One month into AFL Season 2023 and we’re already separating the contenders from pretenders, writing teams off, declaring certain award winners a given and subject to some thrilling finishes.
What did the Punters get out of the Easter Weekend?
With eight out of the nine games already done and dusted here’s a five-leg multi of hindsight that we like to call five lessons learned.
(1) Testing Times for Tigers
Fancied by a fair few experts and pundits to be right up in the mix again, there’s much to be said about Richmond’s start to season 2023.
With one win, one draw and two losses along with the fact that Tom Lynch will be missing in action for at least two months (and a cameo at the tribunal), Richmond faces a tough two weeks facing Sydney on Friday night followed by Melbourne on Anzac eve.
Apart from a 20-minute burst of dominance in the second quarter on Saturday, the Tigers were smashed by the Bulldogs around the clearances and kicked just two second-half goals.
Yet again the Tigers lost by a small margin, adding more to the theory of “Richmond beating Richmond”, from a Punters perspective, taking the Tigers in the tri-bet margins option could prove to be a profitable play, as it has been for the good part of 18 months.
(2) Saints v Blues Grand Final? It could happen!
“But it’s only Round 4” I hear you say, deer reader, but let’s entertain this idea just for the fun of it.
The two clubs with the longest premiership droughts (St Kilda 56 years, Carlton 27 years) are first and second on the ladder!
Ross Lyon’s Saints are unbeaten, top of the ladder and St Kilda fans are starting just get a glint of optimism, or are at least enjoying themselves for the moment.
The Saints are $15 to win the flag, $8 to make the Grand Final, $3 to make top four and $1.55 to finish in the eight in our futures markets.
As for second-placed Carlton, the blues are $8 for the flag, $4 to be there in that one day in September, $2.20 for the top four and $1.25 to make the eight.
Will we party like it’s 1995 or bring in the spirit of ’66?
Or will we see scenes like that of the 1996 Ansett Cup Grand Final when the Saints beat Carlton at Waverley Park in March?
Only time will tell.
(3) Sheez’a bloody good player
This blog has already declared North Melbourne young gun Harry Sheezel as this years Rising Star winner.
If you haven’t yet already, take the $2 on offer before he ends up like Winx at $1.10
Brisbane’s Will Ashcroft might provide some competition at $2.20, but Sheezel just keeps on delivering.
The number 3 draft pick had a whopping 37 disposals against Carlton on Good Friday and already averaged 31.8 disposals per game – taking him for either 25+ or even 30+ disposals is a must for any same-game multi.
Perhaps the debate over who is the rising star of 2023 will be settled this Saturday in the Adelaide Hills when Sheezel’s Kangas take on Ashcroft’s Lions.
(4) Pipped at the Post
Every punter has been there, thinking the one you backed has made it past the post only for it to be pipped in a photo finish.
In one of the games of the year (to date), Sydney’s Ollie Florent had a chance to kick after the siren to win the game, thinking it had got through only to have his former Sydney teammate Aliir Aliir produce some of the best defense you’ll ever see, stopping the ball before it crossed the line.
As the ball was sailing through, the Swans players celebrated but it just wasn’t to be.
It happens to the best of us.
(5) Gather Round will be Magic
When the draw first came out for Gather Round, some were quick to critique the games that had been scheduled for the all-in footy feast in Adelaide saying the fixtures were ordinary.
People were quick to judge on season 2022 standards but at least six out of the nine games slated for Gather Round will all have an impact on how the top eight will be shaped in the early part of the season.
Thursday nights 7th placed Crows ($2.10) v 2nd place Blues ($1.75) clash starts the weekend off with a bang, the Tigers ($2.15) up against Sydney ($1.70) the following evening is a fascinating encounter, even the Lions ($1.20) taking on North ($4.25) up in the Adelaide Hills on Saturday afternoon has some intrigue.
But if that’s not enough, the Adelaide Oval double header starts with a top-four clash between Melbourne ($1.22) and Essendon ($4.15) followed by Port ($1.53) hosting the Western Bulldogs ($2.50) – both sides coming off massive wins from the previous weekend.
And just to top it off, the top-of-the-ladder Saints ($3.30) face the Pies ($1.33) on Sunday twilight which should top off one of the great weekends of footy.
Anyone who’s headed to Adelaide this weekend is in for a treat!
*Odds correct at the time of publishing.