5 Lessons Learned – NFL Week 18

5 Lessons Learned – NFL Week 18

32 has become 14, the NFL regular season wrapped up in typically dramatic fashion with 18 teams beginning their offseason.

Of the 16 games, half were decided by one score and the playoff field was set, but not without its share of drama.

Let’s get right into the review of not just the final week of the regular season, but some of the big talking points of the last four and a bit months with our five big takeaways.

1 – Atlanta has a reason to feel aggrieved

The most interesting thing to happen in the Saints-Falcons game came after the final whistle as Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen came together for their handshake.

https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1744103230500422103

Normally when a coach is throwing a tantrum postgame they are being overly sensitive over something petty, or are trying to cover from the fact their defence couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag, let alone make a tackle.

But in this rare instance, Smith kind of has a point after the Saints players went rogue on Allen’s play call.

It’s not so much running the ball to get Jamaal Williams his first touchdown of the season that should irk the opposition, it’s running the play out of victory formation.

When an offence lines up like that, it’s understood that the QB is going to kneel down, the clock winds down and everyone gets out of there in one piece.

Line up with Williams behind a blocker and make it clear you’re going to run, that’s all good, especially with the Falcons still having all three timeouts.

But it set up a bizarre Dennis Allen press conference after the game.

2 – It’s anyone’s guess

Is there any team that you feel that great about heading into the playoffs?

San Francisco and Baltimore are the popular picks in each conference but you have to wonder how those two teams are going to respond after wrapping up the top seeds in Week 17.

Baltimore gave some of their stars the night off when they hosted Pittsburgh with arguably the most star studded inactive list of the season.

It was the same approach as they used in 2019 when they ran over all comers in the AFC and took the final game off… and we all remember what happened when the Titans came to town.

San Francisco gave a banged up Christian McCaffrey the week off while Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Dre Greenlaw all sat.

Their backups took their chance to play and picked up a win over the Rams to close out their regular season.

But for both of these teams, when they take to the field in the Divisional Playoffs it will have been three weeks between meaningful games for them and you have to be worried about losing that edge.

Perhaps the strongest case you can make for the top seeds to advance to the Super Bowl is that there is no clear and obvious challenger who could knock them off.

Maybe you could see Dallas catching fire in the NFC or Miami’s offence getting healthy enough to go score for score with Baltimore, but that requires a whole lot of projection either way.

3 – The injury trend continued

It is only fitting that in a season headlined by injuries, that trend continued right through Week 18 with some key players going down ahead of the playoffs.

Pittsburgh’s win in Baltimore was soured somewhat by the potential defensive player of the year TJ Watt suffering an ugly looking knee injury in the third quarter.

That came after Watt did enough to wrap up the NFL’s sack title for the third time in his career, but if he cannot go next week, that’s a big blow for the Steelers’ hopes of an upset.

Detroit’s stud tight end Sam LaPorta went down with a knee injury in the early window and by the sounds of it, there will be a close eye on his status for next week as well.

But no team’s training staff will be busier than the Philadelphia Eagles, whose wretched late season run was capped not only with an embarrassing loss against the Giants, but with a pair of star players getting hurt.

AJ Brown went down in the first quarter after a knee on knee collision following a catch which made him fumble.

Unsurprisingly, he went straight to the tent and the Eagles decided to play it safe and keep him in bubble wrap for the rest of the game.

Jalen Hurts also busted the finger on his throwing hand before being replaced by Marcus Mariota once they realised Dallas was going to win their game.

And just when the Eagles thought their luck could not get any worse, their defence took a hit as well.

4 – Chicago could set themselves up for long term success

It was not a happy ending to the season for the Chicago Bears, but they have plenty of reason to be optimistic about their long term future, if they make some smart decisions over the coming months.

After losing to the Packers, their record dropped to 7-10 and which was “good” enough for the ninth overall pick in the draft.

But what they do with that pick is going to be tertiary to their other first round pick, acquired from the Panthers last year, the same Panthers that went 2-15 and “earned” the top pick in April.

Caleb Williams is the presumptive top pick and the Bears will have to decide if they want to turn their franchise over to the USC man or stick with Justin Fields.

Fields did not have a great game in Green Bay, under pressure all afternoon and he took some bad sacks on third down to kill off Bears drives.

But he has not been the main cause of the Bears problems all season and he has shown just enough to make you wonder if there is something there to build on with a bit more help.

If there isn’t, you can trade Fields and get a second or third round pick back, but if there is, the Bears could spark a bidding war to really inject some talent into their roster from the teams behind them.

Washington, New England, the Giants and Atlanta could all use a quarterback like Williams and the starting price is probably the equivalent of the package Carolina sent them to take Bryce Young.

If they take a deal from Washington or New England they could easily add Marvin Harrison Jr to give Fields another target to work with or take an offensive lineman to keep the quarterback upright at one of the lower picks.

Plus, if they pick the right team, any future first rounders are probably going to be in the top ten in 2025 as well.

There are a lot of decisions to be made in Chicago, but the potential is there if they get it right.

5 – The coaching carousel has started

Another decision to be made in Chicago is if they want to keep Matt Eberflus as the head coach, because if they don’t they might become the most attractive landing spot on the coaching carousel.

At the time of publish, three teams have confirmed coaching vacancies in Carolina, the LA Chargers and Las Vegas but a few more will almost certainly open up in the coming days.

On top of Chicago, Washington, New England, Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans and the Jets will all be evaluating their coaching positions after missing the playoffs and can you rule out Jerry Jones doing something drastic if Dallas gets bounced by Green Bay?

Of the confirmed openings, there is no doubt that the Chargers are the closest to competing for a championship with Justin Herbert, but they have some cap issues and aging talent to sort out.

Las Vegas will have plenty of cap space and room to improve after a dysfunstional season, but the Raiders could be nervous about moving on from a clearly popular Antonio Pierce.

Whoever gets hired in Carolina won’t have a first round pick and will have to work for this guy.

As for the other spots, there’s a reason why all of those jobs are open with major talent deficiencies that will need to be addressed.

Although no situation will be more fascinating to follow than New England, who will be hiring a coach for the first time since January 2000 and the building needing a major overhaul after the highly successful Belichick era likely ended with a thud.

(UPDATE: Within half an hour of this getting published, the Falcons fired Arthur Smith).