2024 State Of Origin Game 3 Preview

A pair of blowout victories has set the stage for a fascinating, fiery decider at Suncorp Stadium to conclude the 2024 State of Origin series.

Queensland took out game one in Sydney 38-10 after Joseph Sua’ali’i was sent off in the eighth minute, while NSW squared up 38-18 after a near-perfect first half at the MCG.

Both sides have been hit with backline injury blows ahead of game three, where the Maroons are narrow favourites in State of Origin betting to clinch their fourth series win in five years at home.

 The Blues deserve to take plenty of confidence into the decider after their complete and utter dismantling of the Maroons in the opening 40 minutes in Melbourne.  

NSW bullied the champs through the middle – with Payne Haas finally putting his stamp on the Origin arena – while Mitch Moses produced the performance of his life after getting called up as his state’s No.7 saviour to lead them to an Origin halftime record 34-0 scoreline. 

Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Brian To’o and Zac Lomax were devastating on the edges.  

Mitchell’s presence, in particular, seemed to elevate the Blues’ confidence and swagger, but injury has claimed the strike centre in a huge blow. Newcastle’s Bradman Best enjoyed a stellar two-try debut in last year’s dead-rubber and is a game-breaker, but won’t scare Queensland quite like Latrell.  

The Blues’ only other change is an inspired one: Warriors hardman Mitch Barnett could not be denied and replaces Haumole Olakau’atu, providing a bit more versatility and starch.  

The Maroons will be encouraged by not getting completely blown away at the MCG, winning the second half 18-4. They eventually found ways to the tryline but their attack was very lateral, relying very heavily on the speed of Reece Walsh on the edges; more variety and directness will be required on Wednesday.  

With wingers Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi out injured, Billy Slater has recalled Selwyn Cobbo on one flank and brought in Origin specialist Dane Gagai at centre with Valentine Holmes moving to the wing. If anything, that three-quarter-line – including Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (nine tries in seven Origins) – looks more formidable. 

The historical Origin decider stats make daunting reading for the Blues. In 22 game three clashes where the series has still been alive, Queensland has won 15 times to NSW’s five, with two drawn (the Maroons retained the shield on both occasions as the current holders).  

Meanwhile, the Blues have won just two of 13 Suncorp Stadium-hosted deciders; their victories on enemy soil came in 1994 and 2005. The most recent decider was a 22-12 epic won by Queensland in 2022.  

The Maroons’ overall record in Queensland is 40-21-1, while they have won 15 of the last 18 Origins in the Suncorp cauldron – including six of the last seven. 

The last eight Origins in Brisbane have produced totals of 38 points or less. The scale of the MCG result shouldn’t unduly concern the Maroons: on the eight occasions a team has lost game two by 16-plus to force a decider, they’ve either won game three or lost by six points or less.  

NSW did an outstanding job cutting down Daly Cherry-Evans’ and Reece Walsh’s time with the football in game two.   

But it’s hard to imagine the Blues being able to replicate that first-half ambush at Suncorp. The Maroons have been in this situation at home so many times and always find a way. Another classic looms – but it looks likely to again fall Queensland’s way. 

Tip: Back Queensland to Win by 1-12 @ $2.90 

First Try Scorer: Dane Gagai (Queensland) 

Man of the Match: Reece Walsh (Queensland) 

SAME GAME MULTI: QUEENSLAND WIN / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $42.20 

2023

The State of Origin series has already been decided with a match to spare, but the ferocity of the competition between emphatic winners Queensland and embattled New South Wales ensures Wednesday’s upcoming ‘dead-rubber’ entails no shortage of interest or fire.

This is only the 19th of 42 Origin series that hasn’t featured a game three decider.

Perhaps even more remarkably, just seven 3-0 clean sweeps have been completed – meaning on 12 occasions the state which lost the opening two games salvaged pride with a victory in the last clash.

Amazingly, only one of the past 22 series finished in a whitewash: Queensland’s 2010 triumph amid its record-breaking eight-year reign.

Current coach Billy Slater was man-of-the-match as the Maroons won Game 3 in Sydney that year – and his charges are in prime position to repeat the feat.

Game 1 is destined for Origin folklore, Queensland coming from behind with two late tries despite having a man in the sin-bin to win an Adelaide thriller 26-18.

Heading into a do-or-die game two assignment in Brisbane without linchpin Nathan Cleary and first-choice hooker Api Koroisau, NSW crashed to a series-sealing 32-6 loss.

In a repeat of the series opener, the Blues squandered stacks of scoring opportunities courtesy of clunky and one-dimensional attack.

Tom Trbojevic’s game-ending injury just three minutes in – with bench hooker Damien Cook controversially used to slot in out wide – stymied NSW, but Brad Fittler’s problems run far deeper.

The Maroons’ ability to pile on tries with limited good ball has been outstanding.

Valentine Holmes bagged a double in game two, fellow centre Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has three tries for the series, Selwyn Cobbo notched a brace in game one and replacement Xavier Coates crossed at Suncorp Stadium.

Cameron Munster came up clutch in Adelaide, Daly Cherry-Evans played arguably his finest hand at Origin level in Brisbane and rookie fullback Reece Walsh was among the top two or three players across the two matches.

But it was wholehearted forwards Reuben Cotter and Lindsay Collins who collected the man-of-the-match awards, outperforming their big-name counterparts in sky blue with myriad match-turning plays based on pure effort.

Under-fire Fittler and his selectors have named a confusing game three line-up caught between looking towards the future and trying to rescue a win from the 2023 wreckage.

The 33-year-old Cody Walker is recalled at the expense of Jarome Luai to partner Mitch Moses in the halves.

Jake Trojbevic returns from injury, teaming up in the front-row with Reagan Campbell-Gillard, who has come in for dumped clubmate Junior Paulo while Payne Haas is out injured.

Clint Gutherson comes onto a small bench with another recalled player, Jacob Saifiti.

Centre Bradman Best was a contentious debut selection, while second-rower Keaon Koloamatagi’s maiden call-up was more universally well-received.

For Queensland, the suspended Walsh is replaced by AJ Brimson, who played three games in 2020-21, and Corey Horsburgh has earned a popular debut call-up for the injured Tom Flegler.

The Blues have a 20-10 record at Accor Stadium, winning three of the last four encounters in their backyard.

But the Maroons pulled off a major upset there in the most recent clash, a 16-10 result in the 2022 series opener with Munster at his talismanic best.

Only one of the last 10 matches at the venue were decided by more than six points. Eleven of the last 13 produced totals of 34 points or less.

Queensland look a touch weaker without Walsh, but it’s highly debatable whether the wide-ranging changes NSW has made makes the side any stronger than the line-ups that bumbled their way through the opening two matches.

Their only proven Origin match-winner, skipper James Tedesco, is horribly out of sorts – though Cook could provide the game-breaking spark the Blues have been missing if he gets a decent chance at dummy-half this time.

Even as a $1.65 favourite, the Maroons are the value option on the road – their performances so far in the series offer no hint of a team that will let any complacency creep in or take their foot off the pedal.

A 3-0 result seems to mean more to them than preventing it does to the beleaguered Blues.

Tip: Back Queensland to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $1.90

First Try Scorer: David Fifita @ $16

Man of the Match: Daly Cherry-Evans @ $10

SAME GAME MULTI: QUEENSLAND 1-12 / UNDER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / VALENTIME HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRIAN TO’O ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $55.87

2022

The scene is set for an epic 2022 State of Origin decider, NSW bouncing back hard from a disappointing 16-10 series-opening loss at home with an emphatic 44-12 game two victory in Perth.

But will the Suncorp Stadium factor tip the scales back in the favour of the underdog Queenslanders?

Despite criticism of some perceived kneejerk changes from coach Brad Fittler, the Blues addressed their game one shortcomings impressively.

They dominated the middle of the field – with inspirational Jake Trbojevic’s return for NSW and Reuben Cotter’s absence for Queensland proving crucial – and Nathan Cleary produced a man-of-the-match display on the back of it.

But it wasn’t the demoralising blowout the scoreboard made it appear.

The Maroons led 12-8 as Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga picked up where they left off in game one, before Felise Kaufusi’s sin-binning swung the match.

The Blues took the ascendancy with ruthless efficiency and a weary Maroons side let in some uncharacteristically soft tries with the result already decided.

NSW has been forced into a crucial front-row change for the decider, with Payne Haas ruled out due to injury. Initial replacement Jordan McLean subsequently succumbed to injury on Thursday, handing Newcastle’s Jacob Saifiti a debut.

Game one stud Jack Wighton – rubbed out of the Perth match by COVID – was contentiously left out of the Blues’ 17, with Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton retained in the centres and fellow Origin rookie Siosifa Talakai keeping his place on the bench.

Queensland game-breakers Munster and Ponga missed their clubs’ Round 17 matches but have been passed fit. The Maroons’ only change sees 14-game veteran Kaufusi (family leave) replaced in the starting line-up by Jeremiah Nanai, with yet another Cowboy rookie, Tom Gilbert, called up to the bench for his Origin debut.

The historical Origin decider stats make daunting reading for the Blues. In 21 game three clashes where the series has still been alive, Queensland has won 14 times to NSW’s five, with two drawn (the Maroons retained the shield on both occasions as the current holders).

Meanwhile, the Blues have won just two of 12 Suncorp Stadium-hosted deciders; their victories on enemy soil came in 1994 and 2005. The Maroons’ overall record in Queensland is 38-21-1, while they have won 13 of the last 16 Origins in the Suncorp cauldron.

The last six Origins in Brisbane have produced totals of 32 points or less. The scale of the Perth result shouldn’t unduly concern the Maroons: on the seven occasions a team has lost game two by 16-plus to force a decider, they’ve either won game three or lost by six points or less.

Save for the last 25 minutes of game two, it’s been an overwhelmingly tight, hard-fought series. The Brisbane factor is anything but a myth and winning a decider there is a new frontier for this batch of Blues.

If Queensland can at least forge an even share of possession and territory via an improved engine-room effort – and the likes of Josh Papalii and Lindsay Collins are the key here – Munster, DCE, Hunt and Ponga possess the big-game chops required to ride the home crowd to victory.

Tip: Back Queensland to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points) @ $1.90

First Try Scorer: James Tedesco

Man of the Match: Cameron Munster @ $6.00

SAME GAME MULTI: QUEENSLAND BY 1-12 / UNDER 38.5 POINTS / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRY SCORER @ $18.28

2021 State of Origin Game 3

State of Origin Game 3 will take place on the Gold Coast this Wednesday night following the COVID outbreak in Sydney.

While the Blues would have undoubtedly loved to have played for their first State of Origin series sweep in 21 years in front of a packed out Stadium Australia, they will surely take some solace in the fact they could complete a clean sweep in a series with every game getting played in Queensland.

Brad Fittler’s men have been without a doubt the dominant force in this series winning Game 1 in Townsville 50-6 before shutting out the Maroons at Suncorp Stadium in Game 2, 26-0.

Can they cap a remarkable month and a half and give Blues supporters something else to gloat about?

Find out who we are tipping in our 2021 State of Origin Game 3 Preview below.

2021 State of Origin Game 3 Teams

Head to Head & Line Betting

Game 1 saw the Blues installed as -4.5 favourites over the Maroons before that number blew out to -13.5 in Game 2.

For the series finale, the line currently sits at New South Wales -12, perhaps in part due to the match having to be relocated twice thus far.

The other big question mark over New South Wales is regarding their halves pairing with the star of the season Nathan Cleary and his partner in crime Jarome Luai both set to miss this game.

They have been replaced by Jack Wighton and Mitchell Moses who some punters may be keen to take on.

Not me however, the Maroons have also had a disrupted build up with Paul Green making several changes to his side with nothing to lose and then being forced into two more in the build up to the game.

David Fifita will be serving a one game ban while Jai Arrow has been removed for his much publicised off field indiscretion.

You could talk yourself into a wounded Maroons side trying to salvage some pride and putting together a performance that at least keeps the game close but this Blues team just looks too good to blow it.

Tip: Back New South Wales to Cover -12 @ $2.00

Total Points

Similar to Game 2, the total points line for State of Origin Game 3 is set in the mid-40’s with the number currently at 46.5.

It is a reasonable assumption to make that both teams will be happy to throw the ball around on Wednesday night with the forecast suggesting dry conditions.

How you approach this market really comes down to what you expect from Queensland considering they have scored a grand total of six points over 160 minutes this series.

While the inclusion of Kalyn Ponga should add some vigour to Queensland’s attack, and the potential “all or nothing” approach could see them finally score another try, I just can’t bring myself to back it.

Instead of the overall match total, I’ll back the individual team totals instead as the Blues close out the series with another resounding victory.

Tips: New South Wales Over 28.5 Points @ $1.92, Queensland Under 16.5 Points @ $1.83

First Try Scorer

Thus far this season, it has been Tom Trbojevic and Josh Addo-Carr saluting for punters as the first try scorers.

Those two, along with Brian To’o have been installed as the three leading favourites in our First Try Scorer market for Game 3 and you would be well served to back each of them.

However after a dominant showing in Game 2, I’m going to back Latrell Mitchell as the first try scorer from New South Wales, although it is tough to go wrong with most of the Blues team.

On the Maroons side they are not short of talent and Ponga will finally get a chance to have his say in the 2021 Origin arena.

While he may still be looking for his first Origin try, this is as good of a chance as he will get to break his duck.

Tips: Latrell Mitchell First Try Scorer @ $12.00, Kalyn Ponga First Try Scorer @ $17.00

Man of the Match

With all due respect to Queensland and its players, this is going to focus more on the guys wearing blue.

Tommy Turbo was Man of the Match in Game 1 after his hat-trick in Townsville and is a decent shout as a $6 co-favourite with James Tedesco, who won it in Game 2.

With the way New South Wales has performed this series however, it would not be at all surprising if Mitch Moses came in and played the game of his life.

If you are looking for a value bet he is a worthwhile option.

Tips: Tom Trbojevic @ $6.00, Mitchell Moses @ $15.00

2020

Suncorp Stadium will play host to its first rubber match since 2017 on Wednesday night when the Maroons and the Blues settle this year’s State of Origin score once and for all.

Queensland coach Wayne Bennett will have to pull another rabbit out of his hat following last week’s beatdown in New South Wales that has also left star five-eighth Cameron Munster in doubt for Game 3.

The Blues, meanwhile, have opened as heavy favourites in betting once again after Josh Addo-Carr, Nathan Cleary and James Tedesco crippled the Maroons’ defence from start to finish.

Can Queensland pull off another miracle on their home turf? Or is this New South Wales’ to lose?

Find out who we’re tipping our 2020 State of Origin Game 3 Preview below!

2020 State of Origin Game 3 Teams

Head to Head & Line Betting

Queensland has been gifted a +6.5 head start by the bookies, a slightly slimmer margin than we saw heading into Game 2.

It’s likely the bookies are factoring in the Suncorp advantage this time around, a venue the Blues haven’t won at since their Game 1 victory way back in 2017.

As mentioned earlier, Munster remains a wait-and-see for Queensland after suffering a head knock in Game 2 that saw him leave the field in the opening minutes.

The Maroons are also sweating the judiciary charges on lock Tino Fa’asuamaleaui following his scuffle with Payne Haas last week.

There is good news for Queensland up front though with Christian Welch set to play after missing Game 2 with a concussion.

Welch played a big part defensively during the win in Adelaide and should provide plenty of tackling help after the Maroons were carved up by Tedesco and Addo-Carr last week.

On the Blues’ side, Brad Fittler has very little to work do after his team resembled a well-oiled machine last week in their 34-10 win.

The only potential move coming from Blues camp will be out on the wing if Josh Addo-Carr is deemed unfit to play, although that seems unlikely based on most reports.

Although Xavier Coates opened the scoring last week in Sydney, Queensland were always going to face an uphill battle after Munster left the field.

Fortunately, Munster actually passed his HIA last week, meaning there’s a strong chance we see him suit up for this decider.

This Blues outfit is easily one of the most talented we’ve ever seen, but as we saw last Wednesday, the home crowd can really play a part in these must-win games.

With Munster back and a partisan crowd behind them, we’re tipping Queensland to bounce-back from last week’s thrashing and at least keep this one respectable.

Tip: Back Queensland to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

Total Points

There is some rain forecast for Brisbane on Tuesday, but considering Suncorp’s drainage system is one of the best in the country, it’s unlikely it affects Game 3.

In terms of recent history, the last Origin game at Suncorp to result in over 40 points occurred back in 2016, so you have to like the Under again in this scenario.

Munster’s potential return should help boost the Queensland defence, while the Maroons were obviously lacking some of the firepower they showed in Game 1 last week without A.J. Brimson.

Tip: Under 40.5 Total Points @ $1.90

First Try Scorer

Xavier Coates has scored in each of the last two games, so if you fancy a Queenslander to find the line first, he’s probably the safest choice.

Kurt Capewell was one of the standouts from Game 2 last week for the Maroons where he finished with over 150 metres to his name and a few tackle breaks. He isn’t a known try scorer, but might be worth a look if you’re after one at odds.

Josh Addo-Carr has been an absolute machine up in Queensland this year scoring a combined 12 tries across Suncorp and the Sunshine Coast.

If the Foxx does play, you’d be mad not to back him to score first.

The other obvious name worth considering for the Blues is James Tedesco.

The captain was pretty quiet in Game 1, but he led New South Wales in run metres last week whilst also adding a crucial try in the first half.

Teddy is playing with a real sense of confidence now and it wouldn’t be surprising to watch him burst over the line in the early stages.

Tip: Xavier Coates, Josh Addo-Carr

Man of the Match

We tipped the Foxx for Man of the Match honours last week before he was basically robbed by Nathan Cleary.

Based on the fact he scored three tries in four games at Suncorp during the home/away season though, Addo-Carr looks a good bet to cap off the series on a high note.

If you fancy a Queensland victory, you have to like Dane Gagai.

We’ve heard all series about how great an Origin player he is, and although he hasn’t found the try line this year, he’s been phenomenal setting up several scoring opportunities whilst knuckling down defensively with some important tackles.

Gaga scored a double in Game 1 last year at Suncorp on his way to winning Man of the Match, so there’s a good chance history might repeat itself.

Tip: Josh Addo-Carr, Dane Gagai

2019

For the first time since 2013, State of Origin Game 3 will be decided in Sydney.

The Blues are favoured heavily to defend their title following Kalyn Ponga’s omission, but the late withdrawal of Nathan Cleary has thrown a spanner into the works.

After a Queensland fightback in Game 1 and a Blues blowout in Game 2, Wednesday night’s decider is one of the most highly anticipated Origin games in history.

The State of Origin odds suggest it might be a foregone conclusion, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t tremendous value to be had on a variety of markets.

As always, you can find all our best bets in our 2019 State of Origin Game 3 Preview below.

Head to Head Betting

The Blues find themselves as the short-priced favourites following their Game 2 whitewash over the Maroons. Coach Brad Fittler won’t be getting ahead of himself with the series on the line though – especially considering the Maroons have won three of their last five trips to Sydney.

The game isn’t played on paper, but New South Wales looks a class above Queensland. Like the Maroons, the Blues are dealing with a handful of injuries, but their depth should prove too much for Queensland if every man does his job.

The Trbojevic brothers starred in Game 2, particularly Tom, who chipped in with a hat-trick of tries in the 38-6 victory. Jake, on the other hand, won Man of the Match honours with his efforts in defence.

Queensland coach Kevin Walters has his hands full with the pair, but he needs to be careful not to over-complicate things. Paying too much attention to the deadly duo could leave Queensland’s backs vulnerable to the speedy trio of James Tedesco, Josh Addo-Carr and Blake Ferguson.

For the Maroons to win this, they need a hero to step up. In Game 1 it was Dane Gagai, while the rain in Perth extinguished any spark and momentum Queensland had on the neutral turf.

You could argue Daly Cherry-Evans holds the key to Queensland’s hopes, but Cameron Munster is certainly the man in the spotlight. After a pair of flat performances in Games 1 and 2, Kalyn Ponga’s replacement needs to play the game of his life.

Queensland lost back-to-back Origin games for the first time in over a decade last year, but history might repeat itself again on Wednesday night.

New South Wales can control this game if they challenge Munster with long bombs, while another dominant performance from James Maloney at five-eighth should put the icing on the cake.

Betting wise, the odds are a little too short on the Blues straight-up, so you will have to look at the Margin Market for some value. Four of the last five Origin Game 3’s in Sydney have been decided by 1-12 points.

Tip: New South Wales to Win @ $1.40 or New South Wales 1-12 @ $2.80

Total Points Betting

Despite the Game 2 blowout, the bookies have chosen to set the same Total for the third game in a row.

Game 1 fell just Under, while the wet conditions in Perth brought a surprisingly high-scoring game.

With the series on the line, you can expect both sides to play conservative football in the early stages on Wednesday night. Four of the last five Origin Game 3’s have fallen just Under 33.5 points, while the last 10 Origin games in Sydney have also fallen short of the same Total.

Tip: Under 33.5 Total Points @ $1.91

First Try Scorer

After successfully tipping Tom Trbojevic to score the First Try in Game 2, it’s worth using the same strategy ahead of the decider to try and find a winner.

Backing players that have recently performed well at club level is always a successful strategy, and Blake Ferguson just so happens to fall into that category.

Parramatta’s third-leading try scorer scored a double on either side of halftime during the Eels’ 22-16 win over the Raiders last week, and as he now prepares for his 10^th game in Blue, he’s certainly overdue to score his first Origin try.

New South Wales holds a clear advantage on the wing with considerably more speed than Queensland. If the Maroons spend too much time defending Josh Addo-Carr, don’t be surprised if it leaves Ferguson a window to score.

Tip: Blake Ferguson First Try Scorer @ $8.00

Man of the Match

Jake Trbojevic upset more than a few multi’s in Game 2, but you’d be wise to stick with one of the favourites for Man of the Match honours in the decider.

Damien Cook was huge a fortnight ago leading the Blues in tackles made, something he’s been doing all year at club level for the Rabbitohs.

The 28-year-old racked up 56 tackles during the Bunnies’ loss to the Tigers last week, and if the Blues’ forwards wind up rolling through Queensland’s defence once again, you can bet Cook will have something to do with it.

Tip: Damien Cook Man of the Match @ $7.00

Stage of Origin Game 3 Teams

2018

The third game of the 2018 State Of Origin series will be held at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday July 11 and New South Wales are clear favourites to complete a cleansweep.

The Blues have not won a series 3-0 since their memorable victory in 2000 and they were perhaps on the lucky side to come away with the win in Game 2 a few weeks ago.

Can New South Wales complete their first cleansweep in almost 20 years or will Queensland fight back to claim something from this series?

We have analysed both sides and our complete 2018 State Of Origin Game 3 tips can be found below.

State Of Origin Game 3 Betting

It is New South Wales that will go into this clash as favourites, but there is nowhere near as much between the two sides in betting as there was ahead of the first two games of the season.

New South Wales are favourites at a quote of $1.65 and Queensland are at $2.30, while the line is only 3.5 points.

New South Wales to win by 1-12 points is considered the most likely option at $2.63 from New South Wales 13+ at $3.40, Queensland 1-12 at $3.40 and Queensland 13+ at $7.

State Of Origin Game 3 Tips

Head To Head Betting

New South Wales have won the first two games of the series to secure the 2018 State Of Origin series, but neither win has been convincing and there hasn’t been as much between these two sides as there was expected to be at the start of the series.

Poor decision-making let Queensland down at key moments in the second game of the series and most of the public blame for that was placed at the feet of Ben Hunt.

Queensland coach Kevin Walters clearly agrees with that as Hunt has been dropped to the bench for the recalled Daly Cherry-Evans, who has not played State Of Origin since 2015.

This is a huge challenge for Cherry-Evans and if he doesn’t perform he will likely never get another opportunity in this arena.

The major issue for Queensland is injuries and they will go into this clash without captain Greg Inglis, Dylan Napa and Kalyn Ponga.

Inglis has been huge for the Maroons this series and challenges the depth of their already think backline and Ponga added an x-factor to the side, which they desperately need to deal with the explosive New South Wales backline.

New South Wales may have won the series, but I’m still not convinced that this young side have played to their potential and they could really open up now that the series has been secured.

Inglis has been able to keep the likes of James Roberts quiet during this season to date, but this will be a huge defensive challenge for Dane Gagai in the centres and I’m not sure that he is up for it.

The Queensland forwards work hard, but there are no real game-breakers – unlike New South Wales – and the Blues really do look like a safe bet to claim their first cleansweep since 2000.

The price available for a New South Wales win is serious value and the line of 3.5 points will not be enough.

Back New South Wales To Cover The Line (-3.5 Points)

First Try Scorer

Corey Oates ($10), James Tedesco ($10), Josh Addo-Carr ($10) and Valentine Holmes ($10) are locked in a battle for favourtism in our First Tryscorer betting market from Latrell Mitchell ($11) and Tom Trbojevic ($11).

James Roberts has been kept under wraps by Greg Inglis during the State Of Origin series to date and the absence of Inglis is a big positive for the Broncos flyer.

Dane Gagai is a much weaker defender than Roberts and it would not surprise to see him have an absolute field day.

Corey Oates has been recalled for Queensland and he does give the Maroons another weapon to target with their kicking game.

Daly Cherry-Evans does have an excellent short-kicking game when he is on and it would not surprise to see that pair combine for an early try.

Back James Roberts @ $13 & Corey Oates @ $10

Man Of The Match

Damien Cook is a clear favourite in our Man Of The Match betting market at a quote of $7 and he has been nothing short of outstanding for the Blues during the 2018 State Of Origin series.

Cameron Munster is on the second line of betting at $9 from Billy Slater, James Maloney and Nathan Cleary who are all at $10.

There is no doubt that the key-man for Queensland in this clash is Daly Cherry-Evans and if the Maroons are going to win this contest he simply must have a big game.

It could go either way for the controversial half-back, but the $17 available for him to be Man Of The Match is well and truly over the odds.

I said above that I believe this will be the chance that James Roberts has to shine and a two-try performance could have him in Man Of The Match calculations.

He is $51 in betting and I am more than happy to take that gamble.

Back Daly Cherry-Evans @ $17 & James Roberts @ $51

State Of Origin Game 3 Teams

Queensland Maroons

1. Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)
2. Valentine Holmes (Cronulla Sharks)
3. Dane Gagai (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
4. Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)
5. Corey Oates (Brisbane Broncos)
6. Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly Sea Eagles)
8. Jai Arrow (Gold Coast Titans)
9. Andrew McCullough (Brisbane Broncos)
10. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)
11. Gavin Cooper (North Queensland Cowboys)
12. Felise Kaufusi (Melbourne Storm)
13. Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)
14. Ben Hunt (Brisbane Broncos)
15. Coen Hess (North Queensland Cowboys)
16. Jarrod Wallace (Gold Coast Titans)
17. Tim Glasby (Melbourne Storm)

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco (Wests Tigers)
2. Tom Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)
3. Latrell Mitchell (Sydney Roosters)
4. James Roberts (Brisbane Broncos)
5. Josh Addo-Carr (Melbourne Storm)
6. James Maloney (Penrith Panthers)
7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
8. David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)
9. Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
10. Paul Vaughan (St George Illawarra Dragons)
11. Boyd Cordner (Sydney Roosters)
12. Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)
13. Jack de Belin (St George Illawarra Dragons)
14. Tariq Sims (St George Illawarra Dragons)
15. Jake Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)
16. Angus Crichton (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
17. Tyrone Peachey (Penrith Panthers)

2017

The third game of the 2017 State Of Origin Series will be held at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday July 12 and we are set for what will be a truly fascinating State Of Origin decider.

New South Wales dominated the opening game of the State Of Origin Series and looked as though they were cruising to another comfortable win in Game 2, but you can never count out Queensland and a second-half comeback kept the series alive.

Will New South Wales gain revenge for their second-half humbling or will Queensland record yet another famous State Of Origin win?

We have analysed both sides and our complete 2017 State Of Origin Game 3 tips can be found below.

State Of Origin Game 3 Betting

There has already been plenty of movement in our 2017 State Of Origin 3 betting market.

Queensland opened as narrow favourites following their remarkable comeback win in the second game of the series, but it has been one-way traffic for New South Wales since Johnathan Thurston was ruled out due to injury.

New South Wales are now $1.78 favourites to win just their second State Of Origin series in a decade, while Queensland are out to $2.05 to win in the absence of Thurston.

The line has been set at two points and the Total Points Over/Under is an extremely low 30.5 points.

State Of Origin Game 3 Tips

Head To Head Betting

This really has been an incredible State Of Origin Series.

New South Wales have had the upper hand for the majority of both games and really should be heading into this clash chasing a clean-sweep, but instead they must head to Suncorp Stadium and record another win in enemy territory.

It is fair to say that history is not in their favor.

There has been 18 State Of Origin deciders played since the series first went to three games in 1982 and Queensland have clearly had the upper hand – they have won 11 deciders, New South Wales have won five and there has been two draws.

Game 3 deciders outside of New South Wales make for even worse reading for Blues fans.

Queensland have won eight of the 11 State Of Origin deciders that have been played in either Queensland or Victoria and New South Wales have just the two wins.

While history is clearly not on their side, there is still plenty to like about this New South Wales side and they go into this clash as deserving favourites.

The big question will be whether they have learnt the lessons from game two.

New South Wales have been close to unstoppable when they look to go back through the middle of the Queensland forward pack, but have not had anywhere near as much success when they tried to go around their rivals.

It should not be forgotten that Queensland only narrowly beat New South Wales in Game 2 and that was without Johnathan Thurston in the side.

There is no doubt that Thurston was not 100 percent, but there is an argument to be made that he was the best half on the field and the pressure will be on either Michael Morgan or Cameron Munster.

New South Wales do have the strong forward pack and if they play to their game plan their is no doubt they will be very tough to beat, but you can never rule out this Queensland side as they simply find ways to win – especially in front of their home fans at Suncorp Stadium.

Back Queensland To Win @ $2.05

First Try Scorer

Brett Morris ($10) and Valentine Holmes ($10) are currently locked in a battle for favourtism in our First Try Scorer betting market from Blake Ferguson ($11), Dane Gagai ($11), James Tedesco ($12), Jarryd Hayne ($12) and Billy Slater ($13).

It really would not surprise if this was a very tense game early and that could mean that the first try comes from an unlikely source.

Queensland have a habit of getting the ball into the hands of their debutantes early and that gives them the opportunity to get on the scoreboard early – as we saw with Valentine Holmes in Game 2.

I expect Cameron Munster to line up in the centres, with Michael Morgan at five-eight, and that will ensure that Munster sees plenty of ball early.

Andrew Fifita was dominant in the opening game of the series and Queensland kept him contained in Game 2, but it is tough to see them stopping him two games in a row.

Fifita has shown on a number of occasions that he is incredibly tough to stop close to the line and he is good value to barge over for an early try at juicy odds.

Back Cameron Munster @ $19 & Andrew Fifita @ $26

Man Of The Match

Cameron Smith ($7) and James Tedesco ($7) are currently clear favourites in our State Of Origin Man Of The Match betting market from Andrew Fifita ($11), Cooper Cronk ($11), James Maloney ($11) and Mitchell Pearce ($11).

The absence of Johnathan Thurston means that there is plenty of pressure on Cooper Cronk and if Queensland are any chance of winning this game, Cronk is going to have to standout.

The $11 is definitely value, especially when Cameron Smith is as short as $7.

Queensland were able to keep Andrew Fifita under wraps during the second game of the 2017 State Of Origin Series, but doing that again will be much easier said than done.

Fifita was Man Of The Match in the opening game of the series, he was the best player on the field in the 2016 NRL Grand Final and he is a proven big game player.

Back Cooper Cronk @ $11 & Andrew Fifita @ $11

State Of Origin Game 3 Teams

Queensland Maroons

Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)

Valentine Holmes (Cronulla Sharks)

Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)

Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)

Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)

Michael Morgan (North Queensland Cowboys)

Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)

Dylan Napa (Sydney Roosters)

Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm)

Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)

Gavin Cooper (North Queensland Cowboys)

Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)

Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)

Bench

Ben Hunt (Brisbane Broncos)

Tim Glasby (Melbourne Storm)

Coen Hess (North Queensland Cowboys)

Jarrod Wallace (Gold Coast Titans)

New South Wales

James Tedesco (Wests Tigers)

Blake Ferguson (Sydney Roosters)

Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Jarryd Hayne (Gold Coast Titans)

Brett Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)

James Maloney (Cronulla Sharks)

Mitchell Pearce (Sydney Roosters)

Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)

Nathan Peats (Gold Coast Titans)

Andrew Fifita (Cronulla Sharks)

Josh Jackson (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Boyd Cordner (Sydney Roosters)

Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Bench

David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Wade Graham (Cronulla Sharks)

Jake Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)

Jack Bird (Cronulla Sharks)

The third game of the 2016 State Of Origin Series will be held at ANZ Stadium on Wednesday July 13.

Queensland wrapped up the 2016 State Of Origin Series with a professional victory in front of their home fans at Suncorp Stadium, but every State Of Origin game is important and the players will be just as committed either way.

There is still plenty to play for for both sides and we have analysed both teams as well as all the relevant stats to come up with the best State Of Origin betting plays for game three!

State Of Origin Game 3 Betting

Queensland may have secured the 2016 State Of Origin series, but it is New South Wales that are narrow favourites to deny their rivals a clean sweep and take something out of this series.

New South Wales are now available at State Of Origin odds of $1.82 to return to winning form at ANZ Stadium, while Queensland are $2 to complete just their second clean sweep since 1995.

The line is currently set at 1.5 points, while Queensland are available at a quote of $2.60 to win by 1-12.

State Of Origin Game 3 Tips

Head To Head Betting

We successfully predicted that Queensland would score a narrow victory over New South Wales in the opening game of the 2016 State Of Origin Series before claiming another victory in game two and we are confident that we will find the right betting plays again.

History was against New South Wales in Game 2, but it is Queensland that are up against the weight of historical results in this clash.

Queensland have won all three games in a State Of Origin Series just once since their historic victory in 1995 – despite the fact that they have won 10 of the past 11 series.

The Maroons completed the clean sweep in 2010, but they went into the final game of the series with a 2-0 lead in 2007 and 2009 and were unable to finish off the job.

Queensland have improved their record substantially at ANZ Stadium in the past decade and they have won the past two games at the venue, but they have never won a dead rubber at the venue and have not won a dead rubber in Sydney since 1988.

The Maroons still have a very strong team that is packed full of competitive players that will be desperate to complete a clean sweep, but whether they will be 100 percent motivated as they look towards the tail end of the NRL season remains to be seen.

Laurie Daley has still not picked the strongest team possible for New South Wales – Paul Gallen, Robbie Farah and James Tamou should all have been dropped – but the fact that James Tedesco is in the side and Jack Bird on the bench means that he is finally starting to look towards the future.

When you throw in the likes of Adam Reynolds, Tyson Frizell, Josh Jackson, Josh Mansour and Wade Graham you have a number of talented young players that will make up the bulk of this New South Wales side going forward and can secure their position in the squad with a good performance in this fixture.

There is no question that New South Wales have more to play for in this game and history suggests that they should be able to avoid the clean sweep with a game three victory.

Recommended Bet: Back New South Wales To Win @ $1.80

Margin Betting

New South Wales 1-12 ($2.60) is a narrow favourite from Queensland 1-12 ($2.75), New South Wales 13+ ($5.25) and Queensland 13+ ($5.50) in State Of Origin Game 3 Margin betting markets.

15 of the last 18 State Of Origin games have been decided by less than 12 points and there is very little to suggest that we won’t see another very close game on Wednesday night.

The past eight State Of Origin games won by New South Wales have been won by a margin of less than 13 points and they have not won by more than this margin since the final game of the 2007 State Of Origin Series.

In saying that, dead rubbers have generally been fairly one-sided contests in the modern era and three of the past four have had a final margin of 13 points or more.

Even if New South Wales plays close to their best, which I expect them to do, they are still no certainty to be able to put a big score on this very tough Queensland side and New South Wales to win by 1-12 is easily the safest betting play.

Recommended Bet: Back New South Wales (1-12) @ $2.60

First Try Scorer

Queensland have scored the first try in eight of the past 12 State Of Origin games, but it is New South Wales that I expect to come out firing in this game.

Debutants have an excellent record when it comes to scoring tries in State Of Origin and there is no debutant in this game that is poised to make a bigger impact than James Tedesco.

Tedesco has been in supreme try-scoring form for the Wests Tigers this season and he is a player with a great deal of confidence who won’t be afraid to take on the line in the early stages of his State Of Origin debut.

He is a great bet to score the first try at his current odds of $12.

The New South Wales forward that stands out as a value selection is Wade Graham.

Graham is one of the most skillful forwards in the NRL and his footwork can make him very dangerous close to the line, which makes him a great value bet at his current price of $29.

It is a couple of North Queensland Cowboys that offer the value for Queensland.

Johnathan Thurston scored first for the Cowboys against the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Sunday and it would not surprise to see him take on the line early against New South Wales.

He has scored first in a State Of Origin clash before and $21 is a big price.

Gavin Cooper is no certainty to start for Queensland, but there is no forward in the NRL that has a better try-scoring record.

Cooper has an outstanding chemistry with Thurston and it would not surprise if JT was extremely keen to put his great mate over the line!

He often starts as short as $13 in first try scorer betting markets and the $29 currently on offer is a great bet.

Recommended Bets: Back James Tedesco ($12), Wade Graham ($29), Johnathan Thurston ($21) and Gavin Cooper ($29) to score the first try.

Man Of The Match

State Of Origin Game 3 Teams

New South Wales

James  Tedesco (Wests Tigers)

Blake Ferguson (Sydney Roosters)

Michael Jennings (Parramatta Eels)

Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Josh Mansour (Penrith Panthers)

James Maloney (Cronulla Sharks)

Adam Reynolds (South Sydney Rabbitohs)

Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)

Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers)

Paul Gallen (Cronulla Sharks)

Wade Graham (Cronulla Sharks)

Josh Jackson (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Bench

Jack Bird (Cronulla Sharks)

James Tamou (North Queensland Cowboys)

David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Andrew Fifita (Cronulla Sharks)

Queensland Maroons

Darius Boyd (Brisbane Broncos)

Corey Oates (Brisbane Broncos)

Greg Inglis (South Sydney Rabbitohs)

Justin O’Neill (North Queensland Cowboys)

Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)

Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)

Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)

Matt Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)

Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm)

Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)

Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)

Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)

Corey Parker (Brisbane Broncos)

Bench

Gavin Cooper (North Queensland Cowboys)

Nate Myles (Manly Sea-Eagles)

Aidan Guerra (Sydney Roosters)

Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand Warriors)