Round 21 of the 2023 AFL season is done and dusted.
Brownlow betting suddenly got interesting, the state of the eight got interesting, in fact this whole season has become very interesting.
What did we learn?
Let’s have a five-leg multi of hindsight and put it all together in another edition of AFL 5 Lessons Learned.
(1) Who backed the Bont?
No one likes seeing champion players get injured, but anyone who hasn’t backed Nick Daicos for the Brownlow could really be in with a shot after the Magpie superstar was ruled out for up to six weeks with a knee injury, or as Collingwood put it “hairline fracture in the lateral tibial plateau of the right knee joint”.
Nick Daicos’s injury has shaken up the Brownlow betting. At the start of the weekend, Daicos was $1.80 and has now drifted out to $6, with Marcus Bontempelli now the $2.10 favourite along with Demon Christian Petracca who managed to help the Dees get back into gear after a scare from North on Sunday who is now at $2.75
Anyone who backed Bont at $10 only a couple of weeks ago would be licking their lips.
(2) It’s bloody close.
Season 2023 is turning out to be the closest race for the eight in recent memory, and some people want a wildcard round?!?
Apart from Melbourne and Carlton, no other teams currently in the top eight have a two-game winning streak.
Don’t waste your time doing the ladder predictor on the AFL website, the only ladder predictor we trust is the one according to our futures market.
All going well, the final eight should look like this by the end of Round 24
- Collingwood
- Melbourne
- Brisbane
- Port Adelaide
- Carlton ($1.17)
- Western Bulldogs ($1.28)
- Geelong ($1.68)
- GWS Giants ($1.90)
- Sydney ($2.15)
- Adelaide ($2.50)
- St Kilda ($3)
- Essendon ($7)
- Richmond ($13)
- Gold Coast ($51)
- Fremantle
- Hawthorn
- North Melbourne
- West Coast
(3) Happy Team at Hawthorn
Many had them penciled in for the wooden spoon, some were bemused by their off season list cull and one pundit suspected them of tanking, but, perhaps there was method in Sam Mitchell’s madness after all?
Wearing their late 90s pre-season/away jumper, the Hawks stunned the flag favourites with a convincing 32-point win in one of the upsets of the season.
After the Hawks kicked the first five goals of the game, Sam Mitchell’s men made sure no epic Collingwood comeback, which we’ve become so used to of recent was to occur.
Unlike most rebuilds, Hawthorn’s seems to be fast-tracked and there’s a real vibe of loving their club and playing to win, whilist riding the bumps with a grin.
A special shout out to the Ladbrokes Punter who placed a lazy $32K on Hawthorn in the live market at $2.55 during the first quarter of Saturday’s game – it was never in doubt.
(4) The following seasons are over…
Put the calculators, spread sheets and ladder predictor away if you support the following teams:
- Essendon
- Richmond
- Gold Coast
It’s time for the boys to start planning mad Monday and finalising their end of season footy trips, and you should too.
For Essendon, it was a season of “The Bombers are back” followed by “Yeah, nah”
The Gold Coast Suns are chips-in on a future with Damien Hardwick.
As for Richmond, Tiger fans might want to enjoy the last few weeks with the likes of club legends Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin playing in the yellow and black before they retire as club immortals.
Round 23 at the MCG against North Melbourne is looking to be quite the celebration.
(5) Blues v Dees set to be a beauty
If your Saturday night plan isn’t watching the Carlton v Melbourne game, then cancel them.
Right now, one could argue that the Blues and Dees are the in-form teams of the AFL, with Carlton winning seven straight (the first time since 2000) and Melbourne five on the trot.
Melbourne has all eyes on a top two spot and if the Blues win this one, Carlton fans who are already deleting old social media posts and regretting calling into SEN/3AW talkback a few weeks ago calling for heads to roll can start to dream about premierships.
The market for this match on a Monday morning has the Blues $2.35 underdogs with Melbourne $1.60 and the line giving the Dees a -8.5 head start.
I’d get on Carlton at $2.30 right now.