Tips & Predictions NRL Finals Week 1
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5 Lessons Learned – AFL Finals Week 1

5 Lessons Learned – AFL Finals Week 1

An epic first weekend of the AFL Finals is done and dusted.

The Pies and Lions can enjoy a week off.

Melbourne and Port get a second chance against Carlton and GWS respectively with the Swans and Saints gearing up for Mad Monday.

But what did the Ladbrokes Punters learn from the weekend just past?


We’ve put together a five-leg multi of hindsight in a little package we like to call 5 Lessons Learned.

(1) Brisbane can win the Grand Final

One only needs to watch the third quarter of the Brisbane v Port Adelaide clash when the Lions piled on eight goals which paved the way for an emphatic 48-point win and a home preliminary final at the Gabba in a fortnight’s time.

Joe Daniher booted five and Charlie Cameron put on a karaoke night with two goals in a minute at the Gabba, but Saturday night’s result made it clear that the Brisbane Lions mean business this finals series.

All the stars shone for Brisbane.

Cam Rayner kicked three, Hugh McCluggage blitzed it with 26 disposals, nine clearances, four scoring assists and one goal and despite a quiet first quarter Lachie Neale got 19 disposals.

It was as though the Lions found that extra gear, perfectly timed for September football and while you don’t get percentage in finals Brisbane didn’t park the bus when it was obvious they had secured a home preliminary final either.

As a home prelim at the Gabba beckons, there’s every chance they will be playing on the MCG in the last Saturday in September.

Brisbane is $3 to win the flag at the time of publishing.

(2) Giants can go all the way

It was a clinical performance from the Orange team at the MCG against the Saints on Saturday afternoon.

The Giants went into the game as clear $1.60 favourites and played like it all day against the Saints securing a solid 24-point win.

No one expected anything from GWS this season, but they have become a regular fixture in September, having won at least one final in every campaign they have featured in and they could easily make an off-broadway run to an unexpected premiership.

While St Kilda managed to claw themselves back into the game at stages, the cool, calm and collected Giants just managed to stay composed as the famous orange tsunami did their thing.

There is no shortage of talent in the Giants squad, but even the quiet achievers for an off-Broadway team (Conor Idun in the backline for instance, or just a lazy 36 disposals from Tom Green) this is the squad that can cause more shocks this September.

The Giants will face Port Adelaide on the rebound in a semi-final at Adelaide Oval, heading into the game as $2.35 underdogs at the time of publish.

Adelaide Oval will be 49,000 Power fans and just under 1000 Giants fans, nothing the Giants haven’t put up with before, and if anything, they’ll thrive in these conditions.

The Big Big Sound could be on the way to another big big upset and are a real smoky this finals series.

Should they beat Port next week, they’d face Collingwood in a Prelim and well, I think I may have seen this movie before…

(3) Baggers can be flaggers

For eight weeks this season, Carlton fans were ready to send the players, coaches and officials to the slaughterhouse after having to endure yet another rough patch.

Then, after a trip to Camp Curnow and some skinny dipping, all is well at Princes Park.

Carlton didn’t do it easy on Friday night,  Brodie Kemp failed to rush a behind when given the opportunity and Harry McKay had two shocking misses (how about that hit the post from the goal square?!?)

However, when the ball was in Nic Newman’s hands when the final siren rang and the Blues were six points up, all the shackles, shakiness and nervousness were gone.

Carlton has won a final.

They are two wins away from what would be a more amazing Grand Final berth, potentially if the cards fall the right way against Collingwood.

The Blues won ugly, but winning a final is everything.

They’ll have to get through Melbourne on Friday night and head into the game as $2.20 underdogs, but they’ve clicked, won the close ones and perhaps, the Blues really are coming.


(4) Collingwood premiership a cakewalk

It was far from a great final and despite it being a close result, Thursday night’s clash was an ugly game of footy.


But who cares about the look of the game when there’s a spot in a Prelim to be won?

Collingwood kicked just the two behind in the fourth quarter but managed to jag a seven-point win in a game where there was a bit of playing the man and not the ball at some stages.

Perhaps it was the performance of skipper Darcy Moore with game-saving spoils and intercept marks in defence as the Dees tried to make a charge in the final quarter, or Mason Cox stepping up for another classic September performance completely dominating Max Gawn in the ruck contests.

The Pies who are $2.60 favourites to win the flag, can enjoy the week off before facing Port or the Giants in a Preliminary Final.

(5) There’s always next week   

Melbourne will rue their wastefulness, with 69 to 37 inside 50s against Collingwood but will take some confidence managing to claw back from 25-points down at three-quarter-time, but close enough is not good enough.

The Dees will be $1.67 favourites heading into their semi-final against the Blues ($2.20) and would want to avoid two consecutive seasons of straight-set exits from finals football.

If Port don’t beat the Giants on Saturday night at Adelaide Oval, I wouldn’t mind listening to the talkback on FiveAA post-game.

The Power out in straight sets could be as bad as not making the finals, and despite signing Ken Hinkley up for another two seasons, Warren Tredrea may have been on to something before they won 13 straight.

But that’s a doomsday situation, the Power are $1.58 favourites heading into the game and the Portress is where they can do some serious damage. It’s not like GWS are known for being party poopers in finals…

Meanwhile, most Saints fans should be proud of the season they had making the finals after constantly being written off whereas, had it not been for a North Melbourne interchange error and a goal umpiring decision gone wrong in Adelaide, Sydney shouldn’t have been in the finals in the first place.