Another week, another series of shock NRL results – and some significant changes on a ladder that features three 2022 also-rans in the top four.
Boilovers, form reversals, halftime turnarounds, golden point heartbreak and a spate of sin-binnings made for a dramatic slate of Round 7 action.
Upsets and unders
Three head-to-head underdogs – Cronulla, Manly and the Warriors – earned vital, character-laden victories in Round 7, while another four – the Dolphins, Newcastle, Gold Coast and St George Illawarra – led at halftime before being run down.
The only match that went to script from start to finish was the round-closing clash at CommBank Stadium, with warm favourites Parramatta cruising to a 30-4 win over short-handed Canterbury.
Meanwhile, after five Easter matches produced 50-plus totals, Round 7 was a big one for unders punters as stoic defence proved the overwhelming key to two competition points.
Six matches went under the total line, with only two games producing more than 36 points.
Brisbane retained its spot atop the NRL table, a long-range try in the dying seconds of the first half providing the impetus to fight back from a halftime deficit on the Gold Coast to win 43-26.
Penrith stayed in second by edging desperately unlucky Newcastle 16-15 in golden point.
Nathan Cleary kicked field goals in regulation and extra-time after Tyson Gamble had put the gallant Knights – who scored three tries to two – up with a 76th-minute one-pointer.
Despite enjoying just 43 percent possession and making 55 tackles inside their own 20-metre zone, the Warriors subdued embattled North Queensland for the second time this season, 22-14 in Auckland, the resurgent Warriors sit third, while the 2-5 Cowboys are outright 16th.
The Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Sharks all returned to the Top 8 of a super-tight NRL premiership, where just four points separate second and 15th.
Sin-bin mania
A whopping 10 players earned stints in the sin-bin during Round 7 – and several spells had major ramifications on the respective matches.
The Dolphins were still in the hunt on Thursday night despite giving up their 14-6 halftime lead, but Kenny Bromwich’s 60th-minute binning saw Souths power away to a 36-14 win with two tries against their 12-man opponents.
Sydney Roosters’ ill-discipline proved costly against Cronulla, with Nat Butcher’s hip-drop sin-binning among seven penalties conceded in the opening 20 minutes.
The Sharks clinched a 22-12 win with a Briton Nikora try following Brandon Smith’s 75th-minute sin-bin indiscretion.
Serial purveyor of professional fouls Victor Radley joined him a couple of minutes later for good measure.
Manly’s novice winger Raymond Tuaimalo Vaeaga was sat down for a late shot on Cameron Munster just before halftime, but the Sea Eagles ultimately finished on the positive side of the sin-bin ledger on Friday.
Melbourne duo Tui Kamikamica and Justin Olam were both march in the second half as Manly closed out an 18-8 win by holding the Storm scoreless after the break.
Brisbane had surged to a 22-14 lead midway through the second half and were running downhill, but skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui’s astonishingly harsh sin-binning with 19 minutes to go crushed Gold Coast’s hopes.
The Broncos ran in two tries in the next four minutes on the way to a 43-26 win.
Canberra survived the second-half sin-binnings of Nick Cotric and match-sealing hero Hudson Young to overcome a halftime deficit and hold off St George Illawarra 20-14, the Raiders’ second straight win by that scoreline.
Meanwhile, Penrith prop Spencer Leniu’s (deserved) escape on a Captain’s Challenge after being given 10 minutes late in the first half was a huge moment – Newcastle led 14-6 at the time and would have had a gift two points from in front. The Panthers eventually pegged them back to win in golden point.
Shark statement
Cronulla had plenty of soul-searching to do over the bye following a stunning collapse against the Warriors in Round 5.
Trailing Sydney Roosters 12-8 at halftime on Friday evening, the home underdogs were at a pivotal juncture.
But the Sharks finally produced the blend of grit and flash that underpinned their top-two charge in 2022, holding the Roosters scoreless after the break and scoring three tries – including blazing efforts to Ronaldo Mulitalo (45’) and Blayke Brailey (68’) – on the way to a 22-12 triumph.
Nicho Hynes was once again scintillating, while Brailey, a rejuvenated Siosifa Talakai and Briton Nikora were among the heroes of a tough victory.
The Sharks were the week’s big movers in the premiership market, shortening to $11 on the sixth line of title betting. They’re a top-value $2.75 to finish in the top four again.
Wests Tigers fans looking for a glimmer of hope for a maiden 2023 win ahead of their Round 8 clash with Manly will be taking note of the 5-1 record enjoyed by teams coming off the bye this season.
Manly muscle up
The knock of Manly in recent seasons has been an inability to step up against top-tier opposition and win tight, tough arm-wrestles.
Conceding 32 points in a draw against Newcastle and a 44-12 defeat to Penrith was far from an ideal lead-in to a Round 7 showdown with revitalised Melbourne, but Anthony Seibold’s charges found some fire and backbone to carve out an 18-8 upset.
Folding Storm wrecking-ball Justin Olam in half in the early stages set the tone for a physical and tempestuous grudge match – and it was the Sea Eagles that handled the volatile nature of the contest better.
Tom Trbojevic has previously struggled to impart his influence on matches against the Storm but he was magnificent, only shaded by Daly Cherry-Evans for man-of-the-match honours as the Sea Eagles improved to 3-0 at 4 Pines Park.
Meanwhile, Jahrome Hughes’ game unravelled and fellow Storm guns Cameron Munster and Harry Grant were largely nullified after running riot in recent weeks.
The Sea Eagles are $17 in the premiership stakes, just $1.65 to make the finals and $4.00 to finish in the top four.
Attrition rate cruelling Bulldogs’ rebuild
A 3-4 record is nothing to be too worried about in a premiership as competitive and unpredictable as the one 2023 is dishing up, but Canterbury is already at an early crossroads courtesy of a shocking injury toll and declining defensive standards.
Cameron Ciraldo’s charges won three games and suffered a narrow loss in Auckland in a four-match stretch, but since then the Bulldogs have been outscored 80 points to 20 by Souths and Parramatta amid a rapidly-filling casualty ward.
The club had already been rocked by the lengthy absences of Josh Addo-Carr (ankle, Round 15), Luke Thompson (foot, Round 16) and Viliame Kikau (pectoral, Round 18) and shorter stints on the sideline for lower-profile types Fa’amanu Brown, Chris Patolo, Franklin Pele and Braidon Burns.
Now after yesterday’s five-tries-to-one thumping at the hands of the Eels, gun outside backs Jacob Kiraz and Jake Averillo are set to miss a block of matches.
The Bulldogs face the Sharks, Dragons, Raiders, Warriors and Titans before a much-needed bye in Round 13 – all winnable games under normal circumstances.
But with their depth thinned out to breaking point, the Belmore boys could already be out of finals contention before the cavalry returns.
Canterbury – 15th on the ladder and thereabouts for points scored and conceded per game – has drifted to $81 in the premiership market and is now a $4.50 outsider to return to the finals for the first time since 2016.