NRL Round 5 opens with three showdowns between 2022 finalists. The Saturday schedule features the top-three bolters taking on the three favourites for the spoon, while the Sharks and Cowboys are chasing two in a row for the first time this season against the Warriors and Bulldogs, respectively.
See where the value lies in eight intriguing match-ups this weekend.
Coming off an epic, pressure-relieving maiden win, the schedule doesn’t get much easier for Parramatta as it faces its third straight Thursday-nighter against the team coming off the bye.
The Eels showed the qualities that carried them into a grand final six months ago to upset the Panthers in golden point.
After conceding 64 points in the previous two rounds, their defence was superb, their completion rate was remarkable and Mitch Moses, fresh from his contract saga concluding, kicked brilliantly all night before landing the extra-time field goal. Hooker Brendan Hands was also a revelation on debut.
Sydney Roosters’ customarily sluggish start to the season – a lost to the Dolphins and a tight win over the Warriors – enjoyed a Round 3 upswing courtesy of a come-from-behind grudge-match defeat of Souths.
Joseph Suaalii’s rugby union defection may have created a distraction, while Joey Manu is out suspended which brings Drew Hutchison into the centres this week and Corey Allan onto the bench. Junior Paulo’s ban sees Wiremu Greig start for the Eels and Jack Murchie return to the interchange.
The Roosters are 13-5 against the Eels since 2009, but last season’s two encounters were split. The Roosters won 31-24 in Magic Round before the blue-and-golds turned the tables 26-16 five weeks later at home. The Eels are hunting their first away win over the Tricolours since 2008.
This shapes as yet another tight Thursday night clash (all four this season have been decided by six points or less, with two going to golden point) and the $2.55 underdog Eels are the value option after last week’s breakthrough, given the Roosters are yet to genuinely hit their straps in 2023.
Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (+5.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EELS WIN / OVER 39.5 POINTS / MAIKA SIVO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAXSON PAULO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.07
A clash with a Penrith Panthers side coming off a loss is particularly poorly-timed for 1-3 Canberra Raiders outfit that already looks to be in a bit of strife.
Despite losing Jamal Fogarty to illness and Jack Wighton to the sin-bin, a 24-14 loss to the battling Knights last Sunday was a jarring result for a team that hopes to be playing finals footy again in 2023.
The usually freewheeling Canberra attack is struggling, with a lack of second-phase and impetus from the fullback spot with Xavier Savage still sidelined key. Fogarty returns but Matt Frawley stays in the halves with marquee man Wighton suspended. Jordan Rapana is also back from suspension.
The Panthers won’t be happy with a 1-2 start, but they were again tough and gritty in their golden point defeat to the Eels. Zac Hosking was superb as a late replacement for Liam Martin (who remains out with a hamstring injury) and Nathan Cleary’s last-gasp field goal equaliser was insane.
Pocket dynamo Sunia Turuva has been a revelation in Taylan May’s wing spot, but the Panthers’ inability to rack up points may start to become a concern. The premiers have conceded less points per game than any team but they rank 15th for points scored per game.
Luke Garner gets a rest this week, with Scott Sorensen getting a back-row start. Tyrone Peachey receives a bench call-up with Soni Luke (HIA) missing.
The Panthers have won eight of their last 10 against the Raiders, including the last four straight overall by margins of 16-plus and the last three in Canberra.
Last season the defending champs romped to a 36-6 home win in Round 7 and a side missing Cleary and Luai pumped the Raiders 26-6 at GIO Stadium – the infamous (original) ‘weak-gutted dog’ night.
How the Raiders manufacture points against the Panthers’ cast-iron defence without Wighton looks a near-impossible puzzle for Ricky Stuart to solve. A five-day turnaround doesn’t help their cause and a 9-3 record at GIO Stadium since the start of 2022 won’t be enough to save them.
Tip: Back Panthers to Win / Under 40.5 Total Points Double @ $2.25
SGM: PANTHERS BY 11-20 / RAIDERS UNDER 12.5 TOTAL POINTS / STEPHEN CRICHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $44.21
Souths and Melbourne both head into Round 5 with 2-2 records, having ended two-game slides with wins last weekend.
The Rabbitohs honoured John Sattler’s memory with a stirring 13-12 golden point defeat of Manly, featuring the return to form of Cody Walker and an ice-cool extra-time finish from Lachlan Ilias. Hame Sele returns to bolster a depleted pack this week.
The Storm looked much better for Cameron Munster’s return – despite Jahrome Hughes’ suspension absence – to get the job done against the struggling Tigers 24-12.
It’s a game they should have really put to bed early, though, and an error-strewn second half indicates there’s still plenty to do before the Storm return to anywhere near NRL benchmark status.
Melbourne boasts an unbelievable 31-6 all-time record against Souths. But the Rabbitohs snapped a seven-match losing streak in the rivalry with a 24-12 victory at Accor Stadium in Round 19 last year.
Souths haven’t had a better chance than this to register back-to-back wins over Melbourne for the first time. A tough one to pick, but with no Hughes or Nelson Asofa-Solomona it’s hard to get too excited about the Storm with a 5.5-point start.
Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to win by 1-12 @ $2.80
SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / UNDER 41.5 POINTS / ALEX JOHNSTON FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD TRYSCORER / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $46.60
Manly take another home game to Mudgee, where the club has racked up handsome wins over Gold Coast (36-0) and Canberra (25-6) in the past two seasons. The Sea Eagles will be confident of a similarly convincing result against depleted but plucky Newcastle on Saturday.
Suffering their first loss of the season, the Sea Eagles were far from disgraced in a 13-12 golden point result against Souths in which Daly Cherry-Evans, Tom Trbojevic and back-row tyros Haumole Olakau’atu and Kelma Tuilagi all shone.
Tolu Koula’s knee injury is a blow, but Morgan Harper is an experienced – if enigmatic – centre replacement. Lachlan Croker is back from a one-week layoff at Karl Lawton’s expense.
Newcastle is 2-2 despite a raft of injury problems. The Knights produced their best performance of the season to upset Canberra 24-14 with breakout fullback star Lachlan Miller the catalyst in an encouraging display from the spine. The injection of winger Greg Marzhew garnered two tries.
The Knights have lost Kurt Mann to a head injury, with Jack Johns to start at lock.
After winning only two of its previous seven against Newcastle, Manly won both 2022 encounters – 30-6 on the road in Round 5 and 42-12 at home in Round 18. Ominously, the Sea Eagles cruised to both wins with Tom Trbojevic sidelined.
The Knights have leaked 20.5 points per game against a string of opponents with limited offensive capabilities. DCE, ‘Turbo’ and Josh Schuster will be frothing at the prospect of taking on this defence on a dry, warm afternoon and we could see a bit of a high-scorer unfold.
Newcastle is a hefty 13.5-point underdog but has failed to cover in both losses this season.
Tip: Back Over 43.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: SEA EAGLES BY 11-20 POINTS / 41-50 TOTAL POINTS / TOM TRBOJEVIC TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES/ GREG MARZHEW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $134.68
Following a promising start, St George Illawarra’s season has shown genuine signs of completely unravelling in their last hour and a half of football, with no team under more scrutiny ahead of Round 5.
After a tied scoreline with 10 minutes left turned into a 40-18 blowout at the hands of the Broncos, the Dragons completely capitulated in the second half against the Sharks last Sunday, conceding the last 34 points of the match in a 40-8 defeat.
The class of Ben Hunt and the grunt-work of Blake Lawrie were among few positives to scrape from the derby beatdown. Anthony Griffin, with the walls closing in on him, has named the same 17 this week.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins remain the toast of the NRL. Expected to finally get a dose of premiership reality from the red-hot Broncos in Round 4 with Felise Kaufusi out suspended, the newcomers were unbelievably brave in an 18-12 thriller.
Sean O’Sullivan is a huge loss, but Anthony Milford did enough to suggest he can form a competent halves pairing with rookie Isaiya Katoa. The Dolphins also get Herman Ese’ese and Jeremy Marshall-King back this week, though Tesi Niu is out and replaced on the wing by debutant Jack Bostock.
The 3-1 Dolphins’ surprise early success has been built on defensive resilience – conceding just 17.5 points per game – and they will continue to keep it simple as they navigate further line-up changes. The Dolphins are 4-0 against the line in 2023 and the Saints offer no value as a favourite here.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (+2) @ $1.90
SGM: DOLPHINS WIN / UNDER 42.5 PONTS / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW FIRST OR LAST TRYSCORER @ $16.42
Sitting alone as the only unbeaten team in the NRL, Brisbane Broncos are the shortest favourites of Round 5 ($1.13) against the only club in the premiership still searching for a win, hapless Wests Tigers.
As they did in Round 1 at Penrith, the flamboyant Broncos again proved their ability to grind out wins when necessary in an 18-12 derby epic against the Dolphins. Reece Walsh, Adam Reynolds and Kotoni Staggs provided the flashes of brilliance, but the victory was underpinned by mental toughness.
No pack is going better than the Carrigan- and Haas-led unit, while the Broncos are ranked second in the comp for both most points scored and least points conceded per game.
The 0-4 Tigers, meanwhile, are showing no signs of improvement. Perhaps a positive can be drawn from the fact they haven’t lost a game by more than 12 points, but their attack remains a complete mess.
Further evidenced in their 24-12 defeat to the Storm in Round 4, Luke Brooks’ confidence looks shot and Adam Doueihi’s shift to fullback is baffling. Daine Laurie, after getting nine minutes last week, has been left out of the 17 altogether, as have Alex Seyfarth and Shawn Blore.
Jake Simpkin, Justin Matamua and Starford To’a are the new faces on the pine, but the Round 4 starting 13 stays intact.
The Broncos have a dominant 21-9-1 record against the Tigers since the joint venture’s NRL entry in 2000. But the Tigers have won the teams’ last four clashes – averaging 36 points and a winning margin of 19 points – including a 32-18 upset at Suncorp last year that sparked the Broncos’ dramatic late slide.
That trend looks certain to come to a screeching halt in Brisbane on Saturday night, as does the Tigers’ somewhat surprising effort in conceding no more than 26 points in a game.
Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 19+ @ $2.05
SGM: BRONCOS BY 21-30 POINTS / BRONCOS OVER 28.5 TOTAL POINTS / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / EZRA MAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $18.19
Cronulla Sharks’ season can finally get cracking with Nicho Hynes back on deck and instantly reproducing his Dally M-winning form of 2022, but the surprise-packet Warriors will fiercely defend their top-four billing with newfound resilience that is quickly becoming the team’s trademark.
The Sharks improved to 2-2 with a 40-8 rout of the Dragons at Kogarah after a close-fought first half. Hynes was on another level, toying with the Saints in his first outing of the season. Craig Fitzgibbon’s side looked the mirror image of the outfit that surged to second on the ladder last year.
Meanwhile, the Warriors overcame yet another sluggish start and an eight-point second-half deficit that was helped along by a highly dubious Bunker call, again charging down the straight to pip the Bulldogs 16-14 for their third win of the season.
Shaun Johnson proved the difference in a vintage showing, while the efforts of Jazz Tevaga, Jackson Ford and Dylan Walker were also crucial in an injury-hit line-up. They are yet to concede a try in the last 20 minutes of a match.
Wayde Egan is a huge in for the Warriors, but Te Maire Martin has been ruled out and replaced at five-eighth by Ronald Volkman. Tohu Harris (knee) is a 50-50 chance at best, with Josh Curran the likely replacement. The Sharks only change sees Braydon Trindall return on the bench for Oregon Kaufusi.
Cronulla has had the wood on the Warriors for a decade, winning 15 of the clubs’ last 19 clashes. Last season a 12-man Sharks side (who also had a player sin-binned) thumped the Warriors 29-10 at home and cruised to a 38-16 win in Redcliffe a month later after Nathan Brown’s exit.
The Hynes factor inspires plenty of confidence in a Sharks home win this Sunday, but they look very short at $1.28 against a gritty, in-form opponent. The Warriors are conceding just 14.5 points per game, lead the comp in line-breaks and set completion, and are 4-0 against the line in 2023.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+11.5) @ $1.90
SGM: SHARKS BY 1-10 / UNDER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / SHAUN JOHNSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SIONE KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $73.34
Round 5 closes with arguably the hardest game to call between 2-2 pair Canterbury and North Queensland.
The Bulldogs’ two-game winning run ended in Auckland, their lack of a genuine halves general exposed again in a spirited but frustrating 16-14 loss to the Warriors. Effort and enterprise are certainly not lacking, but polish and concentration is.
The Cowboys arrested a two-game slide with a 24-12 home victory over the Titans in Round 4. They finally shook their second-half woes, outscoring the visitors 18-0 after the break after scoring just seven points to 40 conceded in the second stanza across the first three rounds.
Tom Dearden and Valentine Holmes exploded after indifferent starts to the year, while the pack returned to form after being embarrassed by the Warriors.
The Cowboys have lost Jeremiah Nanai to suspension and James Tamou, Murray Tuilagi and Gehamat Shibasaki to injury. Peta Hiku returns from suspension and Brendan Elliot gets the nod on the wing, while Mitchell Dunn and debutant are new faces on the bench.
The Cowboys have won nine of their last 12 against the Bulldogs. After a dour 6-4 Bulldogs win in Round 1 in Townsville last year, the Cowboys chalked up a 28-14 late-season victory in Bundaberg.
North Queensland’s list of absentees – which still includes fullback Scott Drinkwater – is the big worry ahead of this road trip. Canterbury is a slight favourite but hasn’t shown enough killer instinct or 80-minute consistency to back with a great deal of confidence.
Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less than 6.5 Points @ $2.55
SGM: OVER 40.5 TOTAL POINTS / COWBOYS +1.5 / VILIAME KIKAU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / VALENTINE HOLMES ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $28.39