Eat, sleep, Chiefs, repeat.
It’s a simple formula, one that 95 percent of people are quite frankly fed up with.
Blame the refs, blame the script writers, or blame the Bills inability to convert on fourth down. Whatever it might be, the fact remains the same: Chiefs Kingdom is hoping to become the first team to claim three straight Super Bowls.
It might be boring, and the league is certainly testing our patience at this point. But at the very least, we can (try) to make some money on Monday’s big game, and we’re here to show you how.
Best Bet
Like it or not, one score games and the Chiefs have gone hand in hand this NFL season with 11 of their 18 matchups being decided by a touchdown or less.
With that in mind, the margin market is where you’ll want to spend your hard-earned, particularly against a Philly defence that has feasted on turnovers and held two of its last three opposing quarterbacks to under 300 yards.
A low-scoring game from the Eagles is also on the cards, unlike the last time these two sides met to decide Lombardi. While Patrick Mahomes can make the freakish look vanilla, Steve Spagnuolo’s defence is arguably the biggest deciding factor.
If you’re a Bills fan, you might want to stop reading, but it’s worth remembering the Chiefs forced two turnovers on downs against Buffalo on their final few possessions during the AFC Championship game.
Spags’ blitz packages have been the most underrated part of this Chiefs dynasty, particularly in key spots where he isn’t afraid to dial up pressure on fourth down and the like. The Eagles are built to combat pressure up front, but we’re yet to see a quarterback or an opposing coach come up with a solution to Kansas City’s pass rush.
Tips: Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.50, Under 49 Total Points
First Touchdown
You’d think teams would shy away from trick plays with a Super Bowl ring on the line, but that hasn’t been the case over the last decade. From the Philly Special, to last year’s Jauan Jennings-Christian McCaffrey hook up, teams aren’t afraid to dig deep in their bag of tricks.
While neither of those two plays were made by the Chiefs, they aren’t exactly strangers to calling quirky plays on the big stage either. Their “corndog” motion caught Philly’s corners napping twice in the fourth quarter two years earlier, revealing the Eagles’ tendency to drift over and defend the middle of the field.
You could argue Kansas City’s wide receiver room isn’t quite what it was in 2023, but what they lack in deep threats, they more than make up for in terms of options at the line of scrimmage.
Only a fortnight ago, we saw the Chiefs get fancy for their first touchdown against the Bills as Kareem Hunt put up six on a run-pass option on a two tight end set.
That same play could have gone to Mahomes, Kelce, or Noah Gray, but with Hunt scoring in all seven playoff games he’s started, he might be the safest option.
Tip: Kareem Hunt @ $9.00
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Averaging a tick over 11 yards a catch to go with 20 touchdowns in the postseason, Travis Kelce is a must-have on your bet slip, plain and simple.
Outside of the logic that “he’s due”, Isaih Pacheco is also an interesting option when you factor in, he rushed for 76 yards and a score in Super Bowl LVII.
Elsewhere, one of he more exotic options includes the Chiefs’ D/ST. While I gave Spags a ton of love earlier, Kansas City’s special teams is another conversation entirely.
Long-time coordinator Dave Toub is one of the masterminds behind Andy Reid’s operation, and it was on full display in the Divisional Round when the Chiefs opened the game with a monster kick return before later blocking a field goal.
Outside of the fact Kansas City punted only twice against the Bills – another credit to the offence – Kansas City’s special teams unit doesn’t give up and cheap yards. Whether that amounts to a touchdown is the question, but boy would it be deserving in what might be Toubs’ final game with the team.
Tip: Travis Kelce @ $2.20, Isiah Pacheco @ $3.40, Chiefs D/ST @ $7.75
MVP
Is the MVP award an open and shut case for three-time winner Patrick Mahomes?
Saquon Barkley is a genuine threat, but even though Mahomes has been a little quiet on the yardage front, it’s important to note he’s thrown only three interceptions over his last 10 postseason games.
If a couple of those aforementioned trick plays work out, Mahomes’ case will only grow stronger, especially if Jalen Hurts has a typically quiet postseason game like he’s been prone to.
Tip: Patrick Mahomes @ $2.00