The 2023 NRL Magic Round is here and the Suncorp Stadium schedule delivers a hosts of pivotal match-ups.
There’s four encounters between teams ranked ninth or high on the congested NRL ladder, while the other four fixtures present a massive opportunity for teams sitting in the bottom half to stay in touch.
See where the value lies in this Brisbane-hosted, three-day whirlwind of footy.
Magic Round gets underway with a clash between two gutsy Round 9 winners looking to stay in the mid-table scramble.
Injury-ravaged Canterbury has received relief on multiple fronts, firstly breaking a run of three heavy losses with an 18-16 defeat of St George Illawarra in Wollongong on the back of two long-range Jake Averillo tries and a concerted defensive effort.
Last week’s injured hero Braidon Burns is out but Jacob Kiraz’s early return is a massive boost for the Bulldogs. Max King is another big in for a depleted blue-and-white pack.
Canberra has improved to a 4-4 record with a three-match winning streak, chalking up a 31-30 golden point win over the Dolphins off the bye last Saturday.
The Raiders threw away an 18-point lead but got the job done at the end of a draining week in the wake of the Jack Wighton uproar.
Xavier Savage will make his first NRL appearance of 2023 on the wing, bumping Albert Hopoate out of the Raiders’ line-up, Ata Mariota also returns to the bench at Corey Harawira-Naera’s expense.
The Raiders are on a six-match winning streak against the Bulldogs, getting the result 14-4 in Canberra last year. Their 2021 Magic Round clash was a 20-18 cliff-hanger.
There was plenty to like about the Bulldogs’ turnaround last week and their line-up is significantly bolstered, but the Raiders’ ability to close out tight games over the past month – and this shapes as another one – and a stronger pack puts them in the box-seat on neutral ground.
Tip: Back the Raider to Win by 1-12 @ $2.80
SGM: RAIDERS WIN / OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / XAVIER SAVAGE ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JACOB KIRAZ ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $13.71
The standing Magic Round engagement between Manly and Brisbane sees both teams coming off jarring losses – but it’s shaping as an especially tough bounce-back proposition for the Sea Eagles.
Anthony Seibold’s rejigged side dropped from outright second to sixth courtesy of an ugly 26-10 home loss to Gold Coast last Saturday.
Taniela Paseka’s workhorse display was a rare highlight in a flat and disjointed effort that made one wonder how they beat Melbourne 18-8 a few weeks back.
Tom Trbojevic, Brad Parker and Tolutau Koula all return to the Manly backline, but Jake Trbojevic is a huge loss.
Ben Trbojevic returns to the interchange from injury, while Aaron Woods is in for the suspended Toafofoa Sipley.
The ladder-leading Broncos went into last Friday’s blockbuster minus suspended duo Ezra Mam and Payne Haas.
They stayed in the fight against Souths half a game before being overrun 32-6, Adam Reynolds playing with a overtone of distraction usually reserved for ex-teammate Cody Walker.
Mam and Dally M leader Payne Haas return this week as the Broncos look to avenge just their second defeat of the season.
The teams have met on the Friday night at Suncorp as a Manly home game – either as part of a double-header or Magic Round – for six of the past seven seasons, with the Broncos boasting a 4-2 advantage.
The Broncos unleashed a 38-0 beatdown on the Sea Eagles in Magic Round last year with Selwyn Cobbo bagging a memorable hat-trick.
The Broncos may look a little short as $1.30 favourites but their level of consistency and quality has been considerably higher than the Sea Eagles’, who have really only produced one decent performance in the past five weeks.
Jake Trbojevic is Manly’s glue and will be sorely missed up against a Haas- and Carrigan-led pack.
Tip: Back Broncos / Under 45.5 in the Winner / Total Points Double @ $2.40
SGM: BRONCOS BY 11-20 / BRONCOS OVER 27.5 POINTS / PAYNE HAAS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / REECE WALSH ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $75.74
The resurgent Warriors and stuttering champ Penrith are looking to avoid a third straight loss as they line up in Saturday’s opening Magic Round showdown.
Forced into a slew of changes after their gallant 30-22 Anzac Day loss to Melbourne, the Warriors had enough opportunities to beat the Roosters at home last Sunday but struggled for yardage and attacking options in the Auckland wet as they went down 14-0, dropping them to 5-4 and eighth place.
The injury-stricken Warriors have been boosted by the return of fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Tohu Harris.
The Panthers were expected to retaliate from being run down by Souths in Round 8 with an authoritative win over cellar-dwelling Wests Tigers, but instead sunk to a 12-8 defeat in a Bathurst deluge.
Errors, a dearth of possession and a couple of butchered tries sealed a very un-Penrith-like loss.
Marquee Panthers prop James Fisher-Harris returns in time to replace the injured Matt Eisenhuth.
The Warriors are on a six-match losing streak against the Panthers, crashing to heavy defeats at Redcliffe (40-6) and Penrith (46-12) last year with Brian To’o notching doubles in both.
The Warriors have shortened to $3.50 after opening as the biggest underdogs of Round 10. They are 7-2 against the line in 2023 and have shown genuine ticker in every game so far.
The Panthers will view this as must-win, but with a 3-5 cover record its hard to get excited about the out-of-sorts premiers with a 10.5-point start.
Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (+10.5) @ $1.90
SGM: EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 6.5 POINTS / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAROME LUAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $60.38
The 5-3 Cronulla Sharks have looked every bit the premiership contender since coming off their harrowing collapse against the Warriors and the Round 6 bye. After a gritty defeat of the Roosters, the second-placed Sharks turned on the flash against the Bulldogs (33-20) and Cowboys (44-6).
Nicho Hynes is in mesmerising touch and the Cronulla backline is humming as a result, while their collective attention to detail across 80 minutes has returned to its 2022 levels.
Braden Hamlin-Uele’s injury coincides with Dale Finucane’s return from suspension this week.
The main focus for the ninth-placed Dolphins will be starting well.
They produced a premiership-record-equalling comeback to pip the Titans from 26-0 down, before clawing back an 18-point deficit in an unlucky golden point loss to the Raiders last weekend.
Though their attack has exceeded expectations, the Dolphins need to tighten up defensively to maintain their billing as a genuine finals contender – a only the Titans and Bulldogs (and by the barest of margins) are conceding more points per game this season.
Tesi Niu, Anthony Milford and Mason Teague are the new faces this week, with Ray Stone and Robert Jennings out. Valynce Te Whare could debut at centre with Brenko Lee in doubt.
The Dolphins are 2-2 at Suncorp, pushing the Broncos all the way and leading the Rabbitohs at halftime in their two losses at the ground.
But in this sort of form the Sharks are going to be very tough to bottle up – they should win and cover.
The best bet, though, shapes as the over, with the Dolphins’ last five games (and three of the Sharks’ last four) producing 50-plus points.
Tip: Back Over 45.5 Points @ $1.90
SGM: SHARKS WIN / SHARKS OVER 26.5 TOTAL POINTS / SIOSIFA TALAKAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAMAYNE ISAAKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $2.60
Melbourne Storm put their season back on the rails in Round 5 with a trademark-tough 18-10 over fellow heavyweights Souths at Accor Stadium.
Both clubs have made significant progress since ahead of this third-versus-fourth rematch.
The Storm have now won four of their last five, received a well-time bye after last Tuesday’s epic 30-22 defeat of the plucky Warriors.
Down 18-6 early, Melbourne rallied with Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and returning wrecking machine Nelson Asofa-Solomona dominant.
Tom Eisenhuth returns on the bench for Tyran Wishart in the Storm’s only change from Anzac Day, while Eliesa Katoa (concussion) is being monitored.
The Rabbitohs have won all four games since losing to the Storm – three by more than 20 points – and have made big statements on the past two Fridays with a fast-finishing eclipse of Penrith and a 32-6 thrashing of front-running Brisbane.
Surprise NRL tryscoring leader Campbell Graham’s stellar campaign peaked with a hat-trick and a try-assist against the Broncos, while Latrell Mitchell is playing consistently top-level footy and Cody Walker has settled into a nice groove.
Liam Knight is set to make his first NRL appearance of 2023, replacing Davvy Moale on the Rabbitohs’ bench.
The Storm’s upset in Sydney five weeks ago was their eighth win from their previous nine games against the Rabbitohs and extended their all-time dominance of the rivalry to a 32-6 record.
Mitchell, in particular, has a point to prove after Melbourne kept him quiet in Round 5.
This has match of the round written all over it and two of the competition’s elite defensive units should ensure it goes down to the wire.
Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 6.5 Points @ $2.60
SGM: RABBITOHS BY 1-12 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HARRY GRANT ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $60.36
Plenty riding on the battle of the joint ventures as Wests Tigers aim to parlay last week’s stunning boilover into back-to-back wins and St George Illawarra Dragons desperate to avoid a fifth straight loss.
Remarkably, the 1-7 Tigers will likely climb off bottom spot on the ladder with a win here and draw level with the Dragons.
They shocked Penrith 12-8 last Saturday, with maligned half Luke Brooks and rookie fullback Jahream Bula the unlikely heroes in a win underpinned by valiant defence.
The 2-6 Saints’ four-match slide has come by a combined margin of just 11 points.
That’s not to say they haven’t grossly underachieved, backing up a highly encouraging one-point defeat to the Roosters on Anzac Day with a bumbling 20-18 defeat to the depleted Bulldogs in Round 9.
Tommy Talau comes into the Tigers’ starting team for suspended centre Brent Naden, while Asu Kepaoa returns on the bench.
Anthony Griffin has swung the axe, with Zac Lomax and Jacob Liddle dumped. Max Feagai moves to centre with Mikaele Ravalawa returning on the wing.
Jaydn Su’a is back from injury in the second-row and Jayden Sullivan joins the bench, it could be one of the last line-ups he selects in the NRL.
After four straight losses to the Tigers, the Dragons won both encounters last season – 12-6 in Wollongong and 24-22 at CommBank Stadium, seven of the teams’ past nine encounters were decided by 1-10 margins.
The Tigers’ head-to-head price has been slashed to $2.02 after last week’s heroics. They have covered in their last three, while the Dragons have covered in just two of their last seven.
Ben Hunt could just about get this done for the Saints on his own, but Griffin’s kneejerk selections are a high chance of having an adverse effect and the Tigers are a huge chance if Brooks can build on what he did in Bathurst.
Meanwhile, both teams’ recent matches have trended towards the under.
Tip: Back Under 42.5 Total Points @ $1.90
SGM: TIGERS WIN / MIKAELE RAVALAWA ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ISAIAH PAPALI’I ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAHREAM BULA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $19.70
After grafting out back-to-back wins, Sydney Roosters will be looking to build some momentum heading into the middle part of the season when they take on battling, second-last North Queensland.
Fortunate to escape with a 27-26 win over the Dragons on Anzac Day, the Roosters navigated a short turnaround, the loss of Daniel Tupou and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, and a trip across the Tasman to shut the Warriors out 14-0 in their own backyard and improve to 5-3.
Brandon Smith (neck) is in doubt but has been named. Paul Momirvoski is out, with Drew Hutchison the new centre and Jake Turpin joining the bench, Waerea-Hargreaves returns from a rest, bumping Fletcher Baker out of the 17.
The 3-6 Cowboys hit a harrowing season low at Cronulla last Thursday, trounced 44-6 by the Sharks as the team looked unrecognisable compared to its 2022 top-four incarnation.
Injuries are playing a part but they look a team devoid of confidence and are scoring the second-least points in the NRL.
Heilum Luki’s return from injury is timely with Jeremiah Nanai suspended for four games. Chad Townsend (calf) is racing the clock, with Ben Hampton a possible replacement at halfback.
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki comes onto the bench for Tom Chester (ACL).
The Roosters have won their last five against the Cowboys by 14+, including a pair of comfortable 2022 wins – 28-4 in Townsville and 32-18 at the SCG – despite finishing lower on the ladder.
A similar result looms on Sunday unless Todd Payten can work a coaching miracle with the biggest outsiders of Magic Round ($4.10).
Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-13.5) @ $1.90
SGM: JAXSON PAULO TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JOSEPH MANU ANYTIME TRYSCORER / COWBOYS UNDER 13.5 POINTS @ $24.71
Both impressive Round 9 winners, Gold Coast and Parramatta close out the festivities in Brisbane with a crucial encounter.
The 4-4 Titans are part of the five-team logjam tied for seventh, while the 4-5 Eels are 12th.
The Gold Coast pulled off a significant upset last Saturday, downing Manly 26-10 on the road with David Fifita rocketing back into form.
It was the third straight week the Titans had scored 26 points but more important was the defensive commitment after leaking 71 points in the previous fortnight.
Meanwhile, it was a potentially season-saving bounce-back from blowing a 26-point lead in a historic loss to the Dolphins in Round 8.
AJ Brimson has been ruled out, but Jayden Campbell was one of the best on ground against Manly from the bench and will revel in the chance to start at fullback. Kruise Leeming fills the interchange spot.
The Eels have meandered through the 2023 premiership so far, only occasionally looking like the grand finalists they were last season.
One of those occasions was last Friday, thrashing the Knights 43-12 with Clint Gutherson and Mitch Moses wreaking havoc.
Midyear recruit Andrew Davey comes straight into the Eels’ back-row, while Ryan Matterson and Bailey Simonsson are also back.
After the Titans won 11 of the teams’ first 16 encounters, the Eels have crafted a seven-match winning streak in the rivalry since 2017.
Last season’s clashes were tight, however, the blue-and-golds prevailing 32-28 at home and 26-20 on the Gold Coast.
This one could follow the same trend: the Eels have the edge in key-position personnel, but the Titans are capable of piling on quick points and boast plenty of quality in the engine-room – a key factor with the Eels missing Reagan Campbell-Gillard for an extended period.
Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.90
SGM: TITANS OVER 18.5 TOTAL POINTS / EITHER TEAM BY LESS THAN 10.5 POINTS / PHILLIP SAMI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DYLAN BROWN ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DAVID FIFITA @ $49.28