The UFC Welterweight division has a new champion after UFC 315 in Canada on Sunday with Jack Della now the king of the division and the rest chasing.
Two of those men will headline the card inside the UFC Apex this weekend when Gilbert Burns takes on Michael Morales.
The Main Event isn’t the only quality fight on the card and we’ve taken an in depth look at the three main contests from a betting perspective below.
Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
Gilbert Burns was one of Jack Della’s victims on his way to ultimate UFC glory when he beat the Brazilian via KO back in March 2024.
Burns enters this fight on the back of three straight losses however the quality of opponent cannot be underestimated.
He lost decisions to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady either side of his loss to the now champion JDM but his body of work over a long period cannot be denied.
Michael Morales has earned a shot against a top ranked opponent because of an undefeated pro MMA career where he has amassed 17 wins from as many fights.
He won a UFC contract through Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021 and has won all five fights in the promotion since then.
A decision win over Aussie Jake Matthews was followed by a first round knockout over UFC stalwart Neil Magny last year and Morales enters this fight as a very short priced favourite.
At 38 years of age, Burns’ best years are beyond him but he’s a durable guy who has a skillset that Morales has yet faced and that is why I’ve looked for the value in this match up.
½ Unit Gilbert Burns To Win @ $6.00
1 Unit Fight To Go The Distance @ $2.90
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
Despite just one win in his last six fights, Paul Craig remains a fan favourite not only because of his incredible BJJ skill set but because he is willing to fight the toughest guy available to him at any given moment.
His three fight losing streak includes some of the divisions best including Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho and Bo Nickal and things don’t get easier for him here.
There can be no doubt his striking has improved in the last few years, proving he can adapt to the situation as necessary and we can’t forget he has a TKO win over Jamahal Hill although he did break his arm to get it!
Rodolfo Bellato has a pro MMA record of 12-2-1 after he managed a draw in his UFC debut against Jimmy Crute earlier this year.
He has four submission wins to his name but it would be a mistake to take this fight to the ground against such an accomplished grappler and I’m predicting a feeling out process from both fighters to start the fight.
3 Units Fight To Start Round 2 @ $1.75
Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos
There is always a sneaky good fight on these fight night cards that provide more entertainment than anticipated and this is my pick for the Apex on Sunday.
Sodiq Yusuff was headed for the top of the division after six wins from his first seven UFC fights.
He has now lost back to back fights against Edson Barboza and Diego Lopes which has put a halt on his title aspirations for now.
Mairon Santos has just the single loss on his professional MMA resume and after winning a contract through The Ultimate Fighter Series he has won both fights in the octagon.
A second round KO win was followed by a split decision victory earlier this year.
This is a big step up in class and although Sodiq Yusuff comes into the fight off a couple of losses, he will be eager to get back in the win column with a victory.
The market has got this one around the wrong way in my opinion and that is why I’ve landed with the following bet.
2 Units Sodiq Yuseff To Win @ $2.15