THE BRIEF
The curtain comes down on group one racing for 2015-16 today at Eagle Farm with the running of the Tatts Tiara and the interest outside the race itself is just how will the track play on its second meeting at Queensland racing HQ?
There’s some reasonable races outside the Brisbane feature both at Eagle Farm and also in Melbourne where we could be seeing the next boom sprinter take on the Flemington straight.
While the good horses join the great horses away from the racetrack after this weekend, we’ll still be here each week using a money trail to guide you to a winner.
THE BIG FIVE
- EAGLE FARM Race 9, No 1 That’s A Good Idea $25k @ $4.60
- EAGLE FARM Race 8, No 2 Danish Twist $20k @ $6
- FLEMINGTON Race 2, no 2 Danestroem $3k @ $6
- RANDWICK Race 9, no 3 Encostanati $1500 e/w @ $11/$4
TATT’S TIARA (Eagle Farm, Race 8)
She’s been up for a long time has AZKADELLIA with the current prep stretching back to February where she resumed with a second at Caulfield. In seven runs this time around, Ciaron Maher’s star mare has finished out of the placing only once, as a beaten favourite in the Stradbroke Handicap last start but punters are largely sticking fat.
She opened $2.70 and got in as short as $2.35 before easing back out to her current mark of $2.80. She’s certainly been the most popular runner with smaller punters and if the track chops out on the inside as it did last time around, barrier 11 and her racing style should be well suited here.
DANISH TWIST has been popular among bigger betting folk here with one punter in particular having $20k on her at $6. She’s drawn barrier one so a chopped up rail won’t be a great result for Kris Lees’ girl, but having Hugh Bowman aboard is a major asset in a group one.
There’s been specking for BLUEBERRY HILL at odds, who has been $31 into $21 and now back out to $26. She’s up in grade but her victory in the Gai Waterhouse at Ipswich last week indicated she could well be up to it.
PRECIOUS GEM comes in off a 6th placing in the Stradbroke following a group one win in the Sangster in Adelaide and has been very well backed to grab the glory here. She’s been $7.50 into $7.00 which is significantly shorter than her price in the previous two starts.
BIG BET
$20k – Danish Twist @ $6
DAYBREAK LOVER (Eagle Farm, Race 10)
Chris Waller has won so many group ones now he’s decided to place boom filly TSARITSA in here rather than the Tiara, but who am I to question the master trainer?
She is three from three this prep, including a last start win in the group two Queensland Guineas, and will surely head to the paddock after this for a spring campaign.
She looks to be following a similar path to Waller’s might mare, WINX and could well be his next stable star. The biggest query seems to be the barrier as, like DANISH TWIST in the Tiara, she has drawn one which could prove hard going late in the day but, also like DANISH TWIST, she has the right man aboard in Hugh Bowman.
Having hovered around even money, her price closer to jump will be almost entirely determined by how the track is playing so approach early prices with caution.
There had been specking for IN HIS STRIDE ($15 into $12) who was to back up after winning at Ipswich last week at 25-1, but he has been scratched this morning.
The horse he beat home there SALMANAZAR has been steady at $8.50.
The big watch is on SOLD FOR SONG, who has been $4.40 into $3.90 and who ran 3rd behind TSARITSA in the guineas. Her get back, run on style could throw her right in the box seat should the track bias play as most are predicting.
BIG BET
$1500 – Tsaritsa @ $2.05
GOULBURN MURRAY HANDICAP(Flemington, Race 4)
A three-year-old handicap doesn’t generally get me too excited but this race could be a good indication as to whether SPEITH is our next big sprint star. The colt from the Bryce Heys stable at Warwick Farm was potentially going to run in the Brisbane carnival but connections have instead sent him to Melbourne to take a look at the famous Flemington straight ahead of a likely spring assault. He’s been $2.15 out to $2.50 with punters interested but not necessarily convinced as the straight has brought many a good nag undone.
The other Sydney runner, KING’S TROOP, who SPEITH beat last start is also fancied hovering around the $5 but with his fanciers given he meets the favourite four kilos better off.
CRYSTAL DREAMER makes a decent step up in grade but his sectionals winning at Swan Hill last start suggest he could be up to it and has subsequently been specked from $10 into $7.50. He also drops 3.5kg from that last start win.
One from left field which has been well back has been I BOOGI, who has been $41 into $20. He ran second on debut at Werribee back in January beaten three quarters of a length having missed the jump by five and was obviously black booked by a few after that given he’s been well found here.
BIG BET
$1k – KING’S TROOP @ $6 (odds boost)