Ryan Phelan breaks down the form for Tuesday’s Shepparton meeting and shares his betting strategy and quaddies.
OVERVIEW: THE CHOOK (7) comes here with somewhat different form lines to the opposition, who by and large are familiar to each other. Whilst she’s winless this season, she’s been racing well, placing on five occasions from nine starts. The barrier draw doesn’t help, but she does drop in grade on what she’s been facing, so with even luck can be in the finish.
STARLIGHT RED (5) has recaptured some terrific form over the past couple of months and was rewarded for that consistency with a win last start at Echuca. She returns to the front row to use her gate speed and give cheek again. AT THE DISTANCE (9) was a winner four runs back in similar grade, and whilst his past three runs haven’t measured up to that performance, his trailing draw gives him claims. WHATS THE TEA (10) ran a better race last time when second off a soft draw, and if the tempo is right, he can work into it late again.
SELECTIONS: THE CHOOK (7), STARLIGHT RED (5), AT THE DISTANCE (9), WHATS THE TEA (10)
| 7. The Chook (6) J: Alex Ashwood 30×32T: T J Fellows | |||
| Two back was beaten by 6 m finishing third behind Deep Love at Maryborough over 2190m on June 17 at $9.50. Then a handy effort when beaten by 4 m finishing second behind Little Miss Morgan at Bendigo over 2150m on July 1 at $51. Going along well. Leading chance again. | |||
OVERVIEW: ALLGOOD VINNIE (3) finds a suitable race here after racing very well against tougher opposition. He’s a very quick beginner and was able to lead last time out and take cover, only to flash late. The bigger track here should only suit him better, and with the right tempo can be hard to run down.
FLOJOS BEST (9) appears down on form, but in her defence, she’s been racing in strong company in quick final fractions. She looks well graded here and is open to improvement from the trailing draw. MADAM REACTOR (1) wasn’t far away from the top pick at her last start, and she draws well here to get the soft run on leaders back. She was a winner here four back. BET SHEZA LADY (4) does tend to mix her form, but she does perform well at this track, and her win two back keeps her well in.
BACK: ALLGOOD VINNIE (3) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ALLGOOD VINNIE (3), FLOJOS BEST (9), MADAM REACTOR (1); BET SHEZA LADY (4)
| 3. Allgood Vinnie (3) J: Ewa Justice 11242T: Ashleigh Herbertson | |||
| Solid run when beaten by 2.75 m finishing fourth after showing early speed, behind Longtan Viper at Warragul over 1790m on June 8 at $5. Then a handy effort when beaten by 1.5 m finishing second after showing early speed, behind Line Dance at Echuca over 1755m on July 7 at $8. Should be in the mix again. | |||
OVERVIEW: LITTLE MISS MORGAN (5) is a lightly raced trotter, but one who’s displaying plenty of scope in her career to date. Last preparation she started putting it all together with some good performances and resumed for a good win where she did work at Bendigo. She looks well placed with her mare’s allowance, and if she brings her barrier manners is the one to beat.
KENNYS SON (6) is clearly enjoying his best season of racing, bringing nice tractability and trying hard. He’s got good early gate speed so he can be expected to race in a handy position. ALDEBARAN MARCUS (2) creates interest returning to this track after a successful period racing in SA. He’s drawn well and is a winner here. MY JERRY (4) can be a good roughie for your exotics. He got it wrong on resumption, but trialled ok prior so he’s worth keeping safe.
BACK: LITTLE MISS MORGAN (5) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: LITTLE MISS MORGAN (5), KENNYS SON (6), ALDEBARAN MARCUS (2), MY JERRY (4)
| 5. Little Miss Morgan (5) J: Juanita Breen 120×1T: Juanita Breen | |||
| Last preparation only had 3 starts before going for a break. Returned to racing with a handy 4 m win (Sr1) at Bendigo (2:45.10) beating The Chook in on July 1 at $3.70 at the bell was leading 0.13. Hard to beat again. | |||
OVERVIEW: EEBEEBEE (2) gets her best draw and set-up to breakthrough for her maiden victory, which to this point has eluded her in 25 starts and yielded 14 placings. She was quite good last time out in decent enough sectionals, and she should get the right map to give her every chance.
WATCH HIM DANCE (3) joins a stable having a good season and could be open to improvement here. His last couple of runs have been ok, so monitor any betting moves. CAPITAL AVENUE (5) is a first starter as a 4yo mare and creates plenty of interest on the back of her Kilmore trial win. Whilst the time wasn’t overly flash, the opposition she meets here have had their chances, so she must be respected. WOODVILLE FLYER (7) came through the same race as the top pick and has been going ok overall. The draw is a bit tricky here, however.
SELECTIONS: EEBEEBEE (2), WATCH HIM DANCE (3), CAPITAL AVENUE (5), WOODVILLE FLYER (7)
| 2. Eebeebee (2) J: Mark Pitt 22662T: K L Butler | |||
| Improved last start with a good run when 2nd (Sr2) over 2150m at Bendigo, at the bell was 5th-5.18 beaten 13 m by Cool Story (2:37.80) in 4yo+ on July 1 at $3.60. One of the key runners. | |||
OVERVIEW: HIGHVIEW HAMMER (5) is a quick beginner and will look for the lead here over the short trip. His recent form has been very good and he was a winner here three back where he was able to get into a good forward position from the widest draw. With the right luck, his recent sectionals are better than most.
OUR MYSTERY BET (2) was a runner-up to the top pick two back over this trip where he worked on that occasion outside the speed. He’s a grinder who goes at the same speed late, so if they overcook things look for him late. FOREGONE CONCLUSION (3) won under these conditions last start, coming off the speed and proving too strong. He drops back to the mile here, so the map is important if he’s to repeat the result. TALISKER SKIPPER (4) finished runner-up in that race, and although he had every chance there, his form overall has been good so he’s in the mix.
SELECTIONS: HIGHVIEW HAMMER (5), OUR MYSTERY BET (2), FOREGONE CONCLUSION (3), TALISKER SKIPPER (4)
| 5. Highview Hammer (5) J: Luke Sutherland 72124T: Corey Bell | |||
| Not far away at the last couple starts; Finished 3 m fourth behind Line Dance at Echuca over 1755m last start. Before that was beaten a neck second at Maryborough over 1690m same class on June 29. Sure to be thereabouts. | |||
OVERVIEW: DUSTY PHILTRA (3) despite going down at this track as an odds-on favourite two back, is worth another chance, noting his PB at this track and distance is superior to most here. He gets a handy draw to race close to the speed and be strong late.
OUR SWEET JEANNIE (2) has been freshened up for this and has a trial win to set her up well. She has form around the top pick and will look to race handy over the short trip and be in the finish. THE GOLDEN HOOK (7) has been in my tips plenty of times, and he is threatening to do something. He had every hope last time out, but he does find a suitable class here. PEARL OF PHILTRA (5) is a very hard horse to catch. She’s either winning or running last in her four-start career, so she can go in knowing her best is good enough.
SELECTIONS: DUSTY PHILTRA (3), OUR SWEET JEANNIE (2), THE GOLDEN HOOK (7), PEARL OF PHILTRA (5)
| 3. Dusty Philtra (2) J: James Herbertson 14522T: M F Blackmore | |||
| Not far away at the last couple starts; Finished a narrow second behind Set Play at Riverina Paceway over 1740m last start. Before that was beaten a nose second at this track over 2190m same class on June 16. Racing well and can go one better. | |||
OVERVIEW: CRESCO THREEPEAT (5) looks well suited under these concession conditions, as he’s a tough customer who loves grinding into his work. He was much better last time out, still coming on the line, and he performs best at this track. He looks a good play at what should be decent value.
CLIVES GIRL (3) was backed as if unbeatable last week and she had every conceivable chance. She has won under these concession conditions, so she will be popular again and worth another chance. MISS HERMES (6) broke up last start, but she does tend to run her best races at this track. She was a winner here four back so keep her safe. WHERES WOOD WOOD (7) beat her home in winning last time out but was given a perfect drive. She has an awkward map to contend with here but is in the mix.
BACK: CRESCO THREEPEAT (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CRESCO THREEPEAT (5), CLIVES GIRL (3), MISS HERMES (6), WHERES WOOD WOOD (7)
| 5. Cresco Threepeat (3) J: Joey Sharp 27064T: Gary Pekin | |||
| Last start 4th (Fr4) over 1755m at Echuca, at the bell was 2nd-3.2 beaten 5.5 m by Whats Glenda Got (2:10.30) on July 7 at $6.50. Before that, 6th (Sr5) over 1690m at Maryborough, at the bell was 7th-11.8 beaten 11 m by Kimchi (2:05.10) on June 29 at $34. Capable of a lot more. | |||
OVERVIEW: QUEENHIGH FLUSH (3) is coming off two good performances, where last start she was a strong winner at Kilmore after leading out and taking cover. She looks to get to the pegs first again here to get every chance, so she looks the testing material.
MADDALEEZ (4) has been better her past four runs, including a win, and her second last time out saw her hit the line well. She should slide across with the speed here and map ok to be in the finish. HOLD ON FOREVER (2) has been ok his past few runs, but this is a winnable assignment, so he’s open to sharp improvement from the good draw. MEGAWATTS (7) was a winner at Mildura two runs back and was sound last time out at Charlton. He gets no favours with the draw but is in the mix.
BACK: QUEENHIGH FLUSH (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CRESCO THREEPEAT (5), CLIVES GIRL (3), MISS HERMES (6), WHERES WOOD WOOD (7)
| 3. Queenhigh Flush Nz (3) J: Damian Wilson 76831T: M C Tobin | |||
| Last start tracked on the speed and boxed on steadily; won by 2 m when quickly away, (Fr5) at Kilmore (2:45.10) beating Miki Mark in on July 8 at $8.50 at the bell was 2nd-3.3. Sure to go well again. | |||
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R2 #3 ALLGOOD VINNIE – 3 units (win)
R3 #5 LITTLE MISS MORGAN – 3 units (win)
R7 #5 CRESCO THREEPEAT – 2 units (win)
R8 #3 QUEENHIGH FLUSH – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
4,5,7,8,9,10/1,3,9/5,6/2,3,5,7
QUADDIE
2,3,4,5,7/2,3,5,7/3,5,6/2,3,4