Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels Prediction, Tips & Odds

Penrith is looking every bit the premiership favourite early on, but Parramatta has picked up some momentum ahead of this western Sydney derby.

FORM: The Panthers already look eye-wateringly ominous, outscoring the Broncos, Sharks and Roosters 92 points to 10. Their big guns are in peak form, while wing bolter Tom Jenkins scored four tries against the Roosters last Friday.

Bouncing back from a heavy first-up defeat in Melbourne, the Eels have run down the Broncos (40-32) and Dragons (30-20) after giving up sizeable first-half leads.

INS AND OUTS: Jack Cogger returns on the Panthers’ bench at Jack Cole’s expense. Brian Kelly is back in the centres for the Eels in the place of Jordan Samrani (knee), while Luca Moretti comes onto the interchange following J’Maine Hopgood’s season-ending injury.

KEY MATCH-UP: Nathan Cleary has been in Dally M-worthy form, while Mitch Moses collected the maximum votes in the Eels’ win over the Dragons. The pair are regarded as the two best halfbacks in the game by most.

HISTORY: After chalking up four straight regular-season wins over the Panthers in 2022-23 (along with two finals losses in the former year), the Eels have lost the last four in a row. Last season the Panthers prevailed 18-10 in Round 13 and 32-10 in Round 19.

KEY STAT: Brian To’o has scored 10 tries in his last 10 games against the Eels. Tom Jenkins crossed for the Panthers in both 2025 derbies.

VERDICT: The Eels have done well to claw back to a 2-1 record, but they have nevertheless conceded more points than any other team in the competition. That doesn’t bode well coming up against a Panthers side that has conceded two tries in three games and went into offensive overdrive last week.

Tip: Back the Eels to Score Less than 16.5 Points @ $1.96

SGM: PANTHERS/PANTHERS HALFTIME/FULLTIME / PAUL ALAMOTI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BLAIZE TALAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JOSH ADDO-CARR ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.52