THE BRIEF
We seemed to have learned a few important things in the opening three rounds of the season.
Richmond and Collingwood are sliding rather than rising.
Fremantle’s premiership window has unexpectedly slammed shut
Hawthorn is still the benchmark.
At least they are the key points round four betting trends have thrown up.
THE BIG FIVE
- $50k on West Coast -30.5 line (v Richmond) @ $1.92
- $30k on St Kilda +49.5 line (v Hawthorn) @ $1.92
- $10k on Richmond +34.5 line (v West Coast) @ $1.92
- $10k on North Melbourne (v Fremantle) @ $1.28
- $10k on Carlton +46.5 line (v Bulldogs) @ $1.92
FIRST BOUNCE
Richmond has a reasonable record in the west but out of form and without Brett Deledio, punters are steering as clear of the Tigers as you would the real thing in the wilds of Africa. Betting at the line is a different story. Having opened at 29.5, many were happy to take the Eagles at the minus but, as the week progressed and the line ballooned to 35.5, support came for Richmond.
It’s temporarily settled at 32.5 but with whispers of possible key outs for the Eagles, both the line and the head to head markets could shift significantly in the Tigers favour.
IN THE NICK OF TIME?
One Ladbrokes punter will be taking particular interest in the health of St Kilda skipper, Nick Riewoldt, following a concussion against the Magpies. Whether or not the champion forward takes his place in the side is sure to make a large difference to the anxiety levels of said punter, who bet $30k on the Saints to cover the +49.5 line. Aside from that rather large wager, it has been all one way for the Hawks to continue their winning ways and take up their rightful place in the top eight. That’s right; they’re currently ninth.
BULLDOGS BITING BACK
If the siren sounded approximately 62 seconds earlier, the Bulldogs would be 3 and 0 with their skipper’s knee in tact. Unfortunately the football gods decide to play a sick joke on the success starved puppies and are making them do it the hard way. They will get to ease in to life without Bob Murphy, this week taking on the lowly Blues, having narrowly missed clipping the mighty Hawks’ wings. Certainly, at this point, the loss of the captain isn’t expected to be felt as punters have rallied around the Dogs like the football community has rallied around Murphy.
The Bulldogs have been backed in to $1.09, the shortest odds they seen for many a year, but the line is where people have been chasing some value. It’s blown out from 39.5 to 47.5 while the Dogs at the 60 plus has also received plenty of support.
FRIENDLESS FREO
That’s right, Freo has dropped anchor outside the eight and passengers are jumping off like it’s the Titanic. I’m sure this is where i should insert a bad Leo DiCaprio joke, but one cheesy line per yarn is enough.
The Kangaroos are hardly a model of consistency but they’ve been the subject of a big go here against last year’s minor premier. They’ve firmed from $1.40 to $1.25 with the line attacked in a serious way too, drifting from 17.5 to 27.5.
No Sandilands and No Mundy = No bets. And with the big fella out for Freo, Todd Goldstein should have his way in the ruck and rack up yet another three Brownlow votes. He would have certainly grabbed at least two last week and punters were quick to react, backing him in for the league’s highest individual honour.
BATTLE OF THE BIRDS
An undisputed match of the round between Adelaide and Sydney will hopefully produce in the same fashion last week’s did between Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs. The betting in this match has barely moved with both sides receiving support from their loyal subjects. The Swans, who like the Crows have exceeded early expectations, are currently narrow favourites, with a line of just 1.5. Whether that holds up come game time, who knows? Regardless, it’ll remain a very tight market.