2018 State Of Origin Game 3 Preview

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The third game of the 2018 State Of Origin series will be held at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday July 11 and New South Wales are clear favourites to complete a cleansweep.

The Blues have not won a series 3-0 since their memorable victory in 2000 and they were perhaps on the lucky side to come away with the win in Game 2 a few weeks ago.

Can New South Wales complete their first cleansweep in almost 20 years or will Queensland fight back to claim something from this series?

We have analysed both sides and our complete 2018 State Of Origin Game 3 tips can be found below.

NSW Blues Vs QLD Maroons

Wednesday 11 July, 8:00pm, Suncorp Stadium

State Of Origin Game 3 Betting

It is New South Wales that will go into this clash as favourites, but there is nowhere near as much between the two sides in betting as there was ahead of the first two games of the season.

New South Wales are favourites at a quote of $1.65 and Queensland are at $2.30, while the line is only 3.5 points.

New South Wales to win by 1-12 points is considered the most likely option at $2.63 from New South Wales 13+ at $3.40, Queensland 1-12 at $3.40 and Queensland 13+ at $7.

State Of Origin Game 3 Tips

Head To Head Betting

New South Wales have won the first two games of the series to secure the 2018 State Of Origin series, but neither win has been convincing and there hasn’t been as much between these two sides as there was expected to be at the start of the series.

Poor decision-making let Queensland down at key moments in the second game of the series and most of the public blame for that was placed at the feet of Ben Hunt.

Queensland coach Kevin Walters clearly agrees with that as Hunt has been dropped to the bench for the recalled Daly Cherry-Evans, who has not played State Of Origin since 2015.

This is a huge challenge for Cherry-Evans and if he doesn’t perform he will likely never get another opportunity in this arena.

The major issue for Queensland is injuries and they will go into this clash without captain Greg Inglis, Dylan Napa and Kalyn Ponga.

Inglis has been huge for the Maroons this series and challenges the depth of their already think backline and Ponga added an x-factor to the side, which they desperately need to deal with the explosive New South Wales backline.

New South Wales may have won the series, but I’m still not convinced that this young side have played to their potential and they could really open up now that the series has been secured.

Inglis has been able to keep the likes of James Roberts quiet during this season to date, but this will be a huge defensive challenge for Dane Gagai in the centres and I’m not sure that he is up for it.

The Queensland forwards work hard, but there are no real game-breakers – unlike New South Wales – and the Blues really do look like a safe bet to claim their first cleansweep since 2000.

The price available for a New South Wales win is serious value and the line of 3.5 points will not be enough.

Back New South Wales To Cover The Line (-3.5 Points)

First Try Scorer

Corey Oates ($10), James Tedesco ($10), Josh Addo-Carr ($10) and Valentine Holmes ($10) are locked in a battle for favourtism in our First Tryscorer betting market from Latrell Mitchell ($11) and Tom Trbojevic ($11).

James Roberts has been kept under wraps by Greg Inglis during the State Of Origin series to date and the absence of Inglis is a big positive for the Broncos flyer.

Dane Gagai is a much weaker defender than Roberts and it would not surprise to see him have an absolute field day.

Corey Oates has been recalled for Queensland and he does give the Maroons another weapon to target with their kicking game.

Daly Cherry-Evans does have an excellent short-kicking game when he is on and it would not surprise to see that pair combine for an early try.

Back James Roberts @ $13 & Corey Oates @ $10

Man Of The Match

Damien Cook is a clear favourite in our Man Of The Match betting market at a quote of $7 and he has been nothing short of outstanding for the Blues during the 2018 State Of Origin series.

Cameron Munster is on the second line of betting at $9 from Billy Slater, James Maloney and Nathan Cleary who are all at $10.

There is no doubt that the key-man for Queensland in this clash is Daly Cherry-Evans and if the Maroons are going to win this contest he simply must have a big game.

It could go either way for the controversial half-back, but the $17 available for him to be Man Of The Match is well and truly over the odds.

I said above that I believe this will be the chance that James Roberts has to shine and a two-try performance could have him in Man Of The Match calculations.

He is $51 in betting and I am more than happy to take that gamble.

Back Daly Cherry-Evans @ $17 & James Roberts @ $51

State Of Origin Game 3 Teams

Queensland Maroons

  1. Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)
  2. Valentine Holmes (Cronulla Sharks)
  3. Dane Gagai (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
  4. Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)
  5. Corey Oates (Brisbane Broncos)
  6. Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)
  7. Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly Sea Eagles)
  8. Jai Arrow (Gold Coast Titans)
  9. Andrew McCullough (Brisbane Broncos)
  10. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)
  11. Gavin Cooper (North Queensland Cowboys)
  12. Felise Kaufusi (Melbourne Storm)
  13. Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)
  14. Ben Hunt (Brisbane Broncos)
  15. Coen Hess (North Queensland Cowboys)
  16. Jarrod Wallace (Gold Coast Titans)
  17. Tim Glasby (Melbourne Storm)

New South Wales

  1. James Tedesco (Wests Tigers)
  2. Tom Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)
  3. Latrell Mitchell (Sydney Roosters)
  4. James Roberts (Brisbane Broncos)
  5. Josh Addo-Carr (Melbourne Storm)
  6. James Maloney (Penrith Panthers)
  7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
  8. David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)
  9. Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
  10. Paul Vaughan (St George Illawarra Dragons)
  11. Boyd Cordner (Sydney Roosters)
  12. Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)
  13. Jack de Belin (St George Illawarra Dragons)
  14. Tariq Sims (St George Illawarra Dragons)
  15. Jake Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)
  16. Angus Crichton (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
  17. Tyrone Peachey (Penrith Panthers)

2017

The third game of the 2017 State Of Origin Series will be held at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday July 12 and we are set for what will be a truly fascinating State Of Origin decider.

New South Wales dominated the opening game of the State Of Origin Series and looked as though they were cruising to another comfortable win in Game 2, but you can never count out Queensland and a second-half comeback kept the series alive.

Will New South Wales gain revenge for their second-half humbling or will Queensland record yet another famous State Of Origin win?

We have analysed both sides and our complete 2017 State Of Origin Game 3 tips can be found below.

NSW Blues Vs QLD Maroons

Wednesday 12 July, 8:05pm, ANZ Stadium

State Of Origin Game 3 Betting

There has already been plenty of movement in our 2017 State Of Origin 3 betting market.

Queensland opened as narrow favourites following their remarkable comeback win in the second game of the series, but it has been one-way traffic for New South Wales since Johnathan Thurston was ruled out due to injury.

New South Wales are now $1.78 favourites to win just their second State Of Origin series in a decade, while Queensland are out to $2.05 to win in the absence of Thurston.

The line has been set at two points and the Total Points Over/Under is an extremely low 30.5 points.

State Of Origin Game 3 Tips

Head To Head Betting

This really has been an incredible State Of Origin Series.

New South Wales have had the upper hand for the majority of both games and really should be heading into this clash chasing a clean-sweep, but instead they must head to Suncorp Stadium and record another win in enemy territory.

It is fair to say that history is not in their favor.

There has been 18 State Of Origin deciders played since the series first went to three games in 1982 and Queensland have clearly had the upper hand – they have won 11 deciders, New South Wales have won five and there has been two draws.

Game 3 deciders outside of New South Wales make for even worse reading for Blues fans.

Queensland have won eight of the 11 State Of Origin deciders that have been played in either Queensland or Victoria and New South Wales have just the two wins.

While history is clearly not on their side, there is still plenty to like about this New South Wales side and they go into this clash as deserving favourites.

The big question will be whether they have learnt the lessons from game two.

New South Wales have been close to unstoppable when they look to go back through the middle of the Queensland forward pack, but have not had anywhere near as much success when they tried to go around their rivals.

It should not be forgotten that Queensland only narrowly beat New South Wales in Game 2 and that was without Johnathan Thurston in the side.

There is no doubt that Thurston was not 100 percent, but there is an argument to be made that he was the best half on the field and the pressure will be on either Michael Morgan or Cameron Munster.

New South Wales do have the strong forward pack and if they play to their game plan their is no doubt they will be very tough to beat, but you can never rule out this Queensland side as they simply find ways to win – especially in front of their home fans at Suncorp Stadium.

Back Queensland To Win @ $2.05

First Try Scorer

Brett Morris ($10) and Valentine Holmes ($10) are currently locked in a battle for favourtism in our First Try Scorer betting market from Blake Ferguson ($11), Dane Gagai ($11), James Tedesco ($12), Jarryd Hayne ($12) and Billy Slater ($13).

It really would not surprise if this was a very tense game early and that could mean that the first try comes from an unlikely source.

Queensland have a habit of getting the ball into the hands of their debutantes early and that gives them the opportunity to get on the scoreboard early – as we saw with Valentine Holmes in Game 2.

I expect Cameron Munster to line up in the centres, with Michael Morgan at five-eight, and that will ensure that Munster sees plenty of ball early.

Andrew Fifita was dominant in the opening game of the series and Queensland kept him contained in Game 2, but it is tough to see them stopping him two games in a row.

Fifita has shown on a number of occasions that he is incredibly tough to stop close to the line and he is good value to barge over for an early try at juicy odds.

Back Cameron Munster @ $19 & Andrew Fifita @ $26

Man Of The Match

Cameron Smith ($7) and James Tedesco ($7) are currently clear favourites in our State Of Origin Man Of The Match betting market from Andrew Fifita ($11), Cooper Cronk ($11), James Maloney ($11) and Mitchell Pearce ($11).

The absence of Johnathan Thurston means that there is plenty of pressure on Cooper Cronk and if Queensland are any chance of winning this game, Cronk is going to have to standout.

The $11 is definitely value, especially when Cameron Smith is as short as $7.

Queensland were able to keep Andrew Fifita under wraps during the second game of the 2017 State Of Origin Series, but doing that again will be much easier said than done.

Fifita was Man Of The Match in the opening game of the series, he was the best player on the field in the 2016 NRL Grand Final and he is a proven big game player.

Back Cooper Cronk @ $11 & Andrew Fifita @ $11

State Of Origin Game 3 Teams

Queensland Maroons

Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)

Valentine Holmes (Cronulla Sharks)

Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)

Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)

Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)

Michael Morgan (North Queensland Cowboys)

Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)

Dylan Napa (Sydney Roosters)

Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm)

Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)

Gavin Cooper (North Queensland Cowboys)

Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)

Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)

Bench

Ben Hunt (Brisbane Broncos)

Tim Glasby (Melbourne Storm)

Coen Hess (North Queensland Cowboys)

Jarrod Wallace (Gold Coast Titans)

New South Wales

James Tedesco (Wests Tigers)

Blake Ferguson (Sydney Roosters)

Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Jarryd Hayne (Gold Coast Titans)

Brett Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)

James Maloney (Cronulla Sharks)

Mitchell Pearce (Sydney Roosters)

Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)

Nathan Peats (Gold Coast Titans)

Andrew Fifita (Cronulla Sharks)

Josh Jackson (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Boyd Cordner (Sydney Roosters)

Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Bench

David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Wade Graham (Cronulla Sharks)

Jake Trbojevic (Manly Sea Eagles)

Jack Bird (Cronulla Sharks)


The third game of the 2016 State Of Origin Series will be held at ANZ Stadium on Wednesday July 13.

Queensland wrapped up the 2016 State Of Origin Series with a professional victory in front of their home fans at Suncorp Stadium, but every State Of Origin game is important and the players will be just as committed either way.

There is still plenty to play for for both sides and we have analysed both teams as well as all the relevant stats to come up with the best State Of Origin betting plays for game three!

NSW Blues Vs QLD Maroons

Wednesday 13 July, 8:05pm, ANZ Stadium

State Of Origin Game 3 Betting

Queensland may have secured the 2016 State Of Origin series, but it is New South Wales that are narrow favourites to deny their rivals a clean sweep and take something out of this series.

New South Wales are now available at State Of Origin odds of $1.82 to return to winning form at ANZ Stadium, while Queensland are $2 to complete just their second clean sweep since 1995.

The line is currently set at 1.5 points, while Queensland are available at a quote of $2.60 to win by 1-12.

State Of Origin Game 3 Tips

Head To Head Betting

We successfully predicted that Queensland would score a narrow victory over New South Wales in the opening game of the 2016 State Of Origin Series before claiming another victory in game two and we are confident that we will find the right betting plays again.

History was against New South Wales in Game 2, but it is Queensland that are up against the weight of historical results in this clash.

Queensland have won all three games in a State Of Origin Series just once since their historic victory in 1995 – despite the fact that they have won 10 of the past 11 series.

The Maroons completed the clean sweep in 2010, but they went into the final game of the series with a 2-0 lead in 2007 and 2009 and were unable to finish off the job.

Queensland have improved their record substantially at ANZ Stadium in the past decade and they have won the past two games at the venue, but they have never won a dead rubber at the venue and have not won a dead rubber in Sydney since 1988.

The Maroons still have a very strong team that is packed full of competitive players that will be desperate to complete a clean sweep, but whether they will be 100 percent motivated as they look towards the tail end of the NRL season remains to be seen.

Laurie Daley has still not picked the strongest team possible for New South Wales – Paul Gallen, Robbie Farah and James Tamou should all have been dropped – but the fact that James Tedesco is in the side and Jack Bird on the bench means that he is finally starting to look towards the future.

When you throw in the likes of Adam Reynolds, Tyson Frizell, Josh Jackson, Josh Mansour and Wade Graham you have a number of talented young players that will make up the bulk of this New South Wales side going forward and can secure their position in the squad with a good performance in this fixture.

There is no question that New South Wales have more to play for in this game and history suggests that they should be able to avoid the clean sweep with a game three victory.

 

Recommended Bet: Back New South Wales To Win @ $1.80

Margin Betting

New South Wales 1-12 ($2.60) is a narrow favourite from Queensland 1-12 ($2.75), New South Wales 13+ ($5.25) and Queensland 13+ ($5.50) in State Of Origin Game 3 Margin betting markets.

15 of the last 18 State Of Origin games have been decided by less than 12 points and there is very little to suggest that we won’t see another very close game on Wednesday night.

The past eight State Of Origin games won by New South Wales have been won by a margin of less than 13 points and they have not won by more than this margin since the final game of the 2007 State Of Origin Series.

In saying that, dead rubbers have generally been fairly one-sided contests in the modern era and three of the past four have had a final margin of 13 points or more.

Even if New South Wales plays close to their best, which I expect them to do, they are still no certainty to be able to put a big score on this very tough Queensland side and New South Wales to win by 1-12 is easily the safest betting play.

Recommended Bet: Back New South Wales (1-12) @ $2.60

First Try Scorer

Queensland have scored the first try in eight of the past 12 State Of Origin games, but it is New South Wales that I expect to come out firing in this game.

 

Debutants have an excellent record when it comes to scoring tries in State Of Origin and there is no debutant in this game that is poised to make a bigger impact than James Tedesco.

Tedesco has been in supreme try-scoring form for the Wests Tigers this season and he is a player with a great deal of confidence who won’t be afraid to take on the line in the early stages of his State Of Origin debut.

He is a great bet to score the first try at his current odds of $12.

The New South Wales forward that stands out as a value selection is Wade Graham.

Graham is one of the most skillful forwards in the NRL and his footwork can make him very dangerous close to the line, which makes him a great value bet at his current price of $29.

It is a couple of North Queensland Cowboys that offer the value for Queensland.

Johnathan Thurston scored first for the Cowboys against the South Sydney Rabbitohs on Sunday and it would not surprise to see him take on the line early against New South Wales.

He has scored first in a State Of Origin clash before and $21 is a big price.

Gavin Cooper is no certainty to start for Queensland, but there is no forward in the NRL that has a better try-scoring record.

Cooper has an outstanding chemistry with Thurston and it would not surprise if JT was extremely keen to put his great mate over the line!

He often starts as short as $13 in first try scorer betting markets and the $29 currently on offer is a great bet.

Recommended Bets: Back James Tedesco ($12), Wade Graham ($29), Johnathan Thurston ($21) and Gavin Cooper ($29) to score the first try.

Man Of The Match

State Of Origin Game 3 Teams

New South Wales

James  Tedesco (Wests Tigers)

Blake Ferguson (Sydney Roosters)

Michael Jennings (Parramatta Eels)

Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Josh Mansour (Penrith Panthers)

James Maloney (Cronulla Sharks)

Adam Reynolds (South Sydney Rabbitohs)

Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)

Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers)

Paul Gallen (Cronulla Sharks)

Wade Graham (Cronulla Sharks)

Josh Jackson (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)

Bench

Jack Bird (Cronulla Sharks)

James Tamou (North Queensland Cowboys)

David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Andrew Fifita (Cronulla Sharks)

Queensland Maroons

Darius Boyd (Brisbane Broncos)

Corey Oates (Brisbane Broncos)

Greg Inglis (South Sydney Rabbitohs)

Justin O’Neill (North Queensland Cowboys)

Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)

Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)

Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)

Matt Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)

Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm)

Josh McGuire (Brisbane Broncos)

Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)

Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)

Corey Parker (Brisbane Broncos)

Bench

Gavin Cooper (North Queensland Cowboys)

Nate Myles (Manly Sea-Eagles)

Aidan Guerra (Sydney Roosters)

Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand Warriors)