Another mouth-watering array of fixtures awaits rugby league punters and fans in NRL Round 7.
Wayne Bennett lines up against the fourth of his former clubs as the Dolphins host Souths, while some of the premiership’s most bitter rivalries resume in the form of the Melbourne-Manly and Parramatta-Canterbury clashes that bookend the weekend.
More Queensland derby action with Brisbane heading down the highway to take on Gold Coast, while the Cronulla-Sydney Roosters and Warriors-North Queensland showdowns feature exclusively last-start losers in crunch games.
Surprise packet Newcastle welcomes rampaging Penrith to town on Saturday and the Sunday docket gets underway with an encounter between Canberra and St George Illawarra that could prove season-defining for both.
The 4-2 Dolphins continue to defy the experts, bouncing back from their only poor showing of a stellar debut season to date – a flat 38-12 defeat to the Dragons in Round 5 – with a stirring 32-22 victory over the Cowboys in Townsville.
Despite Jesse Bromwich joining Felise Kaufusi on the sidelines, the Dolphins’ engine-room performance, led by Tom Gilbert, was outstanding.
A first-half Jamayne Isaako hat-trick spearheaded a 26-6 lead, while brilliant fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow’s late second try sealed the result after an admirable defensive rearguard in the second stanza after errors began creeping into their game.
Isaiya Katoa is settling into first grade very quickly, alleviating the loss to Sean O’Sullivan and Anthony Milford.
The 3-3 South Sydney Rabbitohs truly flexed their offensive muscle for the first time in 2023 last weekend, blitzing the Bulldogs 50-16 with five tries in the last quarter.
Latrell Mitchell – under fire for a quiet showing in the previous round’s 18-10 loss to Melbourne – and Campbell Graham finished with hat-tricks, while Cody Walker and Lachlan Ilias were in a good groove.
Souths managed a golden point win over Manly in Round 4, but the knock on them is they’ve otherwise fallen short in tough grinds against quality opposition.
With the return of Bromwich, the Dolphins will look to drag the firepower-laden Rabbitohs into an arm wrestle.
The Dolphins have lost Jarrod Wallace, while Robert Jennings comes in for Edrick Lee, Jai Arrow returns from a five-week layoff in time to replace Tevita Tatola (knee) and Alex Johnston (concussion) also comes back for the Rabbitohs.
With Souths yet to win back-to-back games in 2023 and the Dolphins going 5-1 against the line (including three wins as head-to-head underdogs), the hosts’ value at Suncorp Stadium is hard to resist.
Tip: Back the Dolphins to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY 6.5 POINTS OR LESS / CAMPBELL GRAHAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HAMISO TABUAI-FIDOW ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $15.78
Two heavyweights with a point to prove in Round 7.
Cronulla went into the bye at 2-3 off a harrowing collapse against the Warriors, blowing a 20-0 lead in a last-gasp 32-30 home loss.
Compounding the result, they lost Dale Finucane to suspension and Toby Rudolf to injury.
The Sharks have only genuinely clicked once in 2023 – in their Nicho Hynes-inspired 40-8 beatdown of the Dragons in Round 4.
They’ll be boosted by the return of Wade Graham and Oregon Kaufusi to the bench this week, with Royce Hunt and Cameron McInnes to start for Rudolf and Finucane.
The 3-2 Sydney Roosters’ three-match winning streak came to an abrupt halt in Round 6, crashing 28-8 to Melbourne last Thursday.
Errors, a lack of defensive resolve and Victor Radley’s cheap sin-binning made for a dismal night in Melbourne for the second favourites for the title.
Like the Sharks, the Roosters put in their most complete performance of the season in their previous outing, putting away the Eels 28-20 in a fashion that was more convincing than the scoreline suggested.
James Tedesco (head knock) returns, with Joey Manu reverting to centre and Drew Hutchison going to the bench. Matt Lodge – missing with a facial fracture since Round 1 – is a big in on the bench with Fletcher Baker (concussion) ruled out.
Meanwhile, the Sharks confront a seven-match losing streak against the Roosters, crashing to a 36-16 home loss in Round 12 last season despite surging to a top-two finish.
They haven’t got closer than eight points to the Tricolours – or scored more than 18 points against them – since 2017.
The Roosters are narrow $1.75 favourites as of Wednesday and this has a real flip-of-the-coin feel about it.
With all five of the Sharks’ games producing 44-plus points, the over looks a more enticing option with neither high-profile outfit producing anything like their best consistently in 2023.
Tip: Back Over 40.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: ROOSTERS WIN / ROOSTERS OVER 20.5 POINTS / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRITON NIKORA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.51
The latest instalment of one of the NRL’s most fiery rivalries sees Manly at an uncomfortable juncture, haemorrhaging points over the past fortnight, hit by injuries and hosting a heavyweight opponent that has slipped nicely into top gear in recent weeks.
The Sea Eagles were lucky to leave Mudgee with a share of the spoils after a 32-all draw with the Knights, before being hammered 42-12 at Penrith last Saturday.
They were fortunate the scoreline was not more embarrassing – the Panthers scored six tries in the first 52 minutes before easing off.
Manly, now outside the Top 8 with a 2-1-2 record and conceding 25 points per game, missed a horrific 42 tackles in the rout.
Meanwhile, Reuben Garrick has been ruled out and replaced on the wing by tyro Raymond Tuaimalo Vaega.
Aaron Woods and Toafofoa Sipley come onto Anthony Siebold’s bench for Karl Lawton and Sean Keppie.
Josh Schuster is listed in the reserves, with last week’s five-eighth, Kaeo Weekes, on the bench and Cooper Johns in the No.6. There’s also a cloud over Tom Trbojevic (back spasms).
Melbourne improved to 4-2 with a dominant 28-8 win over Sydney Roosters, an impressive follow-up statement after defending their way to an 18-10 upset of Souths in Round 5.
Cameron Munster and Harry Grant were sublime, while Jahrome Hughes returned to complete the Storm’s marquee spine triumvirate for the first time since Round 1.
Munster will switch to fullback this week with Nick Meaney (head knock) out, with Jonah Pezet coming into the halves.
Manly snapped a six-match losing streak (all by double-digit margins against Melbourne in a 36-30 thriller at home in Round 16 last year, having gone down 28-8 at AAMI Park just four weeks earlier.
That result aside, the Sea Eagles have largely struggled to beat the best in recent seasons and the Storm look primed to go on a run until the Origin drain arrives.
Melbourne has made an art form of shutting down Manly dangerman Tom Trbojevic, while in his only other NRL start at fullback in the past five years Cameron Munster bagged a hat-trick against Gold Coast late last year.
The Storm look the goods to win and cover here.
Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.90
SGM: STORM WIN / SEA EAGLES UNDER 17.5 POINTS / CAMERON MUNSTER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ELIESA KATOA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $25.46
Saturday’s trio of matches kicks off with a crunch game in Auckland between an injury-ravaged Warriors side striving to bounce back from their least impressive showing of a 2023 renaissance and a North Queensland Cowboys outfit already at risk of their season slipping away.
The 4-2 Warriors’ surge and the 2-4 Cowboys’ decline gathered steam when the teams met in Townsville in Round 3, while the Warriors rallied from an early 12-0 deficit to power to a 26-12 victory, their defensive improvement and ability to lift in the latter stages of matches coming to the fore.
But following an emotional comeback win over the Sharks, the Warriors’ poor starts finally came back to bite them in a 34-24 loss to the Knights in Round 6.
Frustrating errors and penalties saw them trail 22-6 at halftime and another second-half revival ultimately fell short.
On the bright side, Shaun Johnson was again brilliant, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad shone at the back and Tom Ale had a breakout game up front, but key men Te Maire Martin and Wayde Egan are out, with Dylan Walker moving to five-eighth and Freddy Lussick coming in at hooker.
Tohu Harris (knee) is again named after withdrawing late in the week for the past two rounds.
The Cowboys bounced back with an encouraging win over the Titans in Round 4 but have since lost to the Bulldogs in golden point in Sydney and gone down 32-22 to the Dolphins at home.
Last week they clawed back from 26-6 down but ultimately couldn’t capitalise on a glut of second-half ball.
The defensive steel Todd Payten instilled last year is deserting them – missing 45 tackles last week – while their usually potent attack has been painfully disjointed.
Scott Drinkwater’s second game back and the return of Murray Taulagi and Jeremiah Nanai should help improve the latter area.
The Warriors have now won six of the teams’ last nine encounters, the Cowboys prevailed in their last visit to Auckland back in 2019 but are just 7-14 at Mt Smart Stadium since 1995, with only three wins in their last 11 trips across the Tasman.
The Warriors have overcome a rotten run of injury luck all season with a steadfast next-man-up mentality, while Johnson’s form gives the home side a decisive edge in a pick ’em clash against a Cowboys side that has barely put anything more than a complete 40 minutes on the park in 2023.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Win @ $1.87
SGM: WARRIORS BY 1-12 / UNDER 42.5 POINTS / JOSH CURRAN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MURRAY TAULAGI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $70.33
Newcastle Knights have won plenty of admirers for their efforts in racking up a three wins and a draw in the face of low expectations and a high injury toll, but a visit from the red-hot Penrith Panthers – on the back of more personnel setbacks – provides the ultimate litmus test of their credentials.
The fast-starting Knights held off the in-form Warriors 34-24 last Sunday with Tyson Frizell and Lachie Miller leading the way.
Their attacking shape caused major headahces for the Warriors’ edge defence – with Dom Young and Greg Marzhew cashing in – and they got home despite losing yardage.
The win was soured by hooker and captain Jayden Brailey’s season-ending knee injury, however, with pitches Phoenix Crossland into the No.9. Tyson Gamble makes a timely return at five-eighth with Kalyn Ponga still a week away.
The Panthers were involved in a series of low-scoring grinds against good opposition over the first month of the season, but they’ve opened their shoulders with sizzling wins over the Raiders (53-12) and Sea Eagles (42-12) in the past fortnight.
Dylan Edwards’ four-try haul against Manly was the headliner for the premiers, but it was Nathan Cleary who was chiefly responsible for picking the opposition apart. Absolutely ruthless.
Newcastle has mustered one win and one draw from its last 12 matches against Penrith, losing the last three straight by 18-plus.
Last season the Panthers cruised to a 38-20 Round 3 win in Bathurst over a 12-man Knights and racked up a dominant 42-6 result in Newcastle in Round 14. In both games, all four Penrith wingers and centres scored tries.
Plucky as they’ve been, the Knights have leaked plenty of points (23 per game) while the Panthers are yet to concede more than 17 in a game.
The Panthers are in an ominous mood with and without the ball – they’ll eventually break the hosts’ unexpectedly strong backbone here.
Tip: Back the Panthers to Win by 11-20 Points @ $3.15
SGM: PANTHERS/PANTHERS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / PANTHERS OVER 28.5 POINTS / IZACK TAGO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / DYLAN EDWARDS ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.62
Another week, another Queensland derby in the NRL – and this shapes as a fascinating contest on the Gold Coast with the Titans coming off a gallant win and the Broncos regrouping from their first loss of an otherwise flawless campaign.
The Titans overcame the absence of spine duo Kieran Foran and AJ Brimson to edge the Dragons 20-18 as their replacements came up trumps – fullback Jayden Campbell scored a try in a fine all-round performance – while five-eighth Toby Sexton scored a brilliant late match-winner to move them to 3-2.
It was Phillip Sami’s blockbusting display from the wing stealing the show, while British hooker Kruise Leeming immediately proved a solid addition. Foran returns this week at Sexton’s expense.
The Broncos came out flat against the Raiders and never got out of second gear, consequently going down 20-14 at home to a struggling opponent, the attacking execution that carried them to 5-0 went out the window.
Thomas Flegler (head knock) has been ruled out for a week, with Corey Jensen moving into the starting side and Kobe Hetherington joining the bench.
The last six derbies have been split three apiece, with the Broncos winning the last three. In 2022, the Broncos won 35-24 at home in Round 12 and 16-12 on the Gold Coast six weeks later.
The Broncos are in an unfamiliar spot and will be eager to make a statement after last week’s disappointment, but they must be prepared to earn it against an unfancied Titans side that has led in every game this season and the visitors look to be giving a few too many points away at the line here.
Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: BRONCOS BY 1-12 / OVER 44.5 POINTS / HERBIE FARNWORTH ANYTIME TRYSCORER / PHILLIP SAMI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $22.57
Canberra is looking to consolidate after turning around a dismal start to 2023 with one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, while St George Illawarra has again been pitched into a unwelcome spotlight after a loss.
The 2-4 Raiders responded to leaking 53 points at home to Penrith with a stoic 20-14 victory over previously unbeaten Brisbane on the road.
Jamal Fogarty, Josh Papalii and Corey Horsburgh stood tall for a side missing marquee duo Jack Wighton and Joe Tapine, who both return this week.
Veteran Jarrod Croker’s return was a spiritual shot in the arm for the Raiders, while Nick Cotric is back in time to replace the injured Jordan Rapana this week.
The 2-3 Dragons temporarily eased the pressure on coach Anthony Griffin with a dominant 38-12 win over the Dolphins in Wollongong in Round 5.
But getting run down 20-18 at the death on the Gold Coast has ramped up speculation that ‘Hook’ is destined for the axe.
No team in the NRL gets more of a proportion of its constructive play from one player as the Dragons do Ben Hunt.
There’s too many holes in the Saints’ roster for them to be consistently competitive, though, and the loss of Francis Molo and Mikaele Ravalawa (with Zane Musgrove and Tautatu Moga coming in) will be felt.
The Raiders have won five of their last seven against the Dragons. Last season’s series was shared, the Saints grabbing a wildly controversial 12-10 win in Wollongong in Round 16 before the Raiders bounced back 24-22 in Canberra six weeks later despite the absence of their suspended coach.
Only two of their last 10 encounters were decided by more than eight points. Meanwhile, the Dragons are chasing their first win in the capital since 2015.
Buoyed by last week’s valiant result and with the Saints’ tumult continuing, the Raiders should be able to grind out another two points on Sunday.
Tip: Back the Raiders to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.75
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 41.5 POINTS / JACK WIGHTON ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ZAC LOMAX ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.25
The Round 7 closer between traditionally bitter rivals shapes as a key one for both clubs. Parramatta averted disaster with a nervy win over Wests Tigers on Easter Monday, while Canterbury was left reeling from a Good Friday thrashing that cost them a superstar for eight weeks – and now the club has suffered another devastating injury blow.
The Eels held off the Tigers 28-22 thanks to a fast start and the class of Mitchell Moses, despite getting dominated in virtually every statistical category. It was just the second win of the season for the 2022 grand finalists – and far from an impressive one.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, slipped to 3-3 via a 50-16 capitulation to Souths, throwing in the towel during a late landslide. Josh Addo-Carr’s injury capped a jarring afternoon for Cameron Ciraldo’s side. Viliame Kikau was due to return but has suffered a pec injury in a shattering blow for player and club.
Braidon Burns gets an opportunity to fill the Bulldogs’ wing void, while Tevita Pangai Jr and Raymond Faitala-Mariner are much-needed engine-room reinforcements this week. Junior Paulo returns from suspension for the Eels, bumping Jack Murchie out of the 17.
Parramatta has dominated this grudge match over the past seven seasons, winning 11 of its last 14 against Canterbury. But last season the Bulldogs claimed a stunning 34-4 victory in Round 14, before the Eels redressed the balance via a 42-6 blowout in Round 23.
The Eels and Bulldogs have been among the more untrustworthy sides in the NRL this season. Both teams are 1-5 against the line. With that in mind, the over shapes as a better option than predicting a winner with the adversaries ranking in the NRL’s bottom five for points conceded.
Tip: Back Over 42.5 Points @ $1.90
SGM: BULLDOGS +7.5 / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER / SHAUN LANE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.49