The 2022 French Open is shaping as one of the more fascinating grand slams in recent memory, with a teenager diverting attention away from two legends and a 20-year-old installed as a runaway favourite to chalk up a second triumph at Roland Garros.
Check out the top contenders, the sleepers, the value picks, the Aussie hopes and the big first-week match-ups ahead of a captivating fortnight in Paris.
Upstart Threatens ‘Big Three’ Dominance
Carlos Alcaraz only made his French Open debut last year, dipping out in the third round, before enhancing his reputation with a US Open quarter-final run and going down gallantly to Matteo Berrettini in a third-round five-setter at the Australian Open in January.
But the 19-year-old has exploded since, climbing to sixth in the rankings after reaching the Indian Wells semis, winning the Miami Open and Barcelona Open, and knocking over the top three seeds – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev on his way to the Madrid Open title.
Alcaraz has also beaten world No.4 and 2021 French Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas twice in the past two months. The Spanish wunderkind has consequently surged to the second line of title betting at Roland Garros at $3.25 – just behind world No.1 and defending champion Djokovic ($3.00).
After missing out on the Calendar Slam in 2021 and the ‘Novax’ Australian Open deportation debacle, Djokovic has stormed back into top form. He made the Serbia Open final – going down to Andrey Rublev – then brushed off his semi-final loss to Alcaraz in Madrid by winning the Rome Masters last week in a canter.
Thirteen-time French Open Nadal opened as the favourite on the back of his record-breaking 21st grand slam success at the Australian Open, before winning the Mexico Open and making the final at Indian Wells.
A chronic foot injury has clouded his Paris campaign, however, and the ‘King of Clay’ – third favourite at $5.00 – has been below par so far on the clay swing.
Furthermore, Djokovic and Nadal – who have won 15 of the last 17 French Opens between them, including the last six straight – are on track to meet in the quarter-finals. The winner of that likely showdown is set to meet Alcaraz or 2021 French Open semi-finalist and third seed Zverev in the semis.
The draw has given the likes of current US Open champ and Australian Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Rublev and Casper Ruud – all placed in the bottom half – a significant leg up.
The Queen Has Retired, Long Live The Queen
Ashleigh Barty’s shock retirement at the age of 26 after almost three years as the top-ranked women’s player – a reign that encompassed the 2019 French Open, 2021 Wimbledon and 2022 Australian Open titles as she vanquished a host of Aussie grand slam hoodoos – in theory threw the WTA mantle wide open.
But almost immediately after Barty hung up the racquet, new No.1 Iga Świątek has signalled her intentions to dominate the tour.
Świątek carved out one of the most dominant grand slam runs of all time in 2020 when, as an unseeded 19-year-old, she won the French Open without dropping a set. The most games she dropped on her way to the title was five.
Somewhat disappointing on the grand slam stage since, Świątek made it to the Australian Open semis earlier this year. But she has been as unstoppable machine in the past three months, arriving in Paris on a 28-match winning streak that has netted the Qatar Open, Indian Wells, Miami Open, Stuttgart Open and Italian Open trophies.
Świątek, who has lost just one set in her last 19 matches, is a phenomenally short $1.91 to salute again at the French Open.
Way back on the second line of betting at $13 are 2018 champion Simona Halep and sixth seed Ons Jabeur, who reached the finals of the Charleston, Madrid and Italian Opens recently. Defending champion Barbora Krejcikova is the second seed but has not played in almost three months and has blown out to $34.
Halep and Świątek are on a fourth-round collision course, while third seed Paula Badosa and seventh seed Aryna Sabalenka shape as their most likely quarter-final opponent options.
The list of players in the bottom half of the draw – and thus cannot meet Świątek until the final – include Jabeur, fourth seed and 2021 semi-finalist Maria Sakkari, Krejcikova, fifth seed Anett Kontaveit, 2016 champ Garbine Muguruza and unseeded Naomi Osaka.
Osaka made the Miami Open final and despite never making it past the third round at Roland Garros, where she dramatically withdrew before the second round last year, the four-time major winner will undoubtedly grab a big chunk of the attention.
The Russia Furore
French Open organisers have avoided taking Wimbledon’s drastic and controversial step of banning Russian and Belarusian players over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Roland-Garros’ geopolitical sidestepping allows polarising world No.2 Daniil Medvedev, the equally tempestuous seventh-ranked Andrey Rublev and world No.24 Karen Khachanov – all French Open quarter-
finalists in recent years – along with world No.39 and 2021 Australian Open semi-finalist Aslan Karatsev to line up in the men’s draw.
Meanwhile, world No.7 Aryna Sabalenka, two-time Australian Open winner Victoria Azarenka, who is ranked 15th, and top-30 players Daria Kasatkina, Liudmila Samsonova and Veronika Kudermetova are all free to take their place in the women’s French Open draw.
Rublev and Azarenka, in particular, shape as two of the better-value options in title betting and their Wimbledon snub should provide extra motivation.
The Absentees
It appears we may have seen the last of Roger Federer as a competitor at Stade de Roland Garros – and the 40-year-old icon headlines a glittery list of withdrawals from the men’s draw.
World No.10 Matteo Berretini, No.19 Roberto Bautista Agut, No.22 Gael Monfils, 2016 French Open runner-up Andy Murray, veterans Kei Nishikori and Jeremy Chardy, and Aussie enigma Nick Kyrgios have all pulled out for various reasons.
The last three women’s French Open runners-up – Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Sofia Kenin and Marketa Vondrousova – have also withdrawn from the 2022 tournament, along with fellow big gun Elina Svitolina and rising stars Clara Tauson and Sara Sorribes Tormo.
The Dark Horses
World No.13 Hubert Hurkacz is a hard-court specialist with a 1-4 record in French Open matches, but the 2021 Wimbledon semi-finalist seems well over the odds in triple figures for the title – as does Diego Schwartzman, a semi-finalist in Paris in 2020 and a quarter-finalist last year.
Injury-prone veteran David Goffin has only just poked his nose back inside the top-50, but the Belgian has piqued the interest of tennis pundits with his Grand Prix Hasan II victory and almost toppling Nadal in Rome.
Sloane Stephens was the women’s French Open runner-up in 2018 and boasts an outstanding 28-10 record at the tournament, making the quarters in 2019 and the fourth round last year. A decent draw gives her a great chance as a $126 outsider.
The 2017 champion, Jelena Ostapenko, has enjoyed a recent renaissance after a lean couple of years, winning the Dubai Championships and getting back inside the top-15. A definite sleeper at $67.
Aussies In The Mix
Australia’s top-ranked women’s player, Ajla Tomljanovic made her name by storming to the fourth round on French Open debut in 2014 and enjoyed a career-best Wimbledon quarter-final run last year. She has been in solid recent form but face’s a difficult first-up assignment against fifth seed Anett Kontaveit.
If Tomljanovic progresses, she could face compatriot Astra Sharma – who has a much more palatable opening match-up with Varvara Gracheva – in the second round. Wildcard Daria Saville, who will line up against a qualifier in the first round before a potential date with Petra Kvitova, is the only other confirmed Aussie in the women’s draw.
On the men’s side of the fence, Alex de Minaur is the 19th seed and has been dealt a handy early draw. The $151 longshot meets world No.63 Hugo Gaston first up, then would be guaranteed to face a qualifier in the second round. Denis Shapovalov is a possible third-round opponent, while Tsitsipas looms in the Round of 16.
Jeremy Duckworth is in the same section of the draw as de Minaur, who has warmed up for the French Open with a semi-final run in Lyon. Early wins would give Aussies Thanasi Kokkinakis (second round) and John Millman (third round) a chance to knock off Alcaraz.
Jordan Thompson has been stitched up with a first-round clash against Nadal, while Alexei Popyrin could get a crack at the clay-court GOAT if he overcomes Fabio Fognini and likely second-round opponent, 26th seed Botic van de Zandschulp.
The Early Blockbusters
Though Thompson could prove tricky, Nadal looks set to face his first serious trial in the second round against protected ranking entrant Stan Wawrinka. The pair met in the 2017 final – with Rafa winning in straight sets – while Swiss stalwart Wawrinka (2015) is the only player in the past 12 years to win the French Open aside from Nadal and Djokovic.
Ninth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime will have his work cut out against Karatsev in the second round if both players win their respective opening assignments against qualifiers. Two-time French Open runner-up Dominic Thiem and Khachanov are also on a second-round collision course.
In one stacked women’s section, 14th seed Belinda Bencic and former US Open champ Bianca Andreescu are set to duel in the second round, while Naomi Osaka locks horns with 2019 semi-finalist Amanda Anisimova in the first round.
Otherwise there’s nothing too earth-shattering in the women’s draw until the tournament gets into the last 16, though an all-American second-round showdown between ninth seed Danielle Collins and 2016 quarter-finalist Shelby Rogers would hold some intrigue.
Ons Jabeur could meet Petra Kvitova in the third round, while in the same section Angelique Kerber and Emma Radacanu are also potential Round of 64 opponents. Struggling 10th seed Muguruza faces a difficult first-up clash with Estonia’s Kaia Kanepi, the 36-year-old 2022 Australian Open quarter-final fairytale story.