It took six Grands Prix but finally Max Verstappen got beaten by a rival in a race that he finished!
Which is probably not good news for the field at this weekend’s Emilia Romagna F1 Grand Prix as the Dutchman will be out to atone for his rare second place.
Verstappen is a near-unbackable $1.29 favourite at publish and that price will likely shorten if, as expected, he cruises onto pole position during qualifying.
Regardless of how the race plays out though, it is a welcome return to Imola for the fourth running of this event after last year was rained out and cancelled due to flooding in the area.
The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix was created as a result of the Covid pandemic in 2020 to help fill out the season with travel options severely limited and it proved to be so popular, it stuck.
Imola has been a regular feature on the Formula 1 calendar in the past however, with the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari (just in case it wasn’t already clear this was taking place in Italy) hosting the Italian Grand Prix or San Marino Grand Prix from 1980-2006.
Given the proximity to the Ferrari factory, on top of the name of the track, it is no surprise then that the Ferrari team will be eager to put in a strong showing for the parochial crowd.
However McLaren will be set to put up a strong fight in this race too with Lando Norris picking up his first career win in Miami a fortnight ago.
It’s shaping up to be a fascinating race for many reasons and we are looking forward to it, so read on for our race preview and best bets.
Track Stats
- Direction: Anti-Clockwise
- Lap Distance: 4.909km
- Total Laps: 63
- Race Distance: 309.049km
- Lap Record: 1:15.484 (Lewis Hamilton, MER, 2020)
- 2022 Podium: Max Verstappen (RBR), Sergio Perez (RBR), Lando Norris (MCL)
- Most Event Wins: Max Verstappen (2021, 2022)
Podium Finish
Perhaps the best part of reaching this part of the season is that teams are starting to address the initial areas where their cars are falling short.
It also means that we have a proper battle for the podium now with five drivers very much in the mix and there is definitely some value in this market.
Let’s start with the “other” Red Bull Driver Sergio Perez who has four podiums to his name this season and has performed very well since being told he is driving for his seat in 2025.
He has a decent record at Imola under the new setup, finishing sixth for Racing Point in 2020 and was runner up to Verstappen in 2022.
You can even double down on Perez having a strong performance by taking both Red Bulls to finish on the podium at even money.
Carlos Sainz has been a bit uneven in the last two weeks, having to settle for fifth place in both China and Miami, but should be primed for a rebound here.
There is a chance of rain in the forecast and if it turns into a wet race, Sainz looks well placed to take full advantage of the adverse conditions.
Sergio Perez Podium Finish @ $2.00
Carlos Sainz Podium Finish @ $2.80
Red Bull Double Podium Finish @ $2.00
Top 6 Finish
The only other driver to win at Imola since its reinstatement onto the Formula 1 calendar, Lewis Hamilton is coming off his best finish of the season in Miami.
In the Florida sunshine, the Ferrari bound Brit finished in sixth place and with Mercedes set to unveil the second half of their early season upgrade package in Italy, Hamilton could be in position to compete for a podium finish.
He is one of the few drivers at over even money I feel alright backing with it really being nine drivers fighting for the top six.
Only Yuki Tsunoda and Oli Bearman have managed to finish as high as seventh this season but breaking into that elite group is proving to be tough for the rest of the field.
Lewis Hamilton Top 6 Finish @ $2.25
Points Finish
For a brief period in Miami, it looked like Daniel Ricciardo might be back on top of his game after his fourth place in the sprint race.
However a few hours later he came crashing back to earth during qualifying and the race itself, finishing in 15th place.
His teammate Yuki Tsunoda though is looking really good in the last few races, picking up points in three of his last four starts.
Last time out on this track, he pulled off an impressive drive to finish in seventh spot and his style should suit this track perfectly.
Yuki Tsunoda Top 10 Finish @ $2.00
Driver Match Bets
There are plenty of one-sided markets in the driver head to head options, but there are a couple of potential upsets that do stand out.
Most notably Lewis Hamilton over George Russell, with the Miami race the first time Hamilton had finished ahead of his teammate.
Combine that with his affinity for this track and I’ll take him to beat his teammate as well as finish in the top six.
Lewis Hamilton to beat George Russell @ $2.00