised to face the Brisbane Broncos.
Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday 28 July, 7:50pm, Allianz Stadium
Sydney Roosters 32 - Brisbane Broncos 16
The Brisbane Broncos suffered their sixth loss in their past eight games against the Penrith Panthers last weekend, but they will still start this clash with the Sydney Roosters as favourites.
There is clearly something going wrong at the Broncos and their defence has proven to be a very big liability, while the Anthony Milford and Ben Hunt are not playing at anywhere near their best.
The Broncos once reliable betting record is long gone and they have won just five of their past nine games as away favourites, while they are 4-5 against the line in this scenario.
The Sydney Roosters’ woes continued with their loss to the Melbourne Storm last weekend and they have not won a single game since they beat the Wests Tigers on June 5.
Scoring points has not been a problem for the Roosters, but their defence has been very poor in recent weeks and they have lost their past six games as home underdogs, with a very poor 1-1-4 against the line.
I have no interest whatsoever in backing either of these two sides in their current form, but with their defensive liabilities the Over in the total points betting market looks like a simply outstanding bet.
Recommended Bet: Back The Over (41.5 Points)
Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Dragons
Friday 29 July, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium
Canterbury Bulldogs 13 - St George Illawarra Dragons 10
The Canterbury Bulldogs suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend, but they are still clear favourites to return to winning form against a struggling St George Illawarra.
The Bulldogs never showed up against the Cowboys and Des Hasler would have left no stone un-turned this week in order to help his side bounce back from their worst performance of the season to date.
The good news for Bulldogs fans is that their record on the back of a loss is 7-2 and they have the same record as home favourites, while they are only 3-6 against the line in this scenario.
The St George Illawarra Dragons have really felt the loss of Josh Dugan to injury and they go into this clash on the back of two losses to the Gold Coast Titans and the Wests Tigers.
St George have a very poor 1-8 record as away underdogs and they are 3-6 against the line in this situation.
The Canterbury Bulldogs are clearly the team to beat in this contest, but there is no value at their current price and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers
Saturday 30 July, 7:50pm, Mt Smart Stadium
New Zealand Warriors 20 - Penrith Panthers 16
This is a crucial game for both sides as the New Zealand Warriors can leapfrog the Penrith Panthers to move into the top eight with a victory this weekend.
The New Zealand Warriors will go into this clash on the back of a pair of golden point losses to the Manly Sea Eagles and Canberra Raiders and they will still start this clash as favourites with the benefit of the home ground advantage.
This has been a position in which they have struggled in the past 12 months – they have won just three of their past six game as home favourites and they are 1-5 against the line in this situation.
Penrith produced one of the best performances of their season to date to record a resounding victory over the Brisbane Broncos last weekend and they will go into this clash with plenty of confidence.
Young halfback Nathan Cleary has proven to be a revelation for the Panthers and they have only won two of their past eight games as away underdogs, but they are 5-3 against the line.
The Panthers are more than capable of getting the job done this weekend and I am very keen to back them with the insurance of the 3.5 points start.
Recommended Bet: Back The Panthers To Beat The Line (+3.5 Points)
Parramatta Eels vs West Tigers
Saturday 30 July, 5:30pm, ANZ Stadium
Parramatta Eels 8 - Wests Tigers 23
Off-field turmoil has finally caught up with the Parramatta Eels and they will go into this clash against the Wests Tigers as clear underdogs.
The Eels were competitive against the Penrith Panthers, but they gave up the fight very quickly against the Gold Coast Titans.
There is some data to suggest that the Eels are capable of recording an upset victory – they have won nine of their past 16 games as underdogs – but it is tough to trust this side from a betting perspective.
Jason Taylor’s decision to drop Robbie Farah was justified somewhat when the Wests Tigers recorded a comfortable victory over St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and he has left him out of the team once again.
The Tigers are sure to take plenty of confidence from their performance against the Dragons, but they are just 3-7 on the back of a win and their record as favourites is far from convincing.
I am willing to give the Eels the chance to return to winning form this weekend and they are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 7.5 points.
Recommended Bet: Back The Parramatta Eels To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday 30 July, 7:50pm, 1300Smiles Stadium
North Queensland Cowboys 8 - Melbourne Storm 16
This is likely to be a finals preview between two legitimate Premiership contenders, but this game has been soured somewhat by the fact that Johnathan Thurston will likely miss the fixture due to a hamstring injury.
There is no player in the NRL that is more important to their side than Thurston is to the North Queensland Cowboys and there is no doubt that his withdrawal has changed the complexion of this clash.
In saying that, the Cowboys were able to do the job comfortably in the second half against the Canterbury Bulldogs after Thurston went off due to injury and their record in front of their home fans is nothing short of outstanding – they have won 12 out of their past 13 games at the venue and they are 8-5 against the line.
The Melbourne Storm continued their stellar season with a professional performance against the Sydney Roosters and they can keep the pressure on the Cronulla Sharks at the top of the ladder with a victory over the Cowboys.
The Storm did beat the Cowboys 15-14 when they did battle at Suncorp Stadium earlier this season and their record as away favourites is nothing short of outstanding – they have won six of their past seven games in this situation and they are 4-2 against the line.
There is plenty to like about both these teams and I expect this to be a very exciting clash, but until Thurston is definitely ruled out of contention I am not willing to suggest any betting plays.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders
Sunday 31 July, 2:00pm, ANZ Stadium
South Sydney Rabbitohs 4 - Canberra Raiders 54
The South Sydney Rabbitohs have taken out six of the last eight games against Canberra, but it is the Raiders that will start this clash as clear favourites.
The Rabbitohs continued their horror run of form with a loss to the Manly Sea Eagles last Monday Night and they have now lost seven games on the trot.
South Sydney have now lost their past six games as home underdogs and almost unbelievably they have an identical record against the line.
Canberra survived another scare to claim a golden point victory over the New Zealand Warriors last weekend and they have now won seven of their past eight games.
The problem for the Raiders in this clash is that their record as away favourites is very underwhelming – they have won just one of their past four games in this situation and their record against the line is also very poor.
The one betting market that does stand out is the total points betting markets as both these teams are better with the ball in hand than they are defensively.
The over has saluted in eight of the past 13 home games played by the South Sydney Rabbitohs, while the over has been a profitable betting play in Raiders games this weekend.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 45.5 Points
Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights
Sunday 31 July, 4:00pm, Brookvale Oval
Manly Sea Eagles 36 - Newcastle Knights 16
The Manly Sea Eagles made it three wins on the trot with their victory over the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Monday night and they have an excellent chance to score a fourth straight win when they face the Newcastle Knights on Sunday.
Manly’s record at Brookvale Oval has been very poor in the past 12 months and they have won just two of their past five games as home favourites, while they have an identical record against the line.
The Knights took a step backwards against the Cronulla Sharks following two tough efforts against the Canberra Raiders and the Melbourne Storm.
It is tough to see the Knights turning around their form at this stage of the season and they have won just two of their past 12 games as away underdogs, while they are 4-8 against the line in this scenario.
This really is Manly’s game to win, but there is no value at their current odds and the line of 17.5 points does seem excessive for a side that has struggled to score points during the 2016 NRL season.
Recommended Bet: No Bet
Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks
Monday 1 August, 7:00pm, Cbus Super Stadium
The Cronulla Sharks continued their stellar winning streak with an entertaining victory over the Newcastle Knights last weekend and they can make it 16 wins in a row when they face the Gold Coast Titans on Monday night.
The pressure of the winning streak does not appear to be catching up with the Sharks and they have continued to play their surprisingly attacking style of rugby league in the past month.
There is no doubt that the Sharks are one of the best betting teams in the entire NRL and their record as away favourites is close to flawless – they have won their past six games in this scenario and they are 5-1 against the line.
Gold Coast solidified their place in the top eight with a comfortable win over the Parramatta last weekend and they now have an excellent chance of making a surprise finals appearance.
The Titans have proven to be a reliable betting proposition in front of their home fans and they have won three of their past six games as home underdogs, while they are 4-2 against the line.
While I have plenty of respect for the Titans, there is no stopping the Cronulla juggernaut and I don’t think that the line of six points will be anywhere near enough.
Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Beat The Line (-6 Points)