There’s never been so much interest from punters regarding that (other) first Tuesday in November.
Believe it or not, there are only just FIVE days until the US Presidential Election.
To say that this is an election like no other would be the understatement of 2020.
So much is at stake both literally for punters and for society in general.
Love him or hate him, (there’s no inbetween here) Donald Trump has been a President like no other and has changed the course of how people do and see politics forever.
Will Donald Trump deliver yet another upset victory on November 3rd?
Or will the predictions and polls prove right this time and Joe Biden becomes the next leader of the free world?
Throughout the year, the Ladbrokes Blog has published a monthly Trump Guide devoted to all US Presidential election markets and has already delivered a few winners for political punters.
We’re all in with our comprehensive tips and preview and you can check out our Q&A with Matthew Shaddick, one of the world’s leading political bookmakers from Ladbrokes UK to give our punters some exclusive insight ahead of the poll.
PUNTERS PLAY THE TRUMP CARD
At the time of publishing, Joe Biden is the clear $1.53 favourite to win the election on November 3rd (Nov 4th AUS time) with Donald Trump at $2.60
However, Ladbrokes punters are ignoring the polls and are betting on history repeating itself with the money flowing in for the incumbent Trump.
As Ladbrokes Australia CEO Dean Shannon recently told the Courier Mail last week “It has been one-way traffic since Biden was declared as the Democratic Party nominee, and in the past few weeks it has really intensified,”
“As it stands Trump is a far worse result for us than anything that will run in the Melbourne Cup the day before. Figures show that in the head-to-head market alone, Ladbrokes is holding eight times more bets on Trump than Biden.”
Some of our biggest bets have been on Trump, including one punter who has placed $200,000 on the President this week, $100k the week previous along with some other bets between the $2000 and $20,000 mark.
We’ve also highlighted several times throughout the Trump Guide series that in 2016, our very own Resident Rainman who backed Donald Trump as his best bet at $4.50.
No one can ever underestimate Donald Trump and it’s clear that Ladbrokes Punters want to back him in to do it again.
But punter beware!
While it is easy to factor in the events of 2016, the world and circumstances are very different this time.
The early voter turnout, the kinds of voters who are turing out and the fact that states like Georgia are now in play for the Biden camp should make any punters wanting to load up on Donald Trump very nervous.
FANCY ANOTHER DONALD TRUMP UPSET?
Back Donald Trump @ $2.40
Trump to lose the popular vote but be re-elected @ $3
BEST TRUMP / REPUBLICAN BETS:
How many of these states will Trump win Texas, Ohio, Georgia, N Carolina, Arizona, Florida – 2 @ $9
Electoral College Votes Republican – Under 231.5 @ $1.88
40-45% Trump Popular Vote Share @ 2.35
Trump Under 200.5 Electoral College votes @ $2.38
BIDEN OUR TIME
First things first, this form guide is not an editorial or an endorsement for any candidate.
My job is to tip winners and to give some context around our selections.
The 2020 US Presidential Election is one of the most fascinating contests, even more so from a punting context.
We want punters reading this to back winners – nothing more, nothing less.
My pride and ego is on the line with these tips.
So without further or do, here goes my 2020 US Election Prediction:
Donald Trump will NOT win.
Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States of America.
He will win it comfortably.
“…but 2016” I hear you say.
2020 is not 2016.
Joe Biden not only leads in national polls, he leads in swing states, his campaign is where the money is flowing and the Democrats have a massive head-start in early voting which has been utilised at record levels.
Just about every single measurement for an election forecast leads to a Joe Biden victory.
FiveThirtyEight, which is one of the great analytical forecasters for political and sports data Trump an 11 in 100 chance of winning, Biden 89 in 100.
And yes, we know this was the case in 2016 but this is not 2016.
The 2016 election was a contest between arguably two of the most disliked candidates on both sides of the spectrum.
Trump took the dislike of Hillary Clinton to his full advantage, especially in the swing states where the electoral college brought it home for the Donald.
Joe Biden is very much of the old-hand political establishment, however, there is less anti-Biden sentiment across the US electorate compared to what was out there for anti Hillary Clinton camp in 2016.
Donald Trump will also have to take incumbency and has allowed his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic to be a major issue of this Presidential race.
Public and private polling also has Biden leading in key demographics and swing states.
The Swing State polling that had Hillary ahead, has Biden leading by a higher margin.
He is also leading higher than Clinton in those key demographics – older voters, white voters and suburban women.
These demographics are important as they tend to be the groups that turn out to vote.
While it is easy, especially as a punter, to be tempted by another Trump upset victory, the form guide suggests otherwise.
In Racing terms, Donald Trump is in barrier 24 of the Melbourne Cup with 70 kgs on his back.
It’s a bloody tough ask.
There’s still a chance for Donald Trump to win a second term.
He’s still a good value bet.
However, I’m tipping Joe Biden to win by the length of the Flemington straight.
BEST DEMOCRAT BETS:
Winner – Joe Biden @ $1.60
Popular Vote Share – Over 50% – @ $1.32
Democrats to win control of house, senate & white house @ $1.73
Democrats to win over 30 states (not inc DC) – $5
Biden wins Electoral College 300 – 349 @ $4
STATE BETTING
There’s a reason why Trump is holding MAGA rallies in certain states – is where the the eleciton is won and lost.
The states considered “Swing States” in the 2016 election were Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Arizona, Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine.
Trump has zero chance of winning the popular vote – Joe Biden is at $1.14 in that market.
He needs the swing states to bring him the electoral college votes he desperatley needs to have any chance of winning.
All 13 of the Swing States will still be very much in play on election day and will decide the fate for both Trump and Biden.
Current forecasts suggest that Joe Biden needs to win at least three of the major swing state/electoral college, along with all the other states expected to be turned blue to find himself in the Oval Office.
At present, the eight states that have been identified as battlegrounds by Politico are — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — for which Joe Biden has a lead in all but one of them.
There’s plenty of value to be found in state betting for the US Presidential election, and given we are ridin’ for Biden with our predictions here’s a few of our value bets in this market
Texas – Democrats @ $3.65
Ohio – Democrats @ $2.40
Arizona – Democrats @ $1.70
Pennsylvania – Democrats @ $1.40
Florida – Democrats @ $1.91
Florida margin of Victory – Biden wins by under 2.5% @ $3.50
Georgia – Democrats @ $2
Arizona – Democrats @ $1.60
Wisconsin – Democrats @ $1.29
SENATE BETTING
If our predictions are right (of which many punters don’t want) we see a potential blue-wave resulting in the Democrats winning the Presdiency, Congress and Senate.
The race for the senate is an incredibly tight one and there’s some serious value to be found in this market with many seats likely to go down to the wire.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 56 seats in the senate, with 50 giving them control of the house.
If you’re after some real value and some decent contests in this election, senate betting is where it’s at.
Back 47 Total Republican Seats @ $9
Back Cal Cunningham (Democrat) to win North Carolina US Senate @ $1.67
Back Jamie Harrison (Democrat) to win South Carolina US Senate @ $3.25
Back Jon Ossoff (Democrat) to win Georgia US Senate @ $2.10