THE BRIEF
There are currently four teams who have not lost for a month or more; the top three sides on the ladder in North Melbourne, Geelong and the Giants and also Carlton. Yes, Carlton. Think about that while I dig up the money trail for round 9.
THE BIG FIVE
- $9k on Adelaide -55.5 (v Gold Coast) @ $1.92
- $7k on Adelaide -60.5 (v Gold Coast) @ $1.92
- $5k on Port Adelaide (v West Coast) @ $3.25
- $4k on North Melbourne (v Carlton) @ $1.22
- $3k on Giants (v Bulldogs) @ $1.42
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
With the news of Jarryd Roughead’s impending battle with secondary skin cancer, we were this week reminded some things are more important than sport and punting The show must go on though and how it affects the Hawks has quite clearly been in the minds of punters who have come for the Swans. They Sydneysiders have been $2.35 into $2.10 with the Hawks easing from $1.56 to $1.77. The line has also been crunched, coming in from 11.5 to just 3.5.
SETTING SUNS
After a 3 and 0 start, the season appears just about done for the Suns. They’ve looked nothing like an AFL standard side of late and with skipper Gary Ablett joining the seemingly endless injury list, this week could get even uglier against a quality side like the Crows.
The line here opened 45.5 and blew all the way out beyond 10 goals once Gaz was a confirmed out. It’s now settled somewhat around the 54.5 mark but the head to head is forgone conclusion with Adelaide into $1.03 from their opening mark of $1.08.
MORE POWER?
Port Adelaide are the Jekyll and Hyde team of the competition; one week belting a side, the next being belittled by another. Although a narrow loss to Carlton doesn’t read so bad given the Blues rebirth. The Eagles are 5 and 0 at Subiaco and 0 and 3 away from their safety blanket. So what happens here? What if the poor Port Adelaide turn up and the Eagles continue their atrocious away record? Will we see a nil-all draw?
Uncertainty over the availability of Josh Kennedy has seen the Eagles as a drifting favourite. They’ve been $1.33 out to $1.53 while the Power, who’ll welcome back key playmaker Robbie Grey have been $3.25 into $2.55 with the line following the head to head firming from 19.5 into 11.5.
YELLOW AND BACK
Richmond finally got win number two for the season last week and did it in the most Richmond way possible with a kick after the siren against one of the premiership fancies. So has the tide turned? Punters seem to think it might be starting to because against a Fremantle side further ravaged by injury and, let’s be honest, tanking accusations, the Tigers have been the subject of a reasonably big go, in from $1.95 to $1.73. The Dockers, who at 0 and 8 are anchored to the bottom of the ladder have been friendless in betting and out to a $2.15 outsider having opened $1.85.
DOG GONE
Quite possibly the match of the round and, if both sides could put their best 22 on the park, it could be one of the matches of the season between the competition’s most exciting young lists in the Giants and Bulldogs.
With the match review panel deeming injury hadn’t torn a big enough hole in the Dogs lineup, they suspended Matthew Boyd and Jack Redpath and the market reacted.
The Giants have been $1.47 into $1.42, while the Dogs have blown out toward the $3 mark. The line opened 14.5, got out to 19.5 and is now 17.5. The home ground form of GWS is fairly irresistible.
The pessimistic Bulldogs supporter in me thinks the Giants at the line is a very good bet.
QUICK LOOK
Okay, four wins in a row for the Blues but just how well are they going? Up against the undefeated Kangaroos this round, we should get a good indication and having almost tripped up against the Bombers last weekend, a loss looks very close for the ladder leaders and, as such, Carlton has been getting more than a little love at the big price.
One way traffic on the Cats keeping touch with the Kangas and, if Brad Scott’s team happen to slip up, his brother’s mob can grab top spot. Geelong has been $1.20 into $1.17, the line 31.5 out to 36.5. Collingwood had it all too easy last week and, while they’ve proved a flat track bully this season, they look like they’ll be the ones bullied here, out from $4.60 to $5.25.
Not sure I could ever back Melbourne as the red hot favourite given they’ve faltered each time of late they’ve found themselves in that position. Surely they couldn’t lose to Brisbane though. The Lions would have been better off sending out the Auskickers last week against Collingwood and have subsequently had zero love here. The line out from 32.5 to 38.5.