THE BRIEF
As the stars sit out ahead of the mid-week match we wait all year for in Origin, the ‘tax’ we have to pay is a shell of a round. Four matches with the big guns missing means a lower standard of game and obviously less games to watch and therefor punt on but, fear not, we shall find a winner by following the money
THE BIG FIVE
- $10k Brisbane -12 line (v Tigers) @ $1.92
- $5k on Parramatta 13+ (v Newcastle) @ $2.10
- $2500 Newcastle 13+ (v Parramatta) @ $11
- $2k North Queensland (v St George) @ $2.30
- $1k Wests Tigers (v Brisbane) @ $4.50
MULTI MAGIC
- $15k on Broncos/Eels double @ $1.56
A SUNCORP STAMPEDE
Sure, the Broncos are missing some serious playmakers to Origin duties but so too are the Tigers. The difference being, the Broncos have a depth of talent which Wests do not and punters seem certain that will be exposed in all its glory tonight.
While one punter has enough faith in the Tigers ability to step up as to outlay $1k on them at $4.50, he has few friends willing to follow him in.
In fact, the best backed market in this match has been for the home side at the line. Sitting around 12 all week, the Broncos look a good thing to cover it.
In fact some are so keen on Brisbane’s ability to dominate tonight, the handicap market of the Broncos -24.5 has attracted multiple bets in the hundreds of dollars at the very juicy odds of $4.50. The same price the Tigers are to win the match.
GREEN MACHINE AT FULL POWER
When the market opened there was almost no splitting the Raiders and Bulldogs but, as the week has progressed, punters have warmed into the Green Machine putting them in the black.
The line, which was originally scratch, is now at -4 and Canberra has been backed into a solid $1.57 favourite, with the Bulldogs a $2.45 outsider and absolutely friendless in the betting
As I look at the teams, and their respective form, all that speaks to me in this market is the value surrounding Canterbury. Get on the Dogs at a very good price.
WILL THE COWBOYS GET BURNT?
The Dragons have rarely breathed fire at all this season but run into the Cowboys at the perfect time with the premiers understrength because of Origin. The market has obviously reacted to that and rightly so but, for mine, I can definitely see North Queensland winning as underdog in this one. It sure as hell won’t be as entertaining as last week’s grand final re-match with the Broncos, but $2.20 looks tasty even if the football isn’t fantastic. Obviously it’s a big call to back a side missing so many on rep duties but the $1.70 for the Dragons definitely doesn’t sit right with me.
KNIGHT FALL
These two teams should really play for some kind of trophy given they are battling it out already for who has the most issues; the Knights on the field and the Eels off it.
This game is played ON a field though which gives Parramatta the upper hand given Newcastle is terrible when it comes to actually playing football.
I don’t know how many times I have written this, this season, and it still feels strange but the Knights are THE BEST BACKED OUTSIDER OF THE ROUND.
Yep, that includes the Cowboys and Bulldogs. Even with only four games it is a real WTF scenario. One punter in particular will be cheering harder than anyone else having wagered $2500 on the Knights to salute by 13+. (to win $27,500)
Good luck to him; At least he thinks outside the square, but I’ll take the $1.30 getting about for Parramatta thank you.