The opening weekend of the 2024 NRL playoffs projected an inevitable grand final showdown after two comprehensive Qualifying Final victories, while the subsequent elimination showdowns produced a couple of out-and-out barnburners decided inside the last 10 minutes.
Can anyone alter the Penrith-Melbourne collision course? Here’s how the finals landscape looks with three weeks of the season remaining.
Shouldering the load
A pair of superstar shoulder injuries dominated the build-up to week one of the finals, but Nathan Cleary and Tom Trbojevic passed gruelling tests on their compromised joints to inspire their teams to contrasting – but equalling impressive – post-season victories.
Cleary was near-perfect in his first match in a month and only his 11th appearance of 2024.
Playing within himself, the halfback maestro nevertheless laid on three tries in Penrith’s 30-10 demolition of Sydney Roosters, and kicked and defended magnificently throughout.
An unprecedented third Clive Churchill Medal beckons for Cleary, who undoubtedly has another couple of gears in reserve.
Trbojevic’s afternoon was considerably more torrid in Manly’s epic 24-22 win over Canterbury.
But what could have unravelled in ‘Changa’ Langlands-like infamy ended in triumph, with needled-up ‘Turbo’ sparking the Sea Eagles’ go-ahead try for the ages in the 71st minute after appearing off the pace for much of the contest.
The AC joint injury is clearly hampering the No.1, however, and there must be a question mark over whether the Sea Eagles can produce another do-or-die victory against the Roosters in Saturday’s blockbuster semi with Trbojevic battling on at less than full capacity.
Early statements from Panthers and Storm
The narrative prior to the playoffs was the top teams were not as strong as last year and the gap to the second-tier title contenders was considerably closer.
But Penrith and Melbourne looked every bit as ruthless, dominant and destined for a grand final showdown as the Panthers and Broncos did at this stage in 2023.
The Panthers’ first-half onslaught to lead Sydney Roosters 24-0 at the break was as relentless as it gets – and terrifyingly reminiscent of their threepeat level.
The Storm would have been unsatisfied with a 14-10 halftime scoreline after overwhelmingly having the better of the first 40 minutes, but they laid down their premiership credentials by scoring 23 unanswered points in the second stanza.
Melbourne’s big guns led the way – with Cam Munster scoring in the second minute, Harry Grant bagging a hat-trick and Jahrome Hughes toying with the Sharks – but yet again unsung heroes such as Josh King and Trent Loiero were instrumental to the 37-10 beatdown.
Penrith and Melbourne are just $1.25 and $1.30, respectively, to make the grand final, with the Panthers ($2.30) inching back ahead of the Storm ($2.40) in the premiership market.
Acid on No.7s as straight-sets exits loom
Soundly beaten all over the park on the qualifying final stage, a harsh spotlight was inevitably shone upon Sydney Roosters’ and Cronulla’s subpar halfbacks.
The big-match millstone Nicho Hynes carries only got heavier after the Sharks’ seventh consecutive finals defeat, struggling to have any positive impact against the Storm after helping set up his side’s first try.
Twice tackled on the last and failing to find touch from a penalty, Hynes’ display genuinely begged the question whether the Sharks are a better team with Braydon Trindall and Daniel Atkinson combining in the halves.
Roosters utility Sandon Smith was on a hiding to nothing in just his ninth run-on NRL appearance at Penrith and much more was needed from three-time premiership winner Luke Keary to ease the pressure on him.
But Smith struggled with the fundamentals in a difficult assignment, producing an erratic kicking game, multiple errors and key missed tackles.
The Sharks and Roosters both head into this weekend as $1.65 favourites in their respective sudden-death assignments – but the ability of Hynes and Smith to match it with respective opposite numbers Jake Clifford and Daly Cherry-Evans shapes as a decisive factor in both matches.
Cowboys ride their luck
One of the most questionably credentialled fifth-placed finishers in the NRL era hosting a modestly-performed team that Bradbury-ed their way into eighth, North Queensland Cowboys were potentially only a slightly-too-low Kalyn Ponga pass away from a week one elimination.
But the Cowboys, who had fought back from a 12-4 halftime deficit, made the most of their 69th-minute reprieve when the scores were locked at 16-all.
A fortuitous ricochet try to Reuben Cotter, the sin-binning of Leo Thompson and a Tom Dearden match-sealer with a minute left handed the inscrutable Cowboys a 28-16 victory.
Todd Payten’s side is laced with game-breaking talent, but the fact 32-year-old winger Kyle Feldt was widely regarded as their best player on the night indicated much more will be needed from their key men on a tough semi-final road trip to take on Cronulla this Friday.
As for the Knights, they can take heart from their late-season rally and brave effort in Townsville – but the stark reality is this team will never rise beyond the middle of the pack without putting more quality around the scintillating Ponga.
Sea Eagles soar in stone cold classic
Manly and Canterbury pieced together one of the great NRL finals matches of modern times on Sunday, assisted by a baying 50,000-strong crowd at Accor Stadium that mirrored the on-field intensity.
Viliame Kikau’s blockbusting first half and counterpart Haumole Olakau’atu’s excellent response, Luke Brooks made a marvellous, long-awaited post-season debut.
Elsewhere, Lehi Hopoate produced flashes of brilliance in a rollercoaster afternoon and marquee men DCE, ‘Turbo’ and ‘Critta’ standing up in big moments.
Reuben Garrick’s clutch goalkicking and Matt Burton’s booming boot coming up gutwrenchingly short.
A smattering of fiery moments and, of course, Tolu Koula’s already-iconic match-winning try.
But in a stunning encounter decided by the barest of margins, the emotional gap between the teams at fulltime could not have been wider.
The Sea Eagles’ triumph was their best since a prelim upset against Souths catapulted them into the 2013 grand final, while the Bulldogs’ first finals appearance in eight years represented an excruciating lost opportunity at the end of a watershed campaign after twice building 10-point leads.
How far can Anthony Seibold’s seventh-placed charges take this chance?
Certainly they are more than capable of knocking over the depleted Roosters on Saturday, while their mix of grit and firepower could be the recipe for a boilover against the Storm in a looming preliminary final grudge match.