A relatively nondescript NRL Round 6 was spiced up by big upsets from the Dolphins and Sydney Roosters, the bizarre Spencer Leniu-Johnthan Thurston blow-up, and attacking masterclasses from high-flying Canberra and Melbourne.
Meanwhile, St George Illawarra, Cronulla, North Queensland and Wests Tigers boosted their 2025 finals credentials with valuable victories in mid-table encounters.
Upsets, blowout and unders
The NRL’s 2025 trend of head-to-head upsets continued in Round 6, with the Dolphins (+7.5) compounding Penrith’s slump 30-12, Sydney Roosters (+10.5) turning around an opening-round drubbing at the hands of Brisbane 26-16, and Wests Tigers (+5.5) trouncing Newcastle 20-4 away.
Of the 48 matches so far this season, 21 have been won by the outright underdog.
Tight contests were in short supply this weekend, however, with six matches decided by double-digits and Cronulla’s 24-18 defeat of Manly in Perth the only fixture featuring a margin of a converted try or less.
St George Illawarra racked up its second win of the season against Gold Coast to the tune of 38-16, Canberra carved out its biggest victory over Parramatta since 1996, a 50-12 Darwin demolition, and Melbourne made it 17 straight against the Warriors 42-14 – after leading 36-0 at halftime.
History piling up against Panthers
If Penrith recover to win a fifth consecutive premiership, it will surely rank as the greatest achievement of the club’s iconic streak.
But never in the past six years have the Panthers seemed so far away from lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy, sinking to a 1-5 record courtesy of perhaps their most jarring defeat yet: 30-12 to a Dolphins side that was winless before the previous weekend.
The Panthers are the first defending premiers to lose five in a row since St George Illawarra’s late-season slump in 2011, while they are the first champs to drop five straight in the first half of a campaign since Brisbane’s stunning 1999 drop-off.
No team has recovered from 1-5 to win the competition; few have salvaged a finals berth from this tricky spot.
The Panthers – who have conceded 22-plus points in every game so far – nevertheless still lurk on the fourth line of title betting at $15.
Will the real Broncos please stand up?
Brisbane is nicely placed in third with a 4-2 record and are rated Melbourne’s biggest threat at $5 in the premiership stakes.
But we’re still waiting for the Broncos to replicate the blistering form that garnered a half-century against Sydney Roosters in Round 1.
Since then, Michael Maguire’s charges have been rolled in Canberra, recorded a trio of patchy home wins over North Queensland, the Dolphins and a depleted Wests Tigers, and, on Friday, crashed to a 26-16 defeat to the battling Roosters at Suncorp Stadium.
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The Broncos’ next run of matches – leaving Brisbane for the first time in five weeks to face the smarting Warriors in Auckland, hosting currently unbeaten Canterbury and facing a desperate Penrith in Magic Round – provides a chance to stamp top-four credentials…or drift into the mid-table muddle.
Raiders, Storm put foot on the throat
Canberra is still struggling to gain respect in the premiership market – sitting on the eighth line at $34 – but Ricky Stuart’s Raiders continue to firm as a likely finalist and a genuine top-four chance.
On the back of their try from the end of the earth to beat Cronulla on the bell a week earlier, the pace-laden Raiders’ long-range attacking potency was again on display in a 50-12 beatdown of Parramatta in Darwin.
Benefitting from the platform laid by 200-metre-plus front-rowers Corey Horsburgh and Joe Tapine, the likes of Hudson Young, Kaeo Weekes and Sebastian Kris had a field day. A penalty tap trick shot with three minutes left produced a 50-metre try and typified the Raiders’ flair.
Premiership favourite Melbourne ($2.50), meanwhile, remain the NRL’s most ruthless team, obliterating the Warriors in a six-tries-to-none first half in hot AAMI Park conditions before easing off the gas in a 42-14 victory.
Xavier Coates and Jack Howarth were particularly unstoppable as the Storm extended their remarkable hoodoo over the Warriors.
The Storm are averaging almost 37 points per game, with only fast-starting Canterbury seemingly capable of denying them a six minor premiership in 10 seasons.
Toothless Knights fading fast
Newcastle’s early-season form has channelled the club’s dour foundation team of the late-1980s, struggling to put points on the board to a historic degree.
The Knights’ insipid 20-4 defeat to Wests Tigers in front of a packed house at McDonald Jones Stadium – only getting on the board in the dying moments – continued a eye-opening trend.
A team blessed with the talents of Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best has managed just 9.2 points per game across their first five matches.
More than half of their tries in 2025 were scored in their 26-12 win over the Dolphins in Round 2, while Fletcher Sharpe’s late try against the Tigers saved them from back-to-back shutout losses.
On the last line of title betting ($67), the 2-3 Knights host Cronulla in Round 7 then head to Christchurch to take on the Warriors on Anzac Day – with coach Adam O’Brien racing the clock to rectify his team’s offensive woes.