2023 Super Rugby Round 12 Preview

Just four weeks remain in the 2023 Super Rugby Pacific Regular season and there’s still plenty to play for across the table.

Only one side in Super Rugby history has gone unbeaten throughout an entire season and the Chiefs are looking to better the 2002 Crusaders mark of 13-0.

It will be a bit tougher for them with the expanded schedule forcing them to win 14 regular season games plus three finals but they are chasing history here.

Their opponents this week, the Queensland Reds have struggled for consistency all season and find themselves mired in the battle for sixth, seventh and eighth, knowing another defeat could put them on the outside looking in.

That’s just one of the six Super Rugby games on the cards this weekend so read on and find our best bets plus match previews below.

For this Trans-Tasman clash, the Chiefs are taking their roadshow to the west coast of New Zealand’s North Island and playing this game in New Plymouth.

Considering the disparity in records between both of these sides it is no surprise to see the Chiefs as $1.06 favourites to win this one and the only question punters should be asking is, “Chiefs by how much?”

There were some major concerns to be had with the Reds performance in Townsville last weekend, with some fundamental mistakes creeping into their eight point loss to the Waratahs.

Even in defeat they had their moments but a slow start to the second half where they fell behind by 12 points before the game reached the hour mark reminds you just where the Reds are falling short in 2023.

This will be their first test in New Zealand this season, however history is not on their side with Brad Thorn’s men losing all six of their away games against Kiwi opponents in 2021 and 2022 with four of those defeats coming by 20 or more points.

Chiefs to Cover -18.5 @ $1.83

No two sides in Super Rugby have a greater disparity in results playing at home or away than the Force and the Drua.

If they were to meet at a neutral site, you’d give the Drua a real chance however the fact this game is being played out west swings the tip towards the home side.

So far this season, the Force have won all three of their home games in Perth, defeating the Rebels, Moana Pasifika and most recently the Highlanders at HBF Park.

Their lone meeting in 2022 went down to the wire and this one should be no different, take the Force outright.

Force to Win @ $1.80

Last weekend saw the Hurricanes become the latest team to fall victim to the Drua and their raucous home fans, enduring a frustrating 24-27 defeat that saw them drop to fifth.

However they have the perfect chance to atone for that defeat with a clash against the winless Moana Pasifika side.

It feels odd to say there has been some improvement in the last few weeks from Moana Pasifika but they have seen their margins shrink in each of the last four games going down by 17, 12, 10 and most recently just the one point against the Blues.

However that improvement is not something I’m overly keen to bank on.

The last two times these sides have met have seen the Hurricanes win by a combined score of 112-12 and they have the attacking firepower on hand to make sure that they do not give their rivals a sniff.

Hurricanes to Cover -21.5 @ $1.83

Perhaps the Blues had their eye on this game last week when they only just scraped by Moana Pasifika and they were well within their rights to considering the magnitude of this one.

Heading into Round 12, the Blues are a point ahead of the Crusaders on the Super Rugby ladder in third place and assuming the Hurricanes take care of business, the loser of this game will drop out of the top four.

Not to mention the importance of keeping pace with the Brumbies to potentially host a Semi Final, or at least avoid the Chiefs in the penultimate weekend of the season.

For the Blues, playing on the road is not necessarily the worst case scenario for them with the away team winning four of the last five games between the two, including a 27-23 win in the equivalent fixture last season.

There is not as much between these teams as the market would suggest and the Blues have won 13 of their last 14 away games.

This is an upset I’m happy to back in considering how even the teams have looked this season.

Blues to Win @ $2.60

After knocking off the Reds in Townsville last weekend the Tahs have an opportunity to give themselves some breathing room in the race for the finals.

Already six points clear of the ninth placed Rebels and with the other teams below them all facing very tough tasks in Round 12, they could all but secure a postseason berth with a win here.

Having won three of their last four, they are starting to show some signs of life whereas the Rebels have been off the pace since the start of April, winning one of five and that was against Moana Pasifika.

Even though the Rebels picked up the win when they faced off in Melbourne back in March, this Waratahs team has greatly improved since then.

They deserve their favouritism and should be able to pick up a comfortable win once they get on a roll.

Waratahs to Cover -8.5 @ $1.83

It’s the same approach as we’ve had for the last few weeks but it will continue to be worth sticking with, stop treating the Brumbies like just a good Australian team and start treating them like a good team full stop.

You can never count them out with their attack kicking into overdrive under the coaching of Stephen Larkham with the side averaging over 35 points per game.

Defensively they are a bit suspect giving up just under 28 points per game but the Highlanders are struggling at 3-7.

That means you can also stop treating them like a struggling New Zealand side and approach them like they are just your average Super Rugby team at best.

When a good team takes on a struggling team, it’s a pretty straightforward selection.

Brumbies to Cover -8.5 @ $1.83