THE BRIEF
The bye rounds begin in AFL this week too so between the two major codes in this country, while we aren’t starved of action, we are on a diet. Not vegan but certainly vego. In saying that, the games we are presented with are pretty reasonable contests (think hearty veggie soup rather than tofu and kale) and the betting in them has been good. Let’s take a walk through the round and find a winner or three. Hopefully six.
And just quickly, take note of the second big bet of the BIG FIVE .. That’s to win $100. Ballsy, I like it.
THE BIG FIVE
- $15k parlay bet on Hawks, Port and Dogs – average odds $3 (complicated punting)
- $10k on GWS (v Essendon) @ $1.02
- $7k on Geelong – 5.5 line (v Bulldogs) @ $1.92
- $5k on Port Adelaide (v Fremantle) @ $1.67
- $5k on Hawthorn -25.5 line (v Nth Melbourne) @ $1.92
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
The ladder leaders versus the reigning premiers and the champs are all the rage given the injuries to key Kangaroos. When the sides were named last night with No Swallow, Waite and Cunnington in the North Melbourne team, they blew out to $3.40 after opening $2.65. The Roos faithful are the only group in the world who don’t want to lose Waite. (sorry, had to be done)
Anyway, pretty much all the money, all week has been for the Hawks ($1.50 into $1.33 ) given the return of Sam Mitchell and the speculation surrounding the weakness of the Kangaroos side. A loss here would almost certainly see them surrender the top spot on the ladder by the end of the weekend as the chasing pack close in. A tough draw coming up has many predicting a sharp fall into the bottom half of the eight for North.
The Hawks will go equal top if they do as punters are predicting. They’ve also been VERY well supported at the line which blew up like a circus marquee on the back of teams being named. 14.5 out to 26.5 but it has somewhat corrected itself now and is into a more realistic 22.5.
EAGLES FLY NORTH
West Coast have been very poor on the road this season (bar a win over Port) but surely their travel sickness won’t extend to the Sunshine State against a Lions side barely mustering AFL standard performances at the moment?
Well, with Nic Nat out injured and Scott Lycett suspended by the club, mixed in with poor form of late and a long trip, there’s been good support for Brisbane … only in line betting though.
Head to head, the Eagles are $1.08 to $1.11 with nobody genuinely believing they’ll get rolled by the Lions ($8 into $7) but, as I mentioned, they have been the subject of a little go at the line which has trimmed up almost 10 points from 50.5 to 41.5.
RAINING CATS AND DOGS
Okay, it won’t be raining as this is under the roof at Etihad; a ground which is a fortress for the Dogs. It is however hard to protect the fortress if you run out of soldiers.
The Dogs new found depth has been outstanding this year but without Luke Dahlhaus and against a quality side like Geelong, punters feel this might be that little bit too tough for the pups.
There’s been a good go for the Cats at both the head to head ($1.73 to $1.62) and at the line (-4.5 to -7.5).
The Bulldogs have drifted from $2.10 to $2.35, similar to last week when they travelled to Adelaide undermanned and beat Port by two points. Just saying.
IN FORM FREO?
Not quite ‘in-form’ but a win here against a somewhat inconsistent Port Adelaide side would make it three in succession for the Dockers, who a fortnight ago sat last without a win.
The money has come for the Power though, as it has the past few rounds (twice successfully), who have been $1.67 into $1.62 with the Dockers out from $2.20 to $2.35. The line has been 6.5 out to 8.5.
Fremantle are at home and get former skipper Matthew Pavlich back, which any other year would have them as short as Danny DeVito, but 2016 is not a normal year in Ross Lyon’s world.
SWAN DIVE? PLEASE
A week ago Sydney was flag favourite and all the rage in premiership betting; one loss to the Giants and a long term injury to Kurt Tippett and suddenly Melbourne is being backed to beat them on the SCG. Yep. Melbourne.
The Demons have been $4.60 into $3.90 with the line trimming up from 28.5 to 24.5.
Talk about a market overreaction. The Dees were great beating Collingwood but there is one problem. They beat Collingwood.
Let’s not get too carried away here, Melbourne still lack consistency and Sydney still have a stack of match winners, including a bloke called Franklin up forward.
The Swans are $1.20 out to $1.27 and are a dead set lock for all sport multis for mine.
A GIANT PERCENTAGE BOOSTER
Winning is out of the question for Essendon. Just ask the punter who plonked the $10k on the Giants at $1.02. The line is interesting though having been trimmed from 72.5 into 63.5. I can’t fathom this. GWS have destroyed sides this season, including a little club called Hawthorn, who don’t go too bad. Support each week for the Bombers staggers me and like taking Sydney head to head as a bank job, I’ll be doubling down on the Giants at the line. 63.5? Thanks for that!