What a way to finish the home and away season!
23 rounds down and an epic Sunday, we’re finally at the finals.
Fortunately, we have a week off to gather our thoughts, take a breath and get ourselves up and about for a huge September.
As always, our five-leg multi of hindsight that is Five Lessons Learned is good to go for another week.
Carlton fans, log off now.
(1) A case of the Blues
A lot will be said about Carlton’s missed opportunity, blowing a finals berth by the smallest of margins.
Some say it’s a tragedy, and supporters of other clubs with long memories may think that it’s karma.
Either way, spare a thought for the following Ladbrokes Punters:
576 backed the Blues to make the eight, almost a dead cert at most stages during the season.
172 backed the Blues for the top four
1981 backed the Blues to win the flag (that number also being a Blues premiership year)
If you are a Carlton supporter and reading this along with all the other Monday hot-takes, please log off now, otherwise, you’re in for more punishment.
(2) Dees look primed
They say timing is everything and Melbourne looks set to resume normal programming for the finals.
The Demons did it easy over the Lions with a whopping 58-point win, and while they have been 5-6 in the last 11 games, Melbourne’s form in recent weeks reminds us that the reigning premiers are good to go for the business end of the season.
Should Melbourne produce anything like they did on Friday night against the Lions, good luck to anyone that faces them.
(3) Can we trust Geelong?
The Cats have a hoodoo.
A week one finals hoodoo.
Geelong has finished on top of the ladder, is on a hot streak of form winning 13 on the trot and is stacked with talent.
Yet, the Cats week one finals performances in recent years haven’t been great.
Despite playing finals just about every year, the Cats haven’t won a Qualifying or Elimination final since 2016 and have lost their past five week one finals matchups.
Their clash against Collingwood at the MCG on the Saturday twilight should be epic, and you’d think Geelong should be able to get the job done – but one thing we have learned from season 2022 is to never, ever write off the Magpies.
Geelong is $1.40 favourites over Collingwood at $3 in our market for the game.
(4) How about the Swans?
Despite a spirited comeback in the last from the Saints, Sydney has secured the double chance and seem to still be under the radar despite some impressive performances.
While they missed a chance to secure two home finals at the SCG, heading to the ‘G of the MC variety to play the Demons should hold no fear for the Swans.
When the two sides met back in Round 12 of this season, Sydney managed to knock off the Demons by 12-points in one of the games of season 2022.
The Swans are the $2.75 underdogs to upset the Demons ($1.46) and a solid $5.50 to win the flag.
(5) Beware the Tigers
If any team is to win this year’s premiership from outside the top four, it’s going to be Richmond.
The Tigers made it 13-straight against the Bombers and have 11 wins from their past 16 games, with four defeats by a combined total of 15-points.
Richmond is just getting going, and the prospect of some bloke that wears the number 4 jumper returning for finals is a daunting sight for anyone who faces them.
No one wants to play Richmond in this year’s finals series, and Brisbane has drawn them.
While the game is at The Gabba, that ground holds nothing but fond memories rather than fear, given it was the sight of their most recent premiership.
The $11 odds to win the flag from outside the top four may be tempting.