After the rollercoaster of the penultimate round, the final weekend of the 2024 NRL regular season was relatively routine – aside from unexpectedly heavy defeats for two highly touted dark horses.
See how the contenders are shaping up ahead of the NRL finals…and how the rest will be viewing their campaigns on Mad Monday.
Storm surge to favouritism
Whatever happens over the next month, Melbourne has reinforced its status as an NRL benchmark after winning the minor premiership by four points.
Only five teams have finished more than one win clear of the field in the past 14 seasons – and the Storm account for four of those.
But anything less than a NRL grand final victory from this point will be regarded as a gut-wrenching missed opportunity, if not a failure, for Craig Bellamy’s side, who have moved further ahead as title favourites at $2.50 ahead of three-time champs Penrith ($3.50).
The ruthlessness of the Storm’s 50-12 dead-rubber rout of the Broncos – particularly when measured against the Panthers’ clunky 18-12 defeat of the Titans – will have sent shivers down the spine of their fellow contenders.
On the back of scoring three tries and setting up three more in Brisbane, Jahrome Hughes is almost a unanimous Dally M Medal tip, whereas the Panthers’ chances seem to hinge solely on Nathan Cleary’s shaky shoulder.
Wake-up calls ahead of elimination blockbuster
After sailing through July and the first half of August to earn premiership dark horse status, Canterbury and Manly head into Sunday’s massive elimination final scrambling to regain the magic that underpinned their respective returns to the playoffs.
More than 50,000 fans will herd to Accor Stadium to watch two teams that conceded a combined 84 points in Round 27.
The end of the Bulldogs’ eight-year finals drought has been tempered by a disappointing fortnight, with their briefly-NRL-best defensive record giving way to their two highest scores conceded in the last two rounds.
The absence of Matt Burton, Bronson Xerri and Josh Addo-Carr couldn’t explain away a meek showing in a 44-6 loss to the Cowboys, who destroyed the Bulldogs through the middle.
Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles bookended their outstanding 34-22 win over the Bulldogs in Round 26 with jarring losses to wooden spooners Wests Tigers (34-26) and Cronulla (40-20).
With a home final there for the taking at home against the Sharks, Manly sunk to their biggest loss and highest score conceded in 2024 – and are relying on an underdone Tom Trbojevic to return and prove the difference this weekend.
The Bulldogs are narrow $1.80 favourites for what is the most feverishly anticipated clash of week one, despite the combatants’ recent stumbles. The Sea Eagles ($17), though, have inched ahead of the Bulldogs ($23) in the title market.
Under-the-radar sides set sights on grand final run
In contrast to 2023, when top-two finishers Penrith and Brisbane seemed light years ahead of the field and proved to be as both won their two finals matches by 26-plus points to reach the grand final, this year’s playoffs appear much more open.
The Storm’s and Panthers’ credentials are difficult to deny but they are far from infallible.
That puts Cronulla and North Queensland – such dominant final-round winners against the Sea Eagles and Bulldogs – firmly in the frame for a deep run. The Cowboys have won six of their last seven, the Sharks five of their last six.
Flying in the face of perceived ‘flat-track bully’ qualities, the Cowboys (seven from 10) and Sharks (six from nine) boast the two best win percentages against fellow Top 8 teams.
There’s a high chance the pair will face each other in week two with the Sharks $3.25 outsiders to roll the Storm in Melbourne and the Cowboys $1.45 favourites to advance at the expense of the Knights, but either team should provide stiffer prelim opposition than the Panthers have encountered recently.
The Sharks are on the fourth line of title betting at $10 with the Cowboys fifth at $17.
Knights time their run
Newcastle has somehow qualified for its fourth finals series in five seasons under Adam O’Brien, squeaking in as one of the more uninspiring eighth-placed teams in recent memory.
But there has been enough in the Knights’ late-season rally – winning four of their last five – to evoke memories of their remarkable 2023 charge and make any upcoming opponents wary.
Sunday’s winner-take-all showdown with the Dolphins was essentially a finals match and the Knights’ defensive resilience, combined with Kalyn Ponga’s rare game-breaking class, had September intensity written all over it in a 14-6 triumph.
The Knights kept their try-line intact for 70 minutes (a controversial, Bennett-baiting obstruction call against the visitors notwithstanding) in the face of a Dolphins barrage and conceded under 20 points for the fifth straight game.
The elephant in the room ahead of their elimination final trip to Townsville is an eye-watering 1-9 record against their fellow Top 8 teams, with only a Round 3 home upset of a severely depleted Melbourne to show.
The Knights are $2.75 to stay alive with a victory over the Cowboys, while they are on the last line for the premiership at $67.
Rating the also-rans
Nine teams will watch the playoffs from the sidelines. Here’s what went right and wrong for 2024’s sliders, battlers and what-might-have-beens.
Raiders: Widely tipped for the bottom four after Jack Wighton’s departure, the Raiders get a pass mark for becoming just the seventh team of the NRL era to miss finals on for-and-against. A handful of capitulations contributed to that vital points differential deficit, but a host of gritty displays, remarkable comebacks and spine discoveries should have the Green Machine heading into the summer with a half-full glass.
Dolphins: Agonisingly close to a sophomore season finals appearance, the Dolphins produced arguably the best win of their short history in the penultimate round against Brisbane and were brave in defeat at Newcastle. But the unavoidable reality is the Bennett era ended with 10 losses from their last 14 games as the defensive frailties of 2023 reemerged.
Dragons: A year of immense progress under Shane Flanagan, but consistency proved elusive and finishing on a season-worst three-match losing streak cost them a finals spot when their destiny was in their hands. A few roster tweaks away from becoming a genuine Top 8 team and Zac Lomax’s departure will hurt.
Broncos: Joined the ranks of teams to miss the playoffs a year after featuring in a grand final when most expected them to go one step further in 2024. Injuries and the representative drain played more of a role than most commentators are willing to concede, but the Broncos generally didn’t seem willing to put in the hard work this time around and won just three of their last 13 games and leaked 40-plus points in four of the last six rounds.
Warriors: The Broncos’ decline has deflected attention from the Auckland-based outfit, but the predicted Warriors juggernaut went off the rails early. Their best wins came when least expected, while they regularly blew big leads and crumbled against struggling teams – excruciating hallmarks of Warriors teams of yesteryear. Shaun Johnson’s injury-hampered year underlined how vital he was to the 2023 charge and the Warriors look no closer to finding a viable No.7 replacement, while Andrew Webster has a few more tough line-up calls to make next year as youngsters demand regular selection.
Titans: Always up against it after an 0-6 start, but Des Hasler had the Titans humming as a Top 8 bolter mid-season. The wheels fell off with five straight losses to close out the campaign, but the offensive talent in their ranks – and the return of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, who lasted just two games in 2024 – bodes well for a climb up the table next year.
Rabbitohs: A 1-9 start, the messy sacking of Jason Demetriou and Latrell Mitchell’s frequent, clumsily-handled controversies – it was a diabolical season at Redfern that only briefly improved with a run of six wins in seven games. The return of Wayne Bennett puts a very different lens over Souths’ future prospects, however.
Eels: Second-last just two years after a grand final appearance and the axing of an 11-season coach tells you just about all you need to know about the Eels’ season. Mitch Moses managed just eight games and Zac Lomax will be a huge addition, but rookie coach Jason Ryles has been handed a hospital pass that may make him wish he took on the St George Illawarra post.
Tigers: Leaking 60 points to collect a third straight wooden spoon was a disappointing way to go out, but there were pockets of promise from a contingent of young Tigers headlined by Lachie Galvin. It may take more than Jarome Luai’s arrival to put the club in contention for its first finals series since 2011 but the embers of improvement are flickering away.