Football’s night of nights takes centre stage on Monday night, with the honour of being named the Brownlow Medallist a possibility for a plethora of elite footballers.
Ahead of the ceremony, we’ve put together our best tips in what’s set to be a thrilling 2024 Brownlow Medal count.
Outright Winner
Tip: Patrick Cripps to win the 2024 AFL Brownlow Medal @ $2.40
He did it in 2022, and there’s every chance he will walk out with the medal in 2024.
Patrick Cripps has put together a stellar season and Carlton’s consistency of strong form leading up to Round 16 will place Cripps in a good position to bank home a few votes in the back end of the year.
In terms of consistency, Cripps is the safest bet here. There weren’t more than two games in a row where he wasn’t in contention for at least a single vote, and more often than not, the games he will poll in will be two votes or higher.
What works in Cripps’ favour is the lack of vote stealers alongside him, with the likes of Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Adam Cerra all lacking consistency.
Expect Charlie Curnow to poll the occasional vote in the first half of the year, but it’s unlikely the key forward will take three votes on many occasions.
Deciding Rounds: 12,17, 24
These three rounds hold the greatest weight in creating separation in the vote count, with Cripps a key part in all three games, but either on the end of a loss or some other teammates playing a better game.
Cripps was able to rack it up but was often damaging with his disposal which places him in a strong position to receive full attention from an umpiring perspective.
Top 5 Bets
Cripps’ closest competitor would have to be Nick Daicos, who had no trouble racking up the footy each week and was often Collingwood’s best contributor.
Instantly finishing outside the top eight works against him, with a poor start and finish to the season for his side possibly proving costly for Nick.
Although the Pies finished poorly, Nick didn’t and should come home strong with multiple three-vote games, almost a certainty to poll three in the final round if things are tight.
Deciding Rounds: 1, 7, 24
The most crucial area for Nick is Opening Round to Round 7, where he was unable to make any dominant impact, which could set him up to chase down the leaders for the majority of the night.
More often than not, his general ball-winning presence will get him votes regardless.
Tip: Nick Daicos to finish top 5 @ $1.02
Marcus Bontempelli is due to win a Brownlow Medal anytime soon, but the Dogs lack of consistency at times might hurt his chances yet again.
Alongside that, Adam Treloar’s outstanding form will steal quite a few votes off Bont in the middle of the year.
What works well in Bontempelli’s favour is the amount of three-vote games he’s almost guaranteed himself, with big performances after the bye.
When the Bulldogs lost, it was often by big margins, which decreases his chance of sneaking a vote in a loss.
Deciding Rounds: 23,24
These two rounds might decide Bontempelli’s fate at the end of the night, with two big wins, but with the possibility of being shut out by Sam Darcy’s seven goals against North Melbourne, and Lachie Whitfield’s 42 disposals for the Giants in the final round.
You’d sense that Bont would need at least one three-vote game to have a chance of snicking it at the finish.
Tip: Marcus Bontempelli to finish top 5 @ $1.55
Lachie Neale is a product of consistency in his football and a good system at the Lions that finds him the footy at least 20 times each week.
Much like Nick Daicos, a slow start will decrease his chance of banking votes in the early stages of the night, but he’ll likely come home strong with some big performances.
Neale isn’t expected to start polling well until after Round 9, which by then will require at least five three-vote games to ensure the Medal or top three.
The Lions seven game winning streak in the middle of the season will certainly shape the leaderboard and Neale will be on the end of a good number of votes.
Deciding Rounds: 16, 23
One close win and one close loss, Neale will be battling for votes against Josh Dunkley’s 32 disposals against the Dees, and Nick Daicos’ 25 disposals and a goal in their loss to the Pies, a vital game in the count.
Tip: Lachie Neale to finish top five @ $1.35
Isaac Heeney is the final player well and truly in sight for a top five finish.
Barring his suspension in the middle of the season, it was an ideal 2024 campaign, with the flying Swan an early leader in the tally.
Heeney’s extremely strong start to the year will have him in the top three for most of the night, but he’ll be expected to drop votes quite a lot in the back end of the year.
Sydney is cursed with talent, and the likes of Errol Gulden and Chad Warner will most certainly steal votes off Heeney.
Tip: Isaac Heeney to finish top five @ $1.50
Team Bets
Sydney Swans Team Total Votes Under 100.5 @ $1.87
They’re a superstar team, but the Swans shouldn’t expect to poll too heavily outside of their three midfield guns Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden, and Chad Warner.
They’re often stealing votes off each other in big performances, and with likely leader for the Swans Isaac Heeney at the end of the night losing votes in the back end, it won’t help their push for 100.
As well as this, the Swans don’t have any pressing cases for key defenders or forwards to be earning votes, with Joel Amartey’s nine-goal game against Adelaide the only glaring exception.
Hawthorn Team Total Votes Under 81.5 @ $1.87
The Hawks surged in the back half of the year, but it was a product of team performances.
Being such a balanced side with a plethora of ball winners, it’s hard to see any individual Hawk polling over 20 votes.
Expect the likes of Jai Newcombe and Will Day to lead the voting with heavy-lifting performances throughout the season.
Ultimately, the Hawks 0-5 start to the year and a well-balanced back end won’t see them poll as one of the higher teams on the night.
Extra Markets
Most 3 Vote Games – Nick Daicos @ $2.25
It’s plain and simple with Nick, when he gets going, he racks it up quite a lot, and it’s unmissable at every centre stoppage.
Such is a player with Nick‘s class, he’s one of the more likely players to pull three votes in a losing game unlike Patrick Cripps or Lachie Neale.
A season average of 30 disposals will ultimately be the deciding factor in most games where his performance is just that extra bit above the rest.
Player to poll in most games – Patrick Cripps @ $2.50
Carlton’s season wasn’t the ending they would have liked, but Cripps’ consistent season will see him poll in nearly 75% of the games.
What works in his favour is the fact that Carlton didn’t often lose by more than three goals which will consistently see him in contention for at least one or two votes.
His fast start and big finish to 2024 will prove vital in his chances of walking away with the Brownlow medal.
To Poll A Vote – Mitch Georgiades @ $1.65
Even during Port Adelaide’s worst part of the year, Georgiades was always at the forefront of Port Adelaide’s scoring.
The strong marking forward nearly scored a goal in every game this season.
His five goals against the Western Bulldogs or four goals against Sydney may be the games in which he finds a vote.