Break out the sunscreen, the fancy sunglasses and the half buttoned shirt, we are off to Miami for the sixth race in the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship.
This will be the third staging of the Miami Grand Prix and it, like most races over the last two years has been the domain of the Dutch maestro Max Verstappen as he is chasing his fifth win of the season.
Given his success in the Florida sun over the last two years and Red Bull’s overall dominance in 2024, it is no surprise then to see Verstappen as the incredibly short priced favourite in the market and his teammate Sergio Perez as the only other driver in single digit odds to win the race.
However after his best showing of the season in the McLaren, perhaps Lando Norris or one of the Ferrari cars will be able to offer some competition this weekend.
Admittedly with all of the off-track rumours going around there may be more fireworks in the private meeting rooms at the track rather than during the race but either way it is shaping up to be an interesting few days.
We’ve done the digging and found our best bets for the race in the early hours of Monday morning so read on and see where the value lies.
Track Stats
- Direction: Anti-Clockwise
- Lap Distance: 5.412km
- Total Laps: 57
- Race Distance: 308.326km
- Lap Record: 1:29.708 (Max Verstappen, 2023)
- 2023 Podium: Max Verstappen (RBR), Sergio Perez (RBR),
- Most Event Wins: Max Verstappen (2022, 2023)
Podium Finish
Outside of the two Red Bulls, it actually shapes as a wide open battle for the podium with just the one spot potentially available.
Lewis Hamilton is yet to really show any real signs of encouragement and he has not had a good time in both Miami races, finishing in sixth and almost a minute adrift of Verstappen which explains why he is such a long way down the market.
This looks like it might have the makings of a battle between the Ferraris and McLarens for that last podium spot.
I’m finding myself drawn to Carlos Sainz who had a disappointing outing in China but looks primed for a bounce back as he chases his fourth podium of the season.
Carlos Sainz Podium Finish @ $2.60
Top 6 Finish
Barring any real catastrophe on the track, the top five in the top six finish market (all of whom are $1.17 or shorter) are probably going to be filling out those places, but it really is anyone’s guess as to that final spot.
Fernando Alonso remains a popular choice just because he is insanely consistent and will be in the mix once again just through his wealth of experience.
However George Russell cannot be counted out either and he could provide the proverbial cat amongst the pigeons.
He has managed a top six classification in three of the five races so far and appears to be responding to the 2024 Mercedes car better than his Ferrari bound compatriot.
Not to mention he could have easily landed in the top six in Australia were it not for that last lap crash that sent him down to 17th.
Fernando Alonso Top 6 @ $1.91
George Russell Top 6 @ $2.00
Points Finish
Seven of the 20 drivers on the grid in Miami will be starting the race hoping to earn their first point of the season and surely this is the weekend someone manages to break through.
Granted they might not catch Oliver Bearman who only featured in Jeddah and is currently 12th of 21 in the Drivers’ Championship standings.
If you want to back one driver to get their first points finish of the season, Alex Albon looks like remarkable value at $4.50 at publish.
He has been there or thereabouts this season, finishing in 11th twice and 12th in China, not to mention he managed a ninth-place finish in the inaugural Miami race.
Niko Hulkenberg is also worth a play at his current price having earned points in three of his last four races with an 11th place in Japan breaking up that streak.
I’ll be having something on both of them to battle their way into the top half of the field.
Yuki Tsunoda Points Finish @ $3.00
Alex Albon Points Finish @ $4.50
Fastest Lap
Right, let’s run this one back even after Alonso spoiled this bet in China.
Verstappen has taken the maximum possible 52 points in South Florida with a pair of race wins and fastest laps in that time and he should be able to do this once again.
Max Verstappen Fastest Lap and Win the Race @ $1.73
Driver Match Bets
Let’s round this one out with a couple of team head to head bets.
Lewis Hamilton has had a busy week driving his car up and down the streets in Manhattan as Mercedes makes the most of having him on their books, but he has been out performed by George Russell in every race this season.
He is finishing on average between two and three spots ahead of Hamilton and it is a genuine surprise to see the prices this close in the market.
It’s a similar story with the Ferraris with Sainz holding a 3-1 advantage on Leclerc in 2024 with the drivers splitting the head to head battle in Miami, I’ll happily back the Spaniard here.
George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton @ $1.73
Carlos Sainz to beat Charles Leclerc @ $2.00