The race for who will be the Democratic candidate that will take on Donald Trump come November this year heats up with Super Tuesday, which for Australian’s will take place on Wednesday.
14 states across America will get to have their say as to who they want to take on Trump on Super Tuesday and is normally considered the poll that will give us an indication as whom that candidate might be.
We’ve so far had four states that have held caucuses (which is basically a party meeting) where you either vote publicly or secretly in a ballot for your chosen candidate.
At present, Bernie Sanders is in the lead with three out of the four races going his way but former Vice-President Joe Biden has gotten himself back in the game with his big win in the South Carolina primary on the weekend.
Super Tuesday will also be the test for former New York Mayor Micheal Bloomberg who has spent plenty of money on his campaign but has yet to have an impact in the Democratic Primary.
There have also been two late scratchings going into this race.
Despite some early momentum Mayor Pete Buttigieg has pulled out of the running of the race as has Tom Steyer who didn’t make much of an impact in the early polls.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has also called quits on her presidential campaign after finishing sixth in the South Carolina primary and having a campaign event hijacked by protesters.
Both Klobuchar and Mayor Pete are expected to endorse Joe Biden for the nomination, which will give his campaign prospects a serious boost.
How Exactly Does Super Tuesday Work?
Like a lot of contests in America, the yanks love to drag things on.
Think of it like a long playoff series you’ve become accustomed to in Major League Baseball or the NBA.
If you enrol to vote in the USA, you have to register as either a Republican, Democrat or Independent.
If you’re registered as a Democrat you are able to vote in your respective state for who you want to be the candidate for president.
The aim of Super Tuesday is to get the delegates to get the points for the Democratic convention in July which will decide once and for all who will take on Donald Trump.
It’s best described by the BBC as to how it works:
“Let’s say Candidate A gets the most support in one state. Candidate B does OK, but not as well. Candidate A is then awarded the most delegates, and Candidate B fewer. The number of delegates available differs in each state.
Later in the summer, those delegates will then vote for their candidate to become the Democratic nominee. The target for any candidate is to reach an unbeatable majority of 1,990 delegates.“
Super Tuesday allows for 1357 delegates are up for grabs, compared to the 155 that have been awarded at this stage.
This is also the first time State’s with major populations – Texas and California have taken part in Super Tuesday.
We have a select number of markets for some of the states participating in Super Tuesday…
California
The most populous state in the US now joins the Super Tuesday lineup with the intention of increasing the influence of California awarding 30% of the delegates.
Respected US prediction site FiveThirtyEight predicts that Bernie Sanders has the votes in the Golden State and our market has Sanders at shorter-than-Winx odds of $1.03
You also can’t dispute that Bernie getting Chuck D from Public Enemy to b back his campaign puts him in line to get him over the line easily in California.
No Bet
Texas
Texas makes its Super Tuesday debut and polls have it neck and neck between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.
With a big Hispanic vote in the state, their turnout could be a factor as to who will get the 228 delegates on offer.
Those who may have planned on voting for either Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar may also oblige to get behind Biden with both former candidates endorsing him.
For what it’s worth polls forecast has Biden winning 29% of the vote and if Elizabeth Warren can eat into the Bernie vote, it’s worth taking Joe at the $2.20 for a bit of value.
Back Joe Biden @ $2.20
North Carolina
Polls for North Carolina have forecast Joe Biden to win with an average of 34% of the vote.
There could be an interesting split between Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg but all points lead to Joe Biden who is $129 in our market to get the job done in North Carolina.
Being a swing state, this is one to watch come November.
Back Joe Biden @ $1.29
Virginia
This state will factor in suburbs around the Washington DC area so it will be interesting to see how the results pan out especially with the split in the moderate/liberal (small “l”) vote.
Polls suggest an even split between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Micheal Bloomberg.
Best to stick with what you know in the state of Virginia and back the favourite – Joe Biden.
Back Joe Biden @ $1.33
Massachusetts
The home state of Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has been a standout at recent debates but hasn’t been able to get the numbers when it comes to polling time.
Many predict Bernie Sanders to win in this one and if Warren can’t get a decent amount of the vote in her home state, she’s every chance of putting an end to her campaign for the nomination.
Back Bernie Sanders @ $1.33
Oklahoma
This is a state to watch on Super Tuesday’ with polls all suggesting it’ll go down to the wire between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Micheal Bloomberg.
Mike Bloomberg has spent a lot of money to be in this race and it is the first time he will feature in a Democratic Primary.
The market currently has him at $9 and if he’s going to win any state, it’s going to be this one.
In a three-horse race where things can get unpredictable, it might be worth backing the outsider.
Back Mike Bloomberg @ $9
Arkansas
We’re entering Clinton Country with the race between Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg making for interesting reading in our market.
This traditionally hasn’t been a Democratic state come November (except when home town hero Bill Clinton was running for president)
For what it’s worth perhaps it’s best to play it safe back the favourite.
Back Joe Biden @ $1.25
The Main Game
Donald Trump is currently the $1.67 favourite to win a second term in the White House.
Bernie Sanders is second in our market at $4.
We did actually back Trump to win as the outsider in 2016 when many didn’t.
Perhaps it’s best to wait for a possible drift in the head to head market when the Democratic candidate has been chosen to take him on.
If trends persist, it’s best to look at backing Trump to beat Sanders ($3.50) or Biden ($4) in our Straight Forecast market for some value.
Back Straight Forecast: Trump Beats Sanders @ $3.50