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5 Lessons Learned – NRL Finals Week 1

5 Lessons Learned – NRL Finals Week 1

The opening round of the 2025 NRL finals series was one for the ages, featuring four seesawing thrillers that culminated in a golden point epic already being branded as one of the greatest post-season matches of all time.  

Check out the highs and lows from a phenomenal rugby league weekend.  

Walsh lives by the sword 

Reece Walsh’s rollercoaster season appeared to have taken a diabolical turn in the 52nd minute of Sunday’s qualifying final, sin-binned for a rush-of-blood headbutt on Canberra firebrand Hudson Young with Brisbane down 18-12.  

By the time he and Young returned from the bin – and with Brisbane captain Pat Carrigan having copped 10 minutes for a high shot soon afterwards – Walsh looked at a scoreboard that read 28-12 in the home side’s favour.  

Walsh could have capitulated. Instead, he etched his name into finals folklore with an astonishing burst of clutch brilliance dripping with the spirit of Lewis, Johns, Lockyer, Cleary et al.  

A dazzling 40-metre solo try, an exquisite pass to put Josiah Karapani over and his second 40/20 of the match to set the platform for Gehamat Shibasaki’s try slashed the deficit to two points.  

The Broncos fullback’s blistering response in front of a baying Canberra crowd appeared to have fallen agonisingly short when his two-point field goal attempt hit the cross-bar and a subsequent last-gasp attempt was charged down, but a penalty from the latter allowed him to send it to extra-time.  

Walsh seemed certain to be the Broncos’ go-to as a modern classic wended through a dramatic added 10 minutes and into golden point, but there was a long-term redemption narrative waiting to be explored.  

Prodigal son Ben Hunt, a few weeks shy of 10 years since shelling the golden point kick-off in a grand final, stepped up to bury a 39-metre field goal in the 94th minute and send the Broncos into a home preliminary final.  

The caveat ahead of a Suncorp Stadium showdown against either Canterbury or Penrith is Walsh and Carrigan could be facing bans for their second-half misdemeanours.  

Nevertheless, the Broncos have moved into the second line of premiership betting at $3.50…but there’s no question they can’t win it all without the mercurial Walsh.    

Pezet dispenser  

Melbourne regained title favouritism at $3.00 after a gripping 26-18 qualifying final defeat of Canterbury, which came on the back of an ultra-classy display from a young halfback playing just his 18th NRL game in only his second run-on appearance of 2025.  

Jonah Pezet received the late call-up to start in his maiden finals outing – and played with the poise of a veteran No.7.  

Setting the tone with a lovely try assist to put Eliesa Katoa over for an early try, Pezet also drilled a 40/20 and came up with a tremendous try-saver on Matt Burton in the first half.  

Pezet’s emergence as the answer to Jahrome Hughes’ injury setback freed up Cameron Munster to play a more customary adlib role, as well as allowing Tyran Wishart to revert to an invaluable supersub role – and spear through for a go-ahead try with 15 minutes to go.  

The least experienced spine player left in the finals now shapes as one of the most important.  

Sharks find finals bite 

The sleepers of the NRL finals picture, Cronulla became the only underdog to claim victory in week one – and now commands respect after a 20-10 elimination defeat of the dangerous Sydney Roosters.  

The Sharks had won just two of their last 12 finals matches since winning the comp in 2016, but they displayed consummate September grit to blunt a Roosters offence that averaged over 36 points in their previous five games.  

The Tricolours’ international middle forward trio of Spencer Leniu, Lindsay Collins and Naufahu Whyte was held to just 262 metres between them as Addin Fonua-Blake, Toby Rudolf and co. claimed a decisive points victory up front.  

Meanwhile, Braydon Trindall picked up where he left off in the 2024 finals, laying on two tries and effectively relegating Nicho Hynes into a support role.   

The under-the-radar Sharks’ performance was an ideal platform for their massive Canberra road trip this Saturday, where they are $2.55 underdogs at the start of the week. Craig Fitzgibbon’s side are $13 in the premiership market.  

Panthers need another level  

Penrith did was required to survive an elimination final trip to Auckland – but they didn’t do much more than that in a 24-8 victory over a flailing Warriors outfit that featured more than a little rub of the green.  

The Panthers led 12-8 (after a Brad Schneider try that looked dubiously like a double movement) and were losing the arm-wrestle as the match approached the last 15 minutes.  

A freakishly fortuitous bounce following a clearing kick from deep, then Grant Atkins’ inability to detect a blatant forward pass, saw Casey McLean cross for a back-breaking try against the run of play. The Warriors started chasing points and produced an error to serve up an 80-metre sealer to Brian To’o. 

The Panthers enjoyed 56 percent possession yet rarely looked comfortable and made only three line-breaks as a threadbare, outmatched Warriors line-up that made 16 errors took the fight to them.  

A fifth straight premiership will require a step up to get over Canterbury in front of a packed house at Accor Stadium on Sunday – and another gear change to roll firepower-laden Brisbane in a potential preliminary final at Suncorp Stadium.  

Penrith is on the third line of betting, however, at $7.50 as the great dynasty looks to create more history by taking out the title from seventh.  

Hurdles await Raiders, Bulldogs  

Of the 26 top-four teams to have lost qualifying finals since the current NRL finals format was readopted in 2012, only six have gone out in straight sets via a week two semi-final loss.  

But Canberra and Canterbury have some psychological and physical hurdles to overcome to regroup and earn a preliminary final berth.  

The emotional toll of the Raiders’ gut-wrenching loss – blowing a big lead, then celebrating victory twice only to be snapped back to reality by the Bunker – is a heavy one to overcome in six days for Ricky Stuart’s youthful squad.  

They host the Sharks this weekend, who ironically are the only team to lose a finals match in golden point after 10 minutes of extra-time – at home to North Queensland in 2022.  

Ominously, they were trounced 38-12 by Souths a week later, the only top-four team to bow out in the semis in the past four seasons.  

The Bulldogs were arguably the most impressive of the week one losers, pushing the Storm to the brink at AAMI Park despite losing captain and strike centre Stephen Crichton with the match only 19 minutes old. 

But an enormous semi-final showdown awaits against a Penrith side on a 13-match finals winning streak; Canterbury hasn’t won a post-season match since 2015.  

The Bulldogs will have to do it without Crichton, while playmaker Toby Sexton – who was superb after coming off the bench following the backline reshuffle – is in doubt with a sternum injury.  

Bronson Xerri and possibly Marcelo Montoya are in the frame to bolster an injury-hit backline, but ex-Panthers champion Crichton is arguably Canterbury’s most important player…and potentially an insurmountable loss for a Bulldogs side that has opened as a $3.20 outsider for Saturday’s blockbuster. 

The Raiders have drifted to $7.50 for the title, while the Bulldogs are on the last line at $23.