THE BRIEF
Round one threw up a couple of surprises and round two was a tipsters nightmare. What does a tipsters nightmare mean in terms of the punt? Value. If you can find it.
Plenty are on early in search of the best price and that gives us the information required to help you follow the money trail in to another epic weekend of AFL action.
THE BIG FIVE
- $15k on Collingwood (v St Kilda) @ $1.55
- $12k on Sydney (v GWS Giants) @ $1.40
- $10k on North Melbourne -25.5 line (v Melbourne) @ $1.92
- $5k on Hawthorn -7.5 line (v Bulldogs) @ $1.92
- $5k on Adelaide (v Richmond) @ $2.05
FIRST BOUNCE
Everything which Essendon was in defeating Melbourne last week, Port Adelaide wasn’t in their showdown shellacking at the hands of the Crows. That was last week and no punter seems to believe Essendon can do the unthinkable two weeks in a row even if the Power outage extends even slightly in to round three. In saying that, there haven’t been too many keen to take the short quote on Port. What the market does seem to believe is the Bombers have the ability to not get blown away by the Port side which has been weakened this week with injury.
With Wingard, Schultz, Hartlett and Carlisle all absent, the line has been attacked, firming from 50.5 in to 42.5 before correcting slightly to 44.5 where it sits now.
DRAWING A LINE ON THE SAINTS
Drawing a form line on the season to date has been tough and St Kilda and Collingwood almost epitomise why. The Saints were good in defeat against the Power in round now and okay in patches in a 10 goal loss to the rampaging dogs last week.
The Pies were spanked by Sydney, lost two of their best players and pulled off a great escape against Richmond. So what to do here?
Well, most believe the Magpies will be too good for St Kilda but think the Saints will at least put up a fight, so line betting has been the go.
There has been a lot of love for the Saints with that line shifting from 16.5 in to 11.5.
It seems a logical way to go for me.
SUNS RISING
Hands up if you had the Suns as a season cellar dweller? (sticks both hands in the air like a grade 2 trying to impress the teacher)
I am not willing to concede i was wrong just yet as i feel the Gold Coast boys will trip up soon like they are exiting a nightclub on the Sunshine Strip at 5am, but they have surprised me thus far.
Essendon is obviously nothing to write home about but Fremantle, despite being on the slide, is not an easy beat. Carlton is. So the Suns should make it three from three against the Blues and that is what every punter on early seems to think too. It has been one way traffic for the Gold Coast who have been smashed at the shorts in the head to head, while the line has blown out from a tick over five goals to north of six.
SAME OLD STORY
Just when you thought things might be turning for Melbourne, the Demons of old do the most Melbourne thing they can and lose to the Bombers. North Melbourne has been flying early doors and it looks set to continue with many believing this is the easiest money of the round. Having won their past 14 encounters, the Kangaroos look a certainty to extend it to 15 while the line has been stretched all the way out from 25.5 to 35.5 on the back of some outrageous support.
BARKING MAD
In round one the Bulldogs went from 10 point outsiders in early markets to clear cut favourites against the Dockers and duly saluted. The market has done similar this week against the Hawks with the ladder leaders among the best supported teams of the week against the reigning premiers. The 7.5 line has been so heavily backed, as has the head to head, that the match is now a ‘pick em’. That’s a split market, $1.92 each.